Explore every episode of the podcast Rational Security
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The “Sad Norman Rockwell” Edition
21 Nov 2024
01:19:28
This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Molly Reynolds and Alan Rozenshtein, and with University of Houston Law Center Assistant Professor of Law Chris Mirasola, to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:
“Troops, There It Is.” President-elect Donald Trump raised eyebrows this week when he suggested that he intended to declare a national emergency and use U.S. soldiers to implement his planned deportation of undocumented migrants from the United States—the first of many potential domestic uses of the military some fear he will pursue. But does the president have the authority to use the military in this way? And is a(nother) national emergency really necessary?
“Break It ‘Til You Make It.” Some have expressed serious doubt as to whether the incoming Trump administration’s flurry of highly controversial nominees for senior positions in government will be able to successfully make its way through even the Republican-held Senate. But doing so may not be necessary, as Trump’s allies are reportedly exploring a legal scheme by which he can use a never-before-used authority to adjourn Congress to force the Senate into an extended recess, and then appoint his preferred nominees as recess appointments. How plausible is this legal theory? And what role is it likely to play in Trump’s confirmation strategy?
“Rolling Back the Clock.” While he was once one of TikTok’s greatest enemies, President-elect Trump has changed his tune: on the campaign trail, he came out against the ban on the controversial social media platform passed by Congress, which is sent to go into effect early next year if its China-associated owners do not divest. Will Trump try to come to TikTok’s rescue? And if so, what could he do?
For object lessons, Alan recommended the childrens’ audio player “Yoto,” to the fervent applause of the other guests and their young children. Molly embraced her Patrick Radden Keefe fandom one more time to recommend FX’s forthcoming adaptation of his book, “Say Nothing.” Chris endorsed Jon Batiste’s new album “Beethoven Blues.” And Scott urged listeners to follow his lead and take in an aptonymous double-feature this weekend: the new film “Saturday Night”and the first ever 1975 episode of “Saturday Night Live”that it’s about.
Note: We will be taking the week of Thanksgiving off, but we’ll be back with a new episode of Rational Security on Thursday, December 5. We’re thankful for your continued support of the show!
The “Steven Spielberg Does Not Need a Free Drink" Edition
14 Nov 2024
01:18:44
This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower, Eugenia Lostri, and Roger Parloff to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:
“Putting the Dismal in Dismissal.” Donald Trump’s election as president for a second time puts the state and federal criminal charges against him—and potentially some of his supporters and co-conspirators—in unprecedented historical territory. Where do these cases seem to be headed? And what will it mean for the broader effort at accountability, especially around Jan. 6?
“Taking Bytes Out of Crime.” As one of its last acts in power, the Biden administration seems poised to support a forthcoming U.N. convention on cybercrime, despite reservations among some observers that it may be abused by autocratic regimes and strategic rivals. Why is the Biden administration tempted by the treaty? And what will its support at this late hour mean in practice?
“Meme of Rivals.” Donald Trump is only one week in as president-elect but has already released a flurry of appointments and rumored appointments for senior positions in his forthcoming administration. And those appointed range from established Republicans like Sen. Marco Rubio, who is rumored to be Trump’s pick for Secretary of State, to iconoclasts like billionaire Elon Musk, who is co-heading a “Department of Government Efficiency” (or “DOGE”). What should we make of these selections thus far—and the process behind them?
In the debut episode of RatSec 2.1, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Kevin Frazier, Eugenia Lostri, and Benjamin Wittes to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:
“I Have Concepts of a Segment Topic.” On Tuesday, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump faced off in what might end up being the only presidential debate between the two candidates in the 2024 election. What did it tell us about how national security is figuring into this election?
“Running Political Interference Interference.” The Justice Department has been very busy these past few weeks, bringing an array of indictments and enforcement actions against various Russian actors and their proxies for spreading misinformation, surreptitiously funding political commentary, and otherwise attempting to interfere in the upcoming 2024 elections. What explains this sudden wave of activity so close to the election? And what threats are still hanging out there?
“Never Forgot.” Twenty-three years have passed since the unprecedented terrorist attacks of 9/11. In many ways, they redefined the trajectory of U.S. national security policy (and politics) for decades. But today, the United States has shifted focus to a very different set of challenges. What is the legacy of 9/11 more than two decades after the attacks?
For object lessons, Kevin readied our listeners for depression before recommending Neil Postman’s new book, “Amusing Ourselves to Death.” Ben endorsed the documentary Man on Wireas his favorite movie about 9/11, in part because it has nothing to do with 9/11. Scott urged D.C.-area residents not to sleep on the sublime joys of an outdoor show at Wolf Trap while the weather is still nice. And Eugenia shed her video game label to throw her support behind James Cameron’s latest maritime adventure, the (weirdly mutant-free) sea exploration documentary series OceanXplorers.
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were once again joined by Congress maven Molly Reynolds to hash through some of the week's big natsec news, including:
“Don’t Fear the Referr(als).” As its presumed end draws nigh with the new Congress, the Jan. 6 committee is racing to bring its work to a close. Yesterday it voted to make four sets of criminal referrals, including for former President Trump. It also released a 100-page draft executive summary for its forthcoming report. What more should we expect from the committee? And what impact will these steps have?
“The Grapes of Vlad.” The U.S. Congress sent a strong message of support to Ukraine this week by committing $45 billion in U.S. assistance, even more than requested by the Biden Administration. But there are few signs that Russia’s poor performance thus far is threatening Russian President Vladimir Putin’s control of the country, who seems to be settling in for a long-haul strategy of waiting out Western and Ukrainian resistance. What trajectory is this conflict on as it approaches the one-year mark? Where do we think it’s likely headed?
“Showdown at the O.K. Corral.” The Republican Party is set to take control of the House in January. But who will be leading them remains up in the air, as majority leader Kevin McCarty is still struggling to secure enough support from the far right wing of his party. His supporters are circling the wagon, most recently by publicly wearing “O.K.” pins signaling their support for “Only Kevin.” But can he get across the threshold? And at what cost?
For object lessons, Alan recommended the overlooked spy drama "The Courier" for all his fellow Cumberbitches. Quinta passed along her favorite recipe for holiday cookies. Scott re-upped his (well-reviewed!) eggnog recipe and recommended another holiday classic: the Lion's Tail. And Molly urged everyone suffering from World Cup withdrawal to check out NPR's "The Last Cup."
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by serial guest Lawfare executive editor Natalie Orpett to talk through the week's big national security news, including:
“Surly Intervention.” Desperate circumstances in the island nation of Haiti have both Haitians and the international community thinking seriously about another international intervention. But no one seems excited about the prospect, or eager to lead it. How should the international community be approaching this situation?
“What’s the Penalty for Inequal Substitution?” The Biden administration finally negotiated the freedom of WNBA Star Brittany Griner this past week, but at a steep cost: the freedom of notorious Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. And she leaves behind her another American, Paul Whelan, who has been in Russian prison since 2018. Was the trade worth making? How should the United States handle these difficult hostage-taking cases?
“Justice Delayed is Justice in Stride.” Nearly thirty-four years after the Pan Am 103 bombing, the Justice Department has secured custody over Abu Agila Masud, a former Libyan intelligence operative believed to have built the bomb for, and played a key role in, the operation. How big a victory is this capture? How is the Justice Department likely to approach his prosecution?
For object lessons, Alan embraced his inner Trekkie and endorsed the newest Star Trek series, "Star Trek: Strange New Worlds." Quinta endorsed Don Delillo's classic 1985 novel "White Noise," soon to be a feature film from Noah Baumbach. Scott encouraged listeners to incorporate folk guitarist John Fahey's 1968 album "The New Possibility" into their holiday music routine. And Natalie gave a few recommendations from her recent dive into short stories, including T. Coraghessan Boyle's short story "Princess" in a recent issue of the New Yorker and the late Hillary Mantel's collection of short stories, "The Assassination of Margaret Thatcher."
Also, Rational Security will be doing its listener-submitted end-of-year episode later this month! So be sure to send any topics you want us to discuss or object lessons you want to share to rationalsecurity@lawfareblog.com.
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were reunited after a few weeks apart to talk through the week's big national security news, including:
“In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is Still Guilty of Seditious Conspiracy.” The jury in the Oath Keepers trial came back last week, convicting every defendant of at least one criminal offense—including the controversial charge of seditious conspiracy. What might this mean for other Jan. 6 investigations moving forward?
“Morality? Puh-leeze.” Weeks of protests in Iran finally seemed to bear fruit last week when a regime official signaled that the morality police may be disbanded and laws requiring that women wear hijabs be repealed. But other regime figures don’t seem on-board with that solution. Is this a sign that protests are succeeding? Where might they go from here?
“Les Fleurs du MAL.” The litigation that led Judge Aileen Cannon to appoint a special master to review evidence collected by the FBI from former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate this past summer has finally culminated in its final form: an 11th Circuit ruling reversing Judge Cannon’s order and disbanding the process altogether. Where will the investigation go from here?
For object lessons, Alan celebrated Quinta and Ben's silver screen debut. Quinta recommended Rachel Maddow's new podcast series "Ultra." And Scott provided an essential Muppet holiday special update, flagging both that "A Muppet Christmas Carol" was being restored to its original form on Disney+ on 12/11 as well as an online version of the 1987 classic, "A Muppet Family Christmas."
Also, Rational Security will be doing its listener-submitted end-of-year episode later this month! So be sure to send any topics you want us to discuss or object lessons you want to share to rationalsecurity@lawfareblog.com.
This week, Quinta and Scott co-hosted sans Alan, but were joined by the co-hosts of the Carnegie Council's The Doorstep Podcast, Nikolas Gvosdev and Tatiania Serafin! They talked through the week's big national security news, including:
“Paper Rocks Censors.” China has erupted in protests against Xi Jinping’s draconian zero-COVID policies, with thousands of Chinese citizens holding up a blank white sheet of paper as a sign of their discontent. Will these “white paper” protests make a difference in China? How should the United States respond?
“A Cheney Might Shoot You in the Face, But They’d Never Stab You in the Back.” Last week, the Washington Postreported that more than a dozen current and past staffers on the Jan. 6 committee are angry with co-chair Liz Cheney for decisions to focus the committee’s final report on conduct related to former President Trump. Is there merit to these complaints or do they seem overblown?
“Much Guaido About Nothing?” The Biden administration is easing sanctions on Venezuela, as talks loom between the incumbent Maduro regime and recognized government-in-exile of opposition leader Juan Guaido. Does this signal a major shift in U.S. policy towards Venezuela? Or are those condemning the move overblowing the situation?
As for object lessons, Quinta engaged in a bit of self-promotion over her recent Atlanticpiece on the forthcoming Supreme Court case Moore v. Harper. Scott indulged in a Werner Herzog impression to recommend a new documentary directed by his son, "Last Exit: Space." Nikolas urged listeners to check out a recent interview with former German Chancellor Angela Merkel on her legacy and the current state of affairs in Europe. And Tatiana poured one out for free speech and passed along a recent article in New York Magazine, "Do You Have a Right Not to be Lied To?"
This week, a Quinta-less Alan and Scott welcomed Lawfare's dynamic associate editor duo, Katherine Pompilio and Hyemin Han, on to the show to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:
“Going Full Cleve.” Last week, former President Donald Trump announced his intention to once again run for president—in spite of the Republicans’ weak showing in the midterm elections and his own impending legal troubles. What does Trump’s announcement mean for 2024 and after?
“A Mueller Mulligan?” Trump’s announcement that he was once again running for president in turn led Attorney General Merrick Garland to make his own announcement last Friday: that he was appointing another Special Counsel to take over the investigations into Trump’s interference in the 2020 election results and mishandling of classified records. Was this the right move? How will the Special Counsel’s appointment impact the investigations—and Trump’s political future?
“Pyongyanking Our Chain.” North Korea has launched a new ICBM that it claims can deliver nuclear weapons anywhere in the United States. Should this threat be taken seriously or is it a bluff? And is the Biden administration doing enough to respond?
For object lessons, Alan shared the tale of Lawfare's biggest animal fan, Katherine's African Grey parrot Moby. Scott passed along the late Michael Gerson's essay on dropping his youngest son off at college as a wonderful meditation on parenthood. Katherine shared her passion for soft jazz, and recommended the album "Ethiopics, Vol. 4: Ethio Jazz 1969-1974" as a great dive into Ethiopia's own early 1970s jazz scene. And Hyemin endorsed a show she recently took in at the Brooklyn Academy of Music: "Trojan Women," which beautifully translated a Greek tragedy through the Korean storytelling form of pansori.
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott talked through a big week of national security news, including:
“Red Dead Redemption.” Expectations of a “red wave” in the 2022 midterm elections came up short this week, as Democrats retained control of the Senate and expanded their control in the states while Republicans only appear to gain control of the House by the slimmest of margins. How will these election results impact the security of our democracy moving forward?
“Negotiating a Peace Entreaty.” Even as Russian forces beat a retreat from Kherson, some officials within the Biden administration—most notably, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley—are reportedly becoming more inclined to push for a negotiated peace with Russia, particularly as the winter months slow down the pace of fighting. Russia, meanwhile, responded to a speech by Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky outlining a 10 step plan for peace with a new barrage of missile attacks. What are the pros and cons of such negotiations? And how might they impact the conflict, and its attendant risks of escalation? (When the team recorded, it seemed possible that a Russian missile had landed on Polish soil, killing two civilians; as of Wednesday morning, NATO now says the blast was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile and was unintentional.)
“He Said, Xi Said.” President Biden sat down with Chinese President Xi Jinping this past week for their first face-to-face meeting as presidents on the margins of the G20 meeting. Both sides reportedly committed to easing tensions between the two countries and resuming work towards shared challenges, such as climate change. What explains this change in tack? Will it stick?
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Brookings Institution Middle East expert Natan Sachs to talk over the week's big (non-U.S. election) national security news, including:
“COP Out.” The United Nations’ 27th annual Convention of Parties (also known as “COP27”) is playing host to world leaders in Sharm-al-Sheikh, Egypt, this week, where some are hoping to find new consensus on how to combat climate change. Are countries taking these challenges seriously? What are these efforts likely to look like moving forward?
“Everybody Toots.” Elon Musk’s purchase and dramatic reorientation of Twitter is begging to drive users to other social media platforms, including the decentralized Mastodon network. What will Musk’s changes mean for the future of disinformation and content moderation, both within Twitter and outside of it?
For object lessons, Alan endorsed hunting the world's most dangerous game: man (with paintballs). Quinta passed along a useful reference on the state of crime in the United States and the way it is being used in the midterm elections. Scott recommended everyone try a sip of his long neglected workplace colleague. And Natan celebrated the pandemic perseverance of his office jade plants as a sign of hope in dark times.
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott shook off their post-Halloween sugar comas to hash through some of the week's big national security news stories, including:
“A Home Invasion in the House.” A man connected to various online conspiracies broke into the San Francisco home of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and violently assaulted her husband, all as part of a plot to kidnap and torture her. What is to blame for this type of violence? Are we taking it seriously enough?
“First (R)use?” The Biden administration’s recently released Nuclear Posture Review has taken many progressives by surprise, as it appears to walk back candidate Biden’s commitment to a policy against first use. Is this criticism fair? What should we make of the Biden administration’s nuclear strategy?
For object lessons, Alan recommended his favorite recent audiobook, Daniel Immerwahr's "How to Hide an Empire." Quinta threw her support behind the season of Fall, and shared a photo of some of its lovely colors (see our show page). And Scott recommended a cocktail named after the only way worth living: Naked and Famous.
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by China expert and law professor Julian Ku to talk through some of the week's big national security news, including:
“Xi Loves Me, Xi Loves Me Not.” At the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress this past weekend, Chinese President Xi Jinping was able to not only secure his leadership over the party and country for a third consecutive five-year term but successfully staff the party apparatus with his hand-picked loyalists. What does the Congress tell us about where China is headed under Xi’s rule?
“Huawei or the Highway.” Less than 24 hours after the close of the CCP Congress in Beijing, Attorney General Merrick Garland and his most senior deputies unveiled a series of indictments against Chinese nationals alleged to have engaged in covert campaigns to interfere with the investigation into Huawei, penetrate U.S. research institutions, and curb protests by Chinese nationals in the United States. Is the timing a message or just a coincidence? How should the Biden administration be responding?
“4th and Elon(g).” Despite his best efforts, Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter is set to go through this Friday. But in the last few days, there have been mutterings that the purchase might be subjected to a national security review by the federal government. Are these rumors just Elon’s Hail Mary attempt at killing the deal? Or might they have some merit? And what will either outcome mean for Twitter?
For object lessons, Alan recommended the new film "Argentina, 1985." Quinta endorsed the novel "Grey Bees" by Andrey Kurkov for those wanting to sample some modern Ukrainian literature. Scott urged listeners who share his space obsessions to check out "For All Mankind," one of the best shows he's seen on television. And Julian recommended the BBC documentary series "Rome: Empire Without Limit" by Mary Beard for those wanting to reflect a bit on the rise and decline of great powers.
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott flew solo to talk through some of the week's big national security news stories, including:
“Jake, Mr. Sullivan if You’re NSSty.” The Biden administration finally unveiled its long awaited (and overdue) National Security Strategy last week, through a high-profile event at Georgetown University featuring National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Does it hit the mark? Does it even matter?
“Big Subpoena Energy.” The Jan. 6 committee confidently closed its last live session with a bang last week, in the form of a unanimous vote to subpoena former President Trump for his testimony. Trump responded with a 14-page rant a few days later that repeated many of his grievances over the 2020 election but did not address whether he would comply. Why did the committee take this step? Is there any way to compel Trump to cooperate? Will it need to?
“Is it SIGINT or SIJINT?” The Biden administration has issued a new Executive Order limiting its collection of signals intelligence, as part of an effort to come to agreement with the European Union’s legal system and its stringent privacy protections. Will these new arrangements be invalidated by European courts like their two predecessors? Or could they finally be up to snuff?
For object lessons, Alan recommended the impressive (if highly depressing) new European sci-fi film "Vesper." Quinta seconded Carlos Lozada's takedown of one of the Senate's most milquetoast members. And Scott celebrated the 90th birthday of a real legal legend and all around phenomenal human, Judge Guido Calabresi.
The "Third Anniversary Hot Take Takedown: Comeuppance" Edition
05 Sep 2024
01:10:56
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott celebrated the third anniversary of Rational Security 2.0 with their Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds, Natalie Orpett, and Tyler McBrien, who sat in brutal judgment as the three co-hosts pitched them their hottest takes yet, including:
Are concerns about judicial ethics overblown?
Do ethics require that we open the borders and make whoever wants to become one a citizen?
Should we just treat AI systems like the wild animals they are?
Which takes are undercooked, which too hot, and which are just right? Listen in and decide!
Meanwhile, for object lessons, Scott shared some news about the future of Rational Security moving forward. Listen to the end of the episode to find out what!
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by beloved Lawfare contributor and UVA Law professor Ashley Deeks, fresh from her latest stint at the White House. They hashed through some of the week's big national security news, including:
“The Bridge and Pummel Crowd.” Ukraine’s destruction of a symbolic bridge linking Russia to Crimea has observers worried about a new round of escalation, as Russia responded with missile strikes on a range of civilian targets across the country, including a German consulate in Kyiv, with promises of more to come. Are we entering a new, brutal phase of the conflict? What can be done to stop its civilian toll—or to keep the escalatory spiral from spinning out of control?
“Finally, Some Decency and Moderation on the Supreme Court.” Last week, the Supreme Court took up not one but two—albeit, two closely related—cases that center on how to apply Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, a law that provides internet companies with immunity for liability arising from user-generated content they host and protects their ability to moderate content. What might this judicial scrutiny mean for the future of content moderation on the internet?
“1,001 Arabian Slights.” Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut oil production—a move expected to drive up oil prices and slow the global economy, to the benefit of Russia and other producers—has some members of Congress up in arms. This is especially true as it came on the end of a summer visit by President Biden that controversially seemed to signal a willingness to thaw relations with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which have grown icy since his involvement in the 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. What do these steps mean for the future of the U.S.-Saudi relationship?
For object lessons, Alan shared his wife's love for ch-ch-ch-chia pets. Quinta shared a story of voter fraud and corruption in one of America's greatest institutions: NPS's Fat Bear Week competition. Scott shared his joyfully music-filled week and urged listeners to check out his favorite album of all time, celebrating its 20th anniversary. And Ashley passed along a revealing story about the fake Vermeer discovered at the National Gallery of Art.
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott sat down with unofficial fourth co-host, Lawfare executive editor Natalie Orpett, to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:
“That’s one, one disqualified elector. (Ah ah ah.)” Both the House and Senatefinally seem ready to reform the Electoral Count Act, the ambiguity-ridden statute that has (kind of) governed how Congress counts electoral votes since 1887. What threats to our elections process will these reforms fix? Which will they leave unaddressed?
“It’s No Longer A-Me, Mario.” Recent elections are set to replace Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi with none other than Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy movement. What does her victory mean for democracy in Italy and across Europe?
“Narcnado.” The Treasury Department’s decision to sanction Tornado Cash, an open source cryptocurrency tumbler, has privacy and technology advocates crying foul. Will the sanctions survive a coming legal challenge? Does it put First Amendment rights at risk?
For object lessons, Alan confessed his love of Jon Hamm, particularly in the movie "Confess, Fletch." Quinta recommended journalist David Enrich's deep dive into the big law firm Jones Day, "Servants of the Damned." Scott urged listeners to check out both his long-awaited report on standing doctrine and the late Loretta Lynn's rocker "Portland, Oregon" off her album with Jack White, "Van Lear Rose." And Natalie passed along a recent very real, non-satirical filing before the Supreme Court by America's finest news source, The Onion.
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare managing editor Tyler McBrien to hash through the week's big national security news, including:
“Bad Vlad’s Sad Grab Has Leningrad a Tad Mad.” Russian President Vladimir Putin seems intent on escalating the conflict in Ukraine, as he’s mobilized thousands of civilian conscripts and is on the verge of incorporating separatist parts of the country into Russia following a sham referendum. But will the Russian people stand for these new actions? And what will they mean for the future of the conflict?
“What’s Farsi for Riotgrrrl?” Young Iranians have taken to the streets for women’s rights following the apparent killing of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was arrested by religious police for failing to adequately cover her hair. Could this be a real threat to the Iranian regime? And what will it mean for hard-line President Raisi and the ailing Ayatollah Khameini?
“Cannon as Anticanon.” Everyone’s favorite federal district court judge Aileen Cannon has had the part of her order requiring that a special master review even classified records seized from former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate slapped down by the 11th Circuit. Where is the case—and the broader investigation—likely to go from here?
For object lessons, Alan recommended the long awaited mainstream press treatment of the Hunter Biden laptop story (over Quinta's reservations). Quinta memorialized "Wolf Hall" author Hilary Mantel, who recently passed away. Scott celebrated the Renaissance of fantasy television by giving his stamp of the approval to the debut season of Rings of Power. And Tyler endorsed both the solo movie date and the documentary Riotsville, USA that he recently took in.
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott went guestless to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:
“Ne Me Quitte Pas.” The nearby island nation of Haiti is hitting new levels of instability, as paired economic and political crises have given way to open gang warfare in broad swathes of the country. While the events have some calling for external intervention, others have expressed major reservations with such a step, given its past failings in the country. Where might this crisis lead?
“I’m Rubber, You’re Su(ing).” Last week, the Fifth Circuit released a real barn-burner of an opinion in the matter of NetChoice v. Paxton, wherein it adopted a narrow reading of the First Amendment in order to resurrect a Texas law severely limiting how social media platforms can moderate content. What will this case mean for platforms moving forward?
“Flying Worst Class.” Florida Governor Ron Desantis became the latest Republican governor this week to fly undocumented migrants to northern cities in purported protest of the Biden administration’s immigration policies. But his move has sparked unexpected furor among Florida’s Cuban and Venezuelan immigrant communities—as well as at least one criminal investigation. What was he thinking and where will this controversy go next?
For object lessons, Alan endorsed his and his wife's new favorite seasonal sweet treat: salted maple ice cream. Quinta highlighted a recent judicial opinion that appeared to mix up two of the judge's favorite philosophers: Plato and Donald Rumsfeld. And Scott celebrated his most recent homemade hot sauce success: turning tabasco chilis into "peppa sauce."
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott sat down with Lawfare deputy foreign policy editor and RatSec rookie Dana Stuster, to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:
“Chechens Coming Home to Roost.” Ukraine’s surprise counteroffensive in Kharkiv has proven to be a massive success, leading Russian troops to surrender seized territory as they beat a retreat. At the same time, supporters of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—including Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov—are becoming more openly critical of how the Russian government is managing the campaign. What will these setbacks mean for the future of the conflict—and the Putin regime itself?
“Did You Know You Can Eat Them With the Skins On?” Last week, Cloudflare announced that, due to “an unprecedented emergency and immediate threat to human life,” it would cease providing security services to Kiwi Farms, an internet forum infamous for coordinating harassment and doxxing campaigns. Should essential service providers like Cloudflare be put in the position of policing online content in this way? What’s the alternative?
“Spoilers for Season 5 of ‘The Crown.’” For almost a century, Queen Elizabeth II was a stable presence in global politics, even as her country—and the global order it helped shape—transitioned from an era of empire and colonialism through an international Cold War and into the modern era. What might her death mean for the monarchy and the world moving forward?
For object lessons, Alan (and his dentist) thanked Quinta for supporting his saltwater taffy habit. Quinta shared a Civil War-era meme. Scott endorsed the once-and-forever named Tappan Zee Bridge and surrounding Palisades as a lovely way to transit through NYC. And Dana shared a book very appropriate for this moment of reflection on British history, David Ziblatt's classic "Conservative Parties and the Birth of Democracy."
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by co-host emeriti Ben Wittes and Shane Harris for a very special anniversary edition of Rational Security that pits their national security hot takes up against each other.
Which of the following takes will the team find to be "too hot," which "undercooked," and which "just right"?
Americans (and especially progressives) will regret reviving the prospect of disqualifying people under section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
Over the next year, there will be a windfall of information regarding unidentified aerial phenomena, including some pointing to possible extraterrestrial origin.
A President Ron Desantis won't be as dangerous as President Donald Trump.
Russia's terminal decline presents one of the greatest threats to global security.
American democracy will be saved by social conservative minorities voting for the Republican Party.
For object lessons, Alan endorsed his favorite children's book about affectionate penguins (of many), "I Like it When" by Mary Murphy. Quinta recommended Garret Graff's new eponymous book on Watergate, "Watergate." Scott urged D.C. area residents to visit Wheatland Spring Farm and Brewery on their next trip out to Purcellville, VA, and try their "Land + Waters" farmhouse ale for a true taste of Virginia. Ben thanked Scott for supporting him through his crippling dog shirt addiction, even though that support has now reached its limits. And Shane recommended a non-spy book by "the American LeCarre" Charles McCarry, entitled "The Bride of the Wilderness," as well as the famous used bookstore where he bought it: "The Bookstore" in Lenox, MA.
On this anniversary-eve edition, Alan, Quinta, and Scott reunited to hash through this week’s big national security stories, including:
“The Other Other Nuclear Option.” Hostilities in Ukraine are getting perilously close to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, with each side accusing the other of recklessly pursuing military in its vicinity. The IAEA is sending in a team to help secure the site. But what difference can the international community make? Does it need a different response?
“Biting the Hand that Retweets You.” A new report indicates that Meta and Twitter have taken down a network of accounts associated with a pro-Western information operation critical of China, Russia, and Iran. Should the United States and its allies be engaging in these sorts of activities? How should social media platforms be treating them?
“Fixing the CivCas Mismatch.” The Defense Department has rolled out a long awaited new policy aimed at finally accomplishing that many have long agreed on in principle, but have disagreed on how to prioritize: reducing civilian casualties from U.S. military operations. What does it do and is it likely to work?
For object lessons, Alan celebrated his recent trip to Miami by passing along a recipe for arroz con pollo. Quinta made up for last week with a double-headed set of endorsements: the Twitter feed @WatergateDayOf, which helps readers relive the Watergate scandal one day at a time, and the new Mountain Goats album "Bleed Out.” And Scott urged listeners to get excited about the most exciting biopic of a musician to come out in years: "Weird: The Al Yankovic Story."
This week, a Quinta-less Alan and Scott were joined by host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week's big national security stories, including:
“Sometimes the Best Defense is a New Offensive.” With apparent U.S. support, Ukraine is bringing the fight to Crimea and other Russian-held areas—and perhaps to the streets of Moscow itself, where a well-known Russian nationalist’s car and daughter were detonated this past week. What are the risks of this new strategy? And how far will (or should) the United States go in its support?
“The Enemy of my Frenemy is my…Enemenemy?” Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement appeared to hold significant (if not absolute) sway in several recent Republican primaries, where a number of election-denying candidates won—several with help from the DCCC, who supported them against more moderate opponents in hopes of having weaker competition in the general election. How might this strategy impact democratic norms and the rule of law?
“Special Masters and the Don/Sub(tweet) Relationship.” As more problematic facts regarding former President Donald Trump’s possession of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate come forward, his lawyers have put forward a novel argument seeking a special master to oversee what happens to the records recovered—one that hinges on Trump’s ability to assert executive privilege against the Executive Branch. What should we make of this argument and what does this case seem to mean for Trump's legacy moving forward?
For object lessons, Alan stuck it to the state of Iowa with his endorsement of the Minnesota State Fair and its rightly celebrated butter sculptor. Scott took over Quinta's traditional role and endorsed a New Yorker article, specifically Adam Entous' deep dive into President Biden's family history. And Ben urged listeners to check out the forthcoming nine-part series he, Matt Gluck, and Tia Sewell have forthcoming in Lawfare, documenting all of the evidence that the Jan. 6 committee put forward regarding former President Trump's conduct.
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by their fellow Lawfare senior editor Molly Reynolds to talk through a week of big national security news stories, including:
“Regrets? I’ve had a few.” One year has passed since the chaotic U.S. exit from Afghanistan, which triggered the collapse of the U.S.-backed government and the return to power of the Taliban. What have we learned from this experience? And how should it inform U.S. engagement with Afghanistan moving forward?
“Half-Truths and Reconciliation.” Democrats in Congress have scored a huge climate win in the form of the somewhat strangely named Inflation Reduction Act, which passed both chambers by the slimmest of margins through a special procedure known as reconciliation that bypasses the supermajority requirement that the Senate usually operates under thanks to the filibuster. How big a deal is this? And is it a model that other policy proposals can follow?
“Déclassé.” While the Justice Department weighs whether to release more documents regarding its search of Mar-a-Lago, former President Trump has offered a new explanation as to why he had so many classified documents in a storage unit there: he’d had a standing order to declassify whatever classified records he wanted to bring home with him. What is the latest in the investigation and where does it seem to be headed?
For object lessons, Alan endorsed another audiobook he's enjoying through Libby: Erik Larson's "The Splendid and the Vile.” Quinta noted her pleasant surprise that author Mary Gaitskill appears to have started a surprisingly good substack. Scott recommended a bunch of media he has been involved in on the one-year anniversary of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, including a segment on the most recent episode of "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver," a recent episode of the radio and podcast series Reveal, and of course Lawfare's own audio series on the collapse of the Afghan SIV program entitled Allies. And, because it was Primary Day in Alaska, Molly took the occasion to remind us all of the secret sauce behind Lisa Murkowski's historic 2010 Senate win as a write-in candidate: some carefully calculated flyers (involving pictures of cows and skis) that instructed voters how to spell her name.
The “Very Model of a Modern Major General” Edition
10 Aug 2022
01:01:37
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by special guest Ravi Agrawal, editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy magazine, to hash through the week's big national security news, including:
“Canned Strategy.” The war in Ukraine and tensions over Taiwan have led the Biden administration to further revise its long overdue National Security Strategy, which it now intends to release in the fall. What do we already know about Biden’s grand strategy? And how should we evaluate it?
“Mar-a-Leggo My Federal Records.” Yesterday, the FBI executed a search of former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, reportedly in search of classified documents that Trump had retained in violation of federal records laws. How serious a step is this and what does it mean for the broader universe of investigations surrounding Trump and his associates?
“Milley Not So Vanilli.” A shocking new report details former President Trump’s contentious relationship with his generals—including a particularly contentious relationship with his Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley that has some experts concerned about civ-mil relations. Were Milley and the other generals out of line? Is there reason to be concerned moving forward?
For object lessons, Alan gave a double-headed recommendation: for the late David McCullough, and specifically his eponymous biography of John Adams; and the lovely town of Asheville, NC. Quinta passed along Caitlin Dickerson's investigation of the Trump administration's child separation policies in The Atlantic, "The Secret History of the U.S. Government's Family-Separation Policy." Scott celebrated the discovery of the greatest food hack in history, which he acquired via Dan Souza's YouTube series, "What's Eating Dan?": putting cream of tartar on fresh tomatoes (along with salt, pepper, and sugar) to make even mediocre ones delicious. And Ravi urged listeners to check out both Foreign Policyand his podcast there, Global Reboot.
This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler "Spicy Tyler" McBrien to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:
“Jack Smith Takes a Mulligan on his Big Swing.” A grand jury has re-indicted former President Trump for his actions relating to the Jan. 6 insurrection, after Special Counsel Jack Smith trimmed and massaged the allegations to accommodate the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential immunity. How different is this indictment? What are the next steps in the trial? And will these new allegations have better odds of surviving Supreme Court review?
“An Eye for an Eye Leaves the Whole World in a Bind.” This past week, Israel and Hezbollah traded another vicious round of attacks along Israel’s shared northern border with Lebanon, as part of the long-awaited response to Israel’s targeted killing of Hezbollah leaders a month ago. Now the region is waiting with bated breath to see whether this will be the end of it or the start of a larger war. How significant is the risk of escalation? And what will this mean for, among other things, ongoing ceasefire negotiations in relation to Gaza?
“Send Me a Kiss by Wire.” Pavel Durov, the CEO of the Russia-based encrypted messaging platform Telegram—which, in addition to being the platform of choice in much of the world, has become a popular choice among criminals and terrorist groups due to its lack of content moderation—was arrested earlier this week in Paris, and is under questioning in relation to possible criminal charges arising from the criminal use of Telegram. What is motivating this move by French authorities?
For object lessons, Quinta recommended "When a Department Self-Destructs," Jennifer Schoenefeld's dramatic account of the in-fighting within Pomona College's English department. Scott threw his endorsement in (alongside the Academy's) for the beautifully mumblecore-ish film "Past Lives." And Tyler urged listeners to check out Tanya Gold's upsetting account of the commercialization of the Holocaust, tellingly entitled "My Auschwitz Vacation."
This week, Alan, Quinta, Scott, and favorite guest Lawfare executive editor Natalie Orpett got together to discuss the week's big national security news, including:
“Another One Bites the Dust.” This past weekend, an American drone strike successfully killed yet another major terrorist leader—this time al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri—in downtown Kabul, while apparently avoiding any civilian casualties or significant collateral damage. What does the strike tell us about the Biden administration's counterterrorism strategy and the role it plays in his broader global agenda?
“Maybe He Just Mixed Up His St. Petersburgs.” In Florida, the Justice Department has indicted Russian agent Aleksandr Viktorovich Ionov for engaging in an array of political activities on behalf of fringe political candidates and organizations, with the alleged goal of promoting political instability at the Russian government's behest. What light does this indictment shed on Russian interference in American politics?
“The Bully Cockpit.” Over reported objections from the Biden administration, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has flown to Taiwan, making her the most senior U.S. official to visit the hotly contested island in more than two decades and raising China's ire at what many say is a sensitive moment. Is her trip helpful or foolhardy? And what does it tell us about Congress's role in U.S. foreign relations?
For object lessons, Alan urged readers check out a recent Russian propaganda video, but made clear he did not endorse it. Quinta recommended Annie Lowrey's recent Atlanticarticle on her difficult pregnancy experiences and what they mean in a post-Dobbs world, "American Motherhood." Scott made two very different pop culture recommendations: the intense food freak drama The Bear and the delightful surf documentary satire with penguins Surf's Up. And Natalie recommended one of her favorite cookbooks, The Immigrant Cookbook, which feature recipes and compelling stories from new and first-generation Americans.
This week, most of Alan, Quinta, Scott, and co-host emeritus Ben Wittes got together to discuss the week's big national security news, including:
“It’s Over, but Don’t Leave Before the Mid-Credits Sequence.” The Jan. 6 committee held its final primetime hearing this past Thursday, focused on Trump’s inaction in ending the riot on Jan. 6. But it’s suggested more may be coming. What has the committee accomplished and what is yet to come?
“Oh, HIMARS.” The war in Ukraine has become a slow and difficult grind, as Russian forces backed by heavy artillery have made slow but steady progress towards their revised goal of controlling the breakaway Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. But Ukraine recently received what it claims is a game changer—the HIMARS rocket system—and wants the United States to give it more. What does this tell us about the dynamics around its import for Ukraine, the risks of escalation, and where the conflict may be headed in this new phase?
“Orange is the New Three Stupid Shirt Collars Right On Top of Each Other for No Goddamn Reason.” Steve Bannon is going to jail, after being found guilty of contempt of Congress—and assuming that the conviction holds up on appeal. What will his conviction mean for the Jan. 6 investigation and future inquiries?
For object lessons, Alan recommended a recent episode of Lawfare's own daily Lawfare Podcast focused on Moore v. Harper and the implications of independent state legislature doctrine. Quinta urged listeners to check out Isaac Chotiner's withering new interview with Alan Dershowitz regarding his cancellation by his neighbors on Martha's Vineyard. Scott passed along a new favorite cocktail with a name very appropriate for the modern era, the Palpable Apathy. And Ben urged folks to check out his latest 3D printing experiment: a baby HIMARS, ready to be shipped to Ukraine.
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott got together for another early morning session to hash through the week's big national security news, including:
“Stuck in the Middle (East) with You.” As President Biden ends his trip to the Middle East having re-engaged the Gulf countries and recommitted to preventing Iran from securing a nuclear weapon—including by force, if necessary—Russian President Vladimir Putin is kicking off his own visit to deepen ties with Tehran and negotiate with Turkey. What does this mean for regional security, the lagging Iran nuclear talks, and the U.S. pivot to Asia?
“Qualified Incredulity.” The Justice Department has finally weighed in on former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows’s arguments that executive privilege prevents the Jan. 6 committee from compelling his testimony. And while it didn’t back his position, it was more friendly to his general position than one might expect. What should we make of its approach?
“Georgia on My ASS.” Prosecutors from the Peach State are proving a lot less cautious about investigating misconduct following the 2020 elections than the Justice Department, to the point that they may soon begin indicting associates of President Trump. What explains this different approach and where might it lead?
As for object lessons, Alan recommended a New Yorkerarticle on "The Haves and the Have Yachts." Quinta endorsed a recent episode of Radiolabon the fascinating human story behind the famous Daubert legal standard. And Scott encouraged independent film fans to check out the work of his friends at The Sac Chich Project, an independent film collective, and consider lending them some support.
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were reunited to hash through the week's national security news, including:
“A Thousand and One Arabian Flights.” President Biden is conducting his first official visit to the Middle East this week with the stated goal of building ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, beginning with more direct airline routes. Why this sudden high-profile engagement and what does Biden hope it will yield?
“Loose Bannon.” Trump ally Steve Bannon has signaled that he may be willing to speak to the Jan. 6th committee after all, just as his contempt trial for refusing to do so gets under way and a disagreement between the former president’s lawyers and his own regarding whether he can invoke executive privilege goes public. What does this all mean for his legal future?
“Crossing the International Hate Line.” FBI Director Chris Wray and his U.K. counterpart recently made a joint statement on the growing international ties between violent right-wing nationalist movements in various Western countries. What could this mean for counterterrorism strategy moving forward?
This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare's new Managing Editor, Tyler McBrien, to hash through the week's national security news, including:
“(John) Dean for a Day.” Surprise testimony by former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson has shed unprecedented light on Donald Trump’s actions on Jan. 6th and reinvigorated discussions of possible criminal charges, among other consequences. Was this the smoking gun? What might it change moving forward?
“When Federalism Gets Weird.” The Supreme Court has taken up Moore v. Harper, promising that it will soon weigh in on the controversial proposition that the Constitution gives state legislatures authority over federal elections that even state constitutions and courts cannot supersede. What could this case mean for American democracy?
For object lessons, Quinta endorsed a visual demonstration of the challenges of historical research posted by law professor Julian Mortenson. Scott urged listeners to think outside the box while using their grills this summer, most notably by making the most under appreciated grill option: grill pizza. And Tyler endorsed Rebecca Solnit's new biography of George Orwell as a gardener, Orwell's Roses.
Some of the other pieces we discussed in this episode include:
Alan Rozenshtein and Jed Shugerman's article for Lawfaredocumenting how Cassidy Hutchinson's testimony convinced the former President Trump could be criminally prosecuted;
Former federal judge and conservative legal luminary Michael Luttig's Twitter thread on the originalism and federalism issues with independent state legislature doctrine.
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by star New York Timesreporter Katie Benner to talk through some of this week's biggest national security news stories, including:
“The Masked Ringer.” We’re about half way through the Jan. 6 committee’s public hearings—and, despite originally planning a weeks-long pause, the committee is now holding a snap hearing with a surprise witness. What should we make of the hearings so far? And what may we continue to learn?
For object lessons, Katie gave a strong endorsement to Rachel McAdams's work as a narrator on the audiobook of "Anne of Green Gables" and shared stories of some of her own adventures on Prince Edward Island. Alan recommended Rinker Buck's book "The Oregon Trail." Quinta shared a story wherein a store clerk greeted Rudy Giuliani the only appropriate way: "What's up, scumbag." And Scott recommended a forthcoming law review article, "The New Abortion Battleground," for a fascinating if sobering overview of what the post-Dobbs legal landscape may look like.
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott flew solo to discuss the week's big national security news, including:
“Just Dropped in to See What Condition This Extradition is In.” The U.K. government has signed off on the extradition of Wikileaks founder Julian Assange, putting him one step closer to trial in the United States. Are claims that his extradition threatens press freedoms fact or hyperbole? And what do we expect the Biden administration to do if it happens?
“Teach Xi How to Dougie.” A recently revealed internal report has revealed that, despite corporate commitments to Congress, substantial customer data held by the company TikTok can still be accessed by personnel at its Chinese parent company. Does the Biden administration need to revisit its position towards the app? Or China’s technology sector more generally?
“Not the Droid We’re Looking For.” An engineer was suspended last week for going public with his belief that Google’s LaMDA artificial intelligence program had achieved sentience. Is this a possibility worth taking seriously? What role should the possibility (or potential appearance) of sentience play in AI policy, if any?
For object lessons, Alan endorsed Viet Thanh Nguyen's literature/spy thriller mash-up "The Sympathizer." Quinta shared her favorite John Eastman quote—“I’ve decided that I should be on the pardon list, if that is still in the works”—and dared listeners to find a New Yorkercartoon where it wouldn't work as a caption. And Scott urged listeners to check out their local arboretum or botanical garden, and gave a special acknowledgement to the late William Gotelli, the "man who loved conifers" and donated his massive, continent-spanning collection to the National Arboretum, where they are now Scott's favorite section.
Here are a few other articles the RatSec crew mentioned in the course of the episode:
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare executive editor Natalie Orpett to talk through some the week's big national security news, including:
“First Act Break.” We are one week into the Jan. 6 committee’s public hearings. What have we learned that we didn’t know already? And how effective are they proving to be?
“Not Since the Sultans of Swing.” A dire situation is once again brewing over the straits of Taiwan, as China and the United States rattled sabers at the regional Shangri-La Dialogue as the former rejected the Taiwan Strait’s status as international waters. And they received an unlikely assist from Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky, who sent in a video message calling for the region to defend Taiwan from possible Chinese aggression. Is Ukraine pushing China and the United States closer to a conflict over Taiwan? How should the international community respond?
“A Big Win for Big Sisters.” Last week, a mentally ill young man aborted plans to murder Brett Kavanaugh and surrendered to police just outside the Supreme Court justice’s home on the advice of his sister. Since then, Congress has gone from near unanimous support for stronger security measures for the Supreme Court to increasingly partisan loggerheads over how to provide it. What explains the strange trajectory of these debates? And what does it tell us?
For object lessons, Alan gave a strong endorsement to "Top Gun: Maverick" as the rare sequel that is better than the original material—and a tribute to Tom Cruise's apparent death wish. Quinta revisited Bill Stepien's last turn in the public eye: as a major player in the NJ-NY scandal Bridgegate. Scott embraced his spicy boi nature by passing along a home hot sauce recipe and asked listeners for their own recommendations. And Natalie recommended some companion listening for the Jan. 6 committee hearings: the podcast Will Be Wild and Lawfare's own The Aftermath.
Here are a couple of other articles the RatSec crew mentioned in the course of the episode:
Andrew Kohut's analysis of how Watergate eroded public support for President Nixon
This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare senior editor and congressional expert Molly Reynolds to hash through the week's big national security news stories, including:
“Disquiet on the Eastern Front.” While Russia has been beaten back in most of the rest of the country, its efforts to hold secessionist eastern Ukraine are proving more resilient and producing what some are calling a war of attrition. What does this tell us about what the next phase of the conflict is likely to look like? And what does it mean for U.S. policy?
“It's Time to Play the Music, It's Time to Light the Lights, It's Time to Meet the Suspects on Primetime Thursday Night.” At long last, the Jan. 6 committee is set to hold its first public hearing later this week, during evening prime-time. What are we expecting from the hearings? And what should we be on the lookout for?
“An Exercise of Prosecutorial Concession.” Last week, the Justice Department opted to move forward with the prosecution of one former Trump administration official for refusing to cooperate with the Jan. 6 committee’s investigation, but declined to prosecute two other former officials who had also been referred by the committee for contempt. Why did the Justice Department take a different tack in these cases? And what does it mean for congressional investigations moving forward?
For object lessons, Alan recommended both the library book and audiobook accessing app Libby and Bruce Levine's portrait of the last days of the antebellum South, "The Fall of the House of Dixie." Quinta provided a reminder that U.S. politics has always been vitriolic. Scott was surprised to find himself strongly recommending the new documentary "Val," documenting the life of actor Val Kilmer. And Molly celebrated the return of the premiere show about Scandinavian parliamentary intrigue, "Borgen"!
This week, Alan, Quinta and Scott flew solo as they talked through the week's big national security news stories, including:
“Our Gun Epidemic.” Last week’s horrifying school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, is only the latest high-profile incident in a wave of gun violence that is sweeping the United States. But most experts maintain that there is almost no chance Congress will pursue any serious substantive response. Why do guns play such a central role in American culture? And how do we make progress on combating gun violence in spite of it?
“Feenluond und Sveeden ond borgen NATO, si Erdogan needou torgin bi borgen. Bork bork bork.” Sweden is moving closer every day to joining NATO, as is its neighbor Finland–if, that is, their applications are not derailed by Turkish President Erdogan or another objector within the alliance. What are the pros and cons of NATO expansion in these cases? And where should it go next?
“Revenge is a Dish Best Served Covered in a Tacky Amount of Gold.” Former President Trump’s revenge campaign against Republicans who openly accepted his defeat in the 2020 election ran aground in the state of Georgia last week, as a slate of Trump-backed candidates lost in Republican primaries to the incumbents who certified his election loss. Next on his target list appears to be Rep. Liz Cheney, who is facing a hard primary fight in Wyoming. What should we make of this campaign–and what might it mean for the rule of law and election security moving forward?
Listeners should be sure to check out the newest podcast series from Lawfare and Goat Rodeo, Allies, which does a deep dive into how the decade-long failure of the Afghan Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) program led the United States to leave so many allies behind following its withdrawal from Afghanistan. The first four episodes are out: subscribe today and leave a positive review!
This week, Alan and Quinta sat down with Molly Reynolds and Kevin Frazier to talk about the week’s big developments, including:
“It can always get worse…” Although President Biden’s replacement by Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket has reenergized the Democrats’ bid to retain the White House, the race is still a tossup, and former President Trump could well reenter the White House in 2025. Have we successfully “Trump-proofed” the government in anticipation?
“Run DNC.” The Democratic National Convention is taking place this week in Chicago, and it’s a striking contrast to last month’s Republican convention. That event was largely a celebration of one person, Donald Trump. By contrast, the DNC is as much about the party as it is about its nominee, Kamala Harris. What does it say about the relative strengths of America’s two parties and what that means for the future of American democracy?
“Making the Three Laws of Robotics Actual Laws?” California’s SB 1047, the controversial AI safety law, is set to pass the legislature this month and head to Governor Gavin Newsom’s desk for his signature or veto. Many in the AI industry, as well as even some members of California’s own congressional delegation, oppose the bill on the grounds that it will harm innovation. Others, on the other side, worry that the bill doesn’t do enough to protect against AI harms. What’s actually in the bill, and what would its passage mean for the future of AI?
This week, Alan, Quinta and Scott were joined by Rational Security co-host emeritus Shane Harris! Together they talked through the week's big national security news stories, including:
“We Want to Believe.” The House recently held a rare public hearing on what the U.S. government knows about Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, or UAPs–also commonly called Unidentified Flying Objects, or UFOs. What did we learn about UAPs and how is U.S. policy towards them changing?
“Strategic Incongruity.” President Biden once again said the United States would defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression, only to have White House staff roll back his statement and confirm that there has been no change in the longstanding U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity” on this issue. Can this policy survive the president’s repeated statements? And if so, what’s replacing it?
“Getting Thirsty in Hungary.” The premiere U.S. conservative organization CPAC is holding a part of its annual conference in Hungary, where far right leader Viktor Orban called for a transnational conservative movement. What will this budding relationship mean for the future of conservative movements at home and abroad?
For object lessons, Quinta encouraged folks to revisit Terry Pratchett's classic "Discworld" series, a formative reading experience in her childhood (which explains a great deal). Alan recommended the new Apple+ series on dysfunctional British spies, "Slow Horses." Scott endorsed Andy Weir's latest book "Project Hail Mary" for its amazing worldbuilding, if not necessarily its prose. And Shane gave his wholehearted endorsement to Jamie Kirchick's forthcoming new book "Secret City," which details the often hidden role gay people have played in D.C.-based policy and politics, including in national security.
And listeners should definitely check out the newest podcast series from Lawfare and Goat Rodeo, Allies, which does a deep dive into how the decade-long failure of the Afghan Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) program led the United States to leave so many allies behind following its withdrawal from Afghanistan. The first three episodes are out: subscribe today and leave a positive review!
This week, Alan, Quinta and Scott were joined by Allies host and Lawfare associate editor Bryce Klehm! Together they talked through the week's big national security news stories, including:
"Remember the ‘90s?” Nine months have passed since the Taliban seized power in Kabul, and its promises of a more moderate rule than the harsh theocracy it oversaw in the 1990s are increasingly ringing hollow. Just this past week, the Taliban issued a new edict directing women and girls to cover everything but their eyes while in public and discouraging them from leaving their homes. Is there any chance of the Taliban changing tack? And how should the United States and others engage with them?
“A Shooting in Buffalo.” An 18-year-old shooter who targeted and killed black shoppers at a supermarket this past week appears to have been radicalized online by a version of “replacement theory,” which has been echoed in rhetoric by mainstream right-wing political figures ranging from Tucker Carlson to Elise Stefanik. How should platforms and policymakers combat such radicalization to prevent more violence?
“It’s Coming from Inside the House.” The Jan. 6 committee took a dramatic step earlier this week when it issued subpoenas to five House Republicans who had refused to voluntarily participate with its investigation, including minority leader Kevin McCarthy. Why did the committee take this step now? And what are the odds it will lead these members to cooperate?
For object lessons, Alan endorsed Emily St. John Mandel's newest piece of sci-fi literature, "Sea of Tranquility." Quinta celebrated the miraculous recovery of her house plant. Scott encouraged listeners to check out an overlooked and underappreciated chapter in the Muppets' oeuvre, the 2015 adult sitcom "The Muppets." And Bryce recommended an old television show folks might not have heard of called "The Sopranos" for some insight into mafia-style management.
And everyone encouraged listeners to check out the newest podcast series from Lawfare and Goat Rodeo, Allies, which does a deep dive into how the decade-long failure of the Afghan Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) program led the United States to leave so many allies behind following its withdrawal from Afghanistan. The first two episodes are out: subscribe today and leave us a positive review!
This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by RatSec 1.0 host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:
“Sharing is Caring.” Earlier this week, an unnamed senior U.S. official indicated that the United States is providing targeting information to Ukrainian forces–only to have other officials walk back that assertion almost immediately. What is actually happening? And why is the Biden administration so paranoid about discussing it openly?
“The Chief’s Thief.” Recent revelations have shown that former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows played an integral role in leading efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 elections in the lead up to the Jan. 6 insurrection. But the Justice Department still has taken no steps toward prosecuting him for contempt of Congress for refusing to fully comply with the Jan. 6 committee’s investigation. What should we make of Meadows? And what should be done about him?
“Trolling Alone.” Incidents of harassment and hostility are an increasingly commonplace feature of our political discourse, particularly for public officials working on hot button issues. What should we make of this breakdown in civility? What causes it? And where may it lead?
For object lessons, Quinta passed along Susan Dominus's eye-opening piece on “The Nightmare of Being a Surrogate Mother in the Ukraine War.” Scott recommended NASA's amazing virtual tour of the solar system to all his fellow stargazers (as well as astronomer Paul Byrne's amazing Twitter account). And Ben announced a new podcast experiment he is launching: live discussions with Ukrainians living on the front lines.
Plus here are a few other stories we mentioned or recommended:
Politico’s piece on the Jan. 6 committee’s focus on junior aides and staff;
Frank Michelman’s classic law review article “Law’s Republic”;
Radiolab’s piece on Israel and the global surrogacy industry, “Birthstory”
We lightly edited and re-posted this episode to eliminate an offensive term that one of our co-hosts used inadvertently. For an explanation and apology, see his Tweet thread here.
This week, Alan, Quinta and Scott were joined by Jeffrey Kosseff, cybersecurity law professor at the U.S. Naval Academy, to hash through some of the week's big national security news, including:
“One Letter Off KGB, Two Letters Away from DGAF.” The Department of Homeland Security has taken heat this week for creating an internal Disinformation Governance Board, which partisan critics have railed against as a federal “Ministry of Truth” responsible for policing speech. What’s the real story behind this group? And does it warrant all this fervor?
“One Bad Mother Tucker.” A newly published New York Times report documents how Tucker Carlson’s Fox News show makes unprecedented use of racist rhetoric and partisan fear-mongering. What new did we learn? And what broader impact should we expect this report to have?
“Chutes and Escalation Ladders.” While Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a habit of invoking his country’s nuclear arsenal in response to Western reactions to his invasion of Ukraine, he so far hasn’t made any signs toward actually using it. But is this about to change? And how should the United States and its allies respond?
For object lessons, Alan endorsed his neighbor's ghost pepper-laced apple brandy, which all listeners should take as an invitation to crash at his place in Minnesota. In light of the pending repeal of Roe v. Wade, Quinta recommended that listeners read Jessica Bruder's “The Future of Abortion in a Post-Roe America." On a similar logic, Scott encouraged listeners to look back to John Hart Ely's 1973 critique of Roe "The Wages of Crying Wolf" for a vision of the pre-Roe legal landscape to which we may be returning. And Jeff recommended one of his favorite musical artists Patty Griffin and her forthcoming album, giving her some of the publicity that she won't pursue herself.
This week, Alan and Scott were joined by Lawfare executive editor Natalie Orpett and law professor extraordinaire Kate Klonick to hash through some of the week's big national security news, including:
“Time to Musk Up.” Prototypical eccentric billionaire Elon Musk has just finalized a deal to purchase Twitter, bring it private and implement a number of changes he claims are intended to expand freedom of speech. What will this mean for the future of Twitter and other social media platforms?
“Lvivin’ so Soon?” The Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State just finished a visit to Kyiv, where they committed more support and to gradually restaff the U.S. diplomatic presence in-country. Why are U.S. diplomats behind Europe in returning to Kyiv? Should the Biden administration move more quickly?
“Too Much MTG Gives Me Headaches.” Georgia representative Marjorie Taylor Greene gave several hours of testimony at a hearing on Friday triggered by efforts by progressive activists to disqualify her from holding office for supporting the Jan. 6 insurrection, pursuant to section 3 of the 14th Amendment. What did we learn about Greene’s activities that day? And what should we make of the broader effort to disqualify legislators?
For object lessons, Alan endorsed the sci-fi action adventure comedy drama "Everything Everywhere All at Once" and its stirring depiction of laundromats and the IRS. Kate shouted out her decade old "Loose Tweets Sink Fleets" poster and celebrated the fact that it becomes more relevant by the day. Scott announced that his effort to make flavored rotten pineapple water succeeded with flying colors, and encouraged listeners to use pineapple scraps to make their own tepache. And Natalie finally took a stand in support of comprehension and encouraged others to do the same with tee shirts that practically shout one's preference for the Oxford Comma from the rooftops.
This week, Alan, Quinta and Scott talked amongst themselves about some of the week's big national security news stories, including:
“What’s in a Name?” Observers of the war in Ukraine are increasingly turning to a controversial term to describe the actions of Russian forces: genocide. Why are people suddenly using this word? Is its use appropriate here?
“Who’s Afraid of Going Dark?” A recent expose has gone deep into the struggle between big tech companies and NSO Group, the Israeli hacking company that has provided various governments around the world with the ability to access users’ phones and other protected communications. What does this tell us about the future of communications security and the role of companies like NSO Group in it.
This week, Alan, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare managing editor Jacob Schulz to hash through some of the week's big national security news, including:
“Le Pen 15 Club.” As France enters the final run-off round of its presidential election, incumbent Emmanuel Macron is being closely trailed by extreme right-wing leader Marine Le Pen. What explains Le Pen’s political potency? And what would a President Le Pen mean for the rest of the world?
“The Biggest Botnet Takedown Since Geocities Deleted My Transformers FanFiction.” The Justice Department recently revealed that the United States and allied governments have been secretly removing Russian malware from global networks in order to thwart potential cyber attacks. What does this strategy tell us about the future of cyber conflict?
“Don’t Trust the DVE in Apartment 23.” Postal inspectors recently stumbled on a pair of heavily armed men impersonating DHS agents while living amidst—and showering expensive gifts on—Secret Service agents and other federal law enforcement officers in a Washington, D.C., apartment complex. What the hell was happening? And should we be concerned?
For object lessons, Alan invoked his love of nut spreads to endorse "pistacchiosa," a Sicilian pistachio spread with which he has recently become enamored. Quinta recommended Jonathan Chait's recent article on Ron DeSantis and Trumpism after Trump (as well as the app Audm). Scott recommended the movie Coco as a next step for those who have gotten sucked into the Disney+ universe by Encanto. And Jacob passed along a representative memento of his recent West Coast trip: the humble (and ubiquitous) skateboard rack.
This week, Alan, Quinta and Scott were joined by their fellow Lawfare senior editor and Brookings Institution senior fellow Molly Reynolds to hash through some of the week's big national security news, including:
“The Butchers of Bucha.” Russian troops who recently retreated from the Kyiv suburb of Bucha appear to have engaged in a weeks-long campaign of violence against the Ukrainian civilians living there, leading some—including President Biden—to call for a war crimes trial. Why would Russia do this? And how should the United States and the world respond?
“To Refer, or Not to Refer, That is the Question.” Even as they rush to get ready for public hearings, Jan. 6 committee members have begun to cast shade on the idea that they will produce a criminal referral of President Trump or anyone else for matters other than contempt of Congress for refusing to comply with its subpoenas. Is this the right move on the committee’s part?
“When Texas Messes with You.” The Supreme Court recently heard oral argument in Torres v. Texas Department of Public Safety, the first case to seriously test the limits of congressional war powers in several decades. What should we expect from this case? And what will it tell us about how our new Supreme Court views war powers and national security?
For object lessons, Alan brought our attention to the possibility that one can be buried not just in a cemetery but in a living forest. Quinta endorsed a New Yorkerarticle by Rachel Aviv on how an Ivy League university turned on a promising young student with a difficult past. Scott recommended the show "Single Drunk Female," a darkly funny exploration of alcoholism and its aftermath that is set in a menagerie of Massachusetts accents. And Molly noted that the U.S. Census Bureau had recently posted a very searchable version of the 1950 census records, which included an interesting observation on her own grandfather.
This week, Alan, Quinta and Scott were joined by RatSec 1.0 host and Lawfare editor-in-chief Benjamin Wittes! They hashed through some of the week's big national security news, including:
“You’re Changing my Regime, What a Wonderful Way to Say How Much You Hate Me.” In recent remarks in Europe, President Biden appeared to call for the removal of Russian President Vladimir Putin–a statement he later reframed as an expression of “moral outrage,” not a call for regime change. Was this a deliberate move or a slip-up? And how significant is it?
“People, Let Me Tell You ‘Bout My Best Friend.” Revelations about his wife Virginia Thomas’s role in the Jan. 6 insurrection have raised questions whether Justice Clarence Thomas should be recusing himself from more cases–including a case governing whether records that might well implicate his wife should be turned over to the Jan. 6 committee. Should Justice Thomas be recusing? And what should be done if he doesn’t?
“Eastman’d and Down, Load it Up and Fuck It, We’re Gonna Do What They Say Can’t Be Done.” Both a federal judge and a former New York prosecutor have concluded that there are credible reasons to believe former President Trump has broken the law. But it’s unclear whether any local, state or federal investigations are likely to lead to criminal charges. Will Trump be held accountable for his actions?
For object lessons, Alan urged listeners to view North Korea's newest propaganda video for its ICBMs in all its glory. Quinta gave a strong endorsement to Taika Waititi's new pirate series, "Our Flag Means Death.” Scott gave an even stronger endorsement to the one kitchen unitasker he can stand. And Ben recommended the refreshingly sexless Finnish police procedural "Deadwind."
The "We Hear The Hague is Lovely in the Springtime" Edition
23 Mar 2022
01:09:34
This week, Alan, Quinta and Scott were joined by international law expert Chimene Keitner to hash through some of the week's big national security news, including:
“Go Straight to Den Haag, Do Not Pass Go, Do Not Collect $200.” In recent days, Russia’s already illegal war in Ukraine has begun to cross more and more legal lines, as Russian forces seem to clearly be targeting civilians and even removing them from Ukrainian territory. What avenues might there be for holding them accountable for these actions? And where should these efforts fit into the broader effort to end the conflict?
“The 400-Pound Hacker in the Room.” Three weeks into the war in Ukraine, Russia has yet to target the United States and its allies with cyberattacks. But this week the White House is aggressively hinting that that may be about to change. Why would the Russians choose now to act? And what should we expect?
“Third-Wave Pessimism.” There are signs that a new wave of the coronavirus may be headed our way. But that didn’t stop Congress from cutting the Biden administration’s request for pandemic resources by $15 billion as mask mandates and other measures have been continually rolled back. How should we be preparing? And what explains Congress’s response?
For object lessons, Alan endorsed the mind-bending new show Severance on (literally) separating work life and home life. Quinta gave a positive review of the new coming-of-age movie Turning Red. In honor of springtime, Scott passed along his favorite warm weather drink option. And Chimene shared a photo of her grandparents and a story of her family's own experience with being refugees from a Russian invasion.
This week, the whole gang—Alan, Quinta, and Scott—got back together to discuss the week's big national security news, including:
“In Post-Soviet Russia, Ukraine Invade You!” In an ironic reversal, Ukraine invaded Russia this past week, seizing substantial portions of the oblast of Kursk and surprising both Russian forces and Ukrainian allies in what appears to be its most successful military venture in more than a year. Why did Ukraine take this step? What will it mean in the longer arc of this war?
“The X is for Extremism.” Since the tragic murder of three young girls earlier this month, the United Kingdom has been struck by violent riots, the perpetrators of which appear to believe (incorrectly) that the attacker in question was a Syrian asylum seeker, in substantial part due to far-right disinformation being spread by social media, including by X owner Elon Musk. What do these events tell us about the effects of disinformation and their intersection with political violence?
“But Our Emails!” The Trump campaign has apparently been hacked, with internal correspondence—including a lengthy vetting paper on vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance—being leaked to reporters. The campaign has blamed Iran, but without any apparent substantiation. Is this a real possibility? Or is it another example of the disinformation—regarding crowd sizes, Kamala Harris’s background, and other topics—that has become a prominent part of the campaign’s messaging?
This week, Alan, Quinta, Scott and guest Lawfare executive editor Natalie Orpett sat down to discuss several of the week's big national security news stories, including:
“The Dragon-Bear Reliance.” Russia is turning to China for help in mitigating some of the more harmful consequences of the measures that the United States and its allies are imposing in response to its invasion of Ukraine. Will China play along? And what will its decision mean for the future of the relationship between the two major powers?
“The Secret Life of Feds.” In a pair of recentcases, the Supreme Court largely upheld the state secrets doctrine that allows the federal government to quash civil litigation that might compromise sensitive government information, even as it hinted at some potential ways it may come under pressure in the future. What does this mean for the doctrine moving forward?
“Garland’s Laurels.” Attorney General Merrick Garland just celebrated one year in office. How should we grade his efforts to restore and reinforce the Justice Department’s traditional norms of political independence and impartiality thus far? And what impact is it having on other parts of his legacy, like his investigation of the Jan. 6 insurrection?
For object lessons, Alan expressed his deep sympathy for the clinginess of the male Santa Maria harlequin toad, who often embraces his mate for months before she finally relents to reproduce. Quinta brought the listeners' attention to Russian news employee Marina Ovsyannikova's brave and heartfelt recent protest on a live newscast against Russia's war in Ukraine. Scott flagged the fact that the Biden administration still hasn't provided the public a copy of a war powers report that was due on March 1st, despite a law requiring that they do so. And Natalie both recommended the book "At Night All Blood is Black" by David Diop and flagged a late-breaking story about negotiations over a possible settlement in the military commissions trial of 9/11 perpetrator Khalid Shaikh Mohammed that would avoid the death penalty.
This week, Alan, Quinta and Scott sat down sans guest to work through some of the week's big national security news, including:
“Like Stalin Without the ‘Stache.” The unpopularity of Russia’s war in Ukraine has led President Vladimir Putin to dramatically constrain what little free media and space for public dissent Russia had left. How will Russia be changed?
“The No-No-Fly-Zone.” The United States and Europe are finding themselves at loggerheads with the beleaguered government of Ukraine over the latter’s request for a No-Fly-Zone and other forms of support that they are so far unwilling to extend. What support should the United States and its allies provide to the Ukrainian government? And where is the line they shouldn’t cross?
“The Crime-Fraud Perception.” A new filing by the Jan. 6 committee points out that it sure looks like President Trump might have committed some crimes in the aftermath of the 2020 election. What does this mean for the future of a possible Justice Department investigation?
For object lessons, Alan expressed his horniness for the annual antler shed hunt that takes place in Jackson Hole, Wyoming each year. Quinta recommended a New Yorkerpiece on the possibility that former congressman and Trump chief-of-staff Mark Meadows engaged in a bit of voter fraud. And Scott shared his new favorite way to drink amaro: all shook up.
This week, Alan, Quinta and Scott sat down for a special episode committed to discussing a very serious topic: the war in Ukraine. They talked through three aspects of the conflict, namely:
“In the Streets of Kyiv.” Over the past week, Ukraine’s fierce resistance has successfully stymied Russian efforts to remove its government. How have the Ukrainians pulled this off? And what does it tell us about the next stage of the conflict?
“On the Global Stage.” While Ukrainians fight the Russian military in the streets, Western nations and their allies have responded by providing the Ukrainians with arms and support while imposing an unprecedented array of sanctions against Russia’s economy. Can these efforts turn the tide in the war? And what other consequences might they have?
“On the Homefront.” While Americans have overwhelmingly rallied in support of Ukraine, even mainstream Republicans have continued to use the crisis to score points against the Biden administration. Meanwhile, the party’s Trump wing has gone even further in complimenting Putin and defending, if not openly supporting, his actions. What impact will the Ukraine conflict have on our domestic political scene–and vice versa?
For object lessons, Alan passed along a recipe for one of his family's favorite classic Ukrainian dishes, cold borscht. Quinta recommended the 2018 book “Russia Without Putin”by Tony Wood as a good read on Russia in this particular moment. And Scott passed along H.A. Hellyer's recent op-ed on the unfortunate racism that is evident in the different ways the media has covered the Ukraine conflict versus other recent conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere.