Top Traders Unplugged – Details, episodes & analysis

Michael Howell, Managing Director of Crossborder Capital and Author of the Capital Wars Substack, returns in this episode to speak with Alan Dunne about the liquidity cycle’s influence on global markets. Michael outlines how he sees rising liquidity growth providing a favourable backdrop for risky assets and that the conventional narrative that the Fed has been tightening liquidity via quantitative tightening is misplaced. They discuss how the requirement to refinance $70 trillion in debt every year, and the prospect of double digit growth in debt, will inevitably lead to monetary inflation with profound implications for assets like gold and equities. In contrast, although tactical duration issuance by the US Treasury has supported US Treasuries the longer term outlook is less favourable. The conversation also touches on global FX markets, the recent unwinding of the JPY carry trade, and Michael’s perspective on a possible tacit agreement to weaken the US dollar, which could have far-reaching consequences for liquidity and asset markets.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Michael on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:12 - Introduction to Michael Howell

03:15 - Howell's framework for looking at markets

06:32 - How Asian central banks impact U.S equities

09:17 - Do different types of liquidity have different effects?

12:17 - The last 15 years from a...

As August comes to an end, we discuss this month of extremes for the trend-following community, marked by significant dispersion in performance and unusual price activity across multiple asset classes as well as the economy in general. We address the strengths and limitations of replication strategies and Andrew shares insights into how he thinks about appropriate correlations levels between the benchmark and the replication strategy. We discuss the challenges of the due diligence process in replication strategies including team size, why you should start allocating to managed futures and finally Andrew reveals an exciting world premiere that he and his team has been part of.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:49 - What has been on our radar recently?

04:17 - Industry performance update

08:07 - Just another August?

12:35 - Q1, Martin: How to reduce drawdowns in the managed futures ETF space?

14:54 - Has replication become obsolete?

25:14 - Andrew's guidelines for correlation

31:56 - Staying in sync

35:47 - How to deal with the simplicity of replication strategies

43:42 - A world premiere!

51:05 - An index madness

53:05 - Beware of the shiny new things

56:02 - How the new index works

Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

In this episode we speak to Ernest Scheyder, an award-winning journalist, senior correspondent for Reuters and author of the acclaimed new book: The War Below: Lithium, Copper and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives. We can’t have green energy without mining. But there is no way around the fact that mining is loud, dangerous and disruptive. Our conversation explores this tension that sits at the center of the energy transition. We also discuss new technologies for mineral extraction and recycling that have the potential to resolve some of these conflicts if they can be commercialized. 

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Ernest on Twitter and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 - Introduction to Ernest Scheyder

03:11 - Why are lithium and copper so important?

05:44 - The outlook of the U.S lithium production

09:12 - Who is Ioneer and the environmental impact of lithium production

17:26 - What is Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) and why is it important?

23:17 - Supply and demand in lithium

25:02 - The challenges of recycling batteries

31:07 - Is a fully circular...

In this episode we lift the veil on China’s often secretive system for managing its multi-trillion dollar holdings of foreign assets. Guiding us through the discussion is Dr. Zhongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Liu spent years researching financial reports and conducting in-person interviews with those involved in running China’s multiple “Sovereign Leveraged Funds”. We discuss how they evolved, what purposes they serve for the Communist party and why other countries may soon follow China’s lead. The interview is based on Dr. Liu’s new book: How The Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Zongyuan on Twitter and Read her Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry

07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about

19:43 - Investing in a rising interest rate environment

24:06 - Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets

33:24...

Today Nick Baltas and I embark on a journey through the shifting tides of investment strategy. For decades, equities have reigned supreme as the primary source of portfolio returns, while bonds played a crucial role as diversifiers. But over the past two decades, something intriguing has happened, and the dynamic between these two asset classes has evolved in ways we've never seen before. Stay tuned as we unravel the fascinating story of this transformation and explore what it means for modern investors. We also discuss what a leading Trend Follower describes as what really determins absolute returns in a trend following strategy...and you may be surprised of what it is.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?

03:02 - Industry performance update

04:30 - Q1, Corey: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes

10:31 - How model portfolios can benefit from trend following

19:02 - A Changing Stock-Bond Correlation (AQR Paper)

23:50 - How structural inflation can impact the stock-bond correlation

27:46 - Illiquid alternatives and commodities as diversifiers

35:27 - Significant shifts in the asset allocation space

38:14 - Is cash better than bonds?

41:40 - Paper from Transtrend

47:15 - What really drives the absolute return in a trend...

Join us for a captivating episode where we delve into the hidden influence of confidence in our decision-making. Discover why seemingly unprecedented events are often predictable with the right insights. Peter Atwater provides an accessible framework for understanding confidence, helping us navigate uncertainty and lack of control. Our conversation delves into how confidence impacts politics and the economy, as well as how we can nurture confidence in the younger generation to face life's challenges with resilience. Tune in to gain valuable perspectives on the role of confidence in shaping our world.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Peter on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:04 - What does confidence mean to Peter?

04:38 - The feeling of vulnerability

06:19 - Being in the present

07:57 - Understanding the confidence map

12:08 - How to become confident

13:32 - Peter's advice for the younger audience

17:02 - Having confidence is not a constant

17:48 - Learnings from a traumatic experience

21:23 - Map it out

22:33 - Why is sentiment changing so quickly?

28:05 - The generational shift

30:49 - Is crypto the new Woodstock?

36:15 - Is the

Is the economy actually doing better than we expected? This week we are joined by Andrew Beer, where we discuss the use of replication strategies in the current economic environment and how many markets/factors you should include, how managers can differentiate themselves from each other and the outlook for growth in the CTA industry. We also discuss the challenges of the Lemming effect in investing and today’s obsession with multi-strategy hedge funds, the capacity of the trend following industry and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:20 - What has happened recently?

05:51 - Industry performance update?

07:13 - Are managed futures funds are right for replication?

13:55 - How did they test it?

17:23 - Are economies becoming less synchronised?

25:02 - How many markets are enough for replication?

29:01 - Why are people going into alternative markets?

32:58 - Have managers become more different or similar?

41:02 - Industry disruptions - how is Andrew different?

47:22 - Why CTA assets will be much higher in 10 years

54:44 - How Andrew resist making changes to his replication strategy

56:54 - Train wreck in hedge fund land

01:04:02 - How do multi-strat funds manage their expenses?

01:08:25 - The challenges of the industry

01:14:21 - Thanks for listening

Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG –

In this episode we are joined by a true Macro thinker, Nelson Rangel, CIO at Raven Capital. Nelson walks us through his fascinating lens of the world evolved from his formative career years where his mentors taught him chaos theory and quantitative analysis. The conversation delves in to global conflict, adapting to social media information flows, and the challenges of finding investment value in LATAM markets. Be sure to stick around to the very end where Nelson leaves us with a cliff hanger as he reveals the beginning of his three part investment framework to interpret the impact of human contact with more advanced civilizations!

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Nelson on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:32 - Introduction to Nelson Rangel

08:09 - Takeaways from being exposed to chaos theory

12:29 - A look around the globe

17:37 - Reflecting on the U.S debt

21:17 - How is the next decade unfolding for China?

25:29 - The BRICs taking over the monetary system

30:38 - Who is behind the manipulation of narrative on social media?

34:58 - Being adaptable to new scenarios

39:26 - Advice for investing in South America

48:14 - News about UAPs (UFOs)

56:24 - Key takeaways from Niels

Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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PLUS: Whenever you're

Today, we welcome Katy Kaminski to the Systematic Investor Series, as we dive deep into trend following systems and how to overcome the unintended biases that can creep into CTA systems, why Katy believes everybody has to “go back to the drawing board”, why it is unrealistic to expect things to go back to “normal”, and why Katy believes we are not in a crisis but rather a correction. We also discuss how a crisis is in the eye of the beholder and shed light on the current global macro narrative. We round things off uncovering why Katy believes bonds are mispriced, why "simple" trend following strategies persist to thrive and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:16 - What has caught our attention recently?

03:43 - Industry performance update

06:06 - The challenge of bias in trend following systems

13:54 - Taking the bonds out?

16:22 - Advice on trading universal parameters

19:35 - Going back to normal - a fantasy?

23:35 - Trend following - a long divergence strategy

26:31 - Are we actually in a crisis?

32:05 - Are crises becoming shorter and shorter?

36:38 - How does Katy define a crisis?

37:40 - A different understanding of trend following?

40:32 - Are there different types of crises?

45:55 - A global macro perspective

51:38 - Are bonds mispriced?

55:37 -...

Chen Zhao, co-founder and Chief Global Strategist at Alpine Macro joins us today to outline why growth has been resilient in 2023 but why he sees deflation and an economic downturn as a rising risk as we move into in 2024. We hear why the best global macro trades are the hardest to hold and why he believes long fixed income is the best trade at the moment. We discuss the long term outlook for growth and inflation in the major economies and hear why Chen is dismissive of the idea that deglobalisation and the greening of the global economy may be inflationary forces going forward. We also discuss investment opportunities in Japan and emerging markets and hear why Chen is concerned about the macro outlook in China but sees value in the local stock market.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Chen on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 - Who is Chen Zhao?

06:19 - Why has the economy been so resilient?

11:20 - The typical electoral cycle?

16:44 - The outlook for inflation

19:27 - Concerns about stagflation - valid or not?

26:07 - Rates going back to zero?

28:48 - Achieving high sustained investment growth

31:01 - The effect of moving towards climate friendly production

32:57 - China - a deflationary force

38:38 - Bond yields - any surprises?

39:29 - Concerns...