Screwworm has moved from threat to confirmed reality — with cases now verified in both Texas and New Mexico, Mexico has suspended live animal imports from the United States. This week's episode of Cattle Market Guys breaks down what that means for producers and the broader cattle trade. Brock and Jim open with the market snapshot for the week of June 12, 2026, walking through feeder steer prices across weight classes, flagging the thin volume that makes this week's prints unreliable benchmarks, and sharing model forecasts that point to modest price softening in the near term. The cash-to-futures relationship gets its own spotlight, with CME live cattle futures running at a notable discount to cash markets — a dynamic that's been providing upward price support and signaling that traders see staying power in current cash strength. The June WASDE report projects steady prices for both cattle and corn, offering some stability amid broader uncertainty. The episode also examines the global trade pressures stacking up around the industry: Russian strikes on Ukraine's Black Sea port infrastructure are threatening grain export flows with downstream implications for US feed costs, while US beef exports continue to lag year-over-year with China's absence as a buyer cited as a key driver. Jim draws on firsthand experience from the 1988 drought and trade disruptions to put the current moment in historical perspective — and to caution against reactive decisions when multiple headwinds hit at once.

New World Screwworm has been confirmed in multiple Texas counties, and it's moving fast — at least four cases across Zavala and La Salle counties in a matter of days, triggering a livestock quarantine, a disaster declaration, and immediate ripple effects across both the cash and futures markets. This is the most significant livestock biosecurity threat to hit the U.S. in decades, and ranchers need to understand what it means right now. In this Tuesday Market Update for June 9, 2026, Brock and Jim break down the week's cattle market numbers, including strong early-week prices in the 500–549 lb. steer class at $475.80/cwt and a notable gap opening up between cash and futures markets. They walk through model forecasts for the next one to four weeks and explain why the heavier weight classes are flashing a timing signal for producers with flexibility. The episode digs deep into the screwworm outbreak — how it entered the U.S., how quickly it's spreading geographically, and why Jim's firsthand experience checking cattle in Presidio County in 1976 still carries hard lessons for ranchers in affected areas today. Brock and Jim also cover the trade disruptions flowing from the outbreak, including border restrictions with both Mexico and Canada, new tariff uncertainty across 60 countries, and what Brazil's clean FMD status signals about competitive dynamics in global protein markets.

The Department of Justice has formally expanded its antitrust investigation into Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef over beef pricing practices. This development comes as Tyson Foods reports its beef division is losing up to $500 million despite raising overall profit outlook. Market analysts suggest this investigation could significantly impact cattle prices and producer relationships with packers in the coming months. In this critical Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim analyze the latest cattle market data showing a meaningful slide of roughly $16 per hundredweight for 600-649 pound steers over the past two weeks. They examine the substantial premium for lighter cattle, currently running at approximately $48 per hundredweight over heavier cattle, indicating feedlots remain hungry for placement cattle despite market pressures. The hosts dive deep into how packer losses are affecting slaughter volumes and market dynamics, with Brock noting that "packers are taking on larger inventories rather than moving cattle through at a pace that would support prices." Jim shares personal historical perspective from similar market conditions in the late 1990s, providing context for today's challenges. They also address how drought conditions threaten the ongoing herd rebuilding efforts, particularly in the Southern Plains where El Niño patterns are expected to keep regions drier than normal through summer. On a more positive note, the episode covers significant international trade developments, including restored duty-free access for U.S. beef in the United Kingdom. The hosts discuss how the U.S. Meat Export Federation's promotional events in London could help create demand at the export level, potentially supporting domestic prices. Brock and Jim conclude with practical market forecasts for May, offering guidance for producers navigating these complex market conditions.

Cattle futures have risen for five consecutive sessions amid growing concerns over the New World Screwworm outbreak, with emergency treatments now authorized by the FDA. The USDA has broken ground on a sterile fly facility in Texas as part of containment efforts, while expectations for reopening the US-Mexico border to cattle imports continue to fade. This health crisis is creating significant market volatility, with historical parallels suggesting producers should carefully time their marketing decisions during fear-driven price spikes. In this Week in Review episode, Brock and Jim analyze the complex factors driving current cattle market dynamics. They begin with a detailed market snapshot showing medium and large frame steers (600-649 lbs) trading at $415.51/cwt, while lighter cattle command significantly higher prices at $463.51/cwt. Their four-week forecast suggests potential softening for heavier cattle before a modest bounce in week four. The hosts dive deep into the screwworm situation, examining how emergency regulatory actions are impacting the market. Jim shares historical context from a 1992 outbreak, offering valuable perspective on how temporary price spikes during health scares can quickly reverse. The episode also explores the unusually narrow Choice-Select spread that recently inverted for the first time since 2009, signaling potential shifts in consumer behavior and feeding strategies. Border policies and international trade round out the discussion, with Brock and Jim examining how the continued border closure affects domestic feeder cattle supply. They connect global events, including rejected soybean meal shipments in Europe, to potential impacts on U.S. feed costs. The episode concludes with guidance for producers navigating this complex, news-driven market that features both promising fundamentals and significant risks heading into summer.

Record-breaking ground beef demand and suspended Mexican cattle imports are creating a perfect storm for elevated cattle prices, with six-weight steers trading at $415.51/cwt. Despite forecasts showing some softening in heavier cattle over the coming weeks, the market fundamentals remain strong heading into summer. Meanwhile, University of Nebraska researchers have developed a promising H5N1 vaccine for cattle that could transform biosecurity protocols. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim deliver a comprehensive analysis of current cattle market conditions, including detailed price breakdowns across weight classes and a four-week price forecast. They examine why lighter cattle are commanding significant premiums and how cash prices improving alongside larger slaughter volume signals genuine demand growth. The hosts dive into critical animal health developments, discussing not only the groundbreaking H5N1 vaccine research but also key stress points in beef-on-dairy calf production and the concerning trend of increasing mature cow size (averaging 7.7 pounds per year over sixty years). With a strong El Niño forecast for late 2026, producers need to consider how larger cows and potential feed cost increases could impact profitability. The episode concludes with an optimistic outlook on beef demand, highlighting record per capita ground beef supplies and how changing consumer preferences—even among those using GLP-1 medications—may actually benefit quality beef producers. Jim shares colorful historical perspective on how the industry has evolved since the lean-focused 1980s, reminding listeners that market cycles eventually come full circle.

**Cattle futures slide for six consecutive sessions as demand concerns grow for high-priced beef. Front-month contracts settle at $374.15/cwt while cash markets see northern cattle trading down $2 from last week at $246 live and $386 dressed. Is this the beginning of a deeper price correction or just a temporary market adjustment? Brock and Jim analyze what this means for producers heading into summer.** In this week's market wrap-up, the Cattle Market Guys examine the technical selling and profit-taking pushing cattle futures lower across multiple weight classes. Brock breaks down the numbers showing 600-649 weight steers settling at $421.89/cwt (down from $424.06) and 500-549 weights at $470.58/cwt (slightly off from $471.98 last week). Jim shares valuable perspective from his experience during similar market corrections in 1998, offering practical wisdom for navigating current uncertainties. The episode delves into international trade challenges affecting U.S. beef exports, particularly the continued closure of the Chinese market. While variety meat exports show growth, Brazil's emerging dominance as a global protein supplier amid market volatility creates new competitive pressures. The hosts discuss how these shifting trade patterns impact domestic producers and strategies for maintaining competitiveness in alternative markets. Health concerns take center stage as Brock and Jim address the alarming detection of New World Screwworm within 62 miles of the Texas border. They detail the USDA's response, including plans for a new sterile fly production facility, while Jim recounts his firsthand experience fighting a similar outbreak in 1984. The discussion emphasizes biosecurity measures, community cooperation, and vigilance as essential tools for producers facing potential disease threats. Throughout this comprehensive market analysis, the Cattle Market Guys provide actionable insights for cattle producers navigating these challenging conditions. From price forecasts to disease prevention strategies, this episode delivers the market intelligence needed to make informed decisions during uncertain times.

BREAKING MARKET ALERT: Cattle prices holding strong despite forecasted volatility ahead! While 600-649 pound steers maintain strength at $421.89/cwt, experts predict a rollercoaster pattern over the next four weeks with prices dipping before climbing back to $423.63/cwt. The latest USDA Cattle on Feed report shows tightening supplies that could support stronger prices through 2026. In this week's Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim deliver a comprehensive analysis of the cattle market landscape heading into late April 2026. The hosts break down current cash market strength across multiple weight classes, with 600-649 pound steers trading at $421.89/cwt and lighter 500-549 pound steers commanding $470.58/cwt. They examine the slight gap between front-month futures at $374.15 and next-month futures at $372.35, signaling potential market adjustments ahead. The episode features an in-depth discussion of the April 2026 USDA Cattle on Feed report, which revealed a 1% year-over-year decline in cattle inventory to 11.58 million head. Brock explains how these tighter supplies typically support stronger prices, though variables like feed costs and competing protein markets could influence the outlook. Jim shares historical perspective on market volatility, recounting lessons from past market swings and emphasizing the importance of quality production regardless of market conditions. Environmental challenges facing producers take center stage in the final segment, with drought conditions worsening by 1.6% across the lower 48 states just last week. The hosts discuss the impact of below-average snowpack in western states and a potential screwworm resurgence that has prompted USDA preparation. Jim offers valuable insight from his experience during the devastating 1988 drought, emphasizing the timeless wisdom of protecting superior genetics when facing environmental challenges and the importance of planning ahead in cattle operations.

**Front-month cattle futures hit contract high of $251.78, soaring $5.57 week-over-week! Heavy volume trading continues with 600-649lb steers moving at $420.81/cwt while lighter weights command premium prices. Packers are bidding aggressively as beef quality trends shift dramatically toward Prime and Choice grades.** In this week's market wrap-up, Brock and Jim analyze the striking upward movement in cattle futures alongside current cash market dynamics. The hosts dive deep into price differentials between weight classes, with 500-549lb steers fetching $468.74/cwt compared to heavier steers at $420.81/cwt despite significantly higher volume in the heavier category. The episode explores the impressive rally in futures contracts, with June through August contracts rising between $2.57 and $2.87. Brock and Jim discuss the strategic implications for producers considering hedge contracts versus waiting for potential continued strength, with Jim sharing a valuable historical perspective from the market crash of '87. The conversation highlights the importance of maintaining a steady approach during market volatility rather than making panic-driven decisions. Quality grade distribution takes center stage as Brock explains the ongoing shift toward Prime and Choice beef production, with Select grades continuing to decline. The hosts examine how this quality transformation is rewarding producers who invest in genetics and nutrition programs capable of delivering premium grades. Jim offers insights from decades of experience watching the market gradually recognize and reward higher marbling. The discussion concludes with crucial analysis of consumer affordability concerns as beef prices have jumped 16% year-over-year. Brock and Jim warn producers to watch for potential demand erosion heading into grilling season, with Jim recounting lessons from 1996 when retail price resistance eventually impacted ranch-level economics. The hosts emphasize how market signals flow from retail counters back to ranches, making consumer trends vital information for strategic planning.

The recent labor agreement at the JBS USA Greeley beef facility has ended three weeks of market uncertainty that was creating ripple effects throughout the cattle supply chain. This resolution highlights how labor disputes in meatpacking directly impact producer profits when cattle can't move on schedule. Brock and Jim analyze what this settlement means for market stability heading into summer 2026. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim break down current market conditions with feeder cattle showing mixed results across weight classes. The 600-649 pound category held steady at $420.81/cwt, while lighter feeders in the 500-549 pound range traded higher at $468.74/cwt, showing 1-2% strength compared to March averages. The hosts analyze how these price variations reflect seasonal demand patterns and buyer strategies. The conversation explores broader economic challenges facing cattle producers, including rising inflation and worsening drought conditions across the Lower 48. Jim shares his experience from the devastating drought of '88 to illustrate how weather extremes force difficult decisions about herd management and financial planning. The hosts emphasize the importance of maintaining cash reserves and making strategic decisions during market downturns. Rounding out the episode, Brock and Jim discuss exciting developments with the new "Product of USA" labeling rules requiring beef to be born, raised and processed domestically. They note the impressive strength in live cattle futures trading between $240-245/cwt (up $30 from last year) and feeder futures ranging from $365-370/cwt (up $70 year-over-year). The hosts emphasize how quality premiums are creating opportunities for producers with superior genetics and management practices.

BREAKING: Cattle prices hit record highs with 600-649lb steers averaging $417.13/cwt, up from $414.88 last week with heavy volume exceeding 6,600 head. Lighter steers (500-549lb) command even higher prices at $464.39/cwt, showing remarkable stability as we move into spring 2026. The USDA's April WASDE report projects these robust pricing trends will continue through much of the year despite expected increases in beef imports. In this week's market wrap-up, Brock and Jim analyze the current state of cattle markets, discussing the impressive price stability across key weight ranges and what it means for producers. They examine the latest futures contracts, with front-month sitting at $364.63 and next month at $362.54, highlighting the optimism reflected in physical markets compared to futures prices. The hosts delve into international trade developments, particularly the potential reopening of the U.S.-Mexico border for cattle trade within the next 2-4 weeks. This border has been closed since November 2024, and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins' announcement could signal significant changes for domestic supply and pricing. Jim shares his experience from previous border closures, offering valuable perspective on adapting to sudden market disruptions. The episode concludes with an examination of recent USDA reports, including marketing numbers showing 1.522 million head marketed in February and growing drought concerns. The Drought Monitor reports a 0.2% increase in affected areas across the lower 48 states and a concerning 9.2% year-over-year increase. Brock and Jim discuss practical strategies for producers to navigate these challenges while maintaining profitability in today's dynamic cattle market environment.

The three-week strike at JBS's Greeley, Colorado meatpacking plant has officially ended, with operations resuming April 7th. During the walkout involving nearly 3,800 workers, cattle backlogs built up significantly, forcing packer buyers to aggressively add inventory at higher prices last week. The resolution comes as lighter weight cattle continue their steady upward price trend, a welcome development for producers navigating supply chain disruptions. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim provide a comprehensive analysis of the current cattle market, highlighting the standout performance of 500-549 pound steers, which are now averaging $464.39 per hundredweight—a significant increase from previous weeks. They examine how futures prices are lagging behind the cash market and discuss market volume trends showing heavier movement in the 600-649 pound category. The hosts dive deep into the JBS strike resolution, explaining the ripple effects of processing disruptions on the entire supply chain. Jim shares his personal experience with a similar 1995 IBP strike, offering practical advice for producers on maintaining contingency plans for market access during labor disputes. The episode also covers the impressive increase in USDA Prime grade percentages, which have risen from 9.2% in 2023 to 14% in 2026, reflecting advancements in genetics and feeding strategies. Weather concerns take center stage in the final segment, with drought conditions worsening across 17% more of the lower 48 states compared to last year. Brock and Jim discuss the potential impact of reduced corn acreage (95.3 million acres anticipated for 2026) on feed costs, while Jim recounts lessons from the devastating drought of 1988 when he was forced to sell 40% of his herd. The hosts emphasize the importance of proactive planning to mitigate weather impacts on cattle operations.

Cattle markets show resilience in lighter weight categories despite broader market pressures, with 500-549 lb steers holding at $460.74/cwt - up from mid-March levels. However, the six-weight category continues its gradual decline from early March highs, now settling at $413.39/cwt. This divergence between weight classes, coupled with futures trailing live cattle prices, signals ongoing market uncertainty as the industry moves into the post-Easter period.In this week's episode of Tuesday Market Update, hosts Brock and Jim provide comprehensive analysis of current cattle market conditions, diving deep into price trends across different weight categories and exploring the factors driving market movements. Their discussion includes detailed price comparisons, volume data, and forward-looking predictions for both light and heavy cattle.The conversation takes a crucial turn toward environmental challenges, with particular focus on the alarming 2.5% increase in drought conditions across the Lower 48 states in just one week. Brock and Jim examine the implications for producers, especially those in the southern plains, and share strategic insights for managing resources during increasingly difficult conditions.The hosts round out the episode with an important discussion of global trade dynamics, analyzing the significant 18% year-over-year increase in beef imports and its impact on domestic markets. This examination includes valuable historical perspective from Jim's decades of experience, helping listeners understand how international market forces continue to shape local pricing and marketing decisions in today's cattle industry.

A confirmed New World Screwworm detection in South Texas sent feeder cattle futures tumbling this week — and the market reacted exactly the way markets always do: fear first, facts later. For producers across the Southwest, this isn't an abstract biosecurity concern. It's a direct threat to cattle movement, market confidence, and trade relationships. On this week's episode of Cattle Market Guys, Brock and Jim break down a feeder market that has quietly shed significant ground over the past month, with medium and large frame one steers in the 500–549 pound class dropping roughly $20 per hundredweight over four weeks. Model projections suggest continued softness in the near term, particularly in the six-weight class, before a modest recovery. The screwworm confirmation — and the USDA's initial denial followed by rapid reversal — is identified as a key driver of that market uncertainty. Brock and Jim also cover a genuinely encouraging export story, with Caribbean and Central American beef demand posting record first-quarter values, led by strong performances in the Dominican Republic and Guatemala. On the trade policy front, the episode examines proposed U.S. tariffs targeting Brazil and sixty other economies, and flags a development with long-range implications: China's decision to lift FMD restrictions on all of Brazil, opening a major new channel for one of America's chief competitors in global beef markets.

Global beef markets face potential disruption as Australian production heads toward record levels in 2026. With U.S. beef imports already up 18% year-over-year and Australian exports poised to surge, domestic producers are bracing for increased competition. This week's episode of Cattle Market Guys examines how these international developments could impact U.S. cattle prices and what strategies producers should consider.In this comprehensive market review, hosts Brock and Jim analyze current cattle prices across weight ranges, with six-weight steers holding steady at $413.31/cwt and five-weights showing a slight decline to $455.21/cwt. They explore how shrinking show lists and tight packer margins are influencing market dynamics, while cash-fed cattle trade at $235/cwt and choice boxed beef rises to $400.11.The discussion delves into emerging consumer trends, particularly the potential impact of GLP-1 weight-loss medications on beef consumption patterns. Brock and Jim examine how changing dietary habits and the growing importance of supply chain relationships could reshape producer strategies in the months ahead.Drawing from decades of market experience, the hosts provide historical context for today's challenges, comparing current conditions to past market cycles and offering practical insights for producers navigating an increasingly complex global marketplace. Their analysis emphasizes the importance of staying adaptable and maintaining a strategic approach to marketing in the face of international competition and evolving consumer preferences.

Record-high retail beef prices are testing consumer demand limits, with Choice cuts hitting $10.12/lb and all-fresh beef averaging $9.64/lb in February 2026. These unprecedented price levels raise critical questions about potential demand erosion and protein substitution effects. Market experts Brock Peters and Jim Thompson explore whether these prices are sustainable or if the industry is approaching a tipping point that could trigger a market correction.In this week's market update, Brock and Jim analyze the latest cattle market data, including notable trends in the 600-649 lb steer category, which saw prices climb to $413.31/cwt. The hosts examine current futures contracts and processing margins, providing context for what these indicators suggest about market direction.The episode delivers an in-depth look at processing capacity challenges and their impact on the supply chain, drawing from historical examples to illustrate potential risks. Discussion includes analysis of the March Cattle on Feed report, which shows feedlot inventories at 11.55 million head, representing a slight year-over-year decrease and its implications for future price movements.Brock and Jim conclude with a comprehensive examination of retail beef prices and consumer behavior patterns, sharing insights from past market cycles and identifying key signals that could indicate shifting demand. Their analysis helps producers understand the delicate balance between maintaining strong prices and retaining consumer loyalty in an increasingly competitive protein market.

Cattle markets face significant downward pressure as prices for 500-549lb steers drop over $14 in just two weeks, now sitting at $453.46/cwt. This concerning trend is matched by weakening cash trades across the country, with live cattle trading at $235/cwt and dressed cattle at $372/cwt. The market softness heading into spring has producers on edge as multiple factors contribute to the ongoing price decline.In this week's comprehensive market review, hosts Brock and Jim analyze the current state of cattle markets, examining both immediate price pressures and forward projections across weight categories. They dive deep into volume movements, revealing interesting dynamics between lighter and heavier weight cattle, with heavier steers showing potential support despite overall market weakness.The episode takes a serious turn as the hosts discuss an emerging threat to U.S. cattle operations: New World Screwworms. Drawing from historical experience, they outline critical preventative measures producers need to implement immediately, especially in states bordering tropical climates. Jim shares firsthand experience from past screwworm outbreaks, offering valuable insights into effective management strategies.The conversation then shifts to the devastating impact of wildfires and drought conditions in the Western U.S., where over 700,000 acres have burned in Nebraska alone. Brock and Jim examine how these natural disasters compound existing market pressures, forcing difficult decisions about herd management and feeding strategies. The episode concludes with a detailed analysis of market volatility, processor margins, and retail pricing disconnects, offering producers practical guidance for navigating these challenging conditions.

Breaking news from the Texas Panhandle as a new respiratory pathogen threatens feedlot operations across the region. This emerging health challenge poses significant risks to cattle performance and profitability, with producers scrambling to update vaccination protocols and management strategies. The timing couldn't be worse, as the industry simultaneously grapples with major processing disruptions, including a worker strike at the crucial JBS Greeley facility.In this packed episode of Cattle Market Guys, hosts Brock and Jim dive deep into three critical issues shaping the cattle markets this week. The discussion begins with a comprehensive market update, revealing a cooling trend in cattle prices across weight classes, with 600-649 pound steers closing at $413.13/cwt, down from previous weeks but with promising four-week forecasts.The conversation then turns to the emerging health crisis in Texas feedlots, drawing on Jim's historical perspective from similar outbreaks in the 1990s. Brock and Jim examine prevention strategies, diagnostic approaches, and the potential economic impact on operations caught unprepared. The hosts emphasize the critical importance of proactive management and updated protocols in managing this new threat.The episode concludes with an analysis of the processing sector's challenges and opportunities, including the ongoing JBS Greeley strike's impact on the supply chain. Despite these hurdles, there's positive news on the export front, with variety meat exports hitting record values exceeding $415 per head of fed slaughter. The hosts explore how these various factors interact to influence market dynamics and what producers should watch for in the coming weeks.

A screwworm detection just 31 miles from the US border has USDA on high alert — and for a cattle herd already at historically tight supply levels, the timing couldn't be worse. If this parasite crosses into the United States, the damage to an already fragile rebuilding cycle could be severe. In this Tuesday market update, Brock and Jim break down a meaningful two-week price pullback in feeder steers, with five-weight cattle dropping roughly $18 and six-weights falling approximately $20 from early May levels. Forward projections point to additional softness in the two-week window — particularly a sharp dip on six-weight steers to $378.44 per hundredweight — before prices begin to recover heading into the four-week mark. Beyond the weekly numbers, Brock and Jim examine where the US cattle herd stands in the broader cattle cycle. The herd is entering early-stage expansion, but historical patterns show that slaughter volumes and beef production typically decline before they recover — a counterintuitive dynamic that caught many producers off guard in past cycles. Drought conditions across the Lower 48 are complicating the rebuild, with pasture coverage moving in the wrong direction. On the demand side, CME futures sold off sharply on consumer spending concerns and fuel prices before rebounding on technical buying — a pattern that reflects genuine uncertainty about beef affordability as pork and other proteins compete for wallet share at the meat case.

Cattle futures whipped in three different directions in a single week — and the forces driving that volatility have serious implications for producers with cattle to move this summer. With higher-than-expected feedlot placements, elevated fuel prices hammering consumer purchasing power, and pork cutout values quietly climbing, the beef demand picture is flashing yellow. In this Friday wrap for the week of May 29th, 2026, Brock and Jim break down a turbulent week across cattle markets. The data shows feeder steer prices softening from May highs, with model forecasts pointing to a meaningful step-down over the next four weeks — the lighter 500-549 pound class is projected to drop from $443 at one week out to $408 at four weeks, a gap that represents real money on any size pen. Brock and Jim dig into what's driving that trajectory: bearish placement numbers, fuel-driven consumer anxiety, and early signs of protein substitution toward chicken and pork. The episode also covers major corporate news in meat processing, including Tyson Foods replacing its CEO amid underperformance in its beef segment, while Hormel beats estimates on the strength of poultry demand. Brock and Jim discuss what a leadership shake-up at the country's largest beef packer could mean for procurement and cash price relationships. The bottom line this week: producers with cattle to market in the next four to six weeks are advised not to wait for a better number that may not come.

Feeder cattle futures hit limit down after the USDA's May cattle on feed report landed sharply above market expectations — and the selloff didn't stop there. For producers with cattle to move this summer, the price risk picture changed fast, and Brock and Jim break down exactly what happened and what it means. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim open with a detailed look at feeder steer prices across weight classes, where cash markets have been softening throughout May and model projections point to further declines in the weeks ahead. They walk through the USDA cattle on feed report that caught traders offside, the simultaneous softening in consumer demand sentiment around Memorial Day, and why the gap between cash and futures deserves close attention right now. The conversation then shifts to the longer-term supply picture — with the U.S. beef cow herd near record lows, USDA projecting a beef production decline in 2027, and drought conditions adding further pressure, the structural case for strong prices remains intact even as near-term futures pull back. Brock and Jim also cover a packed global trade week: the Mexico-EU free trade agreement, China's suspension of beef imports from Brazilian meatpacking plants, Argentina's soybean export tax cuts, and an EU fertilizer tariff waiver — and what each development means for U.S. cattle and feed markets heading into summer.

Feeder cattle prices are sliding, futures whipsawed three times in three days, and a screwworm outbreak on the southern border is costing Mexico nearly two billion dollars in livestock losses. For U.S. cattle producers, this week delivered a perfect storm of market volatility, global trade shifts, and escalating biosecurity threats — all hitting at once. In this Friday wrap, Brock and Jim break down the latest feeder steer price data, with five-weight steers softening to $464.41/cwt and model projections pointing toward continued downward pressure in the weeks ahead. They walk through a chaotic week in cattle futures — corn-driven selloffs, technical selling, partial recoveries, and pre-report uncertainty — and make the case that demand strength, not just tight supply, is the real story behind elevated prices. On the global stage, Brock and Jim examine China's dominance as the world's largest beef importer, Brazil's push to expand meatpacking access to Chinese markets, and record-setting U.S. beef variety meat exports. They also dig into the biosecurity situation demanding immediate producer attention: USDA has escalated its sterile fly dispersal response to the advancing New World screwworm threat, the U.S.-Mexico border closure remains in effect, and Jim shares a firsthand account from the 1995 screwworm flare-up that still applies today. As Jim puts it, biosecurity is like a fence — it only works if you maintain it every single day.

US cattle supplies have just hit a 75-year low — and the futures market is reacting with the kind of volatility that hasn't been seen in decades. At the same time, a landmark US-China trade agreement has committed Beijing to purchasing at least $17 billion in American agricultural products annually through 2028, explicitly reopening beef and poultry trade between the two nations. These two seismic forces — a historic supply squeeze and a major export market reopening simultaneously — are colliding in real time, and producers need to understand what both mean for their bottom line heading into the summer of 2026. In this Tuesday market update for May 19th, 2026, Brock and Jim break down the latest cash and futures numbers across the key feeder weight classes. Five-hundred to five-forty-nine pound steers came in at $464.41 per hundredweight for the week ending May 10th on heavy volume, while the six-hundred to six-forty-nine pound class settled at $418.26 per hundredweight. Both classes showed modest week-over-week softening, and the model forecast projects a gradual step-down over the four-week horizon — particularly in heavier feeders — a trend Brock and Jim flag as one producers need to monitor closely. Front-month futures are trading at a notable discount to cash, reflecting geopolitical uncertainty baked into the forward curve rather than any fundamental shift in supply. CME Group's announcement that it is expanding daily trading limits for live cattle and feeder cattle futures effective June 2026 — citing historically tight supplies — adds another layer of urgency for producers with existing hedges. Brock and Jim dig deep into the China trade story, offering both the bullish case and the historical caution that experienced market watchers know well. While seventy-seven new US beef establishment registrations took effect May 15th and the diplomatic commitment is concrete, thirty-eight US establishments remain suspended, and the logistics of moving meaningful export volume takes months to develop. Jim draws on a telling story from the 1996 China trade talks — when futures rallied hard on promise alone, only to give back gains when implementation lagged — as a warning against overcommitting to a rally before the trucks are actually rolling. US beef exports fell eleven percent in March 2026 due to the Chinese market lockout, and while the reopening has genuine long-term upside, the near-term price action is likely to overshoot in both directions as implementation details emerge. The episode closes with a sharp look at global beef trade dynamics and the competitive pressures US exporters face from South American rivals. Brazilian beef processors reported a twenty-seven percent jump in first-quarter net profit driven by surging export volumes into the same global markets US producers are trying to capture. Brazil's widening male-to-female cattle price differential signals that fed cattle supply is tightening globally — not just domestically — reinforcing the structural nature of the current price environment. On a more encouraging note, US beef variety meat exports hit a record monthly value high in March despite the China lockout, pointing to resilient demand in secondary markets like Japan, South Korea, and Mexico. Brock summarizes the three producer takeaways from the episode: watch the softening trend in heavier feeders, don't chase the China rally blindly, and recognize that quality and traceability — not volume — are the competitive advantages US beef must lean on in an increasingly contested global market.

Cattle markets delivered one of the most volatile weeks in recent memory — and somehow came out the other side looking stronger than ever. Cash fed cattle prices surged to $265 live and $410 dressed by midweek, even as CME futures whipsawed violently on competing headlines about beef import tariffs out of Washington. The divergence between a cash market driven by razor-thin physical supply and a futures market reacting to every policy rumor tells producers everything they need to know about where the real fundamentals stand right now. In this Friday wrap for the week ending May 15, 2026, Brock and Jim break down a market snapshot showing feeder steer prices holding remarkable resilience despite the noise. The 500–549 pound weight class closed the reporting week at $467.64 per hundredweight on volume exceeding 5,200 head — essentially unchanged from early April levels — while the 600–649 pound class came in at $418.75 on nearly 7,000 head. That roughly $50 per hundredweight spread between the two weight classes is a clear signal from the market: lighter feeder cattle with more days of gain still command a strong premium. Near-term forecast models point to a constructive outlook for both classes, with the lighter 500-weight steers projected to peak near $460.29 per hundredweight at the three-week mark, and the heavier 600-weight class building steadily toward $425.65 at four weeks out. Brock and Jim also unpack the week's futures market drama in detail, walking through the full round trip in sentiment that ran from Monday's sell-off on tariff reduction expectations through Wednesday's recovery to near-record highs. The Trump administration reportedly prepared executive orders to temporarily lower beef import tariffs — framed as a response to retail beef prices running 16% above pre-Trump levels and up 2.7% in April alone — only to delay signing them, with the White House later confirming it is "fine-tuning" rather than abandoning the plan. Jim draws on a parallel from 1998 when similar import-threat headlines rattled the Abilene cattlemen's meeting for months before actual import volumes proved far smaller than feared, offering critical historical perspective on the gap between policy noise and real-world market impact. The episode digs into what Brock calls the foundation of the entire market story: persistently tight US cattle supply and the challenges facing herd rebuilding. Tyson Foods' CFO described producer herd rebuilding efforts as "spotty" this week and projected that beef, pork, and poultry costs will remain elevated through 2027 — a forecast that carries significant weight coming from one of the country's largest processors. The May USDA WASDE report reinforced that view, projecting higher prices for cattle, corn, and wheat amid continued supply tightness. Brock and Jim close with four things producers should be watching closely in the weeks ahead: the details of any tariff executive orders, packer slaughter volume trends, feeder cattle movement data from the USDA marketings report, and — perhaps most importantly — the discipline to keep reactive, headline-driven hedging decisions out of a marketing plan that should be built on breakevens, not breaking news.

Feeder cattle prices are softening just as Washington threatens to flood the market with Brazilian beef — and the futures market is flashing warning signals that cattle producers cannot afford to ignore. The Trump administration is expected to temporarily reduce beef import tariffs on Brazilian product following a White House meeting between President Trump and Brazilian President Lula — a meeting reportedly arranged by JBS co-owner Joesley Batista, a Brazilian billionaire whose company stands to be among the primary beneficiaries of any tariff reduction. Futures tumbled on that news before partially recovering, adding to an already volatile week that saw prices swing in both directions as traders weighed geopolitical headlines against increasingly uncertain fundamentals. In this Tuesday Market Update for May 12, 2026, Brock and Jim break down the latest cash and futures market numbers, including feeder steer prices across the 500–549 and 600–649 pound weight classes, which have both given back a few dollars from mid-April highs. Near-term model forecasts show a modest dip before a gradual recovery — but Brock is clear that those projections assume the Brazil trade situation doesn't materially escalate. With front-month futures sitting at $371.87 and deferred contracts trading at a significant discount to cash, the pair dig into what it actually means to try to hedge cattle in a market with no carry, and why that combination of record cash prices and discounted futures can be more dangerous than it looks on the surface. Jim draws on a firsthand account from 1994, when strong feeder prices masked a treacherous hedging environment that left unhedged operators badly exposed when markets turned. The history lesson lands with real force given today's conditions: live cattle prices have risen 525 percent since 2022, packer bids are showing no urgency, and feedlot operators trying to forward price cattle are essentially being told by the board to take less than today's cash market is offering. Brock and Jim also examine the role of a single JBS principal in brokering what is ostensibly a diplomatic trade meeting, and what that level of private sector influence means for US cattle producers trying to assess whose interests are shaping federal trade policy. Rounding out the episode, Brock and Jim cover the broader macro picture pressing down on the cattle sector from multiple directions simultaneously. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization reported that global food prices climbed in April to their highest level in more than three years, driven in part by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the Iran war — a supply chain disruption that is pushing energy costs, fertilizer prices, and transportation costs higher across agriculture. On the demand side, the ongoing H5N1 avian influenza outbreak — with losses now topping 200 million birds since 2022 — has provided structural support for beef demand as consumers shift toward alternative proteins, while a steady April jobs report with unemployment holding at 4.3 percent signals that consumers still have spending capacity. Brock and Jim make the case that producers who understand all of these variables together — not just the cash price — are the ones best positioned to stay solvent through whatever comes next.