The Cattle Market Guys Podcast – Details, episodes & analysis

Screwworm has moved from threat to confirmed reality — with cases now verified in both Texas and New Mexico, Mexico has suspended live animal imports from the United States. This week's episode of Cattle Market Guys breaks down what that means for producers and the broader cattle trade. Brock and Jim open with the market snapshot for the week of June 12, 2026, walking through feeder steer prices across weight classes, flagging the thin volume that makes this week's prints unreliable benchmarks, and sharing model forecasts that point to modest price softening in the near term. The cash-to-futures relationship gets its own spotlight, with CME live cattle futures running at a notable discount to cash markets — a dynamic that's been providing upward price support and signaling that traders see staying power in current cash strength. The June WASDE report projects steady prices for both cattle and corn, offering some stability amid broader uncertainty. The episode also examines the global trade pressures stacking up around the industry: Russian strikes on Ukraine's Black Sea port infrastructure are threatening grain export flows with downstream implications for US feed costs, while US beef exports continue to lag year-over-year with China's absence as a buyer cited as a key driver. Jim draws on firsthand experience from the 1988 drought and trade disruptions to put the current moment in historical perspective — and to caution against reactive decisions when multiple headwinds hit at once.

New World Screwworm has been confirmed in multiple Texas counties, and it's moving fast — at least four cases across Zavala and La Salle counties in a matter of days, triggering a livestock quarantine, a disaster declaration, and immediate ripple effects across both the cash and futures markets. This is the most significant livestock biosecurity threat to hit the U.S. in decades, and ranchers need to understand what it means right now. In this Tuesday Market Update for June 9, 2026, Brock and Jim break down the week's cattle market numbers, including strong early-week prices in the 500–549 lb. steer class at $475.80/cwt and a notable gap opening up between cash and futures markets. They walk through model forecasts for the next one to four weeks and explain why the heavier weight classes are flashing a timing signal for producers with flexibility. The episode digs deep into the screwworm outbreak — how it entered the U.S., how quickly it's spreading geographically, and why Jim's firsthand experience checking cattle in Presidio County in 1976 still carries hard lessons for ranchers in affected areas today. Brock and Jim also cover the trade disruptions flowing from the outbreak, including border restrictions with both Mexico and Canada, new tariff uncertainty across 60 countries, and what Brazil's clean FMD status signals about competitive dynamics in global protein markets.

The Department of Justice has formally expanded its antitrust investigation into Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef over beef pricing practices. This development comes as Tyson Foods reports its beef division is losing up to $500 million despite raising overall profit outlook. Market analysts suggest this investigation could significantly impact cattle prices and producer relationships with packers in the coming months. In this critical Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim analyze the latest cattle market data showing a meaningful slide of roughly $16 per hundredweight for 600-649 pound steers over the past two weeks. They examine the substantial premium for lighter cattle, currently running at approximately $48 per hundredweight over heavier cattle, indicating feedlots remain hungry for placement cattle despite market pressures. The hosts dive deep into how packer losses are affecting slaughter volumes and market dynamics, with Brock noting that "packers are taking on larger inventories rather than moving cattle through at a pace that would support prices." Jim shares personal historical perspective from similar market conditions in the late 1990s, providing context for today's challenges. They also address how drought conditions threaten the ongoing herd rebuilding efforts, particularly in the Southern Plains where El Niño patterns are expected to keep regions drier than normal through summer. On a more positive note, the episode covers significant international trade developments, including restored duty-free access for U.S. beef in the United Kingdom. The hosts discuss how the U.S. Meat Export Federation's promotional events in London could help create demand at the export level, potentially supporting domestic prices. Brock and Jim conclude with practical market forecasts for May, offering guidance for producers navigating these complex market conditions.

Cattle futures have risen for five consecutive sessions amid growing concerns over the New World Screwworm outbreak, with emergency treatments now authorized by the FDA. The USDA has broken ground on a sterile fly facility in Texas as part of containment efforts, while expectations for reopening the US-Mexico border to cattle imports continue to fade. This health crisis is creating significant market volatility, with historical parallels suggesting producers should carefully time their marketing decisions during fear-driven price spikes. In this Week in Review episode, Brock and Jim analyze the complex factors driving current cattle market dynamics. They begin with a detailed market snapshot showing medium and large frame steers (600-649 lbs) trading at $415.51/cwt, while lighter cattle command significantly higher prices at $463.51/cwt. Their four-week forecast suggests potential softening for heavier cattle before a modest bounce in week four. The hosts dive deep into the screwworm situation, examining how emergency regulatory actions are impacting the market. Jim shares historical context from a 1992 outbreak, offering valuable perspective on how temporary price spikes during health scares can quickly reverse. The episode also explores the unusually narrow Choice-Select spread that recently inverted for the first time since 2009, signaling potential shifts in consumer behavior and feeding strategies. Border policies and international trade round out the discussion, with Brock and Jim examining how the continued border closure affects domestic feeder cattle supply. They connect global events, including rejected soybean meal shipments in Europe, to potential impacts on U.S. feed costs. The episode concludes with guidance for producers navigating this complex, news-driven market that features both promising fundamentals and significant risks heading into summer.

Record-breaking ground beef demand and suspended Mexican cattle imports are creating a perfect storm for elevated cattle prices, with six-weight steers trading at $415.51/cwt. Despite forecasts showing some softening in heavier cattle over the coming weeks, the market fundamentals remain strong heading into summer. Meanwhile, University of Nebraska researchers have developed a promising H5N1 vaccine for cattle that could transform biosecurity protocols. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim deliver a comprehensive analysis of current cattle market conditions, including detailed price breakdowns across weight classes and a four-week price forecast. They examine why lighter cattle are commanding significant premiums and how cash prices improving alongside larger slaughter volume signals genuine demand growth. The hosts dive into critical animal health developments, discussing not only the groundbreaking H5N1 vaccine research but also key stress points in beef-on-dairy calf production and the concerning trend of increasing mature cow size (averaging 7.7 pounds per year over sixty years). With a strong El Niño forecast for late 2026, producers need to consider how larger cows and potential feed cost increases could impact profitability. The episode concludes with an optimistic outlook on beef demand, highlighting record per capita ground beef supplies and how changing consumer preferences—even among those using GLP-1 medications—may actually benefit quality beef producers. Jim shares colorful historical perspective on how the industry has evolved since the lean-focused 1980s, reminding listeners that market cycles eventually come full circle.

**Cattle futures slide for six consecutive sessions as demand concerns grow for high-priced beef. Front-month contracts settle at $374.15/cwt while cash markets see northern cattle trading down $2 from last week at $246 live and $386 dressed. Is this the beginning of a deeper price correction or just a temporary market adjustment? Brock and Jim analyze what this means for producers heading into summer.** In this week's market wrap-up, the Cattle Market Guys examine the technical selling and profit-taking pushing cattle futures lower across multiple weight classes. Brock breaks down the numbers showing 600-649 weight steers settling at $421.89/cwt (down from $424.06) and 500-549 weights at $470.58/cwt (slightly off from $471.98 last week). Jim shares valuable perspective from his experience during similar market corrections in 1998, offering practical wisdom for navigating current uncertainties. The episode delves into international trade challenges affecting U.S. beef exports, particularly the continued closure of the Chinese market. While variety meat exports show growth, Brazil's emerging dominance as a global protein supplier amid market volatility creates new competitive pressures. The hosts discuss how these shifting trade patterns impact domestic producers and strategies for maintaining competitiveness in alternative markets. Health concerns take center stage as Brock and Jim address the alarming detection of New World Screwworm within 62 miles of the Texas border. They detail the USDA's response, including plans for a new sterile fly production facility, while Jim recounts his firsthand experience fighting a similar outbreak in 1984. The discussion emphasizes biosecurity measures, community cooperation, and vigilance as essential tools for producers facing potential disease threats. Throughout this comprehensive market analysis, the Cattle Market Guys provide actionable insights for cattle producers navigating these challenging conditions. From price forecasts to disease prevention strategies, this episode delivers the market intelligence needed to make informed decisions during uncertain times.

BREAKING MARKET ALERT: Cattle prices holding strong despite forecasted volatility ahead! While 600-649 pound steers maintain strength at $421.89/cwt, experts predict a rollercoaster pattern over the next four weeks with prices dipping before climbing back to $423.63/cwt. The latest USDA Cattle on Feed report shows tightening supplies that could support stronger prices through 2026. In this week's Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim deliver a comprehensive analysis of the cattle market landscape heading into late April 2026. The hosts break down current cash market strength across multiple weight classes, with 600-649 pound steers trading at $421.89/cwt and lighter 500-549 pound steers commanding $470.58/cwt. They examine the slight gap between front-month futures at $374.15 and next-month futures at $372.35, signaling potential market adjustments ahead. The episode features an in-depth discussion of the April 2026 USDA Cattle on Feed report, which revealed a 1% year-over-year decline in cattle inventory to 11.58 million head. Brock explains how these tighter supplies typically support stronger prices, though variables like feed costs and competing protein markets could influence the outlook. Jim shares historical perspective on market volatility, recounting lessons from past market swings and emphasizing the importance of quality production regardless of market conditions. Environmental challenges facing producers take center stage in the final segment, with drought conditions worsening by 1.6% across the lower 48 states just last week. The hosts discuss the impact of below-average snowpack in western states and a potential screwworm resurgence that has prompted USDA preparation. Jim offers valuable insight from his experience during the devastating 1988 drought, emphasizing the timeless wisdom of protecting superior genetics when facing environmental challenges and the importance of planning ahead in cattle operations.

**Front-month cattle futures hit contract high of $251.78, soaring $5.57 week-over-week! Heavy volume trading continues with 600-649lb steers moving at $420.81/cwt while lighter weights command premium prices. Packers are bidding aggressively as beef quality trends shift dramatically toward Prime and Choice grades.** In this week's market wrap-up, Brock and Jim analyze the striking upward movement in cattle futures alongside current cash market dynamics. The hosts dive deep into price differentials between weight classes, with 500-549lb steers fetching $468.74/cwt compared to heavier steers at $420.81/cwt despite significantly higher volume in the heavier category. The episode explores the impressive rally in futures contracts, with June through August contracts rising between $2.57 and $2.87. Brock and Jim discuss the strategic implications for producers considering hedge contracts versus waiting for potential continued strength, with Jim sharing a valuable historical perspective from the market crash of '87. The conversation highlights the importance of maintaining a steady approach during market volatility rather than making panic-driven decisions. Quality grade distribution takes center stage as Brock explains the ongoing shift toward Prime and Choice beef production, with Select grades continuing to decline. The hosts examine how this quality transformation is rewarding producers who invest in genetics and nutrition programs capable of delivering premium grades. Jim offers insights from decades of experience watching the market gradually recognize and reward higher marbling. The discussion concludes with crucial analysis of consumer affordability concerns as beef prices have jumped 16% year-over-year. Brock and Jim warn producers to watch for potential demand erosion heading into grilling season, with Jim recounting lessons from 1996 when retail price resistance eventually impacted ranch-level economics. The hosts emphasize how market signals flow from retail counters back to ranches, making consumer trends vital information for strategic planning.

The recent labor agreement at the JBS USA Greeley beef facility has ended three weeks of market uncertainty that was creating ripple effects throughout the cattle supply chain. This resolution highlights how labor disputes in meatpacking directly impact producer profits when cattle can't move on schedule. Brock and Jim analyze what this settlement means for market stability heading into summer 2026. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim break down current market conditions with feeder cattle showing mixed results across weight classes. The 600-649 pound category held steady at $420.81/cwt, while lighter feeders in the 500-549 pound range traded higher at $468.74/cwt, showing 1-2% strength compared to March averages. The hosts analyze how these price variations reflect seasonal demand patterns and buyer strategies. The conversation explores broader economic challenges facing cattle producers, including rising inflation and worsening drought conditions across the Lower 48. Jim shares his experience from the devastating drought of '88 to illustrate how weather extremes force difficult decisions about herd management and financial planning. The hosts emphasize the importance of maintaining cash reserves and making strategic decisions during market downturns. Rounding out the episode, Brock and Jim discuss exciting developments with the new "Product of USA" labeling rules requiring beef to be born, raised and processed domestically. They note the impressive strength in live cattle futures trading between $240-245/cwt (up $30 from last year) and feeder futures ranging from $365-370/cwt (up $70 year-over-year). The hosts emphasize how quality premiums are creating opportunities for producers with superior genetics and management practices.

BREAKING: Cattle prices hit record highs with 600-649lb steers averaging $417.13/cwt, up from $414.88 last week with heavy volume exceeding 6,600 head. Lighter steers (500-549lb) command even higher prices at $464.39/cwt, showing remarkable stability as we move into spring 2026. The USDA's April WASDE report projects these robust pricing trends will continue through much of the year despite expected increases in beef imports. In this week's market wrap-up, Brock and Jim analyze the current state of cattle markets, discussing the impressive price stability across key weight ranges and what it means for producers. They examine the latest futures contracts, with front-month sitting at $364.63 and next month at $362.54, highlighting the optimism reflected in physical markets compared to futures prices. The hosts delve into international trade developments, particularly the potential reopening of the U.S.-Mexico border for cattle trade within the next 2-4 weeks. This border has been closed since November 2024, and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins' announcement could signal significant changes for domestic supply and pricing. Jim shares his experience from previous border closures, offering valuable perspective on adapting to sudden market disruptions. The episode concludes with an examination of recent USDA reports, including marketing numbers showing 1.522 million head marketed in February and growing drought concerns. The Drought Monitor reports a 0.2% increase in affected areas across the lower 48 states and a concerning 9.2% year-over-year increase. Brock and Jim discuss practical strategies for producers to navigate these challenges while maintaining profitability in today's dynamic cattle market environment.