S2 Underground – Details, episodes & analysis

//The Wire//2200Z September 20, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: MAJOR FIRE BREAKS OUT IN OHIO. POTENTIAL FOR WAR IN LEBANON CONTINUES TO MOUNT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: This morning Israeli bombing continued in Lebanon, to include the targeting of at least one major residential structure in Beirut. Hezbollah rocket attacks have continued in kind, though more randomly and sporadically. AC: No indications of an Israeli ground offensive occurring yet, though forces continue to stage in the region.

-HomeFront-

Ohio: A major fire is underway at a scrapyard facility in Columbus. The Columbus Auto Shredding facility on Alum Park Drive caught fire early this morning. Local air quality advisories are in effect due to the HAZMAT concerns from the fire. No word yet on what started the fire.

Washington D.C. – In response to the growing concern regarding the lack of substantial increases of security postures in the current threat environment, the US Secret Service director has highlighted the current stance of the USSS. Acting Director Ronald Rowe stated that “We have to be able to have the personnel, the assets, and be able to spread those out for an indefinite period of time in the event that another situation, a geopolitical conflict, or some other tension, requires us to do so”.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Statements by Director Rowe have raised eyebrows considering this is the second time this week his comparatively odd statements on the topic have left citizens wondering what he is insinuating. Many concerns lie with the nature of the “geopolitical conflict” Director Rowe has referred to twice now, and what kind of geopolitical conflict could possibly have anything to do with the US Secret Service. Any event whatsoever that would require the USSS to spread their forces thin would likely be an event of gargantuan significance. As there’s nothing to go on but implications and insinuations, this is merely a continuation of indications and warnings of the current threat environment, as tensions continue to mount this election season.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z September 19, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: ISRAEL SHIFTS FORCES TO NORTHERN FRONT. INCIDENT CAUSES INJURIES AT TRUMP EVENT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: This afternoon, following the second wave of Israeli IED attacks throughout Lebanon, Israeli forces announced the creation of a northern front campaign, and a shifting of resources to the northern border with Lebanon. Local Israeli media has claimed that the ground invasion of Lebanon has begun, however it is not clear as to if this indicates a total ground invasion of Lebanon, or a more limited border incursion.

AC: Israeli media is often exuberant in their descriptions of military activities, so even if Israeli media is claiming an invasion is occurring, the scale of such remains uncertain. Either way, this confirms with as much certainty as we’re going to get that the targeting efforts of the past two days are part of a larger campaign that is yet to come. More immediately, Israeli aerial targeting of dozens of locations around Lebanon is already occurring and has been fairly regular throughout the day (alongside Hezbollah’s rocket attacks). Whatever Israel has planned as part of a larger operation will likely take place very soon as it’s clear that a defacto state of war already exists between Israel and Lebanon.

-HomeFront-

Arizona: Reports have begun to mount concerning a possible incident at Trump’s rally in Tucson last week. Local media reports the hospitalization of several people (some reports claim as many as 20 people have been hospitalized), all due to vision problems and eye irritation that began to manifest shortly after Trump’s rally. Some victims have reported temporary blindness. The victims of this incident were all congregated together on stage, seated in the area to Trump’s right.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though the information sources regarding the Tucson incident are few, considering the current extremely high-risk threat environment a little leeway must be granted; Speculation is all that is available to the public to assess future threats in this specific case. Local media reports suggest this may have been due to exposure to some sort of chemical weapon. This is supported by the treatment efforts undertaken by local medical facilities, which treated the victims for varying types of exposure to hazardous chemicals. However, considering the environmental sensors that should be in use by the USSS, this incident probably did not involve the use of Chemical Warfare Agents (CWA). However, these symptoms are in line with other deliberate targeting efforts. High-power infrared lasers, invisible to the unaided human eye, can cause immediate blindness and burning sensations similar to what the victims reported. This could easily be medically diagnosed with an eye examination, which will be important to consider as more information becomes public regarding this incident. More broadly, this incident aligns with historic reports of Directed Energy Weapon (DEW) use, with the symptoms experienced by the victims aligning somewhat with those of Havana Syndrome. However, this possibility would be nearly impossible to prove, and is purely speculative at this time.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z September 10, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: UKRAINE CONTINUES LONG-RANGE ATTACKS ON RUSSIA. U.K. PARLIAMENT VOTES AGAINST MEASURE TO STOP THE AXING OF WINTER FUEL PAYMENT. SEARCH FOR INTERSTATE GUNMAN IN KENTUCKY CONTINUES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Russia: Ukraine conducted another significant drone attack on Moscow, resulting in the death of one woman. Russia claims to have downed 144 drones in varying regions of Russia overnight. AC: This continues the increase in long-range attacks by Ukraine, as their options have become limited by their own advance in Kursk. Over the past few months and weeks, the attacks carried out by Ukraine on obviously civilian structures (such as residential apartment buildings), have also become more common.

United Kingdom: This afternoon, a snap vote in the House of Commons resulted in a majority of MPs voting to cut this year’s Winter Fuel Payment for most of the country, as part of budgetary constraints. As of this vote, the cuts to this program will go ahead.

-HomeFront-

Kentucky: The search for interstate shooting suspect Joseph Couch continues in the vicinity of Exit 49 of I-75. Schools remain closed and local authorities continue to urge locals to remain vigilant. At least three of the victims remain in critical condition as a result of the attack.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As the search area for Joseph Couch is located in extremely rugged and remote terrain, significant challenges remain in locating him. Additionally, some details released by authorities indicate that he had initially planned to conduct the attack, then take his own life. If he did follow through on the final part of his plan, locating his body will be very difficult and might not happen anytime soon. Aerial assets are not particularly helpful in locating a single person through extremely thick overhead canopy, and in rugged terrain require being almost directly over the target. Thermal imaging is helpful to a degree, but also not as helpful as one might imagine in thick vegetation, or in situations where the target is no longer producing a heat signature. Local media is highlighting Couch’s prior military service as a means of insinuating that he is a Rambo-like figure. However, considering the likely domestic incident that led up to this attack, it’s not likely that Couch has made preparations for evading capture in the long term.

In the United Kingdom, though a foreign concept for Americans, the Winter Fuel Payment is a well-known governmental benefit relied upon by British pensioners (retirees) as a means of helping elderly citizens with winter heating costs. As energy costs in the U.K. are known to be a major concern for low-income elderly citizens, this benefit is a big deal throughout the British Isles and has become even more critical due to the extreme costs of energy that have fallen upon the European continent due to the Ukrainian War. 

As such, any effort to restrict this benefit is usually the end of one’s political career due to this benefit being a critical part of British culture; historically, this is simply not a benefit to trifle with politically, as far as citizens are concerned. However, over the past few months of PM Starmer’s government, this benefit has been on the chopping block almost in its entirety, with only a handful of people remaining eligible for the benefit as of this year. This afternoon, Conservative MPs attempted to call a vote to halt the axing of this program, a vote which failed 348 to 228. As this vote was not even close, plans to cut this benefit for most people probably will go ahead. Labour MPs are probably riding on the recent pay raise given to the state pension program to help lessen the blow, however these complexities are unlikely to matter much to the average taxpayer. More broadly, this is yet another major milestone in Britain’s rough

Hey everyone, back again with another weekly rollup! Sorry if this one is a little rough around the edges, I was exhausted while recording this earlier this morning, and I've been trying to catch up with a bunch of little projects that have taken up a lot of time. Plus, it's not like this week's events aren't historically important, so the magnitude of these latest milestones are kind of hard to capture sometimes. Anyway, at least we have the opportunity to take note, learn, and improve ourselves; there are certainly plenty of opportunities for lessons learned these days 😂

Youtube link: https://youtu.be/tlky4iZlj-Q

00:00 - Northeast Region 

10:37 - Southwestern Region 

11:26 - Western Region 

15:33 - Western Europe 

23:23 - Eastern Europe 

33:45 - Far East 

37:10 - GhostNet News 

39:40 - Closing Thoughts

//The Wire//1430Z May 31, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: STABBING ATTACK STRIKES MANNHEIM. CHICKEN FARM BURNS IN ILLINOIS. POLISH ARMS DEPOT DESTROYED IN FIRE. DONALD TRUMP CONVICTED.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Germany: An attempted assassination of Michael Stürzenberger was carried out by an Islamic terrorist wielding a knife in Mannheim. AC: During the struggle, a policeman was also stabbed in the neck by the assailant after possibly tackling the wrong person during the melee. Stürzenberger is a well-known activist famous for his vocal opposition to Islam and Islamic immigration.

Poland: Early unconfirmed reporting indicates an arms supply depot caught fire overnight in Radom. The fire totally destroyed the facility, causing an estimated $120 million in damage (according to some sources). AC: This facility reportedly housed munitions and arms destined for Ukraine.

-HomeFront-

New York: Donald Trump has been convicted of all 34 felony counts presented. His sentencing has been scheduling for July 11th.

Illinois: A 5-alarm fire broke out at Farina Farms of Marion County overnight. The fire totally consumed the complex, resulting in the deaths of potentially millions of chickens. The cause of the incident is unknown. AC: This follows the culling of 4 million hens as a result of bird flu in Iowa.

Washington D.C. – The White House has given permission for Ukraine to conduct strikes inside Russia with the munitions provided by American taxpayers. Germany also granted the same with arms and munitions provided by Germany.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though Ukraine has already very likely used western munitions to target Russia directly, the open admission of such will likely result in even more escalation of the war in Ukraine. Strategically, this move is unlikely to make any difference.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2030Z May 30, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TENSIONS CONTINUE IN NORTH KOREA. FRANCE CONTINUES CONSIDERING UKRAINE DEPLOYMENT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Far East: Tensions on the Korean Peninsula continue as North Korean forces conduct GPS jamming operations near the border. Reportedly aircraft arriving and departing from Inchon International Airport in Seoul were affected by the jamming. Overnight, North Korean forces also launched approximately 10x SRBMs into the Sea of Japan.

France: Reports continue to mount that France either has, or is about to, deploy troops to Ukraine in some manner. Following the French Foreign Legion fiasco a few weeks ago, a few days ago General Oleksandr Syrsky, the Commander in Chief of the AFU stated that French troops would soon be arriving in Kiev. Later on, Syrsky retracted these claims, stating that talks are still ongoing with regards to a potential French deployment.

-HomeFront-

New York: The verdict for the latest Trump trial is expected soon, which may result in localized demonstrations and/or more substantial federal activities with regards to the restriction of transportation. AC: Mass civil unrest is unlikely, however due to the historic nature of this latest political development, increased situational awareness is recommended.  

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: It is overwhelmingly likely that France is trying to slowly walk towards openly deploying soldiers in Ukraine, and probably already has taken steps in that direction. With regards to special operations, when a politician of any nation suggests sending forces to a location openly, behind closed doors those forces have probably already been there for some time….the “secret” deployment of special forces from every NATO member to Ukraine has been the most open secret of the entire war (though most of these troops likely have been in more of an “advisory role”, to varying degrees). As such, France (and other NATO members) continuing to call for escalation of the war, either by sending troops or by encouraging Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia, the end result is unlikely to change much.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z May 29, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: DPRK LAUNCHES PROPAGANDA BALLOONS TOWARD SOUTH KOREA. CRIMINAL ACTIVITY IN U.S. CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Far East: The Korean Peninsula has been active following several recent developments. Over the weekend, North Korea unsuccessfully attempted to launch a military satellite into orbit. The space vehicle broke up during the launch. Overnight, South Korean citizens observed hundreds of small balloons that were launched in North Korea’s border region, drifting into South Korea. Most of the balloons contained garbage, manure, or propaganda leaflets.

-HomeFront-

California: The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department has issued a public warning regarding increasingly sophisticated crime tactics in the area. International crime organizations have exhibited more bold tactics, to include emplacing camouflaged surveillance equipment on private property. This tactic specifically is in reference to the arrest of four Columbians who were arrested after using this bold intelligence collection technique as part of expanding their theft network. This tactic was also allegedly used by a separate burglary ring which was recently discovered in Malibu.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In addition to increasingly more capable Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) tactics being used by everyone from routine thieves to foreign intelligence agencies over the past few years, more substantially violent encounters are being reported in the commission of crimes. This has been an unsurprising trend over the past few years, but continues to increase in severity and significance. This has been most clearly demonstrated via several viral incidents that have been observed around the U.S. this summer, in which the burglary victims were shot and/or attacked, even after complying with the thieves. As such, careful observation and situational awareness must be maintained in a time where no quarter is given by regular street criminals, with extreme violence being used in the commission of even the smallest crime.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2330Z May 28, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CONFLICT AND TENSION CONTINUES IN GAZA. F-35 CRASHES NEAR ALBUQUERQUE//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: International tensions remain high following the Egyptian border skirmish yesterday, as well as a high-profile strike resulting in many civilian casualties (CIVCAS) over the weekend. Israeli forces conducted a large airstrike on a tent-city encampment in Rafah, which resulted in approximately 40 casualties.

In the north Hamas and Hezbollah attacks continue along a wide front along the Lebanese border, as well as dotted throughout the countryside in the vicinity of West Bank, Gaza City, etc. Attacks from Hezbollah have steadily increased over the past few weeks in response to developing events in Gaza as well as the changing battlespace throughout the region.

-HomeFront-

New Mexico: An F-35 crashed in the vicinity of Albuquerque International Airport this afternoon. The aircraft crashed upon takeoff, with the debris field being located adjacent University Blvd SE, IVO grid: 13SCU5063375969. The pilot reportedly ejected safely before impact.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Originally the IDF claimed that the strike in Gaza didn’t happen, or happened in a different location, however Israeli PM Netanyahu directly contradicted these statements by stating the strike was a mistake. Allegedly, the large amount of CIVCAS was due to munitions causing a fuel tank to explode, owing to the large number of burn victims witnessed following the strike. As with the other high-profile, high-CIVCAS strikes observed so far in this conflict, it is not clear how Collateral Damage Estimation (CDE) methodology failed to identify and/or mitigate this potential CIVCAS, why Joint Desired Points of Impact (JDPIs) were placed danger-close to facilities that would have been visually identified with proper plume analysis, or why low-CDE munitions were apparently not used to conduct this strike.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2330Z May 27, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: EGYPTIAN, ISRAELI SOLDIERS EXCHANGE GUNFIRE ON BORDER NEAR RAFAH.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: This morning Israeli and Egyptian forces exchanged small arms fire in the vicinity of Rafah, following the Israeli occupation of the Philadelphi corridor. So far, at least one Egyptian soldier has been killed in the skirmish, however this figure could be as high as four. No casualties have been reported on the Israeli side.

In Gaza, the U.S.-built pier is out of action following weather conditions over the weekend that caused several sections of the makeshift landing zone to break free and drift down the beach. It is unclear as to when (or if) this project will be repaired.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: At the moment it is not clear as to which side initiated contact in Rafah. Though official statements have not entirely been forthcoming, both sides seem to claim the other started the engagement. Additionally, this conflict does not appear to have been a simple one-and-done shooting, but may have been a protracted small arms engagement over a period of many minutes. As of this report, the engagement(s) between Israel and Egypt seem to have subsided. As it stands, diplomatic tensions remain at heights historically reminiscent of a widening conflict in the region, though it is too soon to tell if more substantial conflict will arise due to this latest escalation.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

 00:00 - Northeast Region 
01:38 - Southeast Region 
09:56 - Western Region 
12:05 - Western Europe 
14:34 - Iranian Helicopter Crash 
19:18 - Far East/Taiwan 
34:30 - GhostNet Reports 
36:56 - Closing Thoughts

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