Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens – Details, episodes & analysis

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Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

Rob Moreno

Sports

Frequency: 1 episode/157d. Total Eps: 47

Fighting With Numbers is the UFC betting podcast where analytics meet fight talk.

Hosted by Rob Moreno of VSiN's First Strike, each episode breaks down upcoming cards through model grades, matchup data, and betting angles that actually matter. No hype, no clickbait — just data-driven analysis that helps you read the lines, not the headlines.
Whether you’re chasing sharp value, tracking fighter trends, or just love hearing the story behind the stats, this show gives you the edge every fight week.

New episodes drop every week — where numbers tell the story inside the Octagon.

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http://robbeo.substack.com
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http://FightNumbers.substack.com
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http://FightNumbers.Substack.com
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http://elevate-audio.com
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Score global : 63%

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UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs Prates | Bets & Predictions | FWN Ep. 40

Wednesday, April 29, 2026 • Duration 19:39

The UFC heads to Perth, Australia this week for a card that has most of us in the States setting a 1AM alarm. Rob breaks down three fights through the model — including a main event featuring a former welterweight champion looking to remind everyone who he is, a veteran grappler on a skid facing a tough road back, and a flyweight matchup where the model finds something the odds aren't reflecting. Plus — big news this week. FightingWithNumbers.com is officially live. The full site is up and running with model data, breakdowns, and more. Go check it out.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and get full written breakdowns every week at FightNumbers.Substack.com.

Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Milestones
00:22 Reviewing Last Week's Predictions
01:52 UFC Perth Preview and Fight Breakdown
08:21 Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg Analysis
12:58 Main Event: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates 17:39 Final Thoughts and Betting Strategies

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UFC Vegas 116: Sterling vs Zalal | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 39

Wednesday, April 22, 2026 • Duration 17:43

UFC Vegas 116 is headlined by former bantamweight champion, Aljamain Sterling, set to face one of the hottest fighters in the featherweight division right now in Youssef Zalal. Rob breaks down a few fights on the card through the model — including a co-main where the edge is clear but the price may not be. Sometimes the most disciplined move is knowing when not to bet, and this week the model is making that case loud and clear.

Plus a big update on the Fighting With Numbers web app.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and get full model data and written breakdowns every week at FightNumbers.Substack.com.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC Betting and Model Performance 02:04 UFC Vegas 116 Preview and Key Fights

04:33 Analyzing Norma Dumont vs. Joselyne Edwards 08:29 Main Event Breakdown: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal

09:42 Model Predictions and Betting Strategy

13:46 Web App Announcement and Closing Thoughts

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UFC Winnipeg: Burns vs Malott | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 38

Wednesday, April 15, 2026 • Duration 26:46

UFC heads to Winnipeg this week for a lean card — but before diving into the fights, Rob pulls back the curtain on how the Fighting With Numbers model actually works. What is xR%? How do the tiers work? What makes something a Live Dog versus a stay-away? All of that gets answered before breaking down the fights on the card, including a main event where the model agrees with the direction but maybe not the price. Short card, one strong play, and a model explainer worth tuning in for whether you're a first-time listener or a longtime follower.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and get full model data and written breakdowns every week at FightNumbers.Substack.com.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC Winnipeg Preview

02:15 Understanding the Model Behind the Predictions

04:46 Analyzing Fighter Metrics and Performance

07:29 Exploring the Tier System for Betting

16:41 Kyler Phillips vs Charles Jourdain

20:47 Evaluating the Main Event: Burns vs. Malott

24:40 Final Thoughts and Betting Strategies

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UFC 327: Prochazka vs Ulberg | Betting Breakdown | Fighting With Numbers Ep. 37

Wednesday, April 8, 2026 • Duration 21:31

Rob Moreno provides an in-depth analysis of UFC 327, including fight predictions, betting insights, and fighter breakdowns. He shares his modeling process, key fight data, and betting strategies for this weeks event.

Follow Rob on all social media platforms @TheRobbeo

Substack: FightNumbers.Substack.com

Interested in the Web App version of Fighting With Numbers? Feel free to drop me a line and I'd be happy to share!

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Overview of UFC 327

02:34 Gastelum vs Luque

06:34 Tatiana Suarez vs. Lupita Godinez Breakdown

10:59 Cub Swanson's Farewell Fight

14:23 Main Event: Jiri Prochazka vs Carlos Ulberg

19:29 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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UFC Vegas 115: Moicano vs Duncan | Betting Predictions | Fighting With Numbers Ep. 36

Wednesday, April 1, 2026 • Duration 22:18

Rob Moreno discusses the UFC Seattle recap, the controversy around judging, and provides a preview of UFC Vegas 115. He analyzes three upcoming fights, highlighting key statistics and betting insights.

Follow Rob on X:

@TheRobbeo

And hit the substack!

Fight Numbers Substack

First Strike on YT

Fighting With Numbers on YT

Chapters

00:00 UFC Seattle Recap and Judging Controversy
12:28 Fight Analysis: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabitha Ricci
20:28 Fight Analysis: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan

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UFC Seattle: Adesanya vs Pyfer | Betting Predictions | Fighting With Numbers Ep. 35

Wednesday, March 25, 2026 • Duration 22:23

The UFC heads to Seattle this week and the main event has legacy written all over it. Israel Adesanya — former champion, three-fight losing streak — steps in against a hungry Joe Pyfer who smells an opportunity. Rob breaks down four fights through the model, including a co-main event rematch five years in the making between Alexa Grasso and Maycee Barber, a stay-away spot that the model loves but the bankroll won't touch, and a line movement story that flips one fight completely on its head. The numbers don't lie — and this week they're pointing at some underdogs. Let's get into it.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and UFC London Recap

01:58 UFC Seattle Preview: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriela Fernandes

06:02 Main Card Breakdown: Terrance McKinney vs. Kyle Nelson

10:08 Co-Main Event: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber

14:36 Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer

20:09 Conclusion and Future Insights

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Evloev vs Murphy Picks & Preview | UFC London Breakdown | Fighting With Numbers Ep. 34

Wednesday, March 18, 2026 • Duration 20:44

The UFC heads to London this week for a card headlined by one of the most unique matchups of the year — undefeated vs undefeated as Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy collide for what could be a number one contender spot at featherweight. Rob breaks down the model numbers on a few key fights, including a puzzle in Michael Page vs Sam Patterson and a main card opener where the value is hiding in the method, not the moneyline. Plus, is there an app in our future? Find the edges. Protect the bankroll. Let's get into it.

Follow Rob on across all social platforms including Twitter/X at one handle: @TheRobbeo

Write-ups available at FightNumbers.substack.com

And subscribe on YouTube: TheRobbeo

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC London and Predictions

02:01 Fight Breakdown: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan

07:23 Analyzing Michael Venom Page vs. Sam Patterson

12:43 Main Event Preview: Movzar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy

17:50 Final Thoughts and A Small Announcement

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UFC Vegas 114 Betting Picks & Predictions: Emmett vs Vallejos | Fighting With Numbers Ep. 33

Wednesday, March 11, 2026 • Duration 17:46

The model is back this week with three confident plays heading into UFC Vegas 114. Rob breaks down the numbers on four fights — a rematch with a clear blueprint, two aging middleweights swinging for the fences, a sneaky-good co-main that deserves more attention, and a main event where the data says one thing and the odds say something else entirely. Official model bets: Piera Rodriguez, Eryk Anders (live dog), and Gillian Robertson. Plus, why laying -590 on anyone is almost always a mistake — and where the actual value lives in the Emmett/Vallejos main event if you're looking for action. Model sits at 22-10 on the year. The process holds. Let's find the edges.

Follow Rob on all social medias: @TheRobbeo

And check out the written breakdowns over at fightnumbers.substack.com

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Overview of UFC 326

02:11 Analyzing the Rematch: Piera Rodriguez vs. Sam Hughes

05:23 Veteran Clash: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders

08:37 Co-Main Event Breakdown: Amanda Lemos vs. Jillian Robertson

11:53 Main Event Analysis: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos

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UFC 326 BMF Betting: Holloway vs Oliveira | Fighting With Numbers Ep. 32

Wednesday, March 4, 2026 • Duration 19:10

Rob, aka Bobby Knuckles, shares his deep dive into UFC 326, breaking down how his predictive model hits a 75% success rate — all while navigating the chaos of fight hype and emotional bets. You’ll discover why some fights are perfect for betting and others are better watched with your jaw on the floor. From Max Holloway’s durability to Charles Oliveira’s submission chaos, Rob reveals the numbers that shape this weekend's most intriguing matchups.

This isn’t just about predictions — it’s about understanding the sport at a quantum level, turning insights into victory. If you’re tired of relying on hype or wish you had an unfair advantage, this episode is your roadmap to cleaner, smarter betting. Perfect for fight fans, sports bettors, and anyone hungry for the inside scoop on UFC analytics.Rob Moreno, known as Bobby Knuckles, is a UFC betting analyst and data scientist with a proven track record of predicting fight outcomes with precision. His insights are built on years of research, real bets, and a passion for fight sports. Tune in to get smarter, bet better, and enjoy every fight more than ever.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome Back for UFC 326

02:43 Cody Garbrandt vs. Long Zhao: A Declining Champion?

05:59 Rodrigues vs. Ferreira: A Rematch of Violence

09:10 Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson: Mileage vs. Mileage

10:17 Main Event Breakdown: Holloway vs. Oliveira

11:08 BMF Breakdown: Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira

Resources:

Follow Rob on Twitter/X!

Subscribe today to the Substack as well!

UFC Mexico Betting Preview: Moreno vs Kavanagh | Fighting With Numbers

Wednesday, February 25, 2026 • Duration 14:24

The model stays hot after a 5–1 week, moving to 20–5 (80%) on the year, but UFC Mexico might be one of the lightest betting cards we’ve seen all season.

In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, we break down four key fights from UFC Mexico, headlined by Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh, and explain why discipline matters more than ever on thin-value cards.

We dive into:

Cristian Quiñonez vs Kris Moutinho (and why the data is distorted)
Ailín Pérez vs Macy Chiasson (tight numbers, low confidence)
Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green (a shocking spot?)
Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh (main event caution flag)

This week’s theme: protect the bankroll, don’t force action, and let the edges come to you.

As always, the breakdowns are built around xR%, striking differentials, grappling control, and real matchup context — not hype.

Follow Rob on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube (@TheRobbeo), read full write-ups on FightNumbers.Substack.com, and catch him occasionally on the First Strike podcast from VSiN (Also available on Youtube).

Hot start or not — we bet smart, not loud.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Weekly Update

01:25 Preliminary Fights Analysis

09:23 Main Event Discussion and Predictions

Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens – Details, episodes & analysis

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Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens – Details, episodes & analysis

Podcast details

Recent rankings

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Shared links between episodes and podcasts

Substack6

Other2

RSS feed quality and score

Publication history

Latest published episodes

Similar podcasts and content

Related Shows Based on Content Similarities

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Related Shows Based on Content Similarities

Substack6

Other2

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