"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg – Details, episodes & analysis

In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and explore how AI is reshaping the economy, jobs, business profitability, industry competition, and financing, while drawing historical parallels and offering insights into its broader societal impact.

–

SPONSORS:

Zcash

Zcash offers private, encrypted digital money that protects users from AI-powered surveillance, allowing people to store and spend wealth without compromising their privacy.  Try it out. Download Zashi wallet and follow @genzcash to learn more: ⁠https://x.com/genzcash⁠

Notion

AI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at ⁠notion.com/lp/econ102⁠

NetSuite

More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/

-

Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at ⁠notion.com/lp/econ102

• AI Bubble Prediction: The speaker forecasts an AI crash similar to the 2001 dot-com bust, but believes AI will ultimately succeed long-term
• Employment Evolution, Not Elimination: Research shows unemployment rising in jobs that use AI less, contradicting fears that AI directly replaces workers
• Data Center Financing Risks: How financing methods for AI infrastructure could create systemic risks similar to the 2008 financial crisis if private credit becomes the main vehicle
• Bond Market Shift: Companies like Meta are increasingly issuing their own bonds rather than using opaque private credit markets, a healthier approach to AI infrastructure financing
• Multiple Winners in AI: How the massive size of AI markets is enabling multiple successful companies in each category despite traditional concerns about moats
• Venture Capital's AI Approach: a16z has been investing heavily in AI companies but feels they've been "too conservative" given the multiple winners emerging across categories

Quotes:

"We tend to think that the markets are just so much bigger, and so even if there's no traditional moats protecting it from other entrants, that there can be multiple winners in a category.” - Erik Torenberg

LINKS:

• The a16z podcast: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX⁠
• Noahpinion newsletter: ⁠https://noahpinion.substack.com/⁠
• Erik Torenberg's Substack: ⁠https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/

Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co

-

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode from the a16z Podcast, Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg discuss AGI, exploring how AI might transform labor markets, economic growth, space exploration, and geopolitical dynamics in the coming decades.

–

SPONSORS:

Zcash

Zcash offers private, encrypted digital money that protects users from AI-powered surveillance, allowing people to store and spend wealth without compromising their privacy.  Try it out. Download Zashi wallet and follow @genzcash to learn more: https://x.com/genzcash

Notion

AI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102

NetSuite

More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/

-

Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102

• Defining AGI: Noah and Dwarkesh begin by establishing working definitions of Artificial General Intelligence - from systems that "can do almost any job at least as well as humans" to more near-term AI that "can automate 95% of white-collar work"
• Current AI Limitations: Present systems lack crucial continual learning capabilities that would allow them to build context over time and improve with experience like humans do
• Historical Parallels: The conquistadors' conquest of the Aztec and Inca empires provides a cautionary tale about information asymmetry and how technological advantages can lead to domination
• AI Cooperation: The hosts discuss the need for US-China cooperation on AI safety, similar to the "red telephone" during the Cold War, to prevent AI-related sabotage
• AI Market Competition: Analysis of the surprising trend of increasing rather than decreasing competitors at the AI frontier, despite rising costs of training frontier models
• Network Effects vs. Technical Capability: Discussion of whether brand recognition (like "ChatGPT") or technological advantages will determine market leaders

Quotes:

"If you make the best AI, it gets even better. So why enter that? That's the big question." - Noah Smith

LINKS:

• The a16z podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX
• Noahpinion newsletter: https://noahpinion.substack.com/
• Dwarkesh podcast: https://www.dwarkesh.com/
• Erik Torenberg's Substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/

Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co

-

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg examine global conflicts—especially India-Pakistan tensions—the U.S. military and industrial strategy amid rising threats from China, and the implications of AI and electrification, emphasizing the need for smarter immigration and industrial policies to maintain America's technological and geopolitical edge.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠ 

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• India-Pakistan Conflict Analysis: Noah explains the territorial dispute over Kashmir dating back to the 1947 partition, with both countries claiming parts of each other's territory.
• America's Declining Global Influence: Noah argues we're seeing the "crumbling of Pax Americana" - reduced American deterrent effect allowing conflicts to escalate further.
• Critical Defense Industrial Base Concerns: America cannot match China's manufacturing capacity for military equipment, particularly missiles and drones.
• Economic Analysis - The Great Wage Stagnation: Wages stagnated for about 20 years, then resumed growth in the 1990s.
• Technology Transformation - The Electric Future: Battery and motor technology improvements are enabling electricity to replace combustion in cars, drones, appliances, and military equipment.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg record an episode to discuss the war between Israel and Hamas, the moral problems with the leftist ideological response, the complicated geopolitical power dynamics in the Arab world, and how this conflict marks the waning of American power. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

--

Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE 

Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. 

Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 

NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.

--

Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co

--

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Unpacking the events that led to war in Israel

(05:18)Moral problems of the new leftist ideology

(11:00) Power dynamics of the Middle East and investment in the conflict

(21:29) Sponsors: Daffy | NetSuite

(23:30) Reacting to Sam Harris' statement about moral equivalence

(33:20) Is apartheid a fair analogy?

(41:00) Where the Saudi Arabia alliance goes from here

(46:30)The three-state solution?

(47:00) Taking stock of technological advancement

(52:00) Israel's military advantage is not guaranteed here

(54:55) This war is downstream of the waning of American power

(57:30) America is reserving most of our weapons

(01:01:15) What does it mean for the Pax Americana to be over?

(01:05:30) The Middle East is stuck in a mindset of war

–

Music License: ZSFI0EY7UP5YYXI2

This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Economist Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the legacy and failings of Bernie Sanders’ movement with regards to privatization, student loans, healthcare, and the wealth gap. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

--

Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE 

Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. 

Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 

NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.

--

Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co

--

Timestamps

(00:00) Episode Preview

(01:32) The Bernie movement’s evolution

(05:00) Factionalism and aggression marking the approach of socialists

(15:36) Glass-Steagall litmus test

(19:00) Sponsors: Daffy | NetSuite

(21:11) Can neoliberalism work?

(22:34) Biggest mistakes of privatization: the non-profit industrialization complex

(26:18) Lack of industrial policy is a pro-finance policy

(27:30) Chief neoliberal shill

(30:05) How Biden is carrying forward the legacy of Bernie’s movement

(34:10) Inflation killed student loan relief (besides the courts)

(41:00) How Bernie bungled his egalitarian movement

(48:45) Wealth tax

(50:55) Healthcare

This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Economist Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Noah's Substack essays about a possible age of Austerity, and moving away from China for the US's next age of globalization. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

--

Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE 

Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. 

Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 

NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.

--

Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co

--

LINKS:

“An Age of Austerity is probably on the way” : https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/an-age-of-austerity-is-probably-on

“No one knows how much the government can borrow” : https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/no-one-knows-how-much-the-government

“The next phase of globalization is going to be awesome” : https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-next-phase-of-globalization-is

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Episode Preview

(01:24 - 23:48) Age of Austerity

(04:27) Reducing the deficit

(02:47) What spending cuts will we see?

(06:10) What’s the bottom line for growth?

(18:38) Sponsors: Daffy and Netsuite

(23:49) Adjust your graphs for inflation!

(25:22) Why a cheaper US dollar is actually a weapon

(26:55) Chinese “dumping”

(29:42) The next wave of globalization is going to be awesome

(32:29) China is a nuts country

(33:35) Are we deglobalizing?

(35:51) South and Southeast Asia

(43:19) Economic Nationalism is here to stay

(46:57) Globalization moving forward is about reducing our dependency on China

--

X / TWITTER: 

@noahpinion (Noah)

@eriktorenberg (Erik)

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Economist Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Noah's recent Substack post skewering the claims and proposals that make up Republican Presidential candidate Vivek's Ramaswamy's platform. Noah covers Vivek's climate science sources, economic facts on renewable energy, foreign policy stance towards China, Russia, Taiwan and more. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

--

Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE 

Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. 

Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 

NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.

--

Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co

--

TIMESTAMPS:

(01:00) Episode Preview

(03:20) Why Noah doesn’t think Vivek should be tech’s candidate

(07:20) Vivek’s views on climate are stuck in 2010

(13:15) Countering Vivek’s sources on climate

(17:52) Sponsors: Daffy | NetSuite

(21:00) Vivek's foreign policy claims

(27:00) Viviek's Russia & Ukraine takes

(31:45) Any charitable view of Vivek's foreign policy?

(33:00) Biden vs Trump vs Obama foreign policy

(40:00) Noah's ideal foreign policy: the Anti-Empire

(44:00) Republicans need to advocate for defense spending

(46:00) Similarities between abundance movement and dismantling the administrative state

(50:00) Noah's pick for Republican candidate

(57:00) Why Vivek is not the one.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Adam Nash to discuss the economic implications of AI, the recent tech downturn, and why the venture model has been so successful across multiple tech booms. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners, a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy. https://www.daffy.org/econ102 

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

--

Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE 

Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. 

Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 

NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.

--

Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co

--

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Episode Preview

(02:00) Why AI may stop nerds from ruling the world

(06:25) Are “Skilled” and “Unskilled” the correct labels in this debate?

(10:00) Who benefits from a growth mindset?

(13:00) Coding example

(14:25) Highly skilled tech workers get a boost

(17:20) Substitutability versus overall boost

(20:55) Sponsor: NetSuite

(23:45) AI as a productivity tool

(25:30) AI ethics and safety

(28:50) Adam Nash’s journey into fintech

(30:55) How Americans think about giving

(33:30) Macro: What does the current Tech downturn mean?

(35:00) People looking for a quick snapback and boom will be disappointed

(37:00) How will AI revolutionize distribution?

(39:50) Smartphones and depression

(43:45) Why the VC model has been so successful across multiple technology booms.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss how today’s economy compares to the Reagan-era, cheap oil geopolitics, how much the war in Ukraine is actually costing the US, and the economics of the populist anthem Rich Men North of Richmond. If you’re looking for an ERP platform, check out our sponsor, NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/102

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

--

Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE 

Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. 

Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 

NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.

--

Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co

🎧 You can also listen to Econ 102 on the podcast platform of your choice: https://link.chtbl.com/Econ102

--

Timestamps:

(01:13) What would a better US economy look like?

(05:59) Debt gets inflated away

(09:02) Fiscal Dominance

(09:59) Age of cheap oil

(19:05) Noah vs. Balaji Srinivasan’s bearish case that the US financial system is vulnerable.

(27:25) How the Reagan Era Compares to Today

(32:28) Economic attribution for presidents

(43:12) The surplus war in Ukraine

(49:05) Fact checking the economics of Rich Men North of Richmond

(57:47) Is the age of the nerd over?

This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In episode 8 of ECON 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the factors brewing up a major crisis for China’s economy, and what this means for the US and other international powers. If you’re looking for an ERP platform, check out our sponsor, NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/turpentine

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

--

Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE 

Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. 

Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 

NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist.

--

Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co

--

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Episode Preview

(01:37) Noah’s observations from his trip to Japan

(03:03) Chinese Economic Carnage

(04:09) Who is affected?

(04:59) How will falling resource prices affect inflation?

(14:12) China’s upcoming recession

(16:41) China’s building investments need to stop

(20:12) China’s paradox of thrift

(20:57) China’s boomer republican leaders

(21:39) What can China’s growth look like from here?

(27:11) What are China’s options for allaying the unrest?

(28:44) Extend and Pretend

(29:26) Balaji was wrong about China as diplomatic power

(33:18) China owns a Sri Lankan city now

(34:04) When Noah was most bullish on China’s future: the Hu Jintao era

(36:33) Xi JinPing as Stalin; Steve Ballmer

(40:00) The revolution of rising expectations theory in American 

(44:52) Spelling out our biggest fears about China

(47:23) Successes in recent alliances: Japan and Korea alliances, India, Vietnam,

(51:00) What are we watching for next?

This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.