Explore every episode of the podcast Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday I had Wilson from HFI Research back on the podcast to give us an update on the energy sector. We talked about current events and sanctions, what US oil production will look like over the next 18 months, and what OPEC has planned for that same timeframe. If you’re trying to get a feel for what the rest of 2025 and 2026 hold for the energy sector, you will enjoy this one. You can find his Substack below, but you can also find him on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The knee jerk reaction to sanctions on Russian oil, and why they won’t stick.

* Chinese inventories increasing, if/when China will stop buying, and Chinese oil demand.

* Positioning in distillates (diesel) being at bullish extremes, and how long it might take for that positioning to unwind.

* His thoughts on the refining sector, and why it will take some time to see a more favorable environment for refiners.

* Associated gas production in the US outpacing crude oil production due to deteriorating well results.

* Producers in the Permian saying that their production is going to plateau. Chevron as an example recently revised guidance for higher gas and NGL production and lower crude production.

* Why he’s expecting flat US crude oil production into year end.

* What US production might look like if oil prices go higher into 2026.

* The case for natural gas, and why it’s based on a structural demand increase for LNG.

* Why the Haynesville is the only region of the US capable of providing excess gas.

* Why Canada is in a different situation when it comes to natural gas, and why AECO (Canadian natural gas) will never trade at premium to Henry Hub (US natural gas).

* OPEC, and what they have in store for the rest of 2025 and into 2026, and why he sees WTI heading back down into the 60s later this year.

* The signposts he’s looking for as far as Saudi production, OPEC, and US production to get very bullish on oil.

* Why things in energy markets get obvious before the price move happens.

* Offshore drillers, and the structural supply deficit that is going to benefit from increased offshore capex in coming years.

* Oil sands producers in Canada, and why producers with long reserve life assets are attractive.

* The political environment in Canada, the offtake capacity being a bottleneck longer term, and why they will continue to consolidate north of the border.

* The 2018 blowout in WCS-WTI differentials (Canadian oil prices vs. US).

* Venezuela, the waivers for Chevron, Mexico, and other producers that might be off the radar.

* The lack of exploration spending, and what it means for oil and different subsectors from now until 2030.

* Book Recommendation: Apple in China by Patrick McGee & Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson.

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Yesterday I had Charles Spadille on the podcast for a fascinating conversation on the state of the US. He has a background as a federal immigration enforcement officer, so we got into immigration and the impact it has had on the US over the last several decades. We also got into the generational divide, the dynamics between men and women, and the coming “Fix It” moment. Anyone who watches Peter R. Quiñones’ Thought Crime Syndicate episodes should be familiar with Charles, but you can find him on Twitter and Telegram (@whiskeyandashes).

No man is exempt his zeitgeist. We all grew up in the world we grew up in, for better or for worse or for good or for ill.

- Charles Spadille

Podcast Summary

* The Dignity Act, and why it basically looks like an Amnesty bill.

* The demographic changes that have happened across the country over the last several decades.

* The number of illegals in the US and chain migration.

* The generational divide, why younger generations are frustrated, and why the grass is always greener.

* The dynamics between men and women, how making women equal will fix it, and the difference between work and adult daycare jobs.

* The changing priorities of younger generations.

* The fix it moment, and why it is inevitable.

* Why the fix it moment won’t fix a democratic republic and his thoughts on monarchy.

* Book Recommendations: How To Win Friends And Influence People by Dale Carnegie, No More Mr. Nice Guy by Robert Glover & Man’s Search For Meaning by Viktor Frankl.

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I have been getting some questions and had a couple of conversations over the weekend on Sable Offshore’s $SOC court hearing on Friday. I briefly touched on the other cases (the CCC and the Permit Transfer), but laid out the importance of the Consent Decree and CEQA in the EDC/CBD case. I also shared some thoughts on why Geck might be trying to thread the needle with the injunction AND the caveat that the OSFM can sign off and Sable can produce after 10 days.

My rough estimate for full operations is mid-August, give or take a couple weeks, but the other side is all but guaranteed to play whatever cards they have left. I wrapped up talking about why the next two weeks could give shorts time to exit, and quick thoughts on the options chain, and why some investors are still underestimating fair value. The short term will almost certainly continue to be volatile, but we have some clarity on what the next 4-6 weeks holds as far as jumping through regulatory and legal hoops for Sable.

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On Tuesday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast to cover about recent events, precious metals, energy, and geopolitics. We talked about the return of mercantilism, mineral wars, other big picture topics, and how they feed into financial markets and commodities. You should all follow his Substack below for his updates on precious metals, but you can also find him on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The trend of deglobalization, and why America needs to become more self-sufficient in manufacturing.

* Why platinum has been on the move recently, and why it will take some time to digest the rally over the last couple months.

* Chinese demand for platinum, the ties to palladium, and the fundamental changes in the market for platinum.

* A couple bold proclamations about a big move coming in silver.

* Why gold will drag other commodities higher in coming years.

* Big banks favoring gold and copper over silver.

* The geopolitical crosscurrents in oil, and the recent media frenzy on the Strait of Hormuz.

* Why they wouldn’t close the Strait of Hormuz unless Israel targeted Kharg Island.

* The ties between bitcoin and the Treasury market, and the Machiavellian system being built to sell treasuries.

* Book Recommendation: Street Smarts by Linda Raschke.

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Over the weekend I had several interesting conversations with investors about Sable’s hearing on Friday this week, so I wanted to share some of those thoughts briefly. I also talked about precious metals, including platinum. Offshore oil services and coal stocks have also been moving lately, so I weighed in on those as well. Both sectors are still very cheap today.

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This is Part 2 of my discussion on Monday with Clay Martin and E.M. Burlingame. This one covers some of the differences between men and women, how to fix the so-called gender divide, and some of the changes that might be on the horizon in coming years. We also got into the future for the US, why the best years could be ahead of us, and how a tax revolt could be a (more) peaceful revolution. If you haven’t had the chance to watch Part 1, I would go watch that first.

Podcast Summary

* The differences between men and women, and how society has changed the roles of each over the last 200 years.

* The health impacts of birth control on both men and women.

* Why the birth control pill should be illegal, and why it would fix several problems quickly.

* The massive gap between what is right and what is legal.

* How the agenda from the media impacts men and women.

* Why the relationship between men and women could be fixed quickly after some changes.

* Why the best years for the US could be ahead of us, after a messy decade to come.

* How a tax revolt could play out, and why it could be the most peaceful path from here.

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On Monday, I recorded my first in-person podcast with Clay Martin and E.M. Burlingame. E.M. was kind enough to host, and it was a long and fascinating conversation. Clay Martin is a former Recon Marine and Green Beret, and he has also become a prolific author over the last several years. You can find his books on Amazon, and he’s also a very entertaining follow on Twitter. We decided to break the podcast into two parts, so Part 2 will be up tomorrow morning. In Part 1, we covered a bunch of topics, from the recent Epstein circus to all of the other rabbit holes we have been down over the last several years. In Part 2, we get around to solving the rest of the world’s problems.

Podcast Summary

* The Epstein files circus, and blackmail being one time use.

* The health rabbit hole, covering the jab, to fluoride in the water, genetically modified food, seed oils, and everything in between.

* The dying mainstream media, the propaganda of the regime, and how Substack and social media will be the new battleground for the information war.

* Artificial intelligence (language learning models), some of the flaws that are built into the system.

* The state of the economy and financial markets, and how demographics and economics drive things.

* The knowledge transfer from the Boomer generation.

* Student loans as the largest asset of the government and not being able to default on student debt.

* Potential changes in government, and if (when) the US will get a Caesar figure.

* The state of military technology and how things develop on that front.

* Building businesses outside of the financial market liquidity bubble, and what probably happens to the banking system and financial markets over the next decade.

* The demographic state of the US, immigration, and how NGOs and other groups fuel the tension on social media.

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On Friday I had John Polomny back on the podcast, and this time we got into some of the individual names he likes in several different sectors. We talked about oil, uranium, and other commodities, but we also got into several other things that fly under the radar in other markets around the world. At the end of the podcast, I was able to get John going on the state of the world as far as geopolitics and current events. It was fun to go back and forth with him, because the political section of his weekly updates are my favorite part. You can find John on Substack below, and on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The lousy sentiment in oil, and where he is positioned for what he sees coming over the next several years.

* We talked a bit about some of the Canadian energy names and their long lived assets, and why he thinks the Canadian energy sector will continue to consolidate.

* Opportunities in offshore oil services outside of the main offshore drillers.

* Going past peak ESG, the bottlenecks in uranium, a couple different ideas he’s looking at in that sector, and why that sector is ripe for consolidation as well.

* The role of gold in the financial end game and a couple mining companies he likes.

* Why he thinks it’s an interesting time to start looking at some of the juniors, as well as some opportunities in the royalty sector.

* Why silver, platinum, and palladium are going to play catch up to gold.

* The financialized economy, the underinvestment in the commodities sector, and his view on gold to oil.

* His thoughts on coal, copper, and tin.

* Why he’s starting to look into agricultural and fertilizer stocks.

* Other places he sees value, like South America, European banks and other obscure ideas in Europe, and under the radar opportunities in China and Hong Kong.

* We also went back and forth at the end on geopolitics, US politics, and the state of the world, and why he expects more chaos and volatility around the world over the next several years.

* Note: we recorded on Friday, before the US hit three Iranian nuclear sites yesterday.

* Book Recommendation: Shareholder Yield by Meb Faber.

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Yesterday I had E.M. Burlingame back on the podcast, and we covered a bunch of different topics. We hit on everything from current events and geopolitics, estrogen based warfare, where he sees the US headed over the next several years and longer term, and the hyper-financialized economies of the West. I will be having him back on soon to discuss what he is working on in the health and medicine area, and why it is extremely important for people to understand some of the things that have happened with food and medicine over the last 80 years. You can find him on Twitter (after a return from a hiatus), or on his Substack below.

Podcast Summary

* Current events across the world, including what is going on in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and here in the US.

* Why he sees recent events as part of one big color revolution, and his view on estrogen based warfare.

* How the events in Israel and Iran might play out, and why Iran is stronger than many in the West think.

* Why the US empire is pulling back due to financial constraints.

* The LA riots, immigration, and the prospect for more civil unrest.

* The coming Constitutional crisis, the power of judges, and why the local level is extremely important moving forward.

* What he sees as the 2026 midterm elections approach.

* How the coming generational change might impact the path of the US.

* How the events in 2020 and lockdowns were a dividing line for recent events.

* Why he thinks America’s best years are still ahead if we can get through the bumpy period he sees coming over the next decade.

* The potential for the US to end up in a more hierarchical form of government like a Constitutional monarchy.

* His view on Europe and the path forward there.

* How technology and warfare has changed, but some important aspects have stayed the same.

* What he sees coming for the hyper-financialization for economies across the West.

* Why the West has a collateral problem, and how the US could create a sovereign wealth fund

* Book Recommendation: The Secret History of Mongol Queens by Jack Weatherford.

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Yesterday I had Trader Ferg on the podcast again to talk about his big picture view of financial markets. We got into his favorite commodities, his high level thoughts on which subsectors are the most attractive, and his view of the big picture from 30,000 feet. It was a great conversation, and if you aren’t already familiar with his work on Substack, you should check it out below.

Podcast Summary

* Why he has the most conviction on oil long-term, some of the information sources he follows, and what subsectors he favors.

* His view on the important question for energy investors, which is “Can the Permian Basin ramp production again, and if it can, how much production can they bring online?”

* Platinum group metals, including rhodium, and Anglo selling the bottom again by spinning out Valterra.

* Gold to oil, and why this time might be different if gold is used to recapitalize the system.

* What he sees in the coal sector, the royalty regime in Australia, and why he’s partial to met coal names in the US.

* Uranium and the potential for a short squeeze.

* We went into a couple other metals, and he laid out why he is very bullish on tin and not all that excited about copper.

* Shipping and shipyards, and why you have to be careful in shipyards with China’s dominant position in shipbuilding.

* Debt, deficits, TLT, and why all roads lead to inflation.

* Why he isn’t as bullish on natural gas as other commodities.

* Battling the psychological ups and downs in markets and the difficulty of having a long-term view with the short-termism that dominates financial markets today.

* Book Recommendations: House of Huawei by Eva Dou & Meditations by Marcus Aurelius

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Before I get into the post today, I wanted to give everyone a heads up that I will be on the road for a couple weeks starting next week. I’ll be in the Portland area for a couple days starting next Sunday (June 22-25), then in Minneapolis for the back half of next week (June 26-29), and then in Seattle until the 4th of July. If anyone wants to meet up in the next couple weeks and it happens to work with your schedule, feel free to send me a DM.

Over the last couple weeks, I have spent a lot of time on the phone trying to get a feel for how Sable Offshore $SOC is going to proceed from here. In the video, I laid out how the next couple months could play out regarding the hearing on July 18, OSFM sign off, and what happens if the company has to appeal to a higher court. I explained the logic behind a recent trade I made, and why I think this thing gets resolved in the next couple months. I also talked about recent geopolitical events between Iran and Israel, what might happen with oil, and how it might impact China specifically.

Disclaimer

I own shares and calls on Sable Offshore. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.

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On Tuesday I had PauloMacro back on the podcast, and we covered everything from oil and precious metals, to geopolitics, market structure, bonds, and the risks he sees in different corners of the market. I don’t always listen to my own podcasts a second time, but I had to go back for seconds yesterday. Listeners will definitely get a lot to think about from this one, whether you are interested in oil, the metals, or a big picture view of financial markets. For anyone that isn’t familiar with Paulo, I have included a link to his Substack below.

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On Wednesday, I had Dave Collum back on the podcast. As always, it was an entertaining and wide ranging conversation. It’s worth a listen if you have the time this weekend. We talked the overvaluation in financial markets, some of the non-fundamental drivers, commodities, and private equity. We also covered different problems facing society, from changes coming for the university system, demographics, and more. We didn’t even have time to dive into some of the rabbit holes he has been going down lately, so I will definitely be having him back on the podcast sooner rather than later. You can find Dave on Twitter, and I’m already looking forward to his 2025 Year In Review.

Podcast Summary

* His view on financial markets, valuations, and other distortions in the financial system.

* He mentioned the increasing volume and frequency about the Fourth Turning.

* Gold, silver, platinum and his view on the precious metals, and which ones are the most attractive right now.

* Entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, and some of the demographic changes happening now.

* Feminism, changes coming for the university system, and the connection between private equity and the endowment problem.

* The toxic sludge in private equity and private equity and how that might manifest itself in coming years.

* We talked about energy and went back and forth on the different arguments on the Permian rolling over, and different subsectors in energy that look interesting today.

* Uranium, Coal, and other opportunities in the commodities space that look appealing.

* Book Recommendation: The True Believer by Eric Hoffer.

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On Monday I had first time guest Jesse Felder on the podcast to cover a bunch of different things going on in financial markets. We talked about his view on a commodities supercycle, and why he finds energy particularly attractive currently. We also talked currencies, passive investing, real estate, and several other topics. It was a fun conversation, and for investors with views that are outside of the consensus, it might be interesting. You can find Jesse at his website, The Felder Report, and on Twitter and Bluesky.

Podcast Summary

* Energy, and his thoughts on gold to oil being at extreme levels.

* Which pockets of the market are seeing insider buying.

* Why he thinks we are in a commodities supercycle.

* Oil equities being more attractive than natural gas at current levels.

* Gold and the miners, and why we might see a pullback in gold in the next 3-6 months.

* His view on why the dollar is currently overvalued relative to other currencies.

* How cheap commodities are relative to stocks and bonds, and how long a commodities cycle might last.

* How passive and other forms of investing distort financial markets.

* Active management making a comeback in the next several years.

* Why we could see stagflation moving forward from here.

* The path for interest rates, the potential for yield curve control, and where real estate might be headed over the next several years.

* Book Recommendation: The Confidence Map by Peter Atwater.

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I had a couple thoughts rolling around my head on Sable Offshore $SOC , along with some visuals that I wanted to share. I’ll keep pounding the table because I think this freight train is about to leave the station.

On Friday I had Jon Costello on the podcast to focus on the energy sector, and some of the individual ideas he likes in different subsectors and geographies. He writes on the HFIR Ideas side for HFI Research. It was the perfect follow up conversation after I had Wilson on the podcast last Wednesday. If you’re looking for a starting point for your research on some single stock ideas in the energy space, you will enjoy this podcast.

Podcast Summary

* Jon’s big picture view on energy over the next 6-18 months, and his approach to investing in the sector.

* Why he favors the Canadian energy names and offshore oil services.

* What happens to North American energy companies with oil below $70 a barrel as far as Capex cuts and production growth.

* The impact of the Canadian election on the Canadian companies and the macro picture for oil.

* Which Canadian names he likes and why, from the large companies to smaller names that aren’t as widely followed.

* British Petroleum $BP and Elliott Management’s activist push to get them to focus on their traditional oil and gas assets.

* Offshore oil services, the embedded call option in the stacked capacity of some of these companies, why he prefers the deepwater companies, and which companies he favors in the sector.

* He lays out the nuance he sees on natural gas vs. oil, and his thoughts on being bullish on gas being a more consensus view today.

* Midstream ideas, MLPs, and which stocks he favors in sector.

* Book Recommendation: Descartes’ Error by Antonio Damasio.

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Yesterday I had Wilson from HFI Research back on the podcast to discuss everything going on lately when it comes to oil. We talked about OPEC, Capex cuts in the Permian, and how he expects the next couple years will play out in the energy space. If you are listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, you might want to switch over to Substack or YouTube so you can see the charts on the video. You can find HFI Research on Substack below, but you can also find him on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The recent news from OPEC, and why the production cut that is now being unwound was really a Saudi production cut, not an OPEC cut.

* Why the OPEC production boost doesn’t signal an incoming price war.

* The disconnect between the narrative and reality when it comes to OPEC.

* How tariff and macro uncertainty factor into the perception of oil demand for the rest of 2025.

* How OPEC is forcing the inevitable, and why he thinks non-OPEC oil supply will disappoint to the downside moving forward.

* Capex cuts in the Permian due to lower oil prices, and the disconnect between consensus US production vs. the HFI estimates.

* Why he thinks we will see more Capex cuts in the Permian in coming months, especially if oil sits around $60 a barrel.

* How all of this leads to a structural supply deficit for oil from 2026 and beyond.

* The timing problem when it comes to buying energy equities and the disconnect between the fundamentals and the narrative when it comes to oil.

* Why $70 a barrel was the worst case scenario for shale operators.

* Why we could see more M&A in the Permian.

* His view on tariff and trade deal negotiations, and why he doesn’t see a quick resolution.

* His view on Iranian sanctions, and why they won’t be effective.

* The Strategic Petroleum Reserve being filled up and why logistical issues mean it will take a long time to refill.

* Why natural gas will be the first energy commodity to go into a bull market, and why he thinks we could see a spike in natural gas this summer.

* Potential scenarios where the US might have to shut in LNG export capacity in 2026.

* What he prioritizes when he is looking at natural gas equities: the lowest cost producers, and producers that are not as hedged.

* His thoughts on the challenges of entrepreneurship.

* Book Recommendations: The Nvidia Way by Tae Kim, Source Code by Bill Gates & Shoe Dog by Phil Knight.

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Yesterday I had Andy from Finding Value Finance back on the podcast. We talked about commodities, different ratios like gold to oil, and his long term thoughts on where markets are headed. If you happen to be listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, you might want to switch over to Substack or YouTube so you can see the charts on the video. It was a great conversation and will definitely be food for thought on long term market cycles, and some of the most attractive places to look in the market right now. You can find him at Finding Value Finance, on YouTube, and on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* How the devaluation of the dollar impacts how commodities move long term.

* The importance of zooming out and looking at long term charts.

* What he sees with oil inventories and from conference calls from several subsectors in energy.

* The bearish narrative around tariff uncertainty, recession and oil demand, and OPEC spare capacity.

* What he sees for natural gas and oil services moving forward.

* The gold to oil ratio (more than 55 barrels for one ounce of gold), and why he doesn’t see the ratio blowing out even more from here.

* Why he’s still bullish on gold, but finds other precious metals like platinum and silver more attractive at today’s prices.

* What he likes outside of energy and precious metals, from lithium to agricultural commodities, coal, and steel.

* His thoughts on residential real estate and some of the crosswinds that will have an impact over the next 3-5 years.

* Book Recommendation: The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel.

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On Friday I had Michael Every on the podcast to discuss recent geopolitical events and how he views the world. He’s a Global Strategist at Rabobank and a guest that I have been looking forward to chatting with for some time. We talked about important shifts happening right now in financial markets, US and China relations, and how he looks at the political changes and uncertainty around recent events. The best place to find him is on Twitter, where his daily updates on current events are a must read.

Podcast Summary

* The difference between Economic Policy and Economic Statecraft.

* The shift from the primary focus being on what is good for financial markets to what is good for national security.

* The state of play between the US and China, and the different pressure points for each country.

* Some of the distortions in the Chinese economy, from real estate to manufacturing.

* How the financial media distorts the narrative around recent events and tariffs.

* The importance of asking the question: “What is GDP for?”

* How Europe will be forced to make a decision between the US and China.

* How some of the conflicts around the world might develop from here.

* US shifting its focus to North and South America and China and pulling back from the Middle East and Europe.

* Gold’s role moving forward, and why the US won’t abandon the dollar reserve currency.

* How the US could approach a sovereign wealth fund.

* Book Recommendation: Trade Wars Are Class Wars by Matthew Klein and Michael Pettis.

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Yesterday I had PurpleDrinkCapital on the podcast to discuss what is going on recently in financial markets. We talked about the uncertainty around how things will play out, sentiment on equities and energy, several individual names he likes, and more. It was a fun conversation and his career experience gives him some insight on energy in particular. You can find him on Twitter, as well as on Substack below.

Podcast Summary

* His view on the overall market and the potential for a Zweig Breadth Thrust.

* Overall sentiment on broader markets and the energy sector.

* Shale in the Permian being in terminal decline, and why the case for a commodities bull market is growing stronger by the day.

* Why he likes Antero Resources $AR in the natural gas producer space and Williams $WMB in the pipeline space.

* Why Cheniere $LNG is his favorite in the LNG space.

* Some thoughts on valuing commodity producers.

* Why he is interested in Bitcoin and owns some Coinbase $COIN .

* How financial markets are moving in light of recent geopolitical uncertainty.

* How his career experience in the energy space gives him an advantage when looking at ways to express his views on certain commodities.

* His views on stimulus on the horizon and how it ties into commodities (and not just gold).

* Book Recommendation: The Harry Potter books.

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Last Friday I had Dexter White back on the podcast to talk about some of the recent chaos across the world. We talked about Trump’s first three months in office, the complicated geopolitical chessboard, and several different aspects of the media landscape. It was a great conversation and will definitely give listeners something to think about on a bunch of different topics. You can find Dexter on Twitter, as well as at Gold Goats n’ Guns.

Podcast Summary

* Trump 2.0 and tariffs, and the intent behind the chaotic messaging.

* The unified message of the media.

* The importance of having certain industries in the US, from pharmaceuticals, steel, and military supply chains.

* The other motivations behind Trump’s approach to dealing with China.

* The Monroe Doctrine or Trumpian Manifest Destiny when it comes to the Panama Canal, Greenland, and Canada.

* China’s dominance in drone technology and production.

* The ZOPA (zone of potential agreement), the Art of the Deal, and Trump’s approach to negotiations with other countries.

* The importance of the fentanyl crisis and the 100,000 people that die on an annual basis in the US. It’s not military tactics, but it is a form of warfare.

* The propaganda and the signal to noise ratio when it comes to financial media.

* The structural demand change in gold, what it means for the gold to silver ratio, and other commodities.

* His thoughts on energy, from oil to gas to coal as well.

* Book Recommendation: Unrestricted Warfare by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui.

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I want to wish everyone a Happy Easter and give everyone the podcast I promised on Thursday. I talked a bit about the geopolitical situation, the lack of certainty, a couple trends that I am certain about, and some thoughts on oil.

Podcast Summary

Yesterday I had Tom Luongo back on the podcast to discuss some of the recent chaos in financial markets. We covered some of the connections between moves in different currencies and markets, the geopolitical picture, commodities, and much more. I assume most of you are familiar with Tom’s work, but if not, you can find him at Gold Goats n’ Guns and on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* Why his focus in the cross market moves was the rise in the Euro, British Pound, and the Canadian dollar, not the basis trade.

* The problem with believing we have free markets.

* How he sees things resolving between the US and China.

* Waiting to see how Canadian elections turn out to see what Trump’s approach to Canada will look like.

* One of the biggest advantages of the US is access to deep and liquid financial markets.

* The progression of spending cuts and what they need to focus on, and why it’s important that they cut off the spending that was being used to try to destroy the US (USAID, NED, etc) first.

* His view on commodities, from gold and silver, to oil and copper, and why recent moves there are selling a recession trade. He isn’t sure if that is real or not.

* Gold as a safe haven and as the collateral for the future.

* Bitcoin, and the Treasury demand driven by the growth of stablecoins.

* Europe’s plans for Ukraine, and the progress of the talks between the US and Iran.

* The difference between Trump the person and the character he plays on TV.

* The budget resolution, the tax cuts, and tariffs, and how they are related.

* Why he is bullish on the Russell 2000 longer term if Trump is successful on deregulation and tax cuts.

* Book Recommendation: The Chronicles of Thomas Covenant by Stephen Donaldson.

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On Thursday I had Russell Clark on the podcast for the first time for a great conversation. We talked about the US financial markets looking like an emerging market, how politics drives financial markets, and some of the things he’s watching right now. We also talked a little bit about the launch of his new fund, Brumby Capital.

Podcast Summary

* How the US is behaving like an emerging market, and how financial market correlations might change moving forward.

* Why Treasuries aren’t behaving like a safe haven, and the path to double digit interest rates.

* The political drive to rebalance financial markets.

* Where things lead for private equity and private credit, especially with higher rates.

* The trend of Gold vs. TLT and Gold vs. S&P 500.

* Oil, LNG, and the interactions between the different parts of the energy sector.

* Geopolitics in the Middle East and Ukraine, and some of the different powerful factions in each region.

* Europe and Japan remilitarizing.

* Securing supply lines and the change from globalization to deglobalization.

* The complicated relationship between the US and China, and where things might be headed from here.

* His plans for Brumby Capital, which he is in the process of launching now.

* Book Recommendation: Age of Extremes by Eric Hobsbawm.

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Yesterday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast again, this time to talk about what is going on between the US and China. It was a fascinating conversation on the tariff situation, what negotiations might look like, and where things might be headed. We also talked about gold, oil, the worst case scenarios for the US and China, and how they might meet in the middle. You can find Vince on his Substack as well as on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The tug of war between how the US debt markets need China, and how the Chinese economy needs the US consumer.

* The breakdown in trust leading to a breakdown in credit.

* Japan, China, and Europe all taking money out of US markets and bringing it home.

* Everyone heading for the exit at the same time, US funds and institutions trying to front run it, and you see those moves in the currencies, especially yesterday. “It’s an FX operation. Are they doing it all at once? No.”

* Tariffs are a tool to accelerate some of the changes that need to happen.

* How the correlations between different asset classes are changing.

* Gold as the pet rock, and the potential for stagflation.

* How the China and US situation is likely to play out.

* The worst case scenario for each country and working back towards the middle for a potential resolution.

* For the US, the worst case scenario is the loss of the US dollar as the global reserve currency.

* For China, that is the punitive tariffs and a Chinese Great Depression.

* Trump talking about tax cuts and the timeline for resolving things with China.

* The nuclear option for China being a return to the gold standard.

* The nuclear option for the US is to start a war.

* The potential for a financial iron curtain between the East and the West.

* What a resolution between China and the US means for oil.

* Book Recommendation: The Grand Chessboard by Zbigniew Brzezinski.

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Yesterday I had Mel Mattison on to talk about the recent chaos in financial markets and Trump’s tariff plan. We talked about how expects a resolution in the next six to eight weeks on tariff negotiations (maybe sooner), and why China is the target of Trump’s recent announcement. We also covered the crosscurrents facing the administration as far as the financial system and geopolitics. It was a great conversation on what is going on today in financial markets, and should provide some perspective on where things might be going. You can find Mel on Twitter, and he’s worth a follow for anyone interested in finance.

Podcast Summary

* Why he was expecting a pullback in the S&P 500 at the start of the year, why he thinks the selloff could continue into May depending on the path of the tariff talks, and how a rally could be coming by year end.

* The crosscurrents of dealing with the debt refinance, tax receipts from capital gains, deficits, and inflation.

* Why the US needs to have a more robust manufacturing base, and how policymakers might pursue that objective.

* Why China is in the crosshairs of Trump’s recent tariff announcements.

* Triffin’s Dilemma, and the tug of war between the US dollar being the world reserve currency and trade deficits, and the move towards a neutral reserve asset like gold.

* Why real wages is a focus of Scott Bessent and the Trump administration, and why they might tolerate more inflation.

* His thoughts on the commodities complex.

* The difference between sharp selloffs and long drawn out bear markets, and what that means for the recovery period.

* Why he isn’t expecting the worst case scenario of a Great Depression type event.

* The geopolitical chessboard, and why he is more worried about the Middle East than the conflict in Ukraine.

* Trump as a showman, and why he will probably decide he doesn’t want to be Herbert Hoover.

* Why he cautions against a doomsday perspective when it comes to markets.

* Book Recommendations: Lords of Finance by Liaquat Ahamed & Quoz by Mel Mattison.

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On Friday afternoon I had Dylan Marrello back on the podcast for a Happy Hour podcast. We talked about the bloodbath in financial markets on Thursday and Friday, the broad uncertainty around tariffs, and wild swings in the market. He pointed out that Trump Derangement Syndrome might potentially impacting investor’s negative sentiment and the extreme fear that the sky is falling after a couple of rough days. We also talked about the misaligned incentives that have turned 5-6 months into a “long-term” time horizon.

I picked his brain on several different sectors, from offshore oil services, to a couple deep value opportunities in the Cannabis sector (one of which is a net-net). He also talked about the potential for changing regulations in the broadcasting sector and the torque that some stocks offer there. He laid out the bull case for his favorite microcap real estate play, and the advantages that America still has, despite some of the recent chaos. There is a lot of uncertainty, shifting global alliances, and no one knows what the next 6-12 months hold.

We also got into some of the problems facing the West, and Wall Street’s parasitic relationship with the rest of the US. He’s still optimistic about the US, and pointed out that Trump’s approach to tariffs has been intentionally chaotic, and why the status quo needs to be broken. Trump is the catalyst for change. Something was going to break at some point anyway, and he thought it’s a good sign that someone is actually thinking out further than a year into the future. It was a great conversation that will have a little bit of something for everybody.

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On Friday I had Roger LaFontaine (an alias) on the podcast to talk about what is going on in Canada right now. He writes a Substack called Nugget Capital Partners, which is focused on opportunities in Canadian markets, primarily in the Energy and Real Estate sectors. We talked about the upcoming election in Canada, his thoughts on different stocks in Canadian markets, and what he looks for when evaluating those opportunities. He is an entertaining follow on Twitter, especially if you have any interest in the energy sector.

Podcast Summary

* What he sees for the upcoming Canadian election, and why he doesn’t think we will see a conservative majority even if Polievre wins.

* Why Trump is good for the Canadian energy sector.

* “Carbon Tax Carney” dropping the consumer carbon tax but not the industrial carbon tax.

* The “in house algo” at Nugget Capital Partners

* The total shift in Canadian politics in recent weeks.

* The potential to revive the Keystone XL pipeline project.

* What he looks for in Canadian energy companies, and his thoughts on buybacks vs. dividends.

* Why he’s not a fan of the Whitecap and Veren deal.

* Why he likes Strathcona Resources, Precision Drilling, and Total Energy Services as three of his favorites in the Canadian energy space right now.

* Canadian real estate, and why there is a big valuation gap between public and private commercial real estate.

* Why retail, multifamily, and industrial sectors look attractive right now.

* Why Dream Residential, H&R REIT, and Nexus Industrial are three of his favorites in the Canadian real estate sector.

* Book Recommendation: The Frackers by Gregory Zuckerman.

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Yesterday I had Doug Terreson on the podcast to talk about energy as well as his book, Can’t Deny It. It was a great conversation on what has happened in the energy industry over the last 30 years, but we also discussed what he sees coming over the next several years for the sector. Doug had a long career on Wall Street as a renowned oil analyst at Morgan Stanley and Evercore, and is well known for several big calls over the last thirty years. He’s had a hard time retiring and is now on the boards of Phillips 66 $PSX , Third Gear Energy Fund, and Mississippi State University. There are some parallels today to where things were when Doug was making these calls, but if you’re interested in the recent history of the energy sector, you will enjoy this one. You can find Can’t Deny It on Amazon, but you can also find Doug on his website or on Linkedin.

Podcast Summary

* His background and his career on Wall Street as an oil analyst, and why his best calls were not consensus at the time.

* We talk about the book and the stories and setups behind his big calls.

* “The Era of the Super Major”, and the consolidation of the industry that followed, which was the biggest restructuring of the industry since the breakup of Standard Oil.

* “The Golden Age of Refining”, and what he was seeing with the refining sector in 2003 when he made the call.

* His call on oil in 2008, and why he turned bullish on the broad energy sector in November 2020.

* The shift in focus from production growth to capital allocation after the value destruction in the shale boom in the 2010s.

* His thoughts on the Permian, OPEC, continued consolidation, coal, and the overall state of the energy market today.

* Why he likes natural gas and refined products as two subsectors of the energy space over the next several years.

* The focus on data centers and what it means for some of the energy companies moving forward.

* Book Recommendations: Can’t Deny It by Doug Terreson, The Prize by Daniel Yergin, The Quest by Daniel Yergin, and The Quest For Value by Stern Stewart.

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Last week I had John Carter on the podcast to discuss Canadian politics, their upcoming election for Prime Minister, and his thoughts on the long-term future of Canada. We talked about some of the issues plaguing Canada today, and how he sees things playing out. It was also an excuse to talk with him about one of the most interesting Substack posts I have seen in the last year on Academia (linked below). We covered the issues that are already leading to problems, and talked about potential ways to change how universities fund themselves. You can find him below on Substack, but he’s also a very entertaining follow on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The situation with the election for the Canadian Prime Minister later this year between Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre.

* His thoughts on Trudeau’s disastrous reign as Prime Minister.

* Maxime Bernier, and the People’s Party of Canada.

* The Laurentian Elite’s influence on Canadian politics.

* The state of Canadian media.

* Canadian patriotism being defined by the fact that Canadians aren’t American, and the current wave of anti-American sentiment in Canada.

* Alberta as a resource colony for the Eastern part of Canada.

* Canada as an unstable coalition of provinces, and the long-term odds that the country breaks up.

* The state of Academia, and the gap between men and women in universities.

* Why changes in Academia will be faster than expected to the financial state of the average university, declining enrollment, and funding cuts.

* Potential fixes for the academic system regarding student debt and endowments.

* Book Recommendation: Caesar: Life of a Colossus by Adrian Goldsworthy.

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Last week I was able to get Chris MacIntosh on the podcast, and it was a fascinating conversation. We talked about the different cycles that are all converging, the geopolitical situation in Europe, and opportunities in different commodities and South America. He’s very sharp on a bunch of different topics, from history to financial markets and everything in between. If you want to find his website or his Twitter, I have included links below.

Chris’ Twitter

Capitalist Exploits

Podcast Summary

* The current geopolitical situation and the cyclical nature of history.

* How different cycles are all lining up right now, from the debt cycle, the monetary cycle, the commodities cycle, and the 250 year revolutionary cycle.

* The capital rotation on the horizon, and why gold is typically the first mover on that front.

* How the economics in Europe are driving their decision making, why he thinks we will see capital flight out of Europe.

* Capital controls, and how they are masked as regulatory controls in Europe.

* Why he thinks we could be headed for stagflation and why he thinks this commodities cycle will be driven by supply constraints instead of booming demand.

* Energy is typically the best performing asset in stagflationary cycles.

* Why they are fairly heavy in the energy sector, which has some of the cheapest assets on the planet, particularly in the offshore oil services space.

* How shipbuilders are another constraint worth watching.

* The potential supply squeeze setting up in coal, and how coal has been starved of capital for years.

* Why he is bullish on South America, and very bullish on Argentina in particular.

* Avoiding bonds because of where we are in the cycle.

* The formation of geopolitical blocks around the world.

* Why Venezuela as the wild card in South America.

* Trump’s negotiating style, and why Canada is in a weak position.

* Book Recommendation: 180 Degrees: Unlearn The Lies You've Been Taught To Believe by Feargus O’Connor Greenwood.

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Yesterday I had Veles from RogueNews on the podcast, and it was a fascinating conversation. I listened to the whole thing a second time when I was editing it last night, and I am definitely looking forward to another conversation with Veles in the future. We talked about the realignment of the global economic and political system, why gold is flowing into the US again (just like it was before WWII), and some of the important technological trends to watch, from micro nuclear reactors to more efficient chips for artificial intelligence. You can find Veles on RogueNews on Rumble and YouTube.

Podcast Summary

* Zelensky’s disaster in the White House on Friday, and how he is just a puppet for other people behind the scenes.

* The competing factions of power around the world, the future of the EU, and why certain factions in Europe need the war in Ukraine.

* He lays out how a massive amount of money is being ripped out of the US federal government budget right now, and the connection to the urgent selling of real estate in the DC area.

* The importance of gold, and why a large amount of physical gold was moved out of Europe into the US before WWII.

* He lays out the reasons that gold is flowing into the US again today, and why the US is in the driver’s seat with our economy and political system, as the world starts to realign the economic and political system towards a multipolar world.

* Salted gold reserves in China, and why that set off alarms in other countries.

* The gold that is still on ships at the bottom of the ocean, and the disputes between different countries over it.

* What he sees for the US power grid, and why a decentralized grid is an advantage for the US.

* Why artificial intelligence is overhyped, and how power demand at the chip level could be reduced by 90-95% at the chip level by replacing floating point multiplication with integer addition.

* The potential benefits of micro nuclear reactors and the downstream effects that could have on the US grid, and how micro nuclear reactors could benefit Europe.

* Physical versus digital currency, and why he thinks we will eventually see a fully digital dollar.

* Book Recommendations: The Most Dangerous Book In The World: 9/11 As Mass Ritual by S.K. Bain & Lucifer’s Banker by Brad Birkenfeld.

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Last week I was able to have John Polomny back on the podcast for another great conversation. We looked at some of the commodities sectors that both of us find interesting, and some of the opportunities in the market today. We also talked about the current geopolitical landscape and American culture. You can find his Substack below, but he is also a very entertaining follow on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* Energy Return On Energy Invested, and how human society has never gone backwards as far as energy density.

* Uranium, and the bombed out sentiment across the sector.

* The opportunities in the oil & gas sector, including offshore oil services and Canadian oil sands.

* Why he likes Glencore for his exposure to the coal sector.

* His thoughts on the precious metals miners, the agricultural sector, and shipping.

* The geopolitical landscape, from Trump and the Monroe Doctrine, to the return of realpolitik.

* Immigration, the changing culture of the US, and what it means to be an American.

* Book Recommendation: Santa Monica Partners Letters to Partners 1982-2021: 40 Years of Pink Sheet Investing by Lawrence Goldstein and Joseph Raymond.

* He also recommended the Horizon Kinetics quarterly updates, which are definitely a must read.

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After I recorded recently with Vince Lanci for a podcast on gold and the LBMA, we got to chatting about oil and I told him about Sable Offshore $SOC (I know that is probably shocking to some of you). He invited me to one of his Sunday conversations with some of his subscribers to discuss the situation, and where things stand today. If you guys need a fix on Sable or want to hear some of Vince’s questions, and my thoughts on Sable and oil in general, including some talk on the geopolitical side, feel free to watch.

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Last week I had Matt Warder back on the podcast to give us an update on the coal sector. We talked about why it might be tough sledding in 2025 for coal stocks, the different companies in the US and Australia, and more. You can find Matt on Twitter and on Substack below. He is must follow for any investor interested in the coal sector.

Podcast Summary

* His broad outlook for thermal and metallurgical coal, the impact of LNG on thermal, and why he thinks 2025 is going to be the cycle trough for met coal.

* The impact of potential tariffs on the coal sector.

* His outlook for China, and the uncertainty on how a potential trade war could play out.

* His view on some of the stocks in the sector, and the potential for further M&A.

* We also looked briefly at some of the Australian stocks in the coal sector.

* The bankruptcies of smaller players here in the US and what might happen to Corsa Coal after they filed for bankruptcy.

* Where he’s looking for opportunities outside of the coal sector.

* The potential for a coal powered data center in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming.

* Book Recommendation: Buried Treasure by Otto Scott.

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On Friday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast to discuss what has been going on recently in the Gold market. We discussed what is going with the LBMA, COMEX, and the gold flowing into the United States. We also briefly covered his thoughts on silver, platinum, and oil. It was a fun conversation and should help listeners get a handle on what is going on with gold right now. You should all follow his Substack for his precious metals updates, but you can also find him on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The LBMA (London Bullion Market Association), COMEX, and the EFP (the exchange of futures for physical), and why gold is moving to the US.

* Why the LBMA is in the process of slowly dying.

* How tariffs would impact precious metals, and why the likelihood of tariffs on metals is extremely low (but not zero).

* The so-called conspiracy theories around the LBMA.

* The potential structure of a sovereign wealth fund.

* Why he’s bullish on silver longer term, and why he thinks gold and silver might be decoupling.

* Why platinum won’t be far behind if silver starts to run.

* What he is watching with oil, and how it interacts with Trump’s geopolitical policy and tariffs.

* Book Recommendation: The Prize by Daniel Yergin

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Yesterday I had Mike Farris come back on the podcast to discuss a wide variety of topics, from geopolitics, Trump 2.0, to the health of America, and the pros and cons of podcasting and content creation. He let me rant a bit a bit on some of the things going on today, but it was a fun conversation. You can find him on Twitter, YouTube, and all of the main podcast apps.

Podcast Summary

* His skepticism on the recent news around USAID, DOGE, and Elon Musk.

* The Cabinet confirmations and what their impact might look like.

* The Middle East, Israel, Ukraine, and the likelihood that Trump is able to resolve things.

* Why Turkey is the wildcard in the Middle East.

* The pace that things are moving and how it is hard to stay up to date.

* Potential shifts in the Overton Window and why it might accelerate.

* Lawfare and why he is pessimistic on the way things are going.

* I rant on the state of food and health in America, and how it has deteriorated over the last several decades.

* Ozempic side effects.

* The state of corporate America and DEI.

* The pros and cons of podcasting and content creation.

* Book Recommendation: Gold Warriors by Sterling Seagrave.

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Yesterday I was able to talk with Tommy Deepwater, who has been following offshore oil services for more than a decade, with a focus on deepwater. We talked about some of the recent news from the sector, the trend of consolidation and M&A, and where the offshore cycle sits today. His Twitter is a must follow for his weekly updates on the sector. It was a great follow up to my podcast series on oil, and if you’re interested in offshore oilfield services, specifically deepwater, you will enjoy it.

Podcast Summary

* Noble $NE retiring a couple drillships, and why parts of the stacked fleet will continue to be retired.

* Why higher spec stacked drillships are more likely to be reactivated.

* Why he thinks Transocean $RIG has the highest quality active fleet.

* The Transocean & Seadrill $SDRL M&A rumors, and future consolidation of the sector.

* How the offshore bull cycle has been delayed, the picture for 2025/2026, and where day rates have to go to see new builds.

* His thoughts on jackups, Borr Drilling $BORR , and their asset quality.

* The OSV market, Tidewater $TDW , and how OSVs will benefit from increased activity in the deepwater sector.

* Why he finds FPSOs (Floating Production Storage Offloading units) interesting.

* Namibia, Colombia, and Suriname as potential geographies for new long-term drillship demand.

* Book Recommendation: Chip War by Chris Miller.

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Yesterday I had the pleasure of chatting with Doomberg for part 3 of my podcast series on oil. We bounced around a bunch of different topics, from geopolitics and Trump, to his view on the Permian Basin and OPEC, to other sources of oil supply like the Vaca Muerta in Argentina. It was a great follow up to the first two parts of the series.

Podcast Summary

* The geopolitical big picture, from sanctions to Canadian energy tariffs, and why the US and Canada will probably cut a deal.

* His overall view that energy markets well supplied today.

* Why natural gas pipeline capacity is the bottleneck for Permian oil production in his view.

* His thoughts on the Vaca Muerta in Argentina, and other potential sources of oil supply growth in coming years.

* Why peak cheap oil is a myth, and why the gold to oil ratio will probably continue to go higher.

* Why oil prices going up in dollar terms is more of a reflection of dollar devaluation than oil getting scarcer or more expensive.

* His thoughts on the long term future of OPEC, US refining capacity, and LNG.

* Europe and Germany’s energy policy when it comes to hydrocarbons versus renewables.

* What he would look for to potentially get more bullish on oil prices, from a flush and collapse of OPEC, to geopolitical dislocations (which admittedly would be short-term).

* Which energy subsectors he would focus on for opportunities.

* The impact of AI on energy demand growth.

* His brief thoughts on abiotic oil versus fossil fuels.

* Book Recommendation: The Deep Hot Biosphere by Thomas Gold

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Wilson from HFI Research joined me yesterday for part 2 of my series on oil, and we had a great conversation on a variety of topics. We talked about his outlook for oil and gas in 2025, what he sees for US production and OPEC spare capacity in 2025, and some of the equities that he finds attractive today. You can also find him on Twitter where he posts some of his work on oil and gas.

Podcast Summary

* His general outlook for oil and natural gas in 2025.

* OPEC spare capacity in 2025.

* Why LNG is the main demand driver long term for increased natural gas demand, and why projections for power burn demand might be off.

* His issues with EIA numbers, and how they adjust numbers to try to get an accurate read on US oil production.

* Their projections for US production in 2025, and the gap between their numbers and consensus.

* How the Permian Basin is in the process of peaking, and why he thinks there will be a structural supply deficit for oil by the end of the decade.

* His thoughts on Trump as a wild card, but why his second term will look different for energy than his first term.

* Why a SPR refill could be a big tailwind IF it happens.

* His view on sanctions or tariffs having an impact on oil markets.

* His thoughts on some specific Canadian equities, some of the Permian producers, as well as a special situation they’re watching.

* What he looks for in companies when it comes to buybacks and capital returns.

* Book Recommendations: The Courage To Be Disliked by Ichiro Kishimi and Fumitake Koga & More Money Than God by Sebastian Mallaby.

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Today I’m excited to publish the first part of a podcast series on oil that I will be doing over the next couple weeks. Rob Connors, the author of The Crude Chronicles, joined me for part 1 to give us a historical look at where we are in the cycle today. He also provided a detailed slide deck that we went through, which I included below. If you want to follow him on Twitter, he also shares some of his interesting charts there.

Podcast Summary

* Why he thinks energy could be one of the best (if not the best) performing sector of the S&P 500 over the next decade, and could return 9-10% AFTER inflation.

* The two main drivers for commodities cycles: liquidity or excessive money creation, and declining well productivity.

* The six stages of the oil cycle, and why we are in stage 3 now.

* How the incentive structures have changed for E&P management and what that means moving forward.

* His thoughts on the political changes and why “Drill, baby, drill” won’t have a huge impact.

* Why he thinks the floor for oil is somewhere in the low-60s.

* Oil bull markets typically have three waves, and why offshore oilfield services typically perform best in the third wave.

* His thoughts on the narrative around OPEC spare capacity, and why he is more focused on non-OPEC supply.

* Book Recommendations: Can’t Deny It by Doug Terreson, The Prize by Daniel Yergin, and The Quest For Value by Bennett Stewart.

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Last week I had PauloMacro and Rudy Havenstein on the podcast to discuss financial markets, financial nihilism, and the generational divide. The financial nihilism and generational divide are two big picture topics that I have started to spend more time thinking about in recent weeks. Paulo’s recent post on financial nihilism is why I wanted to record this episode in the first place. If you can make it through Paulo’s opening monologue without wanting to listen to the rest of the podcast, I will be shocked.

Podcast Summary

* A “turducken of market disasters” coming together, with shades of the 1970s inflation and concentration reminiscent of the Nifty 50.

* How income inequality has only gotten worse, and real wages have stagnated for decades.

* The Boomer generation’s responsibility in the increasing wealth inequality.

* We are watching a pessimistic bubble for the first time in history (this is where the nihilism comes from, and is something Dave Collum has talked about as well).

* What if this isn’t the end of max stupid, what if this is just the beginning? We recorded on Friday, before the launch of Trump coin, so Paulo’s question looks prescient.

* The long term impact of entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

* How the passive market has created the kindling for some potential fireworks. No one is sure if 2025 is the year, but I think we were all on the same page that it is a matter of when, not if for passive investing.

* Why Paulo and Rudy are both watching the bond market, and why the move higher in yields might not be over.

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Yesterday I had Dave Collum back on the podcast to discuss his 2024 Year In Review. It’s a must read every year, and goes deep into several different rabbit holes. It’s always entertaining, just like his Twitter. We had a wide ranging conversation on everything going on in the world today, from the LA fires, Trump and geopolitics, to health and financial markets.

Podcast Summary

* The LA fires and what the aftermath might look like.

* The state of the insurance industry and private equity.

* America’s lack of a frontier, a culture of honor, and the return of frontier justice.

* His thoughts on the end of NATO, the EU, and what’s going on in the world.

* The connection between vaccines and autism, and ivermectin and fenbendazole for as a cancer treatment.

* Obesity, Ozempic, poison in the food, and shifts in what is viewed as healthy.

* The false reads from the economic dashboard, from inflation, to jobs, to GDP.

* Bitcoin as the shiny object, quantum computing, and his questions on it being a sustainable asset class.

* The path of creative destruction in technology.

* His views on energy, abiotic oil, and other commodities like platinum and gold.

* The long drawn out correction that he thinks is coming, comparing the concentration in the Mag 7 to the Nifty 50.

* Book Recommendation: The Indispensable Right by Johnathan Turley

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Last week I had Yuri Bezmenov on the podcast to talk about a variety of topics that have had an impact on the US, from the changes in academia, to DEI, and other divides we see here in the US. It was a fun and wide ranging conversation on some of the things that have become more obvious to me in recent years. You can find his Substack below, and you can also find him on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The change in the prestige of a college education, and the change in attitude towards higher education from younger generations.

* The best way to push back against the DEI agenda.

* The divide between different generations, and the different stereotypes of each generation.

* The death of mainstream media.

* The solution to the male/female divide in the West.

* The Make America Healthy Again movement, and the potential for RFK to make changes to the food and medical system.

* Immigration, and the potential for positive changes on that front.

* Book Recommendation: The Man Who Stayed Behind by Sidney Rittenberg.

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Last Friday, I had my first return guest on the podcast, Tom Luongo, back to discuss what is going on in the world after Trump’s recent election. We touched on a wide variety of topics, from the mainstream (or undead) media, to geopolitics and the different competing factions around the world, along with oil and bitcoin. You should all go check out Tom’s newsletter/Patreon at Gold, Goats n’ Guns, and you can also find him on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The waning relevance of the media, especially as the Boomer generation passes on and they lose their audience.

* The importance of the election, Trump’s cabinet picks, and his questions on a couple of the closer Senate races.

* The difference between “Joe” and “Biden”.

* The different generations and their attitudes on the current system through the lens of the Fourth Turning.

* Oil, OPEC, and why we aren’t at peak oil.

* The importance of a Treasury and Fed that have a different focus than they did over the last couple decades.

* Bitcoin increasing in price, leading to an increased supply of stablecoins (like Tether), which leads to increased demand for Treasuries.

* Getting rid of government universal basic income by cutting some of the government jobs that are a drain on taxes and the economy.

* Why he expects capital to keep coming into the United States.

* What he’s focused on for the rest of 2024, and leading into the inauguration.

* The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldridge by Philip K. Dick.

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Yesterday morning I had Erik from Your Weekend Reading on the podcast for a great and wide ranging discussion. We talked about everything from bonds and changing market regimes to inflation and Project Zimbabwe, which ties in with his experience investing in Africa. You can also find him on Twitter here.

Podcast Summary

* We talked about a regime change in the market, and what it might look like for different asset classes over the next several years.

* His thoughts on bonds, debt levels, positioning, and why the yield on the 10 year could go to 6%.

* Why he thinks the Fed jumped the gun by cutting rates.

* The psychology of inflation becoming embedded, and why wage inflation is here to stay.

* His thoughts on gold, central bank buying, the miners, energy, and other commodities.

* How the day to day adoption of Bitcoin over the last decade has been disappointing for bulls, despite his view that it is a good store of value.

* Why he is bullish on natural gas, and why he went from bullish on oil to a more mixed view recently.

* His thoughts on Trump potentially being able to calm things down in Ukraine and/or the Middle East.

* The rapid developments and technology advancements in the Chinese manufacturing economy.

* Why he finds China a very attractive pond to fish in with cheap valuations and bombed out sentiment.

* He also makes a compelling case for the European banks.

* Why Trump 2.0 and tariffs might not be able to make American manufacturing great again.

* Book Recommendations: Antifragile & The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb.

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I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving last week, but I wanted to put out a short video this morning. I got a couple questions on Calumet $CLMT with the DOE loan and dilution, so I wanted to follow up after my recent podcast with Karst Research and Jake LaMotta. It won’t be a full breakdown, so you should watch that first if you’re interested. I also wanted to briefly cover the latest with Sable Offshore $SOC . The Fire Marshal updated their Pathways for Restarting CA-324 and CA-325 website, but it looks like they aren’t going to step in with the whole CCC circus.

Whatever happens, I think we will get some clarity on what path Sable will take in the next couple weeks. I wrapped up by talking briefly about Peabody Energy’s $BTU and their acquisition, and why my attitude towards that one is starting to change. I have been busy pulling double duty at the family business recently, but I do have some good podcast guests lined up for the next couple weeks, so keep an eye out for those. I also have a couple new ideas I have been digging into recently, and I’ll share those when I have done enough research.

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Yesterday I had two guests on the podcast, Karst Research and Dylan (aka Jake LaMotta, aka Raging Bull Capital), to talk about Calumet $CLMT . You should all go check out their Substacks below. You can also find them on Twitter (here and here). It was an interesting conversation on a stock that has several catalysts lined up in the near future. We talked about the DOE loan that is expected to close before year end, the different segments of the business, and more.

Podcast Summary

* We talked about the 30,000 foot view of Calumet, which has transitioned from a busted MLP with no dividend to a C-corp earlier this year.

* The terms of the DOE loan, which was announced in October, and expected to close by year end.

* Why Karst views the DOE loan as a balance sheet event, and the deleveraging and reduction in interest expense that will happen as a result of the loan.

* How Dylan thinks the DOE loan derisks the business for the next couple years.

* What SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) expansion might look like for Calumet.

* I play devil’s advocate questioning the long-term viability of SAF.

* Their thoughts on what a potential monetization event might look like (and its timing), whether it’s an IPO of the Montana Renewables segment, or a sale of one of the other segments.

* If there are any risks to Calumet from the incoming Trump administration.

* Book Recommendation from Dylan: How The World Really Works by Vaclav Smil.

* Book Recommendation from Karst: Throne of Grace by Bob Drury & Tom Clavin.

Disclaimer

All three of us currently have an investment in Calumet. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.

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Yesterday I had Will Tanner from The American Tribune on the podcast to discuss Rhodesia, Ronald Reagan, and the future of America and Britain. You can also find Will and his viral threads on Rhodesia on Twitter. It was an interesting and wide ranging conversation on Rhodesia, its parallels to the current state of the US, and other topics that will certainly give listeners food for thought.

Podcast Summary

* We talked about the history of Rhodesia and how it went from the breadbasket of Africa to killing elephants for food after a drought.

* How sanctions from the US, UK, and the UN led to the end of Rhodesia.

* He talked about their successful propertied voting system (without apartheid like South Africa) that incentivizes the right things from the populace, and only gives a say to those with a stake in the system.

* His view on the Cold War, and why it wasn’t really about a fight between freedom and democracy against communism.

* His thoughts on egalitarianism, disparate impact, and other questionable policies of the West.

* We also talked about Ronald Reagan, and how his policies led to some of the problems we have today with illegal immigration, no fault divorce, and growth of the national debt (and also immunity for vaccine manufacturers).

* The issues with birthright citizenship.

* Private equity strip mining the middle class, and their impact on the healthcare industry.

* His thoughts on the future of the US, and what could be done to fix things here.

* Mass immigration, and how policies could be shifted to encourage self-deportation.

* His thoughts on the state of Britain, and the punitive inheritance taxes.

* Book Recommendation: 1913 by Charles Emmerson.

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On Friday I had Sal Mercogliano on the podcast to talk about all things shipping. His YouTube channel, What’s Going On With Shipping, is a great resource to stay up to date on all of the things that have an impact on the sector. You can also find him on Twitter. We talked about the incoming Trump administration and some of the different shipping sectors.

Podcast Summary

* The potential impact of tariffs from the Trump Administration, particularly the impact on China. We also talked about how tariffs might implemented, and why tariffs scaling in is better than implementing a large tariff all at once.

* Why he’s watching the Cabinet selections to see how it might have an impact on the business environment.

* He discussed why he favors the tanker sector, the potential impact of sanctions against Iran, and how a resolution in Ukraine could change things for tankers.

* Containers, $ZIM , and what might happen if/when the conflict in the Red Sea with the Houthis stops.

* Dry Bulk, and how he views it as a precursor for what’s going on in the economy. We also talked about bauxite growth, and the potential impact of other dry bulk commodities.

* The current state of the shipyards and order books, including longer build times, the impact of changing emissions standards, and scrapping potential.

* LNG, the US permitting export capacity with a new administration, and the issue of LNG competing with pipeline gas.

* China’s outsized impact on the shipbuilding sector. The country builds over half of the world’s ships, with the China State Shipbuilding Corporation accounting for ~20%.

* Book Recommendations: Maritime Economics by Martin Stopford & The Box by Marc Levinson.

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