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“It’s Not Zero”: The CFO Rule for AI Forecasting | Dan Griggs
jeudi 29 janvier 2026 • Duration 46:50
In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Intercom CFO Dan Griggs to discuss pricing and forecasting in the AI era. Dan shares the “it’s not zero” rule, the logic behind Fin’s $0.99 pricing, and how to bet on AI without blowing up the core business.
—
SPONSORS:
Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.com
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you’re scaling on an ERP that wasn’t built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
Tabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/run
Abacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.ai
—
LINKS:
Dan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-griggs-0970181/
Intercom: https://www.intercom.com/
CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
—
RELATED EPISODES:
Inside Rocket Companies: M&A, Metrics, and Mortgage Moats | Brian Brown
—
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 Cold Open
00:01:03 Dan Griggs and Intercom’s AI Pivot
00:02:45 Ice Cream to SaaS
00:04:19 Learning the Business
00:06:26 Operational Reality and Forecasts
00:08:00 “It’s Not Zero” Forecasting
00:10:09 Scenario Planning and Ambiguity
00:11:23 Sponsors — Brex | Metronome | RightRev
00:14:43 Mental Models for Metrics
00:16:15 Mental Math for Forecasts
00:17:28 Core CFO Ratios
00:19:13 Intercom’s Burn-the-Boats Moment
00:20:53 AI as an Existential Bet
00:22:21 SaaS Categories AI Can Replace
00:23:04 Why Finance Lags on AI
00:23:39 Sponsors — Rillet | Tabs | Abacum
00:27:05 Why Fin Uses Outcome Pricing
00:28:59 The $0.99 Resolution Tradeoff
00:30:46 Why Support Work Varies
00:32:01 AI Resolution Unit Economics
00:33:08 Model Choice as Costs Fall
00:35:19 Domain-Specific vs Generic LLMs
00:36:08 Selling Against the Core
00:38:50 Founder vs Professional CEOs
00:41:47 Hiring Mistakes and Instincts
00:44:28 Intercom’s Finance Stack
00:45:49 Craziest Expense Request
How finance shows its value beyond being the “no” department | Maria Izurieta
lundi 26 janvier 2026 • Duration 53:14
In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Maria Izurieta, CFO of Huntress, to unpack what it really means to lead finance as a connective tissue across the organization. Drawing on experience across VC-backed, PE-owned, and public companies, Maria shares how she balances impact versus perfection, builds trust through small wins, and helps teams move from transactional finance to insight-driven decision making. They dig into data transparency, centralized BI, partnering with sales and marketing on revenue, and why the best CFOs unblock friction instead of becoming the “no” department — all while bringing a deeply people-first lens to scale.
—
SPONSORS:
Abacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.ai
Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.com
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you’re scaling on an ERP that wasn’t built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
Tabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/run
—
LINKS:
Maria on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/maria-izurieta-909a3b/
Company: https://www.huntress.com/
CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
—
RELATED EPISODES:
How the Best CFOs Lead Without Being the CEO | Ken Stillwell
—
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 Preview and Intro
00:01:01 Maria’s Background
00:03:09 People-First Team Building
00:05:16 People, Process, Systems at Scale
00:07:13 Removing Friction Outside Finance
00:09:15 Data Transparency & Decision-Making
00:11:06 Sponsors — Abacum | Brex | Metronome
00:14:22 Forward-Deployed Data
00:16:21 Centralized Data vs. Silos
00:19:23 Finance as Data Steward
00:21:08 Cost-to-Price Feedback Loop
00:22:35 Curiosity Builds Credibility
00:23:43 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | Tabs
00:27:12 Trust First, Then Impact
00:30:27 Celebrating Small Wins
00:31:21 From Transactions to Insights
00:33:00 CFO at the Revenue Table
00:34:32 Educating the Org on Metrics
00:36:21 Customer-Level Margin Reality
00:37:13 Using Facts to Change Decisions
00:38:27 Ownership Mindset in Growth Companies
00:39:10 VC vs. PE vs. Public CFO Tradeoffs
00:41:02 Operating Inside Constraints
00:42:18 Finding Your Stage Fit
00:44:17 Building a Personal Advisor Network
00:46:43 Visibility and Women in Leadership
00:47:44 Work–Life Integration, Not Balance
00:48:45 Lightning Round: Biggest Mistake
00:50:10 Advice to Younger Self
00:51:36 Finance Tech Stack
00:52:01 Craziest Expense Story
00:52:44 Credits
#RunTheNumbersPodcast #CFOLeadership #ScalingCompanies #DataDrivenDecisions #ExecutiveLeadership
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
Inside the Economics of Independent Creators | Mostly Growth
samedi 27 décembre 2025 • Duration 40:43
Mostly Growth on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MostlyGrowth
Mostly Growth on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mostly-growth/id1842238102
Mostly Growth on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3KDtaLaXx1obFp5PUhZ6V3
In this year-end episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman reflect on what it actually takes to build a modern media business around newsletters and podcasts. They unpack CJ’s first year going full-time, comparing creative intuition versus metric-driven operating styles, and discuss what content truly drives growth. The conversation also covers distribution dynamics, the emotional reality of unsubscribes and burnout, and closes with a candid look at monetization, team building, and the tradeoffs between simplicity and scale.
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SPONSORS:
Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics
Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com
—
LINKS:
Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/
Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/
Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/
Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/
https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/deep-research-for-gtm
https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/2025-state-of-b2b-gtm-report
https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/presenting-the-state-of-the-agentic-financial-stack
https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/the-great-ai-arr-illusion
https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/presenting-the-2025-tech-stack-report
https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/download-the-annual-planning-bible
https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/how-to-sell-annual-plans
https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/get-recommended-by-chatgpt
https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/gtm-vibecoding-ideas
https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/how-to-use-ai-agents-for-marketing
—
RELATED EPISODES:
We get roasted for swag and drop some GTM gold
Do vanity plates bring serious business?
Pricing in the Real World: Babies, Bots, and Billing
—
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 Preview and Intro
00:01:52 Sponsors — Pulley | Metronome
00:04:12 Action Figure Swag and Year-in-Review Setup
00:05:47 Going Full-Time and the First-Year Reality Check
00:07:24 Writing Schedules, Creative Work, and Time Optimization
00:09:16 Writing Speed, Craft, and the Myth That Time Equals Quality
00:10:51 Perfectionism vs. Throughput in Newsletter Writing
00:13:03 Creator Burnout, Motivation, and Engagement Anxiety
00:14:08 Playing the Long Game vs. Obsessing Over Metrics
00:15:42 Best Work of the Year and High-Leverage Content Bets
00:17:55 Big Research Reports as Career-Defining Projects
00:19:19 When Memes Outperform Deep Work
00:19:52 LinkedIn Algorithms vs. Content Quality
00:20:51 Writing for the Feed vs. Writing to Think
00:22:03 Optimizing LinkedIn Profiles for Credibility
00:23:47 Subscriber Growth, Audience Quality, and Churn Reality
00:27:20 Reports and Research as Growth Engines
00:28:37 Tactical “How-To” Content That Actually Converts
00:30:21 Tactical Value Beats Sounding Smart
00:30:40 Building a Team and Scaling Beyond a Solopreneur
00:32:05 Simplicity vs. Scale in Early Business Decisions
00:35:37 Avoiding Boredom and Shiny Object Syndrome
00:37:12 Balancing Writing, Consulting, and Energy
00:37:54 Making the Leap Financially as a Creator
00:39:01 Subscriptions vs. Advertising as the Real Business Model
#MostlyGrowthPodcast #CreatorEconomy #IndependentCreator #NewsletterBusiness #YearInReview
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
The High-Stakes World of Consumer Marketplaces: John Connolly on Trends, Metrics, & Myths
jeudi 3 avril 2025 • Duration 48:31
In this episode, CJ sits down with John Connolly, Managing Director at Spectrum Equity, to explore the evolution of consumer investing. They discuss how investor sentiment toward consumer companies has shifted over the past 15 years and why traditional SaaS metrics like net dollar retention (NDR) don’t always apply in this space. John explains what signals indicate a strong consumer business, whether brand or product wins in the long run, and how consumer companies have adapted their monetization strategies over the last decade. Plus, John shares the story behind Spectrum Equity’s investment in Teachers Pay Teachers and the craziest thing he’s ever done to land a deal.
If you're looking for an ERP, head to NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning.
—
SPONSORS:
Subscript is a modern billing and revenue recognition platform designed for SaaS finance teams that need flexibility and accuracy. From automated invoicing and dunning to compliant, transparent revenue recognition and real-time analytics, Subscript eliminates manual work, reduces errors, and gives you a single source of truth for all your financial data. Book a free demo at subscript.com.
Rippling Spend is a spend management solution that handles your entire company’s spending in one unified system. It enables you to bring your corporate cards, expense management, bill pay, and more into one place to achieve real-time visibility and uniquely granular control with automated policy controls across every type of spend. Get a demo to see how much time your org would save at rippling.com/metrics.
Vanta's trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation. Over 9000 businesses use it to automate compliance needs across over 35 frameworks like SOC 2 and ISO 27001. Centralize security workflows, complete questionnaires up to five times faster, and proactively manage vendor risk. For a limited time, get $1,000 off of Vanta at vanta.com/metrics.
Tropic is an intelligent spend management solution that consolidates your spend data and processes into one unified offering, enabling insights and decisive action. From spotting hidden optimization opportunities to automating painful procurement workflows and giving you the best market data to turn vendor negotiations in your favor, Tropic combines smart insights with real human expertise to keep you ahead of the curve. Visit tropicapp.io/mostlymetrics to learn how.
NetSuite provides financial software for all your business needs. More than 40,000 companies have already upgraded to NetSuite, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform ✅, head to NetSuite https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning.
Planful is a financial performance management platform designed to streamline financial tasks for businesses. It helps with budgeting, closing the books, and financial reporting, all on a cloud-based platform. By improving the efficiency and accuracy of these processes, Planful allows businesses to make better financial decisions. Find out more at www.planful.com/metrics.
—
FOLLOW US ON X:
@cjgustafson222 (CJ)
—
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Preview and Intro
(02:32) Sponsor – Subscript | Rippling Spend | Vanta
(06:04) The Evolution of Investing and Defensibility
(08:50) Cooling Investor Appetite for Consumer Businesses
(10:13) Efficiency Metrics for Consumer Businesses
(12:24) How To Navigate Retention and Churn
(14:12) Sponsor – Tropic | NetSuite | Planful
(17:47) When Churn Is Necessary
(19:15) Increasing TAM in Consumer Businesses
(21:13) The Most Important Metric: Funnel Health
(24:08) Celebrity Partnerships as a Competitive Mode
(25:05) Why Brand Is Even More Important in B2C Than B2B
(26:25) The Strongest Brands John Has Invested In
(28:23) Changes in How Companies Monetize Over the Past Decade
(29:52) Using the Supply Side To Bring You Demand
(34:02) How COVID-19 Wreaked Havoc on Consumer Trends
(38:11) Evaluating Consumer Businesses
(39:04) The Craziest Thing John Has Done To Win a Deal
(40:56) How To Pitch to Bootstrapped Founders
(43:00) The Revolutionary Teachers Pay Teachers Marketplace
(46:18) Wrap
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
Stripe rips, Plaid falls, and Wiz gets PAID... State of the Private Markets (March)
samedi 29 mars 2025 • Duration 11:37
On this episode of Run the Numbers we’ll cover the state of the private tech markets.
* Did Google overpay for Wiz?
* Stripe’s valuation is (nearly) back up to their COVID high water mark
* Plaid shares fall in secondary market
* Figma is growing into it’s valuation
* The Rippling and Deel (hilarious) controversy
You can get this in written form at mostlymetrics.com
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
The Startup Shutdown Playbook: How to Succeed in Closing a Company
jeudi 27 mars 2025 • Duration 01:03:23
While few plan for the demise of their startup, it’s something that many face. In this episode, CJ is joined by Dori Yona, co-founder and CEO of SimpleClosure, to unpack the financial, legal, and emotional complexities of shutting down a company. Dori explains the options available when a company is running out of cash, what bankruptcy actually means, and the importance of budgeting for the end. The conversation covers acqui-hires, dissolution, returning capital to investors, hidden liabilities, legal pitfalls, tax implications, and more. Dori breaks down the differences between shutting down corporations versus LLCs and the timelines involved. They also discuss how to break the news to investors and why perseverance is sometimes overrated.
If you're looking for an ERP head to NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning.
—
SPONSORS:
Tropic is an intelligent spend management solution that consolidates your spend data and processes into one unified offering, enabling insights and decisive action. It doesn’t just show you where the problems are—it helps you solve them. From spotting hidden optimization opportunities, like duplicative spend, to automating those painful procurement workflows, to giving you the best market data that turns every vendor negotiation in your favor. Tropic combines smart insights with real human expertise to keep you ahead of the curve. Visit tropicapp.io/mostlymetrics to learn how.
NetSuite provides financial software for all your business needs. More than 40,000 companies have already upgraded to NetSuite, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform ✅, head to NetSuite https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning.
RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. Whether it's multi-element arrangements, subscription renewals, or complex usage-based contracts, RightRev takes care of it all. That means fewer spreadsheets, fewer errors, and more time for your team to focus on growth. For modern revenue recognition simplified, visit rightrev.com and schedule a demo.
Planful is a financial performance management platform designed to streamline financial tasks for businesses. It helps with budgeting, closing the books, and financial reporting, all on a cloud-based platform. By improving the efficiency and accuracy of these processes, Planful allows businesses to make better financial decisions. Find out more at www.planful.com/metrics.
Brex offers the world's smartest corporate card on a full-stack global platform that is everything CFOs need to manage their finances on an elite level. Plus they offer modern banking and treasury as well as intuitive expenses and accounting automation, bill pay, and travel. Brex makes it easy to control spend before it happens, automate annoying tasks, and optimize your finances. Find out how Brex can help you make every dollar count at brex.com/metrics.
Vanta's trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation. Over 9000 businesses use it to automate compliance needs across over 35 frameworks like SOC 2 and ISO 27001. Centralize security workflows, complete questionnaires up to five times faster, and proactively manage vendor risk. For a limited time, get $1,000 off of Vanta at vanta.com/metrics.
—
FOLLOW US ON X:
@cjgustafson222 (CJ)
@DoriYona https://x.com/doriyona (Dori)
LINKS:
SimpleClosure: SimpleClosure.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dori-yona-b8369877/
Email dori@simpleclosure.com
—
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Preview and Intro
(01:44) Sponsor – Tropic | NetSuite | RightRev
(05:32) The Inspiration Behind SimpleClosure
(08:25) Three Scenarios When a Company Is Running Out of Cash
(11:32) The Complications of Shutting Down a Business After Selling It
(13:38) What Bankruptcy Actually Means and the Different Types
(16:34) Sponsor – Planful | Brex | Vanta
(20:16) Giving Money Back to Investors and the Pref Stack
(24:31) How To Budget for a Shutdown
(27:15) The Time It Takes To Shut Down a Business
(29:24) SimpleClosure’s Business Model: Serving Customers That Churn
(32:00) The Velocity of SimpleClosure’s Transactions
(36:09) What “Piercing the Corporate Veil” Means
(41:27) Shutting Down Corporations Versus LLCs
(45:36) The Seasonal Nature of Startups Shutting Down
(47:49) Communicating a Shutdown to Your Investors
(54:35) Knowing When To Persevere and When To Move On
(59:53) Wrap
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
The Art of Stacking S-Curves: Olo’s Winning Vertical SaaS Strategy with CFO Peter Benevides
lundi 24 mars 2025 • Duration 01:02:54
In this episode, CJ is joined by Peter Benevides, CFO of Olo, a leading vertical SaaS company powering digital ordering, payments, and guest engagement solutions for popular restaurant brands. Peter explains how Olo successfully expanded into payments and used this as a strategic advantage. He breaks down how the company stacks S-curves through continued product expansion and adoption, and how this enables them to increase revenue without increasing the take-rate. The conversation also covers pricing strategy and how Olo balances subscription and consumption-based models. Peter also sheds light on what it's like selling into franchise businesses and lessons learned from other vertical SaaS companies like Veeva.
If you're looking for an ERP head to NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/metrics and get a customized KPI checklist.
—
SPONSORS:
NetSuite provides financial software for all your business needs. More than 40,000 companies have already upgraded to NetSuite, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform ✅, head to NetSuite https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning.
RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. Whether it's multi-element arrangements, subscription renewals, or complex usage-based contracts, RightRev takes care of it all. That means fewer spreadsheets, fewer errors, and more time for your team to focus on growth. For modern revenue recognition simplified, visit rightrev.com and schedule a demo.
Planful is a financial performance management platform designed to streamline financial tasks for businesses. It helps with budgeting, closing the books, and financial reporting, all on a cloud-based platform. By improving the efficiency and accuracy of these processes, Planful allows businesses to make better financial decisions. Find out more at www.planful.com/metrics.
Brex offers the world's smartest corporate card on a full-stack global platform that is everything CFOs need to manage their finances on an elite level. Plus they offer modern banking and treasury as well as intuitive expenses and accounting automation, bill pay, and travel. Brex makes it easy to control spend before it happens, automate annoying tasks, and optimize your finances. Find out how Brex can help you make every dollar count at brex.com/metrics.
Vanta's trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation. Over 9000 businesses use it to automate compliance needs across over 35 frameworks like SOC 2 and ISO 27001. Centralize security workflows, complete questionnaires up to five times faster, and proactively manage vendor risk. For a limited time, get $1,000 off of Vanta at vanta.com/metrics.
Tropic is an intelligent spend management solution that consolidates your spend data and processes into one unified offering, enabling insights and decisive action. It doesn’t just show you where the problems are—it helps you solve them. From spotting hidden optimization opportunities, like duplicative spend, to automating those painful procurement workflows, to giving you the best market data that turns every vendor negotiation in your favor. Tropic combines smart insights with real human expertise to keep you ahead of the curve. Visit tropicapp.io/mostlymetrics to learn how
—
FOLLOW US ON X:
@cjgustafson222 (CJ)
—
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Preview and Intro
(01:53) Sponsor – NetSuite | RightRev | Planful
(05:24) An Introduction to Olo
(08:34) Reaching Larger and Smaller Enterprises
(10:34) The Focus on Guest-Facing Technology
(13:22) The Evolution of Payments at Olo
(16:38) Sponsor – Brex | Vanta | Tropic
(20:33) The Card-Not-Present Offering and Fraud
(23:50) Knowing Who Your Guest Is and Olo’s Extended Value Prop
(32:04) Stacking S-Curves
(33:30) Increasing Revenue Without Increasing the Take-Rate
(36:27) How the Payments Module Makes Other Products Stickier
(37:39) Advice to CFOs Looking to Add Payments
(39:11) Pricing Subscription and Consumption-Based Products
(42:35) Forecasting and the Predictability of This Model
(44:43) Vertical Software Company Case Study: Veeva
(49:06) Working with Franchises
(53:42) Long-Ass Lightning Round: Planning for the Future
(56:16) Advice to Younger Self
(58:48) Finance Software Stack
(59:24) Craziest Expense Story
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
Klarna IPO: S1 Breakdown
samedi 22 mars 2025 • Duration 27:08
Klarna, the Swedish fintech powerhouse, is going public on the NYSE (ticker: KLAR).This marks a major moment for the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) space. This IPO will test whether investors believe BNPL is a smarter alternative to credit cards—or another form of subprime lending in disguise.A few years ago, Klarna was worth $46B in private markets. Now? It’s eyeing a $15B-$20B valuation—a stark reminder of how fintech sentiment has shifted in a world of higher interest rates.7 Key Themes:1️⃣ Klarna is going public at a fraction of its peak valuation.2️⃣ AI-driven cost cutting (automated customer service, AI-powered CRM) is improving margins.3️⃣ Klarna’s banking license is an advantage, but deposit growth is slowing.4️⃣ The US is now Klarna’s largest market, but credit losses there are rising.5️⃣ Klarna is morphing into an advertising & payments platform (ads = 6% of revenue).6️⃣ Internal controls raise red flags (issues with user access, revenue recognition, and credit loss estimates).7️⃣ Insiders & VCs have already cashed out >$800M pre-IPO.Valuation Debate:🚀 Bull case: Klarna transitions into a broader fintech platform, scaling ads and banking services.🏛️ Base case: Klarna remains a profitable BNPL, but growth slows due to regulation.📉 Bear case: Klarna gets valued like a consumer lender, with rising credit losses and shrinking margins.Klarna’s IPO will be a key test for fintech. If it pops, it could reopen the IPO window for names like Chime, Revolut, and (maybe someday) Stripe.Does Klarna deserve a premium multiple, or is it just a fancy lender?Let’s hear it—bull or bear? 🐂📉Get the full breakdown on the IPO at mostlymetrics.com
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
Red Flags & Big Wins: Lucas Swisher on What Makes Coatue Say Yes (or No) to an Investment
jeudi 20 mars 2025 • Duration 55:58
In this episode, CJ interviews Lucas Swisher, Co-Lead of Growth Investing and Software Investing at Coatue, to explore how one of tech’s most influential investment firms navigates both public and private markets. Lucas explains Coatue’s evolution—from hedge fund origins to a powerhouse in venture capital—and how the company balances short-term public market pressures and long-term private investments. The conversation takes a dive deep into data-driven decision-making and how Coatue’s proprietary Mosaic platform provides an edge while still leaving room for human intuition. They also discuss the firm’s investment philosophy, what differentiates them from other investment companies, and why they choose to have such a concentrated portfolio of investments. Lucas sheds light on how they evaluate the sustainability of a small software company's unit economics, the most important metric that they look at, and other important factors and red flags that often get overlooked when choosing where to invest.
If you're looking for an ERP head to NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/metrics and get a customized KPI checklist.
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SPONSORS:
RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. Whether it's multi-element arrangements, subscription renewals, or complex usage-based contracts, RightRev takes care of it all. That means fewer spreadsheets, fewer errors, and more time for your team to focus on growth. For modern revenue recognition simplified, visit rightrev.com and schedule a demo.
Planful is a financial performance management platform designed to streamline financial tasks for businesses. It helps with budgeting, closing the books, and financial reporting, all on a cloud-based platform. By improving the efficiency and accuracy of these processes, Planful allows businesses to make better financial decisions. Find out more at www.planful.com/metrics.
Brex offers the world's smartest corporate card on a full-stack global platform that is everything CFOs need to manage their finances on an elite level. Plus they offer modern banking and treasury as well as intuitive expenses and accounting automation, bill pay, and travel. Brex makes it easy to control spend before it happens, automate annoying tasks, and optimize your finances. Find out how Brex can help you make every dollar count at brex.com/metrics.
Vanta's trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation. Over 9000 businesses use it to automate compliance needs across over 35 frameworks like SOC 2 and ISO 27001. Centralize security workflows, complete questionnaires up to five times faster, and proactively manage vendor risk. For a limited time, get $1,000 off of Vanta at vanta.com/metrics.
Tropic is an intelligent spend management solution that consolidates your spend data and processes into one unified offering, enabling insights and decisive action. It doesn’t just show you where the problems are—it helps you solve them. From spotting hidden optimization opportunities, like duplicative spend, to automating those painful procurement workflows, to giving you the best market data that turns every vendor negotiation in your favor. Tropic combines smart insights with real human expertise to keep you ahead of the curve. Visit tropicapp.io/mostlymetrics to learn how
NetSuite provides financial software for all your business needs. More than 40,000 companies have already upgraded to NetSuite, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform ✅, head to NetSuite https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning.
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FOLLOW US ON X:
@cjgustafson222 (CJ)
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TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Preview and Intro
(02:18) Sponsor – RightRev | Planful | Brex
(06:15) Lucas’s Role at Coatue
(07:58) The Evolution of Coatue’s Investment Strategy
(11:36) Growth-Stage Private Assets Versus Public Markets
(14:18) Balancing Short-Term Public Investing and Long-Term Patience of Private Markets
(16:07) Sponsor – Vanta | Tropic | NetSuite
(19:50) The Service Business at the Core of Coatue’s Growth Investing
(22:08) Coatue’s Mosaic Platform and Due Diligence
(26:29) How Mosaic Helps Coatue Get to No Faster
(28:05) Creating a Concentrated Portfolio of Investments
(30:40) Coatue’s Edge Versus Firms with Other Investment Philosophies
(37:20) How the Best Investment Firms Differentiate Themselves
(41:14) Assessing the Sustainability of a Small Software Company’s Unit Economics
(44:12) Evaluating Enterprise SaaS Versus Consumer Software
(46:21) The Next Buyer Scenario
(48:53) Prediction for Coatue’s Future Structure and Strategy
(50:34) What Growth Stage Companies Should Look for in an Investor
(52:29) Advice for the Next Generation of Investors
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
21 Million Customers: The Two Keys to Long-Term Tech Success with GoDaddy CFO Mark McCaffrey
lundi 17 mars 2025 • Duration 55:47
Mark McCaffrey, the CFO of GoDaddy, joins CJ to talk about the evolution of one of the most recognizable brands on the internet from domain registration to a full-service platform for small businesses. Mark sheds light on GoDaddy’s role in the entrepreneurial micro-startup ecosystem and how, after 21 years, GoDaddy has grown to 21 million customers. He describes the trends he’s identified in the formation of micro businesses, their adoption of AI, their survival rates, and why churn caused by failing small businesses doesn’t affect GoDaddy as much as you think it would. He also talks about the metrics that matter, what he tracks, what he discloses, and how he uses this to pursue customers with intent. He also explains how to not lose sight of the micro when the macro is so big, and lists the two things every company in the tech industry needs to do to achieve long-term success. Spoiler: one has to do with customer relationships.
If you're looking for an ERP head to NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/metrics and get a customized KPI checklist.
—
SPONSORS:
Planful is a financial performance management platform designed to streamline financial tasks for businesses. It helps with budgeting, closing the books, and financial reporting, all on a cloud-based platform. By improving the efficiency and accuracy of these processes, Planful allows businesses to make better financial decisions. Find out more at www.planful.com/metrics.
Brex offers the world's smartest corporate card on a full-stack global platform that is everything CFOs need to manage their finances on an elite level. Plus they offer modern banking and treasury as well as intuitive expenses and accounting automation, bill pay, and travel. Brex makes it easy to control spend before it happens, automate annoying tasks, and optimize your finances. Find out how Brex can help you make every dollar count at brex.com/metrics.
Vanta's trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation. Over 9000 businesses use it to automate compliance needs across over 35 frameworks like SOC 2 and ISO 27001. Centralize security workflows, complete questionnaires up to five times faster, and proactively manage vendor risk. For a limited time, get $1,000 off of Vanta at vanta.com/metrics.
Tropic is an intelligent spend management solution that consolidates your spend data and processes into one unified offering, enabling insights and decisive action. It doesn’t just show you where the problems are—it helps you solve them. From spotting hidden optimization opportunities, like duplicative spend, to automating those painful procurement workflows, to giving you the best market data that turns every vendor negotiation in your favor. Tropic combines smart insights with real human expertise to keep you ahead of the curve. Visit tropicapp.io/mostlymetrics to learn how.
NetSuite provides financial software for all your business needs. More than 40,000 companies have already upgraded to NetSuite, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform ✅, head to NetSuite https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning.
RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. Whether it's multi-element arrangements, subscription renewals, or complex usage-based contracts, RightRev takes care of it all. That means fewer spreadsheets, fewer errors, and more time for your team to focus on growth. For modern revenue recognition simplified, visit rightrev.com and schedule a demo.
—
FOLLOW US ON X:
@cjgustafson222 (CJ)
—
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Preview and Intro
(01:54) Sponsor – Planful | Brex | Vanta
(06:16) GoDaddy and the Entrepreneurial Micro-Startup Ecosystem
(07:40) The Origins of the GoDaddy Name
(09:08) GoDaddy’s Business Model and its Evolution
(11:45) The Strategic High Ground of Starting with the Domain
(12:58) Definition of a Micro-Business
(15:32) Sponsor – Tropic | NetSuite | RightRev
(19:15) The Mostly Metrics Domain Name
(21:50) Unsuccessful Businesses and Churn at GoDaddy
(27:07) Surprises from GoDaddy’s Data
(29:20) Customer Trends in Openness to AI
(30:45) Determining Which Metrics Matter and Which to Disclose
(34:31) Pursuing Customers with Intent
(35:44) When and How Mark Introduces a New Metric
(38:25) ARR Versus Bookings
(39:25) Retention Trends
(41:06) Two Things to Do in the Tech Industry for Long-Term Success
(45:47) How the Power of Relationships Led Mark to GoDaddy
(49:08) Long-Ass Lightning Round: Excel Spreadsheets
(49:44) Three Rules for Every Young Professional
(51:02) Finance Software Stack
(52:11) Craziest Expense Story
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com









