Pitch The PM is the professional investor’s podcast where host Doug Garber dives deep into high-conviction stock ideas using his Variant View Investment Checklist.
It’s a real-time look at the research process, blending lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Lynch with modern AI tools. Join Doug, ex-Citadel top analyst and Millennium Sr PM, as he works through his Buffett-inspired 20-slot punch card. Learn, laugh, and sharpen your edge.
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Welcome to Pitch The PM where host Doug Garber is joined by Gil Luria, Head of Technology Research at D.A. Davidson for a deep-dive on NVDA.
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In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug and Gil candidly debate where Nvidia is in the GPU cycle, how Nvidia came to dominate the advanced chip market and what the road map looks like for advanced chip supply and demand. Gil outlines the current state of the industry for GPU chips that is in short supply and how the behavior of some key customers, like Microsoft, might be shifting to focus on returns over growth.
The discussion goes into depth on hyperscaler capabilities to manufacture their own chips and their plans to reduce their dependence on Nvidia. Gil believes that Nvidia’s customer capex growth has reached its peak and this could also impact NVDA if other buyers cannot fill-in to support the street’s high expected growth.
They also examine Nvidia’s valuation, competitive advantages and the shifting dynamics of AI hardware spending, breaking down how Wall Street could be overestimating future growth. Gil’s thesis centers on the idea that Nvidia’s hypergrowth is transitioning to modest growth and then forecasts a decline in 2026 CY revenue. Gil discusses how this could surprise the street and might lead to a lower valuation multiple. Please see the episode for D.A. Davidson disclosures.
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Gill Luria is the Head Technology Research for D.A Davidson, where he’s worked for the past 8 years. Previously he was the Director of Research at Wedbush. Gil worked as a consultant at Deloitte and a research associate at Sanford Bernstein. He earned a degree in economics from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and an MBA in Finance from Colombia Business School.
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Not Investment Advice. For Educational Purposes. See disclaimers at PitchThePM.com
EP.003: Pool Corp ($POOL): Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s Investment, Buying a Great Company in a Lull
Season 1 · Episode 3
Thursday, February 13, 2025 • Duration 37:18
In addition to presenting high-conviction investment ideas, we also reverse engineer great investors’ theses to improve our process.
Pool Corp. has a leading position in a good industry and has demonstrated the ability to consistently grow FCF/share in the mid-teens with a high ROIC.
The current post-COVID pool industry downturn has led to negative sentiment, and long-term investors of great companies such as Berkshire see this as an opportunity to buy a great company at a “fair” price.
We use a reverse DCF to impute that consensus expects FCF to grow in the mid-single digits, which is below historical levels.
While it is unclear if the pool industry is “out of the woods” yet based on expert network channel checks from AlphaSense, it is likely based on peer ‘25 revenue growth commentary that Pool Corp. might envision a return to low single-digit growth in 2025 as consensus expects (+3.4%).
This might cause some of the remaining 2.6 MM (7% of float) shares short (down from 4.4 MM shares in 2023) to abandon their thesis.
Earnings revisions will be the key.
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Email: learn@pitchthePM.com
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Berkshire’s Investment Checklist:
00:00 Intro
05:02 Is this business in my CIRCLE OF COMPETENCE?
EP.002: Zoom ($ZM): Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst
Episode 2
Thursday, February 6, 2025 • Duration 01:24:00
Hello and welcome back to Pitch The PM, where we debate high-conviction investment ideas with top PMs using our 10 Step Variant View Investment Checklist.
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2-2.5x Return Potential. Post the COVID stock bubble, a laser-focused management team at Zoom worked to transform from a single-product company to an Enterprise platform. Revenue growth acceleration from low single-digits to high single-digits could be the catalyst for positive earnings revisions and potentially multiple re-rating.
In the second episode of Pitch the PM, ex-Citadel Analyst & Millennium Senior Portfolio Manager Doug Garber is swayed by Sean Emory’s ZM pitch. Sean has high conviction in his ZM thesis with a mid-teens weight in his portfolios. After more research, Doug also took a position.
10-Step Variant View Investment Checklist
[00:00] Intro
[02:29] What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take?
- Buy
[12:06] Do I UNDERSTAND this business and industry?
- Yes, Sean uses it for his business.
[21:51] Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?
- Yes, at 10x EV/EBITDA and at the low end of the Enterprise Software peers.
[32:48] Why is this stock MISPRICED?
Low growth at 3% as the Online Segment churn at 2-3%/month has reduced the overall company’s growth rate from the Enterprise Segment.
[35:57] What is my VARIANT VIEW vs the street?
- Growth accelerating to high single-digits from low single-digits.
- Adoption of Zoom phone and Zoom Call Center and stability from the Online Segment.
In the first episode of Pitch the PM, ex-Citadel Analyst & Millennium Senior Portfolio Manager, Doug Garber, grills, Analyst, Alex Nuta's BNED pitch. The Analyst uses the 10 Step Variant View Investment Checklist to convince his PM that BNED has the potential to be a 3-bagger.
EP.006: NVDA: Understanding the Bear Case
Episode 6
Thursday, May 15, 2025 • Duration 58:33
Pitch The PM Live
Doug Garber breaks down his thesis on the future of NVIDIA using his Variant View checklist. He draws on insights from his recent episode with Gil Luria and incorporates real-time analytics from our show sponsors
5 key points discussed:
✅ Customer capex from a couple Big Tech customers is flattening out sequentially and that should make it hard for NVDA to continue to beat already high expectations for +$4B of QoQ revenue growth. The debate is how much will others absorb?
✅ The S+D for GPU's is already seeing PRICING pressure in the rent by the hour market - the canary in the coal mine?
✅ Increased competition from customer chips and Chinese chips should erode market share and margins in the medium-term
✅ The underlying GPU customer economics appear unsupported by returns and are being driven by an "Arms Race" mentality that could become fragile with declining stock prices recently
✅ The reduced NVDA valuation implies some bad news is being discounted. We use a reverse-DCF to dig-in here.
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Thanks to FinTool and InSync Analytics for sponsoring this webinar. Use this link to access a complimentary free trial: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=pitchthePM
📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts. https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe
EP.005: Inside The Process Of A Successful Portfolio Manager
Season 1 · Episode 5
Tuesday, May 6, 2025 • Duration 50:32
A couple of weeks ago, Pitch The PM host Doug Garber had the opportunity to interview on the Searching Smarter Podcast at Selby Jennings.
Selby Jennings is doing great work with Searching Smarter, so be sure to catch their latest episode here: https://youtube.com/@selbyjennings8854?si=xxoGyPPIopsnhMcN
📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts. https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe
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The old paths to becoming a portfolio manager are fading. The bar is higher, the competition sharper, and the skill set broader.In this episode, Pitch the PM host Doug Garber, who’s spent time inside multi-manager giants like Citadel and Millennium, lays out what it really takes to make it as a PM today.
We get into:
Why is edge now more about process than predictions?
How to build a signal in a world flooded with noise
What separates the candidates who get hired from those who don’t
If you're aiming to manage risk and capital at the highest level, this one's for you.
Chapter:
0:00 - Intro
2:00 – Doug’s journey into financial services and how he secured roles at Millennium and Citadel.
12:19 – Why process is everything in investing.
13:47 – Understanding the ins and outs of a portfolio manager role.
23:30 – Owning your investment process - what it means and how big firms do it.
28:03 – The role of research in a hedge fund’s success.
30:53 – Is sell-side experience essential to break into the buy-side?
EP 020: Is Open AI in trouble?
Season 1 · Episode 20
Tuesday, December 23, 2025 • Duration 01:04:17
In this episode, Doug sits down with Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, for a wide-ranging and candid discussion on the current state of the AI arms race.Key Takeways:OpenAI has over-promised on the $1.4T of commitments to ORCL, CRWV, etc… and likely has to renegotiate and reduce the scope of its ambitions across the AI value chain to focus on their core like ChatGPT. There are big competitors in the LLM race, such as GOOG and META, so OpenAI will need deep pockets that are willing to bet on Altman to keep the story rolling. Raising capital in the private markets is the near-term solution to solve the funding gap…and all is ok at OpenAI as long as the funding keeps coming and the growth keeps beating expectations….not a lot of margin of error here. If it’s a game of who can lose money the longest, I would not want to bet against GOOG or META’’s cash flow machines. META could find discipline and reduce capex, don;t hold your breath as Zuck has a big ego and a big balance sheet. He’s sending a signal to the market that he is going after AGI and has the balance sheet to do it. Stock would be better off if META split into an infrastructure company and an asset light social media company. The stock price driver in the near-term is based on capex and Zuck’s desire to win the LLM race and AGI. Ugh.GOOG is now the consensus winner, low-cost AI provider and now with a SOTP story. Regulatory breakup behind them and now commercializing TPU’s and marginally ahead in the LLM race. If OpenAI starts to monetize its traffic or new position in the TOF, then it could pose a risk to the consensus long GOOG…No signs of that yet. Will check CarbonArc for the latest digital advertising alternative data. The OpenAI contracts with ORCL and CRWV are “known” to be be unattainable and if they are renegotiated, it could potentially be a positive catalyst for those related stocks that have already discounted a negative outcome depending on the new terms as the negative catalyst is past (potential short covering) or the overhang is removed. Disclosure: Not Investment advice. Host andor affiliates are long GOOG and META and short NVDA.📩 Subscribe for more deep-dive conversations and variant views: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeDoug Garber on LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508Episode partner:💡 Powered by AlphaSense. For complimentary access to their GenAI and expert call library, visit: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/
EP 019: Data Center & Energy Transitions Impact on the Oil & Natural Gas Markets
Season 1 · Episode 19
Friday, December 12, 2025 • Duration 01:08:49
In this Alpha Sense sponsored webinar, we discuss how AI’s power demand is rewriting the energy equation.What started as a “data problem” has become an energy story — and few people have thought more deeply about that intersection than Arjun Murti, former Goldman Partner and author of Super-Spiked.Together, we unpacked:- How data centers consistent energy requirements are changing natural gas markets and the energy transition- Whether oil’s “durable demand” is misunderstood and where we are in the oil cycle- How the energy transition is creating both constraints and investment opportunitiesThis isn’t a conversation you want to miss. Watch on-demand now.*Not investment advice*Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeThis is an Alpha Sense webinar. For a complimentary trial click the link below: https://www.alpha-sense.com/pitch/
EP.010: Is $ZM the Next Stealth AI Winner?
Episode 10
Thursday, July 24, 2025 • Duration 49:44
This episode is a replay of a webinar recorded on May 15th, where Ed Moya interviews Doug Garber, founder of Pitch the PM and Westport Alpha. Doug walks through his 10-step Variant View Checklist to make the case for Zoom ($ZM). Once seen as a COVID-era relic, Zoom is now a misunderstood, cash-rich business with sticky enterprise traction, product expansion into UCaaS, and a setup that offers asymmetric upside if growth reaccelerates.
1. What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take? Doug owns $ZM after hearing Sean Emory pitch it in Episode 2. He sees it as a high-conviction long with multiple ways to win. The company trades at a depressed multiple despite $7B in cash, strong real FCF, and signs of growth reaccelerating through enterprise attach rates and product expansion beyond core video.
2. Do I UNDERSTAND this business? Yes. Doug is a longtime user of Zoom and its competitors. He's reviewed expert calls via AlphaSense, spoken to the company, and built conviction through firsthand usage and external diligence.
3. Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today? Yes. Zoom trades at an 8–10% unlevered FCF yield, and Doug adjusts for dilution of ~2–3% annually. The company remains profitable, debt-free, and is actively buying back shares.
4. Why is this stock MIS-PRICED? The decline in Zoom’s online SMB segment has masked steady enterprise growth. The market sees stagnation. Doug sees a business quietly transitioning into a sticky UCaaS platform with pricing power, expanding attach rates, and increasing value per seat.
5. What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street? Doug believes the street underestimates Zoom’s ability to reignite growth. While consensus focuses on competition from Microsoft and Google, Doug sees Zoom executing faster, particularly with Zoom Phone, Contact Center, and AI integrations.
6. What is the EVIDENCE? He cites AlphaSense expert calls and customer examples—one enterprise boosted spend from $150K to $500K after adopting Zoom Phone. Product feedback is strong, engineering hires from Microsoft signal talent migration, and real-time data from web traffic, app downloads, and channel checks support traction.
EP.009: Cigar Butt Morphing into a Compounder: 50% of NAV & Pivoting to Higher Return Industries
Episode 9
Wednesday, July 9, 2025 • Duration 46:05
In this episode of Pitch the PM, Doug welcomes Mark Layton, CFO of Mammoth Energy Services (NASDAQ: TUSK), to explore one of his highest conviction investment ideas and his first of twenty lifetime “Buffett punchcard” investments. This small cap company ($132 MM market cap) is valued below cash levels ($150 MM) with the market giving the company no credit for its existing businesses or underutilized equipment that was recently valued at $145 MM by an independent appraiser. The company recently exited its largest industrial business for $110 MM (more than 3x MOIC), has its land drilling rigs held for sale and subsequent to the recording of this episode sold its frac assets for $15 MM. Mammoth, with the help of its largest shareholder - Wexford, is targeting 25-35% unlevered IRR’s in the aviation rental space where it has a robust pipeline. The company is also incubating its engineering, fiber, and rental equipment businesses. Doug views this as a private equity investment in a public shell without the fees. - Growing the rental business. Mammoth has oilfield rental equipment and helicopters in the portfolio and in April 2025 they purchased 8 airplane. Seeing deal flow through Wexford with unlevered IRR’s at 25-35%.- TUSK is in a void in the capital markets and it resembles a private equity company in a public shell. - 2024 was the worst year for natural gas. Historical presence in the Marcellus and Utica from the co-investment of Gulfport and Wexford to form the initial frac company. 6 frac spreads in total, but lack sufficient scale [Note: Mammoth sold their frac equipment on June 16, 2025]. - View capital allocation like a private equity shop.- Accommodations was its own segment after the IPO, it has done well. Formed by Wexford in 2006/07. Renewed interest in the oil sands. Looking at investments there that can increase the room rates. Have a good leader there and has generated steady FCF. Used this unit for Puerto Rico housing.- Opportunity for expansion into construction. Returns are mid to high teens, unlevered.- Engineering and fiber businesses — Built the businesses around the leaders. As we look at incubating the Engineering business, it should trade for low to mid double digits EBITDA multiple. Fiber has taken a little longer to ramp up, but government funds are starting to hit the market. Can potentially do acquisitions as fiber is fragmented- Grow rental business in OFS and aircraft. Aircraft are the most attractive. Continue to evaluate the remote accommodations business. Firm up the fiber business. - Wexford’s waived consulting fee and provides access to deal flow without the $500,000 fee as they own 47%. Thoughtful patient investors.Links:📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe💡 This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 Mark Layton: https://www.linkedin.com/in/markelaytonMammoth Energy Services: https://www.mammothenergy.com/*Not Investment Advice
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Yes, I covered the pool industry as a PM at Millennium, and it’s a relatively simple business to understand.
06:28 What is the MARGIN OF SAFETY?
No replacement value or BV support. Good business as measured by ROIC and FCF and a leading position in a good industry where scale has advantages.
10:00 Is the stock available BELOW INTRINSIC VALUE?
No, the stock seems fully valued at a 4% unlevered FCF yield.
What is Berkshire’s Potential VARIANT VIEW?
Berkshire likely thinks the company can get back to mid-teens FCF/share growth per historical trends vs the implied consensus of mid-single digit growth.
17:28 Does the business operate in a GOOD INDUSTRY?
Yes, the pool distribution business is a good industry. It is mostly recurring revenue and asset light.
19:55 Is this a BAD, GOOD, or GREAT BUSINESS?
Great business at an “almost fair price” in a post-COVID downturn.
21:36 Does the business have a WIDE MOAT?
The company has constantly generated excess ROIC and has advantages in its store locations being near customer pool routes, in being the largest buyer from manufacturers to obtain procurement discounts, in having a large footprint to optimize inventory management, and a leading tech interface for customers.
24:11 Are management INCENTIVE ALIGNED?
Yes, management is compensated on ROIC and EPS growth.
28:18 Is this one of your 20 lifetime PUNCH CARDS?
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Avory & Company - Investing Where The World is Headed. Avory & Co runs a high-conviction growth equity strategy focusing on quality, well-led companies offering long-term sustainable growth. Sean Emory earned his degree at Yale. He was a co-founder of Blink App and founder and current CIO of Avory & Co.
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41:00 – Capital Allocation, Big Tech CapEx & Future Catalysts
57:50 – Q&A: On Shorts, CapEx, Demand Cycles & More
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▶️ MORE EPISODES:
NVDA: As Good As It Gets https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlM
POOL: Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s POOL Investment: Buying a Great Company in a Lull https://youtu.be/190LgD6BdmQ?si=2rRej5lAdh4RLa0s
ZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=gKYXfFLL6nLUVnuc
BNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGxFollow
Pitch The PM:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pitch-the-pm
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Not Investment Advice. For Educational Purposes. See disclaimers at PitchThePM.com
35:14 – How the talent bar is changing in investment roles.
38:40 – How aspiring traders and financial services professionals can stand out in today’s market
41:09 – Is investing in AI underhyped or overhyped?
43:59 – Behind the scenes of the Pitch The PM podcast.
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▶️ MORE EPISODES:
BNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap: https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=g9PUvXBFDAC0zAqm
ZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst: https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=K0fRA4fO4e6ztIr-
POOL: Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s POOL Investment: Buying a Great Company in a Lull: https://youtu.be/190LgD6BdmQ?si=D5ku7gBaWB3IzdkW
NVDA: As Good As It Gets https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlM?si=ETW2jhfPsWJ_wD0R
Follow Pitch The PM:LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 X: https://x.com/PitchThePM
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PitchThePM
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Not Investment Advice. For Educational Purposes. See disclaimers at PitchThePM.com
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7. What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize the view? Improved enterprise attach, stabilization in online, AI companion usage, strategic M&A or capital deployment, and beat-and-raise quarters are potential catalysts. Investor perception could shift as Zoom repositions as a broader platform with pricing leverage.
8. What is it WORTH if the bet is right? Doug sees upside to $150/share. If growth improves to mid-single digits and the FCF yield compresses to 4–5%, the stock could deliver 70–90% total upside over time. Optionality from the $7B balance sheet could accelerate that outcome through smart M&A.
9. What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet? Downside risk exists if growth flattens or declines further. Doug estimates 20–30% downside in that case, but the $7B in cash and stable FCF provide a strong margin of safety. Even in a bear case, the asset could be attractive to a strategic acquirer.
10. Is MANAGEMENT ALIGNED with ownership? Mixed. Founder Eric Yuan still owns ~8% and recently returned to a product-focused role. However, stock-based comp has been elevated, though the company is now shifting toward cash comp. Culture and product velocity remain strengths.
Disclaimer: Not investment advice. Guests may hold positions and are under no obligation to update. Do your own research and consult with a financial advisor. Shorting is risky and should be discussed with a professional.
