Economics controls the world but what do we understand of it? The Invisible Hand offers a deep dive into the current trends of the Australian economy; offering clear insight into macroeconomic trends that shape the way businesses make decisions and why. From inflation to the influence of China, or wage stagnation, The Invisible Hand cuts through the noise of the day. Taking influence from political economic training and business acumen, the podcast is accessible, informative and fun.
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#22 - Australia’s Rate Shift with Global Trade Realignments and the Affordability Debate
Monday, February 16, 2026 • Duration 49:07
We have some big news, and congratulations are definitely in order for Domenique, who is expecting her first child. She’ll be taking a little step back from the podcast for a while, but will be back later in the year. Today’s show is about the RBA’s February rate hike, shifting global trade dynamics, and the growing debate over affordability.
We kick off with What’s in the News focusing on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February decision to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 percent. We unpack the inflation backdrop behind the move, what it means for mortgage holders versus savers, and why Australia now finds itself moving differently from much of the global central bank pack.
We also talk through the announcement of Kevin Warsh as the incoming Federal Reserve Chair and the ripple effects that quickly moved across markets. That naturally leads into gold, which saw a remarkable surge in January before pulling back. Taken together, these developments highlight the ongoing tension between inflation pressures and relatively soft economic growth.
The Hand then looks outward. The discussion explores how India and the European Union are deepening trade ties amid ongoing US tariff uncertainty, and why India’s economic trajectory is becoming harder for countries like Australia to ignore. Canada’s carefully managed thaw with China also enters the frame, offering another example of nations quietly adjusting their economic relationships without making dramatic breaks.
In The Invisible, we discuss affordability, a word that’s everywhere in political messaging, but far more complex in practice. Is this truly a crisis, or are perception and macroeconomic data telling slightly different stories? Housing, electricity, wages, and consumer psychology all play a role as the episode closes on the structural forces shaping how people actually experience the economy.
Episode Highlights:
[04:22] The discussion opens with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February decision to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 percent, the first increase since November 2023.
[05:05] Inflation’s pickup through the second half of 2025 is identified as the central driver behind the RBA’s move.
[06:00] Paul notes that while rate hikes are painful for mortgage holders, controlling inflation remains the RBA’s primary mandate.
[07:10] Australia’s policy divergence from the US and Europe introduces uncertainty around exchange rates and global alignment.
[08:20] Exchange rate volatility emerges as a key risk when central banks are no longer moving in lockstep.
[09:05] The tension between rising interest rates and relatively soft Australian GDP growth comes into focus.
[10:50] Government spending’s contribution to growth and its potential inflationary side effects becomes a central theme.
[12:10] A surprise surge in household consumption during Q4 is highlighted as an important inflation pressure.
[13:40] Export strength in iron ore, coal, gas, and gold is credited with supporting Australia’s recent growth.
[15:10] State-level divergence sharpens, with Victoria struggling while WA and Queensland show strong demand.
[18:10] China’s extraordinary expansion in electricity production is contrasted with the US’s relatively flat output since 2010.
[19:45] The scale of China’s state-backed investment strategy is framed as a long-term positioning advantage.
[22:29] Kevin Walsh’s nomination to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair sparks discussion on market reactions and policy expectations.
[24:10] Gold’s surge above $5,000 per ounce and subsequent volatility reflect heightened global uncertainty.
[26:20] India’s deepening economic engagement with the European Union is presented as a logical strategic pivot.
[31:10] Paul emphasizes India as a major long-term opportunity for Australia’s export diversification.
[34:20] Canada’s measured thaw with China is interpreted largely as geopolitical signaling rather than macroeconomic shift.
[37:24] The conversation transitions to affordability, examining the gap between political rhetoric and economic data.
[39:50] Inflation moderation in the US is contrasted with persistent consumer frustration over housing and utilities.
[42:45] Electricity costs are identified as a structural pressure point driven by supply constraints and grid investment needs.
[45:16] Housing affordability challenges are tied back to supply shortages rather than short-term policy fixes.
[46:56] Structural problems are framed as slow-moving realities that resist quick political solutions.
[48:00] Listener feedback on economic models and policy perspectives is acknowledged as a valued part of the show.
[48:53] Best of luck for Dominique’s next chapter and stay curious!
#21 - 2025 in Review: Conflict, Power, and How the Predictions Actually Held Up
Tuesday, January 20, 2026 • Duration 01:49:26
Looking back on 2025, it’s tempting to think it was just another noisy year that blurred into the background. But once you slow down and actually line up the events, a very different picture emerges. Conflict intensified, political power shifted, markets absorbed shocks that once would have caused panic, and several long-running assumptions about global leadership were quietly challenged.
This episode is our annual predictions review, where Paul puts last year’s calls back on the table and we assess how they actually played out. We walk through economic growth, inflation, interest rates, housing, global markets, geopolitics, and asset prices. You’ll have to tune in to find out how he did.
From there, Paul lays out his 2026 predictions, explaining how the forces that defined 2025 are likely to evolve rather than disappear. We talk about rising geopolitical tension, the shifting balance between the U.S. and China, ongoing conflict risk, and what all of this could mean for growth, inflation, and markets in the year ahead. It’s less about bold claims and more about understanding the range of scenarios we’re walking into and why 2026 may not look like a repeat of the year we’ve just left behind.
Episode Highlights:
[00:06] We open with a year-in-review framing and reflect on how chaotic and overwhelming 2025 felt in hindsight.
[01:23] A rundown of Trump’s second-term actions, including climate withdrawal, migration crackdowns, and institutional shakeups.
[02:28] Elon Musk’s brief role leading the Department of Government Efficiency and the fallout from mass federal job losses.
[04:28] The assassination of Charlie Kirk and its impact on political discourse and social tension in the United States.
[05:41] Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs and why global markets proved more resilient than many expected.
[07:13] Central banks begin cutting rates as inflation eases after years of post-COVID tightening.
[08:20] Conflict becomes the defining theme of 2025, beginning with Gaza and a fragile ceasefire.
#20 - Australia’s Turning Point with Monthly CPI Energy Realities and Housing Imbalances
Friday, December 5, 2025 • Duration 44:02
Inflation has turned upward again, and this month’s news brings a shift that economists and households alike will feel. In What’s in the News, we start with the first official monthly CPI release from the ABS, which shows headline inflation rising to 3.8 percent. We walk through what’s driving the move including housing costs, food prices, and the sharp jump in electricity bills. We also look at why the RBA is expected to hold rates despite the reversal in trend.
In The Hand, the conversation shifts to the real pressure point behind the scenes: structurally higher energy costs that rebates have been masking for more than a year. We examine how years of policy instability have stalled long-term investment in baseload generation, why emerging technologies like hydrogen remain far from cost-effective, and how the rollback of subsidies is exposing the true cost of the system Australians rely on every day.
Then in The Invisible, we turn to the widening housing shortfall, where record population growth is colliding with weak construction activity. Domenique outlines the gap between migration and dwelling supply, and Paul breaks down why the Housing Australia Future Fund has fallen dramatically behind its targets. Together, we connect these trends to the structural forces shaping inflation, affordability, and opportunity across the economy.
Episode Highlights:
[00:06] We open with a look at the first official monthly CPI print released by the ABS.
[01:01] Listener encounters at a securitisation conference spark a conversation about academic roots and shared backgrounds.
[02:09] Interest grows around the idea of a live event as the two of us gauge audience enthusiasm.
[03:36] The What’s in the News segment begins with a deep dive into the October CPI reading, which shows inflation rising to 3.8 percent.
[04:20] Discussion turns to why Australia shifted from quarterly to monthly CPI reporting and how the ABS constructs the new series.
[06:36] Key inflation drivers include housing, electricity, and food come into focus as we unpack the pressures behind the latest numbers.
#19 - RBA Policy, Russia’s War Economy, and Global Demographic Decline
Monday, October 20, 2025 • Duration 50:28
This week, as the dust settles on another quarter of global economic uncertainty, we’re trying to find pockets of optimism. We actually found one right here at home. Domenique kicks us off with a surprising announcement. She's launched a new dip company with her partner in New South Wales! We take that local entrepreneurship and immediately zoom out to the world of finance, where gold prices are up a remarkable 50% this year. The whole conversation becomes a search for the connections between small-scale ventures and the massive forces that drive the world economy.
In our first major segment, What’s in the News, we dive into three of the week's biggest movers including the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent decision to hold rates, the latest Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, and the World Intellectual Property Organization’s innovation rankings. This leads to a discussion about the true engines of progress. We look at everything from the history of scientific thought to the painful but necessary concept of creative destruction. Our conclusion? Sustained, meaningful growth doesn't come from policy alone. It relies on how well societies connect foundational knowledge, invention, and an institutional openness to radically new ideas.
We transition into a hard look at global stability. In The Hand, we break down the surprising resilience of Russia’s war economy, the shadowy and often misunderstood hidden oil trade, and what a slowing GDP across major nations actually means for global risk. Then, we wrap up with The Invisible, which tackles Elon Musk’s insistence that population collapse is the greatest long-term threat to civilization. This prompts us to consider the future of growth itself, and whether an aging, shrinking global populace can still power the world forward.
Episode Highlights:
[02:12] Our conversation shifts to investment regrets and the surge in gold prices, up over 50% this year.
[03:21] We debate whether gold remains a safe haven or if it’s now overvalued in a volatile global economy.
[05:01] We preview key topics from What’s in the News including the RBA’s rate decision, the Nobel Prize in Economics, and global innovation rankings.
#18 - Productivity on Pause: Why Australia Risks Falling Behind
Wednesday, September 3, 2025 • Duration 36:50
Australia’s economy is growing, but the gains aren’t keeping pace with the past. Domenique and Paul open with a sharp focus on stalled productivity growth and why it matters. Along with how it shapes living standards, and why it feels like today’s prosperity is being borrowed from tomorrow. From there, what’s in the news takes over. We discuss housing prices climbing for the sixth straight month with Darwin leading the charge, commodities bouncing around on tariff headlines, solar panels and home batteries taking off as energy bills keep rising, and Trump’s tariffs ruled illegal by a federal appeals court but still hanging in limbo until the Supreme Court decides.
With the headlines as backdrop, they turn to the hand that’s steering the bigger story: Australia’s productivity puzzle. Despite decades of growth, productivity has flatlined, and in some years even gone backwards. Domenique and Paul dig into why including slow adoption of new technology, a heavy reliance on mining, and government spending propping things up instead of real efficiency gains. The result is a gap with other economies that are moving faster, and GDP per capita that’s slipping instead of rising. They call it a kind of “intergenerational theft,” where today’s Australians are coasting on the work of earlier generations rather than building new strength for the future.
The conversation closes with the invisible connections between energy and housing. Homeowners are cashing in on rooftop solar and rebates, trimming bills and even selling power back to the grid. Renters are largely left out with less than 10% of rental properties having solar. They’re stuck shouldering higher energy costs with none of the upside. Domenique and Paul go back and forth on whether governments should give landlords stronger incentives to install panels, or whether the real fix is helping more renters become owners in the first place. Either way, it’s a clear example of how ownership, incentives, and policy end up deciding who gets ahead and who falls behind.
Episode Highlights:
[00:06] Domenique and Paul open with protests, bridge closures, and a surprise story about Nauru’s costly deal with Australia.
[03:07] They outline the episode structure: what’s in the news, the hand on productivity, and the invisible link between housing and energy.
#17 - Pressure Points: The Fed, Trump’s Tariffs, and the Rise of Hermès
Monday, August 11, 2025 • Duration 31:21
Domenique and Paul dig into the economic pressures shaping the world right now, kicking off with What’s in the News. They break down the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates at 4.5%, despite internal dissent and political pressure. With U.S. GDP bouncing back to 3% in Q2 and inflation holding at 2.7%, they look at how front-loaded imports to beat tariffs distorted the numbers—and why Jerome Powell is under fire once again.
The segment also covers Trump’s latest tariff hikes: Brazil gets hit with a jump from 10% to 50%, and India faces a new 25% rate over ties to Russian oil and arms. As a wildcard, the hosts turn to luxury giant Hermès, whose 9% sales increase and surge past LVMH in market cap says a lot about rising inequality and the power of capital in an inflationary world.
In The Hand, focus shifts to Australia, where the RBA also held its rate at 3.85%. Domenique and Paul unpack the meeting minutes, revealing a split board trying to weigh falling inflation against new global shocks. With unemployment still at record lows and job growth coming largely from the public sector, the RBA is stuck trying to make forward-looking decisions in a world that keeps shifting.
Finally, in The Invisible, they explore Southeast Asia’s rising role in the global AI race. With over two gigawatts of data center capacity, countries like Singapore and Malaysia are becoming a vital link between U.S. and Chinese tech ambitions. Billions are pouring in from Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet. While firms like Huawei and Alibaba quietly route around U.S. restrictions. It’s a clever move for global players and a missed opportunity for Australia.
Episode Highlights:
[02:37] What's In The News: The FED kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.5%. The US economy grew at 3% in Q2.
[03:22] Jerome Powell is under a lot of political pressure.
[05:07] No one knows what to do with these unpredictable outcomes.
[06:10] Trump would still like the rates cut, and he raised tariffs on Brazil. He's also adding an additional 25% tariff on India.
#16 - Re-elections, Reversals, and Ratings: Australia and the Global Economy
Friday, May 30, 2025 • Duration 40:39
What happens when political forecasts miss the mark, global rules evolve, and economic models don’t quite capture reality? In this episode, we dive into the major political and economic stories shaping Australia’s role on the world stage. Co-hosts Domenique Sherab and Paul Scanlon take you through a three-part format, delivering insightful analysis and grounded perspectives on the key forces driving markets and policy decisions.
We start by unpacking Australia’s recent federal election, where the Labor Party achieved a historic re-election while the Liberal campaign faced an unexpected and significant setback which caught many by surprise. Next, Domenique and Paul turn their attention to the U.S. lifting long-standing sanctions on Syria, exploring what this move might mean for the region’s recovery, trade opportunities, and shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Then our focus shifts to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest interest rate cut, highlighting the growing uncertainties in the global economy and the potential return of inflation amid changing trade landscapes.
Wrapping up, the conversation broadens to a global scale with Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, ending its AAA status, and what this signals about fiscal trustworthiness and the evolving rules around sovereign debt. Throughout, Domenique and Paul bring a distinctly Australian viewpoint to help make sense of a fast-changing economic environment.
Episode Highlights:
[00:57] Paul has recently returned from a holiday in South Africa and other African regions.
[01:28] We'll be discussing the new government in Australia, Syrian sanctions, the latest RBA cut, and Moody's downgrade of the US economy in our segments: "What's in the News?", "The Hand", and "The Invisible".
[02:06] What's in the news? The Australian election was on May 3rd. Anthony Albanese was re-elected.
[03:52] We share our analysis of the election.
[07:16] On May 12th, Donald Trump announced the US would lift sanctions on Syria.
#15 - The Invisible Hand
Thursday, May 1, 2025 • Duration 47:58
In episode 15, Domenique and Paul try to avoid talking about Trump's tariffs but end up doing it alot. In between, they discuss housing affordability in Australia and the major parties policy proposals to address this before the upcoming Australian election; and whether the Euro could ever become the global reserve currency.
#14 – The Invisible Hand
Thursday, April 10, 2025 • Duration 43:20
In this episode, Domenique and Paul throw out the plan for the episode to discuss the biggest economic news story of the day: the fall out from Trump's new tariff regime on the world.
#13 - The Invisible Hand
Monday, March 24, 2025 • Duration 39:52
In this episode, Domenique and Paul discuss Trump's tariffs and Chinese consumption, dive deep into the findings of the Knight Frank Wealth Report and consider the big economic risks for 2025.
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[06:48] It's difficult for economists to make predictions that are based on political decisions.
[10:39] Hermès reported a 9% year-on-year sales increase in Q2. Driven by continued demand for their beautiful Birkin handbag.
[11:11] Increased consumption of high-end luxury goods when the cost of living is going up. What we are seeing around the world is the impact of inflation on wealth distribution.
[13:35] The Hand: The RBA surprised markets in July by holding the cash rate steady at 3.85%, despite widespread expectations of a cut. The RBA is treading carefully.
[14:53] They have a data-driven view, in spite of political pressure.
[15:49] The great challenge for rate decisions is that they affect the future.
[16:25] How the labor market fits in to this.
[18:31] The Federal Government workforce in Australia is going to expand.
[19:55] The Invisible: The burgeoning AI industry in Southeast Asia. Singapore's new Prime Minister, Lawrence Wong said that economic restrictions are futile in an interconnected world, while on a trip to China.
[21:13] Southeast Asia is the central hub for the global tech race between America and China.
[22:46] Singapore has created a great centrally planned economy.
[24:47] Singapore is walking on both sides of the fence with the US and China.
[25:50] How China is involving themselves in Southeast Asia to avoid US restrictions. Through Southeast Asia, China is able to get tech that they otherwise wouldn't be able to get.
[27:34] The US, China, and large tech companies are heavily investing in Southeast Asia.
[28:52] The US has pressured Malaysia to tighten export controls.
[30:04] How the US and China have different approaches when doing business in other countries.
[10:30] The speed or pace at which Syria can benefit from that re-entry into global trading markets will be dependent on the speed and ability for it to rebuild that trade and economic infrastructure.
[12:13] The hand: The RBA lowered rates last week.
[15:31] The preemptive cut to stimulate the economy is appropriate.
[16:27] How the rate cut will affect keeping inflation and unemployment rates stable.
[25:54] A big shout out to the Odd Lots podcast.
[28:35] Paul talks about what all this analysis means for his January predictions.
[30:01] The invisible: On May 16th, 2025, Moody's downgraded the United States credit rating, making it the last major rating agency to strip the US of its AAA rating.
[31:54] Credit ratings are important and they affect the price of your debt.
[36:46] This debt issue is what Trump is trying to address.
[37:28] How many countries have AAA credit rating? There are 12 including Australia.
