In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied take the stage as a dynamic duo, flying solo without their third musketeer, Haroon, who’s off on PTO (probably in a pickleball tournament or hiding from the Fed). With no one to keep them in check, the two dive headfirst into a whirlwind of financial insights, market predictions, and why the MAG 7 tech giants are carrying the S&P 500 on their backs like Atlas — except Tesla, whose latest earnings had investors buzzing despite mixed results. It’s a "two wise men" operation this week, and things get as real as inflation at a gas pump on payday.

➡️ Chris and Saied break down the love-hate relationship between the markets and the Fed — one’s bullish, the other’s just a buzzkill. They riff on whether inflation is here to stay, question if we’re headed for stagflation, and poke fun at economists trying to predict a recession like it’s the weather. Along the way, they tackle rising insurance premiums, paycheck-to-paycheck living, and the surreal cost of burritos ($46 for breakfast?!). With humor, hard-hitting insights, and a few Monopoly references thrown in for good measure, this episode is a wild ride through the tangled mess of today’s economy.

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🧊 Get 12% off any purchase at Ice Barrel (Excludes chillers)

🔗 Resources:

Financial insecurity and cost of living (Business Insider)

Tweet on inflation and financial markets (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Tweet on housing affordability crisis (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Tweet on MAG 7 stocks and market concentration (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Tesla's Q3 Earnings Report (Yahoo Finance)

Existing Home Sales Fall To 14 Year Low (Yahoo Finance via Instagram)

Here’s when prices might ease, per Fed’s Daly (MarketWatch)

⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are

Consumers might have to wait two to three years for their perceptions of inflation to normalize, as highlighted by Fed’s Daly, leaving many still wincing at higher prices. Meanwhile, falling home prices are causing significant distress, particularly in ten states where mortgage balances now exceed property values.

➡️ Episode 252 of The Higher Standard podcast dives into the alarming drop in US mortgage applications, which saw a 17% decrease—the largest since April 2020—along with potential benefits for homeowners in certain cities as interest rates tumble. The discussion also covers the anxiety surrounding credit card debt among Americans and JPMorgan’s new strategy to attract affluent clients with enticing branch experiences. Wrapping up, Chris, Saied and Haroon tackle why so many companies are firing Gen-Z employees, emphasizing a disconnect between workplace expectations and work ethic in today’s job market.

💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?

👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com

🧊 Get 12% off any purchase at Ice Barrel (Excludes chillers)

🔗 Resources:

Here’s when consumers might finally stop wincing at higher prices, according to Fed’s Daly (MarketWatch)

Falling home prices are hitting homeowners in these 10 states the hardest — with up to 10% of mortgage balancesnow topping their property values (Business Insider)

JUST IN: US mortgage applications have dropped by 17.0% over the last week, the most since April 2020 (X / The Kobeissi Letter)

22 cities where homebuyers and owners will benefit most as interest rates tumble (Apple News)

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Sept Update: Prices Drop in 26 of 28 Big Metros, even San Diego, Los Angeles (Wolf Street)

Americans are really anxious about their credit card debt (The Street)

'Signature bites' and free umbrellas: Inside JPMorgan’s plan to lure more rich people to its branches (Yahoo Finance)

In episode 243 of The Higher Standard podcast, hosts Chris, Saied, and Haroon dive headfirst into the world of social media financial influencers, giving a no-holds-barred critique of those you should avoid at all costs. They call out big names like Grant Cardone, Pace Morby, Kris Krohn, Luke Belmar, Albert Preciado and more.

➡️ As the conversation shifts gears, the hosts tackle some of the hottest financial news floating around Instagram. They break down the cooling inflation rates, the credit card debt that's soaring to dizzying heights, and Starbucks' bold move of poaching Chipotle's CEO like it's a new menu item. It wouldn’t be The Higher Standard without a little pop culture flair, the hosts wrap up with a whirlwind tour through the latest celebrity news and jaw-dropping headlines—from Adele’s engagement to Rich Paul to Tom Cruise’s Olympic-sized stunt planning.

💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?

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✔️ Click the link and start today: http://www.transcendcompany.com/THSP

👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com

🔗 Resources:

Inflation cools to lowest level since march 2021 (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

U.S. consumer price index (NBC Chart Of The Day via Instagram)

Overall inflation below 3% for first time since march 2021 (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Credit card debt hit record $1.14 trillion (NBC Chart Of The Day via Instagram)

Starbucks soars after poaching chipotle CEO (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain its benchmark lending rate at the 5%-5.25% range, marking the first skip after 10 consecutive increases going back to March of last year. While officials’ efforts have helped to reduce price pressures in the US economy, inflation remains well above their goal. Investors’ focus will be on the Fed’s quarterly dot plot in its Summary of Economic Projections, which is expected to show the policy benchmark rate at 5.1% at the end of 2023. 

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss comments from Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, who claims to be surprised at the way the US economy has weathered higher interest rates, elevated inflation, and banking turmoil over the past year.

Chris and Saied look at recent Fed data, indicating that Americans have a record amount of credit card debt right now — close to $990 billion.

They also offer some thoughts on a revised home prices forecast from Goldman Sachs strategists, who now predict a smaller decline this year — 2.2% decline in 2023, down from 6.1%. 

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• The little signs that people are noticing that signal a recession.
• Why people are reluctant to change their living standards.
• Why consumers will start cutting back on discretionary spending.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"The U.S. economy has been incredibly resilient,” Goldman Sachs CEO" (CNBC)

"Americans have almost $990 billion in credit card debt" (Marketplace)

"The hidden risk on bank balance sheets" (Axios)

"'I told you so': Dave Ramsey made the correct call on US real estate 18 months ago — but is he still right about housing in 2023? Here's what the financial guru thinks now" (Moneywise)

https://moneywise.com/real-estate/dave-ramseys-2023-real-estate-predictions

"Wall Street is divided on the outlook for US house prices. Here's what 6 experts have recently said." (Markets Insider)

"Fed Is Set to Pause and Assess the Effect of Rate Hikes" (Bloomberg)

According to Michael Gapen, Bank of America's chief economist, the US economy will likely face a mild recession later this year, but the risk of a severe economic downturn appears low as of now. A correction of labor-market imbalances is needed to bring inflation back down to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and that typically looks like a mild recession. With risks receding, stress in the banking sector stabilizing, and macroeconomic trends looking good, Gapen said the Fed faces a tough decision regarding interest rates and investors can't completely rule out the possibility of another hike.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a report from the Labor Department, indicating that initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 261,000 for the week ended June 3, an increase of 28,000 from the upwardly revised level of the previous period.

Chris and Saied look at data from Realtor.com with the National Association of Realtors, showing that the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered in the high-6% range in May. At that level, buyers with an annual income of $100,000, slightly above the national median, could afford a house with a maximum price of about $341,000, however just 39% of the homes for sale were listed at or below that price point in May.

They also offer some thoughts on a new real estate transfer tax in Los Angeles, that was supposed to give the city an average of $56 million a month in its first year. However, in its first month, the Measure ULA tax took in $3.6 million. For transactions closing in April, the city received the revenue from five deals that were subject to the new tax.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why growth is often used as a metaphor of prosperity.
• Why a credit crunch has already begun in the commercial office real estate.
• Why Larry Summers thinks the Fed has made a huge mistake, and why that's wrong.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"The US will face a mild recession, but the risk of a 'hard landing' is currently low, Bank of America's chief economist says" (Business Insider)

"Jobless claims increase more than expected to their highest since October 2021" (CNBC)

"U.S. consumer-credit growth accelerates in April to fastest pace in five months" (MarketWatch)

"The shortage of houses is hitting some people and areas harder than others" (CNBC)

"The “mansion tax” was supposed to bring in $56M monthly. It took in $3.6M" (TheRealDeal)

"Larry Summers says that the Fed should consider doubling down on interest rates in July if it pauses in June because the risk of ‘overheating the economy’" (Fortune)

The Securities and Exchange Commission filed 13 charges against Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, and its founder, Changpeng Zhao, alleging both commingled billions of dollars worth of user funds and sent them to a European company controlled by Zhao. The U.S. regulator alleged on Monday that Zhao and his exchange worked to subvert ‘their own controls’ to allow high-net-worth U.S. investors and customers to continue trading on Binance's unregulated international exchange.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a story stating that Christian radio host Dave Ramsey is facing a $150 million lawsuit from 17 listeners who claim he played a role in defrauding them by promoting a timeshare exit company.

Chris and Saied look at a report from the Labor department indicating that payrolls in the public and private sector increased by 339,000 for the month, better than the 190,000 Dow Jones estimate and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth.

They also offer some thoughts on the latest Markets Live Pulse survey, which found that roughly one in two people who work in finance would change jobs — or already have — if their managers required them to spend more time in the office.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why air travel is the highest-ranking inflation item at 26%.
• Why realtors are bowing out of the real estate industry.
• The concept of timeshares and their benefits.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Christian radio host Dave Ramsey faces $150 million lawsuit from listeners who say they were defrauded by a timeshare exit company he promoted" (Yahoo! Finance)

"SEC sues Binance and CEO Changpeng Zhao for U.S. securities violations" (CNBC)

"Payrolls rose 339,000 in May, much better than expected in resilient labor market" (CNBC)

"Don’t Ask Us to Come to the Office More — Or We Will Quit, Investors Say" (Bloomberg)

"A $1.5 Trillion Backstop for Homebuyers Props Up Banks Instead" (Bloomberg)

"Why the U.S. Remains Far From Recession" (The Wall Street Journal)

Goldman Sachs is preparing for its third round of layoffs since September as Wall Street firms adjust to a slump in deals activity. The company is expected to trim fewer than 250 jobs in the coming weeks. Goldman Sachs, led by CEO David Solomon, was among the first major Wall Street firms to trim jobs in September, cutting a few hundred positions. It then slashed more jobs in January, releasing about 3,200 employees. Morgan Stanley announced about 3,000 job cuts this month, and JPMorgan Chase cut about 500 jobs. However, Goldman is more tied to the ups and downs of Wall Street than its rivals. Its combined 16% drop in first-quarter trading and advisory revenue contributed to a disappointing start to the year.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a report from Refinitiv's FedWatch, indicating that U.S. rate futures on Wednesday priced in a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve at next month's monetary policy meeting, a massive turnaround from indications of a 25 basis-point increase earlier in the session.

Chris and Saied look at a report from payroll processing firm ADP, showing that the U.S. labor market posted another month of surprising strength in May as companies added jobs at a pace well above expectations.

They also offer some thoughts on the tumble the stock market took on Wednesday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%, or 150 points, by 3:15 p.m. ET, while the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 0.5% apiece.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• The concept of market capitalization.
• Why inversion typically precedes a recessionary economy.
• Why the data is showing that employment is headed in the wrong direction.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Dow falls 130 points after FDIC reveals record plunge in bank deposits" (Forbes via Instagram) 

"US rate futures expect Fed pause in June in sharp turnaround from earlier" (Reuters)

"Goldman Sachs is cutting jobs again amid Wall Street deals slump" (CNBC)

"Job openings show surprise increase in April" (Yahoo! Finance)

"Private payrolls rose by 278,000 in May, well ahead of expectations, ADP says" (CNBC)

"Pending home sales unchanged in April, down 20% year-over-year" (CNBC)

"Market Capitalization: What It Is and Why It Matters" (NerdWallet)

U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in April, boosting the economy's growth prospects for the second quarter, and inflation picked up, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again next month. The growth picture was further brightened by other data from the Commerce Department on Friday showing a surprise rebound last month in orders of manufactured non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss the debate among Fed officials, centered on concerns over inflation not cooling fast enough and the labor market’s persistent strength. 

Chris and Saied look at the increase in real GDP, which reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and residential fixed investment.

They also offer some thoughts on a jump in consumer spending of 0.8% last month after gaining 0.1% in March. Economists had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, would rise 0.4%.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• The difference between Gross DOmestic Income (GDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

• Why the National Bureau of Economic Research has not declared a recession.

• Why the additional stress placed on all corporations and profitability will be very visible in July.

• And so much more...

"Gross Domestic Income GDI Suggests US Is In Recession Right Now" (Zero Hedge)

"Strong US consumer spending, inflation readings put Fed in tough spot" (Reuters)

"Fed officials debated need for rate hike at last meeting, minutes show" (CNN)

"A Housing Bust Comes for Thousands of Small-Time Investors" (The Wall Street Journal)

Deposit runs have led to the collapse of three U.S. banks this year, but another concern is building on the horizon. According to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, commercial real estate is the area most likely to cause problems for lenders. U.S. banks have experienced historically low loan defaults over the last few years due to low interest rates and the flood of stimulus money unleashed during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the Federal Reserve has hiked rates to fight inflation, which has changed the landscape. Commercial buildings in some markets, including tech-centric San Francisco, may take a hit as remote workers are reluctant to return to offices.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss an academic paper from economist Olivier Blanchard and former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, who guided the central bank and the U.S. economy through the Great Recession, in which they argue that central bankers still have work to do to bring down inflation.

Chris and Saied look at news that San Francisco has the largest sublease market of any U.S. metropolitan area, with 7.2% of its overall office inventory available for sublease, having doubled that figure since late 2019.

They also offer some thoughts on the rise of asset managers, private equity funds and insurers, as the regional banking crisis supercharges the expansion of these non-bank lenders into areas such as providing consumer car loans and mortgages, or financing the construction of buildings.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why the debt ceiling 'crisis' is a non-event.
• Private equity and how it differs from real estate syndicators.
• Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs): a new way to take companies public.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Here's how much emergency savings you need amid economic uncertainty, according to financial advisors" (CNBC via Instagram)

"Fed Chair Powell says rates may not have to rise as much as expected to curb inflation" (CNBC)

"Jamie Dimon warns souring commercial real estate loans could threaten some banks" (CNBC)

"Analysis: Private equity steps up lending as U.S. banks pull back" (Reuters)

"Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke says there’s more work ahead to control inflation" (CNBC)

"What's the right emergency fund amount?" (Vanguard)

"These Companies Are Trying To Shed Massive Amounts of San Francisco Office Space" (SF Standard)

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester has said that she does not think the U.S. central bank is at a point yet where it can hold interest rates steady for a period of time, given how stubborn inflation is. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signaled the central bank may pause further rate hikes as it assesses the impact of its past tightening, as well as the effect of recent bank sector stress on lending and credit.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss news that JPMorgan sees treasuries as the best hedge against a slowdown, and sees the possibility of 10-year rates falling below 2.5% in the event of a deep recession. The 10-year Treasury rate was trading around 3.53% on Wednesday, after rising as high as 4.09% earlier in the year.

Chris and Saied look at comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic, who said that, if he were voting on monetary policy today, he would vote to hold interest rates steady, but added there is still a lot of data to come before the Fed's meeting in June.

They also offer some thoughts on Elon Musk's assertions that he doesn’t care if his inflammatory tweets scare away potential Tesla buyers or Twitter advertisers.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why most people believe that a recession is inevitable at this point.
• Why, despite the fanfare in the media, we're not yet in a credit tightening cycle.
• The importance of looking at the actual data, not the intentions.
• Why Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic says he would not cut rates unless inflation fell farther than to mid to high 3%.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Default Fears Rattle Main Street Investors" (The Wall Street Journal)

"JPMorgan Asset Says Markets Are Right to Bet on US Rate Cuts" (Bloomberg)

"Home Prices Posted Largest Annual Drop in More Than 11 Years in April" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Fed's Mester says not yet at point where it can 'hold' rates" (Reuters)

"Fed's Bostic: if vote on policy were today, would vote to hold steady" (Reuters)

"Elon Musk: ‘I’ll say what I want, and if the consequence of that is losing money, so be it’" (CNBC)

According to a report from the Commerce Department, retail sales increased but fell short of expectations. The advanced sales report showed an increase of 0.4%, below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.8%. Excluding auto-related figures, sales increased 0.4%, which was in line with expectations. As the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, the headline increase equaled the 0.4% monthly rise in the consumer price index. On an annual basis, sales were up just 1.6%, well below the 4.9% CPI pace.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss news that stock in Home Depot tumbled more than 5%, or $13 a share, in premarket trading, which was worth about 100 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Once trading opened, the stock recovered some of its gains, and was recently down about 1.5%, still big enough to shave about 30 points off the Dow.

Chris and Saied look at a Census Bureau survey, showing that more Americans struggle to meet expenses now than in the immediate aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, when millions lost their means of employment. About 38.5% of American adults — or 89.1 million people — faced difficulty in paying for usual home expenses between April 26 and May 8. That’s up from 34.4% a year ago and 26.7% during the same period in 2021.

They also offer some thoughts on the passing of Chicago real estate magnate Sam Zell, who earned a multibillion-dollar fortune and a reputation as “the grave dancer” for his ability to revive moribund properties.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why retail sales rose 0.4% in April, and why this is indicative of bad things to come.
• The concept of a real estate trust.
• A University of Michigan report showing that consumer sentiment is at an all-time low.
• Why Home Depot is warning of annual sales drop for the first time since 2009.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Home Depot just forecast weak consumer demand — here’s what that could mean for the rest of the economy" (CNBC)

"Almost 90 million American adults struggle to make ends meet, Census says" (Bloomberg Business)

"Retail sales rose 0.4% in April, less than expected as consumers struggle with inflation" (CNBC)

"Americans Curb Spending on Home Improvements" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Home Improvement Goes on Hiatus" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Experts Predict Home Improvement Spending to Decline by 2024" (M Report)

Total consumer debt hit a fresh new high in the first quarter of 2023, pushing past $17 trillion even amid a sharp pullback in home borrowing. According to a report from the New York Federal Reserve, the total for borrowing across all categories hit $17.05 trillion, an increase of nearly $150 billion, or 0.9% during the January-to-March period. That took total indebtedness up about $2.9 trillion from the pre-Covid period ending in 2019.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss news that famed short-seller Michael Burry and his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, snapped up 150,000 shares of First Republic prior to its purchase by JP Morgan, worth about $2 million at the end of the first quarter.

Chris and Saied look at A Gallup poll indicating that 36% of US adults say they have a “great deal” or a “fair amount” of confidence that the Federal Reserve chairman would do or recommend the right thing for the economy, a precipitous drop which is now at or below his predecessors’ as the central bank wages its war against inflation.⁣

They also offer some thoughts on recently-released Federal Reserve data, showing that deposits at U.S. banks climbed to $17.16 trillion in the week ended May 3, up about $67 billion, ticking up from the lowest level in nearly two years while bank lending was little changed at a record level.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why inflaton in Argentina has sped up to 109% as currency weakens before the election.
• The three steps to a Federal Reserve pivot.
• Why Warren Buffett and Michael Burry are doubling down in the banking sector.
• Why the FOMC needs to see inflation going down on a fast enough trend.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"With $1B in back rent due, LA landlords struggle to survive" (The RealDeal via Instagram)

"Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time" (CNBC via Instagram)

"Michael Burry loaded up on bank stocks during the banking crisis" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"Paul Tudor Jones says the Fed is done raising rates, stocks to finish the year higher" (CNBC via Instagram)

"Confidence in Jerome Powell has plunged to a record low" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"What happens when the prophecy of the blockchain fails?" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"U.S. bank deposits rise in early May, lending little changed at record high" (Reuters)

"US real estate investors are losing money on roughly 1 in 7 homes they sell — among the worst since 2016. And they're most likely to take a hit...

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits have jumped to a 1-1/2-year high, pointing to cracks in the labor market as demand slows, potentially giving the Federal Reserve room to halt further interest rate increases next month. With demand cooling, inflation pressures are subsiding. Data from the Labor Department indicates that producer prices rebounded modestly in April, leading to the smallest annual increase in wholesale inflation in more than two years.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a Labor Department report showing that the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of a broad swath of goods and services, increased 0.4% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones estimate.

Chris and Saied look at comments from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon that markets will be gripped by panic as the U.S. approaches a possible default on its sovereign debt, calling the default "potentially catastrophic" for the country.

They also offer some thoughts on a statement by New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, who cautioned that interest rate increases will take a while to work their way through the economy before inflation returns to an acceptable level.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why services inflation is really consumer discretionary spending more than anything else.
• Why housing prices are excluded from the Labor Department’s CPI report.
• The odds of a Fed rate cut this year.
• Why the Fed's 'stress tests' for banks failed.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Jamie Dimon warns panic will overtake markets as US approaches debt default" (CNBC via Instagram)

"The family behind First Citizen's Bank is $1 billion richwer since SVB" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"AirBnB stock craters - founders lose $4 billion in one day" (Forbes via Instagram)

"Inflation rate eases to 4.9% in April, less than expectations" (CNBC)

"Wholesale prices rose just 0.2% in April, less than estimate as inflation pressures ease" (CNBC)

"Fed’s John Williams says rates could be increased if inflation doesn’t come down" (CNBC)

"Worries linger about financial stability following bank rescue, Fed report shows" (CNBC)

"US weekly jobless claims hit 1-1/2-year high; inflation subsiding" (Reuters)

The stock market’s recent nose dive has everyone buzzing, and The Higher Standard crew is here to break it all down. Chris, Saied, and Haroon dig into the fleeting positivity of the 2Y/10Y spread—did it really mean anything, or was it just a tease? Meanwhile, Dave Ramsey’s relentless “buy, buy, buy” mantra gets a skeptical side-eye as the hosts question whether it’s time to pump the brakes instead of the gas.

➡️ As if things weren’t shaky enough, U.S. credit card debt hits a staggering $1.14 trillion, and job growth falls way short of expectations. With unemployment creeping up to 4.3%, the guys explore whether we’re headed for a full-blown recession or just a rough patch. Buckle up—this episode is a wild ride through the latest financial turbulence.

💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?

🏆 Sponsored By Transcend Company:

TRANSCEND your goals! With a telehealth physician directed personalized treatment plan you can get a PERSONALIZED PLAN for Peptide Therapy, Hormone Replacement Therapy, Cognitive Function, Sleep & Fatigue, Athletic Performance and MORE. Their online process and medical experts make it simple to find out what’s right for you.

✔️ Click the link and start today: http://www.transcendcompany.com/THSP

👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com

🔗 Resources:

Caution, Recession Ahead? (Investopedia)

Credit card debt hits record $1.14T (Chart Of The Day)

Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3% (CNBC)

⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

The Pandemic Housing Boom saw a flood of institutional homebuying. Low interest rates, easy access to capital, soaring rents, and skyrocketing home values were just too good a deal for Wall Street types like Blackstone and iBuyer players like Opendoor Technologies to pass on. However, it seems that institutional homebuyers are pulling back. According to an analysis conducted by John Burns Research and Consulting, institutional investors — those owning over 1,000 homes — bought 90% fewer homes in January and February than they did in the first two months of 2022. Invitation Homes, the largest owner of U.S. single-family rental homes recently became a net seller. In the first quarter of 2023, Invitation Homes bought 194 homes while it sold off 297.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss the reasons that banks are going to choose to be strategic in the deployment of capital, partially because they want to keep as much of their balance sheets as possible, in case of a run on deposits, and partially because any loan they make today is going to be underwater if the Federal Reserve continues to increase rates.

Chris and Saied look at news that shares of San Francisco-based PacWest Bancorp plunged after investors learned the regional bank was considering a sale. Despite thet fact that the bank has said it had not experienced a high number of customer withdrawals, the news still stoked fears of a potential surge in withdrawals among regional banks.

They also offer some thoughts on the results of a survey from the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), a lobbying organization that represents small business owners nationwide, which shows that small business earnings rose to the highest levels in at least 45 years last month.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why the market is not concerned with interest rate increases.
• Why the US dollar needs to be the world's currency.
• Why the debt ceiling is going to have to be raised well before June 1.
• Why, in 2011, the debt ceiling crisis led to an S&P downgrade of US sovereign debt.
• And so much more...

Resources:

Wall Street is running away from the housing market. But why?

Powell’s Bet Against Recession Looks Good — Minus the Credit Crunch and a DC Standoff

Fed report shows banks worried about conditions ahead, with focus on slowing economy and deposit outflows

Outlook for household spending slumped in April, New York Fed survey shows

Corporate Stock Buybacks Help Keep Market Afloat

What are the advantages of being the Nation that has the Reserve Currency

Employment openings pulled back further in March, hitting a nearly two-year low in a sign that the ultra-tight U.S. job market is loosening and possibly putting less pressure on inflation, according to a report by the Labor Department. The department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that job vacancies totaled 9.59 million for the month, down from 9.97 million in February and below the FactSet estimate for 9.64 million. At the same time, layoffs and discharges jumped by 248,000 to just over 1.8 million, taking the rate as a share of the workforce up to 1.2% from 1%.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a report from payroll processing firm ADP that states that private payrolls rose by 296,000 for April, above the downwardly revised 142,000 the previous month and well ahead of the estimate for 133,000.

Chris and Saied look at Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent press conference, in which he said that, "The run on Silicon Valley Bank was out of keeping with the speed of runs through history. And that now needs to be reflected in some way in regulation and in supervision.”

They also offer some thoughts on the recent increase in the Fed's target range for its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, while leaving its options open on future rate hikes.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why the entire regional bank sector is taking a significant pounding.
• Why the market doesn't believe a lot of what Fed Chair Jerome Powell is saying.
• The reason why so many knowledgeable people on the news and in social media seem to have no idea how banking works.
• The role of digital banking, providing depositors with quick access to their funds that they can move immediately.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Dow tumbles more than 300 points as banking sector worries reignite before Fed rate decision" (CNBC)

"Job openings fell more than expected in March to lowest level in nearly two years" (CNBC)

"Private payrolls surged by 296,000 in April, much higher than expected, ADP says" (CNBC)

"Fed recap: Here are Chair Powell’s market-moving comments after the latest rate hike" (CNBC)

"Federal Reserve pushes interest rates above 5% for first time since 2007" (Yahoo! Finance)

"Exclusive: US officials assessing possible 'manipulation' on banking shares" (Reuters)

"Apple reportedly attracted $1 billion in deposits into its new high-yield savings account in just 4 days" (BusinessInsider)

Regulators have seized First Republic Bank and sold its assets to JPMorgan Chase & Co in a deal to resolve the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis and draw a line under a lingering banking turmoil. First Republic was among regional U.S. lenders most battered by a crisis in confidence in the banking sector in March, when depositors fled en masse from smaller banks to giants like JPMorgan as they panicked over the collapse of two other mid-sized U.S. banks.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss comments from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who said that the crisis that led to the downfall of three regional U.S. banks in recent weeks is largely over after the resolution of First Republic.

Chris and Saied look at a warning from billionaire investor Charlie Munger, vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, who sees trouble ahead for the U.S. financial system because American banks are "full of... bad loans" due to falling property prices in the country in a situation that seems very similar to what caused the banking crisis in 2008.

They also offer some thoughts on recently-released economic data showing that inflation rose again in March, despite a year’s worth of interest rate increases. This is data that the Federal Reserve watches very closely.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why you can’t compare the large global banks to regional community banks.
• Why the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will share losses with JP Morgan on First Republic loans.
• What other banks are doing to prepare for a possible rate hike.
• Why banks are not doing loans right now.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Australia’s central bank hikes rates by 25 basis points; Asia-Pacific markets mixed" (CNBC)

"Jamie Dimon says ‘this part of the crisis is over’ after JPMorgan Chase buys First Republic" (CNBC)

"Key inflation gauge for the Fed rose 0.3% in March as expected" (CNBC)

"Charlie Munger says the U.S. commercial property market is in trouble: FT report" (CNBC)

"Big banks including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America asked for final bids on First Republic" (CNBC)

"The U.S. could hit the debt ceiling by June 1, much sooner than expected, Yellen warns" (CNBC)

"Charlie Munger Sounds The Alarm on Issue That Could Bring Down the U.S. Economy" (TheStreet)

Growth in the U.S. slowed considerably during the first three months of the year as interest rate increases and inflation took hold of an economy largely expected to decelerate even further ahead. According to the Commerce Department, gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 1.1% annualized pace in the first quarter. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting growth of 2%.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a report stating that U.S. home prices, as measured by the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, rose 0.15% between January and February. This month-over-month national home price uptick comes after national prices had declined every month between June 2022 and January 2023.

Chris and Saied look at news showing the continued decline of First Republic Bank's stock, an ongoing rout that has erased 60% of its value just this week on concerns about the bank's financial health in the wake of two other bank collapses.

They also offer some thoughts on the apparent end of the severe contraction in the US housing market over the past year, a bottoming-out which is raising hopes on Wall Street that America could avoid a recession altogether.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• The definition of gross domestic product (GDP).
• Why businesses have been drawing down inventory and cutting equipment purchases.
• Why home values don’t just drop across the country at the same time.
• Why historically, housing has been a critical driver of the broader business cycle.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"GDP Report Shows Economic Growth Slowed in First Quarter" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Bankers’ pitch to save First Republic: Help us now, or pay more later when it fails" (CNBC)

"Housing market correction is running on fumes as Case-Shiller reports the first U.S. home price uptick since June—these 2 charts tell the story" (Fortune)

"The housing market's bottoming-out raises hopes that the US can avoid a recession" (Bloomberg Business)

"First Republic Bank Is a Problem With No Easy Solution" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Google Ad Revenue Drops for Second Straight Quarter" (The Wall Street Journal)

Many critics have blasted new rules from the Biden administration that will force good-credit homebuyers to subsidize the costs of buyers with poor credit. One former Obama housing official is calling out the "unprecedented" move, arguing this is "not the way" to bring in more home buyers. New rules from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) will allow consumers with lower credit ratings and less money for a down payment to qualify for better mortgage rates than they otherwise would have. In turn, the costs are expected to be passed on the those with good credit. The rules are set to go into effect May 1.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss comments from tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya, who said two years ago that bitcoin had replaced gold and predicted the digital currency would climb to $200,000, who is now saying that "Crypto is dead in America," blaming its demise largely on regulators, who have gotten much more aggressive in their pursuit of bad actors in the industry.

Chris and Saied look at reports that Bed Bath and Beyond has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after it failed in several last-ditch efforts to raise enough money to keep the company alive. It had been warning of a potential bankruptcy since early January, when it issued a “going concern” notice that it may not have the cash to cover expenses after a dismal holiday season.

They also offer some thoughts on real estate magnate Sam Zell's assertion that "Remote work is a bunch of bullshit," speaking at a luncheon at NYU’s Schack Institute of Real Estate as part of its annual REIT Symposium.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• What is Moody's and why do its ratings matter?
• Why working from home is here to stay, but it's not for everyone.
• Why Google CEO’s compensation package includes $6 million for personal security.
• Why Coinbase's CEO Brian Armstrong says his company is preparing for a years-long court battle with the commission.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Former Obama housing chief slams Biden’s ‘unprecedented’ mortgage plan: ‘Not the way to do it’" (Fox Business)

"Frank's Charlie Javice moved millions from JPMorgan to Signature months before the bank collapsed" (Bloomberg Business)

"More US consumers are falling behind on payments" (Yahoo! Finance)

"Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet lead earnings rush: What to know this week" (Yahoo! Finance)

"‘Crypto is dead in America,’ says longtime bitcoin bull Chamath Palihapitiya" (CNBC)

"Meta has started its latest round of layoffs, focusing on technical employees" (CNBC)

The US economy stalled in recent weeks, with hiring and inflation slowing and access to credit narrowing, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts. "Overall economic activity was little changed in recent weeks," the Fed said in the report, published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. "Several districts noted that banks tightened lending standards amid increased uncertainty and concerns about liquidity. Overall price levels rose moderately during this reporting period, though the rate of price increases appeared to be slowing."

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a recent survey from LendingTree Inc., indicating that US consumers are increasingly using installment loans to pay for everyday items like groceries, highlighting the financial pain wrought by the worst inflation outbreak in four decades.

Chris and Saied look at Meta’s latest round of job cuts, as employees with technical backgrounds like user experience, software engineering, graphics programming are being let go.

They also offer some thoughts on earnings season, demystifying some of the terminology and concepts that get tossed about so that you can better understand what earnings reports mean for you and the economy.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• How credit is being impacted by the stalling US economy.
• The Federal Reserve's Beige Book: What it is and why it matters.
• The rise of 'buy now, pay later' services, and the negative impact they're having on consumers.
• The continued rash of layoffs in the tech sector - and soon, the banking sector as well.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"US Economy Stalls as Credit Narrows, Fed’s Beige Book Says" (Bloomberg)

"Americans Go Deeper Into Debt as They Use Buy Now, Pay Later Apps for Groceries" (Bloomberg)

"More US consumers are falling behind on payments" (Yahoo! Finance)

"Meta has started its latest round of layoffs, focusing on technical employees" (CNBC)

According to data from Redfin, the median U.S. asking rent fell 0.4% year over year to $1,937 in March. That’s the first U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said that banks are likely to become more cautious and may tighten lending further in the wake of recent bank failures, possibly negating the need for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. In a recent interview, Yellen said that policy actions to stem the systemic threat caused by last month's failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank had caused deposit outflows to stabilize, "and things have been calm."

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss the launch of Apple's 'Apple Card' savings account, with a 4.15% annual percentage yield. It requires no minimum deposit or balance, Apple said, and users can set up an account from the Wallet app on their iPhones.

Chris and Saied look at a report from investment research firm Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), indicating that investors have grown voracious for apartment-building acquisitions in 2021 and 2022, having purchased $355.5 billion and $299.2 billion worth of apartment buildings, unprecedented sums that far surpassed the previous $194 billion record of multifamily sales in 2019.

They also offer some thoughts on news that the National Association of Home Builders / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index climbed to 45 in April, a 1-point gain, the highest since September. The index stood at 77 in April 2022.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why the Fed believes that unemployment is an inflationary trend.
• Why Chris believes inflation may be moderating.
• The degree of liability on the line for banking executives in the wake of the current crisis.
• Why difficulty getting loans and a lack of inventory has created a stalemate in the housing market.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Yellen says US banks may tighten lending and negate need for more rate hikes" (Reuters)

"Fed should let the economy equilibrate, says former Fed nominee Judy Shelton" (CNBC)

"Warren Buffett Doesn't Hold Back When Asked About Failed Bank Execs" (TheStreet)

"Credit-card balances have hit historic highs. Here’s why that’s a worrying sign." (Market Watch)

"NO ATMs, no fees, and a 103-year old vault: Inside America's Smallest Bank" (Businessweek via Instagram)

"Apple launches its savings account with 4.15% interest rate" (CNBC)

"Rental Market Tracker: U.S. Rents Post First Annual Decline in Three Years" (Redfin)

Released Federal Reserve documents seem to indicate that fallout from the U.S. banking crisis is likely to tilt the economy into recession later this year. Minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) included a presentation from staff members on potential repercussions from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other tumult in the financial sector that began in early March.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a report from the Labor Department indicating that US producer prices unexpectedly fell in March as the cost of gasoline declined, along with signs that underlying producer inflation was subsiding.

Chris and Saied look at analyst's estimates, suggesting that deposits at JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America will tumble $521 billion from a year earlier, the biggest drop in a decade.

They also offer some thoughts on criminal fraud charges brought by the Department of Justice against Charlie Javice, founder and former CEO of Frank, a startup college financial planning company for students, in which they allege that she "engaged in a brazen scheme" when she sold her company to JPMorgan Chase in 2021.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• The statistics that can be found behind the CPI report.
• The two main problems with the shelter component of the CPI report.
• Why the Fed expects a banking crisis to cause a recession this year.
• The ins and outs of the Charlie Javice fraud case.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"US consumer prices rise moderately; underlying inflation too hot" (Reuters)

"US labor market gradually losing steam; producer inflation cooling" (Reuters)

"U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fall in March" (Reuters)

"Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show" (CNBC)

"Top US banks to reveal $521 billion deposit drop, the most in a decade” (Bloomberg Business)

"Deposit Crisis Sets Up a Tough First Quarter for All but the Biggest Banks" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Charlie Javice, the founder accused of fraud by JPMorgan, is arrested as DOJ files criminal charges" (Fortune)

"The Fed’s efforts to fight housing inflation by hiking interest rates has backfired, Cramer says" (CNBC)

According to the Labor Department, payrolls grew by 236,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate for 238,000 and below the upwardly revised 326,000 in February. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5%, against expectations that it would hold at 3.6%, with the decrease coming as labor force participation increased to its highest level since before the Covid pandemic.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss Nouriel Roubini's continued calls for disaster, stating that neither the US central bank nor the federal government will have the maneuvering room needed to sufficiently stimulate the economy.

Chris and Saied look at a survey by recruiter Robert Walters of 3,000 white collar workers who moved jobs during the pandemic, found that 71% wanted to return to their pre-pandemic employer.

They also offer some thoughts on a report from Walmart indicating that it expects about 65% of its stores to be serviced by automation by the end of its fiscal year 2026, just days after revealing plans to lay off more than 2,000 people at facilities that fulfill online orders.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why job growth in March is not ideal when the Fed is taken into account.
• Why a strong jobs report hurts the services inflation, something that has not come down since the last CPI report.
• Why the Saudis and OPEC are moving away from the US dollar.
• Insight on community banks and their loan loss provisions.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Bosses are training employees to be influencers - after long discouraging social media posts about work" (Forbes via Instagram)

"Who is Nouriel Roubini, Wall Street's 'Dr. Doom' economist who has warned of catastrophe for 2 decades?" (Markets Insider)

"Morgan Stanley analysts are forecasting something ‘worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’ for commercial real estate" (Yahoo! Finance)

"Bank Failures. High Inflation. Rising Rates. Is the Resilient Jobs Market About to Crack?" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Private payrolls rose by 145,000 in March, well below expectations, ADP says" (CNBC)

"Job growth totals 236,000 in March, near expectations as hiring pace slows" (CNBC)

"Bosses Want Hard Workers — So They’re Hiring Older People" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Great Resignation becomes Great Regret as workers long for their pre-Covid jobs" (Yahoo! Finance)

One of the world’s most well-known economists believes the banking crisis is far from over, and that U.S. authorities are merely buying themselves some time by insisting the banking system is “sound.” Nouriel Roubini, chief executive of consulting firm Roubini Macro Associates, argued on Friday that the financial system will be unable to cope with the sheer scale of private and public debt that has already been amassed, spawning a “trilemma” that will soon trigger another phase of panic.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss the news that an inflation gauge that the Federal Reserve follows closely rose slightly less than anticipated in February, providing some hope that interest rate hikes are helping ease price increases.

Chris and Saied look at comments from asset management giant BlackRock stating that investors are too confident the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year and could pay the price later.

They also offer some thoughts on Jim Cramer's assertion that he’s still searching for the first sign of a recession, even though it’s all anyone seems to be talking about.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why Moody’s expects home prices to decline about 4% both in 2023 and in 2024.
• The impact of the Federal Reserve’s rate increases on banks.
• Why the Fed is on track to lose 100 billion by the end of the year.
• Why markets are betting that the Fed will start cutting rates by July.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Key Fed inflation gauge rose 0.3% in February, less than expected" (article from CNBC)

"Home prices suddenly jump after several months of declines" (article from CNBC)

"Bank Stress, Softer Inflation Just Made Fed’s Life Easier" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"BlackRock warns that investors are making a mistake by betting on the Fed to cut rates" (article from CNBC)

"‘Dr. Doom’ Nouriel Roubini warns economic ‘trilemma’ is making a financial crash inevitable" (article from Fortune)

"A recession may be coming, but Jim Cramer says he’s not seeing the early signs yet" (article from CNBC)

Getting rich can happen a lot of different ways, but very few instances are quick or by chance. Most people build wealth over time by following the principles that Chris, Saied and Haroon lay out for you at the top of episode 241 of The Higher Standard podcast.

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🔗 Resources:

Job openings dip slightly in June amid signs of 'turbulence' in labor market (Yahoo! Finance)

The Fed needs to cut rates. Now. (Bloomberg Opinion)

Trump turns up heat on Fed ahead of expected rate cuts: 'It's something that they know they shouldn’t be doing.' (Yahoo! Finance)

The US national debt just surpassed another milestone: $35 trillion (Yahoo! Finance)

GDP: US economy grows at faster-than-expected pace in second quarter as inflation eases (Yahoo! Finance)

⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

$47 billion. That's the amount of market capitalization Charles Schwab has had wiped out in just one month. The stock fell 33% between Feb. 28 and March 31. At the end of February, Charles Schwab's shares were trading at around $77.92. A month later, the price fell to $52.38. This is Charles Schwab's worst month since the October 1987 stock market crash, known as Black Monday. That day, the Dow Jones index lost 508 points, a decline of 22.6% and the largest daily decline in a stock market index at the time. Only the drop by 76% of the Icelandic stock market in 2008 would exceed this record.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss Federal Reserve data, showing that depositors have removed another $126 billion from U.S. banks during the week ending March 22. The biggest 25 banks lost $90 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis. Smaller banks, which suffered massive withdrawals the previous week as regulators seized regional lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, were able to stabilize their outflows.

Chris and Saied look at a story from Forbes, indicating that more than 136,000 people lost their jobs in major layoffs at U.S. companies over the fiscal quarter ending this week, more than the prior two quarters combined, as tech and manufacturing layoffs, led by Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft, surged.

They also offer some thoughts on new housing market data, showing that existing home sales dropped in 12 of the last 13 months and existing home prices peaked last June. The surge of home prices during the height of the pandemic and the jump in mortgage rates since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates last March dampened home demand.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why cash remains king in this economy.
• How consumers can guage buy or sell opportunities.
• Why McDonald’s is closing its U.S. corporate offices as it lays off hundreds of workers.
• Why there's been mostly silence from the National Bureau of Economic Research.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Depositors yank another $126 billion from US banks" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

"Charles Schwab Loses $47 Billion in Market Value in One Month" (article from TheStreet)

"136,000 laid off in major US job cuts this quarter - more than prior two quarters combined” (Forbes via Instagram)

"McDonald's temporarily shuts US offices, prepares layoff notices, Wall Street Journal reports" (article from Reuters)

"US Housing Market in Trouble: Moody's Predicts Home Prices Will Fall in 2023 and 2024" (article from TheStreet)

"Instagram sold 44,000,000 blue checks in one day at $15 a check" (DJ Key via Instagram)

As the US banking crisis drags on, investors are starting to unearth risks within Charles Schwab that have been hiding in plain sight. Unrealized losses on the firm’s balance sheet, loaded with long-dated bonds, ballooned to more than $29 billion last year. At the same time, higher interest rates are encouraging customers to move their cash out of certain accounts that underpin Schwab’s business and bolster its bottom line.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss news that Credit Suisse, the collapsed Swiss bank taken over by UBS Group in a hastily arranged bailout, has provided a safe haven for wealthy American clients to hide assets from the IRS — even after it was caught and prosecuted for doing the same thing more than a decade ago, according two former Credit Suisse bankers who are working with the U.S. government as whistleblowers.

Chris and Saied look at a report from the Labour Department, indicating that jobless claims for the week ended March 25 totaled 198,000, up 7,000 from the previous period and a bit higher than the 195,000 estimate.

They also offer some thoughts on the recent news that Binance Holdings, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, are being sued by a US regulator for allegedly breaking trading and derivatives rules. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Binance shirked its obligations by not properly registering with it.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Where Silicon Valley Bank falls in line with the other banks across the country.
• How a company’s market capitalization is estimated.
• Why pending home sales were up 0.8% month over month in February.
• The concept of a mansion tax.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"First Citizens shares soar 50% after the bank buys a large chunk of failed Silicon Valley Bank" (article from CNBC)

"Where Financial Risk Lies, in 12 Charts" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"Charles Schwab's $7 trillion empire built on low rates is showing cracks" (Bloomberg Businessweek via Instagram)

"Minneapolis Fed chair Neel Kashkari says "fundamentally, the banking system is sound"" (CBS News)

Debt on Blackstone buildings 47% more than portfolio's worth" (The RealDeal via Instagram)

"Apple plans to launch Apple Pay later - allowing users to split purchases into four payments with no additional fees” (Complex via Instagram)

Nick Gerli via Twitter

“Jobless claims edge up to 198,000, higher than expected”...

As a series of U.S. lenders were besieged by customers yanking out their money this month, banking giants such as JPMorgan Chase & Co, Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. warned employees: Do not make it worse. JPMorgan, the nation's largest bank, told all employees they "should never give the appearance of exploiting a situation of stress or uncertainty," in a March 13 memo. "We do not make disparaging comments regarding competitors."

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss data showing that customers have recently pulled nearly $100 billion in deposits, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and more than a dozen other officials convened a special closed meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.

Chris and Saied look at news that Deutsche Bank’s stock plunged Friday as the market hones in on the German firm as the next major bank at risk in the wake of long-time rival Credit Suisse’s collapse and similar events stateside. Frankfurt-listed shares of Deutsche Bank dropped 7.5%, now down more than 25% since March 8, when confidence in the international banking system began to crumble.

They also offer some thoughts on data from Trepp, an analytics provider for the Structured Finance, CRE, and Banking markets, indicating that this year, roughly $270 billion in commercial mortgages held by banks are set to expire. This means that big owners of property face the prospect that beleaguered banks, especially smaller ones, could get more aggressive with lending arrangements, giving landlords even less room to breathe as they try to refinance a mountain of loans coming due.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Paul Volcker’s monetary policy career and Ben Bernanke’s role in AIG bailout.
• Jerome Powell's role in the current banking crisis.
• The two different types of lender in the commercial real estate space.
• Why JP Morgan and Bank of America have been telling staff not to poach clients from stressed competitors.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Volcker Slayed Inflation. Bernanke Saved the Banks. Can Powell Do Both?" (article from Bloomberg)

"Exclusive: JPMorgan, Citi, BofA tell staff not to poach clients from stressed banks" (article from Reuters)

"Nearly $100 billion in deposits pulled from banks; officials call system ‘sound and resilient’" (article from CNBC)

Custodia Bank via Twitter

"Veteran of FDIC Takeover Tells What It’s Like to Run a Failed Bank" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"What’s Going On at Deutsche Bank?" (article from The...

Recession chatter has returned on Wall Street as markets deal with the blow of several bank failures and the potential economic aftermath. The likelihood of a U.S. recession is back on the rise for the first time since November 2022, according to the latest Bank of America fund manager survey released on Tuesday. About 42% of fund managers surveyed see a recession happening within the next 12 months, up from 24% in February. While fund managers aren't in universal agreement on a recession, they are almost in unison on the economy being stagnant over the next 12 months.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss data released by the Census Bureau, stating that housing starts, a measure of new home construction, rose by 9.8% in February from January, though that’s still down 18.4% from a year ago. Starts in January rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.450 million, up from the revised January estimate of 1.321 million.

Chris and Saied look at news that the Securities and Exchange Commission has unveiled fraud and unregistered securities charges against crypto founder and Grenadian diplomat Justin Sun, alongside separate violations against the celebrity backers of his Tronix and BitTorrent crypto assets, which included Jake Paul, Lindsay Lohan and Soulja Boy.

They also offer some thoughts on a review by Bloomberg News indicating that, in terms of layoffs, 2023 had the the worst start to a year since 2009, with nearly 52,000 jobs lost in one week in January alone. Since Oct. 1, executives across sectors have sacked almost half a million employees around the world.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why small regional banks really help small to midsize businesses.
• The importance of understanding that the FOMC’s economic projections are not linear.
• The difference between the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Agency.
• The importance of getting permits before you apply for a construction loan.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Yellen: U.S. Could Intervene Again to Protect Banking System" (video from The Wall Street Journal)

"Home Prices Fell in February for First Time in 11 Years" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"Global layoffs stretch far beyond big tech" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"‘Already past the point of no return’: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession as economic ‘engines are about to turn off’" (article from Fortune)

"Gen Z is racking up credit card debt faster than any other generation" (Businessweek via Instagram)

"BofA: 'Recession fears are up in March'" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

Banking giant UBS is in discussions to take over all or parts of Credit Suisse, with the boards of Switzerland's two biggest lenders set to meet separately over the weekend. The Swiss National Bank and regulator FINMA are organising the talks in an attempt to build confidence in the country's banking sector. On Friday evening, Swiss regulators informed their counterparts in the United States and United Kingdom that the merger of the two banks was their "Plan A" to salvage the confidence in Credit Suisse. Several other options are also under discussion between the two banks as both sides try to evaluate regulatory constraints in different jurisdictions.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss an 85-year long study by Harvard researchers indicating that, while particular roles can’t be reliably correlated with dissatisfaction and burnout, certain job characteristics can be. Jobs that require little human interaction and don’t offer opportunities to build meaningful relationships with co-workers tend to have the most miserable employees, the study found.

Chris and Saied look at news that Bitcoin has climbed to a nine-month high as turmoil in the banking sector drives some investors to turn to digital assets. It rose as far as $28,567, its highest since mid-June, and was last up 0.9%, amid growing expectations that central banks would slow the pace of interest rate hikes.

They also offer some thoughts on contingent convertible bonds, or CoCos, often described as high-yield investments with a hand grenade attached. The UBS takeover of Credit Suisse has pulled the pin on $17 billion of them.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• What’s happened at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday.
• Why Switzerland is known for having low levels of financial risk and high levels of privacy.
• Why the axing of Credit Suisse’s $17 billion contingent convertible (CoCo) debt has big implications for the newly combined bank and the wider market.
• Bitcoin's climb to a nine-month high as turmoil in the banking sector sparks a rally.
• And so much more...

Resources:

Markets and Mayhem via Twitter

"UBS in talks to acquire Credit Suisse" (article from The Financial Times)

Ulrich Körner via Wikipedia

"UBS buys Credit Suisse for $3.2 billion as regulators look to shore up the global banking system" (article from CNBC)

"UBS Agrees to Buy Credit Suisse for More Than $3 Billion" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"Big Banks Best Positioned to Weather Crisis: Morningstar" (article from The Street)

"Credit Suisse's $17...

In a morning where more banking turmoil emerged and stocks opened sharply lower on Wall Street, traders shifted pricing to indicate that the Fed may hold the line when it meets March 21-22. According to CME Group data, the probability for no rate hike shot up to as high as 65%. Trading was volatile, though, and the latest moves suggested nearly a 50-50 split between no rate hike and a 0.25 percentage point move. Chairman Jerome Powell and his fellow policymakers will resolve the question over raising rates by watching macroeconomic reports that continue to flow in, as well as data from regional banks and their share prices that could provide larger clues about the health of the financial sector.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss the Census Bureau's most recent Household Pulse survey, which indicates that about 36% of consumers say it has been "somewhat" to "very difficult" for them to pay their usual bills in the last seven days.

Chris and Saied look at data from the Labor Department, revealing that inflation rose in February but was in line with expectations, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on track for another interest rate hike next week despite recent banking industry turmoil. The consumer price index increased 0.4% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 6%.

They also offer some thoughts on news that Credit Suisse Group AG is borrowing up to 50 billion Swiss francs, equivalent to $53.7 billion, from the Swiss central bank to shore up its liquidity, capping a day in which fears about the health of global banks leapfrogged to Europe from North America and the giant lender’s shares dropped as much as 24%.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why the CPI will likely continue to come down.
• The real cause of the recent bank failures.
• Why Bank of America received more than $15 billion in deposits after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.
• The levels of regulatory scrutiny banks are required to have as they grow.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Bank stocks rebound, but crisis makes the Fed’s next move harder" (article from The Washington Post)

"Where inflation is... and isn't" (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

"BofA Gets More Than $15 Billion in Deposits After SVB Fails" (article from Bloomberg)

"What’s going on with Silicon Valley Bank?" (Dave Ramsey via Instagram)

"Goldman Sachs no longer expects the Fed to hike rates in March, cites stress on banking system" (article from CNBC)

"Stablecoin USDC breaks dollar peg after firm reveals it has $3.3 billion in SVB exposure" (article from CNBC)

As we already know, Silicon Valley Bank, one of tech’s favorite lenders, has collapsed, becoming the second-largest bank failure in US history. The bank’s blowup has sent shockwaves across the tech sector, Wall Street, and Washington, amid concerns that other banks could be in trouble or that contagion could set in. In the days after SVB’s collapse, the panic appeared to spread, leading to the failure of additional banks, including Signature Bank of New York, which had bet on crypto. But it’s not clear how serious the fallout will be.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss news that Goldman Sachs no longer believes that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate hike at its meeting next week, citing “recent stress” in the financial sector.

Chris and Saied look at comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicating that a major government bailout of Silicon Valley Bank is not an option.

They also offer some thoughts on the departure of Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker from the board of directors at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• What actually happened at Silicon Valley Bank and which sector has been hurt most by its collapse.
• Why 14 years of artificial interest rate deflation and unprecedented interest rate increases were guaranteed to create problems.
• The bizarre phenomenon of new jobs being implemented on a monthly basis while layoffs continue to happen.
• How Silicon Valley Bank made the Forbes list of America’s Best Banks for the fifth consecutive year.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"What’s Going on With Silicon Valley Bank?" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"US Discusses Fund to Backstop Deposits If More Banks Fail" (article from Bloomberg)

"Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says U.S. government won’t bail out Silicon Valley Bank" (article from CNBC)

"Strong jobs report shows 311,000 jobs added in February" (article from CBS News)

"Fed Rate Pivot Is Back in Play" (article from Bloomberg)

"Goldman Sachs no longer expects the Fed to hike rates in March, cites stress on banking system" (article from CNBC)

"CEO of failed Silicon Valley Bank no longer a director at San Francisco Fed" (article from Reuters)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has cautioned that interest rates are likely to rise higher than central bank policymakers had expected. Citing data showing that inflation has reversed the deceleration it showed in late 2022, Powell warned of tighter monetary policy ahead to slow a growing economy. His remarks imply that the peak, or terminal, level of the federal funds rate is likely to be higher than the previous indication from the Fed officials, and also that the switch last month to a smaller quarter-percentage point increase could be short-lived if inflation data continues to run hot.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss an announcement from automaker Rivian indicating a drop in its cash position. Rivian had cash and cash equivalents of $12.1 billion on hand at the end of December, down from $13.8 billion at the end of the third quarter and $15.5 billion as of June 30.

Chris and Saied look at news that investors have dumped shares of SVB Financial Group and a collection of other U.S. banks after the lender said it lost nearly $2 billion selling assets following a larger-than-expected decline in deposits.

They also offer some thoughts on data from ADP, indicating that private payrolls increased by 242,000 in February, versus the estimate for 205,000 and above the 119,000 in January.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Results of the most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report.
• The voluntary liquidation of Silvergate Bank.
• Demystifying concepts such as 'index plus margin' and a 'run on the bank.'
• Why there is much more at play in banking than just finance.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Dow closes 570 points lower, turns negative for 2023 as Powell ignites higher rate fears: Live updates" (article from CNBC)

"Fed's Powell again rejects idea of raising inflation target" (article from Reuters)

"Rivian Stuns Investors With Very Bad News" (article from The Street)

"US unemployment is falling even as the economy slows. What the heck is going on?" (article from MarketWatch)

"Fed Chair Powell says interest rates are ‘likely to be higher’ than previously anticipated" (article from CNBC)

"Job openings declined in January but still far outnumber available workers" (article from CNBC)

"Private payrolls rose by 242,000 in February, better than expected, ADP says" (article from CNBC)

Home prices have finally fallen from a year-ago levels, according to a commonly used indicator of data. Last month, investors received a slate of home price data for December and January from the National Association of Realtors and S&P Dow Jones Indices. The Realtors Association indicated that the median single-family home sold for $363,100 in January, up 0.7% year-over-year, while December data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices' reflected a national price increase of 5.8% year-over-year. More frequent data shows the housing market may have reached a turning point in February, with thin price gains turning into declines. Redfin said on Thursday that its measure of the median home sale price fell by 0.6% over a four-week period covering most of February.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news as well as other articles on the US housing market. Housing price and mortgage application indices have reached their lowest levels since the Great Recession in 2007.

Chris and Saied will debunk Dave Ramsey's concept of supply and demand. They also talk about why they believe house prices must fall. Chris will discusses the younger generation's sense of entitlement in the office as well as the concept of communication in the workplace.

Billionaire Charlie Munger expressed his opinion on cryptocurrencies by saying, "It's just ridiculous that anyone buys this stuff." They offer their insights on cryptocurrencies and Charlie Munger's interview. They look at CNBC's reports about crypto bank Silvergate Capital, whose shares have plummeted. According to MarketWatch, Silvergate shares have lost over 97% of their value since hitting an all-time high in November 2021.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation about debt, especially for people in their 30s, and what's best thing to do with your money. Spoiler alert: It just might be to keep it in cash.

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why affordability is a powerful factor.
• Why house prices have fallen more slowly in the Midwest.
• How CPI is significantly affected by home prices.
• Shoul you get a salary adjustment if you moved to Utah?
• Some of the biggest misconceptions for consumers when submitting their financial information to a bank.
• Millennials' growing debt.
• And so much more...

Resources:

The housing market correction, as told by 4 charts | Fortune

Billionaire Charlie Munger: Cryptocurrency is 'crazy, stupid gambling,' and 'people who oppose my position are idiots'

Here’s the real challenge facing Silvergate and other 'crypto banks,' says this short seller - MarketWatch

Americans in Their 30s Are Piling On Debt - WSJ

In recent episodes Chris and Saied have highlighted some of the things that get people excited in the current market. Today, however, Chris emphasizes that conditions have changed and there is a new call for concern. Time to be extra observant. Stocks move lower as bond yields extend their gains. The 10-year Treasury hit 4% and the 1-year treasury rose 3 basis points. The Minneapolis Fed Reserve President Neel Kashkari has said that he is open to the possibility of a larger interest rate increase at this month's policy meeting on March the 22.

But first Chris and Saied explore Tim Cramer and the inverse ETF (Exchange Traded Funds) of Cramer. One can literally bet against him to make money. Cramer is well known for his show Mad Money on CNBC. Chris describes how Cramer rose to popularity and still receives a lot of coverage but doesn’t actually have a profitable track record to follow.  He once urged listeners to dump HP stock in 2011 just before it shot up, and he did the same with Netflix and Best Buy in 2012. Is all this being done for entertainment value?

Chris and Saied get into the evolution of social media and what's next for that whole industry. Enjoy a discussion about the second wave of social media and how it may be driven by Gen Z's fundamentally different mindset. They discuss the Be Real app that will encourage people to be truly authentic.

Finally, Chris and Saied dive into Blackstone and the news that it defaulted on a $562 million bond backed by a portfolio of Finnish offices and stores. They dissect the implications of this news.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why betting against Tim Cramer is a good idea.
• What the big concerns are in the market and why you should be vigilant.
• How home prices and sales can really be a lag indicator.
• What happens when there is less revenue for companies and why some of the ramifications of a recession take time to show themselves.
• Interesting discussion about how Americans get over big news easily, including that of the Chinese balloon and disappearances of Chinese moguls in finance and tech.
• How Gen Z, and in particular teenage girls, will shape the social media landscape of the future.

Resources:

https://apple.news/Av_puaSbTSg6aOiM7mGvBtQ

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/02/28/treasury-prices-fall-slightly-to-close-out-bumper-month-for-yields.html

https://apple.news/Au83a5dJwTwOxXU-n5MTiNw

https://apple.news/ALcINeqAzSoypvOQOMmD5vg

https://apple.news/AsFGWviHCTmmgdYfWEo827g

https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/blog/inverse-cramer-etf-is-live

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-official-says-hotter-data-will-warrant-higher-rates-a0162583

We get it. Some times on The Higher Standard podcast we throw around a lot of financial terms that not everyone is familiar with. Chris, Saied and Haroon aim to fix that, in part, by practically defining a lot of financial terms for you that you didn't know you needed to know in episode 240 of the show.

➡️ From balance sheets to high yield savings accounts. From securities to bonds. From EPS to P/E ratios. We got you covered.

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What Is an Asset? Definition, Types, and Examples (Investopedia)

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Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Definition, Formula, and Examples (Investopedia)

⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

A measure the Federal Reserve watches closely to gauge inflation rose more than expected in January, indicating the central bank has more work to do to bring down prices. According to a report by the Commerce Department. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 0.6% for the month, and was up 4.7% from a year ago. Wall Street had been expecting respective readings of 0.5% and 4.4%. The core PCE gains were 0.4% and 4.6% in December.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a survey from the Philadelphia Fed that indicates 39% of crypto owners said last October that they would likely buy more cryptocurrency as a way to gain wealth.

Chris and Saied look at a research white paper that examines the history of central bank efforts to create disinflation, which states that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to be able to bring down inflation without having to raise interest rates considerably higher, causing a recession.

They also offer some thoughts on ‍a report from Goldman Sachs, which says that, out of the country's 25 largest metropolitan areas, four cities stand out for having particularly dim housing forecasts: Austin, Seattle, Phoenix and San Francisco.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why the Fed believes that wages and wage inflation will put upward pressure on prices.
• What could happen to the sub-markets of San Francisco and Silicon Valley.
• Why Open Door closed out 2022 with two straight quarters of losses and where it goes from there.
• The duties and role of a Chief Financial Officer.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Roger Ferguson: The Fed has more work to do as inflation still presents danger" (article from CNBC)

"Key Fed inflation measure rose 0.6% in January, more than expected" (article from CNBC)

"Despite high inflation, Americans are spending like crazy — and it's kind of puzzling" (article from CNBC)

"Fed can’t tame inflation without ‘significantly’ more hikes that will cause a recession, paper says" (article from CNBC)

"Are we headed for a recession? More economists think a 2023 downturn may come later than they thought" (article from USA Today)

"Subprime auto lender folds as more Americans fall behind on car payments" (article from Fortune)

"Home prices will sink in these cities that were once red hot as supply starts to overwhelm demand" (article from Markets Insider)

Redfin Corp. has said that the total value of homes in the U.S. totaled $45.3 trillion at the end of 2022, which is down about $2.3 trillion, or 4.9%, from the June 2022 peak of $47.7 trillion. That marks the biggest decline for any June-to-December period since 2008, during the financial crisis. The housing market has been declining as rising mortgage rates have hurt demand. The hardest hit area was San Francisco, which saw the total value of homes in December fall by $37.3 billion, or 6.7%, from a year ago to $517.5 billion, while Miami saw the value of its homes surge by $77 billion, or 19.7%, in December to $468.5 billion.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect this will have on the housing market.

They discuss data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showing that the average interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan rose last week to its highest since November as bond markets took fright that the Federal Reserve might have to continue tightening policy through summer to subdue inflation.

Chris and Saied look at news that the number of large office landlords defaulting on their loans is on the rise, which appears to offer fresh evidence that more developers believe that remote and hybrid work habits have permanently impaired the office market.

They also offer some thoughts on ‍the decision to no longer offer travelers using American Express premium credit cards the ability to to bring two free guests to the American Express lounges. There is now a $50 fee for adults and a $30 fee for children ages 2 to 17.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why something in the Fed rate outlook is causing problems in the market.
• Why college campuses have incubators for extremism on all sides.
• Why people need to be aware of where the market is moving.
• Why existing home sales have slowed down, no matter what some will say.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to highest level since November - MBA" (article from Reuters)

"US home values declined by $2.3 trillion in 2nd half of 2022, Redfin says" (article from MarketWatch)

"Existing home sales fall for the 12th consecutive month in January" (article from CNBC)

"Office Landlord Defaults Are Escalating as Lenders Brace for More Distress" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"American Express Airport Lounges Cut Back on Free Plus Ones" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

Bank of America analysts warn that the U.S. economy could be headed for a "no landing" scenario thanks to the hot labor market, but that might not be good news for the stock market. BoA chief economist Michael Hartnett predicted a "no landing" scenario in the first half of the year, where there is no immediate slowdown in growth but inflation remains above trend. That would likely force the Fed to raise interest rates much higher than previously forecast — and keep them elevated for longer.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and what it could mean for the economy as a whole.

They discuss comments from Equity Group Investments founder and chairman Sam Zell, stating that Jerome Powell "missed the boat" on inflation, allowing "super-low" interest rates to exist for too long.

Chris and Saied look at a warning from economist Mohamed El-Erian that the Federal Reserve won’t be able to get US inflation down to its 2% target without “crushing the economy.” He added that the central bank is unlikely to officially change that goal post.

They also offer some thoughts on a tweet from Charlie Bilello, Chief Market Strategist for Creative Planning, LLC, indicating that only 21% of homes for sale in the US sold above their final list price in the last 4 weeks, down from 40% a year ago. This is the lowest % since March 2020.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why holding rates for a prolonged period of time will create mental strain for people.
• The definition of a 'hard landing,' and what it means for the economy.
• Why household debt saw its largest increase in 20 years in New York.
• Whether the FOMC has the courage, after holding rates for 6-8 months, to raise them again.
• And so much more...

Resources:

The Real Deal via Instagram

"Bank of America Says Stock Market Threatened With 'No Landing' Scenario" (article from Entrepreneur)

"All aboard the mortgage rate roller coaster" (The Data Deli via Instagram)

"Fed Can’t Reach 2% Inflation Without Crushing Economy, El-Erian Says" (article from Bloomberg)

Charlie Bilello via Twitter

"Americans Have Nearly $1 Trillion in Credit Card Debt" (article from Bloomberg)

"Investors Worry Too-Hot Economy Will Put Fed on More Aggressive Rate Path" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

Retail sales rose far more than expected in January as consumers persevered despite rising inflation pressures. According to the report by the COmmerce Department, advance retail sales for the month increased 3%, compared with expectations for a rise of 1.9%. Excluding autos, sales rose 2.3%, which is not adjusted for inflation. The ex-autos estimate was for a gain of 0.9%.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and try to determine what effect it will have on the economy and the seemingly ever-present inflation.

They discuss comments from St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, who said that continued Federal Reserve rate increases will “lock in” slowing inflation even with continued economic growth. He also says it's likely that the economy will slow and the unemployment rate rise towards its “longer-run natural level,” something economists define as consistent with stable inflation and in the case of the United States estimated by Fed policymakers as around 4%.

Chris and Saied look at data from mortgage technology and data provider Black Knight Inc. showing that some of the most popular pandemic boomtowns such as Phoenix and Seattle, as well as popular West Coast cities like San Jose and San Francisco, posted home price declines of more than 10% from their 2022 peaks.

They also offer some thoughts on a report from the Labor Department, which indicates that inflation rebounded in January at the wholesale level, as producer prices rose more than expected to start the year.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why Chris believes that home values have gone down, but we're not seeing accurate reporting of that fact.
• Why the Fed's main tool for controlling monetary policy is the Fed funds rate.
• The most opportune time for people to list their homes.
• Why unemployment is often a by-product of the Fed raising interest rates.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"CPI shows US inflation still sticky and slowing grudgingly in January" (article from MarketWatch)

"Fed's Bullard: Further rate increases would "lock in" disinflation" (article from Reuters)

"Zillow says the home price correction is winding down—here’s what 28 other forecast models have to say" (article from Fortune)

"Map: Here's where home prices are dropping the most" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

"Here’s the breakdown of the inflation report for January — in one chart" (article from CNBC)

"Retail sales jump 3% in January, smashing expectations despite inflation increase" (article from CNBC)

"Consumer debt hits record $16.9 trillion as delinquencies also rise" (article from CNBC)

So it's finally happened. The Federal Reserve Board warned member banks that it intends to presumptively prohibit a large portion of cryptocurrency banking activity, as the demand for more guidance over digital assets has grown following rampant instances of fraud. The regulator issued a new policy largely prohibiting digital assets from the regulated banking environment, primarily due to security concerns.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and try to determine what effect it will have on the crypto space.

They discuss a recent Gallup poll indicating that half of Americans say they are financially worse off now than they were a year ago, the highest share since 2009. About 61% of those with a household income of less than $40,000 reported they were worse off, compared to 49% and 43% for middle- and high-income households respectively.

Chris and Saied look at a report from Zillow stating that the amount of time it would take to save enough to put 10% down on a typical home in Austin rose from eight years in 2019 to 13 years in 2022.

They also offer some thoughts on Affirm Holdings Inc. seeking new sponsor banks to diversify the sources of loan originations, as the buy-now, pay-later platform comes under pressure to improve earnings after a slowdown in growth.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• The concept of centralized cryptocurrency exchanges and how they work.
• What’s happening in the commercial real estate market in terms of lagging responses.
• Why banks have an ongoing due diligence requirement for commercial loans.
• The reasons why more San Francisco homes are selling below the asking price in LA.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Two More ‘Shoes To Drop’ In The Real Estate Market" (article from Forbes)

"Morgan Stanley says the stock market is ‘disconnected from reality’ and it’s going to hit bottom this Spring" (article from Fortune)

"Half of Americans say they're worse off than they were a year ago" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"Federal Reserve Issues New Restrictions on Crypto Banking" (article from NextGov)

"More San Francisco homes selling below asking price. Could that trend come to L.A.?" (article from the Los Angeles Times)

"It now takes roughly 13 years to save for a down payment in New York and Austin" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"Fed’s Neel Kashkari says central bank has not made enough progress, keeping his rate outlook" (article from CNBC)

Ian Shepherdson, founder and chief U.S. economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, believes that home prices may fall another 15% in 2023, citing the large disparity between property costs and buyer incomes. He predicted the eventual housing crash of 2008 in 2005 and recently suggested that the price-income gap, coupled with increased house supply and high mortgage rates, may precipitate a period of continued deceleration of the housing market rather than a significant rebound this year.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this prediction, and attempt to determine just how likely it could be based on current data.

They discuss comments from Zillow senior economist Jeff Tucker, who says that, in 2022, homeownership was further out of reach than it has been in modern recorded history. While home prices and mortgage rates may be falling, making the market at least a little more accessible, they’re doing so from historic highs.

Chris and Saied look at an interview with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who said that explosive jobs growth is evidence that the central bank has more work to do when it comes to taming inflation, including more hikes to interest rates.

They also offer some thoughts on the differences between the affordability crisis this time around, and the last recession.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• The difference between being data-driven and data-based.
• Why Bob Iger is right-sizing the company to weather the storm and to be more efficient, returning more profits to the shareholders.
• Why Zoom has laid off 15% of its workforce.
• What would happen if the Fed started lowering rates again and the effect it would have on inflation?
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Economist Who Predicted the 2008 Housing Crash Says Home Prices Will Drop 15% in 2023" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

"Home prices are falling, but that doesn’t mean they’re affordable" (article from Grid)

"Bob Iger Outlines New Disney Org Structure, With 7,000 Job Cuts Planned" (article from The Hollywood Reporter)

"Fed’s Neel Kashkari says central bank has not made enough progress, keeping his rate outlook" (article from CNBC)

"Zoom to lay off 1,300 employees, or about 15% of its workforce" (article from CNBC)

"Yahoo to lay off more than 20% of staff" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

Employers added more jobs in January than expected, while the unemployment rate fell to a 53-year low, underscoring the resilience of the labor market despite the Fed's aggressive tightening campaign. ⁣ Nonfarm payrolls increased 517,000 last month after an upwardly revised 260,000 gain in December. The figure beat all estimates from economists, who called for a 188,000 gain in payrolls. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.4%, the lowest since May 1969, and average hourly earnings grew at steady pace.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news, and determine the effect this will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss ARK Investment Management CEO Cathie Wood’s comments that ARK is "the new Nasdaq," adding that her flagship fund now gives investors better exposure to long-term innovation than most of the market’s most popular growth stock benchmarks.

Chris and Saied look at a report stating that benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit four-week highs after the recent employment numbers raised expectations that the Fed's rate hikes will not end with a hard economic landing, and that the U.S. central bank may have more than one more rate increase left.

They also offer some thoughts on Blackstone's plans to ramp up evictions to help its struggling real estate investment trust.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why wages aren't keeping up with inflation, and what the next stage of the Fed's pivot might look like.
• Why the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange is temporarily suspending deposits and withdrawals of US dollars.
• Why FTX debtors are calling on politicians, parties and PACs to return tens of millions in campaign contributions.
• The definition of a depreciation amortization benefit.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"US adds 517,000 jobs in January, far exceeding economists forecasts" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"Jobs Report Tells Markets What Fed Chairman Powell Tried to Tell Them" (article from Barron's)

"A New Supercycle Is Starting, Says This Macro Strategist. How to Invest." (article from Barron's)

"Cathie Wood says AARK is "the new Nasdaq" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"Binance to Suspend US Dollar Transfers Using Bank Accounts" (article from Bloomberg)

"TREASURIES-Yields hit four-week highs, Fed expected to hike above 5%" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

"Blackstone ramps up tenant evictions" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)

Real estate brokers across the country are using ChatGPT to pen emails and write property listings. The AI chatbot ChatGPT has made waves in sectors from tech to media since it launched to the public two months ago. As the AI software grows in popularity, people are finding more and more creative ways to put the tech to use — including making it write flowery descriptions for real estate listings. As the technology emerges as a tool for realtors, some experts say AI is well on its way to becoming an industry standard. Use of AI has spread far and wide among realtors. Miami broker Andres Asion has even used the tech to rewrite emails, emphasizing legal liabilities and implications.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine the explosion of AI and its use by business - not to mention its darker uses, such as creating fake social media accounts.

They discuss the news that major U.S. stock indexes closed over 1% higher as labor cost data encouraged investors about the Federal Reserve's aggressive approach to taming inflation a day ahead of the central bank's critical policy decision.

Chris and Saied look at a report stating that Blackstone, one of the country's biggest landlords, is ramping up evictions to help its struggling real estate investment trust.

They also offer some thoughts on news from payroll processing firm ADP, which is reporting that job creation in the private sector plunged in January as weather-related issues kept workers home. Companies added just 106,000 new workers for the month, down from an upwardly revised 253,000 the month before.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• The biggest winners and losers from the Fed's latest interest rate hike.
• How long it takes for recessionary effects (aka lagging indicators) to show up.
• Why (and how) people are using AI to create fake social media accounts.
• Mark Zuckerberg's record $12.5 billion day.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"More Americans are falling behind on car payments than during the 2008 financial crisis" (Bloomberg via Instagram)

"California DMV is now on the blockchain. Why that’s a bigger deal than you think" (article from Fortune)

St. Louis Fed Economic Data

"Biggest winners and losers from the Fed’s interest rate hike" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

"Wall St gains over 1% after encouraging inflation data with Fed next" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

"S&P 500 advances more than 1% to its best level in five months as Meta leads tech-fueled rally" (article from CNBC)

"US Job Openings Surge Past 11 Million as Fed Zeros In on Labor" (article from Bloomberg)

According to an index of building occupancies in 10 major metro areas by security firm Kastle Systems, more than half of workers went to the office last week, the first time that return-to-office rates crossed 50% of their pre-pandemic levels. All of the cities tracked by the company — including San Francisco, Chicago and Austin, Texas — reached return-to-office levels of 40% or above, which was also a post-pandemic first.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this and many other stories and attempt to cut through the spin and the rhetoric to get at the truth.

They discuss comments from Starwood Capital's Barry Sternlicht, who said that, if Jerome Powell continues down the path that we're going, he's going to drive the economy into a horrible situation because the government won't be able to afford to pay its bills, and why that thinking is flawed.

Chris and Saied look at a survey by Pymnts.com and Lending Club, which indicates that the share of Americans who say they live paycheck-to-paycheck climbed last year to 64%, and most of the new arrivals in that category were earning more than $100,000 a year.

They also offer some thoughts on the Fed's decision to reject Wyoming-based crypto-centric bank Custodia's application to become a member of the central bank's exclusive payment system, saying that the firm's proposed business plan, and focus on crypto assets, presented significant safety and soundness risks.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why the Fed rejected Custodia's application to join the US payment system.
• Why the market's reactions are disconnected from what the Fed is trying to accomplish.
• The five types of treasury securities
• The importance of staying true to your budget when looking for a home.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Fed rejects crypto bank’s application to join U.S. payment system" (article from MarketWatch)

"Inflation Fell but so Did Spending. The Economic Signals Are Both Good and Bad" (article from Barron's)

"National home prices have further to fall, say 24 leading housing market researchers—while 5 firms think prices have bottomed" (article from Fortune)

"Wall Street Is Losing Out to Amateur Buyers in the Housing Slump" (article from Bloomberg)

"US offices reach 50% occupancy for the first time since Covid" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"More Americans are living paycheque-to-paycheque, even those on more than $100,000" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index, mortgage interest rates fell for the third straight week, while mortgage demand also rose again. Total application volume increased 7% last week compared with the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 6.2% from 6.23%, with points increasing to 0.69 from 0.67 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was just about half that one year ago.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the housing market and the economy as a whole.

They discuss data released by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors on their UtahRealEstate.com website, which states that Utah’s most populated county, Salt Lake County, has seen its first year-over-year decline in housing prices since 2011.

Chris and Saied look at Goldman Sachs' forecast of record drops in San Diego's home prices, saying that home values will fall at levels similar to the 2008 crash. The predictions indicate that San Diego, San Jose, Austin, and Phoenix will see declines of more than 25%.

They also offer some thoughts on the rise of fourth-quarter gross domestic product of 2.9%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a reading of 2.8%.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why the World Economic Forum is not a true economic forum.
• Why GDP is a good indicator for a recessionary economy.
• The concept of student loan forbearance.
• How the Federal Reserve pulls money out of the system.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Most economists expect a US recession in 2023, but nailing the timing is a tall order" (Bloomberg Businessweek via Instagram)

"Two in three Americans cannot cover a $400 emergency expense" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"Money Supply Shrinks for the First Time. What It Says About Inflation and the Economy." (article from Barron's)

"Want To Know Where House Prices Are Heading In 2023? Watch Mortgage Rates" (article from Forbes)

"Salt Lake County, Utah housing prices drop 6% — the first year-over-year decline in 11 years" (article from Deseret News)

"Goldman Sachs forecasts 2008-sized crash in San Diego housing market" (CBS8 via Instagram)

"U.S. GDP rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter, more than expected even as recession fears loom" (article from CNBC)

"'Big Short' Burry Suggests the Stock Market Jump Is a Mirage" (article from The Street)

"BofA warns

Episode 239 of The Higher Standard podcast starts off with Chris, Saied and Haroon diving in to some of the top financial mistakes people make. Some of these may sound basic or simple, but you would be shocked at how many people are impacted by these problems every single day.

➡️ For the second segment of the show, the boys go deep on the first strong probability of a Fed Funds rate cut. See, we told you that we don't only bring you bad news.

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🔗 Resources:

Powell indicates Fed won't wait until inflation is down to 2% before cutting rates (CNBC)

Powell Says US Data Offer Confidence That Inflation Is on Path to 2% (Bloomberg)

Markets are betting there's a 100% chance the Fed cuts rates in September (Yahoo! Finance)

Wall Street Economists See Compelling Case for Fed to Cut Now (Yahoo! Finance)

No rush for US Fed to cut rates, IMF's chief economist says (Yahoo! Finance)

⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

The job cuts in the tech industry continue to pile up. Google announced plans to lay off 12,000 people from its workforce, while Microsoft said that it’s letting go of 10,000 employees. Amazon also began a fresh round of job cuts that are expected to eliminate more than 18,000 employees and become the largest workforce reduction in the e-retailer’s 28-year history. The layoffs come in a period of slowing growth, higher interest rates to battle inflation, and fears of a possible recession next year.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and as always, attempt to determine how it affects the economy as a whole.

They discuss a report from the Commercial Observer, based on data from Cushman and Wakefield, which shows that the vacancy rate in the fourth quarter for shopping centers was 5.7 percent, the lowest level in 15 years.

Chris and Saied look at an item from CNN stating that the US hit the debt ceiling set by Congress on Thursday, forcing the Treasury Department to start taking extraordinary measures to keep the government paying its bills and escalating pressure on Capitol Hill to avoid a catastrophic default.

They also offer some thoughts on the unexpected drop in unemployment benefits claims that occurred last week, suggesting a tight labor market, despite higher interest rates.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• The debt ceiling: What it is and why it matters.
• Why home sales have slumped to a 12-year low.
• How much of the return to offices is because of executive level productivity vs. morale.
• The problem with ego and the distorted reality it can create.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"US hits debt ceiling, prompting Treasury to take extraordinary measures" (article from CNN Politics)

"Google, Microsoft, Amazon and other tech companies have laid off more than 70,000 employees in the last year" (article from CNBC)

"US shopping center vacancy hits 15-year low" (The Real Deal via Instagram)

"The curtain is closing on these Regal theaters in SoCal" (NBCLA via Instagram)

"U.S. home sales slump to 12-year low; glimmers of hope emerging" (article from Reuters)

"U.S. will hit its debt limit Thursday, start taking steps to avoid default, Yellen warns Congress" (article from CNBC)

"Tamer CPI Inflation Rate Should Keep S&P 500 Rallying Until The Fed Meeting" (article from Investor's Business Daily)

"Economists in WSJ Survey Still See Recession This Year Despite Easing Inflation" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

The SEC are suing two crypto brokerages - Genesis Global Capital and Gemini Trust Co. - for breaking securities rules. The SEC says that the firms illegally raised billions of dollars from hundreds of thousands of investors through the so-called Gemini Earn program. That product, which let customers loan out their assets in exchange for interest payments, amounted to the offering of unregistered securities. Gemini launched Earn in February of 2021, with the idea of offering users passive returns on their coins in exchange for the right to lend the tokens out. By August, the program, which offered rates that far exceeded those on traditional bank accounts, crossed $3 billion in assets.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and try to determine what it means for the embattled crypto industry as a whole.

They discuss the problem with fake followers and accounts on social media and how people can use these tactics to attack others and get social accounts blocked or even banned.

Chris and Saied look at the difficulty with artificial intelligence and why Congress may be too late to the party in trying to regulate it and anything to do with the internet.

They also offer some thoughts on a reportedly 'risky' move by American Express, in which they have reinvented the Platinum card to make it more desirable to younger urbanites, increasing the annual fee well above those of its competitors - a strategy which seems to have worked.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why it's now possible to 'buy now, pay later' on things like pizza.
• Why Chris thinks Shark Tank is just a money grab and why he dislikes Kevin O'Leary.
• JP Morgan’s claim that it was 'duped' into acquiring fintech startup Frank, due to lies about Frank's scale and success, created by an enormous list of fake users.
• A look at the due diligence process for a bank during the acquisition process.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"FTX finds over $5 billion in liquid assets, judge extends ruling keeping creditor names secret" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

"Microsoft reportedly plans to invest $10 billion in creator of buzzy A.I. tool ChatGPT" (article from CNBC)

"Coinbase to lay off 20% of workers in latest sign of crypto industry pain" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

"The SEC is suing crypto brokerages Genesis and Gemini" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"The ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ Bubble Is About to Burst" (article from The Atlantic)

"AmEx Hooked Big Spenders and Regained the Throne With a Pricier Platinum Card" (article from Bloomberg)

Following a spike at the end of 2022, mortgage rates dropped sharply last week, driving demand from current homeowners hoping to save on their monthly payments, though it failed to excite potential homebuyers. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index is reporting that the total mortgage application volume rose 1.2% last week compared with the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances decreased to 6.42% from 6.58%, with points remaining at 0.73 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was 3.52% just a year ago.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and try to make sense of what it means for the housing market and the economy as a whole.

They discuss the effects recessions have had on the energy sector historically, such as lower oil demand, as well as a comment by Jerome Powell stating that price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy.

Chris and Saied look at comments from Ron Insana from Contrast Capital, stating that the current data don’t support concerns by the Fed and many other economists who worry about an emergent wage/price spiral.

They also offer some thoughts on the precedents that were set by the acquisition of Union Bank by US Bancorp, and how that has affected other banks, such as embattled Wells Fargo.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• The latest CPI report and what it means for inflation and the economy.
• Why the World Bank's statement about cutting its 2023 forecasts is not nearly as ominous as it sounds.
• The unconstitutional nature of Biden's student loan forgiveness plan.
• Why the job numbers appear to still be relatively strong, despite mass layoffs happening across several sectors.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Inflation is easing, even if it may not feel that way" (article from NPR)

"Insana says the case is clear that inflation is over" (article from CNBC)

"Mortgage refinance demand surges, as homeowners take advantage of lower interest rates" (article from CNBC)

"The World Bank is cutting its 2023 forecasts and warning of a global recession" (Bloomberg Businessweek via Instagram)

"Forget Core CPI, Market Pros Are Searching for Supercore Inflation" (article from The Wall Street Journal)