Explore every episode of the podcast Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

The UFC heads to Perth, Australia this week for a card that has most of us in the States setting a 1AM alarm. Rob breaks down three fights through the model — including a main event featuring a former welterweight champion looking to remind everyone who he is, a veteran grappler on a skid facing a tough road back, and a flyweight matchup where the model finds something the odds aren't reflecting. Plus — big news this week. FightingWithNumbers.com is officially live. The full site is up and running with model data, breakdowns, and more. Go check it out.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and get full written breakdowns every week at FightNumbers.Substack.com.

Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Milestones
00:22 Reviewing Last Week's Predictions
01:52 UFC Perth Preview and Fight Breakdown
08:21 Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg Analysis
12:58 Main Event: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates 17:39 Final Thoughts and Betting Strategies

UFC Vegas 116 is headlined by former bantamweight champion, Aljamain Sterling, set to face one of the hottest fighters in the featherweight division right now in Youssef Zalal. Rob breaks down a few fights on the card through the model — including a co-main where the edge is clear but the price may not be. Sometimes the most disciplined move is knowing when not to bet, and this week the model is making that case loud and clear.

Plus a big update on the Fighting With Numbers web app.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and get full model data and written breakdowns every week at FightNumbers.Substack.com.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC Betting and Model Performance 02:04 UFC Vegas 116 Preview and Key Fights

04:33 Analyzing Norma Dumont vs. Joselyne Edwards 08:29 Main Event Breakdown: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal

09:42 Model Predictions and Betting Strategy

13:46 Web App Announcement and Closing Thoughts

UFC heads to Winnipeg this week for a lean card — but before diving into the fights, Rob pulls back the curtain on how the Fighting With Numbers model actually works. What is xR%? How do the tiers work? What makes something a Live Dog versus a stay-away? All of that gets answered before breaking down the fights on the card, including a main event where the model agrees with the direction but maybe not the price. Short card, one strong play, and a model explainer worth tuning in for whether you're a first-time listener or a longtime follower.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and get full model data and written breakdowns every week at FightNumbers.Substack.com.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC Winnipeg Preview

02:15 Understanding the Model Behind the Predictions

04:46 Analyzing Fighter Metrics and Performance

07:29 Exploring the Tier System for Betting

16:41 Kyler Phillips vs Charles Jourdain

20:47 Evaluating the Main Event: Burns vs. Malott

24:40 Final Thoughts and Betting Strategies

Rob Moreno provides an in-depth analysis of UFC 327, including fight predictions, betting insights, and fighter breakdowns. He shares his modeling process, key fight data, and betting strategies for this weeks event.

Follow Rob on all social media platforms @TheRobbeo

Substack: FightNumbers.Substack.com

Interested in the Web App version of Fighting With Numbers? Feel free to drop me a line and I'd be happy to share!

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Overview of UFC 327

02:34 Gastelum vs Luque

06:34 Tatiana Suarez vs. Lupita Godinez Breakdown

10:59 Cub Swanson's Farewell Fight

14:23 Main Event: Jiri Prochazka vs Carlos Ulberg

19:29 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Rob Moreno discusses the UFC Seattle recap, the controversy around judging, and provides a preview of UFC Vegas 115. He analyzes three upcoming fights, highlighting key statistics and betting insights.

Follow Rob on X:

@TheRobbeo

And hit the substack!

Fight Numbers Substack

First Strike on YT

Fighting With Numbers on YT

Chapters

• 00:00 UFC Seattle Recap and Judging Controversy
• 12:28 Fight Analysis: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabitha Ricci
• 20:28 Fight Analysis: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan

The UFC heads to Seattle this week and the main event has legacy written all over it. Israel Adesanya — former champion, three-fight losing streak — steps in against a hungry Joe Pyfer who smells an opportunity. Rob breaks down four fights through the model, including a co-main event rematch five years in the making between Alexa Grasso and Maycee Barber, a stay-away spot that the model loves but the bankroll won't touch, and a line movement story that flips one fight completely on its head. The numbers don't lie — and this week they're pointing at some underdogs. Let's get into it.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and UFC London Recap

01:58 UFC Seattle Preview: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriela Fernandes

06:02 Main Card Breakdown: Terrance McKinney vs. Kyle Nelson

10:08 Co-Main Event: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber

14:36 Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer

20:09 Conclusion and Future Insights

The UFC heads to London this week for a card headlined by one of the most unique matchups of the year — undefeated vs undefeated as Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy collide for what could be a number one contender spot at featherweight. Rob breaks down the model numbers on a few key fights, including a puzzle in Michael Page vs Sam Patterson and a main card opener where the value is hiding in the method, not the moneyline. Plus, is there an app in our future? Find the edges. Protect the bankroll. Let's get into it.

Follow Rob on across all social platforms including Twitter/X at one handle: @TheRobbeo

Write-ups available at FightNumbers.substack.com

And subscribe on YouTube: TheRobbeo

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC London and Predictions

02:01 Fight Breakdown: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan

07:23 Analyzing Michael Venom Page vs. Sam Patterson

12:43 Main Event Preview: Movzar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy

17:50 Final Thoughts and A Small Announcement

The model is back this week with three confident plays heading into UFC Vegas 114. Rob breaks down the numbers on four fights — a rematch with a clear blueprint, two aging middleweights swinging for the fences, a sneaky-good co-main that deserves more attention, and a main event where the data says one thing and the odds say something else entirely. Official model bets: Piera Rodriguez, Eryk Anders (live dog), and Gillian Robertson. Plus, why laying -590 on anyone is almost always a mistake — and where the actual value lives in the Emmett/Vallejos main event if you're looking for action. Model sits at 22-10 on the year. The process holds. Let's find the edges.

Follow Rob on all social medias: @TheRobbeo

And check out the written breakdowns over at fightnumbers.substack.com

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Overview of UFC 326

02:11 Analyzing the Rematch: Piera Rodriguez vs. Sam Hughes

05:23 Veteran Clash: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders

08:37 Co-Main Event Breakdown: Amanda Lemos vs. Jillian Robertson

11:53 Main Event Analysis: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos

Rob, aka Bobby Knuckles, shares his deep dive into UFC 326, breaking down how his predictive model hits a 75% success rate — all while navigating the chaos of fight hype and emotional bets. You’ll discover why some fights are perfect for betting and others are better watched with your jaw on the floor. From Max Holloway’s durability to Charles Oliveira’s submission chaos, Rob reveals the numbers that shape this weekend's most intriguing matchups.

This isn’t just about predictions — it’s about understanding the sport at a quantum level, turning insights into victory. If you’re tired of relying on hype or wish you had an unfair advantage, this episode is your roadmap to cleaner, smarter betting. Perfect for fight fans, sports bettors, and anyone hungry for the inside scoop on UFC analytics.Rob Moreno, known as Bobby Knuckles, is a UFC betting analyst and data scientist with a proven track record of predicting fight outcomes with precision. His insights are built on years of research, real bets, and a passion for fight sports. Tune in to get smarter, bet better, and enjoy every fight more than ever.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome Back for UFC 326

02:43 Cody Garbrandt vs. Long Zhao: A Declining Champion?

05:59 Rodrigues vs. Ferreira: A Rematch of Violence

09:10 Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson: Mileage vs. Mileage

10:17 Main Event Breakdown: Holloway vs. Oliveira

11:08 BMF Breakdown: Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira

Resources:

Follow Rob on Twitter/X!

Subscribe today to the Substack as well!

The model stays hot after a 5–1 week, moving to 20–5 (80%) on the year, but UFC Mexico might be one of the lightest betting cards we’ve seen all season.

In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, we break down four key fights from UFC Mexico, headlined by Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh, and explain why discipline matters more than ever on thin-value cards.

We dive into:

• Cristian Quiñonez vs Kris Moutinho (and why the data is distorted)
• Ailín Pérez vs Macy Chiasson (tight numbers, low confidence)
• Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green (a shocking spot?)
• Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh (main event caution flag)

This week’s theme: protect the bankroll, don’t force action, and let the edges come to you.

As always, the breakdowns are built around xR%, striking differentials, grappling control, and real matchup context — not hype.

Follow Rob on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube (@TheRobbeo), read full write-ups on FightNumbers.Substack.com, and catch him occasionally on the First Strike podcast from VSiN (Also available on Youtube).

Hot start or not — we bet smart, not loud.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Weekly Update

01:25 Preliminary Fights Analysis

09:23 Main Event Discussion and Predictions

In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, Rob Moreno previews UFC Houston, discussing the card's matchups, analyzing fighters' statistics, and emphasizing the importance of betting discipline. He breaks down key fights, including the main event between Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez, while addressing the challenges of limited data and the significance of strength of schedule in fight analysis.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC Houston Preview

02:43 Analyzing Early Fights on the Card

08:15 Diving into Key Matchups

10:36 Strength of Schedule and Its Impact

16:25 Main Event Breakdown: Strickland vs. Hernandez

20:41 Final Thoughts

The model stays hot as we break down UFC Vegas 113, coming off a 4–1 week and a 10–3 start to the year (76.9%).

With no title fights on the horizon for several weeks, this episode focuses on finding value in matchups, not names. We dive into three key fights on the card, including a potential live underdog, and explain why certain favorites are playable only as props or parlay pieces.

Fights covered:

• Cong Wang vs Eduarda Moura
• Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat
• Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira (main event deep dive)

We also touch on the importance of discipline during hot streaks, and how to approach betting during this quieter stretch of the UFC calendar.

As always, the breakdowns are stat-driven, conversational, and built around xR% and matchup context — not hype.

Follow Rob on Twitter/X, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube (@TheRobbeo), read full breakdowns on FightNumbers.Substack.com, and catch him occasionally on VSiN's UFC Betting podcast, First Strike.

New episode out now — let the numbers do the work.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Overview of UFC Vegas 113

02:50 Analyzing the Fight: Cong Wang vs. Eduarda Moura

06:15 Breakdown of Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat

08:54 Main Event Analysis: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira

10:19 Betting Strategies and Insights

12:10 Conclusion with Model Betting Process

In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno breaks down UFC 325, featuring a smaller card with only six fights modeled. He discusses the importance of patience and discipline in betting, analyzes key matchups including Rafael Faziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy, Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis, and the main event between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes. The episode emphasizes the value of the betting model and the need for strategic decision-making in a selective betting environment.

Follow Bobby on all social media platforms:
@TheRobbeo

And make sure to subscribe here and on YouTube so you never miss an episode!

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC 325 and Overview of the Card

01:24 Analyzing Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy

04:51 Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis: A Fight for Violence

09:11 Main Event Breakdown: Volkanovski vs Lopes Rematch

In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno dives into UFC 324, analyzing key matchups including Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson, Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas, Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong, and the main event featuring Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett. Utilizing a predictive model, Rob discusses the odds, statistics, and insights that guide his betting strategies, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making in sports betting.

Follow me on social media!
X: @TheRobbeo

Instagram: @TheRobbeo

TikTok: @TheRobbeo

And make sure to check out the Substack for even more detailed notes and a full UFC model prediction card.

FightNumbers.substack.com

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC 324 and the Podcast

03:10 Fight Breakdown: Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson

05:52 Fight Breakdown: Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunis

08:36 Co-Main Event: Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yedong

12:22 Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs. Patty Pimlet

18:42 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

It’s the final UFC event of the year, and we’re closing 2025 with a deep dive into UFC Vegas 112: Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape.

After a 6-4 week, the model sits at 176-101-15 (63.54%), locking in a profitable season no matter what happens on Saturday.

In this episode, we break down a few key fights with full data-driven analysis, matchup insights, betting angles, and projected outcomes.

Plus: a look back at the 2025 season, the evolution of the model, and what’s coming in 2026.

Follow for more:

🐦 Twitter: @TheRobbeo

📸 Instagram: @TheRobbeo

📱 TikTok: @TheRobbeo

📝 Substack: FightNumbers.substack.com

🎙️ Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike throughout the year.

The UFC closes out the PPV era with a monster card at UFC 323, live from T-Mobile Arena — and we’re breaking down all the numbers that matter. Two championship fights headline the final mega-event of 2025: Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van for the flyweight belt, and Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 2 for the bantamweight championship. With only two events left in the year and a long six-week offseason ahead, this is a crucial week for bettors, pick’em players, and anyone chasing season-long edges.

This episode features full analytical breakdowns from El Modelo, as the system enters the week 170-97-13 (63.67%). We dig into a few fun fights to wager on — including striking profiles, xR% advantages, grappling efficiency, finishing upside, and all the hidden stats that shape fight outcomes.

Follow me everywhere:

Twitter/X: @TheRobbeo

Instagram: @TheRobbeo

Substack newsletter: FightNumbers.substack.com

Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike every Wednesday for more betting breakdowns.

Available everywhere you get your podcasts and on YouTube. 

One more card left after this — let’s finish the year strong.

UFC Qatar is here — and with only three events left in the year, it’s all about tightening the screws and finding the smartest possible spots. This week’s card is a morning start with a smaller batch of model predictions, but there are some sharp angles to attack, including live underdogs and stylistic matchups the numbers actually like.

In today’s episode, we break down three key fights — Hermansson vs Oralbai, Spivac vs Gaziev, and the main event between Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker — with full statistical context, xR% comparisons, and model probabilities.

I’ll also talk briefly about my year-long pick’em contest grind, what the model saw last week, and how we’re approaching these final three events of the season.

Follow the show & stay connected:

• Twitter/X: @TheRobbeo

• Instagram & TikTok: @TheRobbeo

• Substack: http://FightNumbers.substack.com

• Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike throughout the week as well

If you enjoy the episode, don’t forget to rate, follow, and share — it really helps the podcast grow.

Let’s make the most of these early-morning edges. Enjoy UFC Qatar!

UFC 322 is one of the deepest cards of the entire year, with two massive title fights — Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev for the welterweight belt, and Valentina Shevchenko vs Weili Zhang for the women’s flyweight championship.

This week, the model is coming off a 5–4 event and now sits at 159-92-12 on the year. With only five UFC events left on the calendar, we’re digging into the smartest angles on a card absolutely loaded with elite matchups.

In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, I break down five key fights using a blend of hard data, matchup nuances, and model projections. Including live underdog opportunities, dangerous favorite spots, and where the numbers diverge from the odds.

The UFC returns to the Apex for UFC Vegas 110 — and Rob’s breaking down the numbers!

After a few rough weeks for the model (now at 63.56%), it’s time to bounce back with a stat-driven look at this post-PPV card headlined by Steve Garcia vs David Onama.

Tune in for the usual mix of betting talk, model insights, and fight-week storylines, all in one data-powered episode.

Follow Rob on Twitter/X, Instagram, and YouTube: @TheRobbeo, and check out the written breakdowns at FightNumbers.substack.com.

For more UFC coverage, catch Rob every week on VSiN’s “First Strike” alongside Dave Ross, breaking down odds, props, and best bets for fight night.

🎧 Listen. Learn. Bet smarter. VKFLGPrI0PVqjXUrjxdX

The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for a massive double-title event at UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane, and Fighting With Numbers is breaking it all down!

Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) dives deep into the data and betting angles across five key matchups — from Umar Nurmagomedov’s bounce-back fight to the vacant strawweight title clash between Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Plus, full analysis on Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane as the heavyweight division looks to crown its true king.

📊 Model Record: 4-5 last week | 64.35% overall on the year

🎧 Subscribe & Follow:

• Twitter / Instagram: @TheRobbeo

• YouTube: http://youtube.com/@TheRobbeo

• Newsletter: FightNumbers.Substack.com

• Also catch Rob every week on the First Strike Podcast from VSiN with Dave Ross

If you enjoy the episode, hit like, subscribe, and drop a comment with your favorite bet of the week — let’s keep building this community of data-driven fight nerds!

The Fighting With Numbers podcast is back for UFC Vancouver! And this week, the model digs into a stat-stacked card headlined by Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen.

Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) breaks down the key metrics, betting trends, and model grades for some featured matchups as we look for sharp angles and possible underdogs hiding in the data.

💥 Full breakdowns, xR% comparisons, and betting confidence grades.

📊 Read the full model report at FightNumbers.Substack.com

If you enjoy the episode, subscribe, rate, and drop a comment to support the show — and follow me on X and Instagram @TheRobbeo for fight-week updates.

We’re back in Brazil for UFC Rio, headlined by former lightweight champ Charles Oliveira taking on Mateusz Gamrot in a high-stakes main event. Rob Moreno breaks down all the key fights using the Fighting With Numbers model — including xR% stats, striking metrics, and potential value spots across the card.

The model sits at 65.58%, and while it’s a cautious week after UFC 320, there’s still plenty of data to uncover and underdogs worth watching.

💬 Tune in for a full stats-based breakdown, then check out the written analysis and official picks at FightNumbers.substack.com.

🎧 Catch Rob Moreno every Wednesday on First Strike with Dave Ross over on VSiN, and follow Rob on Twitter & Instagram @TheRobbeo for model updates, fight stats, and live betting notes.

👇 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment if you enjoy the show — it really helps the channel grow!

The light heavyweight title is back on the line as Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira run it back at UFC 320. Bobby Knuckles breaks down the rematch, plus deep dives into Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen, Jiri Prochazka vs Khalil Rountree Jr, and more. Can the champ hold strong, or is another upset brewing? Tune in for stats, storylines, and betting angles from the model.

If you enjoy the show, don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and drop a review — it helps the podcast grow! You can also follow Rob on Twitter and Instagram @TheRobbeo, read weekly fight previews on FightNumbers.substack.com, and catch him every Wednesday on the First Strike podcast over at VSiN.com

The UFC returns to Australia with UFC Perth, headlined by Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes. After a week off, we’re back in the lab breaking down some key fights: Including Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya, Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny, and the big main event.

The model is steady at 133-70-10 (65%), and this week it’s pointing toward some surprising angles. We’ll dig into the stats, talk xR%, striking numbers, and control rates — and highlight where the lines might not match the math.

Just data-driven fight talk and insights to get you ready for Saturday night in Perth.

Plus, don’t forget to subscribe to the Substack at FightNumbers.substack.com and catch me on First Strike with Dave Ross every Monday and Friday on the VSiN Podcast Network. 

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Podcast notes:

Music by Elevate Audio:

http://elevate-audio.com

Noche UFC is here, headlined by Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva. I break down the key matchups, digs into the stats, and set the stage for a stacked night of fights. From Tatiana Suarez’s return, a clash of styles, every angle gets covered. Tune in for sharp insights, model talk, and a few storylines you won’t want to miss.

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Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:22 - Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos

06:11 - Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva

08:10 - Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus

10:40 - Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva

Podcast notes:

Music by Elevate Audio:

http://elevate-audio.com

After a one-week break, the UFC returns with a morning card from Paris, headlined by Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho in a matchup that could get violent fast. This week on Fighting With Numbers, we’re breaking down a slate full of finish potential, a couple of sharp underdog plays, and the fights worth targeting — and skipping — from a betting perspective. Let’s get back to work and see what the model likes in the City of Light.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:47 - Shauna Bannon vs Sam Hughes

05:55 - Oumar Sy vs Brendson Ribeiro

08:48 - Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy

11:40 - Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho

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Podcast notes:

Music by Elevate Audio:

http://elevate-audio.com

It’s UFC Shanghai, live from the other side of the world and kicking off at 3AM Eastern. The headliner? Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang in a fight that could launch Zhang into the spotlight. With the model rolling at 66% after last week’s 6-2 performance, we break down the stats, storylines, and betting angles across the card — value spots and parlay anchors. This is a card to approach cautiously, and we’ll walk you through the plays worth making before the sun comes up.

SHOW NOTES:

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:42 - Sumudaerji vs Kevin Borjas

04:17 - Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta

06:57 - Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling

09:27 - Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang

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Podcast notes:

Music by Elevate Audio:

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The middleweight belt is on the line at UFC 319 as Dricus Du Plessis faces the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev. We break down the styles, the stats, and where the edge really lies in this clash of chaos vs control. Model insights, betting angles, and why this fight could redefine the division.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:30 - Bryan Battle vs Nursulton Ruziboev

04:56 - Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose

08:00 - Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez

10:55 - Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page

14:02 - Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates

16:52 - Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev

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Podcast notes:

Music by Elevate Audio:

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It’s not the prettiest card for betting — but that’s where value hides. In this episode, we break down UFC Vegas 109 from top to bottom, including the pressure-heavy main event between Anthony Hernandez and Roman Dolidze. With the model at 65% and fresh off a 6-1 week, we’re betting smart, spotting underdogs, and making the best out of a tricky slate. Stats, strategy, and sneaky edges. 

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:30 - Gabriella Fernandes vs Julija Stoliarenko

06:10 - Joselyne Edwards vs Priscila Cachoeira

09:18 - Miles Johns vs Jean Matsumoto

10:22 - Tatsuro Taira vs Hyun Sung Park

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It’s a lighter slate for UFC Vegas 108, with Tatsuro Taira now facing Hyun Sung Park in a last-minute main event switch. While it might not be the most stacked card on paper, the model still found spots worth a closer look. This week on Fighting with Numbers, I’ll break down where the data finds value, what the main event shift means, and which fights are actually worth betting. Let’s nerd out.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:23 - Rodolfo Vieira vs Tresean Gore

04:50 - Neil Magny vs Elizeu Zaleski

08:22 - Karol Rosa vs Nora Cornolle

10:22 - Tatsuro Taira vs Hyun Sung Park

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Podcast notes:

Music by Elevate Audio:

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We’re running the numbers for UFC Abu Dhabi, headlined by Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder. Every fight is broken down by the stats, with model scores, xR percentages, and key striking and grappling data to find the best betting angles.

The model is still hitting at 65% overall accuracy, let's keep it rolling this week. 

SHOW NOTES:

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:46 - Amanda Ribas vs Tabatha Ricci

04:45 - Nikita Krylov vs Bogdan Guskov

08:15 - Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder

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Podcast notes:

Music by Elevate Audio:

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This week on Fighting with Numbers, it’s UFC 318 — and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier meet for the third time, this one for the BMF Title in what’s also Poirier’s retirement fight. The model’s dialed in on this matchup, plus some sneaky value elsewhere on the card. Let’s break down the trilogy, the title, and where the numbers are pointing for UFC 318.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:10 - Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen

05:11 - Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira

09:36 - Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov

16:10 - Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier

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Podcast notes:

Music by Elevate Audio:

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After a week off, we’re back in action for UFC Nashville, headlined by a heavyweight showdown between Derrick Lewis and rising prospect Tallison Teixeira. This week on Fighting with Numbers, the model gets back to work breaking down where the data points us — including a few key betting spots beyond the main event. It’s good to be back. Let’s get into the numbers and find the angles worth playing.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:00 - Lauren Murphy vs Eduarda Moura

05:04 - Chris Curtis vs Max Griffin

07:37 - Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira

09:50 - Calvin Kattar vs Steve Garcia

12:15 - Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim

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It’s a big one. This week on Fighting with Numbers, we’re diving into the double-title card at UFC 317. Flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja defends against Kai Kara-France, and the vacant lightweight strap is on the line between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira. The model’s fired up for this one — with value showing in both title fights and a few sleeper matchups deeper on the card. Stats, edges, and smart spots only — let’s break down UFC 317 the right way.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:16 - Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshev

10:53 - Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van

21:29 - Beniel Dariush vs Renato Moicano

29:20 - Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France

36:52 - Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira

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This week on Fighting with Numbers, the UFC heads to Baku, Azerbaijan for a more compact data card headlined by Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr. While the slate is smaller for us, the model still found spots worth watching — including a few potential value plays buried deeper on the lineup. We’re keeping it tight and focused this week: just the fights that matter, the stats that stand out, and the bets that make sense.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:04 - Recap

01:46 - This Week: UFC Baku

03:12 - Ismail Naurdiev vs Jun Yong Park

09:03 - Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes

18:10 - Jamaal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr

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This week on Fighting with Numbers, I’m breaking down UFC Atlanta, headlined by Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley, with a strong co-main event featuring Rose Namajunas vs Miranda Maverick. The model found a few surprise underdogs this week—and I’ll walk you through where the value lies and which favorites might be worth fading. As always: sharp analysis, data-backed predictions, and no fluff. Let’s bet smarter for UFC Atlanta.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:00 - Vanessa Demopoulos vs Jamey-Lyn Horth

12:19 - Cody Garbrandt vs Raoni Barcelos

23:34 - Rose Namajunas vs Miranda Maverick

33:30 - Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley

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This week on Fighting with Numbers, we’re zeroing in on the key matchups from UFC 316, headlined by the rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley. I’ll break down what the stats say, where the value might be hiding, and why a few underdogs are worth a second look. No full-card filler—just analysis, model-backed predictions, and the fights with actual numbers. 

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Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:10 - Ariane Lipski da Silva vs Cong Wang

13:51 - Serghei Spivac vs Waldo Cortes Acosta

24:21 - Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland

27:00 - Julianna Peña vs Kayla Harrison

34:52 - Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley

This week on Fighting with Numbers, I break down the UFC Vegas 107 card with a data-driven look at the fights — including the main event: Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber. Get model predictions, finish probabilities, and betting insights to help you find value across the card. If you’re looking to bet smart, not emotional, this episode has you covered.

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Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:46 - Kurt Holobough vs Jordan Leavitt

07:52 - Allan Nascimento vs Jafel Filho

13:23 - Ketlen Vieira vs Macy Chiasson

20:27 - Matuesz Gamrot vs Ludovit Klein

27:38 - Main Event: Erin Blanchfield vs Maycee Barber

In this first official episode of Fighting with Numbers, I break down 6 fights on the UFC Vegas 106 card — including the main event: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales. Using a stat-based model, I deliver predictions, finish probabilities, and betting value for these matchups.

Whether you’re chasing sharp angles or just want to see who the numbers favor, this episode gives you everything you need to bet smarter this weekend.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:46 - Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro

08:33 - Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes

14:09 - Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises

20:50 - Julian Erosa vs Melky Costa

28:06 - Dustin Stoltzfus vs Black Ruziboev

36:15 - Main Event: Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales

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Welcome to the introductory episode of Fighting with Numbers — a podcast for UFC fans and bettors who want more than just hype. In this intro, I’m breaking down what this show is all about: who I am, how my predictive model works, and what you can expect week to week. If you’re looking to make smarter, more analytical bets on UFC fights, you’re in the right place. Let’s get started.

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Join us for an exciting episode as we dive deep into the world of March Madness bracketology, college basketball betting, and the love of beer with our special guest, Greg “Hoops” Peterson.

Greg takes us on a fascinating journey through his personal history, sharing insights into his passion for bracketology and how he made his mark in the industry. From discussing the intricacies of sports betting in college basketball to unraveling the excitement of March Madness, Greg brings a wealth of knowledge and experience to the table.

But it’s not just about the games; Greg shares his love for beer and how it intertwines with his sports fandom. Get ready for an engaging conversation that combines the thrill of sports with the enjoyment of a cold brew, only on today’s episode!

Make sure to follow Greg on Twitter @GUnit_81

And follow me, Rob Moreno on all social media platforms @TheRobbeo 

Join host Rob Moreno in the latest episode of "A Better Mind Podcast" as he explores the dynamic worlds of UFC and tennis betting with guest Britton Hess. Discover the surprising parallels between these sports, Britton’s journey from television to sports gambling, and the pivotal role of daily fantasy sports in shaping his approach.

Gain valuable insights into effective sports betting strategies, including the importance of strength of schedule, live betting opportunities, and the pitfalls of high-risk parlays. Delve into the evolving UFC betting landscape and the crucial role in-fight betting plays in maximizing potential gains.

Follow Rob Moreno on social media @TheRobbeo for more updates and subscribe for enlightening conversations on "A Better Mind Podcast."

And follow Britton Hess on Twitter/X @BrittonHess. 

Plus check out his UFC weekly write ups at VSiN.com

Join me on the latest episode of 'A Bettor Mind,' where I sit down with Brian Ortega, a former Las Vegas concierge and the host of 'Concierge Confidential.' We delve into the intriguing world of Oscar betting, exploring Ortega's unique insights and strategies. Gain exclusive tips from a seasoned expert in the hospitality industry turned Oscars prognosticator.

Follow Brian Ortega on Twitter/X @BrianOrtegaLV, TikTok @KeysToVegas, and Instgram @Brian_Ortega26. 

And follow me on every social media @TheRobbeo!

You can find every episode of Concierge Confidential as well here: https://open.spotify.com/show/0RXK6YV8KlsKb7iAYYXCB8?si=5KWTUz_OSHGQ1CJAYjay_A

Make sure to rate, like, subscribe to ‘A Bettor Mind’!

Explore the dynamic world of sports betting with Jonathan Von Tobel in this episode. From his roots in Las Vegas to carving a path in sports media, join us for an insightful conversation on his unique journey, experiences, and the intersection of betting and sports culture.

Follow him on Twitter/X and Instagram @meJVT

And Follow me, Rob Moreno, on all social medias @TheRobbeo. 

In this episode of A Bettor Mind, we get to know Luke DiVasta! A producer over at DKN/VSiN. 

Learn what drew him into the world of sports betting along with what continues to push him to get better and win. Plus how he approaches his betting days and finds an edge in his bets. 

Join us as we get to know the people behind the bets. 

Make sure to rate, like, and subscribe to the pod so you never miss an episode. 

Follow Luke on twitter at @LukeDiV and @StreakBets

And follow me at @TheRobbeo on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, and even YouTube. 

Welcome to A Bettor Mind Podcast Episode 2, where we unpack the power of the 24-hour rule. Join me, Rob Moreno, on this quick, insightful journey, exploring how dedicating just 24 hours to savor victories and process setbacks can be a game-changer in both personal and professional spheres.

Make sure to follow me on my adventures on the socials: @TheRobbeo on Twitter/X and Instagram. 

Plus check out the video format on youtube.com/TheRobbeo

Let’s get it going!