In this week’s Macro Mondays, James Brodie is joined by James Todd and Will Cunliffe, as they dive into the latest macro shifts shaking global markets.

Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” has injected fresh volatility, lifting gold and equities while raising major concerns around inflation, fiscal credibility, and the Federal Reserve’s next move.

At the same time, US layoffs are accelerating, consumer sentiment has plunged to its second-lowest reading ever, and job openings have collapsed - signalling clear labour-market softness. AI stocks remain under pressure as Michael Burry places heavy short positions, triggering sharp corrections across NVIDIA, Palantir, Meta and other Magnificent 7 names.

Meanwhile, structural imbalances deepen across global markets. AI data centres are driving unprecedented electricity demand, commercial real estate delinquencies are spiking, and US yields fluctuate as traders weigh recession risks versus stimulus-driven inflation. Bitcoin hovers around the critical $100k level as whale liquidation continues and its long-standing correlation with the NASDAQ breaks down.

Key highlights include:
✅ Trump’s $2,000 “tariff dividend” sparks inflation fears
✅ US layoffs spike; consumer confidence hits second-lowest on record
✅ AI stocks sell off sharply as hedge funds rebuild shorts
✅ NASDAQ volatility rises; rotation out of crowded tech trades
✅ AI data centres drive record power demand and grid strain
✅ Commercial real estate delinquencies hit all-time highs
✅ Brent crude drifts lower; refinery outages and sanctions support products
✅ Bitcoin tests key support at $100,000 amid whale selling
✅ Bond markets remain directionless as traders await Fed clarity

📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – UK Retail Sales, UK Employment Data, German ZEW
📅 Wednesday – German Inflation, OPEC Monthly Report
📅 Thursday – UK GDP, UK Industrial Production, Australian Employment
📅 Friday – French Inflation, US PPI

🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 10th of November, 2025 at 12:30 PM BST.

📖Learn directly from James Brodie at Flux Institute: https://fluxinstitute.flux.live/store

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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

What really built modern oil markets- genius traders, clever tech, or a tight-knit community willing to reinvent the rules? In this wide-ranging conversation, Colin Bryce, co-author of The Rivers of Money: Social and Economic History of Modern Oil Trading, pulls back the curtain on the people, places, and decisions that shaped Brent, birthed ICE, and turned a niche business into a global engine of liquidity. 

From Morgan Stanley’s early experiments and Enron Online’s single-dealer shock, to the Platts–ICE symbiosis and today’s entrenched market infrastructure, Bryce traces how innovation happens, and why it’s harder now. He argues trading has evolved from a solo craft to a team sport, and warns that “speed” adds little social value, and makes the case for client-centric liquidity and real-world relationships in an age obsessed with algorithms. Greg and Colin also look east—China, India, Dubai—and ask whether the next reinvention will come from new centres of gravity or from rebuilding community in the West.

Guest: Colin Bryce
Book: The Rivers of Money: Social and Economic History of Modern Oil Trading

In this week’s Macro Mondays, James Todd is joined by Spyridon Kokas and Mita Chaturvedi to dissect a turbulent week in markets. President Trump has unveiled plans for sweeping new tariffs, including a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical imports, just as Washington stares down another potential government shutdown at the October 1st deadline. The Dollar continues to weaken, with Treasury yields sliding as faith in U.S. data erodes and the Fed faces pressure to accelerate rate cuts. Gold and silver both powered to record highs on surging ETF demand, while the Dollar-Yen teeters as the Bank of Japan signals a hawkish tilt. Brent struggles to hold above $70/bbl amid Russian supply hits and a surprise surge in Indonesian exports to China. In equities, Boeing rebounds on a huge Turkish Airlines order, even as the S&P 500 consolidates after recent losses. With non-farm payrolls and critical inflation prints due this week, markets are bracing for another bout of volatility.

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Key highlights include:

✅  President Trump imposes new tariff

✅ Looming threat of a US government shutdown

✅ US labour market data on watch this week

✅ USD weakens

✅ Gold makes new all-time highs

✅ S&P 500 recovers from a 3-day decline

📊 Key data releases this week:

📅 Monday – Euro Area Economic Sentiment, Spain Harmonised Inflation

📅 Tuesday – Japan Retail Sales, China NBS and RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, German Harmonised Inflation, France, Italy and Germany Harmonised Inflation, German Unemployment Rate, US JOLTs

📅 Wednesday – US ISM Manufacturing PMI

📅 Thursday – Challenger Job Cuts, US Jobless Claims

📅 Friday – Euro Area PPI, US Non-Farm Payrolls, US ISM Services PMI

🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 29th September, 2025 at 11AM BST.

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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Live from Chongqing, China! Jorge dives into the latest oil market recovery as prices edge towards $75. He breaks down the Top 10 Reasons Why Markets Have Turned Back, highlighting key global trends and insights. From China’s increased quotas and state company purchases to Saudi Arabia’s strategic price cuts and the UAE’s surprising production cuts, Jorge explores the driving forces behind this market shift.
 
He also touch on China’s economic rebound, Europe’s rate cuts fuelling crude demand, and the evolving sentiment around global energy policies. Plus, find out why changes in Germany and France’s political landscapes might play a role in shaping future markets.

This episode aired live at 12:30pm UK Time. James Brodie and James Todd look at the previous weeks Macro events and to the week ahead.
 
In US data, inflation is trending higher, pushing both yields and the dollar higher, and this is a definite warning signal for 2025. Job postings are continuing to fall, but small business sentiment is surging leading up to Trump's inauguration. Equity investors are looking the most bullish ever, as Nasdaq reaches new all-time highs.
 
In China, yields are trending aggressively lower, not helped by further weakness in house prices and weaker than expected retail sales, but EV sales are surging. In Europe, France has been downgraded by Moody's to Aa3, and UK GDP unexpectedly contracted. UK-European relations will continue to face trade hurdles.
 
Bitcoin is breaking out even higher, touching $106,500. Meanwhile, Brent price remains in a narrow range and silver is looking for support.
 
Key events for the week include:
Tuesday: US retail sales
Wednesday: Federal Reserve meeting (-24bp priced)
Thursday: BOJ (+4bp priced), existing home sales
Friday: PCE inflation data

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm UK Time. James Brodie and James Todd look at the previous weeks Macro events and to the week ahead.
 
This week, we discuss falling global bond yields as both American and Canadian unemployment saw increases, while ISM Services PMI surprisingly fell sharply. Data over the weekend also highlighted continued deflation in China, while Japanese salaries saw a record gain with the BOJ expected to hike on the 19th of December. In Europe, the French political turmoil continues, while German industrial production showed unexpected weakness. Meanwhile the UK data also missed across the board, PMI, retail sales, and business confidence data all came in lower than expectation. We discuss these impacts on the markets highlighting key charts and trends.
 
Bitcoin is seeing volatility around $100,00, and Altcoins are surging. Meanwhile, Brent volatility continues to fall amongst unrest in Syria. James and James also discuss gold and copper prices.
 
Key events for the week include:
Wednesday: U.S. CPI, BOC (-48bp)
Thursday: U.S. PPI, ECB (-27bp), SNB (-36bp)

Manny and James dive into the dynamics of crude oil and refined product markets as the year winds down. They analyse Brent spreads, distillates, and gasoline demand trends, highlighting bearish sentiment for next year balanced by current storage economics. They discuss refinery margins, potential impacts of cold weather on markets, and trading strategies for Brent spreads and gasoline heading into summer. With an eye on OPEC+ actions, freight dynamics, and shifting demand between regions, they weigh the implications of a relatively calm market environment.

In this special mini episode, "The Watchers" (Director, Benchmarks, Jorge Montepeque and Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian) react live to the collapse in Brent flat price as the OPEC+ meeting convenes.

 We've seen a loss of over $2/bbl in the last 24 hours and OPEC+'s delay of barrels returning by 3 months, while some countries continue to exceed their OPEC+ production limits. 

This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 3rd December, 2024 at 10:30am GMT.  In this special edition episode, "The Watchers" (Director, Benchmarks, Jorge Montepeque and Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian) discuss the oil market over the past week.  

Harry and Jorge take a critical look at the dynamics surrounding OPEC+'s upcoming meeting that's been delayed. They unpack the underlying tension and dissent among member states leading up to the meeting, as well as what to expect from the meeting and current challenges facing OPEC+.

Harry and Jorge debate how OPEC+ will act should we enter a trade war in 2025: Will they reduce production, or revert to a market-orientated approach? Finally, they give their energy demand and Brent price forecasts for the rest of the year.

We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. 

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm UK Time as James Brodie and James Todd look at the previous weeks Macro events and to the week ahead.

This week, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high and is trending higher overall. US consumer confidence and US Black Friday online sales hit a highs as well, and stock market optimism has soared. On the other hand, US new home sales fell 17.3% while US homes for sale continued to trend high. US debt looms and the yield suggests a dollar top is near.

We saw mixed Chinese data over the weekend, with record monthly outflows from major Chinese ETFs and bond yield the lowest in decades. Germany October retail sales fell, and the Eurozone November CPI inflation rose 2.3% Y/Y. Brent volatility and gold both fell.

Key events for the week include: 
Monday: ISM manufacturing PMI
Tuesday: JOLTS job opening data
Wednesday: ADP employment data, ISM services, FED's Powell speaks
Thursday: Initial jobless claims data
Friday: November jobs report, consumer confidence

In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Harry, and Will delve into a range of critical topics shaping energy markets and global economics. They begin with the impact of potential tariff escalations in North America, discussing how proposed policies may affect energy prices and trade dynamics, with a focus on U.S. relationships with Canada and Mexico.

The discussion transitions to OPEC’s struggles with production quotas and internal disagreements, as well as the broader implications of supply dynamics and leakage on global oil markets. Insights from Asia reveal intriguing shifts, particularly in China, where corporate bond issuance and strategic energy stockpiles are reshaping the landscape.

We take a closer look at Europe, highlighting alarming trends in industrial decline, employment cuts, and surging debt issuance. The team also explores how these challenges are influencing energy demand and the balance of global production.

Finally, the team analyses Russia’s economic turbulence and China’s surprising economic resilience, offering a comprehensive overview of how geopolitical and macroeconomic factors are intersecting in unpredictable ways.

Connect with The Officials on LinkedIn:

Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/

Will Cunliffe: https://www.linkedin.com/in/will-cunliffe-45899a182/

Harry Tchilinguirian: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tchiling/

This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 26th November, 2024 at 11am GMT. Onyx Research Associates Vincent Wu and Mita Chaturvedi join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss price action and major events in the oil market over the past week. 

Following Trump’s re-election, the oil markets are bracing for potential policy shifts, including proposed tariffs and energy production increases. Harry, Mita, and Vincent explore the price outlook, geopolitical developments from Ukraine to the Middle East, and technical signals hinting at future market moves.

The team also provide an in-depth analysis of the gasoil/diesel market, examining seasonal trends, supply tightness, and price support factors across Europe and Asia. In this week's "Crystal Ball Moment," Mita shares her forecast for Brent as 2024 draws to a close. They also discuss potential market movements with the Thanksgiving holiday coming up at the end of the week.

We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. 

You can also listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Music, or Google Play. 

This week brought a flurry of critical developments, with Scott Bessent named as Treasury Secretary, signaling potential shifts in U.S. fiscal policy. Known for his bond market expertise, Bessent’s appointment caused gold prices to dip and led to fresh buying of bonds with 10-year yields falling 7bp on Monday's open. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $99,500, reflecting growing crypto optimism under the new administration.
 
In economic data, the U.S. saw mixed PMI numbers, with services surging to 57 (est 55) while manufacturing stagnated at 48.8 (est 48.8). Unemployment trends raised concerns, with continuing claims rising to a three-year high. However, U.S. corporate bond spreads hit record lows, pointing to potential bubble risks.
 
European data continues to disappoint, with German and French PMIs remaining weak. The Eurozone 5yr5yr forward inflation swap fell to 2%, sparking discussions of deflationary pressures. Meanwhile, UK retail sales dropped, and CPI rose to 2.3%, stirring market concerns.

Key events for the week include:
Tuesday: Fed minutes
Wednesday: U.S. PCE price index, Q3 GDP, Durable goods orders
Thursday: Eurozone inflation, Canadian GDP, Thanksgiving holiday
Friday: U.S. PMIs, Consumer sentiment, Eurozone services PMI, UK retail sales
Saturday: Chinese manufacturing and services PMI data
#MacroMonday #EconomicAnalysis #ScottBessent #PMIData #Crypto #Bitcoin #TreasurySecretary #GoldPrices #USEconomy #EuropeEconomy #Deflation #Inflation #RateCuts #BondMarket #MarketTrends #OilPrices #FedMinutes #GDP #PMI #ConsumerSentiment #MiddleEastTensions #ChinaData #UKRetailSales #Eurozone

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This week on Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe breaks down the biggest macro market movers:

• US economy falters - July jobs report shows just 73k new jobs, the weakest hiring since COVID, plus a massive 259k downward revision. ISM manufacturing and services PMIs point to stagflation risks.
• Fed rate cut bets surge -  Markets now price -58bp by year-end and -111bp over 12 months; JP Morgan expects three consecutive cuts.
• Trump escalates tariffs -  New 15%–100% levies on Japan, India, and chip imports, plus Nvidia/AMD paying 15% of China sales to the US government.
• Global slowdown signals -  Eurozone PMIs sink, German industrial production falls -1.9%, UK manufacturing contracts, and China’s PPI deflation deepens.
• Equity concentration risk -  S&P 500’s top 10 stocks now make up 40% of market cap; Nvidia alone is 8% of the index, while breadth weakens.
• Commodities in focus –- Gold eyes a $3,430 breakout amid Trump’s Fed nomination; Bitcoin and Ethereum extend rallies; Brent crude slips on weaker Chinese demand.
• Stock spotlights - Palantir’s sky-high PE (620) sparks bubble talk; Tesla breaks higher on strong technicals.

Plus, James, James and Will cover key data ahead: US CPI, OPEC report, UK & German figures, and Chinese retail sales , all with potential to spark volatility in the weeks ahead.

In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Ed, Will, and Mita dive deeper into the evolving world of electric vehicles and how they're affecting the energy markets. In China, data is highlighting surging sales of new EV models and insurance registrations - likely thanks to the rapid advancements in quality and affordability. They also touch on how broader Chinese economic confidence, credit trends, and real estate developments are influencing spending patterns and demand for resources.

The Officials also discuss global geopolitical tensions, including missile developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, recent political maneuvers of Western powers, and the International Criminal Court issuing an arrest warrant for Netanyahu.

Mita analyses U.S. gasoline and diesel inventory trends, exploring how seasonal factors like Thanksgiving travel and tight supply conditions will affect market dynamics. With Thanksgiving coming up next week, we'll see if gasoline demand spikes as expected.

Connect with The Officials on LinkedIn:

Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/

Will Cunliffe: https://www.linkedin.com/in/will-cunliffe-45899a182/

Edward Hayden-Briffett: https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-hayden-briffett/

Mita Chaturvedi: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mita-chaturvedi/

Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Onyx Direct Trader Vicky Chen for a special episode of the CEO's Address. Vicky discusses the experience and learnings she's gained since she joined Onyx seven years ago with no prior direct trading experience.

 As Vicky's been with Onyx, the team has expanded to provide enhanced direct trading services in more languages and in more regions. She and Greg discuss the challenges involved in providing services and market updates to clients 24/5 - and how onyx plans to continue expanding these services. They also discuss the specificities of the Chinese market (Vicky's main focus) and the overall Chinese attitude towards trading.

This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 19th November, 2024 at 1:30pm GMT.

Onyx Research Associate Martha Dowding joins Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss price action in the oil market over the past week. In the two weeks since Trump's election, oil price has seen little movement, while the equity market has seen remarkable change.

While cryptocurrency value has increased off the back of Trump's election, what's to come for the oil market once he's in office remains unclear. From his proposed tariffs to the US' "drill baby drill" production motto, the future of the US - and global - economy remains up in the air. Meanwhile, OPEC+ supply cuts, China's weak macroeconomic data =, and fluctuating geopolitical tensions are playing their roles in relatively stable Brent price.

This week on Trading Corner, Senior Oil Derivatives Trader, James Anderson  discusses key developments in the oil market with Head of Desk, Manny Newman. They dive into post-election market dynamics, refinery margins, and the impact of seasonal turnaround cycles. James shares insights on the Brent vs. Products spreads, China’s influence on global crude prices, and potential shifts in U.S. export dynamics.

Manny and James also tackle the interplay between distillate cracks, freight movements, and broader geopolitical factors, including Iranian exports and OPEC production. As we approach the holiday season, Manny and James explore how low liquidity and key events like Thanksgiving could influence market volatility.

Plus, James and our Manny debate the best trade strategies of the week—short-dated Brent vs. bullish deferred crude spreads. 

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm GMT on Monday, the 18th of November. Tune in Mondays at 12:30pm UK time to watch Macro Mondays live. 
On today's episode, James and Will dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets.
 
Last week, Bitcoin, S&P 500, and NASDAQ hit all-time highs - but whether this rally will continue is unclear thanks to rising yields. Meanwhile, US Dollar strength is causing havoc with EURUSD & USD Yuan making multi-month lows, and causing more distress in EMG with USDINR at all-time highs.
 
CPI and PPI are both rising for the first time since September 2022. Lorie K Logan from the Fed has said that the US Central Bank will most likely need to make more interest rate cuts. Dogecoin spiked following Trump's announcement of the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), co-headed by Elon Musk, it has risen 170% in the last 4 months. Bitcoin is now the 8th-largest asset in the world, just behind Saudi Aramco.
 
We saw mixed Chinese data, strong retail sales but weak industrial production and falling house prices, and OPEC cut their global oil demand growth forecast for the 4th consecutive month. German data continues to look weak, both IFO and ZEW came in below expectations, and UK unemployment has jumped form 4.1% to 4.3%.
 
The team also take a look at the upcoming economic data schedule and the equities market.
 
#macro #macronews #finance #inflation #deflation #Nvidia #stockmarket #stocks #oott #oilandgas #trading #markets #marketanalysis #recession #derivatives #derivativestrading #thefed #housing #housingmarket #gold #china #germany #uk #us #economy #economics #ElonMusk #Trump #Bitcoin #China #Macro #Housing #HousingPrices #crypto #doge #dogecoin

In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Ed, Harinder and Dr. Wu explore the latest trends in global energy dynamics and political shifts, and deep dive into the rapidly changing landscape in China - where electric vehicles (EVs) are taking over, significantly impacting gasoline and diesel demand. They discuss startling stats, the shift to EVs in major Chinese cities, the competitive tech race, and the broader economic implications - including substantial reductions in daily transportation costs. 

The Officials also tackle the dilemma OPEC faces, balancing production cuts amid declining Chinese demand and potential price impacts.

The discussion moves to the geopolitical sphere, dissecting President-elect Trump's cabinet nominations and their implications. They discuss trade tariffs that could disrupt European economies and drive deglobalisation and analyse how these political manoeuvres might influence global oil prices and the economic strategies shaping the energy markets.

The Officials also explore what a strengthened dollar means for investors, speculate on Musk's influence, and examine how upcoming policies could affect both the U.S. economy and international relations. 

This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 12th November, 2024 at 12pm GMT.

Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi, Martha Dowding, and Vincent Wu join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss the direction of oil prices in the wake of President Donald Trump's election. The team reviews the potential outcomes of a second Trump presidency in relation to his policy proposals and aims to express their implications through trading ideas.

A second Trump presidency can have strong demand or supply repercussions. Vincent will examine the potential for more US crude oil supply and exports and their incidence on the relative pricing of WTI, Brent, and Dubai. Martha will look at how the potential for lighter regulation, particularly regarding renewable fuel mandates, will impact the US gasoline market. Finally, Mita delves into how future US trade policy, with heavy tariffs to be applied to China, can affect naphtha in Asia.

We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. What is your favourite oil Trump trade. You can also listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Music, or Google Play.

Disclaimer:  Any recommendation, prediction, or suggestion as to an investment strategy has been prepared by Onyx Capital Advisory Limited (“Onyx”) in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research (“Research”). This research is directed at, and therefore should only be relied upon by, clients who have professional experience in matters relating to investments. Onyx’s Research is not directed at retail clients or those in a jurisdiction in which this distribution may be restricted by local regulation or law. Onyx’s publications are prepared without taking into account your specific investment objectives and financial situation, therefore before acting on any information, you should consider its appropriateness. Onyx’s Research should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining independent professional advice, including investment, tax and legal advice. 

Onyx’s policy is to only publish Research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair, and not misleading. Any views expressed are those of Onyx’s at the time the Research was prepared. No assurances or guarantees are given as to the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of any such information or any matter contained in Onyx’s Research and such Research may contain statements which are matters of judgement and which are subject to change at any time without notice. Onyx accepts no duty or liability, whatsoever, to any party in respect of its Research. Under no circumstances will Onyx be responsible for any losses incurred (whatever their nature) by its clients resulting directly or indirectly from the use or interpretation of any information contained in its Research. Such Research is solely produced and published by employees of Onyx and based on publicly available information. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Analysts are required to ensure that they have a reasonable basis for their analysis, predictions, and recommendations. Onyx maintains strict regulatory controls to mitigate any conflicts of interest including information barriers and restrictions on the undertaking of personal transactions in financial instruments.

Onyx is registered in England & Wales (company number 11472304) with its registered address at 95 Cromwell Road, Second Floor, London, United Kingdom, SW7 4DL. Onyx is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA no. 822509).

In this episode of Trading Corner Manny Newman and Jonah Van Bourg dive into the aftermath of the recent U.S. presidential election and its implications on the markets. They break down how a potential Trump administration could influence risk assets like equities and bitcoin, with conversations around short-term bullish expectations driven by policy changes. Manny and Jonah look at the energy sector, examining how Trump's approach might affect oil and energy markets and discuss possible shale oil production increases, aggressive tariff strategies, and the geopolitical impacts on Russian and Middle Eastern oil supply.
 
They analyse market reactions and explore futures positioning, touching on key drivers like election day sell-offs followed by afternoon rallies. As traders approach year-end, they talk about risk aversion, the influence of geopolitical risks, and the challenge of trading in a structurally oversupplied oil market.
 
Manny and Jonah also provide contrasting outlooks on oil prices: Manny foresees a downward flush before any potential recovery, while Jonah believes the market has already bottomed out.

This week, market volatility took centre stage, spurred by the perceived inflationary policies under Trump. His election victory led to a steepening yield curve, with 10-year yields surging nearly 19 basis points, and market-based inflation expectations—like 5-year breakevens—also jumped significantly. Equities responded optimistically, with the S&P 500 up 3.3% and the Nasdaq climbing 4.5%, buoyed by hopes of deregulation.

The energy sector’s reaction was mixed; Trump's past policies affecting Iranian exports could signal a return to stricter measures. Renewable energy stocks, however, faced setbacks, with Sunrun notably impacted. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, with Chair Powell hinted at a potential slowdown in further cuts, even as employment remains central to future decisions.

Internationally, the Bank of England reduced its base rate, and euro yields tumbled, driven by safe-haven demand and inflation risks. Simultaneously, China showed signs of economic recovery, with a surprising export surge and positive PMI data. Additionally, Beijing announced a substantial 10 trillion-yuan debt refinancing package, but the measures fell short on the consumer measures markets had hoped for.

James and Will unpack how these global financial shifts impact investors and the broader economic landscape.

Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian,  is joined by Chief Economist at Argus Media, David Fyfe for a special episode of Oil Insights. David brings over 30 years of experience in energy market analysis, from the International Energy Agency (IEA) to Gunvor and now Argus Media, where he delivers deep insights into oil market dynamics, geopolitical risk, and macroeconomic fundamentals.

With the election of Donald J. Trump as the 47th President of the United States, Harry and David explore the potential impacts on the oil market through both economic and geopolitical lenses. From sanctions on Iran and Venezuela to shifting alliances in the Middle East and implications for OPEC+, they delve into what a Trump administration could mean for global oil supplies and prices.

David and Harry discuss the complex web of relationships involving sanctioned nations, including the evolving US-Russia dynamic and how Trump's rapport with Saudi Arabia and Israel might influence geopolitical stability. They also explore the ramifications of Trump's trade policies, especially with China, and the possible effects on global economic growth and oil demand.

On the domestic front, they analyse the prospects for US oil and gas production under Trump’s energy policies and whether we could see a revival of the "drill baby drill" mantra. Finally, Harry and Davis assess the current state of oil market fundamentals as 2024 nears its close, the ongoing debate around oil demand forecasts, and OPEC+'s options in managing supply amid an uncertain market outlook.

#oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives  #economics #Trump #Election #Harris #2024Election

In this episode of Flux Insights, Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian, Quantitative Research Associate Harinder Sandhu, and Research Associate Mita Chaturvedi analyse the latest developments in crude oil and refined product markets - including a sharp drop in Brent prices, CTA positioning reversals, and fresh insights from Onyx's proprietary COT data. With technical pressure building across Brent and gasoil futures, the team highlights key support levels, bearish momentum signals, and what traders should watch heading into mid-August.

They also unpack the impact of recent supply disruptions in Azeri crude on the naphtha market, examine the unwinding of long positions, and spotlight a high-conviction trade idea in DFL. Combining market structure analysis, technical signals, and proprietary trading data, this episode offers a comprehensive view for anyone navigating the oil markets.

This episode was recorded at 9am BST on 6th August, 2025

👉 Onyx Alpha report: https://www.flux.live/dashboards/onyx-alpha/

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Chapters for this episode are:

0:00 Introduction

4:08 Market positioning

10:58 Technically speaking

20:16 COT deep dive 

28:05 High conviction trade idea

32:33 Crystal ball (forecast predictions)

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of The Officials, Jorge dials into the studio from Singapore to join Research Analysts Ed Hayden-Briffett and Will Cunliffe. This week, the team discuss Trump's sweep of the US election - and what this means for the economy, from what we've seen already to what's to come in the next four years. They discuss potential shifts in US green initiatives, tariffs, the budget deficit, and more.

Jorge, Ed, and Will also touch on Germany's declining industrial production and political instability, which is contributing to poor overall European economic data. Additionally, Jorge discusses the rise of electric vehicles in Chinas and the transition away from traditional oil dependency there. 

On this episode of Oil Insights, Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian and Research Associates Martha Dowding and Vincent Wu  cover the potential implications of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election on the oil market, particularly focusing on foreign policy towards sanctioned countries like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, as well as key Middle Eastern allies, like Israel and Saudi Arabia. 

Looking at sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, for Iran, under Harris, the current containment and loose sanctions are likely to continue, allowing Iran to export around 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude. Trump would likely tighten sanctions, potentially reducing Iran's exports, once again,  below 500,000 barrels per day (kb/d). As for Venezuela, limited changes are expected under either administration. However, Trump might be more supportive of oil sector activities, possibly benefiting companies like Chevron operating in Venezuela.

For Russia and Ukraine, Harris is likely to continue the Biden administration’s stance of supporting Ukraine with military aid against Russia. Whilst Trump might be able to broker a solution with Russia, which could possibly lead to the lifting sanctions, allowing more Russian oil to enter global markets.

Harry, Martha and Vincent also discuss U.S. relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia. Whilst both parties support Israel, Trump is seen as having stronger influence over Israel and could broker regional peace talks more effectively.

And as for Saudi Arabia, Trump may have an easier path to re-establish relations and secure increased oil production, whereas Harris may adopt a critical stance.

As for U.S.-China Trade Policy, both candidates hold firm stances on trade with China, but Trump is expected to pursue more aggressive tariffs, which could lead to lower economic growth and thus, weaker global oil demand. 

Finally, Harry, Martha and Vincent discuss domestic oil and gas policy. Trump is likely to reduce regulations, promote energy independence, and encourage oil infrastructure expansion, whilst Harris is expected to focus on energy transition policies, potentially slowing U.S. oil and gas production growth through regulatory constraints.

Overall, the episode suggests that the U.S. presidential outcome will have extensive repercussions for oil supply, international alliances, and the global energy market, with each candidate presenting sharply contrasting strategies.

#oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives #trading #trader #podcast #news #economics #finance #markets #marketanalysis #derivativestrading #geopolitics #brent #brentcrude #opec #opecplus #gasoline #gasprices #oilmarket #macro #macronews #finance #inflation #thefed #china #chineseeconomy #us #economy #economics #Trump #Election #Harris #2024Election

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This episode of Macro Mondays was recorded at 4:30pm GMT on Friday, the 1st of November.

On today's episode, James Todd is joined by Research Analyst Will Cunliffe - as James Brodie is travelling - to dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. They discuss whether we're seeing an unwinding of the "Trump trade" as gold and the S&P 500 opened weaker on Thursday, 31st October. 

We're seeing mixed data out of the US, with a mix of increased consumer confidence and disappointing non-farm payrolls. In the US, corporate spreads are also falling; ICE Bank of America high yield OAS spreads are the smallest they've been since 2005.

Gold saw its worst drop since July, and we're seeing mixed earnings among companies with Amazon and Tesla looking strong but Microsoft looking disappointing. Brent, meanwhile, rallied over Middle East concerns.

In this episode of The Officials, Jorge dials into the studio from Beijing to join Harry, Ed, and Will. The team dive into key market developments over the past week, including movements in the Chinese economy and updates on Chinese demand forecasts. They also explore how people will be trading as we enter US election week - and what the risks are. Finally, they look at geopolitical risk, including the current situation between North Korea and South Korea.

In this episode of Trading Corner, Manny and Jonah analyse recent market trends and trading strategies - from fluctuating geopolitical risk, to upcoming OPEC decisions, an uptick in physical demand, and more. 

Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Matt Aspin, Onyx Graduate Recruitment Lead, for a special episode of the CEO's Address to explore the generational shift in the industry - and within Onyx - as new graduates join.

Matt gives insight into the evolution of the graduate job market, from pre-pandemic to current day. He and Greg discuss what Onyx looks for when hiring graduates, and the unique opportunities Onyx provides - given they fit the rigorous culture and company mission. However, not just one type of person succeeds at Onyx; Matt and Greg analyse what qualities have made employees successful and which qualities Matt looks for in candidates.

In terms of a new generation entering the industry, Greg and Matt give their observations and opinions on "Gen Z" stereotypes in the work force. Given the major technological shifts in recent years, they touch upon the desire for technologically-literate trading candidates and how trading roles will expand in the near future. 

This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 29th October, 2024 at 11am GMT. Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi and Vincent Wu join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss the week that was and the week to come in the oil market. 

In this week's episode, Harry, Mita and Vincent discuss recent disruption in the oil market due to Israel's strike on Iran over the weekend. They analyse how Israel conducted the aerial strike - and what this means for the wider geopolitical situation and its impact on the market.

With the market's focus returning to macroeconomics, the team discuss recent developments concerning the world's largest economies - China and the US, and their implications for oil demand and prices. Mita dives into the product of the week: high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), where the front-month crack recently reached all-time highs. Finally, Mita, Vincent and Harry give their Brent forecasts for the remainder of Q4 and discuss what they'll be looking out for in the coming week.

We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. You can also listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Music, or Google Play. 

Join us LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd for Macro Mondays.

On today's episode, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. Oil prices have seen a significant drop off following Israel's targeted strikes on Iranian defense systems.

The US 30-year mortgage rate is up to 7.25%, marking the housing market’s most unaffordable level since the mid-1980s. This coincides with bonds now offering higher yields than stocks, a rarity not seen in 22 years. 

James and James dive into the complexities of the US election, exploring the potential economic impacts of a "Trump trade" scenario. Betting markets suggest a 62% chance of Trump winning, which could lead to increased tariffs and reduced Fed independence, driving inflation upwards to as much as 9.3% by 2026 (according to projections from the Peterson Institute for International Economics). We'll keep a close eye on these developments as we near election week.

The Eurozone, meanwhile, is facing weak manufacturing and service PMIs - especially in France and Germany. Dovish comments from ECB officials underscore concerns over stagnation in the German economy, with hints at future rate cuts. In Asia, Japan’s ruling party has lost its majority, and the IMF anticipates that the Bank of Japan will gradually raise rates, while China deals with record local debt defaults amid demographic challenges and trade uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs.

The team also take a look at the upcoming economic data schedule and the equities market. 

In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Ed, and Will dive into key market developments affecting energy, commodities, and the broader global economy. They discuss the recent volatility in the Dated Brent benchmark following the inclusion of WTI, and how this shift is creating discrepancies between physical and futures markets. They also explore concerns raised by Saudi officials about oil price trends and the disconnect between different market indicators - highlighting the persistence of volatility.

 The team addresses U.S. politics and the impact of the upcoming election, particularly the potential economic consequences of a Trump victory. Jorge, Ed and Will also discuss the impacts of record-breaking debt levels, surging gold prices, and investor sentiment in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape. Wrapping up, they touch on the challenges faced by refineries, the potential for increased oil exports from China, and what's going on in benchmarking.

In this episode of Oil Insights, Martha Dowding hosts and is joined by fellow Research Associate, Mita Chaturvedi to analyse recent movements in oil prices, with a focus on Brent crude, (trading at $75/bbl at time of recording). Martha and Mita discuss three primary factors influencing prices at the moment: the potential for geopolitical flare-ups, investor positioning based on Commitment of Traders (COT) data, and expectations for a soft landing in the US economy. These factors are shaping market sentiment and driving volatility as the week progresses.

Martha and Mita discuss the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has intensified with missile strikes targeting key locations in Israel. While these incidents have not yet resulted in direct market disruptions, the potential for further escalation, including a possible Israeli strike on Iranian military assets, keeps geopolitical risks on the radar for oil traders. The market is experiencing some volatility, with heightened sensitivity to these developments.

Martha and Mita discuss the ongoing geopolitical tension - particularly the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has intensified with missile strikes targeting key locations in Israel. While these incidents have not yet resulted in direct market disruptions, the potential for further escalation, including the extent of the future Israeli strike on Iran, keeps geopolitical risks on the radar for oil traders. The market is experiencing some volatility, with heightened sensitivity to these developments.

#Geopolitical #Risk #speculativeshift #Israel #Iran #Military #Oil #oott #oilmarkets 

IMPORTANT: remember, our content is moving away from YouTube and across to Flux.Live as of next week, so make sure to checkout our comprehensive news website for your daily energy news.

In the final episode of the Flux News Show, before we move our shows across to Flux.live, Group CEO Greg Newman, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and Geek in the Seat, Martha Dowding, dive deep into a cooling global oil market where volatility has dried up and traders are left waiting for a catalyst.

They explore technical signals like Bollinger Band pinches, why Brent keeps hitting resistance at $70/bbl, and how options and volumes are painting a muted picture. Plus, a deep look at EU-US energy trade deals, refinery impacts from China to the North Sea, and the surprising fallout from a glut of high-sulphur fuel in Asia.

 Whether you're tracking cracks, spreads, or the macro grind, this one’s for you.

Topics include:

• Why volatility is collapsing across energy markets
• Brent/Dubai spread moves and what they signal
• US LNG expansion and EU energy security plays
• The reshuffling of refinery flows and trade arbitrage
• Total’s Q2 earnings slump and the underestimated power of trading desks
• Why Japan’s power futures surge matters, and who’s cashing in

 Please note, this episode was recorded at 9am BST on 29th July, 2025.

Chapters for this episode are:
0:28 Introduction
1:29  Temperature Gauge: Your Pulse on the Market 
7:00 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?
15:11 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown
21:13 Macro Mayhem: Macro Market News
40:11 Crack Spread Chronicles: Refinery Margins
41:34 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!
43:54 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trading Losses
51:47 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis 

👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/ 

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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

On today's episode, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. The U.S. housing market faces steep challenges as mortgage applications drop by 17%, and the 30-year mortgage rate hits 7.25% - the highest since July. Across the Atlantic, UK house prices show slower growth at 0.3% month-on-month.
 
They also cover key updates from the Federal Reserve, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasising that rate cuts are not imminent despite a strong labour market and declining inflation.
 
In China, the government moves to double its loans for unfinished properties to $562 billion in efforts to stabilise the housing sector, while liquidity measures and interbank rates signal ongoing stress in the financial system. With China’s credit growth slowing, they explore what this means for global investors.
 
As the U.S. election draws closer, they examine Trump’s growing lead in prediction markets and discuss the impact on the financial landscape as well as Elon Musk's controversial support for Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.
 
Finally, tune in for insights into the crypto market as Bitcoin trends higher but faces resistance at $71,800 and $73,800.

In this episode of Oil Insights, host Harry Tchilinguirian, Group Head of Research at Onyx Capital Group, is joined by Onyx Research Associates Vincent Wu and Martha Dowding to discuss how recent geopolitical developments have influenced the oil market. Following the October 1 missile attacks on Israel by Iran, the market is closely monitoring Israel's potential response, with Brent prices fluctuating between $73 and $80 per barrel.

The discussion also covers the latest positioning data, highlighting how money managers are taking cautious positions on Brent. A significant impact was felt when a Washington Post article reported that Israel may target military sites in Iran, not its oil or nuclear infrastructure, suggesting geopolitical uncertainty could keep oil prices volatile.

 In addition, the team explore the macroeconomic headwinds from China’s economic situation and stimulus measures, shedding light on how they may affect oil prices and demand. Harry, Martha and Vincent revisit their previous prediction about Brent's trading range, noting that it remains consistent within the $70s but could shift depending on developments in the Middle East and China.

The team delve into product markets, focusing on Naphtha trends and regional differences in pricing, particularly between Asia and Europe, as they analyse the implications of gasoline demand and petrochemical sector activity.

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome | This week in the oil markets
5:11 Brent Futures
12:47 "Crystal ball moment" - Where will Brent be trading by the end of the year?
20:46 Product of the week: Naphtha
28:00 What we’ll be watching this week | Concluding remarks

Manny and Jonah analyse recent market trends and trading strategies in the oil sector. While the market has been relatively quiet but volatile, with crude oil prices settling in the high 70s per barrel, there is speculation around geopolitical risks - such as potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the impact of increased crude production in Libya. Manny points out that a sell-off in a specific part of the market curve, mainly due to excess supply and hesitant refiners, has led to a bearish outlook. She cautions about the potential bear traps, stressing that traders need to stay cautious when the market is unpredictable.
 
Financial traders are heavily short, anticipating continued bearish fundamentals. Meanwhile, physical traders face an oversupply situation, leading to aggressive selling. The market dynamics show herd mentality, where traders follow each other, causing rapid price movements without substantial trading activity. Jonah compares this scenario to past market behaviours in credit and crypto markets, emphasising that the current range-bound state has pushed momentum traders into uncertain territory. Despite the bearish sentiment, they suggest that a small event - like a refiner stepping in - could cause a swift price rebound, advising caution.

#oott #geoplitcalrisk #oilandgas #Israel #Iran #MiddleEast #Oilmarkets #bearish #beartrap #straightofHormuz 

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This week, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest developments in the global economy, inflation, and U.S. politics. They begin by exploring weak Chinese economic data and discuss how China's worsening deflationary environment and a disappointing stimulus package announcement could impact global markets. 

They break down the latest U.S. inflation figures, with the CPI falling to 2.4% YoY but exceeding expectations. They also analyse insights from the recent FED minutes and comments from Goldman Sachs, discussing the Fed’s outlook on inflation and the rate cut trajectory priced by the OIS and bond markets. 

James Brodie and James Todd address the oil market's high volatility, fuelled by rising Middle East tensions and the Pentagon’s recent announcement of military support for Israel against Iranian threats. 

In the second half of the episode, Onyx Head of Recruitment, Matt Aspin, joins to provide insights into the upcoming U.S. election. Matt delves into the latest polls and betting odds, revealing a tight race, with Harris leading in polls but Trump ahead in betting odds. Matt draws comparisons to the 2016 election and assesses the accuracy of these predictions and what they could mean for the 2024 race. 

For a special episode of Oil Insights, Harry Tchilinguirian, Head of Research at Onyx Capital Group, is joined by Paul Horsnell, Managing Director and Head of Commodity Research at Standard Chartered. Paul is a veteran of oil market analysis, and his views are widely sought-after when it comes to gaining insights into the turbulent world of oil market dynamics. Paul previously occupied similar functions at Barclays, JP Morgan, and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

This episode of Oil Insights focuses on the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following Iranian strikes on Israel on 1 October and why this time, it is different. Harry and Paul explore how these developments have shifted market attention away from oil fundamentals, notably from oil demand growth views this year and next. The episode further explores what options are available to OPEC+ when plotting their next move regarding supply policy and returning barrels to market. Within non-OPEC+ countries, we discuss US oil supply and growth prospects for US shale as the sector has seen a considerable transformation since the days of ‘drill, baby drill’.

We would be remiss if we did not discuss where oil prices are headed in the current volatile environment, so we also peer into the crystal ball to see where Brent might be headed next.

In today's episode of The Officials, Jorge, Harry, Ed and Will discuss geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, involving Israel, Iran, and other regional players, as well as the broader economic landscape and its effects on oil prices.

Jorge recounts his recent travels to the region, noting observations of missile attacks and the vulnerability of Israeli defences. Jorge emphasises the strategic restraint by Israel, likely influenced by the U.S. due to upcoming elections and broader regional stability concerns.

The Officials also discuss the fait of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil supply, could lead to severe economic disruptions impacting not only Middle Eastern countries but also major consumers like China and India. While geopolitical risks are elevating oil prices, without further escalation, prices may stabilise or even drop.

The team also addresses global economic dynamics, such as China's recent monetary policy interventions aimed at stabilising  markets.  

Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Mirko Ivanda, Co-Head of Power & Gas from the Onyx Switzerland office, for a special episode of the CEO’s Address. Together, they explore the intricate dynamics of power trading, focusing on how geopolitics fundamentally shapes supply and demand as well as the end-cost of our household energy bills.
 
Mirko provides an in-depth analysis of the evolution of gas trading in Europe, shedding light on why Europe continues to receive gas from Russia through Ukraine, even amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Greg and Mirko have an open conversation on why gas, unlike oil, faces different sanctions — particularly when originating from Russia — and the implications for Europe's current energy landscape.
 
The discussion emphasizes the critical role of energy consumption in the global economy, with Greg and Mirko delving into how geopolitics and domestic policies are crucial determinants of the final cost reflected in our energy bills.

The week started with weak data, with global manufacturing PMIs contracting for the third straight month in September and with new orders dropping globally at the fastest rate in 11 months. But then services PMIs data surged higher, with the U.S. data at 54.9 (est 51.7) an 8-sigma beat.
 
On Friday, payrolls unexpectedly surged +254K, way above expectations and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Despite being fuelled by 785k government jobs, U.S. yields surged along with the dollar. The 2 year yield had its largest weekly gain in 2 years, and USDJPY its biggest weekly gain in 15 years.
 
European data on the other hand continues to weaken and with Eurozone inflation now at 1.8% (below the ECBs 2% target) expect more aggressive rate cuts in Europe, and a weaker EURUSD. With Middle East tensions rising, and China back from Golden week holidays expect more volatility this week. 

Uncertainty in the middle east has led to a an increase in risk premiums and rises in crude oil prices. As costs of inputs increase the average consumer's struggles will likely increase.
 
Key data releases this week are:
Earnings week
Wednesday- FED minutes, 10-yr bond auction
Thursday - US CPI (est 2.3%), German retail sales
Friday - U.S. PPI, consumer sentiment, UK GDP & IP, Canada payrolls

Jorge is live from Dubai and discussing Iran's attack on Israel with locals. The attack against Israel came as no surprise. Talking to the people in Dubai, they feel Iran was very measured in their actions, going after military assets - not civilians - and the general feeling is that Israel is the wild-card.
 
The question on people's lips right now is: What will happen next? Prior to the attack, the oil market was within touching distance of the upper-60s and, with the news of the attack, rose to the mid-70s. While oil prices had a very strong reaction to the attack, with flat-price Brent rallying all the way up to $76/bbl, after the EIA release, there was a bearish response in price action, but geopolitics are still in the driver's seat, with Brent settling into the mid-70s.
 
Jorge, Will and Edward weigh in on the events in the Middle East, weak economic data and what two of the most important straits to move oil in the world coming under threat of closure, will mean for the oil market.   

This episode was recorded at 4pm BST on 3rd October, 2024.

#macro #macronews #finance #inflation #deflation #stockmarket #stocks #oott #commodities #oilandgas #oil #trading #markets #marketanalysis  #derivatives #derivativestrading #economy #economics #iran #israel #middleeast #middleeastconflict

After the Brent front-month December contract started the day (UK time) testing the $70/bbl handle - seemingly ignoring tension in the Middle East - the market's flipped. The contract is trading above $73/bbl at time of filming after a Tweet led to a headline that an Iran strike on Israel may be imminent. Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian gives his assessment of the situation.

Will we see more headlines like this? Will Brent continue to go up? Time will tell, but one thing's clear: One headline can make all the difference.

In this episode of Macro Mondays, James Todd, Will Cunliffe, and Edward Hayden-Briffett unpack the week that was in global markets. Markets are reacting to sweeping new trade deals - notably a major US-EU agreement involving zero tariffs and massive energy investments - while weak US and Eurozone PMIs, consolidating precious metals, and rising Japanese yields signal caution. Meanwhile, investors are withdrawing from US Treasuries amid political uncertainty, China's economy is under pressure despite upcoming stimulus, and global attention turns to a packed week of critical economic data releases.

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Key highlights include:

✅ US-EU trade deal announced

✅ Weak US and Euro PMIs

✅ Consolidation in precious metals

✅ Rising Japanese yields

✅ Gold remains stuck in range

📊 Key data releases this week:

📅 Monday –  India Industrial Production, Dallas Fed Manufacturing

📅 Tuesday –  Spain GDP, ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, US house prices, JOLTS, CB Consumer Confidence

📅 Wednesday –  US GDP, European GDP, ADP Employment

📅 Thursday – US PCE, European inflation, BoJ decision, China NBS Manufacturing PMI

📅 Friday –  NFPs, Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Spain and Italy HCOB PMI, EA inflation, ISM manufacturing PMI

🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 28th of July, 2025 at 10:30AM BST.

🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights

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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

The market is falling out of bed this morning! 

Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian analyses the current market, with the Brent front-month December contract testing the $70/bbl handle, the market seemingly disregarding tension in the Middle East, participants going net short based on macro developments in China, and more factors.

What direction will Brent go as the day continues? Stay tuned for updates!

Last week, there was a string of aggressive stimulus announced in China. Existing mortgage loan rates cut, 7-day reverse repo rate dropped by 20bps, minimum downpayment requirement for second homes falling to 15%. Simultaneously, China announced it will allow securities firms, funds and insurers to tap PBOC funds to buy stocks. We have seen the CSI 300 stock index rally significantly accordingly... but will this strength last, and is it representative of a strong Chinese economy? The Answer: No! Follow along as we discuss this and more.
 
In Europe we have seen rate cuts in several non Euro nations - whilst HSBC are forecasting continued rate cuts from the ECB. US Data is mixed as we see the reaction to the FED's 50bp cut unfold - mortgage applications have increased & US stocks' strength continues. However employment data indicates that everything is not well.
 
S&P & Gold's momentum remain strong as Gold continues to exceed previous  all-time highs. Brodie and Todd also discuss the ongoing events in the Middle-East & the impact on macroeconomics, EURJPY, Bitcoin's progress, and more.
 
Key data releases this week:

Monday: Chicago PMI, FEDs Powell speaks

Tuesday: U.S. ISM mfg PMI, JOLTS

Wednesday: ADP payrolls

Thursday: ISM services PMI

Friday: U.S. payrolls jobs report

Jorge is back from Asia, and his findings from Singapore, China and Vietnam are stark. Building construction and industrial demand has slowed down significantly. The slow-down in China is serious, and the West is yet to see and understand the enormity of the change. 

The noise on the streets of Shanghai is no longer the sound of motor engines, but just tyres on the road, as around 70% of the cars in the roads in China are now EV's - which has led to a complete down turn in gasoline demand. 

With an already short market hitting $69/bbl last week, we must ask, how much shorter can the market get? Secondly, how will OPEC+ manage supply when the demand growth in Asia just isn't there? 

Director of Benchmarking, Jorge Montepeque, Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian and Research Analysts Will Cunliffe and Edward Hayden-Briffett delve into the future of gasoline demand in Asia and what this means for the market.

A note from Jorge: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VScSEXRwUqQ

The End (Song by The Doors)

This is the end

Beautiful friend

This is the end

My only friend, the end

Of our elaborate plans, the end

Of everything that stands, the end

No safety or surprise, the end

I'll never look into your eyes again