Full transcript (EN + FR) available here :
https://thethreatnextdoor.wordpress.com/2026/06/22/1-sweden-the-limits-of-neutrality/
In the first episode of The Threat Next Door, I had the pleasure to receive Joakim Paasikivi, former Swedish Army lieutenant colonel, military strategist, and geopolitical analyst to discuss about how Russia's invasion of Ukraine transformed Swedish security thinking and led the country to abandon its long-standing strategy of military non-alignment to join NATO.
For more than two centuries, Sweden cultivated an image of neutrality, staying outside military alliances and major European conflicts. Beyond this narrative lies a much more complex relationship with Russia, shaped by centuries of rivalry, strategic concerns, and shifting security realities. The war in Ukraine marked a decisive turning point, bringing an end to Sweden’s tradition of military non-alignment and reshaping its approach to national security.
Together, we explore the myths and realities of Swedish neutrality, Russia's place in Swedish strategic culture, NATO enlargement, deterrence, fears of escalation, nuclear weapons, and the growing uncertainty surrounding the transatlantic alliance.
Beyond Sweden, this conversation raises broader questions about Europe's future. As the return of war and power politics challenges long-held assumptions about peace and stability, how should European societies adapt? What happens when deterrence weakens, alliances are questioned, and strategic uncertainty becomes the norm?
This is Episode One: Sweden – The Limits of Neutrality.
00:00 Introduction
03:09 Sweden's Neutrality: Myth, Strategy, or Identity?
08:43 Russia as the arch enemy
13:40 Ukraine as a Turning Point (since 2022)
21:15 NATO: Rupture, Continuity, or Necessity?
29:36 Escalation Risks and Nuclear Deterrence
40:21 Nuclear Deterrence and Sweden's Anti-Nuclear Tradition
45:35 Conclusion