IBF On Demand – Details, episodes & analysis

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here httpbit.lybusiness-forecasting 

This is my response to my previous episode A Demand Planning Manifesto for the AI Era. If that episode was the warning, this one is the way forward. Yes, AI is being misused, but it’s also incredibly powerful when applied the right way. In this episode, I move from rant to roadmap, sharing practical tips, best practices, and mindset shifts to help you integrate AI into your planning process responsibly. How to use AI to challenge your own thinking, not just validate it. How to stay curious, critical, and in control in the age of generative tools. The future isn’t human vs. machine. It’s smarter humans with smarter tools. Let’s make sure we’re building that future the right way.

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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here httpbit.lybusiness-forecasting 

In this bold episode, I deliver a powerful warning that every planner, forecaster, and supply chain professional needs to hear. This isn’t anti-AI. But there are things we are doing wrong and the ugly side of AI misuse every day. We’ve glamorized LLMs, prompt engineering, and automated insights, yet many are unknowingly trading clarity for convenience, and intelligence for illusion. What you think is making you faster and sound smarter is exposing you and maybe making things worse.

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To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Everyone's talking about AI—but what does it really mean for demand and supply planners? In this must-watch episode, I sit down with Jess Lee, an amazing data scientist from Microsoft, to break down the most common AI buzzwords in a way anyone can understand. We dive into the real-world applications already being used in forecasting and planning—and what you need to know to stay ahead.

From generative models to predictive analytics, Jess helps separate the hype from the reality. If you're in demand planning, supply planning, or S&OP, this is your roadmap to understanding the AI that's shaping the future of our field.

 Subscribe and watch now—because understanding AI isn't optional anymore

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand, sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to S&OP here: https://bit.ly/improving-sop-performance

See how IBF's S&OP assessments help your company get started in S&OP or improve existing processes with industry-leading bench-marking and recommendations: https://bit.ly/3d58dMT

What exactly are the new 5 steps in S&OP for 2020? I interview demand planning guru and self-proclaimed S&OP nerd Pat Bower. Sr. Director Global Supply Chain Planning & Customer Service at Combe Inc. We discuss what best in class S&OP looks like, what process steps you need and how to get started with your S&OP process.

04:00 Special guest Pat Bower, self-proclaimed S&OP nerd and demand planning leader
05:35 How many steps we need in an S&OP process
10:16 Is the traditional 5 step process from the 1990's still viable?
12:20 Best practices for data gathering and the Product Review
14:40 Why SKUs are growing and inventory turns look unusual compared to the past
16:40 What needs to lie within S&OP and what lies outside it?
23:40 Looping S&OP back to feed functional and operational systems
25:10 Newcomers! Start with demand then move to supply, and don't try to do all steps at once
28:05 Three golden rules to remember about S&OP
33:50 How IBF's S&OP and assessments get your company on the path to S&OP success

Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

SHOW LESS

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to S&OP here: https://bit.ly/improving-sop-performance

Right now nearly half of companies have abandoned S&OP and moved to S&OE (Sales & Operations Execution) to help manage the current demand disruptions. But is it a good idea, and what does a good S&OE process look like? I invited S&OP expert Jeff Baker to reveal best practices and how S&OP and S&OE can work together to both "firefight" the short term demand volatility while managing the longer term strategy.

02:58 46% of companies are on a weekly S&OP cycle. Is that a good idea?
05:11 S&OP expert Jeff Baker explains what S&OE is
09:24 Differences between S&OP & S&OE
10:40 What does a weekly S&OP process look like?
12:54 What are the inputs into the S&OE meeting?
18:15 Point of Sale data for demand sensing
19:49 Time fences and lead time to set your S&OP meeting cadence
21:06 Overview of S&OE
21:40 Should you choose either S&OP or S&OE or have both?
25:20 Should you start with S&OP or S&OE?
28:27 Why S&OP fails
29:05 The power of communication, collaboration and transparency during times of difficulty

Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand episode 10 sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: https://bit.ly/forecast-modeling

Become an IBF member here: https://bit.ly/ibf-membership

I get on my soap box and explain why that statement is wrong and how you can, in fact, be 100% right. I also discuss why moving away from just a point forecast to forecast ranges (and getting comfortable with uncertainty) provides so much more value to decision makers. By changing our mindset, we can reveal the real value lying in variability. After all, our role is not to be precise, but to provide useful insights. 

02:00 IBF membership - the demand planning club that helps your career
03:15 Why saying "forecasts are always wrong" harms us and our companies
05:28 Your job is not about numbers, but about insights
08:25 Getting comfortable with ambiguity 
10:10  Becoming probabilistic thinkers - forecasting ranges vs. single numbers
14:14 Measuring forecast error and my favorite KPI
15:18 The valuable information lying in uncertainty and variability that decision makers need to know
21:15 Providing the right forecast range with cones of uncertainty 
23:05 Coefficient of Variation (CoV) and Demand Variation Index (DVI)
27:18 Using the right KPIs to measure the full spectrum of uncertainty
30:18 The goal is not to be precise but to provide useful insights 

Article on eScore, a measurement of probabilistic forecast performance that measures error, range and probability all in one formula: https://demand-planning.com/2018/08/16/introducing-escore-simplified-mape-for-todays-business/

Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 9 (28.6.20)

Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to demand planning here: https://arkieva.com/software/demand-planning/

Learn about IBF 's world-leading consulting services to build or transform demand planning here: https://bit.ly/3d58dMT

Data Scientists Suck At Demand Planning! Or do they? Can they learn the required skills? Conversely, can demand planners learn new data science skills? I interview author of 'Data Science For Supply Chain Forecast', Nicholas Vandeput, and examine the differences and similarities between data scientists and demand planners, and how we need to learn from each other.

02:12 Forecast accuracy by university degree
04:30 Data scientists make horrible demand planners
06:16 Mindset of data scientists
07:35 Experimenting in data science
12:55 Differences between data scientist and demand planning roles
14:04 Will data scientists do the modeling then hand over to a demand planner?
16:45 Should we get data scientists into demand planning, or do we keep them as separate roles?
17:00 Human judgement, collaboration and data science
20:10 Will data science be part of supply chain or will demand planning be a data science function?
20:25 The value if an independent analytics function
25:48 The importance of knowing new models and techniques 
29:13 Demand planners need to adapt
34:50 IBF maturity assessments to establish forecasting and analytics functions
35:19 The ultimate goal of a centralized planning and data scientist function 

Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 8 (13.6.20) 

Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to demand planning here: https://bit.ly/demand-planning-solution

Learn about IBF 's world-leading cooperate consulting services to build or transform demand planning here: https://bit.ly/3d58dMT

Here I talk about demand planning as career and what it can do you for you. The role of demand planner is always important, but especially now as companies rely on the visibility and planning to survive. That means demand planners and forecast analysts are highly paid professionals. If you're the right person for this role, then you're set for a very rewarding career. But what skills do you need?

07:10 CEOs reporting forecasting as key priority 
08:00 Demand planning is no longer a supply chain function
08:45 Demand planning salaries
11:30 What skills do you need to be a demand planner?
13:00 Passion trumps knowledge when it comes to succeeding
17:00 Resources to learn about the field
21:10 Creating a career map
24:25 The best degrees for demand planning
26:00 Getting certified to build your career
27:04 Developing confidence 
30:40 IBF jobs board


Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

07:28 What supply planners do
10:00 The central plan and changing culture
13:25 One number forecasts vs. one set of assumptions
18:23 Time horizons in supply planning
21:21 Supply planning lead times and frozen zones
27:00 Understanding the fundamentals of the planning process
30:48 Recommendations to build bridges with supply planning

Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF on Demand Episode 6 (19.5.20)

Sponsored by Arkieva, your one plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's approach to demand planning here: https://bit.ly/demand-management-reso...

Here I discuss Forecast Value Added (FVA) with special guest Sara Park, Vice President, Exec S&OP, Forecasting COE and Supply Chain Planning at The Coca-Cola Company. We discuss how to use FVA to determine which forecasting models, inputs, or activities are either adding value or are actually making it worse. This technique can be game-changer for your forecast accuracy.

08:00 Collaborating with other functions to get the inputs that are either helping or hurting
12:15 Knowing which functions help or hurt forecast accuracy
14:55 FVA at the item level
16:00 Getting started with FVA
17:28  FVA for mature organizations
19:19  What's a good FVA percentage?
22:50 Why FVA is better than MPE and MAPE
26:54 5 best practices when using FVA

Useful article on FVA: https://demand-planning.com/2018/02/1...

Find out more about IBF at www.ibf.org and www.demand-planning.com
Find out about Arkieva at www.arkieva.com

Support the show

To sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org