Kontrarian Korner – Details, episodes & analysis

Wilson from HFI Research joined me yesterday for part 2 of my series on oil, and we had a great conversation on a variety of topics. We talked about his outlook for oil and gas in 2025, what he sees for US production and OPEC spare capacity in 2025, and some of the equities that he finds attractive today. You can also find him on Twitter where he posts some of his work on oil and gas.

Podcast Summary

* His general outlook for oil and natural gas in 2025.

* OPEC spare capacity in 2025.

* Why LNG is the main demand driver long term for increased natural gas demand, and why projections for power burn demand might be off.

* His issues with EIA numbers, and how they adjust numbers to try to get an accurate read on US oil production.

* Their projections for US production in 2025, and the gap between their numbers and consensus.

* How the Permian Basin is in the process of peaking, and why he thinks there will be a structural supply deficit for oil by the end of the decade.

* His thoughts on Trump as a wild card, but why his second term will look different for energy than his first term.

* Why a SPR refill could be a big tailwind IF it happens.

* His view on sanctions or tariffs having an impact on oil markets.

* His thoughts on some specific Canadian equities, some of the Permian producers, as well as a special situation they’re watching.

* What he looks for in companies when it comes to buybacks and capital returns.

* Book Recommendations: The Courage To Be Disliked by Ichiro Kishimi and Fumitake Koga & More Money Than God by Sebastian Mallaby.

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Today I’m excited to publish the first part of a podcast series on oil that I will be doing over the next couple weeks. Rob Connors, the author of The Crude Chronicles, joined me for part 1 to give us a historical look at where we are in the cycle today. He also provided a detailed slide deck that we went through, which I included below. If you want to follow him on Twitter, he also shares some of his interesting charts there.

Podcast Summary

* Why he thinks energy could be one of the best (if not the best) performing sector of the S&P 500 over the next decade, and could return 9-10% AFTER inflation.

* The two main drivers for commodities cycles: liquidity or excessive money creation, and declining well productivity.

* The six stages of the oil cycle, and why we are in stage 3 now.

* How the incentive structures have changed for E&P management and what that means moving forward.

* His thoughts on the political changes and why “Drill, baby, drill” won’t have a huge impact.

* Why he thinks the floor for oil is somewhere in the low-60s.

* Oil bull markets typically have three waves, and why offshore oilfield services typically perform best in the third wave.

* His thoughts on the narrative around OPEC spare capacity, and why he is more focused on non-OPEC supply.

* Book Recommendations: Can’t Deny It by Doug Terreson, The Prize by Daniel Yergin, and The Quest For Value by Bennett Stewart.

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On Friday I had Sal Mercogliano on the podcast to talk about all things shipping. His YouTube channel, What’s Going On With Shipping, is a great resource to stay up to date on all of the things that have an impact on the sector. You can also find him on Twitter. We talked about the incoming Trump administration and some of the different shipping sectors.

Podcast Summary

* The potential impact of tariffs from the Trump Administration, particularly the impact on China. We also talked about how tariffs might implemented, and why tariffs scaling in is better than implementing a large tariff all at once.

* Why he’s watching the Cabinet selections to see how it might have an impact on the business environment.

* He discussed why he favors the tanker sector, the potential impact of sanctions against Iran, and how a resolution in Ukraine could change things for tankers.

* Containers, $ZIM , and what might happen if/when the conflict in the Red Sea with the Houthis stops.

* Dry Bulk, and how he views it as a precursor for what’s going on in the economy. We also talked about bauxite growth, and the potential impact of other dry bulk commodities.

* The current state of the shipyards and order books, including longer build times, the impact of changing emissions standards, and scrapping potential.

* LNG, the US permitting export capacity with a new administration, and the issue of LNG competing with pipeline gas.

* China’s outsized impact on the shipbuilding sector. The country builds over half of the world’s ships, with the China State Shipbuilding Corporation accounting for ~20%.

* Book Recommendations: Maritime Economics by Martin Stopford & The Box by Marc Levinson.

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My guest on today’s podcast is E.M. Burlingame, a former Green Beret with wide variety of career experiences in different parts of the financial world. I first heard him on The Coffee And A Mike Podcast, but we had a great discussion on the results of the Presidential Election and everything else that is going on in the world right now. You can also find him on Twitter, or his books on Amazon.

Podcast Summary

* The results of the Presidential Election, and what might happen as Trump transitions into office.

* How Europe is dying, and his thoughts on the European Union.

* The different factions of power (the mob state, the Praetorian system) and the princes/aristocrats fighting behind the scenes.

* Why some of the European factions are pushing for escalation in Ukraine and the Middle East.

* The contrast of the land powers in Eurasia (China, Russia, and Iran), and the sea powers (US and the West).

* Student loan forgiveness, and the fall of the academic system in the US.

* The importance of quality collateral in the current financial system.

* Real estate speculation and immigration’s impact on the real estate market.

* Market dynamics around passive investing and high frequency trading.

* The multiple financial rug pulls of the different generations here in the US.

* What he’s watching for the Trump presidency and beyond.

* The aristocracy turning into a noble class, and why we are the early days of a new feudal system.

* Book Recommendation (His Book): The Eternal War by EM Burlingame.

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Yesterday I had Peter R. Quiñones on the podcast to discuss the upcoming Presidential Election, geopolitical events in the Middle East and Ukraine, and our occupied government. You should all go check out Pete’s podcast and his Twitter. He’s a very entertaining follow, and his frequent podcasts are one of the reasons I stayed sane during the COVID lockdowns a couple years ago.

Podcast Summary

* The predicament that the Regime has with letting Trump become President.

* Why he thinks Trump will win, and why the election won’t be called on election night.

* Which swing states might have issues with the vote.

* The potential for lawfare or another assassination attempt before inauguration day.

* Jeff Bezos and some of the recent developments at the Washington Post

* His thoughts on Elon Musk’s influence, and how the Senate and House results might impact things.

* The impact of potential deportations on things like real estate, wages, and cost of living.

* Israeli influence on US politics, and the occupied state of the US federal government.

* His thoughts on what is going on in the Middle East and Ukraine.

* Why the US won’t become a monarchy until the managerial state has been abolished.

* Federalism and the importance of local government, specifically the sheriff.

* His thoughts on eliminating the income tax for tariffs, and why you would need to deregulate in a big way to make tariffs work.

* Book Recommendation: Race War In High School by Harold Saltzman (go listen to Pete’s full book reading on this one), and Imperium by Francis Parker Yockey (also recommended by Stormy Waters).

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Once you realize it’s all nonsense then it all makes sense.

A couple days ago, I had fellow Substack author Le Shrub on the podcast. He writes over at Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator, and if you don’t already follow him, you should. He’s clearly the most talented trader in the plant kingdom, but we had a great conversation on different commodities, the market, and several stocks of interest. He’s also a very entertaining follow on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* His preferred way to get exposure to oil, and what it takes for geopolitical risk to get priced into oil markets.

* The Trump trades, and how a Trump win might be worse for deficits, bonds, and the dollar.

* Why platinum is his preferred precious metal inflation hedge, Costco’s $COST (yes, that Costco) potential impact on a platinum bull market, and how platinum is trading at the widest discount to gold in history.

* His thoughts on several coal stocks, including Peabody Energy $BTU and Warrior Met Coal $HCC , and the outlook for metallurgical vs. thermal coal.

* Why tin is one of his favorite under the radar opportunities in the commodities space.

* His thoughts on broader markets, what he’s looking for to get bearish, and why investors should keep an eye on China.

* Book Recommendation: The Gambler by Fyodor Dostoevsky.

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Yesterday I had Larry Johnson on the podcast to talk about all of the things going on around the world. He’s former CIA and a very sharp geopolitical analyst. We talked about what is going on in the Middle East with Israel and Iran, Ukraine, and how the US Presidential election might play out. You can find him at SONAR21, where he breaks down current events here in the US and abroad.

Podcast Summary

* We talk about Israel and the multiple fronts that have been in the news as of late.

* The impact of propaganda in the US on older generations and their view of Israel, with the movie Exodus as one example.

* How younger generations have a very different view of Israel in light of recent events.

* How Israel started the conflict with Iran (attacking their consulate), and how Iran might retaliate if Israel targets oil, nuclear, or military targets.

* His thoughts on whether or not Iran has nukes, and the recent potential underground nuclear test in Iran.

* Will the US get more involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran?

* The various problems facing Ukraine in their fight against Russia.

* Drone warfare, and developments of new capabilities being developed and used in the Ukrainian theater.

* Why he thinks Trump will win in the upcoming election.

* The shifting media narrative machine and how SNL is a warning indicator for Kamala and her chances.

* Immigration, gaslighting, and what might happen with immigration if Kamala is installed.

* Book Recommendations: America’s Last War & Losing Military Supremacy by Andrei Martyanov.

* Bonus Movie Recommendation: Exodus.

Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Last week I had Mihail Stoyanov, the author of TheOldEconomy, on the podcast to talk about shipping, commodities, and his investment strategy. With his background in the shipping sector, he was able to give some valuable insights into the different subsectors worth keeping an eye on moving forward. We also talked about commodities, his options strategy, and other opportunities he finds attractive today.

Podcast Summary

* We talked about why he likes Cape Size vessels, and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM in particular.

* His thoughts on the LNG sector, and what makes Dynagas $DLNG and their ICE class vessels attractive (their 6 vessel fleet includes 5 ICE class vessels).

*A Quick Note: I looked this up after the recording, but Dynagas is a Master Limited Partnership, which requires a K-1 tax form here in the US. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

* Why he likes the shipbuilding sector and Seatrium in particular.

* His bullish views on precious metals and the different ways he expresses that view for gold, silver, and PGMs.

* Golar LNG $GLNG , their unique assets, and why he still likes the company.

* His thoughts on the steel sector, Gerdau $GGB , and emerging markets like Brazil.

* We also talked about his options strategy and what he looks for when taking a position.

* Book Recommendation: Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke.

Disclaimer

We talked about several companies that one (or both) of us might have investments in. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.

Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

We had a double dip on the podcast last week, so I’ll be posting this one instead of the Videos of the Week. I had Stormy Waters on the podcast, someone who is a must follow on Twitter. He is anonymous, but he has sold a couple businesses and is now focused on venture capital, private businesses, commodities, and public equities. It was one of those conversations where you forget you’re even recording. The YouTube hall monitors probably wouldn’t like some of the language, so fair warning on that, but this one will be audio only. This episode will have something for everyone, but I guarantee you will learn a thing or two.

“Commodity prices have been artificially suppressed for the better part of seventy years. We’re talking about a much larger correction now aren’t we?

We’re looking at a once in 150 year commodity supercycle.”

Podcast Summary

* The manipulation in oil markets and European sovereign debt markets, which are increasing in frequency and size.

* Why he thinks oil is capped not because of the upcoming Presidential election, but because of the inflation that Europe would feel if oil goes higher.

* The different types of dollars, and why he’s short the Euro and the Pound.

* How the US lifted other countries out of poverty over the last several decades.

* The situation in Israel and the rift between Netanyahu and Trump, and why Netanyahu will look to expand the war in Iran and/or Lebanon. This was recorded on 10/26, so that call looks pretty good in light of recent events in Lebanon.

* Why he’s bullish on commodities across the board. We talked about some of his picks in uranium, natural gas, steel, and gold miners.

* Why he thinks the France’s sovereign debt market will be the first domino in Europe to kick things off for a sovereign debt collapse.

* The impact of the so-called Robber Barons (aka the great American men of that era), the pursuit of the good, true, and beautiful, and the noblesse oblige that is missing from today’s billionaire class.

* The state of the bullion market, the LBMA, and JP Morgan’s influence on bullion.

* How Eurodollars are used to suppress commodity prices bought from other countries, and then finished goods are sold to those same countries.

* What led to the decline of the birth rate in developed nations (feminism, women’s liberation, and women in the work force), and how to fix it.

* Book Recommendations: The House of Morgan by Ron Chernow; Imperium by Francis Parker Yockey; Men Among The Ruins by Julius Evola.

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I wanted to ramble on some of my thoughts on three situations that I’m paying the most attention to right now, and why I have been adding to Sable Offshore $SOC and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM . I also talk about Calumet $CLMT and what I’m watching there between now and mid-October. I’ll be writing part 2 today, which will focus on the rest the portfolio, different commodities, and sectors I have focused on over the last year and change. I’ll also write a bit about my thoughts on recent trades, and it should be out tomorrow morning.

Portfolio Weights