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In this week’s Macro Mondays, James Brodie is joined by James Todd and Will Cunliffe, as they dive into the latest macro shifts shaking global markets.

Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” has injected fresh volatility, lifting gold and equities while raising major concerns around inflation, fiscal credibility, and the Federal Reserve’s next move.

At the same time, US layoffs are accelerating, consumer sentiment has plunged to its second-lowest reading ever, and job openings have collapsed - signalling clear labour-market softness. AI stocks remain under pressure as Michael Burry places heavy short positions, triggering sharp corrections across NVIDIA, Palantir, Meta and other Magnificent 7 names.

Meanwhile, structural imbalances deepen across global markets. AI data centres are driving unprecedented electricity demand, commercial real estate delinquencies are spiking, and US yields fluctuate as traders weigh recession risks versus stimulus-driven inflation. Bitcoin hovers around the critical $100k level as whale liquidation continues and its long-standing correlation with the NASDAQ breaks down.

Key highlights include:
✅ Trump’s $2,000 “tariff dividend” sparks inflation fears
✅ US layoffs spike; consumer confidence hits second-lowest on record
✅ AI stocks sell off sharply as hedge funds rebuild shorts
✅ NASDAQ volatility rises; rotation out of crowded tech trades
✅ AI data centres drive record power demand and grid strain
✅ Commercial real estate delinquencies hit all-time highs
✅ Brent crude drifts lower; refinery outages and sanctions support products
✅ Bitcoin tests key support at $100,000 amid whale selling
✅ Bond markets remain directionless as traders await Fed clarity

📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – UK Retail Sales, UK Employment Data, German ZEW
📅 Wednesday – German Inflation, OPEC Monthly Report
📅 Thursday – UK GDP, UK Industrial Production, Australian Employment
📅 Friday – French Inflation, US PPI

🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 10th of November, 2025 at 12:30 PM BST.

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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

What really built modern oil markets- genius traders, clever tech, or a tight-knit community willing to reinvent the rules? In this wide-ranging conversation, Colin Bryce, co-author of The Rivers of Money: Social and Economic History of Modern Oil Trading, pulls back the curtain on the people, places, and decisions that shaped Brent, birthed ICE, and turned a niche business into a global engine of liquidity. 

From Morgan Stanley’s early experiments and Enron Online’s single-dealer shock, to the Platts–ICE symbiosis and today’s entrenched market infrastructure, Bryce traces how innovation happens, and why it’s harder now. He argues trading has evolved from a solo craft to a team sport, and warns that “speed” adds little social value, and makes the case for client-centric liquidity and real-world relationships in an age obsessed with algorithms. Greg and Colin also look east—China, India, Dubai—and ask whether the next reinvention will come from new centres of gravity or from rebuilding community in the West.

Guest: Colin Bryce
Book: The Rivers of Money: Social and Economic History of Modern Oil Trading

In this week’s Macro Mondays, James Todd is joined by Spyridon Kokas and Mita Chaturvedi to dissect a turbulent week in markets. President Trump has unveiled plans for sweeping new tariffs, including a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical imports, just as Washington stares down another potential government shutdown at the October 1st deadline. The Dollar continues to weaken, with Treasury yields sliding as faith in U.S. data erodes and the Fed faces pressure to accelerate rate cuts. Gold and silver both powered to record highs on surging ETF demand, while the Dollar-Yen teeters as the Bank of Japan signals a hawkish tilt. Brent struggles to hold above $70/bbl amid Russian supply hits and a surprise surge in Indonesian exports to China. In equities, Boeing rebounds on a huge Turkish Airlines order, even as the S&P 500 consolidates after recent losses. With non-farm payrolls and critical inflation prints due this week, markets are bracing for another bout of volatility.

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Key highlights include:

✅  President Trump imposes new tariff

✅ Looming threat of a US government shutdown

✅ US labour market data on watch this week

✅ USD weakens

✅ Gold makes new all-time highs

✅ S&P 500 recovers from a 3-day decline

📊 Key data releases this week:

📅 Monday – Euro Area Economic Sentiment, Spain Harmonised Inflation

📅 Tuesday – Japan Retail Sales, China NBS and RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, German Harmonised Inflation, France, Italy and Germany Harmonised Inflation, German Unemployment Rate, US JOLTs

📅 Wednesday – US ISM Manufacturing PMI

📅 Thursday – Challenger Job Cuts, US Jobless Claims

📅 Friday – Euro Area PPI, US Non-Farm Payrolls, US ISM Services PMI

🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 29th September, 2025 at 11AM BST.

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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Live from Chongqing, China! Jorge dives into the latest oil market recovery as prices edge towards $75. He breaks down the Top 10 Reasons Why Markets Have Turned Back, highlighting key global trends and insights. From China’s increased quotas and state company purchases to Saudi Arabia’s strategic price cuts and the UAE’s surprising production cuts, Jorge explores the driving forces behind this market shift.
 
He also touch on China’s economic rebound, Europe’s rate cuts fuelling crude demand, and the evolving sentiment around global energy policies. Plus, find out why changes in Germany and France’s political landscapes might play a role in shaping future markets.

This episode aired live at 12:30pm UK Time. James Brodie and James Todd look at the previous weeks Macro events and to the week ahead.
 
In US data, inflation is trending higher, pushing both yields and the dollar higher, and this is a definite warning signal for 2025. Job postings are continuing to fall, but small business sentiment is surging leading up to Trump's inauguration. Equity investors are looking the most bullish ever, as Nasdaq reaches new all-time highs.
 
In China, yields are trending aggressively lower, not helped by further weakness in house prices and weaker than expected retail sales, but EV sales are surging. In Europe, France has been downgraded by Moody's to Aa3, and UK GDP unexpectedly contracted. UK-European relations will continue to face trade hurdles.
 
Bitcoin is breaking out even higher, touching $106,500. Meanwhile, Brent price remains in a narrow range and silver is looking for support.
 
Key events for the week include:
Tuesday: US retail sales
Wednesday: Federal Reserve meeting (-24bp priced)
Thursday: BOJ (+4bp priced), existing home sales
Friday: PCE inflation data

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm UK Time. James Brodie and James Todd look at the previous weeks Macro events and to the week ahead.
 
This week, we discuss falling global bond yields as both American and Canadian unemployment saw increases, while ISM Services PMI surprisingly fell sharply. Data over the weekend also highlighted continued deflation in China, while Japanese salaries saw a record gain with the BOJ expected to hike on the 19th of December. In Europe, the French political turmoil continues, while German industrial production showed unexpected weakness. Meanwhile the UK data also missed across the board, PMI, retail sales, and business confidence data all came in lower than expectation. We discuss these impacts on the markets highlighting key charts and trends.
 
Bitcoin is seeing volatility around $100,00, and Altcoins are surging. Meanwhile, Brent volatility continues to fall amongst unrest in Syria. James and James also discuss gold and copper prices.
 
Key events for the week include:
Wednesday: U.S. CPI, BOC (-48bp)
Thursday: U.S. PPI, ECB (-27bp), SNB (-36bp)

Manny and James dive into the dynamics of crude oil and refined product markets as the year winds down. They analyse Brent spreads, distillates, and gasoline demand trends, highlighting bearish sentiment for next year balanced by current storage economics. They discuss refinery margins, potential impacts of cold weather on markets, and trading strategies for Brent spreads and gasoline heading into summer. With an eye on OPEC+ actions, freight dynamics, and shifting demand between regions, they weigh the implications of a relatively calm market environment.

In this special mini episode, "The Watchers" (Director, Benchmarks, Jorge Montepeque and Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian) react live to the collapse in Brent flat price as the OPEC+ meeting convenes.

 We've seen a loss of over $2/bbl in the last 24 hours and OPEC+'s delay of barrels returning by 3 months, while some countries continue to exceed their OPEC+ production limits. 

This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 3rd December, 2024 at 10:30am GMT.  In this special edition episode, "The Watchers" (Director, Benchmarks, Jorge Montepeque and Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian) discuss the oil market over the past week.  

Harry and Jorge take a critical look at the dynamics surrounding OPEC+'s upcoming meeting that's been delayed. They unpack the underlying tension and dissent among member states leading up to the meeting, as well as what to expect from the meeting and current challenges facing OPEC+.

Harry and Jorge debate how OPEC+ will act should we enter a trade war in 2025: Will they reduce production, or revert to a market-orientated approach? Finally, they give their energy demand and Brent price forecasts for the rest of the year.

We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. 

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm UK Time as James Brodie and James Todd look at the previous weeks Macro events and to the week ahead.

This week, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high and is trending higher overall. US consumer confidence and US Black Friday online sales hit a highs as well, and stock market optimism has soared. On the other hand, US new home sales fell 17.3% while US homes for sale continued to trend high. US debt looms and the yield suggests a dollar top is near.

We saw mixed Chinese data over the weekend, with record monthly outflows from major Chinese ETFs and bond yield the lowest in decades. Germany October retail sales fell, and the Eurozone November CPI inflation rose 2.3% Y/Y. Brent volatility and gold both fell.

Key events for the week include: 
Monday: ISM manufacturing PMI
Tuesday: JOLTS job opening data
Wednesday: ADP employment data, ISM services, FED's Powell speaks
Thursday: Initial jobless claims data
Friday: November jobs report, consumer confidence