ASEAN Chair – Details, episodes & analysis

The Biden neo-cons are attempting to trap Trump in sanctions, weapons and loans to Gaza and Ukraine. A deep dive into the implications for G7 leaders as they drop like flies from the political fallout.

The rapid turnover of G7 leaders has become a farce. Economic turmoil, a major change in global industrial investment and a river of US sanctions and the Team Trump tariff avalanche expected this year provide the bulk of today’s episode.

A quick update on ASEAN and Cambodia FDI and the outlook for Trump tariffs on the world’s largest trade partnership between China and ASEAN.

Australia’s sustainability transition is highly dependent on China’s EVs, but so is the UK and many are countries.

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Belt and Road update

In this episode we cover Cambodia's Techo Funan Canal and China's involvement and investment attitude as well as a update on risks to the Belt and Road in West Asia, Red Sea, Mediterranean and Africa.

Check out my Multipolar Peace friends on YouTube below.

https://teacup.media/chinahistorypodcast

Transcript

We are forming a global alliance against globalism, and neutrality studies is part of that. Don't get confused, let's just live with the contradiction.

Last Friday we held the second panel of independent social media contributors, discussing the new multipolarity we are now in, why we think that the collective west is being collectively stupid about it, and what we—and you—can do to oppose the lunacy.

The Basics:

* Multipolarity is not only an emerging reality, it is also a preferable foundation for global order.

* Neutrality is an important tool within the overall mix of how nations view themselves and position themselves in the context of integrated and indivisible security.

* NATO is a dangerous organisation and its expansion globally is undesirable and contrary to achieving a sustainable peace.

Work in progress.

More here: Multipolarpeace.com

Contributors:

Dr. Warwick Powell

Dr. Pascal Lottaz: Neutrality Studies

Jerry Grey: Jerry's Take on China Youtube,   

 / @jerrystakeonchina799  

Arnaud Bertrand: Twitter, https://twitter.com/rnaudbertrand?s=2...

Dr. Jeff Rich: Burning Archive Youtube,   

 / @theburningarchive   Substack,

Dr. Digby Wren Substack, https://substack.com/@digbywren

Dr. David Oualaalou: Geopolitical Trends Youtube,   

 / @geopoliticaltrends   S.L. Kanthan Substack,

Twitter, https://twitter.com/kanthan2030?s=21&...

Einar Tangen Linkedin, https://www.linkedin.com/in/ehtangen/...

Dr. John Pang Twitter, https://twitter.com/jynpang?s=21&t=Oe...

ASEAN Chair is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

We are forming a global alliance against globalism, and neutrality studies is part of that. Don't get confused, let's just live with the contradiction.

Last Friday we held the second panel of independent social media contributors, discussing the new multipolarity we are now in, why we think that the collective west is being collectively stupid about it, and what we—and you—can do to oppose the lunacy.

The Basics:

* Multipolarity is not only an emerging reality, it is also a preferable foundation for global order.

* Neutrality is an important tool within the overall mix of how nations view themselves and position themselves in the context of integrated and indivisible security.

* NATO is a dangerous organisation and its expansion globally is undesirable and contrary to achieving a sustainable peace.

Work in progress.

More here: Multipolarpeace.com

Contributors:

Dr. Warwick Powell

Dr. Pascal Lottaz: Neutrality Studies

Jerry Grey: Jerry's Take on China Youtube,   

 / @jerrystakeonchina799  

Arnaud Bertrand: Twitter, https://twitter.com/rnaudbertrand?s=2...

Dr. Jeff Rich: Burning Archive Youtube,   

 / @theburningarchive   Substack,

Dr. Digby Wren Substack, https://substack.com/@digbywren

Dr. David Oualaalou: Geopolitical Trends Youtube,   

 / @geopoliticaltrends   S.L. Kanthan Substack,

Twitter, https://twitter.com/kanthan2030?s=21&...

Einar Tangen Linkedin, https://www.linkedin.com/in/ehtangen/...

Dr. John Pang Twitter, https://twitter.com/jynpang?s=21&t=Oe...

ASEAN Chair is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Good morning,

Today is Wednesday the 10th of July 2024 and today we're going to explore the NATO Summit that's being held in Washington today and tomorrow. And, I think we're going to start with an article written by the the former Singapore ambassador to the United Nations, Kishore Mahbubani, who was actually appointed twice as Singapore’s UN ambassador.

Now, he's a very, very well-respected figure, and he wrote in 2021 that...

“that the Pacific has no need of the destructive militaristic culture of the Atlantic Alliance.”

Now, what was he talking about?

What he was talking about was the fact that NATO, which has existed since post-World War II and the Cold War era, basically has been involved in invasions and wars in Europe, in the Middle East, Central Asia, North Africa and other places.

And now the United States wants NATO to be dragged in to Asia.

ASEAN Chair is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Featured Contributor Dr. Yasir Masood explores the Global Power Shift:

From Unipolar Dominance to Multipolar Adaptation with Professor Michael Dunford of the University of Sussex

The global order is transitioning away from a unipolar system dominated by a single superpower, signalling a disruptive but transformative shift toward a more multipolar world. While the United States continues to leverage its financial and trade influence, the international system is evolving into one that prioritises equitable development, challenging historical patterns of inequality.

Historically, the global framework perpetuated significant disparities, with few exceptions such as China, which defied odds to emerge as a major economic power. Today, nations and regions are actively pursuing alternatives to traditional Western-centric models. Initiatives like regional currencies, parallel payment systems, and new alliances—not merely reactive decoupling measures—reflect a strategic "global rebalancing." These efforts aim to reduce dependency on established financial networks and foster diversified economic ecosystems.

The changing landscape underscores a critical pivot: the question is no longer about which nation leads but which adapts most effectively. As countries experiment with decentralized systems and partnerships, the focus shifts from hierarchical dominance to resilience and innovation. This transition, while fraught with short-term disruptions, could pave the way for a more inclusive international structure, mitigating the entrenched inequalities of the past.

In this era of recalibration, adaptability emerges as the defining metric of success, signalling that the future global order will reward flexibility over hegemony.

Editor's note: CGTN's First Voice provides instant commentary on breaking stories. The column clarifies emerging issues and better defines the news agenda, offering a Chinese perspective on the latest global events.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-04-12/Could-Trump-s-tariffs-turn-global-trade-topsy-turvy--1CvTIWyQncY/p.html

Watch Full Video

The Cannibalisation of allies and partners by the Trump administration highlights the increasing importance of China and its stabilising role for both the world economy and multilateralism.

In the period from 1945, the US dominated global manufacturing with over 50% of the world’s total output.

The US domination was manifest in its preponderant military and industrial complex,

but it also began to decline almost immediately as the US attempted to subordinate the world economy and political activities to its own global vision of hegemony.

And then there was the 1949 communist revolution and the imposition of a bamboo curtain by the Americans as they reneged on their Cairo declaration and decided to not return Taiwan directly to China.

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Welcome to The Chair.

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I'm your host, Dr. Vicky James Wren.

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And today we're having a quick look at the Australian election and our Labor's

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leading in the polls by about 10 points.

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But what that really means is if they lose five, it's going to be 50-50.

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So 45 to 55 for Labor.

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Now, Australia is in trouble.

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the economy is going to have and look the imf said this quite a few years ago uh 10

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years of declining living standards so now labor has gone from a couple of a couple

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of surpluses for the last few years now it's running going to go straight back into

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deficits and that money is going to be going into health care

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renewables, education, and the biggest one, of course, defense.

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Why, of course, I'm not really sure why, of course, but housing is also big.

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Medicare, so giving better medications and so forth.

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All that's going to come under

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conflict with the Trump administration's policies towards Australia and as I said

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with the aluminum or aluminium as the Australians say that's going to be

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problematic as well look it's very small percentage of GDP but you know it's the

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compound effect of all of the tariffs and the effect of the tariffs on other

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countries which trade with Australia and that's primarily China of course

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And so the boom,

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sort of the mini boom,

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let's say,

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that's been going on with minerals,

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you know,

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there was a really big boom back in the 90s and 2000s,

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but that's over.

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But in the last few years,

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there's been another boom as China's economy has switched into the new productive forces,

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EVs,

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of course,

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and solar panels and so forth.

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And now Australia is also transitioning and they rely on China for that.

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There's nowhere else they're going to be able to get this,

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you know,

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affordably,

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so good,

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fast and cheap,

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right?

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So that is the permanent dilemma the Australian government is in,

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balancing their security arrangements with the Americans,

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with their trade relationship with China.

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Now,

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China is far and away the biggest trade partner of Australia,

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and the budget doesn't really mention that,

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according to all of the information that I've been able to access.

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And you can read this in the ASEAN Chair.

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ASEAN Chair that has released...

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once a week there's updates on that there are other updates daily you can check

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daily but what we're looking at here is a very difficult election look I think

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Labor's probably going to win it I'll call it and say they're going to win but it

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look it could be very very narrow win and it's possible that the Greens may hold

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the balance of power or the teals as well which is you know young educated urban

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elites may hold the balance of power in the Senate and

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And an unlikely outcome,

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but possible outcome,

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is that they may hold the balance of power in the House as well.

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That is not good because,

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as we can see,

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it's happened in Europe with all of the political turmoil in Europe.

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Weak coalitions just cannot hold against the tariff and Trump effect.

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And so I think that's also true here in Australia.

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So one has to look very, very carefully at that.

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So if you're voting, just keep that in mind.

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Donald Trump really was asked the other day about AUKUS and he had to ask the journalist,

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what does that mean?

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He didn't really know.

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Now,

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it doesn't mean he doesn't know about submarines and he doesn't know about

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Australia's importance to the American security framework,

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you know,

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forward posture into Asia.

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And that's what it is, forward posture.

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You know,

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I'd be very,

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very worried about listening to John Anderson's podcast and YouTube channel where

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he interviewed the former Home Affairs Minister of Australia and they

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They were talking about a tyrannical China and Australia can't live with a China

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like that and so forth and so on.

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But this is absolutely not true.

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Look,

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China is not in any way interested in invading Australia or taking over Australia

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or anything else.

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What China is interested is stability.

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And Australia needs to be in stability as well.

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And the greatest source of instability in the world today is the United States.

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So this security arrangement...

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and the exorbitant,

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and I mean ultra-exorbitant cost of these submarines,

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which is basically just three really old Virginia-class American submarines based

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out of Western Australia and possibly some others based out of Wollongong or south

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of Sydney on the East Coast.

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uh i mean they're just american submarines being based out of australia uh there's

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technical upgrading and all that sort of thing for the australians so nuclear

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energy and things like that and the liberals uh you know the opposition they're

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promoting nuclear energy which is really not going to work very well but there is

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concerns of course about the

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the grid and being able to give stable enough energy and low cost for consumers but

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stable enough energy for you know the AI wave that's happening right now.

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Huge data centers need really reliable power and they quite often need enormous

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water resources for cooling and that means being able to build desalination plants

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in Australia's case because water is something Australia does not have a lot of.

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Now, let's think about China and its Australian exports.

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Australia is going to maintain and to get growth because it's anemic at the moment.

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To get growth, Australia is going to have to have a better relationship with China.

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And so the Trump tariff effect and...

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the new cabinet that he has,

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Hegseth as a military defense secretary,

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Marco Rubio,

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who's,

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you know,

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basically a neocon,

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totally anti-China.

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He's going to try and play Philippines.

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He's going to try and play Taiwan.

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But Australia cannot be falling into that.

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Now, Albanese, he has, and his government has...

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navigated a careful path along that line,

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but how much further they can go is going to be difficult.

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But look,

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I can see right now that although public opinion is not really changing

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definitively toward China,

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mainly because of the Rupert Murdoch News Corporation effect,

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which dominates Australian media to an extraordinary amount,

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And the idea that the ABC, that's the national broadcaster, needs to keep a measure of balance.

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But it's not really watched by most Australians.

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The mediascape is still anti-China and I think that's the next step that has to change.

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But Twiggy Forrest,

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one of the richest men in Australia who owns enormous iron ore mines in Western

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Australia and made his fortune in the iron ore to China trade and is still doing

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very well with that,

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has just succeeded in suing Meta or Facebook for things related to using his image

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uh for scams so online scamming being run by facebook and not just in australia but

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globally uh and as it puts that puts a very bad light on on the scams that have

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been reported all the time in cambodia and thailand and other places uh and uh so

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many indians uh but most recently uh been caught up in that not so many chinese um

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but twiggy forest action in america and against meter where he's uh he's won

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I don't know what the final ruling will be,

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but this tells us that the media interference in Australia is to a really abnormal

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level and basically is always or has always been anti-China.

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And once that chain is broken,

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once Rupert Murdoch's news corporation is not able to operate and that Meta is

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finally sort of pushed into a free speech and no scamming,

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well then possibly...

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Possibly we might find that the Australian electorate might start to believe that

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being friendly with China is in their best interest.

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And they used to think that prior to 2015.

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But, you know, it's a Morrison government, the Liberals and Morrison changed that.

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And so, let's get back to the election.

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Despite the media,

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let's say,

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imbalance in Australia,

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Labour has been careful to navigate,

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and that's historically been their case.

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They've always been pro-Asia, not just pro-China.

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You remember that Japan and South Korea are also very big markets for Australian exports.

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ASEAN is growing.

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There's a huge contingent of Australians in Vietnam and Cambodia and Thailand.

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trying very hard to build Australian businesses and education and health and

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services and so forth.

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And that's probably a good thing, generally speaking.

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So if the Labour can get back in,

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and I think they will,

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as I said before,

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there's a very good chance that those may strengthen.

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And that's going to be very good for China.

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And then one just needs to cast a quick eye,

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and we're still referring to the Australian election here.

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We just put a quick eye on to what's happening in China and...

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uh clearly they've just hosted a 60 i think it was 60 american business leaders and

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where um has said that china is opening up more and there's going to be more 100

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owned foreign businesses now this is an attempt to attract japanese south korean

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australian rcep investors and european investors and american investors to the

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chinese market where there's real growth because remember the atlanta fed just said

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two days ago that the the us was in indirect

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definitely going to have a contraction of over two percent in the second quarter.

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And all these tariff policies that Trump's put in has affected the dollar badly,

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it's affected the markets badly,

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it's affected the gold price.

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And so

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I think we're going to see that there's going to be more capital outflows out of the US.

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Now it's still an enormous capital market,

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much,

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much larger than Europe,

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which is number two,

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and China,

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which is a very small number three in that.

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But that was the case with cars before.

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That was the case with computers before,

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with chips,

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with phones,

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and with many,

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many other areas of what the manufacturing and the goods and services that we buy.

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still emanating from China,

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and as China moves up that value chain,

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I think that's very attractive for foreign investors,

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and that means Australia too.

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Now, Australia has got a chance here to really extend its lead in exports into China.

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Remember,

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Australia is a major competitor with the US for many exports,

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so the Americans don't like to see the Australians selling their agriculture or

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their minerals into China.

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And they're going to do whatever they can to stop that.

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There's no good on you, mate.

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Let's all be fair and be friends and have a beer at the pub.

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It's not like that.

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And just talking about beer,

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part of the mini budget that's been released is to take away excise or taxes on

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beer and wines and things like that.

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And that's probably very good.

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And what Australia needs to be doing, and I think what...

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Albanese is trying to achieve in the budget tonight is to get Australian companies

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to be more innovative,

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niche markets and sell into China and Asia much,

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much more.

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The US market, I think, is not going to be the target for them.

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Look,

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it's going to cost them enormous amounts of money and investment to get into the US market.

(00:11:20):

it's not worth it go to china go to asian invest your money in there and i think

(00:11:24):

you know as i said vietnam cambodia thailand malaysia indonesia that's the way to

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go and i'd like to see and of course number one is china and then japan south korea

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i'd like to see australia companies doing that