Risk Parity Radio – Details, episodes & analysis

In this episode we answer emails from Mikel, Garrison and Matt.  We discuss our charity and some foundational episodes, the use of leveraged fund UPRO in the OPTRA sample portfolio, and the four phases of learning and knowledge in personal finance, which are (1) Baby Steps; (2) Shiny Object Syndrome; (3) Applying Formulas That Represent Sound Investing Principles; and (4) Understanding Sound Investing Principles And Applying Them Directly.  And Mt. Rushmore and The Dog With The Longest Name.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Risk Parity Radio RSS Feed With All Podcasts On One Searchable Webpage:  Risk Parity Radio RSS Feed (buzzsprout.com)

Father McKenna Center Main Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Father McKenna Center Walk4McKenna Page:  Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center

Amusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

How can long-term treasury bonds cushion your portfolio against turbulent market conditions? This week on Risk Parity Radio, we provide a detailed review of our sample portfolios, showing how treasuries have played a crucial role in mitigating recent stock market losses. We also share an inspiring email from Michael, a new listener who discusses his generous donation to the Father McKenna Center and highlights the upcoming Walk for McKenna fundraiser. Tune in to learn how you can support this meaningful cause while enhancing your understanding of risk parity investing.

Embark on a journey to financial independence with us as we dissect the critical stages and pitfalls along the way. We'll guide you through the initial "baby steps," cautioning against the allure of "shiny object syndrome," and emphasize the importance of transitioning to practical, DIY investment strategies. Discover the core principles of successful investing, such as diversification and macro allocation, that will empower you to achieve true financial independence and navigate your personal finance journey with confidence.

In a week marked by significant market declines, we analyze the performance of various portfolio strategies, highlighting the resilience of long-term treasury bonds and the impressive gains in diversified portfolios like the All Seasons and Golden Butterfly. Get an inside look at the new Optra portfolio, its composition, and its performance amidst economic fluctuations. We wrap up with an engaging tale about an extraordinarily talented dog, blending financial wisdom with light-hearted storytelling to keep you both informed and entertained.

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In this episode we answer emails from Brian, JD and Andrew.   We discuss using leverage in portfolios (again!), gold ETFs and early retirement considerations and withdrawal strategies. 

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Yours Truly on the Forget About Money Podcast:  🎲 Risk Parity: The Secret to a 5% Safe Withdrawal Rate! | Frank Vasquez 🏆 (youtube.com)

Ben Felix Video On Leverage:  Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) (youtube.com)

Optimized Portfolios Website:  Optimized Portfolio - Investing and Personal Finance

ETF Database -- Gold ETFs:  Gold ETF List (etfdb.com)

PHYS Fund Article:  Tax Information - Physical Gold Trust (sprott.com)

Portfolio Charts Withdrawal Rates Calculator:  Withdrawal Rates – Portfolio Charts

Portfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator:  Retirement Spending – Portfolio Charts

Morningstar Report re Variable Withdrawal Strategies:  Six Retirement Withdrawal Strategies that Stretch Savings | Morningstar


Amusing Unedited AI-bot Summary:

Ready to rethink your investment strategy? Uncover the secrets of leveraging your portfolio from insights gleaned from industry titans like Ray Dalio and practical advice for everyday investors. We promise you'll walk away with a new perspective on the benefits and risks of using leverage, tips on incorporating leveraged ETFs into your own portfolio, and a treasure trove of resources including the Optimize Portfolios site and an enlightening video by Ben Felix. This episode is packed with knowledge that can transform how you approach your investments.

But that's not all—we're spicing up this financial discussion with a revisit to one of the most memorable moments in film history. Relive the iconic scene between James Bond and Goldfinger, dissecting the thrilling exchange and the unforgettable line, "No, Mr. Bond, I expect you to die." We'll break down Bond’s daring attitude against Goldfinger’s ruthless intent, highlighting why this scene is etched in cinematic lore. A blend of financial wisdom and pop culture nostalgia, this episode promises to both inform and entertain. Tune in and join the conversation!

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In this episode we answer questions from Nonamed, Ronald, and Jose.  We discuss how sensational financial media works and why you should ignore it, being thankful for our listeners and how correlations work and relate to macro-economic environments in the context of the Holy Grail principle.  And we discuss our charitable match outreach for the Father McKenna Center.

And then we go through our weekly portfolio reviews of all eight of the sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page -- Remember to mention "The Financial Quarterback match" in new donations:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Risk Parity Radio RSS Feed Page For Word Searching The Podcast:  Risk Parity Radio RSS Feed (buzzsprout.com)

UNC Paper (not Duke!) Re Treasury Bond Correlations In Recessions (see Page 53 for Chart):  ssrn_id4768684_code533828.pdf (elsevier-ssrn-document-store-prod.s3.amazonaws.com)

Ray Dalio Explains The Holy Grail Principle: Ray Dalio breaks down his "Holy Grail" (youtube.com)

Bridgewater Paper With Basic Quadrant Model Example (see Page 8):   Bridgewater Paper 2009.12 AW Info Pack.doc (granicus.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from George, Danny, and Jamie.  We discuss short-term asset allocations and considerations thereabouts, expense-tracking methodologies (led by Sister Stigmata), and manager-run managed futures funds versus replication-based funds.

Links:

QMHNX Page:  AQR Managed Futures Strategy HV Fund - QMHNX

Podcast Debate about Managed Futures Funds:  246 Systematic Investor Series ft. Andrew Beer & Tim Pickering – June 3rd, 2023 | Top Traders Unplugged

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In this episode we answer emails from Thirsty Horse, Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude") and Mark.  We discuss our charity, assorted Monte Carlo simulations on Portfolio Visualizer and data sources, rebalancing of leveraged portfolios and the choice of leverage (follow up on Episode 259), Flight of the Conchords, and the pitfalls of trying to use valuation metrics as crystal balls.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

Become a Patron and Support our Charity:  Risk Parity Radio | creating A Podcast | Patreon

Monte Carlo Analysis of basic Golden Ratio portfolio back to 1994:  https://tinyurl.com/mswkra9c

Monte Carlo Analysis of Golden Ratio portfolio back to the 1970s:  https://tinyurl.com/hzd6xftt

Portfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator: RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts

Michael Kitces Optimized Rebalancing Articles:  Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)

Aswath Damodaran on Long View Podcast:  Aswath Damodaran: A Valuation Expert’s Take on Inflation, Stock Buybacks, ESG, and More | Morningstar

Aswath Damodaran/Equity Risk Premium: Damodaran On-line Home Page (nyu.edu)

Errant 2013 Paper re 4% Rule:  delivery.php (ssrn.com)

Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2014:  Shiller PE: Bad Market Timing, Good Retirement Planning (kitces.com)

Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2016:  Reducing Retirement Return Assumptions For High Valuation? (kitces.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from R.J., Mark and Jaako.  We discuss how amateur investors doing projections often double-count inflation accidently and apply inappropriate tax rates, using low-beta funds in portfolio construction, and ETFs designed to combat inflation in Finland and elsewhere.

Note I misspoke and the USMV low-beta portfolio does better than the two created in Mark's backtests.

Links:

Value Stock Geek's Podcast Interview of Tyler from Portfolio Charts:  Tyler (@PortfolioCharts): The Amazing Power of Uncorrelated Assets (securityanalysis.org)

Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo Simulator:  Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Rational Reminder Interview of Professor Campbell:  Prof. John Y. Campbell: Financial Decisions for Long-term Investors | Rational Reminder 250 - YouTube

Analysis of Low Beta Portfolios:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Mark's Correlation Analysis:  Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Fund Page for Jaako's Fund:   Lyxor EUR 2-10Y Inflation Expectations UCITS ETF - Acc | LYX0U6 | LU1390062245 (justetf.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Bruce, Raymond and Alexi (a/k/a "Dude").  We discuss what we learned from last year about the performance of various assets in a severely rising interest environment, holding a conservative portfolio in accumulation to sleep better and one of the Dude's gambling experiments involving UDOW and TQQQ.

Links:

Updated UNC Paper re Bonds, Flights to Safety and Stock Market Volatility:  SSRN-id1436124.pdf

Portfolio Charts Time to Financial Independence Calculator:   FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE – Portfolio Charts

Alexi's UDOW/TQQQ Analysis:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Long Term Analysis of Total Market vs. 50/50 Large Cap Growth/Value:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo, Mark, Kasey and Eric.  We discuss a Kitces article about managing capital gains tax brackets, some of Mark's favorite episodes -- 208 on ideas for beginning investors and 209 about common safe-withdrawal-rate hysterias, Big ERNs' blog post on personal inflation rates and my response on his site, and the problems of substituting mental accounting about buckets and other things with actual strategies.

Links:

Michael Kitces Article:  The Tax Impact Of The Long-Term Capital Gains Bump Zone (kitces.com)

Early Retirement Now Blog Post:   Accounting for Homeownership in (Early) Retirement– SWR Series Part 57 – Early Retirement Now

2022 Morningstar Report on Withdrawal Strategies:  Six Retirement Withdrawal Strategies that Stretch Savings | Morningstar

Earn & Invest Interview of Christine Benz about the Morningstar Report:  Are Safe Withdrawal Debates Ridiculous — Earn & Invest (earnandinvest.com)

Ben Carlson Post on the inherent Mental Accounting of Bucket Strategies:  The Mental Accounting of Asset Allocation - A Wealth of Common Sense

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In this episode we answer emails from Drew, Carlos and Eric.  We discuss the UPAR and RPAR risk parity ETFs and their construction, rant a bit about TIPS, discuss attractive narratives about de-dollarization in the context of cognitive biases (the possibility effect and ignoring base rates) and how our adult children use a Golden Ratio-style portfolio to save for intermediate goals.

Links:

Father McKenna Center donation page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

UPAR webpage:  UPAR Risk Parity ETF (rparetf.com)

Michael Kitces interview:  Michael Kitces: How Higher Yields Affect Asset Allocation and Retirement Planning | The Long View (simplecast.com)

De-dollarization article:  De-dollarization Has Begun. | AIER

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In this episode we answer emails from Eric (x2), Ron and Jeffrey.  We discuss the EconoMe Conference, my friendship with Diania Merriam, bid/ask spreads at various brokerages, an exquisite analysis of margin leverage vs. leveraged ETFs and the gold/gold miner fund GDMN.

Links:

EconoMe Conference 2024:  EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024

Father McKenna Center Giving Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

Ron's Leverage Analysis I:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Ron's Leverage Analysis II:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Article re Margin vs. Leveraged ETFs:  Margin Trading vs. Leveraged ETFs | Cumberland Advisors

Corey Hoffstein Interview About Using Leveraged ETFs:  How to Improve a 100% Stock Portfolio Using Return Stacking w/ Corey Hoffstein (theinvestorspodcast.com)

GDMN ETF webpage:  Global Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy ETF Fund| WisdomTree

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