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TitlePub. DateDuration
What Maduro's Detention Means for China06 Jan 202600:52:11

One of the prevailing narratives that's emerged following the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the detention of President Nicolás Maduro is that this is a major setback for China. Some analysts have called it a "strategic failure" on Beijing's part, while others have described it as "reality check" for China's role as a "global player."

But China's ability to influence events in Venezuela and elsewhere in Latin America is extremely limited, so the assessment that what happened in Caracas was a blow to Beijing may also be overstated.

Alonso Illueca, CGSP's non-resident fellow for Latin America and the Caribbean, joins Eric from Panama City to discuss whether Maduro's capture presents new risks or opportunities for China.

📌 Topics covered include:

  • China's response to the U.S. detention of Nicolás Maduro
  • Why Venezuela matters to China: oil, loans, and exposure
  • Why Venezuela is not a Taiwan precedent
  • The U.S. "Our Hemisphere" doctrine and spheres of influence
  • China's special envoy visit to Caracas
  • Short-term setbacks vs. long-term gains for China
  • Electoral pushback against China in Latin America
  • Panama tensions over ports and Chinese-linked infrastructure
  • Why Latin America cannot quickly decouple from China
  • Military force vs. economic leverage in U.S.–China rivalry

Show Notes:

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque | @christiangeraud

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 

Join us Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

 

 

 

2025 China-Global South Year in Review25 Dec 202501:02:26

In this special year-end edition of The China-Global South Podcast, Eric, Cobus, and Géraud look back on the top stories of 2025 and look ahead to the key trend to watch in 2026. 

📌 Topics covered include:

  • Simandou goes online (Guinea) and the iron ore geopolitics shift
  • Zambia's Kafue River spill and the China narrative battle
  • China's manufacturing push, overcapacity, and export pressures
  • Soybeans and South America's growing leverage in U.S.–China trade
  • China–India détente and what it changes (and doesn't)
  • G20 turbulence around South Africa and global governance fractures
  • 2026 outlook: Southeast Asia rivalry, Zimbabwe lithium value-add, Senegal hidden debt

Show Notes:

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque | @christiangeraud

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish: 

Join us Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Trump, China and the New Power Politics in Asia14 Oct 202500:35:58

Chinese exports are booming—but ties with the U.S. are collapsing. Across Asia, from Beijing to Manila, Washington's shifting strategy under Trump is reshaping alliances and testing security guarantees that have underpinned the region for decades.

Eric speaks with James Crabtree, a distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and the Asia Society, about how Asia's leaders are adapting to a world in flux:

  • China's mix of confidence and anxiety amid its own economic slowdown

  • How Trump's erratic policy is breaking apart the anti-China coalition

  • Growing doubts in Tokyo, Seoul, and Manila about U.S. security guarantees

  • Taiwan's precarious position and fears of being left alone

  • Vietnam's balancing act between U.S. tariffs and China's dominance

  • Why India is quietly building backup plans with Europe

JOIN THE DISCUSSION:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine

JOIN US ON PATREON!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

A Primer on the Escalating Tensions in the South China Sea27 Jun 202300:51:01

The South China Sea is one of the world's most strategically vital maritime zones where more than $5 trillion of trade passes through each year -- a whopping 60% of the globe's total maritime commerce. It's also the epicenter of an increasingly contentious geopolitical dispute among more than half a dozen countries over territorial boundaries and who ultimately controls this enormous body of water.

Chinese sovereignty claims over the whole of the South China Sea have provoked furious responses from its regional neighbors and sparked a dangerous duel with the U.S. and other major navies over continued freedom of navigation through the area.

Ray Powell, a former U.S. Air Force colonel, tracks the maneuvers of ships and other vessels operating in the South China Sea on a daily basis as the team lead for Stanford University's Project Myoushu. Ray joins Eric & Cobus from Palo Alto to break down the different territorial claims and why this burgeoning maritime conflict is so incredibly important.

JOIN THE DISCUSSION:

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China's Fanciful Dream to Play Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaker21 Jun 202300:49:33

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas wrapped up a visit to Beijing last week where he heard lofty promises from Chinese officials about their desire to mediate a settlement with Israel. While the visit made for some good headlines, the chances of China jump-starting the stalled peace process are close to zero.

Tuvia Gering, a leading China watcher in Israel and a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Jerusalem, and Jony Essa, CGSP's Arabic Editor, join Eric and Cobus to discuss the key takeaways from the Abbas visit and explain why China is not well-positioned to broker a settlement between Israelis and Palestinians.

SHOW NOTES:


JOIN THE DISCUSSION:

Twitter: @ChinaGSProject@stadenesque | @eric_olander |@geringtuvia

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YouTubewww.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

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عربيwww.akhbaralsin-africia.com | @AkhbarAlSinAfr

JOIN US ON PATREON!

Become a CAP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CAP Podcast mug!

www.patreon.com/chinaafricaproject

If You Lead a Developing Country and Want to Borrow Money From China, Then Listen to This Podcast07 Jun 202300:49:54

The days of China easily handing out billions of dollars to build infrastructure in developing countries around the world are now over. The Chinese can't afford it anymore and many of the borrowing countries just don't have the capacity to take on more debt.

But that doesn't mean the Chinese aren't lending anymore. They are. It's just that the projects they finance today are either small -- below $50 million -- or "beautiful" -- support local communities and align with certain Chinese political objectives.

Edwin Li, a Beijing-based project finance attorney for the international law firm Dentons, detailed these new lending priorities in a recent article and joins Eric & Cobus to explain why it's critical that borrowing countries clearly understand what China does and doesn't fund.

SHOW NOTES:

  • China ODI Project Finance and Law: How to Define "Xiao Er Mei" (Small or Beautiful) in the Belt and Road Initiative by Edwin Li: https://bit.ly/3MTxde2
  • Boston University Global Development Policy Center: "Small is Beautiful": A New Era in China's Overseas Development Finance? by Rebecca Ray: https://bit.ly/3Hnm8iL


JOIN THE DISCUSSION:

Twitter: @ChinaGSProject@stadenesque | @eric_olander |@edwinzhiguoli

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YouTubewww.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

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Françaiswww.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine

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JOIN US ON PATREON!

Become a CAP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CAP Podcast mug!

www.patreon.com/chinaafricaproject

Key Lessons From Indonesia's China-Backed Mining & Infrastructure Ventures25 May 202300:48:46

Indonesia is a pioneer among developing countries for its efforts in moving up the EV battery metal value chain. Whereas most other countries like the DR Congo and Chile export raw commodities that are processed elsewhere, Indonesia now requires all of the nickel mined in the country to be processed locally.

But just as in the DRC where the Chinese dominate the cobalt mining sector, a similar dynamic is now playing out in Indonesia.

CGSP's Southeast Asia Antonia Timmerman joins Eric & Cobus from Jakarta to talk about China's controversial role in the Indonesian mining business plus how a new Chinese-backed high-speed railway is generating more concern than excitement.

SHOW NOTES:

  • Rest of World: The dirty road to clean energy: How China's electric vehicle boom is ravaging the environment by Antonia Timmerman: https://bit.ly/3OGPP3k
  • The China-Global South Project: Why Many Indonesians Think Jokowi Fumbled Chinese High-Speed Rail Diplomacy, Even As It Nears Completion by Antonia Timmerman: https://bit.ly/45vx5K1


JOIN THE DISCUSSION:

Twitter: @ChinaGSProject@stadenesque | @eric_olander | @timmerman91

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject

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FOLLOW CAP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC:

Françaiswww.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine

عربيwww.akhbaralsin-africia.com | @AkhbarAlSinAfr

JOIN US ON PATREON!

Become a CAP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CAP Podcast mug!

www.patreon.com/chinaafricaproject

The Case for More U.S. Soft Power to Counter China in the Global South16 May 202301:04:02

China is one of the very few truly bipartisan issues in Washington today where there is near unanimous consensus that the U.S. must work to counter Beijing's growing influence around the world, especially in developing countries.

The problem is that there is much less agreement on what the U.S. should actually do to respond to the China challenge.

Dan Runde, a senior vice president at the DC-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss his new book that makes the case for why bolstering U.S. soft power is key to persuading Global South countries to favor the United States over China.

SHOW NOTES:

  • Amazon: The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership through Soft Power by Daniel Runde: https://amzn.to/3OiDPVL
  • Amazon: The United States vs. China: The Quest for Global Economic Leadership by C. Fred Bergsten: https://amzn.to/3Mv7ols


JOIN THE DISCUSSION:

Twitter: @ChinaGSProject@stadenesque | @eric_olander | @danrunde

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject

YouTubewww.youtube.com/ChinaAfricaProject

FOLLOW CAP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC:

Françaiswww.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine

عربيwww.akhbaralsin-africia.com | @AkhbarAlSinAfr

JOIN US ON PATREON!

Become a CAP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CAP Podcast mug!

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China's Confusing, Contradictory Policy on Coal Power09 May 202300:46:30

In September 2021, President Xi Jinping announced at the United Nations that China would immediately halt all financing of coal power projects abroad as part of Beijing's broader ambition to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

Since then, the Chinese government has fulfilled that pledge, terminating coal power plant financing deals in Zimbabwe, South Africa, and other countries. But at home, China's policy on coal is very different. In fact, this year alone, the Chinese have approved more than 20gw of new coal power production in just the first three months of the year, more than all of 2021 combined.

Christoph Nedopil Wang, an associate professor at Fudan University and one of the world's leading scholars in Chinese green development finance, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss this striking contradiction in Chinese policy on coal and why China does one thing abroad but another at home.

JOIN THE DISCUSSION:

Twitter: @ChinaGSProject@stadenesque | @eric_olander | @nedopil

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Become a CAP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CAP Podcast mug!

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Update on China's Role in the Burgeoning Global South Debt Crisis25 Apr 202301:02:31

There was a lot of excitement earlier this month at the IMF and World Bank's annual gathering in Washington, D.C. about rumors that the impasse between China and multilateral development banks (MDBs) had been resolved. That stalemate between the Chinese and the MDBs, namely the World Bank, has impeded debt restructuring deals in Sri Lanka, Zambia, and now Ghana among other countries.

But now, two weeks later, there's still no official confirmation from either China or the MDBs that they've settled their differences.

Kevin Gallagher, director of the Global Development Policy Center at Boston University, attended the Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., and joins Eric & Cobus to give an update on the current state of debt relief for some of the world's poorest countries.

JOIN THE DISCUSSION:

Twitter: @ChinaGSProject@stadenesque | @eric_olander | @kevinpgallagher | @gdp_center

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject

YouTube: www.youtube.com/ChinaAfricaProject

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JOIN US ON PATREON!

Become a CAP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CAP Podcast mug!

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U.S.-China Technology Competition in the Global South18 Apr 202300:51:23

The U.S. and China are waging a hard-fought battle today for dominance of global technology standards, particularly in emerging sectors like 5G mobile telecommunications. While China's access to markets in advanced economies is increasingly limited, tech companies like Huawei, ZTE, and Bytedance are rapidly expanding in the Global South.

But the U.S. Congress is adamant to try and limit China's expansion in developing markets by effectively telling countries if you want to work with the U.S., then you can't use Chinese tech.

John Lee is closely following this unfolding competition from Berlin where he's a director at the technology consulting firm East West Futures. John joins Eric & Cobus to discuss what developing countries need to do to avoid becoming collateral damage in the expanding U.S.-China tech duel.

JOIN THE DISCUSSION:

Twitter: @ChinaGSProject@stadenesque | @eric_olander | @J_B_C16

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عربيwww.akhbaralsin-africia.com | @AkhbarAlSinAfr

JOIN US ON PATREON!

Become a CAP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CAP Podcast mug!

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The Risks and Rewards of China's New Mideast Diplomacy13 Apr 202300:55:08

When China announced in March that it had brokered a landmark agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic ties, it took a lot of people by surprise. They just didn't see it coming.

But now, a month later, it appears that the deal is solid. Just last week, the foreign ministers from both countries reconvened in Beijing to finalize the pact and begin the process of reconciliation.

While all of this is very encouraging, William Figueroa, a postdoctoral research associate at the University of Cambridge Centre for Geopolitics and one of the world's foremost Sino-Iran scholars, joins Eric & Cobus to explain why it's still too early to tell if China's new role as the preferred Mideast mediator will succeed.

SHOW NOTES:

  • William Figueroa on Academia.edu: https://bit.ly/3odawsn
  • The Diplomat: China and Iran Since the 25-Year Agreement: The Limits of Cooperation by William Figueroa: https://bit.ly/41mfOjN


JOIN THE DISCUSSION:

Twitter: @ChinaGSProject@stadenesque | @eric_olander | @iranchinaguy

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Françaiswww.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine

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JOIN US ON PATREON!

Become a CAP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CAP Podcast mug!

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What China's Past Tells Us About the Future of its Foreign Policy in Asia04 Apr 202300:54:27

Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim both wrapped up state visits to China last week and their discussions with President Xi Jinping revealed some fascinating linkages between contemporary Chinese foreign policy objectives and Beijing's historical perception of its role as Asia's central power.

Antoine Roth, an international relations scholar at Tohoku University in Japan explores those themes in his new book "A Hierarchical Vision of Order: Understanding Chinese Foreign Policy in Asia." He joins Eric & Cobus from Sendai to discuss what lessons can be drawn from China's diplomatic history in Asia that can inform a better understanding of contemporary trends in Chinese foreign policy in other parts of the world.

SHOW NOTES:

  • Amazon: A Hierarchical Vision of Order: Understanding Chinese Foreign Policy in Asia by Antoine Roth: https://amzn.to/3m532qN


JOIN THE DISCUSSION:

Twitter: @ChinaGSProject@stadenesque | @eric_olander | @antoineroth

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject

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Françaiswww.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine

عربيwww.akhbaralsin-africia.com | @AkhbarAlSinAfr

JOIN US ON PATREON!

Become a CAP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CAP Podcast mug!

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How China is Displacing U.S. Economic Power in Latin America05 Oct 202500:36:02

For centuries, the United States was the undisputed hegemonic power across the Western Hemisphere; however, that is no longer the case today. China is now the largest trading partner for the majority of countries in Latin America and is quickly filling the void left by a decades-long U.S. retrenchment.

In his new book, "Economic Displacement: China and the End of U.S. Primacy in Latin America," Francisco Urdinez, an assistant professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, argues that U.S. neglect of the region has created a critical opening for China to expand both its economic and political influence in the Americas.

Francisco joins Eric from Santiago to discuss the future of the U.S.-China rivalry in Latin America.

SHOW NOTES:

  • Purchase a copy of "Economic Displacement: China and the End of U.S. Primacy in Latin America" and receive a 20% discount through October 31, 2026, by entering the code ECDT25 at checkout: www.cambridge.org/9781009672269

JOIN THE DISCUSSION:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine

JOIN US ON PATREON!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China's Lending Money Again to Countries in the Americas30 Mar 202300:43:10

Chinese lending to countries in Latin America and the Caribbean is gaining momentum. For the second year in a row, China's two largest policy banks have increased lending to countries in the region, albeit in much smaller amounts than what they did a decade ago.

At the same time, there's word that China has spent close to a quarter trillion dollars over the past twenty years to bail out dozens of countries struggling to stay afloat under the weight of such much debt.

Margaret Myers, director of the Asia and Latin America program at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C., and Rebecca Ray, two of the world's leading experts in Chinese overseas development finance, joins Eric to discuss how these two seemingly divergent trends actually align with one another and why the Americas is emerging as a key market for Chinese creditors.

SHOW NOTES:

  • Inter-American Dialogue: At a Crossroads: Chinese Development Finance to Latin America and the Caribbean, 2022 by Margaret Myers and Rebecca Ray: https://bit.ly/3LYKuTK
  • Boston University Global Development Policy Center: "Small is Beautiful": A New Era in China's Overseas Development Finance? by Rebecca Ray: https://bit.ly/3Hnm8iL


JOIN THE DISCUSSION:

Twitter: @ChinaGSProject@stadenesque | @eric_olander | @myersmargaret | @bubeckyray

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject

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عربيwww.akhbaralsin-africia.com | @AkhbarAlSinAfr

JOIN US ON PATREON!

Become a CAP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CAP Podcast mug!

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Reporting Tips for African Journalists Covering China22 Mar 202301:14:05

Reporting on China is difficult even for the most experienced journalist who's spent years living there and speaks the language. So, it's not surprising that reporters in Africa who've had limited exposure to the country often struggle to cover China-related news.

In this special episode produced in conjunction with the Africa-China Reporting Project (ACRP) at Wits University in Johannesburg, Eric is joined by veteran China Watcher, Kaiser Kuo, founder and host of the popular Sinica podcast, to discuss how African journalists can improve their reporting on China.

The interview with Kaiser was recorded during a live online workshop hosted by ACRP Project Coordinator Bongiwe Tutu that included questions from African journalists who participated in the event.

SHOW NOTES:


JOIN THE DISCUSSION:

Twitter: @ChinaGSProject@stadenesque | @eric_olander | @kaiserkuo | @sinicapodcast

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject

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Become a CAP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CAP Podcast mug!

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What Lessons Should the U.S. Take From China's Mideast Diplomatic Breakthrough?16 Mar 202300:18:39

This month's surprise announcement that China brokered the restoration of diplomatic relations between longtime rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia prompted widespread excitement in Beijing and considerable consternation among U.S. conservatives. The implication for both is that China's role in the process symbolized the decline of U.S. influence in the region.

Not so says Mohammed Soliman, one of the leading Arab political analysts in Washington, D.C. based at the Middle East Institute and also a manager at McLarty Associates Middle East North Africa Program. Mohammed joins Eric to explain why he thinks the U.S. should not overreact and what lessons policymakers should take from what happened.

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What to Make of China's Mideast Diplomatic Breakthrough?15 Mar 202300:59:14

New details are emerging about the landmark diplomatic deal brokered by China for Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations. The initial excitement about the prospects for peace between these two Persian Gulf rivals has given way to a more sober assessment that effectively says the agreement is a good first step but that's about it.

The key test is going to be whether both sides are going to pull back from their proxy fights in places like Yemen. Until that's done, it's still too early to be overly optimistic.

But what does this all say about China's emergence as a key diplomatic power broker? Tuvia Gehring, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, and Jacinto Scito, a policy fellow at the London-based Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, are two of the world's foremost scholars on China-Mideast relations and join Eric & Cobus to discuss their reactions to the deal and what it means for China and the wider Middle East.

SHOW NOTES:

  • The Atlantic Council: Full throttle in neutral: China's new security architecture for the Middle East  by Tuvia Gering: https://bit.ly/3mUNmGQ


JOIN THE DISCUSSION:

Twitter: @ChinaGSProject@stadenesque | @eric_olander | @geringtuvia | @jacoposcita

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject

FOLLOW CAP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC:

Françaiswww.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine

عربيwww.akhbaralsin-africia.com | @AkhbarAlSinAfr

JOIN US ON PATREON!

Become a CAP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CAP Podcast mug!

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Latin America Was Once an Afterthought for China... Not Anymore07 Mar 202300:51:04

In just the past twenty years, China's trade with countries in Latin America and the Caribbean surged 26-fold to almost half-a-trillion dollars. The region is also now a major destination for Chinese foreign investment and becoming a critically important new front in China's geopolitical confrontation with the United States.

While there's no dispute that China is now a major player in the region, knowledge about Chinese engagement in the Americas nonetheless remains surprisingly low, particularly among key stakeholders in Latin America.

A new book, China and Latin America: Development, Agency and Geopolitics by two scholars at the London School of Economics (LSE) aims to change that. Álvaro Méndez, director of LSE's Global South Unit and International Relations Professor Chris Alden join Eric & Cobus to discuss why the Americas is now central to China's global strategy.

SHOW NOTES:

  • Amazon: China and Latin America: Development, Agency and Geopolitics by Álvaro Méndez and Chris Alden: https://bit.ly/3ZsO502


JOIN THE DISCUSSION:

Twitter: @ChinaGSProject@stadenesque | @eric_olander | @alvaroimendez

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Wang Huiyao on 'China's Misunderstood Foreign Policy'21 Feb 202300:50:23

Senior-level Chinese stakeholders often contend that one of the main reasons for today's heightened geopolitical tensions between China and the West is due to "misunderstandings" of its foreign policy objectives by outsiders.

Chinese distrust is also fueled by a longstanding feeling of victimization by the West and a sense that they've lost the "narrative battle" in international media.

Wang Huiyao, president and founder of the Beijing-based think tank Centre for China and Globalisation, wants to change that. In a recent column published in the South China Morning Post newspaper, Wang called on Chinese scholars, analysts, and others to "embrace the global internet if it wants to reclaim its narrative."

Wang joins Eric & Cobus to discuss why he thinks China has such a difficult time in communicating its agenda with the rest of the world.

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China, Latin America, and the Rise of a New Non-Aligned Movement16 Feb 202300:53:32

During the first Cold War, a large group of developing countries sought to distance themselves from the ideological battle between the United States and the Soviet Union to create a Non-Aligned Movement.

Today, three decades later, at the dawn of yet another Great Power competition, this time between the U.S. and China, Global South countries are once again saying they don't want any part of it.

Jorge Heine, a former Chilean ambassador to China and now a research professor at Boston University joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the new book he co-edited about how this new movement is taking root in the Americas, Asia, and Africa.

Show Notes:

  • Amazon: Latin American Foreign Policies in the New World Order: The Active Non-Alignment Option: https://amzn.to/3lJrQ7q
  • The Conversation: When two elephants fight: how the global south uses non-alignment to avoid great power rivalries by Adekeye Adebajo: https://bit.ly/3YC3PO7


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How the U.S. Aims to Compete With China in Critical Resource Mining08 Feb 202300:52:07

U.S. officials are speaking out about the urgency to diversify supply chains for critical resources that are now largely dependent on China, particularly rare earths, cobalt, and lithium that are all essential ingredients in manufacturing electric vehicle batteries.

It's a hot topic this week at Africa's largest mining conference that's taking place in Cape Town. Although senior U.S. diplomats speaking at the conference haven't actually said the word "China," the "C" word is nonetheless clearly on their minds.

CGSP Francophone Editor Christian-Geraud Neema, a leading expert in Congolese mining issues, joins Eric to discuss U.S.-China resource competition in Africa and whether Washington's plan to narrow China's lead will actually work.

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What's Driving the Steady Decline in Chinese Overseas Development Lending?01 Feb 202300:49:51

There was a time when Chinese lending to developing countries rivaled the World Bank. Those days are now long gone as Chinese overseas development lending has been on a steady downward trajectory.

New data from Boston University's Global Development Policy Center (GDPC) reports that in 2020-2021, China granted just 28 loan commitments worth just $10.5 billion -- a small fraction of what was lent in the early 2010s.

Rebecca Ray, a senior researcher at GDPC, and Tarela Moses, a data analyst at the center's Global China Initiative join Eric from Boston to discuss the latest trends in Chinese development finance and specifically why Beijing has become much more risk-averse.

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Pepe Zhang on What to Expect This Year in China-Latin America Relations16 Jan 202300:47:26

China's two-way trade with countries in the Americas increased 8% last year to $486 billion, nearly twice the volume of what China does in Africa. South America is now a vital source of food, energy, and strategic minerals for China, while markets like Brazil are attracting record amounts of Chinese investment.

Meantime, China's growing presence in Latin America and the Caribbean region is also making the U.S. increasingly uncomfortable given that many people in Washington, D.C. still believe that the Western hemisphere remains America's traditional sphere of influence.

But despite China's enormous economic engagement in the region and the geopolitical concerns in the U.S., Pepe Zhang, a senior fellow at The Atlantic Council and one of DC's top China-Americas watchers, contends that China's surging influence is still not getting the attention that it deserves. He joins Eric & Cobus from Washington, D.C. to explain why.

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China's Play for Global Governance Leadership30 Sep 202500:57:06

In the weeks since Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the new Global Governance Initiative (GGI) during a speech at the SCO summit in Tianjin, Beijing's propaganda apparatus has been working overtime to build support for the new plan, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and other developing regions.

The GGI is the latest in a series of Chinese global initiatives that also focus on development, human rights, and security, which it's using to stake a larger claim for international leadership at a time when the U.S.-led system is collapsing.

Brian Wong, an assistant professor at Hong Kong University and a leading scholar on Chinese global governance, joins Eric to discuss what Beijing is hoping to accomplish with the GGI and its other governance initiatives.

SHOW NOTES:

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The 2022 Africa-China Year in Review With Gyude Moore23 Dec 202201:08:55

Chinese trade with Africa is widely expected to break yet another record in 2022, while Chinese lending to countries across the continent fell again. Meantime, African leaders this year also forcefully pushed back against both the U.S. and China to avoid becoming collateral damage in their escalating great power struggle.

It was an eventful year indeed for Africa-China relations. Gyude Moore, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development and a prominent African international affairs analyst, joins Eric & Cobus from Washington, D.C. to reflect on the year's key milestones.

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New Report Debunks Chinese Debt Trap Narrative in Sri Lanka20 Dec 202201:03:39

The Chinese debt trap narrative was started based on the purported surrender of the Port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka. When Colombo fell behind in its payments to the China Exim Bank for the loan, the story goes, Beijing seized the port as collateral.

Now, six years later, a pair of Sri Lankan researchers, Umesh Moramudali and Thilina Panduwawala gained access to the original China Exim Bank loan documents for the port and confirmed that the Chinese predatory lending narrative, as it's been told, just isn't true.

The pair join Eric & Cobus to discuss their new report that debunks many of the myths surrounding Chinese lending to Sri Lanka, specifically related to the controversial port.

SHOW NOTES:

  • The China-Africa Research Initiative: Evolution of Chinese Lending to Sri Lanka Since the mid-2000s: Separating Myth from Reality by Umesh Moramudali and Thilina Panduwawala: https://bit.ly/3PF1cHr
  • The Diplomat: Demystifying China's role in Sri Lanka's debt restructuring by Umesh Moramudali and Thilina Panduwawala: https://bit.ly/3v4r3iH


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Bad Takes: What the News Media Got Wrong About Xi's Trip to Saudi Arabia13 Dec 202200:49:46

So much of the international news coverage of Xi Jinping's three-day visit last week to Saudi Arabia was framed in the context of the broader U.S.-China rivalry. The Saudis and other Arab states, according to the prevailing narrative, were pivoting away from their decades-long relationship with the U.S. to embrace China.

But suggesting that some kind of grand geopolitical realignment is taking place in the Middle East is just wrong says Jonathan Fulton, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and one of the world's foremost scholars on China-Mideast relations. 

Jonathan joins Eric & Cobus from Abu Dhabi to explain why journalists should have instead focused more attention on the strategic interests of individual Arab countries.

Show Notes:


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Why U.S. Diplomacy is Struggling to Compete With China in the Global South06 Dec 202201:00:52

40 countries around the world currently do not have U.S. ambassadors. The corner offices have been empty for months, even years at U.S. embassies in major regional powers like India and Saudia Arabia. Even Italy, a G7 country, doesn't have a U.S. ambassador in place.

The hold-up in getting ambassadors confirmed by the Senate is the consequence of Washington's dysfunctional politics that's adversely impacting the U.S. and its effort to compete with China for influence around the world, particularly in developing countries.

Politico's Senior Foreign Affairs Correspondent Nahal Toosi traveled to Panama earlier this year to report on how U.S. diplomacy is struggling to keep up with China's engagement in the region. She joins Eric & Cobus from Washington, D.C. to discuss her special report on the issue.

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Can China's Surveillance State Governance Model Be Exported Abroad?29 Nov 202201:10:05

China has built the world's largest and most intrusive surveillance system to monitor the behavior of its people. Millions of cameras, vast databases, and sophisticated online filters work together to form a seemingly omnipresent matrix that overwatches every aspect of daily life.

While China may have pioneered the use of many of these new technologies, today, they are by no means alone. In fact, Chinese companies are now bringing their technology and surveillance expertise to countries around the world -- particularly in the Global South.

Wall Street Journal reporters Liza Lin and Josh Chin, authors of the new book Surveillance State: Inside China's Quest to Launch a New Era of Social Control, join Eric & Cobus to discuss the appeal of China's surveillance technology and how much of Beijing's model can be replicated in other developing countries.

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A Look Back on a Week of Intense Chinese Diplomacy in Southeast Asia22 Nov 202200:56:46

Chinese President returned home from a week of intense diplomacy in Indonesia and Thailand where he attended a pair of summits and held more than a dozen bilaterals with other international leaders.

Both the G20 Summit in Bali and the subsequent APEC leaders summit in Bangkok served as the first time the President was back on the international stage with some of his Western rivals since the beginning of the pandemic.

Collin Koh, a Research Fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, joins Eric & Cobus to share his views on President Xi's performance and to review what was accomplished at the various summits that took place in Southeast Asia over the past couple of weeks.

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The U.S-China Battle For Ideas in the Global South25 Oct 202201:03:40

Both the United States and China have restructured their respective foreign policy establishments in recent years to be better poised to confront each other.

In the just concluded 20th Party Congress in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping clearly telegraphed a more aggressive stance towards his U.S. rivals. The U.S. articulated much the same in its latest National Security Strategy released in October that clearly named China as its "most consequential geopolitical challenge."

Jake Werner, a research fellow in the East Asia program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, D.C., joins Eric & Cobus to discuss how this rivalry is playing out in the developing world where a battle for ideas is now underway.

SHOW NOTES:

  • Sinification: Chinese experts react to the U.S.'s National Security Strategy by Thomas des Garets Geddes: https://bit.ly/3VWRt23
  • Politico: 'Frustrated and powerless': In fight with China for global influence, diplomacy is America's biggest weakness by Nahal Toosi: https://politi.co/3TTlIVW


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Despite Huge Problems, Pakistan Remains Indispensable to China18 Oct 202201:01:23

It has been a difficult year for China in Pakistan. A burgeoning economic crisis in the South Asian country threatens to undermine the multibillion dollar China Pakistan Economic Corridor development initiative while anti-Chinese terrorism has surged in recent months.

But amid these serious challenges, there's no indication that ties between Beijing and Islamabad have strained. Ammar Malik, a senior research scientist at AidData, closely follows Sino-Pakistani relations and joins Eric & Cobus to explain why this relationship is so durable.

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China and India's Steadily Deteriorating Relationship11 Oct 202200:54:14

It wasn't that long ago that many people thought the longtime rivalry between India and China had begun to subside. In fact, Xi Jinping traveled to India in 2019, his second visit as president, for a profile, seemingly amicable summit with Narendra Modi. But a lot can change in three years.

Today, ties between the two Asian giants are bad and getting worse. Both countries are locked in a bitter stand-off along their disputed border high above in the Himalayas and are engaged in seemingly daily disputes over trade, technology, and geopolitical issues.

And experts like The Hindu newspaper's China correspondent Ananth Krishnan contend there's no indication the situation is going to improve anytime soon. Ananth joins Eric & Cobus from Beijing to explain why ties between these two countries have soured so much.

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What Does Kenya's SGR Tell Us About the Future of Chinese Railway Development in the Global South04 Oct 202200:46:49

The Chinese-financed Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) in Kenya is one of the flagship projects of the Belt and Road Initiative. But the SGR like other Chinese-sponsored railway projects elsewhere in the Global South also serves as a prime example of the risks to developing countries in taking on so much debt.

Keren Zhu, a global China post-doctoral researcher at Boston University's Global Development Policy Center, together with two other scholars recently completed a first-of-its-kind study that explores the winners and losers in the Kenyan SGR project.

She joins Eric & Cobus to share the findings of their research and what it says about the future of the BRI.

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China-India Relations Remain Fragile Despite Warming Ties23 Sep 202500:35:56

It wasn't that long ago when the leaders from India and China couldn't even look at each other when they were in the same room. Today, the situation is very different. Ties between the two Asian powers have improved dramatically from a few years ago, when a violent conflict along their disputed border sent relations into a deep freeze.

But even though China and India have resolved a number of their differences in recent years, serious problems persist, none more so than their disputed border that remains one of the most heavily armed frontiers in the world.

Professor Jabin Jacob, associate professor at the Shiv Nadar Institute of Eminence and one of India's foremost China scholars, joins Eric to discuss why resolving the border dispute, in particular, is going to be very difficult.

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Why the U.S. And Israel Are Not Aligned on China27 Sep 202200:57:10

Israel and China are reportedly in the final stages of negotiating a free trade agreement that both sides say will be done before the end of the year. This may come as a surprise to some given how relations between the two countries have been a bit rocky this past year over issues related to Taiwan, Xinjiang, and pressure from the U.S.

But Israeli officials have made it clear to the U.S. that while they understand why Beijing makes them nervous, the Jewish State simply does not share those same concerns.

Alexander Pevzner, an adjunct lecturer at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy at Reichman University near Tel Aviv, joins Eric & Cobus to provide an update on the current state of Sino-Israeli ties and why the U.S. and Israel are not fully aligned when it comes to China.

CORRECTION: In this episode, Eric stated there are now direct flights between Saudi Arabia and Israel which is not correct. Instead, the two countries agreed that Saudi Arabia would open its airspace to flights to/from Israel.

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Navigating the Belt & Road in SE Asia With a New Digital Toolkit20 Sep 202200:57:53

October marks the 9th anniversary of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and after all these years, nearly a decade later, many people around the world are still trying to figure out what exactly the BRI is. What is certain, though, is that China has pulled back considerably on BRI-related financing in many parts of the world, particularly in Africa and the Americas.

But in Asia, it's a different story. Chinese lenders are still plowing billions of dollars to build badly-needed infrastructure and that prompted the New York-based Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) to try and help stakeholders on all sides with a new BRI digital tool kit.

Blake Berger, ASPI associate director, was on the team that built the new toolkit and joins Eric and Cobus to explain what it is and how it's intended to be used.

SHOW NOTES:


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Introducing the New China-Global South Podcast16 Sep 202201:11:13

Every week, The China-Global South Podcast will explore timely issues surrounding China's engagement in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and other developing regions. Hosted by China-Global South Editor in Chief Eric Olander in Vietnam and Managing Editor Cobus van Staden in South Africa, this new program will highlight insights and ideas from leading experts in the Global South.

To help kick off the show, Eric & Cobus are joined by Kaiser Kuo, host of the venerable Sinica Podcast, to discuss what motivated the team to launch this new program and what they're hoping it will achieve.

THIS WEEK'S RECOMMENDATIONS:

ERIC:

  • Gyude Moore, Senior Policy Fellow at the Center for Global Development: @gyude_moore
  • Hannah Ryder, CEO of Development Reimagined: @hmryder
  • Ovigue Eguegu, Policy Analyst at Development Reimagined: @ovigweeguegu
  • Christian-Geraud Neema, Francophone Editor at the China-Global South Project: @christiangeraud

COBUS:

  • Amazon: The Specter of Global China: Politics, Labor, and Foreign Investment in Africa by Ching Kwan Lee: https://amzn.to/3RMTKu8


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China's New Ambitions in the South Pacific20 Jun 202200:37:50

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's recent South Pacific tour put the region in play as the latest venue for Great Power political rivalries. But even though the ten Pacific Island Countries (PIC) are among the smallest in the world, they came together as a block and dealt Wang a very rare diplomatic defeat when they rebuffed his wide-ranging security and development proposal.

Tim Bryar, founder and editor of the blog Oceania Hypothesis, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss why China is now so keen on expanding its influence in the South Pacific and how he thinks the legacy powers in the United States, New Zealand, and Australia will respond.

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Why Chinese Companies Are Pouring Money Into Brazil16 Sep 202500:35:01

China's economic ties with Brazil are booming, and 2024 saw a stunning 113% jump in Chinese investment, totaling $4.2 billion across 39 projects, the highest number ever, according to a new report by the Brazil-China Business Council.

From renewable energy and oil to mining and automotive manufacturing, Chinese companies are pouring capital into Brazil's economy. This investment boom, though, comes at a sensitive time as China is moving aggressively to reduce its reliance on the U.S., particularly in the food sector.

Tulio Cariello, the Council's director of content and research, joins Eric to explain what's driving the surge of Chinese FDI in Brazil and whether this upswing is expected to continue.

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India-China Reset? Modi and Xi Test a Fragile Rapprochement10 Sep 202500:40:05

The reset between India and China appears to be holding. Nearly two weeks after President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi met on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Tianjin, five years of frigid ties between the two Asian powers are steadily thawing. 

However, it will take more than summits and statements to rebuild trust, particularly among Indian policymakers who remain wary of China's close ties with Pakistan and Beijing's broader ambitions across South Asia.

Constantino Xavier, a senior fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress in New Delhi and co-author of an in-depth report on Chinese engagement in South Asia, joins Eric to discuss how Modi aims to balance ties with China, the U.S. and Russia while preserving India's legendary non-alignment strategy.

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The Trump, Xi Foreign Policy Duel in Southeast Asia09 Sep 202500:38:11

Two sharply contrasting foreign policy visions emerged this week from China and the United States. In Beijing, President Xi Jinping outlined an agenda in talks with fellow BRICS leaders that directly challenged Donald Trump's "America First" doctrine, urging instead for stronger multilateral cooperation.

Meanwhile in Washington, reports surfaced of a potential overhaul in U.S. security strategy, shifting the Pentagon's focus away from countering China abroad toward reinforcing defenses at home and across the Western Hemisphere.

No other region around the world has as much at stake in this duel as Southeast Asia, effectively the frontline in the simmering great power rivalry. Dylan Loh, an associate professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore and a leading expert on Chinese foreign policy, joins Eric to discuss how Southeast Asian policymakers are responding to the mounting pressure coming from both Washington and Beijing.

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China's Small State Diplomacy Strategy in Latin America04 Sep 202500:42:29

While most of the world's attention at this week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin was on Xi Jinping's meetings with leaders from the big powers, namely India and Russia, the Chinese President also spent considerable time with heads of state from many of the world's smallest countries, like the Maldives and Nepal, among others.

This is part of China's longstanding small-state diplomacy strategy, where Beijing cultivates relationships with these countries in the Global South through high-level gatherings and the same diplomatic pomp that leaders from more powerful countries receive when they visit the Chinese capital.

Alonso Illueca, CGSP's non-resident fellow for Latin America, joins Eric to discuss his latest article on how China's small-state outreach is playing out on the tiny Caribbean island of Dominica (population 75,000) and why it's so effective.

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SCO Summit Review: Xi, Modi & Putin Present a United Front03 Sep 202500:42:04

This week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin signaled China's ambition to redefine global governance. Leaders from more than 20 countries endorsed the Tianjin Declaration, pressing for a multipolar order, tighter security cooperation, and expanded economic integration.

The joint statement also went further than past communiqués, condemning Israel's actions in Gaza and reflecting the bloc's growing willingness to weigh in on global conflicts.

Eric & Cobus discuss the powerful optics that emerged from this year's gathering, which appeared specifically choreographed to send a clear, unmistakable message to U.S. President Donald Trump.

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SCO Preview: Modi Heads to China Amid U.S. Tariff Shock29 Aug 202500:37:24

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi left Northeast Asia this week, embarking on a two-stop trip that includes Japan and then China, where he will participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which begins on Sunday.

The PM's visit comes amid a full-scale implosion of India's ties with the United States, following Washington's imposition this week of a massive 50% tariff on all Indian exports to the U.S., the highest duties on any country in Asia, except China.

Derek Grossman, a professor at the University of Southern California and a leading Asia-Pacific affairs analyst in the United States, joins Eric from Los Angeles to discuss the high-stakes politics at this weekend's SCO gathering and whether Donald Trump's actions will coax India and China to reconcile.

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Jane Perlez on the New Era of U.S.-China Competition and Rivalry22 Dec 202500:40:02

The increasingly acrimonious U.S.-China relationship is the defining trend of this era, upending global politics, economics, and security, especially across the Global South. Countries that have worked hard from having to pick sides in this new competition, may longer have that luxury as this rivalry intensifies.

Jane Perlez, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and a former longtime China correspondent for The New York Times, has been covering this story since the 1980s. Now, together with acclaimed Harvard University China scholar Rana Mitter, she's launched season 3 of her award-winning podcast Face Off: The U.S. vs. China, where they explore the key trends reshaping ties between these two powers.

Jane joins Eric from Sydney to discuss the forces driving this rivalry: leadership personality, domestic pressure, technological competition, and the tightening link between geopolitics and economic strategy.

📌 Key topics explored:

  • How China defines and uses foreign aid
  • Aid vs development finance in China's system
  • The role of Chinese development banks
  • Myths around "free" Western and Chinese aid
  • Aid as diplomatic influence
  • China's engagement with regional blocs (AU, ASEAN)
  • What China's aid strategy means for the West

Show Notes:

Listen to season 2 of Face Off: The U.S. vs. China on Spotify

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China and the Middle East: The Future in Three Scenarios28 Aug 202500:44:47

China's rapidly expanding presence in the Middle East has sparked a mix of anxiety and excitement, depending on one's perspective. Washington regards Beijing's support of Iran and the Palestinian cause, among other things, as key threats to its strategic interests. While Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and other regional actors see Beijing as a valuable economic partner.

A new book by two leading China-Mideast scholars, Mohamed Alsudairi at the Australian National University and Andrea Ghiselli from the University of Exeter, explores the future of Chinese engagement in the region by laying out three possible scenarios

🔹 Scenario 1: Continuity — China stays focused on trade and investment, without major security commitments.
🔹 Scenario 2: Expansion — Beijing and regional elites push for a deeper Chinese role in governance and security.
🔹 Scenario 3: Discord — mismatched expectations fuel uncertainty and instability.

Mohammed and Andrea join Eric to discuss their new book and which of the three forecasts they think is most likely to happen.

SHOW NOTES:

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China Moves to Bolster Pakistan Ties Amid U.S. Rapprochement20 Aug 202500:41:58

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in Islamabad on Wednesday for a three-day visit, following a high-level stop in India earlier in the week, where he met both Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

His trip to Pakistan comes at a pivotal moment. Islamabad has recently repaired relations with the United States after more than a decade of estrangement, just as Washington's ties with India have soured.

Eram Ashraf, a UK-based China-Pakistani relations scholar and author of a forthcoming book on Sino-Pakistani security ties during the Cold War, joins Eric to discuss how Beijing is going to maneuver in South Asia's rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

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China's Happy With Its Iran Ties Just the Way They Are06 Aug 202500:44:20

There's been a lot of speculation in the aftermath of the brief U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran that Beijing would step in to bolster its longtime partners in Tehran. Rumors have been bouncing around that China will sell Iran advanced fighter jets and help rebuild the country's ballistic missile program, among other things.

There is no evidence, though, to support any of those claims.

Instead, China seems to be taking a more hands-off approach, providing Iran with bountiful moral support while remaining a loyal oil customer, but little else.

Bill Figueroa, a leading Iran-China scholar and an assistant professor at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, joins Eric to explain why China appears to be satisfied with the current state of relations with Iran.

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