Explore every episode of the podcast The Threat Next Door

Full transcript (EN + FR) available here:

https://thethreatnextdoor.wordpress.com/2026/07/21/3-estonia-an-existential-vulnerability/

In the third episode of The Threat Next Door, I had the pleasure of speaking with George Spencer Terry, lecturer in Strategic Studies at the Baltic Defence College in Tartu and editor of the Conference on Russia Papers.

Unlike much of Western Europe, Estonia did not experience Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine as the beginning of a new era, but as the confirmation of a threat it had never believed had disappeared. For a country whose independence has repeatedly been interrupted by foreign occupation, security is inseparable from historical memory, legal continuity, and collective resilience.

Recorded on site at the Baltic Defence College in Tartu, this conversation explores how Estonia's experience of Soviet occupation continues to influence its strategic culture, from the restoration of the 1918 Republic and the symbolic importanceof the Treaty of Tartu, to citizenship policies, the integration of theRussian-speaking minority, NATO membership, hybrid warfare, deterrence, and the limits of rational-actor thinking when analysing Russian behaviour.

Beyond Estonia, this discussion raises broader questions about how historical experience shapes threat perception. Why did the Baltic states read Russia differently from much of Western Europe? How do small states preserve sovereignty when facing a revisionist power? And what does collective security mean when deterrence depends as much on political credibility as on military capability?

This is Episode Three: Estonia - An Existential Vulnerability.

00:00 Introduction

06:57 Living in the Shadow of Russia

17:49 Nationhood Under Pressure

38:13 Ukraine - the War Estonia Saw Coming

54:39 An Uncertain Future

01:01:37 Conclusion

Full transcript (EN + FR) available here:

https://thethreatnextdoor.wordpress.com/2026/07/06/2-finland-managing-proximity/

In the second episode of The Threat Next Door, I had the pleasure of speaking with Katri Pynnöniemi, Associate Professor at the University of Helsinki and holder of the Mannerheim Chair in Russian Security Studies, alongside Matti Pesu, Senior Research Fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, to explore how Finland understands the Russian threat in the aftermath of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

For Finland, Russia is not simply a geopolitical issue discussed from afar. Sharing a 1,340-kilometre border with its eastern neighbour and shaped by a long history of wars, coexistence, and strategic adaptation, Finland has developed a security culture unlike that of most Western European states. While Russia's invasion of Ukraine represented a historic turning point, many of the concerns it raised had long been present in Finnish strategic thinking.

Together, we discuss Finland's relationship with Russia, the legacy of the Winter War, deterrence, comprehensive security, NATO membership, hybrid threats, civil preparedness, and the difficult balance between maintaining dialogue and preparing for confrontation. We also examine how Russia's imperial worldview influences its foreign policy, why supporting Ukraine remains essential for European security, and what Finland's experience can teach the rest of Europe about resilience.

This is Episode Two: Finland - Managing Proximity.

00:00 Introduction

03:15 The Historical Roots of the Finno-Russian Relationship

09:27 Finlandization : Navigating Asymmetry

17:54 The Finnish Model of Total Defence

26:10 Living Next to Russia

30:25 The Russian Threat (since the mid-2000s)

45:32 The NATO Membership

51:22 The Risk of Escalation

55:21 Ending The War : Is there a way forward ?

57:44 Conclusion

Full transcript (EN + FR) available here : 

https://thethreatnextdoor.wordpress.com/2026/06/22/1-sweden-the-limits-of-neutrality/

In the first episode of The Threat Next Door, I had the pleasure to receive Joakim Paasikivi, former Swedish Army lieutenant colonel, military strategist, and geopolitical analyst to discuss about how Russia's invasion of Ukraine transformed Swedish security thinking and led the country to abandon its long-standing strategy of military non-alignment to join NATO.

For more than two centuries, Sweden cultivated an image of neutrality, staying outside military alliances and major European conflicts. Beyond this narrative lies a much more complex relationship with Russia, shaped by centuries of rivalry, strategic concerns, and shifting security realities. The war in Ukraine marked a decisive turning point, bringing an end to Sweden’s tradition of military non-alignment and reshaping its approach to national security.

Together, we explore the myths and realities of Swedish neutrality, Russia's place in Swedish strategic culture, NATO enlargement, deterrence, fears of escalation, nuclear weapons, and the growing uncertainty surrounding the transatlantic alliance.

Beyond Sweden, this conversation raises broader questions about Europe's future. As the return of war and power politics challenges long-held assumptions about peace and stability, how should European societies adapt? What happens when deterrence weakens, alliances are questioned, and strategic uncertainty becomes the norm?

This is Episode One: Sweden – The Limits of Neutrality.

00:00 Introduction

03:09 Sweden's Neutrality: Myth, Strategy, or Identity?

08:43 Russia as the arch enemy

13:40 Ukraine as a Turning Point (since 2022)

21:15 NATO: Rupture, Continuity, or Necessity?

29:36 Escalation Risks and Nuclear Deterrence

40:21 Nuclear Deterrence and Sweden's Anti-Nuclear Tradition

45:35 Conclusion

Full transcript (EN + FR) available here :

https://thethreatnextdoor.wordpress.com/2026/06/10/0-introduction-getting-closer/

In this introductory episode, I explain the origins of the project, the questions that motivated it, and why I decided to travel across Northern and Eastern Europe to speak with experts from Finland, Sweden, and Estonia about how they perceive the war in Ukraine and the Russian threat.

🎙️ Featuring upcoming conversations with:
• Joakim Paasikivi (Sweden)
• Matti Pesu & Katri Pynnöniemi (Finland)
• Georges Spencer Terry (Estonia)

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