In the Company of Mavericks – Details, episodes & analysis

For this episode, I am joined by Duncan MacInnes, manager of The Ruffer Investment Company, for a conversation about his investment philosophy and how he thinks about risk in today’s financial markets. 

He describes himself as a pragmatic, macro-informed, value investor.  

The Ruffer Investment Company is a billion-pound London-listed investment company with the simple aim of delivering consistent positive returns regardless of how financial markets perform with the ambition to protect and increase the real value of its investor's capital. 

A simple but challenging mandate. 

To achieve this distinctive objective, Duncan has a highly differentiated strategy and has constructed a portfolio that looks nothing like most portfolios. 

Since launch in the early 2000s, Ruffer has a good long term track record. 

However, over the last couple of years, performance has slipped as risk assets, particularly equities, have outperformed Duncan’s expectations.   

But Ruffer’s performance has a tendency, as Duncan says, to perform like ketchup coming out of a glass bottle. 

The events of early August, as the yen carry trade sent markets in a spin, offered a brief glimpse of the better times that might lie ahead for this fund. 

Duncan offers a master class in different, often esoteric, markets and how he has used instruments such as gold, FX, credit spreads, derivatives, inflation-linked bonds and even bitcoin to find uncorrelated returns and asymmetric and reflexive risk profiles. 

Duncan is positive on the outlook for gold, the yen, and commodities. However, he thinks investors are over their skis regarding US equities, specifically the Mag Seven. 

He is more positive about UK equities and describes why the consensual view that Chinese equities are uninvestable draws him to them. 

As he says, we are all invested in China already, but at several times the value of most Chinese stocks.

As always, nothing you hear in this podcast is investment advice, and all the views expressed by the contributors are in a personal capacity only and do not represent the views of Progressive Equity or any other organization mentioned in this podcast.       

Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Duncan MacInnes.   

Made possible by Progressive Equity.  

Coming soon, Duncan MacInnes presents a tour de force of the major financial asset classes and how to manage risk in today's crazy markets.

He covers why he is so bullish on gold, gold miners, the yen and UK equities, and long Chinese equities, the ugliest in his portfolio of ugly ducklings.

He also riffs on the yen carry trade, Bitcoin, premium drinks, and how we might know we are nearer the top than the bottom of the current equity market cycle.

Made possible by Progressive Equity Research.   

This is a fascinating story of resilience, innovation, and raw entrepreneurialism. Simon’s journey is a powerful example of how adverse circumstances can be fertile ground for learning and growth. Living in China for 16 years, transforming CT from its tool-making roots into a global component supply business, Simon candidly discusses the challenges he faced and how he overcame them. Simon talks about the need to stay ahead by adopting AI and robotics. He says that CT went to China for its low costs but is staying because of its world-class leadership in modern manufacturing technology.

I really enjoyed this one. I hope you do too.

Please subscribe on your podcast app or follow me on Substack.

Made possible by Progressive Equity. 

My friend Mark Atkinson invited me onto the Desert Island Investor podcast, where we chatted with Miles Adcock, the CEO of Concurrent Technologies. 

Mark introduced me to Miles in early 2023 where we spoke about the challenges of revitalising the defence electronics supplier amid component shortages.  https://share.transistor.fm/s/58cdae19

It was great catching up with Miles again, although the swim home was challenging. 

Back in March this year, David Seaman of Alpha Cygni Asset Management joined me for a conversation with Adam Rackley, the founder and fund manager at Cape Wrath Capital.

Adam epitomises the philosophy of doing things differently when it comes to investing in UK equities. He has pursued his unique approach since founding Cape Wrath in 2016 using what he describes as a behavioural value strategy. 

He looks to identify market capitulation events and narrative shifts to cycle capital into shares when they are driven by emotion more than rationality. He then looks to exit positions when narrative shifts lead to equity revaluations to his appraised fair value.

Adam runs his fund according to what he calls the Rules of Wrath, not the established conventional rules of thumb that seek quality companies and long-term holding periods that try to avoid volatility. 

No, for Adam it is a marketing strategy designed to discourage investors who can’t stomach the journey into the deep value that exists in the UK market. He wants a band of loyal investors who understand and back his strategy, a strategy he is fully committed to and invested in.    

While he has all the credentials of a conventional equity fund manager, Adam is anything but. Previously an army officer, Adam has degrees in PPE and law and the CFA qualification. 

He has also rowed the Atlantic, written a book, swam the channel, cycled from Land’s End to John O’Groats, and lived and worked in India for several years. He is now based in North Wales. 

According to Morningstar, only one of 72 smaller company funds outperformed the UK small-cap index last year. That fund was Cape Wrath. A one-year wonder? Well, not exactly. 

As of the end of May this year, Cape Wrath has significantly outperformed its benchmarks over one month, six months, one year, and five years by sticking to and evolving its rigorous investment strategy and process.  

This is a fascinating conversation in which Adam delves into some examples of how his strategy has played out and how he hopes to develop his process further. 

He then looks forward to closing the fund to new investors, switching off his LinkedIn account, and retiring to his library to do what he enjoys best: picking undervalued shares. 

Please enjoy our conversation with the maverick investor, Adam Rackley.

Made possible by Progressive Equity. 

Back in March this year, David Seaman of Alpha Cygni Asset Management joined me for a conversation with Adam Rackley, the founder and fund manager at Cape Wrath Capital.

Adam epitomises the philosophy of doing things differently when it comes to investing in UK equities. He has pursued his unique approach since founding Cape Wrath in 2016 using what he describes as a behavioural value strategy. 

He looks to identify market capitulation events and narrative shifts to cycle capital into shares when they are driven by emotion more than rationality. He then looks to exit positions when narrative shifts lead to equity revaluations to his appraised fair value.

Adam runs his fund according to what he calls the Rules of Wrath, not the established conventional rules of thumb that seek quality companies and long-term holding periods that try to avoid volatility. 

No, for Adam it is a marketing strategy designed to discourage investors who can’t stomach the journey into the deep value that exists in the UK market. He wants a band of loyal investors who understand and back his strategy, a strategy he is fully committed to and invested in.    

While he has all the credentials of a conventional equity fund manager, Adam is anything but. Previously an army officer, Adam has degrees in PPE and law and the CFA qualification. 

He has also rowed the Atlantic, written a book, swam the channel, cycled from Land’s End to John O’Groats, and lived and worked in India for several years. He is now based in North Wales. 

According to Morningstar, only one of 72 smaller company funds outperformed the UK small-cap index last year. That fund was Cape Wrath. A one-year wonder? Well, not exactly. 

As of the end of May this year, Cape Wrath has significantly outperformed its benchmarks over one month, six months, one year, and five years by sticking to and evolving its rigorous investment strategy and process.  

This is a fascinating conversation in which Adam delves into some examples of how his strategy has played out and how he hopes to develop his process further. 

He then looks forward to closing the fund to new investors, switching off his LinkedIn account, and retiring to his library to do what he enjoys best: picking undervalued shares. 

Please enjoy our conversation with the maverick investor, Adam Rackley. 

Made possible by Progressive Equity. 

For this episode, I am joined by Tom Like, an analyst at Singer Capital Markets, for a conversation with Nick Prest, the Founder and Chairman of the defence services and technology company Cohort PLC. 

Prior to founding Cohort, Nick worked in the Ministry of Defence before joining United Scientific Holdings, later renamed Alvis. A few years later Nick became CEO. 

Alvis was eventually acquired by BAe, and Nick, along with several former Alvis colleagues, set up Cohort in 2006. With a market value of £26m, Cohort aims to provide technical services to the defence industry in the UK and abroad. 

Today, 18 years later, Cohort is the parent company of six operating businesses, providing a wide range of services and products for British and international customers in defence, security, and related markets. Its market capitalisation is £335m. 

In a fascinating discussion, Nick talks about the changing nature of the defence industry over his long career, why he decided to establish Cohort, how he has gone about making acquisitions and the decentralised operating model for the Group, how the listed defence industry has changed, and how our rapidly changing geopolitics is likely to change the operating environment for Cohort in the coming years. 

With defence spending rising up the priority list for all Western countries, the outlook for Cohort and the rest of the defence industry hasn’t looked this good for decades. As he says the expansion of the Chinese navy over the last 20 years is a source of considerable concern to other countries in the region, such as Australia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, all of which are Cohort customers. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has radically changed perceptions about the need to fund defence budgets further in Europe.    

I began by asking Nick about his background and how and why he came to establish Cohort in 2006.

Made possible by Progressive Equity Research. 

A few weeks ago, Tom Like of Singer Capital Markets joined me for a fascinating conversation with Nick Prest, the Founder and Chairman of defence technology provider Cohort.

Nick provides a wealth of anecdotes and knowledge of the defence industry, the geopolitics that drives it, and how it will likely change in the years ahead.

Coming soon on all good podcast apps.

Made possible by Progressive Equity Research   

I sit on the Investment Committee of the AIM-listed Onward Opportunities investment fund managed by Dowgate Wealth. I have a personal investment in Onward. Dowgate Group owns 9.26% of Transense Technologies PLC, of which Onward Opportunities owns 6.96%.

Last year, Onward's fund manager, Laurence Hulse, proposed an investment in Transense Technologies. My initial reaction could best be described as having a Victor Meldrew moment. Those with stock market memories may recall that Transense has a history of failing to meet its ambitious plans and targets and repeatedly returned to investors to back its innovative sensor technology.

In 2007, Transense had a market cap of £60m and forecast revenue of £300,000. Its exciting disruptive technology, Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW), was destined to achieve widespread adoption in the automotive industry. However, this didn't happen, and instead, Transense developed a well-earned reputation for serial stock market underachievement.   

As Sir John Templeton said, the four most dangerous words in investing are, This Time It's Different. With these words in mind, on today's episode, I am joined by Laurence to hear how Executive Chairman Nigel Rogers and Managing Director Ryan Maughan have repositioned this failed AIM-listed, blue-sky growth stock of the early 2000s. It is a fascinating case study of how UK-listed microcap companies can become forgotten and ignored as recovery strategies are implemented and latent value is created. As Nigel mentions, the AIM market is far from perfect.

Today, Transense has a market cap of just £15m and is only now beginning to exploit SAW's true potential in areas like motorsport, EVs, aerospace and robotics. Following an innovative licensing deal with tyre giant Bridgestone that has effectively underwritten the business's foreseeable future, Transense today is led by a combination of Nigel's experienced financial nouse and Ryan's proven engineering credentials and entrepreneurial instincts.

In this episode, we learn how Transense Technologies has been right-sized and can face the future on a firm financial footing, giving it time to exploit opportunities in SAW and its tyre-measuring device business, Translogik.   

Please enjoy our conversation with Nigel and Ryan of Transense Technologies and why this time, it's different.       

Brought to you by Progressive Equity Research.     

I sit on the Investment Committee of the AIM-listed Onward Opportunities investment fund managed by Dowgate Wealth. I have a personal investment in Onward. Dowgate Group owns 9.26% of Transense Technologies PLC, of which Onward Opportunities owns 6.96%. 

Last year, Onward's fund manager, Laurence Hulse, proposed an investment in Transense Technologies. My initial reaction could best be described as having a Victor Meldrew moment. Those with stock market memories may recall that Transense has a history of failing to meet its ambitious plans and targets and repeatedly returned to investors to back its innovative sensor technology. 

In 2007, Transense had a market cap of £60m and forecast revenue of £300,000. Its exciting disruptive technology, Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW), was destined to achieve widespread adoption in the automotive industry. However, this didn't happen, and instead, Transense developed a well-earned reputation for serial stock market underachievement.   

As Sir John Templeton said, the four most dangerous words in investing are, This Time It's Different. With these words in mind, on today's episode, I am joined by Laurence to hear how Executive Chairman Nigel Rogers and Managing Director Ryan Maughan have repositioned this failed AIM-listed, blue-sky growth stock of the early 2000s. It is a fascinating case study of how UK-listed microcap companies can become forgotten and ignored as recovery strategies are implemented and latent value is created. As Nigel mentions, the AIM market is far from perfect. 

Today, Transense has a market cap of just £15m and is only now beginning to exploit SAW's true potential in areas like motorsport, EVs, aerospace and robotics. Following an innovative licensing deal with tyre giant Bridgestone that has effectively underwritten the business's foreseeable future, Transense today is led by a combination of Nigel's experienced financial nouse and Ryan's proven engineering credentials and entrepreneurial instincts.
 
In this episode, we learn how Transense Technologies has been right-sized and can face the future on a firm financial footing, giving it time to exploit opportunities in SAW and its tyre-measuring device business, Translogik.   

Please enjoy our conversation with Nigel and Ryan of Transense Technologies and why this time, it's different.       

Brought to you by Progressive Equity Research.