Explore every episode of the podcast Pitch The PM

Free Personalized AI Moderator Trial

“If you want to generate alpha, you can’t be sharing all this information.”

“That interviewer needs to think and feel and act like you do. It needs to have all the context that you do.”

“We’re just making primary research faster, cheaper, and embedded. If I had to summarize the whole thing, that’s what Qualitate is doing.”

Sagar Kadakia has spent nearly 20 years in primary research. He joined Tom DelVecchio at ETR in 2011, ran buy-side survey work for six years, and later built research and data products at 7Park Data and CB Insights.

In 2023, as ChatGPT and voice capture crossed human parity, he founded Qualitate: an AI interviewer that runs 45–65 minute expert conversations autonomously and is grounded in what he describes as the fastest-growing AI-moderated interview library in the world.

Crew Capital wrote the first $1M check when few others wanted to fund a company building its own expert panel. This week, Qualitate announced a $25M Series A led by Insight Partners, with net revenue retention above 300% and run-rate revenue up 10x in nine months.

Sagar walks through Qualitate’s two products: a proactive library built using Qualitate’s own capital and questions, and a private channel-check product where clients bring their own questions, interviewer, library, and internal inputs — without that proprietary information being mixed back into the broader system.

We also get into why the architecture matters: grounding instead of retraining for every new model, persistent memory so call five knows calls one through four, and transcripts structured so investors can query them for time series instead of simply searching.

“You can search through transcript files, but you can’t actually query that data. On Qualitate, you can actually query transcripts.”

“We don’t train or fine-tune anything. Because if you do that and the next version comes out, all of that work you just did goes to zero. We ground it.”

💡 This episode is presented by:Fiscal.AI — Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure. 15% discount with code PITCH: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/?via=pitch⁠

Highlights:

(00:33) Twenty years in primary research: ETR, 7Park Data, CB Insights

(01:40) ChatGPT, voice capture and “continuous expert intelligence”

(03:20) $25M Insight Partners Series A, NRR above 300%

(04:34) Qualitate’s proactive AI-moderated research library

(09:06) Private channel checks: your questions, interviewer and library

(12:57) Uploading transcripts and memos into the interviewer

(15:15) Human bias vs. AI-moderated interviews

(21:08) The $2,000 expert call problem

(21:30) One-third to one-quarter of the price; 20–40 calls in days

(23:18) Building an expert panel with agents

(26:35) Do the first two calls yourself, then hand off 50

(29:07) Structured, queryable transcripts and longitudinal analysis

(31:45) Hedge funds moving channel checks to Qualitate

(47:12) Continuous intelligence: AI, humans, simulations and synthetics

(51:12) Faster, cheaper, embedded primary research

(52:23) Sagar’s biggest entrepreneurial mistakes

Topics: Expert Networks, AI Interviewing, Primary Research, Channel Checks, Qualitate, GLG, Guidepoint, AlphaSense, Tegus, Snowflake, Insight Partners, Grounding vs. Fine-Tuning, Proprietary Data, Agents, Hedge Funds, Private Equity Diligence

Research Sponsors:

Oxford Data Plan - The Home of Alternative Data.

The Home of Alternative Data Carbon Arc — The Infrastructure for the AI Economy. 30 days free with code PTPM30: ⁠

Pitch The PM:

Substack: ⁠ https://pitchthepm.substack.com⁠

LinkedIn: ⁠https://linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508⁠

Sagar Kadakia:

LinkedIn: ⁠https://linkedin.com/in/s-kadakia⁠

Qualitate: ⁠https://qualitate.io⁠

Not Investment Advice.

Carmen Li, CEO of Silicon Data and Compute Exchange, joins the show to explain how compute is becoming a brand-new asset class. A former energy options market maker at DRW who later ran global data integrations at Bloomberg, Carmen was pre-seeded by DRW founder Don Wilson to build the GPU industry benchmarks. Silicon Data is the referee — "the Bloomberg for compute" — while Compute Exchange is the liquidity layer where GPUs, tokens and servers change hands.

We get into why token price indexes are falling, recent token & model consumption trends, why GPU residual values are above accounting depreciation schedules, and how neoclouds, their lenders, and compute users can hedge GPU exposure to reduce business volatility.

•     "The A100 has been around for six years at this point, and we still see three-year contracts signed on A100s." Residual values are still hovering above five-year straight-line depreciation.

•    “we'd definitely be looking at 30 trillion of [GPU] derivatives every year."

Topics: Compute as an asset class, GPU indices, CME compute futures, GPU depreciation and useful life, neoclouds, token pricing, AI chip supply chain, 

💡 This episode is presented by: Oxford Data Plan–The Home of Alternative Data

Not Investment Advice.

Highlights:

(0:00) Doug introduces Carmen Li, CEO of Silicon Data and Compute Exchange

(0:20) From energy options market maker at DRW to Bloomberg Data, and why AI startups' swinging GPU costs made compute an industry-wide hedging problem

(4:09) How DRW founder Don Wilson pre-seeded Silicon Data, and building products with no product or sales team

(6:10) Two sides of the coin: Silicon Data as "the Bloomberg for compute" and Compute Exchange as "the Nasdaq for compute"

(7:49) Licensing indices to CME for H100 and B200 compute futures, and four ETFs filed before the futures even trade

(10:22) What makes an index the source of truth: tracking supply-demand, resisting manipulation, staying neutral

(12:57) Normalizing 50 B200 server configurations, and what earns a premium or a discount to the benchmark

(16:04) Sizing the market: from 1–3 trillion in spot compute to a potential 30 trillion in derivatives notional

(18:13) Who hedges first: neoclouds, hyperscalers and the financiers holding GPUs on their balance sheets

(21:06) Michael Burry's depreciation bear case vs. the physical market: A100s still signing three-year contracts after six years

(22:49) Why older chips stay productive: cooling, floor weight, wait times and the second-hand market

(26:20) 300+ neoclouds and why more data sources make an index harder to manipulate

(28:48) B200s at ~$5 per GPU hour, the implied forward curve and the shift into contango

(31:18) Why an index provider can't give forward guidance, or own the assets.

(33:59) Token indices on the Bloomberg Terminal, and a leading indicator for AI revenue

(37:03) Why token prices are falling: workflows moving to open-source and open-weight models

(38:51) Token pricing has no transparency, and why customers will demand control

(41:49) Where to invest in the AI stack, lessons from the internet era and why "AI is a gigantic baby"

(45:03) Homegrown silicon, fab capacity and why a hundred chip designers can't create a bubble

(48:56) Why compute futures enable price discovery, not a bubble

(49:29) Running a data company and a marketplace at the same time

(52:47) Carmen's lesson for entrepreneurs: pick something you love

(54:08) The vision: the liquidity provider and the referee for every layer of the cake

Research Sponsors:

Fiscal.AI - Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure. 15% discount with code PITCH

Oxford Data Plan–The Home of Alternative DataAlphaSense–Decision Grade AICarbon Arc–The Infrastructure for the AI Economy

Pitch The PM Links:📩Early episode drops episode feedback on Substack Daily industry chatter and market color on LinkedIn 

Carmen Li Links:

Carmen LI on LinkedIn:

Silicon Data: https://www.silicondata.comCompute Exchange: https://compute.exchange 

My long time confidant, Jarrett Harris, Director of Research at IronAdvisor Insights joins the show to share his latest insights. He is quintessentially mid-western and was my go to source for learning about the on the ground pulse of the industrial economy when I was at Citadel and Millennium. As part of IronConnect, a heavy equipment industry service provider, Jarrett has unparalleled access to equipment dealers, rental companies, and industry executives. 

My key takeaways from our conversation: 

• The industrial economy’s growth is being driven by Data Center related activity from power gen, to heavy equipment, to trucking and even landscaping and coal. 

• “A second-tier AWP manufacturer's entire inventory being bought out by a national rental house”

• “I don't think we've ever had a time in my [Jarrett’s] 22 years where all three of those industries [for CAT] were firing at the same time.”

• “We're having conversations with executives in that component supply chain, I think all of them are looking for an uptick in 2027 volumes. And that was not necessarily the case three or six months ago.

• “We're hearing about a coal demand resurgence.”

• “There is a risk that there are projects [Data Center] that developers are proposing in multiple states because they don't know which is going to move forward.” 

Stocks: CAT, DE, PCAR, CMI, OSK, TEX, SITE, POOL, BTU, SNDK

*Not Investment Advice.

💡 This episode is presented by:Fiscal.AI–Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure. 15% discount with code PITCH

(0:00) Introduction/highlights 

(0:40) Doug introduces Jarrett Harris who is the axe in equipment-industry channel checks.

(1:59) How joining Iron Connect expanded Jarrett’s industry access and dealer network by 10x

(4:08) The Industrial economy is being driven by the data center buildout.

(5:23) Data center demand expands from construction equipment and power generation into new equipment categories.

(6:11) Landscaping, coal, transportation, and flatbed trailers emerge as derivative beneficiaries of the Data Center boom.

(9:38) Coal demand begins strengthening as power providers require higher base loads.

(12:01) Jarrett says he has never seen all three major Caterpillar end markets firing this strongly at the same time.

(12:34) Previously bearish industry contacts become more constructive on the 2027 outlook.

(13:36) The risk that data center project backlogs include projects proposed across multiple locations.

(15:58) Longer lead times, lighter used inventory, and highly utilized rental fleets keep equipment scarce.

(17:34) Jarrett describes an unprecedented buyout of a second-tier aerial equipment manufacturer’s inventory.

(21:03) Haul trucks and articulated trucks approach new-equipment pricing as lead times stretch toward a year.

(23:59) Trucking combines pent-up replacement demand with stronger data center and energy-related freight activity.

(25:53) Component suppliers become increasingly constructive on 2027 truck volumes.

(32:59) Trucking demand looks unusually industrial and project-driven rather than consumer-driven.

(33:47) Signs of improvement in agriculture collide with cautious dealers still recovering from used-equipment losses.

(36:40) A major trailer dealer estimates data centers drive

______________________________________________________________________Research Sponsors:Oxford Data Plan–The Home of Alternative DataAlphaSense–Decision Grade AICarbon Arc–The Infrastructure for the AI Economy

______________________________________________________________________

Pitch The PM Links:📩Early episode drops episode feedback on Substack Daily industry chatter and market color on LinkedIn 

Jarrett Harris Links:Jarrett Harris LinkedInIron Connect

Highlights:

Prediction markets are surging, but DraftKings is moving in the opposite direction. Is the issue market share? Rising customer acquisition costs? Or simply a reset from last year’s growth expectations?

In this episode, Bernie McTernan, CFA, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Needham & Company, breaks down the rapidly changing prediction-market landscape. We discuss Kalshi’s first-mover advantage, DraftKings’ strategy to replicate its regulated sportsbook playbook in currently unregulated states, Novig’s aggressive customer-acquisition push, and whether prediction markets meaningfully expand the long-term TAM for companies like DKNG.

With negative estimate revisions weighing on the stock, elevated short interest, and DraftKings trading at roughly 11x forward EV/EBITDA, the debate becomes increasingly interesting: how much of the bad news is already priced in—and could today’s investments create a much larger earnings opportunity over time?

“The stock's probably fifty percent lower than it was and the TAM's doubled.”

“Prediction markets aren't just sports. Soon you'll be able to bet the whisper number.”

“This is gonna be Robinhood on steroids.”

“The numbers are going down, short interest is going up. Why do you think that the investments and lower revisions this year are actually gonna have a benefit next year?”

Stocks: $DKNG, $FLUT

Topics: DraftKings, Kalshi, Prediction Markets, Sports Betting, FanDuel, iCasino, Novig, Polymarket, Customer Acquisition Cost, Market Share, Regulation, EBITDA, Sportsbooks

Not Investment Advice

[00:00:00] Introduction to Bernie McTernan, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Needham & Company.
[00:01:40] Kalshi's rumored $40 billion private valuation.
[00:02:45] What DraftKings' first NFL week of prediction-market share actually looked like.
[00:04:30] The retention data that killed the original bear case on sportsbooks.
[00:05:00] Mid-teens to 30–40% share — the playbook DraftKings wants to run again.
[00:08:00] Why the prediction-market regulatory battle could end up at the Supreme Court.
[00:11:40] The data showing almost no customer overlap between Kalshi and DraftKings.
[00:18:00] Hedge fund hit rates and betting the number instead of the stock.
[00:20:15] Fast futures, crypto, and the iCasino land grab.
[00:21:50] The potential path from $1 billion to $5–6 billion of EBITDA.
[00:27:45] Why states legalize gambling — budget deficits, not morality.
[00:31:25] A trough multiple on estimates burdened by TAM expansion investments.
[00:43:45] Novig's $50 million ad and the Caesars cautionary tale.

💡 This episode is presented by:

Carbon Arc — The Infrastructure for the AI Economy.
Free trial with code PTPM30:
https://www.carbonarc.co/onboarding?flow=professional&billing=monthly&source=lenses

Research Sponsors:

Fiscal.AI — Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure.
15% discount with code PITCH:
https://fiscal.ai/?via=pitch

Oxford Data Plan — The Home of Alternative Data:
https://oxford-dp.com/demo

AlphaSense — Decision Grade AI:
https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

Pitch The PM Links:

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for early episode drops, research updates, episode feedback, and the Pitch The PM Job Board:
https://pitchthepm.substack.com/

Doug Garber on LinkedIn:
https://linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508

Bernie McTernan, CFA Links:

LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/bernie-mcternan-cfa-84045a23/

Needham & Company:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/needham-&-company/

Chandler Bocklage spent nearly two decades working alongside Steve Cohen, managing a portfolio before leading Business Development at Point72. In this episode, we discuss what separates good investors from great ones, how Point72 develops portfolio managers, why intellectual curiosity matters more than almost anything else, and how AI is reshaping the future of fundamental investing.

If you've ever wondered what it really takes to become a successful PM, this is one of the most candid conversations from inside the walls of legendary investment firm Point72.

“Alpha decay has been compressing and compressing. There are more and more people chasing the same alphas.”

“You have to have different duration, you have to have different catalyst paths, you have to have different thought processes because”

“Honestly, I think that's what it really comes down to. The sacrifices…”

"We don't think AI replaces analysts or PMs."

Highlights:

(01:31) The intellectual curiosity that defines Steve Cohen

(04:24) The unspoken sacrifices behind being great at this job

(04:56) The Kobe, Jordan, and Brady comparison to elite investing

(07:48) The origins of LaunchPoint and building a real development path

(10:24) Why AI won't replace analysts or portfolio managers

(14:41) What actually makes an investment process repeatable

(29:47) The talent war, mega-guarantees, and buy versus build

(33:12) The biggest mistake of his career — and what it taught him

(35:18) Why Steve Cohen stepped back from trading to build the firm

Topics: Point72, Steve Cohen, Portfolio Management, AI, Fundamental Investing, Risk Management, Analyst Development

______________________________________________________________________

💡 This episode is presented by Carbon Arc–The Infrastructure for the AI Economy. 30 Days free with code PTPM30

Research Sponsors:Oxford Data Plan–The Home of Alternative Data. Ping Makay Redd for a trial.

AlphaSense–Decision Grade AI. Free trial at https://www.alpha-sense.com/pitch/ Fiscal.AI–Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure. Use code PITCH for 15% off______________________________________________________________________

Pitch The PM Links:📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: https://pitchthepm.substack.com Doug Garber on LinkedIn for daily market color: https://linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

Point72 Links:Chandler Bocklage on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chandler-bocklage-476518a6/Point 72: https://point72.com/ ______________________________________________________________________

In 2001, Ed Salib walked into TimesSquare Capital Management as the firm's first intern. Twenty-five years later, he's co-PM of the TimesSquare Quality Mid Cap Growth ETF ($TSCM). So what does a 25-year fundamental investor do when one of the market's most debated stocks goes on sale?

Ed passed on DoorDash's 2021 IPO, kept it in his research “bullpen,” and bought the 20% sell-off on conservative early-2025 guidance. He got a second bite when the stock fell from the mid-200s to ~$140 this spring on fears it could be "vibe-coded away."

In the episode, we dig into why scale and density are the moat Grubhub never built, how DashPass and grocery are lifting order values, why Ed forecasts mid-20s growth through decade-end vs. the Street's high teens, and why the end of an internal investment cycle could surprise investors to the upside on margins.

"They gave initial guidance in early 2025 for EBITDA that disappointed and the stock sold off twenty percent. That was our entry point."

“We think they can go low to mid twenties versus the Street more like high teens over the next several years till the end of the decade.”

“I'm looking at the real-time Oxford data. It has August growing 31%...the Street’s at 21% for the quarter.”

We cover:
● TimesSquare's consumer filter: durable, needs-based demand, and why "fashion was a four-letter word"
● The three-sided marketplace, two-thirds US restaurant share, and why Grubhub lost the suburbs
● DashPass, grocery and DoubleDash: how grocery lifts order value and driver economics
● Why Ed passed on the IPO, what changed in 2024, and how he sized the 2025 entry
● The variant view: low-to-mid-20s growth vs. the Street's high teens
● The bear case: cost to grow, Instacart, Uber, PE-backed competition, and Deliveroo/ERP
● How Ed sets base, bull and bear price targets
● How TimesSquare uses Claude, MCPs and AlphaSense in research

Highlights:
(0:48) Ed's 25 years at TimesSquare, from first intern to co-PM
(3:16) What TimesSquare looks for in a consumer stock
(8:08) Why DoorDash is compelling: scale, founder-led, and capital allocation
(11:06) Why the business exists and where Grubhub went wrong
(13:20) DashPass, 45M members, and grocery
(16:09) Carbon Arc data: grocery order values rising from ~$51 to ~$63
(18:11) Robotaxis and drones: bull-case upside
(20:44) Passing on the 2021 IPO and what changed in 2024
(23:50) The 2025 guidance sell-off: "That was our entry point"
(25:36) The 2026 AI sell-off and "vibe-coded away" bear case
(28:55) Low-to-mid-20s growth vs. the Street's high teens
(30:52) Incremental margins, ERP, and EBITDA revisions
(32:23) Deliveroo integration and the 2026 investment year
(35:25) ODP shows August accelerating to +31% YoY
(37:20) DoorDash beyond restaurants
(40:01) Valuation at ~22x NTM EV/EBITDA and the bear case
(45:29) Economics with merchants and drivers
(49:27) Base, bull and bear price targets
(52:05) "We're a Claude shop": AI in research
(54:47) Security and ring-fencing research

💡 This episode is presented by Oxford Data Plan–The Home of Alternative Data. Ping Makay Redd for a trial (professional investors only) — https://www.linkedin.com/in/makay-redd-122a4364/

Research Sponsors:
AlphaSense–Decision Grade AI. Complimentary trial at https://www.alpha-sense.com/pitch/
Carbon Arc–The Infrastructure for the AI Economy. 30 Days free with code PTPM30
Fiscal.AI–Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure. Use code PITCH for 15% discount

Pitch The PM Links:
📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: https://pitchthepm.substack.com
Doug Garber on LinkedIn for daily market color: https://linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508

TimesSquare Links:
TimesSquare Capital Management: https://www.tscmllc.com/
TimesSquare Quality Mid Cap Growth ETF ($TSCM): https://tscmetfs.com/funds/tscm/

Stocks mentioned: $DASH

Not Investment Advice.

In 2019, Ken Griffin, Founder & CEO of Citadel, was looking for some of the best risk-takers on Wall Street. He landed on Rich Falk-Wallace, then a top analyst at Viking, who went on to become a Portfolio Manager at Citadel’s Surveyor Capital.

So what comes next after becoming a PM at Citadel at 29?

For the past five years, Rich has been building Arcana, a financial technology platform designed to help the world’s top hedge funds and asset managers make smarter decisions, faster. His philosophy is heavily influenced by Steve Jobs: obsess over the details and build products that genuinely delight customers.

In this episode, Rich breaks down the secular growth of beta-zero products, the rapid expansion of separately managed accounts (SMAs), the rise of alpha capture, and how human investment signals can complement quantitative systems. We also discuss portfolio construction, product-market fit, and how Arcana is integrating AI across its platform while staying focused on the customer.

“How did you convince Stanley Druckenmiller to be your seed investor?”

“The problem of portfolio construction is way closer to solved than that last mile of, ‘What’s a good idea?’”

“The allocation of dollars in public markets is headed towards beta one or beta zero products.”

“SMA-type products are growing massively in every direction. And that comes from allocators of every kind — sovereign wealth funds, endowments…”

Topics: Arcana, Citadel, Surveyor Capital, Viking, Hedge Funds, Financial Technology, Separately Managed Accounts, Beta Zero, Alpha Capture, Portfolio Construction, Investment Research, Artificial Intelligence, APIs, MCPs, Product-Market Fit

*Not Investment Advice

[00:00:27] Rich’s journey from distressed credit and public equities into financial technology.

[00:02:20] Why timing, experience, and energy pushed him to make the entrepreneurial leap.

[00:04:07] Why domain expertise helps — but nobody has a “right to win.”

[00:08:43] What it takes to earn backing and why product obsession matters.

[00:11:07] Arcana’s “platform maximalist” approach to software, APIs, MCPs, Excel, and LLMs.

[00:14:35] “If you think something is easy, it’s because you’re the buyer.”

[00:17:11] Why founders need to forget how hard something is and focus on the customer experience.

[00:19:56] Learning to love the incremental process of building.

[00:22:38] Finding product-market fit and the shift toward beta-one and beta-zero products.

[00:26:52] Why separately managed accounts are growing explosively.

[00:28:11] What an SMA is and how it differs from a commingled fund.

[00:31:03] How Arcana helps allocators analyze risk, performance, attribution, and repeatability.

[00:34:20] Mock portfolios, analyst tracking, and creating better feedback loops for investment talent.

[00:40:58] Alpha capture and turning human conviction signals into systematic portfolios.

[00:45:45] How Arcana uses AI internally to build software.

[00:47:32] Measuring the ROI of AI and token spending.

[00:49:58] MCPs, on-platform AI, and giving different investors different ways to access the same insights.

[00:54:51] Is Arcana a software company or a data company? Why Rich sees it as both.

[00:59:17] Rich’s philosophy of delighting customers and continually improving the product.

💡 This episode is powered by:

Fiscal.AI: Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure
https://fiscal.ai/

Pitch The PM Links:

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates, new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board:
https://pitchthepm.substack.com/

Doug Garber on LinkedIn for daily market color:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508

Rich Falk-Wallace Links:

Rich Falk-Wallace on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/rich-falk-wallace/

Arcana:
https://www.arcana.io/

Daniel Pilling, Co-PM of the Sands Capital Global Growth Fund, has spent nearly 20 years investing across long-only and long-short strategies, including time at Fidelity, Millennium, and Balyasny. Today at Sands Capital, he takes a very different approach: concentrated, deep-dive investing in high-quality growth companies with the potential to compound for years.

In this episode, Daniel breaks down why he believes the AI investment cycle is still incredibly early. We discuss $NVDIA, $TSMC, $ASML, memory, AI agents, the return on GPU infrastructure, and why compute could remain supply constrained for a long time. Daniel also explains why Anthropic's growth has been unlike anything he's seen before and how Sands thinks about finding the long-term winners as AI diffuses across the economy.

If you're wondering whether the AI trade has gone too far—or whether we're still at the beginning of a much larger cycle—this conversation offers a long-term investor's framework for thinking about what comes next.

"I've never seen anything like this."

"We're going to be supply constrained in terms of compute for a very long time."

“The reason for that is, again, the low penetration and the high ROI of what’s happening.”

"Anthropic and agentic AI is incredible. And it's just going viral and the pace of adoption is unheard of."

Stocks: $NVDA, $TSM, $MU, $ASML, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META, $AMD, $ZM

Topics: Sands Capital, Artificial Intelligence, NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, Memory, AI Agents, Anthropic, Compute, Semiconductors, GPU Economics, Long-Term Investing, AI Infrastructure, AI Innovator Fund

*Not Investment Advice

[00:00:00] Introduction to Daniel Pilling, Co-PM of the Sands Capital Global Growth Fund.

[00:01:15] Daniel’s path from banking and multi-manager investing to long-term growth.

[00:03:02] How Daniel became obsessed with investing at 12.

[00:04:13] Why Daniel left Millennium and Balyasny for Sands Capital.

[00:05:14] Sands Capital’s philosophy: concentrated portfolios, deep research, and long-term ownership.

[00:07:32] Why memory and NVIDIA remain high-conviction AI investments.

[00:09:54] NVIDIA’s market share and why open-source AI could support GPU demand.

[00:12:20] Why NVIDIA, Cerebras, Trainium, and TPUs can all win.

[00:14:13] The case for a memory shortage as AI agents scale.

[00:19:00] Why memory may not follow a traditional cyclical pattern.

[00:22:13] AI infrastructure returns and increasingly valuable compute.

[00:23:48] Why rising older-GPU prices challenge depreciation concerns.

[00:24:23] Anthropic’s growth, Zoom during COVID, and rapid agentic AI adoption.

[00:26:46] Why AI compute could remain supply constrained and create an “upside cliff.”

[00:28:34] Why Daniel compares AI adoption to electricity.

[00:30:42] How AI could make investment research faster and more effective.

[00:32:03] Why ASML and TSMC remain key AI infrastructure constraints.

[00:34:28] Generating differentiated returns through multi-year views.

[00:37:52] Why 99% of daily market information doesn’t matter.

[00:39:52] Humility in investing and recognizing when the Zoom thesis changed.

[00:43:42] Why AI remains early, underpenetrated, and rapidly improving.

[00:46:22] Sands Capital’s AI exposure across semis, memory, cloud, and software.

[00:52:56] The case for Meta despite rising CapEx and declining free cash flow.

[00:56:45] The fund’s AI exposure and global diversification.

[00:58:14] The AI Innovator Fund thesis: low penetration, constrained compute, and AI winners.

💡 This episode is powered by:

Oxford Data Plan: Request a Demo 

AlphaSense: Request a Demo

Pitch The PM Links:

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

Sands Capital Links:Daniel Pilling on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniel-pilling-14343116/Sands Capital: https://www.sandscapital.com/

Tom Hardin, formerly known as “Tipper X,” helped the FBI unravel one of the largest insider trading investigations in hedge fund history. The FBI flipped him, convinced him to wear a wire that built more than 20 cases. The hero of the story was Tom’s wife, who stood by him the entire time, allowing him to survive the intense emotional weight.

In this episode, Tom walks through how he crossed the line, how easy it was to rationalize small trades as harmless, and how a handful of decisions ultimately destroyed his career. He explains what happened when the FBI approached him on the street, what it was like wearing a wire for two years, and why the $46,000 he made from four trades ended up being the price of his career. 

We also discuss the practical lessons investors should take from his story: why who you surround yourself with is the most important decision of your career, why compliance should be treated as a career protector, and how being in a pressured performance situation can change how good people act. 

Tom is now the author of Wired on Wall Street

"I blew up my career for $46,000."

 "Cheating is a choice."

“You have to think about who you're surrounding yourself with.” 

“If you're even that close to the line, you have to have a conversation with compliance.” 

*Not investment or legal advice.

Topics: Insider Trading, Tipper X, Hedge Funds, FBI, MNPI, Compliance,Securities Fraud, Risk Management, Investment Research, Wall Street 

[00:00:00] Introduction

[00:00:30] Tom Hardin’s history as Tipper X and role in the FBI insider trading investigation

[00:01:51] The FBI confronts Tom about four trades

[00:04:36] Why Tom advises contacting a lawyer before speaking to law enforcement

[00:05:03] How fund pressure began shifting Tom’s decision-making

[00:10:52] Receiving an acquisition tip and deciding whether to act

[00:11:10] Crossing the line by passing the tip to another investor

[00:13:17] The need, opportunity, and rationalization behind Tom’s trade

[00:14:53] How his boss’s response reinforced Tom’s rationalization

[00:16:42] How information-sharing escalated into a $15,000 payoff

[00:18:57] Discovering others had already cooperated with law enforcement

[00:21:41] Wearing a wire without a lawyer or cooperation agreement

[00:24:24] Drawing a line with the FBI and being exposed as Tipper X

[00:25:46] How cooperation affected sentencing and Tom’s felony convictions

[00:27:58] The line between cooperation and entrapment as an informant

[00:31:51] Telling his wife, panic attacks, and her support during the investigation

[00:36:03] How running gave Tom structure after his career ended

[00:37:03] Insider trading: material, non-public information and breach of duty

[00:39:42] Compliance questions around using LLMs in investment research

[00:40:38] Why research notes matter when trades are questioned later

[00:42:29] Risks from an investor’s research and outside relationships

[00:44:05] Expert networks and risks around political intelligence firms

[00:46:53] Risks for public company board members with material information

[00:47:41] Congressional stock trading and proposed restrictions

[00:50:21] The lasting effects of a felony conviction and federal expungement

[00:53:33] Why Tom calls compliance the “chief career protector”

💡 This episode is powered by:

Fiscal.AI: - Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure

AlphaSense: Request a Demo

Pitch The PM Links:

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

Tipper X Links: 

Tom Hardin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tipperx 

Tipper X: https://www.tipperx.com/ 

Wired On Wall Street Book: https://www.tipperx.com/book

Tipper X on X: https://x.com/iamtipperx   

My former colleague and banking guru, James Abbott, is living his passion with the launch of Diligence Capital Management (DCM).

DCM runs a concentrated, net-long financials strategy alongside a tighter-net long/short financials portfolio. James and his team bring more than 50 years of combined experience in financial services—and a deep understanding of how banks operate, where they underperform, and what it takes to improve them.

In this episode, James explains why DCM became actively involved with Eagle Bancorp ($EGBN), how he identified an underperforming bank in need of change, and why he believes the market is still underestimating its earnings power.

We also discuss lessons from the 2008 financial crisis and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, as well as why spending time inside a business can create an investing edge that is difficult to replicate from the outside.

"My goal was to be a portfolio manager just like Peter Lynch." 

"The market just doesn't really appreciate what's going on here." 

"The deep homework concept... go deeper than anybody else does." 

"The company should be earning about $6 a share." 

Stocks: $EGBN, $ZION 

Not Investment Advice. 

______________________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Introduction to James Abbott and the Eagle Bancorp investment thesis 

[00:02:14] How a Peter Lynch article inspired James Abbott’s investing career 

[00:03:46] Early career experiences at SNL Financial and FBR 

[00:05:44] Reflections on FBR’s research culture and working alongside Dan Ives 

[00:07:03] Lessons from generating positive returns during the 2008 financial crisis 

[00:08:07] Moving from the sell side to executive leadership at Zions Bancorporation 

[00:09:17] Building a significant ownership stake in Zions through personal investment 

[00:10:28] Founding Diligence Capital Management and launching the firm 

[00:11:46] The impact of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse and banking sector contagion 

[00:13:43] How market narratives and deposit flows can pressure banks 

[00:15:02] Diligence Capital Management’s portfolio construction and leverage approach 

[00:16:22] Activist investing through special purpose vehicles and concentrated opportunities 

[00:16:37] Why Eagle Bancorp became a high-conviction investment 

[00:17:48] Assessing Eagle Bancorp’s earnings power and excess capital 

[00:19:09] Concentration risk and the challenges facing Eagle Bancorp 

[00:20:47] Commercial real estate exposure and concerns around stale loan-to-value metrics 

[00:22:31] Insights into bank credit quality, appraisals, and regulatory oversight 

[00:24:35] Recommendations to strengthen Eagle Bancorp’s board composition 

[00:27:32] Office loan concentration and portfolio risk management 

[00:29:57] The process of engaging management and advocating for change 

[00:31:51] Corporate governance reforms and separating the chairman and CEO roles 

[00:34:22] Historical governance challenges at Eagle Bancorp 

[00:36:09] Proposed board additions and turnaround expertise 

[00:37:14] The push for a three-year performance improvement plan 

[00:38:48] Market reaction to credit loss reserves and the stock’s recovery 

[00:40:27] Why Diligence Capital believed the market mispriced Eagle Bancorp 

[00:41:14] The path to achieving $6 per share in earnings power 

[00:42:20] Closing thoughts on activism, value creation, and the future of Eagle 

______________________________________________________________________

Pitch The PM Episode Links:

Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠

James Abbott on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-r-abbott-investor  

This episode is powered by:

💡Oxford Data Plan: Request a Demo

💡AlphaSense: Request a Demo

I met Tim Arthurs, the second week when I joined Millennium and knew he was an “A” player. He still has notes from every time he called me on a stock. He’s a process guy. And it has led to his success. 

He founded Seaport Research Partners, which has become the fastest-growing independent equity research platform by attracting the top research analysts and empowering them with aligned incentives. Early in his career, he moonlighted as a QB coach for Heisman winner and #1 overall pick Bryce Young teaching him the importance of the right motion and process.  

“What have I learned from some of my biggest failures is keep getting up. You're bendable, you're not breakable”

"You can't be a big man at night and a little man in the morning"

We cover:

• The Bryce Young story — a Craigslist posting, a dad who lied about his kid's age, and six months of tennis balls and candy wrappers before he ever touched a football. It starts with good habits

• The MiFID II unlock: how unbundling and vote/rate-card transparency exposed what individual analysts are actually worth — and made an eat-what-you-kill platform possible for the first time

• The brutal math of the sell side: ~3,500 published analysts in North America, and two-thirds of coverage is "watered-down, check-the-box" — subsidized by banking and syndicate

• How Seaport recruits the top 1% of the 1%: never a recruiter, 550+ interviews, ~40 offers, 30+ conversions — the clients feed the talent

• The reference-check questions that actually work: "When did they make you money?" and "What's a 60-minute meeting with them worth?" — asked across 20-30 buy-siders until the trend is undeniable

• The 3-step analyst checklist: investment judgment (best call, worst call, the consensus view you think is wrong), research edge (what do you produce that clients can't get elsewhere — and what's proprietary in the process), and client franchise (your top 15 advocates who raise their hand no matter what)

• The salesperson hierarchy: good salespeople are concierge, great ones sell outcomes — "we get paid to anticipate, not analyze" — and the cream of the crop sell feelings: becoming an extension of the client's investment process

• "You can't be a big man at night and a little man in the morning"

• Why analysts leave the bulge: "Why do I get comped down 10-15% a year when my franchise wasn't down?" — and what they control at Seaport: coverage, distribution, pricing, input and output

• The three-stage distribution model: ~400-500 readership, top-100 tactical, top-40 opt-in

• Proof of concept: #1 global market-share gainer at some of the biggest wallets on the planet, 3 → 30+ analysts in five years, and only one analyst ever lost

• The next five years: the best 45 analysts in the U.S., replicating the model in Europe and Asia, and filling the void the bulge brackets left

• Triathlons, 1,440 minutes a day, and the 5% you owe yourself — plus the cause closest to home: the Epilepsy Foundation of Chicago and his daughter Athena

_______________________________________________________________

💡 This episode is powered by Fiscal.AI - Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure

Pitch The PM Episode Links:

Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠

Links:

Tim Arthurs on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/timothy-arthurs-06b3179/

Seaport Research Partners: https://seaportrp.com/

Seaport Global: https://seaportglobal.com/

Chicago Epilepsy Foundation: https://epilepsychicago.org/ 

Gil Luria and I dig into the bull case after another blockbuster quarter with 93% YoY growth. The reason Palantir wins is their head start on building an enterprise-wide ontology, unconventional usage of forward-deployed engineers in their SaaS model, and customer-aligned, outcome-based pricing. We debate $PLTR’s valuation, future growth trajectory, and AI-driven software budget crowd-out.

“Retail investors figured it out first, bid it up all the way to $200. Institutional investors were always caught a step behind, including most of the sell side.”

“The bull case is that the stocks’ valuation is now, 50x forward cash flow, not $200, 2% yield, and they're growing 90%, 93% up from 85% last quarter”

 “They get to cherry pick customer, deliver results, and win. (8:24) That's when we learned over the last year.”

“This is the best software company in the world. Maybe the best company in the world.”

Stocks mentioned: $PLTR, $AI, $IBM, $MSFT, $NVDA, $SNOW, $DDOG, $CRWD, $SHOP

*Not Investment Advice. Disclosure: The author has a short position in PLTR as of the episode recording; that may change at any time. 

______________________________________________________________________

Highlights:

(1:26) Palantir accelerates — 93% U.S. commercial growth and strong government demand.
(2:18) How Gil went from valuation skeptic to calling Palantir one of the world’s best companies.
(5:13) What makes Palantir different: forward deployed engineers, ontology, AI and outcome-based pricing.
(8:26) How Palantir delivers customized solutions at scale.
(9:06) Why its engineering talent and brand are hard to replicate.
(10:34) Ontology explained — mapping company data to how the business works.
(13:29) Palantir’s post-9/11 origin story and original problem.
(15:23) A 157% net retention rate and expansion within large customers.
(16:42) Why Palantir’s chief revenue officer came from a legal background.
(17:48) Gil’s valuation framework: Palantir deserves a premium to software peers.
(19:42) Why Palantir customers may be seeing unusually strong AI returns.
(21:43) Enterprise AI shifts from structured to probabilistic unstructured data.
(23:46) How AI spending is crowding out other technology budgets.
(26:48) From GPU hours to tokens to cost per task — AI economics move toward labor.
(29:10) Why AI-driven productivity could lead companies to hire more people.
(30:29) How AI compressed Gil’s research workflow from weeks to near real time.
(35:06) Gil’s AI stack and Microsoft as D.A. Davidson’s enterprise control plane.
(37:41) Are companies handing proprietary advantage to frontier AI models?
(38:38) Palantir’s sovereignty pitch and risks of relying on one frontier model.
(42:45) Why Palantir prefers model flexibility and NVIDIA’s Nemotron models.
(43:52) NVIDIA’s strategy: coordinate the AI ecosystem, not just sell chips.
(46:08) The Palantir bear case — extraordinary growth eventually decelerates.
(48:02) Why slower growth could still support a larger future cash-flow base.
(50:35) Why Gil’s Palantir estimates remain close to consensus despite his bullish view.
(52:14) The institutional-investor problem: limited revenue disclosure.
(53:49) Gil’s belief in Palantir’s mission.
(54:04) Doug summarizes the bull and bear cases: ontology, engineering, valuation, and deceleration.

______________________________________________________________________

💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/💡 Fiscal.AI - Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure

Pitch The PM Links:

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠Doug Garber on LinkedIn for daily market color: : https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

Gil Luria Links:DA Davidson: https://www.dadavidson.com/ Gil Luria on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gil-luria-79347a2/ Gil Luria on X: https://x.com/gilluria 

She Quit at 29 With No Code, No Co-Founder, No Funding – Now Hudson Labs Is Finance AI that has a “No Hallucination Guarantee”

Kris Bennatti (@)  CEO Hudson Labs (Toronto), a former forensic-accounting data scientist who built the first LLM for finance, back in 2019 before anyone knew what to make of it. Her co-founder/CTO Suhas Pai literally wrote the book – O'Reilly's "Designing Large Language Model Applications."

"If you try to pull multi-period KPIs beyond four quarters with a generalist tool, you'll get one wrong number 30% of the time."

We cover:

• The leap: quitting a great job at 29 with no funding, no co-founder, and not one line of code written  "those choices are just a reflection of poor risk assessment capabilities"

• The first hard lesson: the academic papers claiming AI could predict fraud were poisoned by target leakage, the training data contained the outcome. The product she quit her job to build didn't work, and she rebuilt from scratch

• The forensic risk score: 70+ means a one-in-three chance of an SEC enforcement action within three years and 3x the likelihood of a securities lawsuit  used by investors, D&O insurers pricing risk, and plaintiff-side class-action firms. "We specialize in selling to the enemy."

• Why generalist LLMs hallucinate on financial numbers: effective context length vs the advertised window, the two-to-three-earnings-calls attention limit, and why hallucination is really LLM memory bleeding into real data

• The Hudson Labs answer: AI-specific pre-processing of every filing, transcript, and presentation retrieve the whole table, the units, the currency, consolidated-vs-segment and a no-hallucination guarantee, the first of its kind

• Tone as a screen: find the most stressed-out CEOs, the most confident CFOs, track deflection on analyst Q&A over time  impossible unless tone is stored in the embeddings

• The soft-guidance problem: why "capex is now expected to be…" slips past generalist AI, and the pathways built to never miss a guidance cue

• The server useful-life screen: every hyperscaler raising estimates in a follow-the-leader wave and Amazon as the only one to cut

• The cost story nobody's pricing: a 500-company AI-ecosystem deep dive that cost $200 on Hudson Labs vs ~$13,000 on a frontier-model API at lower accuracy  and why cost efficiency becomes the tailwind as subsidies fade

• The business today: ~100 hedge fund clients plus Fortune 100s, insurers, and law firms and a new $100/month tier

Highlights:

 (1:13) Quitting at 29 with nothing but the problem

(5:34) The target-leakage discovery — the papers were wrong

(9:46) Suhas Pai — the co-founder who wrote the book

(13:10) How Hudson Labs differs from the AI-startup wave

(15:30) Why generalist LLMs get numbers wrong — context and attention

(23:24) The worst strategic decision — and pivoting when short sellers shrank

(28:21) Demo: KPIs with verbatim call commentary, no hallucinations

(35:30) The infrastructure behind the guarantee

(39:34) Tracking Waymo vs Uber when the stats aren't standard

(46:39) The forensic risk score — and Meta's rising off-balance-sheet risk

(52:00) The server useful-life wave — everyone up, Amazon down

(55:14) $200 vs $13,000 — the deep-dive cost math

(57:00) The next three years and the new $100/month tier

______________________________________________________________________

💡 This episode is powered by:

Fiscal.AI: Contact Sales

Pitch The PM Links:

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠Doug Garber on LinkedIn for daily market color: : https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

Hudson Labs Links:Kris Bennatti: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kbennatti/ 

Hudson Labs: https://www.hudson-labs.com/ 

"Our numbers are not even half of consensus. Treat the syndicate's number as an extremely optimistic bull case."

"We think we're already very optimistic—but consensus is even more optimistic."

"Launch is what makes 100% of the value of SpaceX."

"Frontier AI is building very high barriers to entry."

"Everybody wants to be part of the SpaceX story."

Pierre Ferragu, Head of Tech Infrastructure at New Street Research, joins the show to break down SPCX’s sum-of-the-parts valuation and the key debates in the stock.

We dig into:

• Why Starlink has a structural cost advantage over traditional broadband. The tell is that Starlink is already sold out in places: raising prices in capacity-limited markets while adding 0.5-1M subs a month — which is why the V3/Starship ramp is now the gating factor.

• The Starship launch being the next catalyst. The model needs ~1 Starship launch a week; New Street runs ~1 year behind Elon's timeline — a reminder that Musk's targets have a "world-class track record of being late but delivered"

• The xAI valuation framework: a ~$575B base value from a $750B-$1T 2030 market at ~15% share (on Anthropic/OpenAI's ~4.6x 2030 revenue) — and why it's a balanced oligopoly, not winner-take-all, so no one gets to run away with it.

• The spot-vs-planned compute arb: ~$50B/GW (the $15B / 0.3GW Anthropic deal) vs CoreWeave's ~$12B/GW — and why that premium may not last.

• The setup that should keep you honest: consensus was built on Elon-optimism to sell the deal; the stock will trade quarter-to-quarter on "where there's light" (Starlink subs, Starship launches), through 6-12 volatile months of lockup unwinds and index inclusion. 

• The Debate: Overly optimistic earnings revisions vs a cost advantage in the space frontier led by the great entrepreneur of our time, Elon Musk

  
  

This episode was originally a Pitch The PM webinar sponsored by Alpha Sense on June 22nd. Get free access to all of our webinars on our substack

Stocks: $SPCX, $TSLA

Topics: SpaceX, Starlink, Starship, xAI, Frontier AI, Space Economy, Satellite Internet, Launch Economics, Artificial Intelligence, Infrastructure Investing

*Not Investment Advice

_____________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Introduction to Pierre Ferragu, New Street Research, and why the firm is uniquely positioned to analyze SpaceX.
[00:03:59] How New Street frames the SpaceX investment thesis for institutional investors.
[00:06:32] SpaceX sum-of-the-parts valuation: Starlink, Direct-to-Cell, Launch, and xAI.
[00:10:05] Why Starlink has a major cost advantage over traditional broadband.
[00:15:49] Starlink pricing, subscriber growth, and global expansion.
[00:20:23] Pierre’s firsthand experience using Starlink.
[00:23:10] Valuing Starlink and its long-term free cash flow potential.
[00:27:36] Why Starship is the most important catalyst for SpaceX.
[00:37:22] How SpaceX disrupted the launch industry.
[00:44:25] Pierre’s valuation framework for xAI and Frontier AI.
[00:53:56] Meta, open-source models, and Chinese AI companies.
[00:57:19] Why xAI can command premium pricing for compute capacity.
[00:59:36] Pierre’s variant view versus Wall Street consensus.
[01:01:04] What investors should watch after the IPO.
[01:02:45] Pierre’s outlook for SpaceX shares.

_____________________________________________________________

💡 This episode is powered by:

AlphaSense: Request a Demo

Pitch The PM Links:

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠

Follow Doug Garber on LinkedIn for daily market color: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

"Our data is powering the infrastructure of this massive new market." 

"Building Data-as-a-Service is a very, very hard business." 

"difficult problems have big rewards"

"You're making decisions on complete gut." 

Braden Dennis is the true definition of an entrepreneur. He started a podcast in his college dorm room and now runs an industry leading Fintech. Fiscal.ai has pivoted three times since inception and is now focused on building the latest generation financial data company using delivery speed and rapid product iteration as its competitive advantage.

Companies mentioned: Google Finance ($GOOGL), Claude, OpenAI, Bloomberg, Fiscal AI, Perplexity.

Thank you to Fiscal.AI, our sponsor of the Wall Street Entrepreneur series!

______________________________________________________________________ 

Highlights

[00:00:18] Introduction to Braden Dennis and Fiscal AI

[00:01:44] Braden Dennis's investing background and early podcasting journey

[00:02:58] Influential investing books and lessons that shaped his entrepreneurial approach

[00:05:27] Overview of Fiscal AI's financial data business and competitive advantages

[00:07:29] Origins of Stratosphere and the launch of FinChat

[00:08:39] FinChat's viral growth following the release of large language models

[00:11:09] Raising seed capital and demonstrating early startup traction

[00:11:27] Product-market fit and the importance of rapid iteration

[00:13:22] Advice for founders on fundraising and seed-stage milestones

[00:15:26] Why the company shifted from a retail investing platform toward data infrastructure

[00:16:07] Building proprietary financial datasets and owning the underlying content

[00:19:11] Transitioning from software subscriptions to B2B data feeds

[00:20:00] Startup decision-making, uncertainty, and operating on imperfect information

[00:21:59] Startup moats, competition, and scaling from zero to one

[00:24:09] Customer retention, activation, and key business metrics

[00:25:52] AI infrastructure, token usage, and building data products at scale

[00:28:32] Product roadmap, data coverage expansion, and competitive positioning

[00:30:18] MCP integrations and delivering financial data directly into AI workflows

[00:31:36] Global data coverage, ownership data, transcripts, and company KPIs

[00:34:22] Total addressable market for financial data and long-term revenue goals

[00:36:40] Scaling from $10 million to $50 million in annual recurring revenue

[00:38:41] Creating a news product focused on signal rather than noise

[00:42:36] Managing emotions and maintaining perspective as a founder

[00:43:23] Leadership lessons and the risks of impulsive decision-making

[00:44:18] Demonstration of Fiscal AI's terminal, API, and investor tools

[00:46:37] AI-powered research workflows using Claude, Codex, and MCP integrations

[00:49:27] Data ownership, model training, and the value of accurate financial information

[00:53:00] Handling adjusted financial metrics and analyst workflows

[00:53:58] Building custom investor dashboards and the future of AI-assisted research 

______________________________________________________________________

Pitch The PM Links:

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠

Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

Fiscal.AI Links:

Braden Dennis on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/braden-dennis-881a88b0/  

Fiscal AI - https://fiscal.ai/  

"When I see short interest go up into the right... I want to dig deeper."

"We came in as a long at first... then we followed the evidence to get to the short side."

"Magic has been the crown jewel of the company—but we think expectations have gotten too high."

[Using Carbon Arc data] “average weekly users on the app through quarter to date to q2 it's down 11 percent”

"You have to be intellectually honest. You can't just ignore evidence because it doesn't support your thesis."

Glenn and Vito won both the Fordham and Notre Dame Stock Pitch Competitions with a contrarian short thesis on Hasbro ($HAS). What began as a long idea quickly turned into a short after they dug into Magic: The Gathering, channel checks, local game store surveys, player sentiment, and Wizards of the Coast's product strategy.

In this episode, they walk through the full research process behind their pitch, discuss why they believe Magic's recent growth is unsustainable, and explain how primary research, financial modeling, channel checks, and alternative data on Carbon Arc helped shape their view. 

Stocks: $HAS

*Not Investment Advice 

Disclosure: I have a short position. That may change at anytime. 

______________________________________________________________________ 

[01:00:00] Introduction to Glenn Lee and Vito, winners of the Fordham and Notre Dame Stock Pitch Competitions, and their Hasbro short thesis.

[01:03:03] How the investment idea evolved from a long thesis into a short after deeper financial analysis.

[01:05:54] The two pillars of the Hasbro short thesis: slowing Magic: The Gathering demand and weakness in consumer products.

[01:09:18] Doug explains how to think about short interest, positioning, and identifying crowded trades.

[01:11:39] Breaking down Hasbro's business segments and why Wizards of the Coast drives nearly all of the company's profitability.

[01:15:41] Why Magic: The Gathering has maintained its competitive advantage for more than 30 years.

[01:21:43] The Universes Beyond strategy and why the team believes it changes Magic's long-term growth profile.

[01:23:04] Hasbro's recent growth, management expectations, and why the students believe Wall Street is too optimistic.

[01:30:15] Doug's framework for continuously testing an investment thesis and remaining intellectually honest as new evidence emerges.

[01:34:11] The research process behind forecasting Magic: The Gathering demand using channel checks and industry expertise.

[01:36:35] How product releases and aggressive pricing have accelerated Magic's recent growth.

[01:38:21] Survey results, player backlash, and the debate around the Universes Beyond product strategy.

[01:43:19] Channel checks with local game stores and what retailer ordering patterns reveal about future demand.

[01:52:26] Using secondary market pricing to measure player demand and forecast future Magic sales.

[01:56:14] The key bull case for Hasbro, why attracting new players may not be enough, and the team's concluding thoughts on the investment thesis.

______________________________________________________________________

💡 This episode is powered by:

Carbon Arc: 30 Days Free with Code PITCHTHEPM30

AlphaSense: Request a Demo

Pitch The PM Links:

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

“These [oil] cycles, and we can get into it, they move up in three waves. They go doubt, pullback, optimism, a pullback, and then parabolic euphoria.”

“The well count is starting to bottom out, and even as of the latest Texas Railroad Commission data that was just updating for this call, it looks like that's bottoming out too.”

“So I think the best ones that is now front and center is obviously the refiners, and I still think that there's a lot left in the tank.”

"If you go back and look at the mega tech capex... there is not one single metric around meeting a capital budget."

Robert Connors, the author of Crude Chronicles and advisor to funds that manage over $1 trillion such as T. Rowe Price walks us through his bullish oil cycle call in great detail with all the supporting charts. 

The logic is simple: well productivity is declining and the marginal cost of production is increasing. Therefore, oil prices are on the rise. 

Drawing on more than a century of industry data gathered by hand at the Library of Congress, Robert explains how oil cycles are driven not just by supply and demand, but by long-term productivity trends, capital allocation, and marginal production costs.

Stocks mentioned: PSX, MPC, VLO, CVX, XOM, BP, TTW, RIG, NE, DO, VAL

______________________________________________________________________ 

[00:00:00] Highlights 

[00:00:26] Introduction to Robert Connors and his long-cycle approach to energy research. 

[00:02:10] How the Iran conflict fits into Robert's three-wave commodity cycle framework. 

[00:04:28] Why well productivity—not traditional supply and demand forecasts—drives long-term oil cycles. 

[00:09:13] Evidence that U.S. shale productivity growth is slowing and what that means for future oil prices. 

[00:11:38] Comparing productivity trends across Bakken, Permian E&Ps, and integrated oil companies. 

[00:14:21] Where future global oil supply growth could come from beyond the Permian. 

[00:18:15] Understanding marginal production costs and why they establish the long-term floor for oil prices. 

[00:20:44] Robert's framework for estimating a sustainable oil price range despite geopolitical volatility. 

[00:24:35] Why refining margins are driven by secondary processing capacity rather than simple utilization rates. 

[00:29:50] Global refining capacity outlook and why Robert remains bullish on refiners. 

[00:32:54] Similarities between today's AI infrastructure spending and previous shale investment cycles. 

[00:36:41] Productivity cycles, technology investment, and the relationship between energy and growth stocks. 

[00:39:54] Robert's preferred investment opportunities, including refiners, integrated majors, and offshore drillers. 

[00:44:47] Why offshore drilling may be entering a favorable cycle with limited new rig supply. 

[00:51:24] How executive incentive structures influence capital allocation and shareholder returns in the offshore sector. 

[00:52:53] Where listeners can follow Robert Connors and Crude Chronicles. 

______________________________________________________________________

💡 This episode is powered by:

AlphaSense: Request a Demo

Pitch The PM Links:

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

Crude Chronicles Links:

Robert Connors on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robert-connors-cfa-cpa-oilinvestor/ 

The Crude Chronicles: https://thecrudechronicles.substack.com/ 

Sean Emory, CIO and Founder of Avory & Co., is one of my go-to investors when I want to pressure-test an investment thesis. While I tend to focus on earnings revisions and the Variant View checklist , Sean goes deep on products, competitive positioning, and invests where the world is heading. In this episode, we debate one of the biggest questions in tech investing today: Is Meta overspending on AI, or is Zuckerberg making the right long-term bet? 

We break down if Meta's AI strategy is working and what is driving the stock?

"Don't bet against Zuckerberg." 

"They have the biggest distribution platform in the world." 

"If you don't own your infrastructure, you run a lot of risk." 

"Distribution is arguably the most important strategic place to be here." 

"The burden on your brain—the cognitive load—amplifies." 

Stocks: $META, $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOGL, $MSFT 

Thank you to our episode sponsors Oxford Data Plan and Alpha Sense.

*Not Investment Advice 

______________________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Introduction to Sean Emory, Avory & Co., and the firm's investment approach.

[00:01:24] Building Avory around disciplined research and long-term investing.

[00:03:28] Why Meta has remained a core holding over the past decade.

[00:04:34] Mark Zuckerberg's leadership and Meta's long-term execution.

[00:09:00] Examining Meta's capital expenditure strategy and valuation.

[00:11:15] Why Meta's distribution advantage supports its AI investments.

[00:15:04] Sean's outlook for hyperscaler capital spending and infrastructure investment.

[00:16:42] Why owning AI infrastructure matters for large technology platforms.

[00:21:57] Discussion around potential equity financing and investor concerns.

[00:23:40] Balancing near-term free cash flow with long-term investment returns.

[00:26:48] What catalysts could change investor sentiment toward Meta.

[00:32:39] Meta's AI model development, product strategy, and competitive positioning.

[00:35:01] The AI tools Sean uses throughout his investment process.

[00:37:28] Using AI workflows, automation, and productivity systems within an investment firm.

[00:43:58] Portfolio sizing and valuation discipline for Meta.

[00:48:24] Whether investors should support Meta's aggressive AI investment strategy.

[00:52:10] Long-term expectations for Meta's free cash flow as capital spending stabilizes.

[00:57:15] Additional upside from Meta's AI partnerships and infrastructure investments.

💡 This episode is powered by:

Oxford Data Plan: Request a Demo

AlphaSense: Request a Demo

Pitch The PM Links:

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠

Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

Avory & Co Links: Sean Emory on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/seanemoryavory
Avory & Co https://www.avory.xyz/

Jarrett Harris, from Iron Advisor Insights was my go to person for industrial channel checks when I was at Citadel and Millennium. He’s from Peoria, IL, the original HQ of Caterpillar ($CAT) and spends his days talking to heavy equipment dealers. He is now part of Iron Connect, a dealer wholesale network with proprietary data that gives me an edge on when the heavy equipment cycles are inflecting.

After catching-up with Jarrett in this episode, it is likely we are seeing early signs of a price inflection for rental equipment potentially impacting: $URI, $EQPT, $SUNB, $HRI

"The data center build out is reshaping everything."

“Supply versus demand is normalized and is now edging toward scarcity rather than abundance."

"We've started to get more indications that rental rates are going higher."

"We're starting to hear more people in the used equipment market that are hoarding equipment."

“north of 80% of the equipment on their site was selling within two weeks. If I go back to September of ‘25, it was about 30%.”

Stocks:$URI, $CAT, $EQPT, $SUNB, $HRI

*Not Investment Advice

______________________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Introduction and highlights.

[00:00:25] Jarrett Harris introduces Iron Advisor Insights and its field research approach.

[00:01:44] Building a research business focused exclusively on heavy equipment and industrial machinery.

[00:03:48] How dealer, contractor, supplier, and equipment data are combined to identify industry trends.

[00:04:55] The machinery manufacturers and rental companies covered by Iron Advisor Insights.

[00:05:39] Why Caterpillar and equipment rentals are at the center of investor conversations.

[00:07:04] How AI data centers are changing construction demand and equipment utilization.

[00:09:39] Equipment supply, lead times, pricing, and the shift from abundance toward scarcity.

[00:12:09] Caterpillar's growing role in powering AI data centers.

[00:15:09] Why Caterpillar's dealer network creates a competitive advantage.

[00:17:19] Used equipment markets, dealer inventory, and signs of tightening supply.

[00:20:14] Rental rate trends and early indications of improving pricing power.

[00:21:55] How dynamic pricing is changing the equipment rental industry.

[00:24:09] EquipmentShare's impact on competition and rental pricing strategies.

[00:26:44] Why rental companies may be approaching an important pricing inflection point.

[00:28:38] How large data center projects are influencing equipment demand and contractor behavior.

[00:30:12] Geographic expansion of data center construction across North America.

[00:31:51] Comparing pricing between new and used construction equipment.

[00:33:07] Dealer inventory strategies and growing conviction around future equipment demand.

[00:35:33] Investor sentiment toward AI-driven construction versus broader economic activity.

[00:36:17] Infrastructure spending and improving conditions in construction markets.

[00:39:50] The long-term growth outlook for equipment rentals and OEM-backed rental fleets.

______________________________________________________________________

Pitch The PM Episode Links:

Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠

Iron Advisor Insights Links:Jarret Harris on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jarrettharris/Iron Advisors Insights: https://ironconnect.com/

Part 2 of the interview with Sonu Chawla, Co-Portfolio Manager at TimesSquare Capital Management, about one of her team's highest-conviction investment ideas in enterprise AI. Sonu explains why Snowflake sits at the center of the AI data ecosystem, how her team developed conviction to increase its position during a sharp software selloff, and why they believe enterprise AI adoption remains in its earliest stages. The conversation examines primary research, expert networks, valuation discipline, and the role of AI tools in investment research, highlighting how experienced analysts combine domain expertise with fundamental research to identify long-term growth opportunities before they become widely recognized.

ETF: TSCMTickers: SNOW

*Not Investment Advice. ______________________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Introduction and highlights to part 2 of this interview with Sonu Chawla.

[00:02:20] Snowflake's business model and why it is foundational to enterprise AI infrastructure.

[00:05:50] Why enterprise AI adoption is still in its earliest innings.

[00:08:05] How Snowflake differentiates itself from hyperscale cloud providers and competing data platforms.

[00:15:06] The investment thesis behind increasing the firm's Snowflake position during the software selloff.

[00:17:49] Why Cortex Code (CoCo) created a variant perception and wasn't reflected in company guidance.

[00:18:16] Customer adoption data, channel checks, and primary research that strengthened conviction.

[00:22:17] Using LinkedIn, expert calls, and management commentary as part of the research process.

[00:22:17] Balancing valuation discipline with high-growth investment opportunities.

[00:26:53] Why discounted cash flow analysis and free cash flow remain central to investment decisions.

[00:29:48] Comparing Snowflake's growth profile with Palantir and the broader enterprise AI landscape.

[00:31:20] How Times Square uses AI tools to accelerate investment research and improve productivity.

[00:33:20] Building an internal AI-enabled research ecosystem and connecting proprietary data sources.

______________________________________________________________________

Pitch The PM Episode Links:

Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠

TimesSquare Links:Sonu Chawla on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-chawla-cfa-0093612/TimesSquare: https://tscmllc.com/

💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/PTPM/

Against all odds, Sonu has shined at every step of her career. From getting into the Indian Institute of Technology to becoming a Co-PM at TimesSquare Capital Management.

We get into what it's like to stand in the Wall Street arena everyday after proving the “nah-sayers” wrong. 

And why she invests in mid-cap equities at TimesSquare Capital Management and the benefits of being early to investing in a transformational, high-growth company.

“It was a master class in trying to adapt to a world which did not look like you,”

“Working hard like someone who had been repeatedly doubted and told that there were others in line ahead.”

“I'm a student.  What drives me is intellectual curiosity. I want to learn and get better every day.”

“I want to show up every day in the arena.”

ETF: TSCMTickers: ARGX, SNOW

*Not Investment Advice. ______________________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Sonu Chawla's early interest in investing and journey through the Indian Institute of Technology.

[00:01:50] How consulting at Deloitte led to a career in professional investing.

[00:03:43] Growing up in a small town in India, overcoming barriers, and the importance of persistence and mentorship.

[00:08:46] Resilience, learning from mistakes, and what continues to motivate Sonu as an investor.

[00:10:32] Why TimesSquare Capital focuses on mid-cap growth investing and the long-term case for the asset class.

[00:14:27] TimesSquare's analyst-driven investment process and how the team develops investment ideas.

[00:19:26] Lessons from hedge fund investing and the importance of valuation discipline.

[00:21:09] Sonu's quality growth investment philosophy and investing before profitability inflection points.

[00:21:58] The Argenx case study and identifying businesses early in their scaling journey.

[00:25:08] How deep sector expertise helps analysts build conviction through primary research.

[00:26:24] Why specialized industry knowledge is the firm's competitive advantage.

[00:28:30] Launching the TimesSquare Quality Mid-Cap Growth ETF and why active ETFs appeal to investors.

______________________________________________________________________

Pitch The PM Episode Links:

Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠

TimesSquare Links:

Sonu Chawla on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-chawla-cfa-0093612/

TimesSquare: https://tscmllc.com/

In the new Pitch The PM series, The Wall Street Entrepreneur premier, Doug Garber speaks with former Citadel colleague, Eric Moster, CEO of Portrait Analytics and former portfolio manager at Millennium and Analyst at Surveyor Capital. Eric shares his transition from hedge fund investing into building AI-powered research tools purpose-built for institutional investors. The discussion explores how Portrait Research helps analysts monitor information flow, generate investment ideas, and accelerate deep fundamental research workflows. Eric explains the evolution of the platform from productivity software into a customized intelligence engine capable of identifying new opportunities based on an investor’s specific framework. They also examine the challenges of building AI products for hedge funds, balancing signal versus noise, scaling a startup, and why narrowing product focus became critical to Portrait’s growth strategy.  

_____________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Introduction to Eric Moster and his move from investing to entrepreneurship.
[00:00:36] Eric’s background at Citadel, Millennium, and Surveyor Capital.
[00:01:14] How ChatGPT changed Eric’s view of AI and investing.
[00:02:24] Joining Portrait Research alongside founder David Plon.
[00:03:55] Eric’s path from first business hire to CEO.
[00:05:28] Portrait’s evolution and product roadmap.
[00:05:36] Overview of Portrait’s AI research and monitoring tools.
[00:06:40] Tracking material information across industries.
[00:08:04] Doug’s experience using Portrait.
[00:08:48] Data quality challenges and filtering noise.
[00:10:55] Using Reddit and alternative sources for investment insights.
[00:11:50] Monitoring sentiment shifts and public reactions.
[00:12:51] Determining what information is truly material.
[00:14:29] Management guidance and investor interpretation.
[00:16:55] Embedding hedge fund expertise into AI systems.
[00:18:18] Why idea generation is the highest-value workflow.
[00:20:42] Introduction to Portrait Intelligence.
[00:22:03] Applying custom investment frameworks at scale.
[00:24:03] Ranking opportunities based on framework fit.
[00:25:10] Moving from productivity gains to revenue generation.
[00:26:44] Learning from historical investment decisions.
[00:29:41] Identifying recurring behavioral patterns.
[00:30:34] Conducting objective investment postmortems.
[00:31:35] Generating detailed turnaround investment reports.
[00:33:58] Expanding the investment funnel with AI.
[00:34:37] Why every framework is customized.
[00:35:44] Ideal customer profiles and use cases.
[00:36:52] Customer growth and adoption metrics.
[00:37:55] Team growth, runway, and go-to-market strategy.
[00:39:22] Pricing and product positioning.
[00:39:59] Lessons on startup focus and prioritization.
[00:41:20] Products Portrait intentionally shut down.
[00:43:43] Final thoughts on entrepreneurship and investing.

Links: 

Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508  

Eric Moster on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/eric-moster-3006779 

📩 Subscribe to our substack: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/ 

Priyal Maniar, Co-PM of TURF and Global Energy Analyst, dives deep into why T. Rowe - who manages $1.8 Trillion - is structurally bullish the oil cycle.The marginal cost of production is increasing and US shale geology has peaked meaning the next well is more expensive and less productive.

The recent U.S. - Iran war, wipes out the over supply from the start of the year and pulls forward the bullish productivity decline thesis. It also puts energy security in focus and improves demand for energy sources like coal. TURF expresses the bullish oil bet through an overweight position in Oil Sands producers such as Suncor (SU), Canadian Natural Resources and Cenovus Energy. Pyrial also highlights her top U.S. oil picks that have idiosyncratic catalysts in their FCF inflections coming up. Her top idea has free cash flow doubling over the next four years at flat prices with a great management team and a great balance sheet and ample low cost inventory. She also highlights three other names with ample inventory and FCF inflections. She notes that these stocks do well when large projects wind down free cash flow inflects.

🔍 What You’ll Learn:

• Why U.S. shale geology has peaked, and why that’s bullish, not bearish
• How to think about the marginal barrel at $70+ and rising
• Why Canadian Oil Sands offer the best duration in global energy
• How mining-style economics differ from shale (OPEX vs. CAPEX curve)
• The real math on Venezuela’s revival: $50-100B and 10 years
• Why energy security is now a structural demand driver
• How the Strait of Hormuz disruption changes Middle East midstream Global LNG after the Qatar train outages and project delays
• The coal-to-gas switching dynamic setting global gas prices
• Why AI power demand extends the runway for U.S. natural gas
• How electrification, nuclear, and SMRs fit into the energy stack
• Priyal’s top conviction names: Canadian E&Ps, and….How to use AI in the research process without getting front-runTimestamps[00:00] – Intro: U.S. Shale Peak Debate 01:00 – Why It Doesn't Matter If Shale Peaks: Cost Curve Matters 02:15 – Long Energy Cycles & S&P Energy vs. S&P 500 [03:30] – The Marginal Barrel Today: Guyana, Brazil, Middle East, Shale [05:00] – Shale Elasticity & Where Marginal Cost Goes Next[06:00] – Iran War Impact on the Oil Setup [07:15] – Energy Security as a Structural Demand Driver [08:30] – How to Express the Thesis in TURF[09:30] – Low-Cost U.S. E&Ps with Inventory & Balance Sheet [10:30]– The Canadian Oil Sands Bull Case [11:45] – Oil Sands Economics: Mining vs. Shale Decline Curves [13:00] – Why No New Greenfield Mines Get Sanctioned[14:15]– Venezuela: Heavy Oil Revival Math [15:30] – Chevron's Unique Position & Production Growth [16:45]– Political Risk: Venezuela vs. U.S. Election Cycles[18:00] – Middle East Egress & Pipeline Redundancies [19:15]– Aramco, ADNOC & National Project Dynamics [20:30] – East-West Pipeline Capacity & U.S. Expertise[21:45 ]– Global LNG: Qatar Outages & Project Delays [23:00] – Coal as the New Price-Setting Fuel [26:45] – Long-Term Bullish on Henry Hub [27:45] – Offshore Comeback: Conoco Alaska, Clearwater, Namibia, Guyana [30:30] – AI Power Demand & U.S. Gas Longevity [31:45] – Utilities, Nuclear & SMRs as Part of the Stack[33:00] – Advice for Aspiring Investors: Dig for the Next Insight [34:15] – How Priyal Uses AI in Her Research Process📩 Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug's structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5YListen on Apple Podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber speaks with Doug O’Laughlin, President of SemiAnalysis, about the explosive demand for AI infrastructure and the market reaction to Cerebras’ IPO. Doug O breaks down Cerebras’ wafer-scale chip architecture, its advantages in ultra-fast inference, and the limitations caused by memory scaling constraints. The discussion examines how NVIDIA continues to dominate large-scale AI workloads while specialized alternatives carve out niche roles in the broader compute ecosystem. They also explore the rise of agentic AI workflows, the growing economics of tokens and inference demand, and why frontier AI models are reshaping software development, legal work, and enterprise productivity. Doug O shares insights into how SemiAnalysis is using AI internally, why compute demand continues accelerating, and what the next wave of AI IPOs could mean for investors and the semiconductor industry.

Tickers: #CBRS, #NVDA, #CRWV

_____________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Doug O’Laughlin compares Cerebras’ inference speed advantage to an F1 car versus NVIDIA as a bus.

[00:00:20] Discussion of agentic AI workflows driving a major increase in compute demand.

[00:00:31] Introduction to the episode and the focus on Cerebras’ technology and IPO.

[00:01:36] Why Cerebras’ niche technology emerged during a historic compute shortage.

[00:02:47] Breakdown of Cerebras’ SRAM-based architecture and the original technology bet.

[00:03:55] Explanation of SRAM scaling limitations and memory density constraints.

[00:05:26] Whether Cerebras can evolve beyond its current inference niche.

[00:05:53] Emerging trends in disaggregated inference and hybrid AI architectures.

[00:08:46] Why Cerebras can outperform NVIDIA in specific low-latency inference use cases.

[00:09:10] The tradeoff between single-user speed and large-scale throughput.

[00:13:18] Discussion of small language models versus frontier AI models.

[00:13:45] Why Doug believes best-of-breed AI models continue to win in the market.

[00:17:18] Legal industry productivity gains and concerns around shared AI training data.

[00:18:07] How AI dramatically lowers the cost of accessing professional expertise.

[00:19:11] Sponsor discussion and transition into Cerebras’ stock performance.

[00:21:01] Doug’s perspective on the broader AI IPO environment and investor demand.

[00:24:59] Supply and demand dynamics for AI-related equities and semiconductor exposure.

[00:25:54] Comparison between equity enthusiasm and private credit caution in AI infrastructure.

[00:26:58] Why GPU pricing increases indicate overwhelming AI compute demand.

[00:28:30] Agentic AI workflows and cloud coding as the major inflection point for compute usage.

[00:28:38] SemiAnalysis spending over $10,000 per week on APIs to accelerate productivity.

[00:29:56] How AI tools are changing hiring needs and software engineering capabilities.

[00:30:18] Examples of collapsing information work timelines through AI automation.

[00:31:39] Disclosure discussion and SemiAnalysis’ relationships with leading AI companies.

[00:32:09] Doug O explains SemiAnalysis’ approach to independent research and updating priors.

[00:33:07] Doug O’Laughlin shares his background working on the buy side at Blue Capital.

[00:34:10] Future plans for SemiAnalysis and the rise of “tokenomics” research.

Links:

Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

Doug O’Laughlin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dougolaughlin/ 

💡 This episode is powered by the Oxford Data Plan. Use the link here for Complimentary access 

📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe

In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber speaks with Chris Murphy about his pre-IPO investment strategy and why $CBRS is his largest investment. Chris previously spent 17 years scaling a multi billion fund and is now focused on his pre-IPO PA (personal account) investment strategy.

Chris has dug-in deep, hitting the road and reading heaps of expert call transcripts from Alpha Sense and Third Bridge. He believes inference speed will become one of the most valuable advantages in the race to AGI (artificial general intelligence). The conversation examines the advantages of Cerebras’ wafer-scale chip design, the growing importance of fast inference for agentic AI workflows and the price/cost trade-off. OpenAI was the first mover, securing initial capacity and options. AWS has a term sheet for capacity. The chip market is evolving and Doug & Chris debate the implications for NVIDIA, Google and Amazon.

Tickers: $CBRS, $NVDA, $GOOG, $AMZN, $META

[00:00:00] Chris Murphy explains why AI inference speed will become a key competitive advantage.
[00:00:20] Doug Garber introduces Chris Murphy and discusses Cerebras’ IPO and price discovery.
[00:00:57] Chris Murphy shares his background in public and private market investing.
[00:03:44] Chris outlines his framework for evaluating pre-IPO investments.
[00:04:31] Why Chris believed inference would become the AI “money maker.”
[00:05:08] Chris explains how Cerebras removes bottlenecks in agentic AI workflows.
[00:06:07] Discussion on token economics, inference speed, and use case advantages.
[00:08:28] Cerebras’ position in fast inference versus Groq and NVIDIA.
[00:09:30] Breakdown of Cerebras’ wafer-scale chip design and routing fabric.
[00:11:48] Chris discusses the research behind his Cerebras investment thesis.
[00:12:35] Expert network transcripts, proprietary calls, and diligence methods.
[00:13:14] Chris walks through his revenue framework for OpenAI, AWS, and others.
[00:15:12] Discussion on customer concentration risk and OpenAI exposure.
[00:15:53] Why Amazon could benefit from combining Trainium with Cerebras chips.
[00:17:15] Competitive positioning versus Google TPUs and NVIDIA GPUs.
[00:18:39] Why inference is expected to outgrow training workloads.
[00:20:33] Chris explains his OpenAI revenue assumptions through 2033.
[00:23:48] How AWS and Anthropic fit into the broader Cerebras opportunity.
[00:26:24] Chris discusses Cerebras as an “arms dealer” in the AGI race.
[00:29:49] Feedback from engineers and users testing Cerebras chips.
[00:32:59] How AI systems route workloads across chips and inference models.
[00:34:54] Chris explains assumptions around Cerebras’ AWS inference share.
[00:36:35] Discussion on pricing, leasing models, and AWS exclusivity.
[00:39:49] Breakdown of G42, MBZUAI, and other customer relationships.
[00:42:55] Chris explains why the long-term revenue opportunity makes investors uncomfortable.
[00:45:38] Discussion on customer warrants and partnerships with OpenAI and AWS.
[00:49:25] Speculation around potential relationships with Meta and Google.
[00:50:16] Gross margin expectations, scalability, and long-term profitability.
[00:52:43] Doug Garber summarizes execution risks and the AI infrastructure landscape.
[00:55:19] Chris shares his long-term outlook on Cerebras and position sizing.
[00:59:16] Final thoughts on AI enthusiasm, IPO risks, and investing discipline.

Links:

Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 Chris Murphy on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrismurphyhq

Powered by AlphaSense. Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

Complimentary pre-built CBRS excel model — https://istari.insyncanalytics.com/pitchthepm/?model=IPO&template=CBRS

Subscribe to our newsletter: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe

This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Full disclosure: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber sits down with Priyal Maniar, Global Energy Investor at T. Rowe Price | Investment Analyst and Portfolio Manager of Natural Resources ETF (TURF) to discuss the path that led her to one of the most coveted firms on the street.

Priyal walks through her journey from BlackRock to T.Rowe, how an early passion for equity research and mentorship shaped her investing lens. She talks about T. Rowe's collaboratiove Analyst & PM invstment culture and what it actually takes to stand out at one of the top  investmet houses in the world.

This episode is all about Priyal's journey and investment process — how great stock pickers develop repeatable frameworks, build trust with colleagues and turn research into real capital allocation.

Stay tuned for Part 2 — where we dive deep into the energy cycle and TURF’s big Oil Sands bet… 

What you'll learn:

• How Priyal built her foundation through value-focused investing
• Inside T. Rowe’s intense interview process (30+ interviews, stock pitches)
• The traits that matter: curiosity, deep work, and flexible conviction
• How the $100B+ analyst-run fund works in practice
• How analysts build a track record before managing capital
• How ideas actually spread across a multi-trillion platform
• Why collaboration starts before the pitch
• The importance of field research and PM alignment
• How to build mindshare in under-owned sectors like energy
• Why process > being right once

Timestamps

00:00 – Intro

01:00 – Priyal’s Background: India → Early Market Exposure

02:00 – Breaking In: BlackRock → Brandywine & Value Investing Roots

03:15 – Reaching Back Out to T. Rowe Price & Interview Process

04:30 – What T. Rowe Looks For: Curiosity, Deep Research, Fit

05:30 – Role Today: Coverage & Analyst Responsibilities

06:30 – Inside the $100B+ Analyst-Run Research Fund

07:30 – TURF ETF & Expanding Access

08:15 – How Ideas Get Shared Across the Platform

09:15 – Reports, Meetings & “Walking the Floor” Culture

10:15 – PM Pushback & Real-Time Collaboration

11:15 – Field Research & Building Buy-In Early

12:15 – Gaining Mindshare as an Energy Analyst

13:15 – Process > Calls: Building Trust Over Time

Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.

https://pitchthepm.substack.com/

Presented by AlphaSense

Free trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5Y

Listen on Apple Podcasts: 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466

This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

In this episode, Doug Garber joins The Investment Memo to break down how hedge fund investors navigate macro volatility, manage risk inside low vol pod structures and stay focused on generating alpha.Doug shares how portfolio managers think during “risk-off” environments, why macro should not be your core thesis, and how strategies evolve inside multi-manager platforms.The conversation also dives into how he managed a portfolio as a PM, short selling dynamics, and the structural realities of hedge fund risk frameworks.🔑 TakeawaysRisk management over conviction during macro volatilityMacro matters—but shouldn’t be the core part of your thesisHigh short interest stocks work over time—but can be painful during unwindsThe best portfolios aim to neutralize what they can’t predict⏱️ Chapters[00:00] Intro[01:05] Career Path to Hedge Fund PM[04:39] Navigating Macro Regime Shifts[06:05] Pod Shop Dynamics & Talent Retention[07:01] Hedge Fund SMAs[07:15] Fundamental L/S Investing[12:33] War, Oil & Macro Uncertainty[15:00] Energy Outlook & Implications[18:52] Hedging & Risk Management📩 Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimerThis episode originally appeared on The Investment Memo and is redistributed with permission.

Ep. 29: War & Markets | How a Former Sr. Millennium PM Invests in Equities

In this episode, Doug joins Hyun Hong of The Investment Memo to break down how a buy-side investor is navigating today’s market backdrop.

Doug shares how he thinks about building a variant view, managing risk in uncertain macro environments, and what’s actually driving the current conversation around oil, war, and recession risk.

The conversation also dives into the evolving hedge fund landscape — from pod shop fatigue and talent migration to how analysts and PMs are adapting their process in a world increasingly dominated by macro volatility.

Chapters:

[00:00] Intro

[01:05] Career Path to a Hedge Fund PM

[04:39] What is your Variant View

[06:05] Pod shop Exhaustion? Talent retention & exodus

[07:01] Hedge Fund SMAs

[07:15] Fundamental Equities L/S Analyst

[12:33] War & Oil & Recession

[15:00] oil here for higher & longer? what then?

[18:52] So how do you hedge?

To be continued in Part 2…

📩 Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.

https://pitchthepm.substack.com/

💡 Presented by AlphaSense

Free trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

This episode originally appeared on The Investment Memo and is redistributed with permission.

Teamshares: The Next Programmatic Acquirer. Coming Soon: $LOKV → $TMS

Doug Garber chats with Michael Brown (Teamshares, TMS) and Rick Hendrix (Live Oak, LOKV) about taking a programmatic acquirer of small businesses public via a DSPAC — the sourcing tech, capital plan, and why this opens a new asset class for investors. 🚀

In this episode:

• How Teamshares buys retirement-sale SMEs, systemizes sourcing (70k leads → <1% close) and runs them as audited subsidiaries. 🧩

• The advantages of being public include a lower cost of capital and the ability to leverage the infrastructure the team has built to acquire and run SME’s efficiently. 

• The large runway to continue to acquire companies at around 15-20% ROE’s.

• The company could be FCF positive in the near future and be self-funding. 

• T. Rowe Price has already anchored the PIPE.

Subscribe to the Pitch The PM newsletter for weekly market insights, episode follow-ups, and our job board!https://pitchthepm.substack.com/

🎧 Listen on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

💡 Presented by AlphaSense: Free trial access💡Model tools by InSyncAnalytics: The complete buy-side model productivity suit

This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://PitchThePM.com

Listen on Spotify • Subscribe for new episodes 🎧

Disclaimer: Educational only — not investment advice.

In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber sits down with Sean Emory, founder of Avory & Co., an investment firm focused on high-conviction, fundamentals-driven investing. Sean recently launched the Avory ETF ($AVRY), bringing his firm’s research-driven stock-picking approach to public investors.Sean outlines his “6 M” investment process that has allowed him to compound at nearly 20% for the last decade with low turnover for FO’s, UHNW, and RIA’s.Doug and Sean discuss why XYZ is one his largest weightings. • Cash App growth and monetization trends• Square’s re-acceleration in merchant volumes• The reality behind the software job cuts, the impact of AI vs over hiring• The role of credit products like Cash App Borrow• Competitive dynamics in fintech and digital payments• Risks, including macro conditions and credit cycles📩 Want to know if Doug bought the pitch?Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/A special thank you to our sponsors Carbon Arc (carbonarc.co) and InSync Analytics Corp. (istari.insyncanalytics.com)🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5Y?si=cb521c1e758246a1Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

$HSY: Historic Price/Cost Tailwinds as Historic Cocoa Price Spike Reverses 🍫📈Pitch The PM sat down with Mark Rogers (SIGMIT Advisors / Heddy Creek Research) to break down what may be one of the cleanest price-cost setups in consumer staples right now: Hershey ($HSY).After a brutal cocoa inflation cycle crushed margins, cocoa prices are now reversing sharply. The Street has started revising numbers higher — and Mark believes the magnitude of the earnings reset is still under appreciated.📊 The Variant View

• Cocoa deflation is flowing into gross margins over time.
• Pricing increases are sticky giving favorable price/cost.
• EPS revisions are the key, we think the trend is your friend as cocoa deflation rolls through the PnL.
• Mark believes $9–$9.50 next year is achievable — and may not be peak.

• If $HSY earns ~$9–$9.50 and staples trade high-20s multiples, fair value could approach $270–$285 per Rogers.

💰 Valuation MathVariant View:Margins could overshoot historical averages as they recover leading to positive revisions. A special thank you to our sponsors Carbon Arc (carbonarc.co) and InSync Analytics Corp. (istari.insyncanalytics.com)Disclosure: Doug still owns $RMCF. Mark sold $HSY after the strong quarter.*Not investment advice. 🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE...Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

Opening the Strait of Hormuz with Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners | Pitch The PMThe Strait of Hormuz is closed. Twenty million barrels of oil per day flow through that narrow channel. When it shuts down, the world feels it. The duration of the closure is the key to accessing the global ripple effects. Doug Garber sits down with Kevin Book, one of Washington's most respected energy policy analysts, for a real-time breakdown of the crisis. Kevin leads Clearview Energy Partners, an independent research firm that has spent decades writing economic and policy research on energy for institutional investors and corporate leaders. He has seen a lot. He says this is different.They cover what it actually takes to reopen the strait, what Iran is doing to keep it closed, and what the US military can and cannot do. They get into the nuclear question, the LNG shock, China's deep energy vulnerability, and what happens to sanctioned barrel flows from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. They talk about strategic reserves, risk premiums, production responses, and what history tells us about how these crises end.This is not a surface level take. Kevin brings the data, the geopolitical context, and tDoug brings the hard questions the market is asking right now.Guest: Kevin Book, Managing Partner, Clearview Energy Partners Host: Doug Garber, Pitch The PM, former Millennium Senior PM and top Citadel AnalystChapters: [00:00] Intro [01:18] Reopening the Strait of Hormuz [03:09] Naval escort precedent [04:11] Shipping risk and insurance [06:34] Iran’s remaining threat capacity [08:15] Iran nuclear facilities and uncertainty [12:06] Why oil spiked [17:20] Oil and LNG supply at risk [21:56] SPRs and alternate routes [22:26] Can higher prices restart US production? [24:15] China’s energy vulnerability [34:02] What this means for Taiwan [36:49] The endgame in Iran [45:38] What investors are asking nowSubscribe to the Pitch The PM newsletter for Buy-Side insights from an ex Sr. PM Millennium/Citadel Analyst, investment process frameworks, job openings, and if Doug did bought or sold the episodes pitch: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/🎧 Listen on SpotifyListen on Apple Podcasts💡 Presented by AlphaSense. Get a free trial!This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures.

Doug Garber sits down with Paul Sankey (Sankey Research) and Xavier Smith (AlphaSense) to break down what it would actually take to “unlock Venezuela” — and why the biggest oil-market impact may be second-order (US capex behavior), not an overnight flood of barrels.

Despite the headline excitement around a post-Maduro reset and a new hydrocarbons law, Sankey argues Venezuela remains a long-road “investability” story: rule of law, arbitration, security, and legacy claims (Exxon/Conoco) still dominate the timeline. Near-term gains are most credible through Chevron’s existing footprint, with heavier barrels reshaping Gulf Coast refining dynamics and Canadian heavy differentials at the margin.

📉 Bias / Framework: Sankey views the near-term upside as incremental barrels + changing incentives, not a rush of IOC capital. Public E&Ps remain anchored to capex discipline and uncertainty around future supply.

💥 Catalysts / Watch Items:Chevron execution + export/logistics normalizationEvidence of real rule-of-law improvements (arbitration credibility, contract sanctity)Resolution (or escalation) of legacy claims and payment/legal structuresNew entrants into the Venezuelan oil business are now allowed.Heavier-barrel flows shifting refinery economics and heavy differentials

💰 Setup / Market Mechanics:Near-term: modest Venezuela adds can still matter at the margin particularly for refiners who consume this feedstock.Medium-term: Field level security and certainty of payment will dictate the ultimate upside

🎯 Bottom LineThis is about controlling the oil in the Western Hemisphere over the long-term. Don't expect a material production ramp so quickly other than what Chevron can ramp on with their in country resources. ⏱️ Chapters:[00:00] Welcome + format[01:32] 2026/2027 Venezuela production outlook + Chevron’s role[05:13] The “US reinvestment” externality[14:40] Who invests (majors vs privates) + getting paid[20:06] Why $70 Brent isn’t a simple green light[24:30] European “green shoots,” diluent constraints, and heavy oil realities[26:30] Iraq lessons and a Venezuela “playbook”[31:16] Big picture geopolitics: US/China/Russia/Iran[36:30] Guyana vs Venezuela: geology vs governance[41:40] Economics of the “prize” (heavy barrels, decline, emissions)[47:30] Nat gas + Trinidad LNG + infrastructure constraints[51:40] Q&A: Canada oil sands + Iran blockade risk[56:10] Wrap + AlphaSense CTA📲 Subscribe to the newsletter: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5Y💡 Webinar by AlphaSense — the AI intelligence platform for finding and synthesizing signal across equity research, filings, transcripts, and expert calls. Sign up for a free trial: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at PitchThePM.com.

Doug Garber sits down with Sean Kumar (Humbucker Capital) to break down why Disney may be a value trap in disguise.

Despite Disney’s evergreen IP and brand cachet, Kumar believes the street is mispricing the economics of DTC, overestimating ARPU growth, and underestimating park fatigue. He walks through his short framework grounded in bottoms-up segment analysis and consensus vs. internal modeling. 

📉 Bearish Bias: Kumar has followed $DIS on the sell side and the buy side. While he respects the brand, he sees it as a value trap with street expectations too high for 2026.

📊 Variant View:

• Street is overly bullish on DTC margin ramp

• Parks traffic has peaked, and affordability is challenged. 

• Sell-side still 80% Buy despite 5 years of underperformance

💥 Catalysts:

• Miss on streaming margins

• Weak park comps

• Analyst downgrades

• 2026 CEO transition risk

💰 Valuation Setup:Downside to $90 (10–15x $7 EPS) vs. $130 bull case. Risk/reward skewed negatively.

🎯 Street Is Missing: What’s priced in vs. what’s achievable in a post-linear media world.

⏱️ Chapters:[00:00] Humbucker Origin[06:00] Bias on $DIS[14:00] Iger’s Leadership[20:00] Streaming Unit Economics[27:00] Parks Plateau[34:00] Street Models vs. Reality[46:00] Catalysts & Counterpoints

📲 Subscribe to the newsletter: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/

🎧 Listen on Spotify

📺Watch on YouTube

💡 Powered by AlphaSense: Free access

This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at PitchThePM.com.

🎧 The better oil equity bet is in Colombia not Venezuela | with Venezuelan-American, Danny Pidert Hernández | Pitch The PMAfter the U.S. extracted Maduro, investors scrambled to re-underwrite the LatAm energy map.Doug Garber sits down with Danny Pidert Hernández — hedge fund manager, Venezuelan-American, and boots-on-the-ground LatAm research pro — to break down the real variant play emerging post-Maduro: Colombian energy equities.Danny has spent years mapping the politics, channel checking with petroleum engineers, and tracking who actually controls oil, roadways, and dollars in the region. The result? A high-signal discussion on regime change, risk-reward math, and why names like $GPRK, $PXT, and $EC may be on the verge of a growth re-rate if Colombia flips right in May.

🔍 Checklist Angles:Mispricing: Names like $GPRK & $PXT trade like melting ice cubes — priced for no permits, no growth, and political paralysis.

Catalyst: Colombia’s May election could end Petro’s anti-fossil policies and reignite fracking + exploration.

Variant View: Regime risk is priced in, but upside from production normalization is not. Names could re-rate under a Colombian regime change.

On the Ground Evidence: Danny met directly with field ops + engineers during a recent month long field research trip.💡 Presented by AlphaSense: Free trial access🧭

CHAPTERS

[00:00] – Intro & Danny’s Background Dual citizen, former PM, born in Caracas, trained on GS trading desk. Why he fled Venezuela under Chavez and what he sees now on the ground.

[06:55] – Venezuela Today: A Collapsed State GDP -80%, oil down 90%, 8M+ people fled. Why Maduro’s fall is symbolic — and why Diosdado Cabello & Padrino López still hold the real power.

[08:39] – What the U.S. Must Do Next Venezuela remains uninvestable. Chevron is the only major still there. Exxon & Total want no part until full government reset and seized asset compensation.

[14:49] – Chevron’s Underappreciated Edge Operating at low utilization — could boost production 2x without new capex. What’s holding it back? Sanctions, diluent imports, and deal optics.

[17:00] – Who Benefits From Venezuela Reopening? Chevron, Valero, Schlumberger? Yes — but moves may be priced in. Danny walks through which tickers are most levered to LatAm oil upside.

[21:44] – Colombia Is the Lateral Trade Petro’s anti-oil regime is ending. May election likely flips government to pro-business. Colombia could be the real winner from Venezuela chaos.

[24:21] – Field Research: Colombian Oil Stocks Why $GPRK, $PXT, and $EC are the better growth bet. Danny met directly with engineers and ops teams to verify asset quality and roadmap.

[27:27] – Catalysts + Tickers to Watch Election in May is the main clock. Right-wing win unlocks fracking and permits. Stocks still price in regime risk, not recovery.

[44:15] – Hair on the Story: What Could Go Wrong? Asset decline curves, protest blockades, political manipulation. What investors need to underwrite before sizing up the trade.

📲 Subscribe to the newsletter to see if Doug acted on this episodes pitch: pitchthepm.beehiiv.com

This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at PitchThePM.com.

Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 is going to change how the obesity market can scale.

In this episode of Pitch the PM, Doug Garber speaks with Sriker Nadipuram, a founding member of Critical Value Asset Management, a long/short equity fund focused on biotechnology and pharmaceuticals. Doug and Sriker unpack why oral delivery matters for access, and long-term earnings power. The discussion focuses on how behavioral friction, PBMs, pricing mechanics, and policy all shape adoption, often more than clinical data alone.

Topics include:

• Why obesity drugs are a penetration story, not just an efficacy story

• How PBMs influence which drugs patients actually receive

• Why list prices are misleading, and how direct pricing changes access

• What’s priced into LLY today, and what may not be

👉 Doug shares his full Variant View exclusively in Buy-side Insights, the official PTPM newsletter. Subscribe to get the complete framework.

👉 This episode is supported by Carbon Arc, an alternative data platform that gives investors access to real-world transaction and behavioral data to better understand adoption, pricing, and demand. Learn more at https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome

🛑 Disclaimer

This conversation is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The participants may have positions in securities mentioned and are under no obligation to update their views. Please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

In this episode, Doug sits down with Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, for a wide-ranging and candid discussion on the current state of the AI arms race.Key Takeways:OpenAI has over-promised on the $1.4T of commitments to ORCL, CRWV, etc… and likely has to renegotiate and reduce the scope of its ambitions across the AI value chain to focus on their core like ChatGPT. There are big competitors in the LLM race, such as GOOG and META, so OpenAI will need deep pockets that are willing to bet on Altman to keep the story rolling. Raising capital in the private markets is the near-term solution to solve the funding gap…and all is ok at OpenAI as long as the funding keeps coming and the growth keeps beating expectations….not a lot of margin of error here. If it’s a game of who can lose money the longest, I would not want to bet against GOOG or META’’s cash flow machines. META could find discipline and reduce capex, don;t hold your breath as Zuck has a big ego and a big balance sheet. He’s sending a signal to the market that he is going after AGI and has the balance sheet to do it. Stock would be better off if META split into an infrastructure company and an asset light social media company. The stock price driver in the near-term is based on capex and Zuck’s desire to win the LLM race and AGI. Ugh.GOOG is now the consensus winner, low-cost AI provider and now with a SOTP story. Regulatory breakup behind them and now commercializing TPU’s and marginally ahead in the LLM race. If OpenAI starts to monetize its traffic or new position in the TOF, then it could pose a risk to the consensus long GOOG…No signs of that yet. Will check CarbonArc for the latest digital advertising alternative data. The OpenAI contracts with ORCL and CRWV are “known” to be be unattainable and if they are renegotiated, it could potentially be a positive catalyst for those related stocks that have already discounted a negative outcome depending on the new terms as the negative catalyst is past (potential short covering) or the overhang is removed. Disclosure: Not Investment advice. Host andor affiliates are long GOOG and META and short NVDA.📩 Subscribe for more deep-dive conversations and variant views: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeDoug Garber on LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508Episode partner:💡 Powered by AlphaSense. For complimentary access to their GenAI and expert call library, visit: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

In this Alpha Sense sponsored webinar, we discuss how AI’s power demand is rewriting the energy equation.What started as a “data problem” has become an energy story — and few people have thought more deeply about that intersection than Arjun Murti, former Goldman Partner and author of Super-Spiked.Together, we unpacked:- How data centers consistent energy requirements are changing natural gas markets and the energy transition- Whether oil’s “durable demand” is misunderstood and where we are in the oil cycle- How the energy transition is creating both constraints and investment opportunitiesThis isn’t a conversation you want to miss. Watch on-demand now.*Not investment advice*Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeThis is an Alpha Sense webinar. For a complimentary trial click the link below: https://www.alpha-sense.com/pitch/

Doug Garber, former Citadel analyst and Millennium Senior PM, joins the Odds On Open podcast to unpack his experience  inside two of the top multi-manager platforms. Up and comer, Ethan Kho, explores the culture inside these two leading alternative asset management firms. We explore what defines success at each firm and what really separates the PMs and analysts who thrive from those who don’t.

Doug explains the real contrast between the two giants.

Citadel runs like a tightly coordinated multi-strategy machine — centralized, structured, feedback-rich, and built around process.

Millennium is a different animal — a decentralized ecosystem of entrepreneurial pods, each built to generate uncorrelated alpha with real autonomy and accountability.

We walk through how those environments shape talent: the transparency, the competition, the coaching, and the pressure…all the things that forge (or break) careers.

We also break down the fundamentals of long/short equity the way practitioners actually use them:

• building variant views through deep equity research

• mastering the stock-picking process

• balancing market-neutral discipline with conviction-driven ideas

• using risk models and factor overlays the right way

• and how the best PMs train, challenge, and develop analysts through tight feedback loops

We dig into:

• Citadel vs Millennium: structured discipline vs entrepreneurial autonomy

• How sell-side training builds real domain expertise for buy-side analysts

• Why deep research and sector mastery are the foundation of durable alpha

• Understanding alpha and how top PMs manage idiosyncratic risk inside portfolios

• How risk, exposure, and factor awareness drive performance at multi-strats

• Culture, competition, and why the environment shapes outcomes more than people think

• The analyst–PM relationship and what “credibility” really means

• Lessons from blow-ups, post-mortems, and how great teams institutionalize learning

• What it actually takes to move from analyst to PM — curiosity, resilience, and ownership

• How Citadel teaches risk awareness vs how Millennium develops independent thinkers

• Building portfolios that hedge factor noise and isolate true alpha

• Why grit and curiosity matter more than pedigree in breaking into top hedge fund seats

• Doug’s own journey: ambition, burnout, family, and life after the multi-manager grind

• And why he launched Pitch The PM — real industry insight and markets education for the next generation coming up the ladder

00:00 Intro

00:54 What makes a great fundamental investment process

01:43 Why domain knowledge and equity research matter

02:42 How sell-side experience transfers to the buy-side

04:39 How deep research drives alpha in long/short equity

05:43 Grit and curiosity in hedge fund careers

07:24 Inside multi-manager hedge fund structures and competition

08:22 Citadel vs Millennium — efficiency vs independence

11:28 How hedge fund culture shapes collaboration

13:55 Working at Citadel vs working at Millennium

18:22 Risk management inside top multi-strategy funds

19:10 Understanding IDEO and quantitative overlays

21:54 Managing factor exposure and market neutral strategies

25:18 Risk models across multi-manager hedge funds

27:03 Training long-only PMs for market neutral thinking

28:03 Teaching IDEO concepts to new PMs

31:25 Hiring: domain knowledge vs athlete mindset

34:44 Building hedge fund analyst teams and trust

36:57 PM–analyst communication and evidence-based decisions

42:10 Managing pressure inside hedge fund culture

44:53 Lessons from top performers on leadership

45:33 Life after multi-manager hedge funds

46:02 Founding Westport Alpha and work-life balance

49:28 Turning down Citadel and redefining success

51:00 Raising kind, grounded kids and values

53:08 Closing thoughts and Doug’s Pitch the PM

Note: produced by Odds On Open and re-distributed. All publishing rights belong to Odds On Open and may not be redistributed without the consent of them.

In this conversation, Doug sits down with Sinan Xin, managing partner at Amber Road, to discuss the “lost art” of international investing and dive deep on Nebius ($NBIS) — a misunderstood name in the global AI infrastructure ecosystem. Sinan has followed the company since its spinout from Yandex and built a position around $25 post-relisting earlier this year. Here he explains why Nebius now represents 10% of his fund.

They unpack Nebius’ origins inside “Russia’s Google,” its transformation into a neutral global AI compute provider, and the overlooked value of its 28% stake in ClickHouse. The discussion covers how Nebius differs from peers like CoreWeave, what investors miss about its payback economics, and why Sinan believes the market is overlooking a potential $200 stock hiding in plain sight.

1. Action:Maintain a core long in Nebius (NBIS). Keep it as a top-three holding given its asymmetric setup, global customers, and accelerating AI infrastructure growth.

2. Understanding:Nebius operates an AI infrastructure-as-a-service platform spun out from Yandex. It builds and rents compute, storage, and networking capacity (like AWS or CoreWeave) and owns 28% of ClickHouse — a fast-growing open-source database. Customers include Tesla, Anthropic, ByteDance, MercadoLibre, and Microsoft.

3. Valuation:At ~$125–130, the stock trades near 15x implied earnings power, discounting a 10% ROIC versus management’s 25–40% long-term goal. A four-year payback supports a ~$200/share valuation with ~30% downside to $85. No premium is priced for platform optionality.

4. Mispricing:Investors overreact to “Russian risk,” missing that the firm is now based in Western Europe and Israel. Skepticism around GPU depreciation also clouds sentiment. The market overlooks:

• Global neutrality (can serve U.S., EU, and EM customers)

• ClickHouse stake worth near the entire EV

• Software-driven margin expansion

  
  

5. Variant View:The Street views Nebius as a capital-heavy GPU host. Sinan views it as a technology company, not a leasing business. With software heritage and higher-margin products (ClickHouse, ML ops, AI APIs), Nebius should earn AWS-like ROIC, not colocation-style returns.

6. Evidence:

• Global contracts with Microsoft, Anthropic, and Tesla

• ClickHouse stake last valued near $6B; next raise likely $20B+

• Added U.S.-based execs to scale go-to-market

• 40%+ utilization growth; payback trending to 3 years

• 1,300 engineers from Yandex — proven technical base

  
  

7. Catalysts:

• Next ClickHouse funding round and potential monetization

• New hyperscaler or enterprise partnerships

• Index inclusion and rising institutional ownership

• Disclosure of improving ROIC and payback metrics

• Recognition that Nebius is an AI software platform

  
  

8. Upside:Base case $200/share (~60% upside); bull case $220–250 if ClickHouse valuation rises and incremental capacity earns 25%+ ROIC — assuming no multiple expansion.

9. Risks:GPU cost compression, political or regulatory backlash, deployment delays, or overestimation of ClickHouse profitability.

10. Alignment:Founders and early engineers hold significant equity. Management is equity-compensated and performance-driven, with a culture of technologists, not financiers.

Subscribe for more research updates and high-conviction episodes from top PMs & analysts:
https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe

In this episode of Pitch the PM, Doug Garber sits down with Jeff Geygan, CEO of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF), and Carrie Cass, the company’s CFO, to discuss how they’re rebuilding one of America’s most recognizable confectionery brands.The conversation goes far beyond chocolate — it’s a candid look at what real operational transformation looks like inside a small-cap public company.They cover:The steps taken to stabilize operations and rebuild cultureWhy data, ERP, and POS systems were the foundation for changePlans to expand east of the Mississippi and revitalize store growthManaging costs, margins, and franchisee relationships in a higher-rate environmentLessons from taking a “Wall Street to Main Street” approach to leadershipDoug also explores the investment lens — from the company’s long history and competitive set (including Kilwins) to the balancing act between leverage, growth, and execution risk.“This has been more than a turnaround. It’s a transformation. We’re big enough to execute — small enough to move fast.” — Jeff, CEO, RMCF🎧 Listen if you’re interested in:Turnarounds and small-cap operating playbooksHow management teams rebuild trust and cultureFranchise economics and capital disciplineThe realities of running a consumer business through a transformationChapters:(0:00) — Intro: Betting on chocolate(2:35) — RMCF’s footprint and business model(7:01) — Operational reset: from ERP to culture(10:35) — Rebuilding the franchise network(15:47) — Store economics and ROI targets(16:49) — Comparing RMCF and Kilwins valuations(21:41) — Product mix, margins, and brand positioning(29:50) — Managing cocoa price volatility(38:02) — Balance sheet and deleveraging priorities(42:57) — Leadership lessons: culture, curiosity, and execution(48:26) — Closing thoughts: “10x or zero”🔗 LinksThis episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeDoug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 🛑 DisclaimerThis conversation is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The participants may have positions in securities mentioned and are under no obligation to update their views. Please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Jonathan Kasen spent over a decade as a portfolio manager at Fidelity, analyzing industrial and energy companies through the lens of four key elements: organic growth, operating leverage, free cash flow conversion, and reinvestment opportunities. Today, he’s applying those same principles to his latest venture: chocolate.

In this episode of Pitch The PM, Jonathan joins Doug Garber to talk about his journey from Wall Street to small business ownership. They dive deep into what makes a great compounder—public or private—and how Buffett’s See’s Candies investment and a shaky car ride with the Oracle himself helped shape Kasen’s thinking.

Choosing a great industry like chocolate is a good start and then management execution is the key to compounding. Kasen’s blueprint at Hillard’s is similar to See’s Candies regional strategy decades ago.

💡 A big thank you to StreetAccount by FactSet for sponsoring this episode. Stay plugged in to key news from your entire watch list all in one place with StreetAccount.

📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe

Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508

Not Investment Advice.

The AI Capex Super-Cycle is well underway. We dive deep with Doug O'Laughlin, the President of SemiAnalysis - the leading field level industry experts and Michelle Brophy, the TMT DoR at AlphaSense. Watch the webinar now: https://lnkd.in/eUat9NyuIn this AlphaSense sponsored webinar we dive into all the key debates and which companies and products are winning across the entire AI Capex ecosystem. The SemiAnalysis team goes to 85 industry level conferences a year to get the inside scoop. From Hypersaclers, Neoclouds, Semi's, to E&C's and Industrial Manufacturers anything downstream of AI capex is what is working. And the capital markets are WIDE OPEN on the DCM, ECM and the largest customers, the hyperscalers, are continuing to revise capex higher each quarter to win this race.In the webinar we dive into:- What will $NVDA's market share be in a few years? - What is the real differentiator of the CUDA system?- Why $CRWV is winning? - Is $GOOG the next IBM?- What is the opportunity for the TPU and other chips?- We build on our Hydra Host episode with Aaron Ginn to discuss how the U.S. wins vs China in the AI race.- What is the rate (and thus economic life) of a GPU after a few years?- How the shift to inference from training is impacting companies?- And even dig into the benefits of using copper in the chips. Disclosures:*Not Investment Advice. **I have evened out my AI exposure to META vs NVDA. (Thesis is not a call on timing the AI cycle, but a relative value way to play the company that is able to improve their ecosystem returns and customer experience vs a company that is currently generating most of the industry rent that has a history of being cyclical)

Welcome to Pitch The PM, where host Doug Garber is joined by Aaron Ginn, CEO and Co-founder at Hydra Host.

— — — —

In this episode, Doug Garber and Aaron Ginn to unpack the forces reshaping the global AI infrastructure stack. They dive deep into Nvidia’s growing dominance and explore how CEO Jensen Huang is building an ecosystem designed to sideline the hyperscalers, financing their destruction while capturing more of the value chain.

Aaron breaks down the shift from public cloud to bare metal, the margin squeeze facing Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, and why GPU infrastructure, not models or software, is now the real bottleneck. The episode also explores the emerging spot market for compute, the evolving ROI math for data centers, and why neoclouds are gaining ground as hyperscaler credibility erodes.

From regionalization and reshoring to export controls and geopolitical leverage, this conversation goes beyond semis and into the future of economic power in the AI era.

See below for episode disclosures.

— — — —

Aaron Ginn is the Co-Founder and CEO of Hydra Host, a fast-growing infrastructure company building the largest GPU management platform in the world. Hydra provides a fully automated, API-driven system for monetizing GPU and CPU infrastructure, streamlining bare metal deployment at scale. Before founding Hydra, Aaron co-founded the Lincoln Network (now Foundation for American Innovation) and Fabius Labs, with a focus on bridging technology, policy, and product design. He has over a decade of experience in tech, spanning product, engineering, and digital growth. His work has been featured in outlets including The Wall Street Journal, TechCrunch, and Wired.

— — — —

📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts. ⁠https://lnkd.in/ekkxjp6z⁠

Episode partner: AlphaSense

Keep our content free, and please consider supporting our sponsors. They are essential in helping us do our deep-dive research.

💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use our link here for Complimentary access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

— — — —

Chapters:

[00:00] – Intro & Hydrahost’s Origin Story

[03:07] – The Evolution of Data Centers & AI Infrastructure.

[08:49] – Nvidia's Role & Shifting Market Power

[14:47] – The Decline of Traditional Cloud

[20:54] – The Competitive Landscape. Google, Amazon, and the bundling tactics shaping GPU access. 

[24:01] – Geopolitics & Digital Infrastructure

[37:34] – ROI & GPU Utilization Strategies

[43:36] – Market Liquidity & Pricing Dynamics

[53:23] – Capital Models & Financial Engineering GPU resale, and payback strategies.

[58:01]- China’s Huawei push, Nvidia’s ecosystem defense, and infrastructure land grabs.

▶️ MORE VARIANT VIEW EPISODES:

• NVDA: As Good As It Gets: https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlM?si=pRlRnhrH6Hknp9zU

• TUSK: Cigar Butt Morphing into a Compounder: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0mF5WK91oc&t=396s

Follow Pitch The PM:

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508

X: https://x.com/PitchThePM

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5

— — — —

⚠️ Not Investment Advice. For Educational Purposes. See disclaimers at PitchThePM.com

Welcome back to another episode of Pitch The PM. In this episode, Doug Garber flips roles and steps in as the analyst pitching Vestis Corporation (VSTS)—a recent spin-out, route-based industrial with a new CEO taking the helm after missteps from the initial CEO. Former SAC PM Hugh Anderson plays the part of portfolio manager, dissecting the thesis and poking holes in the evidence. Together they examine whether the business is broken or simply sandbagged, if re-aligning the sales force incentives by limiting credits can drive margin recovery, and whether new CEO Jim Barber (former UPS COO) can execute a Cintas-style transformation. With short interest high and expectations low, is this a compelling special situation or a value trap?

— — — —

Get Doug’s version of the Earnings Preview Checklist: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/p/vsts-sanbagged-guide-new-ceo-s-turnaround-plan-could-be-a-catalyst-high-short-interest

Chapters:

[00:00:00] What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take?

Doug owns VSTS ahead of what he believes is an underappreciated Q3 setup, driven by sandbagged guidance, a new CEO presenting a turnaround plan. He is bias, so do your own research.

[00:03:40] Do I UNDERSTAND this business?

Doug draws on his industrial’s experience from Citadel and Millennium, and lays out VSTS’s core model—route-based delivery of uniforms and business supplies—and how its execution compares to peers like Cintas and UniFirst.

[00:10:50] Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?

VSTS trades at ~8x EV/EBITDA vs. Cintas at 29x. Doug argues valuation is fair for a fixer-upper and notes that upside lies in earnings revisions, not rerating.

[00:12:55] Why is this stock MIS-PRICED?

Street views VSTS as broken due to management stumbles, two major guidance cuts, and high leverage. Doug sees it as a speed bump, not a structural issue.

[00:14:50] What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street?

Doug believes recent underperformance and sandbagging have lowered the bar, setting up a potential beat. The April run-rate already matched December’s, suggesting Q3 upside.

[00:18:00] What is the EVIDENCE?

The last conference call lays out the rebound in sales back to December levels in April. Plus, the excessive narrative on credits helps explain the high decremental margins during the recent shortfall.

[00:25:00] What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize my view?

A Q3 beat followed by a Q4 guide above consensus could lead to higher earnings revisions and thus a higher stock price. Plus, the CEO’s turnaround plan could be positive. And there is high-short interest.

[00:34:00] What is it WORTH if the bet is right?

With steady growth, the multiple discount vs peers could narrow too. Re-rating to peer levels (0.8x–1.3x EV/revenue) from 0.3x could also happen as profitability improves.

[00:40:00] What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet?

Management may invest heavily, hurting near-term FCF. Credit covenants may linger. CEO could have a conservative stance out of the gate on the 4Q guide.

[00:45:00] Is management ALIGNED with ownership?

Jim Barber’s equity was granted post last quarter’s miss, guide pull, and dividend cut. He has a good starting point.

— — — —

Episode partner:💡

Powered by AlphaSense.

For complimentary access to their earnings tools and expert call library, visit: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

— — — —

Follow Pitch The PM:🔗 LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 🐦

X: x.com/PitchThePM 📸

Linktree: Linktree 📩

Subscribe: pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe

Not Investment Advice. Doug owns VSTS and is biased.

This episode is a replay of a webinar recorded on May 15th, where Ed Moya interviews Doug Garber, founder of Pitch the PM and Westport Alpha. Doug walks through his 10-step Variant View Checklist to make the case for Zoom ($ZM). Once seen as a COVID-era relic, Zoom is now a misunderstood, cash-rich business with sticky enterprise traction, product expansion into UCaaS, and a setup that offers asymmetric upside if growth reaccelerates.

1. What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take?
Doug owns $ZM after hearing Sean Emory pitch it in Episode 2. He sees it as a high-conviction long with multiple ways to win. The company trades at a depressed multiple despite $7B in cash, strong real FCF, and signs of growth reaccelerating through enterprise attach rates and product expansion beyond core video.

2. Do I UNDERSTAND this business?
Yes. Doug is a longtime user of Zoom and its competitors. He's reviewed expert calls via AlphaSense, spoken to the company, and built conviction through firsthand usage and external diligence.

3. Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?
Yes. Zoom trades at an 8–10% unlevered FCF yield, and Doug adjusts for dilution of ~2–3% annually. The company remains profitable, debt-free, and is actively buying back shares.

4. Why is this stock MIS-PRICED?
The decline in Zoom’s online SMB segment has masked steady enterprise growth. The market sees stagnation. Doug sees a business quietly transitioning into a sticky UCaaS platform with pricing power, expanding attach rates, and increasing value per seat.

5. What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street?
Doug believes the street underestimates Zoom’s ability to reignite growth. While consensus focuses on competition from Microsoft and Google, Doug sees Zoom executing faster, particularly with Zoom Phone, Contact Center, and AI integrations.

6. What is the EVIDENCE?
He cites AlphaSense expert calls and customer examples—one enterprise boosted spend from $150K to $500K after adopting Zoom Phone. Product feedback is strong, engineering hires from Microsoft signal talent migration, and real-time data from web traffic, app downloads, and channel checks support traction.

7. What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize the view?
Improved enterprise attach, stabilization in online, AI companion usage, strategic M&A or capital deployment, and beat-and-raise quarters are potential catalysts. Investor perception could shift as Zoom repositions as a broader platform with pricing leverage.

8. What is it WORTH if the bet is right?
Doug sees upside to $150/share. If growth improves to mid-single digits and the FCF yield compresses to 4–5%, the stock could deliver 70–90% total upside over time. Optionality from the $7B balance sheet could accelerate that outcome through smart M&A.

9. What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet?
Downside risk exists if growth flattens or declines further. Doug estimates 20–30% downside in that case, but the $7B in cash and stable FCF provide a strong margin of safety. Even in a bear case, the asset could be attractive to a strategic acquirer.

10. Is MANAGEMENT ALIGNED with ownership?
Mixed. Founder Eric Yuan still owns ~8% and recently returned to a product-focused role. However, stock-based comp has been elevated, though the company is now shifting toward cash comp. Culture and product velocity remain strengths.

📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for more episodes and updates from top PMs and Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe
💡 Sponsored by AlphaSense. Complimentary access for listeners: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

Disclaimer: Not investment advice. Guests may hold positions and are under no obligation to update. Do your own research and consult with a financial advisor. Shorting is risky and should be discussed with a professional.

In this episode of Pitch the PM, Doug welcomes Mark Layton, CFO of Mammoth Energy Services (NASDAQ: TUSK), to explore one of his highest conviction investment ideas and his first of twenty lifetime “Buffett punchcard” investments. This small cap company ($132 MM market cap) is valued below cash levels ($150 MM) with the market giving the company no credit for its existing businesses or underutilized equipment that was recently valued at $145 MM by an independent appraiser. The company recently exited its largest industrial business for $110 MM (more than 3x MOIC), has its land drilling rigs held for sale and subsequent to the recording of this episode sold its frac assets for $15 MM. Mammoth, with the help of its largest shareholder - Wexford, is targeting 25-35% unlevered IRR’s in the aviation rental space where it has a robust pipeline. The company is also incubating its engineering, fiber, and rental equipment businesses. Doug views this as a private equity investment in a public shell without the fees. - Growing the rental business. Mammoth has oilfield rental equipment and helicopters in the portfolio and in April 2025 they purchased 8 airplane. Seeing deal flow through Wexford with unlevered IRR’s at 25-35%.- TUSK is in a void in the capital markets and it resembles a private equity company in a public shell. - 2024 was the worst year for natural gas. Historical presence in the Marcellus and Utica from the co-investment of Gulfport and Wexford to form the initial frac company. 6 frac spreads in total, but lack sufficient scale [Note: Mammoth sold their frac equipment on June 16, 2025]. - View capital allocation like a private equity shop.- Accommodations was its own segment after the IPO, it has done well. Formed by Wexford in 2006/07. Renewed interest in the oil sands. Looking at investments there that can increase the room rates. Have a good leader there and has generated steady FCF. Used this unit for Puerto Rico housing.- Opportunity for expansion into construction. Returns are mid to high teens, unlevered.- Engineering and fiber businesses — Built the businesses around the leaders. As we look at incubating the Engineering business, it should trade for low to mid double digits EBITDA multiple. Fiber has taken a little longer to ramp up, but government funds are starting to hit the market. Can potentially do acquisitions as fiber is fragmented- Grow rental business in OFS and aircraft. Aircraft are the most attractive. Continue to evaluate the remote accommodations business. Firm up the fiber business. - Wexford’s waived consulting fee and provides access to deal flow without the $500,000 fee as they own 47%. Thoughtful patient investors.Links:📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe💡 This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 Mark Layton: https://www.linkedin.com/in/markelaytonMammoth Energy Services: https://www.mammothenergy.com/*Not Investment Advice

In this episode of Pitch The PM, host Doug Garber sits down with Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, to discuss one of the market’s most buzzed-about stocks—Palantir (PLTR). Parker brings a sobering view of why PLTR’s irrational valuation could be set to crack on a significant index rebalance.  After increasing over five fold over the last year and reaching a market cap of over $300 billion, PLTR is slated to be removed from the Russell mid-cap index where it is over an 8% weight.  The discussion spans index rebalancing mechanics, passive investing distortions, and what it means when a $300B+ company is still classified as a mid-cap. Tune in to understand how supply and demand stock mismatches—rather than company fundamentals—can potentially drive stock prices.

____________________________________________________________

[00:00:0] 1. What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take?

Sell or short PLTR.

Parker argues it's the most overvalued stock he's seen in his multi-decade career and believes the risk-reward skews heavily negative in the short term due to index rebalancing.

[00:04:34] 2. Do I UNDERSTAND this business?

Parker admits he isn’t a fundamental expert on Palantir’s operations but understands the key drivers of its valuation—mainly government contracts, AI positioning, and retail enthusiasm.

[00:05:21] 3. Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?

No. He emphasizes that PLTR  trades at an extreme multiple of future revenue, with enterprise value/sales far above any rational historical benchmark.

[00:06:39] 4. Why is this stock MIS-PRICED?

Because of index fund mechanics, “forced” buying from mid-cap PMs, strong retail momentum,  exposure to the AI theme and government contracts.  

[00:12:22] 5. What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street?

Most investors are buying due to momentum or index requirements or risk-management (to own at least part of a large index component). Parker’s view is rooted in historical data: no company of Palantir’s size has ever grown fast enough to justify such a valuation.

[00:13:05] 6. What is the EVIDENCE?

Historical analysis of EV/revenue multiples and historical growth comparisons. Palantir’s implied growth rate is historically unprecedented for a company of its size.

[00:17:05] 7. What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize the view?

The June 28 Russell rebalance, where Palantir will be removed from mid-cap indexes. This will likely trigger large-scale forced selling, especially from passive and mid-cap growth funds.

[00:25:38] 8. What is it WORTH if the bet is right?

If PLTR re-rates to the second most expensive company instead of the first, Parker estimates a 50% downside—possibly more if sentiment shifts.

[00:26:59] 9. What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet?

Continued retail inflows, AI enthusiasm, government contract momentum, or a broad market rally could keep the stock elevated or even push it higher. Parker discusses MSTR and APP as possible hedges to isolate the negative impact of the PLTR index imbalance.

[00:34:28] 10. Is management ALIGNED with ownership?

To some degree—CEO Alex Karp holds around $1 billion in stock, but the company is also heavily owned by large passive managers. Parker sees no immediate red flags but also doesn’t weigh alignment heavily in this short thesis.

Learn more about the Russell mid-cap index: HERE

💡 This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

Links:

Trivector Research: https://trivariateresearch.com/

Adam Parker: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-parker-759542179

📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe

Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

Disclosure:
This is not Investment Advice. Speakers in the episode may have positions in the securities discussed and are under no obligation to inform you of any changes.

Welcome back to another episode of Pitch the PM. In this episode, Doug speaks with biotech expert, Sriker Nadipuram from Critical Value Asset Management, about Jazz Pharmaceuticals Although outside Doug’s typical investment lane, the conversation highlights shared frameworks and rigorous research methodologies. Sriker unpacks Jazz’s business model, detailing its base business in neurology and the high-potential oncology pipeline. They examine the firm’s risk-reward setup, political uncertainty from tariffs and drug pricing, and why the market may be overlooking a potentially transformational oncology outcome in 2H’25. Tune in to learn more about JAZZ’s value proposition amid healthcare uncertainty.

*Not Investment Advice. 

 Chapters:

[00:00:00] What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take?

• Waiting on tax uncertainty for Irish-domiciled company to clear despite compelling fundamental oncology clinical catalyst opportunity

• JAZZ framed with $15 downside vs. $70–80 of upside potential with clinical success.

[00:10:38] Do I UNDERSTAND this business?

• Sriker is an expert in biotech with extensive training and experience.  

• Breakdown of Jazz’s neurology and epilepsy base, including Xyrem/Xywav and Epidiolex.

• Outside of Doug’s circle of competence. No position. Difficult to form a view on the potential impact of drug pricing, taxes and the clinical outcome. Although, Sriker does provide a rational view for the clinical outcome being partially de-risked and the potential value uplift to JAZZ.

[00:22:43] Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?

• Striker’s valuation view shows the stock is undervalued even without pipeline contributions at a 5x 2026 P/E.

• They discuss that DCF valuation is front-loaded with little terminal value due to the patent expiring eventually. 

[00:27:54] Why is this stock MIS-PRICED?

• Jazz is wrongly lumped with speculative biopharma names despite durable earnings.

• Generalists are avoiding the space due to uncertainty around drug pricing. JAZZ also has earnings uncertainty due to its Irish domicile.

[00:29:07] What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street? 

• Generalists have exited biopharma.

• Sriker sees a solid base valuation from existing portfolio and a potential clinical catalyst that is being overlooked due to the lack of interest in the biotech space. 

[00:36:40] What is the EVIDENCE?

• Sriker outlines research methods including AlphaSense transcripts and expert networks that build on top of his education in pharmaceuticals and investment experience. 

[00:39:05] What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize my view?

• A Phase 3 gastric cancer trial readout expected in H2 2025 could be positive for JAZZ. 

• Clarity on Irish domiciled tax policies and drug pricing changes.

[00:49:42] What is it WORTH if the bet is right?

• Sriker sees potential upside to ~$180+ based on projected oncology sales and expanded FCF.

[00:51:09] What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet?

• Risks include clinical trial failure, generic pressure, and political/macro headwinds.

[00:56:08] Is management ALIGNED with ownership?

• No buybacks/dividends, but capital is reinvested in pipeline with proven operational execution.

Episode partner: 

💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use our link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

▶️ More Episodes:

• BNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGx

• ZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=gKYXfFLL6nLUVnuc

• POOL: Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s POOL Investment: Buying a Great Company in a Lull https://youtu.be/190LgD6BdmQ?si=2rRej5lAdh4RLa0s

• NVDA: As Good As it Gets: https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlM?si=ETW2jhfPsWJ_wD0R

Follow Pitch The PM:

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508

X: https://x.com/PitchThePM

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com

📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe

Pitch The PM Live

Doug Garber breaks down his thesis on the future of NVIDIA using his Variant View checklist. He draws on insights from his recent episode with Gil Luria and incorporates real-time analytics from our show sponsors

5 key points discussed:

✅ Customer capex from a couple Big Tech customers is flattening out sequentially and that should make it hard for NVDA to continue to beat already high expectations for +$4B of QoQ revenue growth. The debate is how much will others absorb?

✅ The S+D for GPU's is already seeing PRICING pressure in the rent by the hour market - the canary in the coal mine?

✅ Increased competition from customer chips and Chinese chips should erode market share and margins in the medium-term

✅ The underlying GPU customer economics appear unsupported by returns and are being driven by an "Arms Race" mentality that could become fragile with declining stock prices recently

✅ The reduced NVDA valuation implies some bad news is being discounted. We use a reverse-DCF to dig-in here.

— — — —

Thanks to FinTool and InSync Analytics for sponsoring this webinar. Use this link to access a complimentary free trial: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=pitchthePM

📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts. https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe

— — — —

Chapters:

00:00 – Introduction & Webinar Overview

02:15 – Doug Garber’s Background & Investment Philosophy

05:40 – NVIDIA's Position, Management Signals, & Investment Framework

09:00 – Bull vs. Bear: Framing the Debate on NVDA

20:15 – Supply, Demand, and Competitive Landscape

31:05 – Market Expectations, Pricing Trends & Cyclical Risks

41:00 – Capital Allocation, Big Tech CapEx & Future Catalysts

57:50 – Q&A: On Shorts, CapEx, Demand Cycles & More

— — — —

▶️ MORE EPISODES:

NVDA: As Good As It Gets https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlM

POOL: Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s POOL Investment: Buying a Great Company in a Lull https://youtu.be/190LgD6BdmQ?si=2rRej5lAdh4RLa0s

ZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=gKYXfFLL6nLUVnuc

BNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGxFollow

Pitch The PM:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pitch-the-pm

X: https://x.com/PitchThePM

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PitchThePM

— — — —

Not Investment Advice. For Educational Purposes. See disclaimers at PitchThePM.com