Rational Security – Details, episodes & analysis

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Molly Reynolds and Alan Rozenshtein, and with University of Houston Law Center Assistant Professor of Law Chris Mirasola, to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:

• “Troops, There It Is.” President-elect Donald Trump raised eyebrows this week when he suggested that he intended to declare a national emergency and use U.S. soldiers to implement his planned deportation of undocumented migrants from the United States—the first of many potential domestic uses of the military some fear he will pursue. But does the president have the authority to use the military in this way? And is a(nother) national emergency really necessary?
• “Break It ‘Til You Make It.” Some have expressed serious doubt as to whether the incoming Trump administration’s flurry of highly controversial nominees for senior positions in government will be able to successfully make its way through even the Republican-held Senate. But doing so may not be necessary, as Trump’s allies are reportedly exploring a legal scheme by which he can use a never-before-used authority to adjourn Congress to force the Senate into an extended recess, and then appoint his preferred nominees as recess appointments. How plausible is this legal theory? And what role is it likely to play in Trump’s confirmation strategy?
• “Rolling Back the Clock.” While he was once one of TikTok’s greatest enemies, President-elect Trump has changed his tune: on the campaign trail, he came out against the ban on the controversial social media platform passed by Congress, which is sent to go into effect early next year if its China-associated owners do not divest. Will Trump try to come to TikTok’s rescue? And if so, what could he do?

For object lessons, Alan recommended the childrens’ audio player “Yoto,” to the fervent applause of the other guests and their young children. Molly embraced her Patrick Radden Keefe fandom one more time to recommend FX’s forthcoming adaptation of his book, “Say Nothing.” Chris endorsed Jon Batiste’s new album “Beethoven Blues.” And Scott urged listeners to follow his lead and take in an aptonymous double-feature this weekend: the new film “Saturday Night” and the first ever 1975 episode of “Saturday Night Live” that it’s about.

Note: We will be taking the week of Thanksgiving off, but we’ll be back with a new episode of Rational Security on Thursday, December 5. We’re thankful for your continued support of the show!

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower, Eugenia Lostri, and Roger Parloff to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:

• “Putting the Dismal in Dismissal.” Donald Trump’s election as president for a second time puts the state and federal criminal charges against him—and potentially some of his supporters and co-conspirators—in unprecedented historical territory. Where do these cases seem to be headed? And what will it mean for the broader effort at accountability, especially around Jan. 6?
• “Taking Bytes Out of Crime.” As one of its last acts in power, the Biden administration seems poised to support a forthcoming U.N. convention on cybercrime, despite reservations among some observers that it may be abused by autocratic regimes and strategic rivals. Why is the Biden administration tempted by the treaty? And what will its support at this late hour mean in practice?
• “Meme of Rivals.” Donald Trump is only one week in as president-elect but has already released a flurry of appointments and rumored appointments for senior positions in his forthcoming administration. And those appointed range from established Republicans like Sen. Marco Rubio, who is rumored to be Trump’s pick for Secretary of State, to iconoclasts like billionaire Elon Musk, who is co-heading a “Department of Government Efficiency” (or “DOGE”). What should we make of these selections thus far—and the process behind them?

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.

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In the debut episode of RatSec 2.1, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Kevin Frazier, Eugenia Lostri, and Benjamin Wittes to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:

• “I Have Concepts of a Segment Topic.” On Tuesday, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump faced off in what might end up being the only presidential debate between the two candidates in the 2024 election. What did it tell us about how national security is figuring into this election? 
• “Running Political Interference Interference.” The Justice Department has been very busy these past few weeks, bringing an array of indictments and enforcement actions against various Russian actors and their proxies for spreading misinformation, surreptitiously funding political commentary, and otherwise attempting to interfere in the upcoming 2024 elections. What explains this sudden wave of activity so close to the election? And what threats are still hanging out there?
• “Never Forgot.” Twenty-three years have passed since the unprecedented terrorist attacks of 9/11. In many ways, they redefined the trajectory of U.S. national security policy (and politics) for decades. But today, the United States has shifted focus to a very different set of challenges. What is the legacy of 9/11 more than two decades after the attacks? 

For object lessons, Kevin readied our listeners for depression before recommending Neil Postman’s new book, “Amusing Ourselves to Death.” Ben endorsed the documentary Man on Wire as his favorite movie about 9/11, in part because it has nothing to do with 9/11. Scott urged D.C.-area residents not to sleep on the sublime joys of an outdoor show at Wolf Trap while the weather is still nice. And Eugenia shed her video game label to throw her support behind James Cameron’s latest maritime adventure, the (weirdly mutant-free) sea exploration documentary series OceanXplorers.

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were once again joined by Congress maven Molly Reynolds to hash through some of the week's big natsec news, including:

• “Don’t Fear the Referr(als).” As its presumed end draws nigh with the new Congress, the Jan. 6 committee is racing to bring its work to a close. Yesterday it voted to make four sets of criminal referrals, including for former President Trump. It also released a 100-page draft executive summary for its forthcoming report. What more should we expect from the committee? And what impact will these steps have?
• “The Grapes of Vlad.” The U.S. Congress sent a strong message of support to Ukraine this week by committing $45 billion in U.S. assistance, even more than requested by the Biden Administration. But there are few signs that Russia’s poor performance thus far is threatening Russian President Vladimir Putin’s control of the country, who seems to be settling in for a long-haul strategy of waiting out Western and Ukrainian resistance. What trajectory is this conflict on as it approaches the one-year mark? Where do we think it’s likely headed?
• “Showdown at the O.K. Corral.” The Republican Party is set to take control of the House in January. But who will be leading them remains up in the air, as majority leader Kevin McCarty is still struggling to secure enough support from the far right wing of his party. His supporters are circling the wagon, most recently by publicly wearing “O.K.” pins signaling their support for “Only Kevin.” But can he get across the threshold? And at what cost? 

For object lessons, Alan recommended the overlooked spy drama "The Courier" for all his fellow Cumberbitches. Quinta passed along her favorite recipe for holiday cookies. Scott re-upped his (well-reviewed!) eggnog recipe and recommended another holiday classic: the Lion's Tail. And Molly urged everyone suffering from World Cup withdrawal to check out NPR's "The Last Cup."

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by serial guest Lawfare executive editor Natalie Orpett to talk through the week's big national security news, including:

• “Surly Intervention.” Desperate circumstances in the island nation of Haiti have both Haitians and the international community thinking seriously about another international intervention. But no one seems excited about the prospect, or eager to lead it. How should the international community be approaching this situation?
• “What’s the Penalty for Inequal Substitution?” The Biden administration finally negotiated the freedom of WNBA Star Brittany Griner this past week, but at a steep cost: the freedom of notorious Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. And she leaves behind her another American, Paul Whelan, who has been in Russian prison since 2018. Was the trade worth making? How should the United States handle these difficult hostage-taking cases?
• “Justice Delayed is Justice in Stride.” Nearly thirty-four years after the Pan Am 103 bombing, the Justice Department has secured custody over Abu Agila Masud, a former Libyan intelligence operative believed to have built the bomb for, and played a key role in, the operation. How big a victory is this capture? How is the Justice Department likely to approach his prosecution?

For object lessons, Alan embraced his inner Trekkie and endorsed the newest Star Trek series, "Star Trek: Strange New Worlds." Quinta endorsed Don Delillo's classic 1985 novel "White Noise," soon to be a feature film from Noah Baumbach. Scott encouraged listeners to incorporate folk guitarist John Fahey's 1968 album "The New Possibility" into their holiday music routine. And Natalie gave a few recommendations from her recent dive into short stories, including T. Coraghessan Boyle's short story "Princess" in a recent issue of the New Yorker and the late Hillary Mantel's collection of short stories, "The Assassination of Margaret Thatcher."

Also, Rational Security will be doing its listener-submitted end-of-year episode later this month! So be sure to send any topics you want us to discuss or object lessons you want to share to [email protected]. 

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were reunited after a few weeks apart to talk through the week's big national security news, including:

• “In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is Still Guilty of Seditious Conspiracy.” The jury in the Oath Keepers trial came back last week, convicting every defendant of at least one criminal offense—including the controversial charge of seditious conspiracy. What might this mean for other Jan. 6 investigations moving forward?
• “Morality? Puh-leeze.” Weeks of protests in Iran finally seemed to bear fruit last week when a regime official signaled that the morality police may be disbanded and laws requiring that women wear hijabs be repealed. But other regime figures don’t seem on-board with that solution. Is this a sign that protests are succeeding? Where might they go from here?
• “Les Fleurs du MAL.” The litigation that led Judge Aileen Cannon to appoint a special master to review evidence collected by the FBI from former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate this past summer has finally culminated in its final form: an 11th Circuit ruling reversing Judge Cannon’s order and disbanding the process altogether. Where will the investigation go from here?

For object lessons, Alan celebrated Quinta and Ben's silver screen debut. Quinta recommended Rachel Maddow's new podcast series "Ultra." And Scott provided an essential Muppet holiday special update, flagging both that "A Muppet Christmas Carol" was being restored to its original form on Disney+ on 12/11 as well as an online version of the 1987 classic, "A Muppet Family Christmas." 

Also, Rational Security will be doing its listener-submitted end-of-year episode later this month! So be sure to send any topics you want us to discuss or object lessons you want to share to [email protected]. 

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This week, Quinta and Scott co-hosted sans Alan, but were joined by the co-hosts of the Carnegie Council's The Doorstep Podcast, Nikolas Gvosdev and Tatiania Serafin! They talked through the week's big national security news, including:

• “Paper Rocks Censors.” China has erupted in protests against Xi Jinping’s draconian zero-COVID policies, with thousands of Chinese citizens holding up a blank white sheet of paper as a sign of their discontent. Will these “white paper” protests make a difference in China? How should the United States respond?
• “A Cheney Might Shoot You in the Face, But They’d Never Stab You in the Back.” Last week, the Washington Post reported that more than a dozen current and past staffers on the Jan. 6 committee are angry with co-chair Liz Cheney for decisions to focus the committee’s final report on conduct related to former President Trump. Is there merit to these complaints or do they seem overblown?
• “Much Guaido About Nothing?” The Biden administration is easing sanctions on Venezuela, as talks loom between the incumbent Maduro regime and recognized government-in-exile of opposition leader Juan Guaido. Does this signal a major shift in U.S. policy towards Venezuela? Or are those condemning the move overblowing the situation?

As for object lessons, Quinta engaged in a bit of self-promotion over her recent Atlantic piece on the forthcoming Supreme Court case Moore v. Harper. Scott indulged in a Werner Herzog impression to recommend a new documentary directed by his son, "Last Exit: Space." Nikolas urged listeners to check out a recent interview with former German Chancellor Angela Merkel on her legacy and the current state of affairs in Europe. And Tatiana poured one out for free speech and passed along a recent article in New York Magazine, "Do You Have a Right Not to be Lied To?"

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This week, a Quinta-less Alan and Scott welcomed Lawfare's dynamic associate editor duo, Katherine Pompilio and Hyemin Han, on to the show to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:

• “Going Full Cleve.” Last week, former President Donald Trump announced his intention to once again run for president—in spite of the Republicans’ weak showing in the midterm elections and his own impending legal troubles. What does Trump’s announcement mean for 2024 and after? 
• “A Mueller Mulligan?” Trump’s announcement that he was once again running for president in turn led Attorney General Merrick Garland to make his own announcement last Friday: that he was appointing another Special Counsel to take over the investigations into Trump’s interference in the 2020 election results and mishandling of classified records. Was this the right move? How will the Special Counsel’s appointment impact the investigations—and Trump’s political future?
• “Pyongyanking Our Chain.” North Korea has launched a new ICBM that it claims can deliver nuclear weapons anywhere in the United States. Should this threat be taken seriously or is it a bluff? And is the Biden administration doing enough to respond?

For object lessons, Alan shared the tale of Lawfare's biggest animal fan, Katherine's African Grey parrot Moby. Scott passed along the late Michael Gerson's essay on dropping his youngest son off at college as a wonderful meditation on parenthood. Katherine shared her passion for soft jazz, and recommended the album "Ethiopics, Vol. 4: Ethio Jazz 1969-1974" as a great dive into Ethiopia's own early 1970s jazz scene. And Hyemin endorsed a show she recently took in at the Brooklyn Academy of Music: "Trojan Women," which beautifully translated a Greek tragedy through the Korean storytelling form of pansori.

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• “Red Dead Redemption.” Expectations of a “red wave” in the 2022 midterm elections came up short this week, as Democrats retained control of the Senate and expanded their control in the states while Republicans only appear to gain control of the House by the slimmest of margins. How will these election results impact the security of our democracy moving forward?  
• “Negotiating a Peace Entreaty.” Even as Russian forces beat a retreat from Kherson, some officials within the Biden administration—most notably, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley—are reportedly becoming more inclined to push for a negotiated peace with Russia, particularly as the winter months slow down the pace of fighting. Russia, meanwhile, responded to a speech by Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky outlining a 10 step plan for peace with a new barrage of missile attacks. What are the pros and cons of such negotiations? And how might they impact the conflict, and its attendant risks of escalation? (When the team recorded, it seemed possible that a Russian missile had landed on Polish soil, killing two civilians; as of Wednesday morning, NATO now says the blast was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile and was unintentional.)
• “He Said, Xi Said.” President Biden sat down with Chinese President Xi Jinping this past week for their first face-to-face meeting as presidents on the margins of the G20 meeting. Both sides reportedly committed to easing tensions between the two countries and resuming work towards shared challenges, such as climate change. What explains this change in tack? Will it stick?

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Brookings Institution Middle East expert Natan Sachs to talk over the week's big (non-U.S. election) national security news, including:

• “Bibi Got Back.” Last week, an unprecedented fifth national election in the last four years returned controversial former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to power, at the head of a coalition including several far-right nationalist parties. What does his return to office mean for the future of Israel and the region? And its relations with the United States?
• “COP Out.” The United Nations’ 27th annual Convention of Parties (also known as “COP27”) is playing host to world leaders in Sharm-al-Sheikh, Egypt, this week, where some are hoping to find new consensus on how to combat climate change. Are countries taking these challenges seriously? What are these efforts likely to look like moving forward?
• “Everybody Toots.” Elon Musk’s purchase and dramatic reorientation of Twitter is begging to drive users to other social media platforms, including the decentralized Mastodon network. What will Musk’s changes mean for the future of disinformation and content moderation, both within Twitter and outside of it?

For object lessons, Alan endorsed hunting the world's most dangerous game: man (with paintballs). Quinta passed along a useful reference on the state of crime in the United States and the way it is being used in the midterm elections. Scott recommended everyone try a sip of his long neglected workplace colleague. And Natan celebrated the pandemic perseverance of his office jade plants as a sign of hope in dark times.

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