The Higher Standard – Details, episodes & analysis

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied take the stage as a dynamic duo, flying solo without their third musketeer, Haroon, who’s off on PTO (probably in a pickleball tournament or hiding from the Fed). With no one to keep them in check, the two dive headfirst into a whirlwind of financial insights, market predictions, and why the MAG 7 tech giants are carrying the S&P 500 on their backs like Atlas — except Tesla, whose latest earnings had investors buzzing despite mixed results. It’s a "two wise men" operation this week, and things get as real as inflation at a gas pump on payday.

➡️ Chris and Saied break down the love-hate relationship between the markets and the Fed — one’s bullish, the other’s just a buzzkill. They riff on whether inflation is here to stay, question if we’re headed for stagflation, and poke fun at economists trying to predict a recession like it’s the weather. Along the way, they tackle rising insurance premiums, paycheck-to-paycheck living, and the surreal cost of burritos ($46 for breakfast?!). With humor, hard-hitting insights, and a few Monopoly references thrown in for good measure, this episode is a wild ride through the tangled mess of today’s economy.

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🔗 Resources:

Financial insecurity and cost of living (Business Insider)

Tweet on inflation and financial markets (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Tweet on housing affordability crisis (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Tweet on MAG 7 stocks and market concentration (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Tesla's Q3 Earnings Report (Yahoo Finance)

Existing Home Sales Fall To 14 Year Low (Yahoo Finance via Instagram)

Here’s when prices might ease, per Fed’s Daly (MarketWatch)

⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are

Consumers might have to wait two to three years for their perceptions of inflation to normalize, as highlighted by Fed’s Daly, leaving many still wincing at higher prices. Meanwhile, falling home prices are causing significant distress, particularly in ten states where mortgage balances now exceed property values.

➡️ Episode 252 of The Higher Standard podcast dives into the alarming drop in US mortgage applications, which saw a 17% decrease—the largest since April 2020—along with potential benefits for homeowners in certain cities as interest rates tumble. The discussion also covers the anxiety surrounding credit card debt among Americans and JPMorgan’s new strategy to attract affluent clients with enticing branch experiences. Wrapping up, Chris, Saied and Haroon tackle why so many companies are firing Gen-Z employees, emphasizing a disconnect between workplace expectations and work ethic in today’s job market.

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👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com

🧊 Get 12% off any purchase at Ice Barrel (Excludes chillers)

🔗 Resources:

Here’s when consumers might finally stop wincing at higher prices, according to Fed’s Daly (MarketWatch)

Falling home prices are hitting homeowners in these 10 states the hardest — with up to 10% of mortgage balancesnow topping their property values (Business Insider)

JUST IN: US mortgage applications have dropped by 17.0% over the last week, the most since April 2020 (X / The Kobeissi Letter)

22 cities where homebuyers and owners will benefit most as interest rates tumble (Apple News)

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Sept Update: Prices Drop in 26 of 28 Big Metros, even San Diego, Los Angeles (Wolf Street)

Americans are really anxious about their credit card debt (The Street)

'Signature bites' and free umbrellas: Inside JPMorgan’s plan to lure more rich people to its branches (Yahoo Finance)

In episode 243 of The Higher Standard podcast, hosts Chris, Saied, and Haroon dive headfirst into the world of social media financial influencers, giving a no-holds-barred critique of those you should avoid at all costs. They call out big names like Grant Cardone, Pace Morby, Kris Krohn, Luke Belmar, Albert Preciado and more.

➡️ As the conversation shifts gears, the hosts tackle some of the hottest financial news floating around Instagram. They break down the cooling inflation rates, the credit card debt that's soaring to dizzying heights, and Starbucks' bold move of poaching Chipotle's CEO like it's a new menu item. It wouldn’t be The Higher Standard without a little pop culture flair, the hosts wrap up with a whirlwind tour through the latest celebrity news and jaw-dropping headlines—from Adele’s engagement to Rich Paul to Tom Cruise’s Olympic-sized stunt planning.

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🔗 Resources:

Inflation cools to lowest level since march 2021 (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

U.S. consumer price index (NBC Chart Of The Day via Instagram)

Overall inflation below 3% for first time since march 2021 (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Credit card debt hit record $1.14 trillion (NBC Chart Of The Day via Instagram)

Starbucks soars after poaching chipotle CEO (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain its benchmark lending rate at the 5%-5.25% range, marking the first skip after 10 consecutive increases going back to March of last year. While officials’ efforts have helped to reduce price pressures in the US economy, inflation remains well above their goal. Investors’ focus will be on the Fed’s quarterly dot plot in its Summary of Economic Projections, which is expected to show the policy benchmark rate at 5.1% at the end of 2023. 

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss comments from Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, who claims to be surprised at the way the US economy has weathered higher interest rates, elevated inflation, and banking turmoil over the past year.

Chris and Saied look at recent Fed data, indicating that Americans have a record amount of credit card debt right now — close to $990 billion.

They also offer some thoughts on a revised home prices forecast from Goldman Sachs strategists, who now predict a smaller decline this year — 2.2% decline in 2023, down from 6.1%. 

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• The little signs that people are noticing that signal a recession.
• Why people are reluctant to change their living standards.
• Why consumers will start cutting back on discretionary spending.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"The U.S. economy has been incredibly resilient,” Goldman Sachs CEO" (CNBC)

"Americans have almost $990 billion in credit card debt" (Marketplace)

"The hidden risk on bank balance sheets" (Axios)

"'I told you so': Dave Ramsey made the correct call on US real estate 18 months ago — but is he still right about housing in 2023? Here's what the financial guru thinks now" (Moneywise)

https://moneywise.com/real-estate/dave-ramseys-2023-real-estate-predictions

"Wall Street is divided on the outlook for US house prices. Here's what 6 experts have recently said." (Markets Insider)

"Fed Is Set to Pause and Assess the Effect of Rate Hikes" (Bloomberg)

According to Michael Gapen, Bank of America's chief economist, the US economy will likely face a mild recession later this year, but the risk of a severe economic downturn appears low as of now. A correction of labor-market imbalances is needed to bring inflation back down to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and that typically looks like a mild recession. With risks receding, stress in the banking sector stabilizing, and macroeconomic trends looking good, Gapen said the Fed faces a tough decision regarding interest rates and investors can't completely rule out the possibility of another hike.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a report from the Labor Department, indicating that initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 261,000 for the week ended June 3, an increase of 28,000 from the upwardly revised level of the previous period.

Chris and Saied look at data from Realtor.com with the National Association of Realtors, showing that the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered in the high-6% range in May. At that level, buyers with an annual income of $100,000, slightly above the national median, could afford a house with a maximum price of about $341,000, however just 39% of the homes for sale were listed at or below that price point in May.

They also offer some thoughts on a new real estate transfer tax in Los Angeles, that was supposed to give the city an average of $56 million a month in its first year. However, in its first month, the Measure ULA tax took in $3.6 million. For transactions closing in April, the city received the revenue from five deals that were subject to the new tax.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why growth is often used as a metaphor of prosperity.
• Why a credit crunch has already begun in the commercial office real estate.
• Why Larry Summers thinks the Fed has made a huge mistake, and why that's wrong.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"The US will face a mild recession, but the risk of a 'hard landing' is currently low, Bank of America's chief economist says" (Business Insider)

"Jobless claims increase more than expected to their highest since October 2021" (CNBC)

"U.S. consumer-credit growth accelerates in April to fastest pace in five months" (MarketWatch)

"The shortage of houses is hitting some people and areas harder than others" (CNBC)

"The “mansion tax” was supposed to bring in $56M monthly. It took in $3.6M" (TheRealDeal)

"Larry Summers says that the Fed should consider doubling down on interest rates in July if it pauses in June because the risk of ‘overheating the economy’" (Fortune)

The Securities and Exchange Commission filed 13 charges against Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, and its founder, Changpeng Zhao, alleging both commingled billions of dollars worth of user funds and sent them to a European company controlled by Zhao. The U.S. regulator alleged on Monday that Zhao and his exchange worked to subvert ‘their own controls’ to allow high-net-worth U.S. investors and customers to continue trading on Binance's unregulated international exchange.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a story stating that Christian radio host Dave Ramsey is facing a $150 million lawsuit from 17 listeners who claim he played a role in defrauding them by promoting a timeshare exit company.

Chris and Saied look at a report from the Labor department indicating that payrolls in the public and private sector increased by 339,000 for the month, better than the 190,000 Dow Jones estimate and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth.

They also offer some thoughts on the latest Markets Live Pulse survey, which found that roughly one in two people who work in finance would change jobs — or already have — if their managers required them to spend more time in the office.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why air travel is the highest-ranking inflation item at 26%.
• Why realtors are bowing out of the real estate industry.
• The concept of timeshares and their benefits.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Christian radio host Dave Ramsey faces $150 million lawsuit from listeners who say they were defrauded by a timeshare exit company he promoted" (Yahoo! Finance)

"SEC sues Binance and CEO Changpeng Zhao for U.S. securities violations" (CNBC)

"Payrolls rose 339,000 in May, much better than expected in resilient labor market" (CNBC)

"Don’t Ask Us to Come to the Office More — Or We Will Quit, Investors Say" (Bloomberg)

"A $1.5 Trillion Backstop for Homebuyers Props Up Banks Instead" (Bloomberg)

"Why the U.S. Remains Far From Recession" (The Wall Street Journal)

Goldman Sachs is preparing for its third round of layoffs since September as Wall Street firms adjust to a slump in deals activity. The company is expected to trim fewer than 250 jobs in the coming weeks. Goldman Sachs, led by CEO David Solomon, was among the first major Wall Street firms to trim jobs in September, cutting a few hundred positions. It then slashed more jobs in January, releasing about 3,200 employees. Morgan Stanley announced about 3,000 job cuts this month, and JPMorgan Chase cut about 500 jobs. However, Goldman is more tied to the ups and downs of Wall Street than its rivals. Its combined 16% drop in first-quarter trading and advisory revenue contributed to a disappointing start to the year.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a report from Refinitiv's FedWatch, indicating that U.S. rate futures on Wednesday priced in a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve at next month's monetary policy meeting, a massive turnaround from indications of a 25 basis-point increase earlier in the session.

Chris and Saied look at a report from payroll processing firm ADP, showing that the U.S. labor market posted another month of surprising strength in May as companies added jobs at a pace well above expectations.

They also offer some thoughts on the tumble the stock market took on Wednesday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%, or 150 points, by 3:15 p.m. ET, while the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 0.5% apiece.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• The concept of market capitalization.
• Why inversion typically precedes a recessionary economy.
• Why the data is showing that employment is headed in the wrong direction.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Dow falls 130 points after FDIC reveals record plunge in bank deposits" (Forbes via Instagram) 

"US rate futures expect Fed pause in June in sharp turnaround from earlier" (Reuters)

"Goldman Sachs is cutting jobs again amid Wall Street deals slump" (CNBC)

"Job openings show surprise increase in April" (Yahoo! Finance)

"Private payrolls rose by 278,000 in May, well ahead of expectations, ADP says" (CNBC)

"Pending home sales unchanged in April, down 20% year-over-year" (CNBC)

"Market Capitalization: What It Is and Why It Matters" (NerdWallet)

U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in April, boosting the economy's growth prospects for the second quarter, and inflation picked up, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again next month. The growth picture was further brightened by other data from the Commerce Department on Friday showing a surprise rebound last month in orders of manufactured non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss the debate among Fed officials, centered on concerns over inflation not cooling fast enough and the labor market’s persistent strength. 

Chris and Saied look at the increase in real GDP, which reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and residential fixed investment.

They also offer some thoughts on a jump in consumer spending of 0.8% last month after gaining 0.1% in March. Economists had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, would rise 0.4%.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• The difference between Gross DOmestic Income (GDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

• Why the National Bureau of Economic Research has not declared a recession.

• Why the additional stress placed on all corporations and profitability will be very visible in July.

• And so much more...

"Gross Domestic Income GDI Suggests US Is In Recession Right Now" (Zero Hedge)

"Strong US consumer spending, inflation readings put Fed in tough spot" (Reuters)

"Fed officials debated need for rate hike at last meeting, minutes show" (CNN)

"A Housing Bust Comes for Thousands of Small-Time Investors" (The Wall Street Journal)

Deposit runs have led to the collapse of three U.S. banks this year, but another concern is building on the horizon. According to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, commercial real estate is the area most likely to cause problems for lenders. U.S. banks have experienced historically low loan defaults over the last few years due to low interest rates and the flood of stimulus money unleashed during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the Federal Reserve has hiked rates to fight inflation, which has changed the landscape. Commercial buildings in some markets, including tech-centric San Francisco, may take a hit as remote workers are reluctant to return to offices.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss an academic paper from economist Olivier Blanchard and former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, who guided the central bank and the U.S. economy through the Great Recession, in which they argue that central bankers still have work to do to bring down inflation.

Chris and Saied look at news that San Francisco has the largest sublease market of any U.S. metropolitan area, with 7.2% of its overall office inventory available for sublease, having doubled that figure since late 2019.

They also offer some thoughts on the rise of asset managers, private equity funds and insurers, as the regional banking crisis supercharges the expansion of these non-bank lenders into areas such as providing consumer car loans and mortgages, or financing the construction of buildings.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why the debt ceiling 'crisis' is a non-event.
• Private equity and how it differs from real estate syndicators.
• Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs): a new way to take companies public.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Here's how much emergency savings you need amid economic uncertainty, according to financial advisors" (CNBC via Instagram)

"Fed Chair Powell says rates may not have to rise as much as expected to curb inflation" (CNBC)

"Jamie Dimon warns souring commercial real estate loans could threaten some banks" (CNBC)

"Analysis: Private equity steps up lending as U.S. banks pull back" (Reuters)

"Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke says there’s more work ahead to control inflation" (CNBC)

"What's the right emergency fund amount?" (Vanguard)

"These Companies Are Trying To Shed Massive Amounts of San Francisco Office Space" (SF Standard)

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester has said that she does not think the U.S. central bank is at a point yet where it can hold interest rates steady for a period of time, given how stubborn inflation is. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signaled the central bank may pause further rate hikes as it assesses the impact of its past tightening, as well as the effect of recent bank sector stress on lending and credit.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss news that JPMorgan sees treasuries as the best hedge against a slowdown, and sees the possibility of 10-year rates falling below 2.5% in the event of a deep recession. The 10-year Treasury rate was trading around 3.53% on Wednesday, after rising as high as 4.09% earlier in the year.

Chris and Saied look at comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic, who said that, if he were voting on monetary policy today, he would vote to hold interest rates steady, but added there is still a lot of data to come before the Fed's meeting in June.

They also offer some thoughts on Elon Musk's assertions that he doesn’t care if his inflammatory tweets scare away potential Tesla buyers or Twitter advertisers.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why most people believe that a recession is inevitable at this point.
• Why, despite the fanfare in the media, we're not yet in a credit tightening cycle.
• The importance of looking at the actual data, not the intentions.
• Why Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic says he would not cut rates unless inflation fell farther than to mid to high 3%.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Default Fears Rattle Main Street Investors" (The Wall Street Journal)

"JPMorgan Asset Says Markets Are Right to Bet on US Rate Cuts" (Bloomberg)

"Home Prices Posted Largest Annual Drop in More Than 11 Years in April" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Fed's Mester says not yet at point where it can 'hold' rates" (Reuters)

"Fed's Bostic: if vote on policy were today, would vote to hold steady" (Reuters)

"Elon Musk: ‘I’ll say what I want, and if the consequence of that is losing money, so be it’" (CNBC)