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Macro Meditation #2

Wow. Did you enjoy the Complexity episode? I went full zen on you. Deep breathing, tapping into the god-like forces within. Sounds crazy, right? Except it’s not. You are the god. The universe doesn’t revolve around some external queen bee or king. Nope, it’s you. But modern society? It’s been locking that realization away for centuries, creating gatekeepers, the constant buzz of traffic on the mental highway that runs through your mind. The incessant voices that keep you hustling, second-guessing, never questioning the system. 

That’s why I lean into serendipity and synchronicity. I’ve found creative rebirth through breathing, through breaking on through to the other side. It’s about reconnecting to the magic kingdom within. Forget the false gods of Wall Street, religion or the carnival of politics. I don’t care who won the election, both sides are just the hapless lions in The Wizard of Oz, prowling around, but without the courage to challenge the status quo.

Speaking of which, let’s talk markets. Did you know the S&P has gone up nearly 60-fold since 1980? Fortunes have been made by the money changers, the witches of the east, Wall Street Barrons. Asset prices have soared on the back of globally suppressed labour costs and perpetually low rates. But for the average Joe? Stagnation. Real wages flatlined decades ago, communities frayed. And yet, we cheer every tick higher on the stock index, oblivious to the cost.

I want you to be courageous my curious mind warriors. To have the kind of courage that questions, that disrupts. The kind of courage you find when you strip away the noise, quiet the mind, and breathe deeply. 

So, as I close out this meditation, let me remind you: it’s okay to be a little crazy. Embrace the complexity. Be curious. Be bold. And most importantly, keep being acid capitalists. 

Hugh

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Macro Meditation #2

Wow. Did you enjoy the Complexity episode? I went full zen on you. Deep breathing, tapping into the god-like forces within. Sounds crazy, right? Except it’s not. You are the god. The universe doesn’t revolve around some external queen bee or king. Nope, it’s you. But modern society? It’s been locking that realization away for centuries, creating gatekeepers, the constant buzz of traffic on the mental highway that runs through your mind. The incessant voices that keep you hustling, second-guessing, never questioning the system.

That’s why I lean into serendipity and synchronicity. I’ve found creative rebirth through breathing, through breaking on through to the other side. It’s about reconnecting to the magic kingdom within. Forget the false gods of Wall Street, religion or the carnival of politics. I don’t care who won the election, both sides are just the hapless lions in The Wizard of Oz, prowling around, but without the courage to challenge the status quo.

Speaking of which, let’s talk markets. Did you know the S&P has gone up nearly 60-fold since 1980? Fortunes have been made by the money changers, the witches of the east, Wall Street Barrons. Asset prices have soared on the back of globally suppressed labour costs and perpetually low rates. But for the average Joe? Stagnation. Real wages flatlined decades ago, communities frayed. And yet, we cheer every tick higher on the stock index, oblivious to the cost.

I want you to be courageous my curious mind warriors. To have the kind of courage that questions, that disrupts. The kind of courage you find when you strip away the noise, quiet the mind, and breathe deeply.

So, as I close out this meditation, let me remind you: it’s okay to be a little crazy. Embrace the complexity. Be curious. Be bold. And most importantly, keep being acid capitalists.

Hugh

Support the show

⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️

https://www.patreon.com/HughHendry
https://hughhendry.substack.com
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https://blancbleustbarts.com
https://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial

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Welcome back, my enlightened audience, to another episode of Acid Therapy, where yours truly, The Acid Capitalist, delves once more into the mental maelstrom with Denise Shull's guidance.

This episode serves as a serenade to the chaos of existence, exploring a myriad of topics from the rollercoaster of my personal life to the philosophical musings that keep the midnight oil burning. Denise skillfully prods and pokes at the fabric of my psyche, unraveling threads of my past, my dance with financial peril, and my unwavering quest to find meaning in the madness. From the stress of nearing completion on a villa project to childhood recollections shaping my adult anxieties, each moment leads us closer to unraveling the enigma of The Acid Capitalist.

So, brace for impact; this one cuts deep.

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This week we have a Shared Confession. Former macro hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, is joined by Dr. Angus Fletcher (Phd, Yale) , a neuroscientist and professor of Shakespeare. Angus rocks ! His latest book, Creative  Thinking, was written especially for US special operatives engaging with live risk. We discuss the carry over principals for all wannabe hedge fund investors. This is hedge fund bootcamp for narrative warriors. The pursuit of linguistics and rogue imagination over data; the rejection of logic. Data predicts yesterday. We suggest a non logical mode of intelligence that dares to see tomorrow. We explain how to react at the speed of life. If you can open yourself up to all the points of perspective when everyone else is rooted in the past then maybe you might just come to find yourself "in the moment". We discuss the principals for seeing the future. Brains don't need spreadsheets but exceptional data. Chaos is brain food.

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Ex macro hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, again invites his former investment partner, Tom Roderick, to review the global macro landscape. This week Tom discusses his new macro essay, China's Zodiac Doomsday Clock. Hugh becomes nostalgic for March 2009 and his slow train journey to Wuhan which revealed abundant evidence of China's property overbuilding 12 years ago. 
Tom explains why their China blow-up fund never made them a billion dollars. The answer was written in the stars. China's wise men acknowledged Confucius - wise man's clock is slower. Beijing's bureaucrats socialised risk and relied upon rapid gdp growth, urbanisation and population growth to remedy the situation.  
The Chinese zodiac has 12 characters like our own system but takes 12 years, not months, to travel the galaxy and back. The gonzo investor shakes his head. A question of faulty time keeping ? 
The boys move on and consider whether inflation is deflationary ? This is macro conjecture for grown-ups and Tom asks why investors never consider debt levels to wealth rather than GDP ? The episode concludes with the contest between real and nominal US Treasury yields...which is the centre of our financial universe ?

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https://blancbleustbarts.com
https://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial

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Former macro hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, again invites his former investment colleague, Tom Roderick, to review the global macro landscape.  
This week they argue over inflation. Hugh is sceptical, Tom less so. The gonzo investor rails against the media’s shock and outrage on witnessing higher prices. “We closed the world for more than a year and then jolted it back to life with the greatest ever cash incentive to buy...why are we surprised that some prices have surged?” bellows Hugh from his cave in St Barts.  
The boys consider a means to overcoming their differences and suggest that the Fed should take note. Tom has an ingenious idea – The Rule of 2 %. That the Fed should only announce a hike in rates should the 10-year Treasury yield breach 2%. But could the Fed ever admit to its lack of omnipotence in the rate setting arena even though the bond market always calls it right? Tom then explains why macro managers own gold in their hedge funds - hint, it’s the cheapest inflation hedge. 
This is macro conjecture for grown-ups and part I concludes with a review of a recent and revelatory thread by Michael Pettis, a prominent macro economist. Does China’s undervalued exchange rate and / or low wages export deflation onto an unsuspecting West? The boys de-construct the logic to confirm that yes, it is trade policy and not interest rates that govern our financial universe. Unless surplus nations mend their ways, risk-free rates will likely remain pinned to the floor and cautious investors will continue to forgo maximising future returns in favour of avoiding even greater losses.  

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Hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, again invites his former colleague, Tom Roderick, who manages macro at Trium in London, to review the revelatory and impending bust of China's legendary Evergrande Property. Macro hasn't been seen in Chinese waters for almost a decade. A strong currency with a positive carry and a stock market seemingly impervious to shocking state interventions has ensured a lack of willing naysayers. The Acid Capitalist, Hugh, and Tom, explains how China's property companies were the safest stocks in the global sector owing to their ability to transfer risk quickly. That the least risky companies are now in jeopardy does not bode well especially as Chinese property, relative to household wealth, is 4x greater than in the US. The boys consider a bull market in fear where sovereign Chinese bonds will supplant property as the de facto collateral position. They can conceive of a steeply inverted yield in a land more accustomed to wearing flats and they ask whether flaunting opulence and the mania for luxury may not sit well with the modern creed of common prosperity. Buckle up! This is macro conjecture for grown-ups.

Chapters:
00:00 Shared Confessions China's Geometric Risk Taking
02:45 Why Macro didn't Short the Red Lines
05:15 Why the $ is red Cabbage in Beijing
10:55 China Property Market was Risk Free
15:35 Fechner and the Geometry of Chinese GDP Growth
17:25 Why Now ? And the Grapes of Wrath
21:30 FX chart, Mad Max Leverage Internal or External ?
26:45 Everything is Macro
32:40 Is there a China Macro Trade with no Tears for Fears?
37:35 China the Land Of Flat Yield Curves
40.45 Stay At the Money with Your Strikes
42:00 Apathy is the Catalyst for Perplexing & Engaging Trades
46:15 Common Prosperity Questions Luxury Valuations

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Hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, invites former investment partner, Tom Roderick, to dive under the hood and examine how one becomes a hedge fund manager. They revisit the summer of 2005, the S&P has been marooned for 2 years moving sideways as the economy and corporate profitability improve. What would an aspiring young manager do?

Hedge fund pirate Hugh Hendry chronicles the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. Hugh's discussions with other though leaders are deployed as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he's thinking and why in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabe can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights. 

This week we find a rather pallid Hugh cursing his demons from the night before and his newfound love of Pickle-Ball and tequila. Tom quizzes him on why he was 75% net long and not 35% or 120% long? And how did he size risk positions? How did he seek to optimize his portfolio in a world before the rule books had been written. Was this risk taking on the hoof, a form of dopamine bingo, with creativity the deciding risk factor? Hugh and Tom reveal all.

Chapters:
00:00 Shared Confessions Acid Capitalist
05:10 Optimal Risk Sizing
10:30 Soros / Druckenmiller Lite Risk Model
14:00 Losing My Curiosity
15:15 The macro narrative of 2005
18:00 The Status Quo Changing
21:00 Dopamine Bingo - Creativity at Risk (CaR)
22:30 Eclectica Fund Attribution
28:00 Longs 2x Shorts but shorts bigger than longs..? 
30:00 2005 the year institutions crashed the Commodity scene
35:00 Not a Bull Mkt till you've had Violent, Painful Corrections

Support the show

⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️

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Hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, invites digital fashion entrepreneur, Karinna Knobbs, to provide another overlay between macro and tech and maybe even fashion? Ever wondered how hedge fund managers develop their ideas? Watch as Hugh interviews Karinna and they discuss THE DEMATERIALISED, an experimental marketspace for digital fashion including a system for the creation and trading of NFTs. Karinna founded the site with Marjorie Hernandez.

Hedge fund pirate Hugh Hendry chronicles the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. Hugh's discussions with other though leaders are deployed as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he's thinking and why in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights. 

This week we find Hugh deep in thought and yearning to take macro, commercial. In a world dominated by surging asset prices and the gulf between the haves and have nots, Hugh quizzes Karinna to better understand the opportunity - can we make everything affordable? Ever wanted to eavesdrop on an interesting question? Ever wondered what it would feel like to be grilled by a grizzly hedge fund manager? Here's your opportunity.  Nothing is left unsaid, consumer psychology, Cracker - the legendary British tv series - asymmetric reality try-ons. Join us for some trans media storytelling

Chaoters:
00:00 Shared Confessions The Pattern Seeker
02:15 Multi Site Villa Rental St Barts
03:21 Good for everyone: creator platform influencer consumer
05:00 One third of the world population are gamers
06:30 Making Everything Affordable
11:25 Trans Media Story Telling
16:00 Asymmetric Reality Try Ons
18:30 The Drop $3.1M in 7 minutes
23:30 $6 Sneakers 
28:00 A Sexy Functional Platform
29:30 A Spatial Web in the Metaverse

Support the show

⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️

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Hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, invites technology savant, Benedict Evans, to provide an overlay between macro and tech. Together they explore the new questions: crypto, machine learning, shifts in ecommerce, what's happening in media, China, and it's 900 million users and their significance on the rest of the world.

Hedge fund pirate Hugh Hendry chronicles the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. Hugh's discussions with other though leaders are deployed as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he's thinking and why in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights. 

This week they also discuss the convexity of adoption and why crypto as a tradeable asset could be as, or more effective, to the pressing issue of today - how do you kick-start a new network or community. Is it more effective than Instagram spending? The boys discuss. Hugh is ready to proclaim a new macro world. He can see a future were the economy turns people into assets. He gets very excited.

Chapters:
00:00 Shared Confessions Is it possible to tokenise knowledge
04:05 Comparing Crypto to Opensource technology
07:35 The Convexity of Adoption
11:40 Turn People Into Assets
13:45 The Irrevocability Bug of Tokens
14:30 All Financial Innovations go to far
17:15 Instagram reached 50m users with 7 people
19:00 Apple's new Ad Model
20:25 Duck Duck Go...The Google Token
23:50 Today's Icons - Zero Marketing
25:20 L'Oreal does 25% Sales online
28:25 Chinese Concepts Go Global

Support the show

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https://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial

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