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Peter Schwartz, the futurist behind Minority Report, explains 3 steps for predicting what comes next.
It's very easy to imagine how things might go wrong, but it's much harder to imagine how things might go right.
"Futurists" are those who study the future so that the people alive today can make better decisions for tomorrow.
It is impossible to get all of the predictions right. The point of futurism, however, is to envision multiple scenarios in which we can test our decisions so that we are ready for whatever actually occurs.
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This video is part of The Progress Issue, a Big Think and Freethink special collaboration.
In this inaugural special issue we set out to explore progress ā how it happens, how we nurture it and how we stifle it, and what changes are required in how we approach our most serious problems to ensure greater and more equitable progress for all.
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About Peter Schwartz:
Peter Schwartz is an internationally renowned futurist and business strategist, specializing in scenario planning and working with corporations, governments, and institutions to create alternative perspectives of the future and develop robust strategies for a changing and uncertain world. As Senior Vice President of Strategic Planning for Salesforce, he manages the organizationās ongoing strategic conversation.
Peter was co-founder and chairman of Global Business Network. He is the author of several works. His first book, The Art of the Long View, is considered a seminal publication on scenario planning. Peter has also served as a script consultant on the films "The Minority Report," "Deep Impact," "Sneakers," and "War Games." He received a B.S. in aeronautical engineering and astronautics from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in New York.
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Psychopathy can be treatedābut hereās why it rarely is | Prof. Abigail Marsh
Sunday, November 16, 2025 ā¢ Duration 13:46
Psychopathy is actually a spectrum, and care is the variable that differentiates true psychopaths from highly empathetic people. Hereās why that matters, and how it can be treated, according to Professor Abigail Marsh.
Humans are among the most altruistic species that weāve studied, due to our alloparental instincts ā a trait we evolved into that allows us to care for offspring who are not our own. Across species, the ones who alloparent the most appear to be the most altruistic. Very altruistic people seem to be the opposite of those who are psychopathic in terms of their neural structure, neural function, and characteristic emotional traits.
Science has been studying psychopathy for decades, but only more recently have we been identifying the basic neurocognitive building blocks of those deficits in psychopathy, says Abigail Marsh, PhD.
Here, Marsh explains how the psychopathic break is different, early warning signs that may indicate a lack of empathy, and how psychopathy can be treated.
Timestamps:
0:00 - The psychopathy spectrum
1:08 - An alloparental species
2:32 - The physiology of psychopathy
5:53 - The lateral prefrontal cortex
6:29 - Treating psychopathy
About Abigail Marsh:
Abigail Marsh is a Professor in the Department of Psychology and the Interdisciplinary Neuroscience Program at Georgetown University. She received her PhD in Social Psychology from Harvard University in 2004.
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The illusion of self and the illusion of free will, explained | Annaka Harris
Sunday, November 16, 2025 ā¢ Duration 14:17
āMany people get stuck in feeling responsible for their psychological state, and there's a way in which simply being with whatever uncomfortable emotions rather than believing that you are controlling them can be extremely beneficial for psychological wellbeing.āĀ Are you actually in the driverās seat of your own life? The illusion of free will says that our choices are determined by factors greater than our intentions and actions, that total conscious control is purely an illusion. We may assume that illusions like this have evolved for their usefulness, but most illusions that we experience are actually glitches, says bestselling author Annaka Harris. Take for example the illusion of self ā the other side of the illusion of free will coin. We think of ourselves as solid, unchanging entities that move through time and space, separate from the rest of the physical world. This illusion confuses us about our place in nature, and the state of our reality. Harris explores these two illusions and how they shape our everyday experience.About Annaka Harris:Annaka Harris is the New York Times bestselling author of CONSCIOUS: A Brief Guide to the Fundamental Mystery of the Mind and writer and producer of the forthcoming audio documentary series, LIGHTS ON. Her work has appeared in The New York Times, Nautilus Magazine, the Journal of Consciousness Studies, and IAI Magazine. She is also an editor and consultant for science writers, specializing in neuroscience and physics. Annaka is the author of the childrenās book I Wonder, coauthor of the Mindful Games Activity Cards, and a volunteer mindfulness teacher for the organization Inner Kids
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Who will you become during a crisis? | Amanda Ripley
Sunday, November 16, 2025 ā¢ Duration 13:26
**How Youāll Really React in a Disaster (And How to Survive)**
You think you know how you'd handle a life-or-death crisisābut the truth is, most of us *freeze, delay, or deny* reality when disaster strikes. In this eye-opening episode, we uncover the hidden forces shaping your "disaster personality" and why survival isn't just about braveryāitās about *preparation and mindset*.
From the shocking psychology behind why people ignore alarms to the real reason heroes emerge, we break down the phases of crisis response and how you can train your brain to act *before itās too late*.
Because in a real emergency, hesitation kills. Are you ready?
"Humans, like most mammals, tend to shut down in really frightening situations for which they have no training or prior experience. Researchers call it negative panic. People do nothing. They shut down."
We all have ideas about how we're gonna behave in a crisis or emergency, but itās almost never how it actually plays out when weāre faced with a disaster situation, says bestselling author Amanda Ripley. In fact, you have another personality ā a ādisaster personalityā ā and it's helpful to understand what it is before you are forced to embody it. Studying human behavior in different disasters across history reveals a huge spectrum of responses. Sometimes people start hysterically screaming, others shut down. Some laugh in the face of a life or death situation. In Ripleyās book, "The Unthinkable," the author followed people who had survived disasters of all kinds, and found that there's a pattern, even across very different contexts, from plane crashes to earthquakes. Almost always, people go through a period of certain emotions. Do you want to learn how to master your disaster response before facing a crisis? Ripley explains how. Timestamps: 00:00: The psychology of surviving a crisis01:20: The crisis pattern01:52: Denial03:06: Deliberation04:54: The decisive moment
About Amanda Ripley:Amanda Ripley is a New York Times bestselling author, Washington Post contributor, and co-founder of consultancy firm, Good Conflict. Her books include The Smartest Kids in the World, High Conflict, and The Unthinkable.
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How close are we to finding alien life? | David Kipping
Sunday, November 16, 2025 ā¢ Duration 24:30
### š½ Are We Alone? ā David Kippingās Cosmic Quest (Fun Summary)
š **Weāre the new-age explorers.**
Astronomers are mapping **exoplanets**āworlds beyond our solar system. Think of it like Google Maps for the galaxy.
š **Earth twins? Not quite.**
Many so-called āEarth-likeā planets arenāt as friendly as they seem. Finding real alien life? Tough. **No signal ā no aliens.**
šø **Where *are* they, though?**
Enter the **Fermi Paradox**: If the universe is full of planets, why havenāt we met anyone? Maybe intelligent life is **extremely rare**, or maybe they just donāt want to talk.
š§¬ **Life = ???**
Nobody agrees on what life *is*. Carbon-based? Self-replicating? What about **AI** or weird alien chemistry?
š§Ŗ **How we search:**
- **Biosignatures** = chemical clues in alien atmospheres.
- **Technosignatures** = signs of alien tech (like lasers or satellites).
š¢ **Maybe weāre bad at math.**
The classic **Drake Equation** multiplies guesses. Kipping says we should *also add* possibilitiesāthere might be many paths to life.
š§¼ **Should we shout or stay silent?**
Sending signals (METI) might be risky. What if aliens arenāt friendly? But Kipping argues: if weāre visible anyway, **we canāt really hide**.
š°ļø **Aliens might send... Sculpture?**
Instead of radio, they could leave **giant space objects** to block starlight in patternsāa cosmic "hello" that lasts forever.
š **In the end:**
Weāre just getting started. The universe is huge. The hunt for alien life is a **long game**, and weāre only in inning one.
**š Keywords:**
Exoplanets, Alien Life, Intelligent Civilizations, Fermi Paradox, Drake Equation, Technosignatures, Biosignatures, Space Exploration, SETI, METI, David Kipping, Astrobiology, Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Life Beyond Earth, Interstellar Communication, Cosmic Silence, Earth-like Planets, Habitability, Exoplanet Detection, Deep Space Signals, Alien Megastructures, Scientific Curiosity, Rare Earth Hypothesis, Great Filter, Cosmic Perspective, AI and Alien Life, Astronomy, Planetary Science
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The overpopulation myth, debunked by a data scientist | Hannah Ritchie
Sunday, November 16, 2025 ā¢ Duration 10:23
Chapters:
00:00: The overpopulation concern
02:01: Global population growth rates
02:28: The fall in global fertility rates
03:06: Amount of food produced per person
03:50: Per capita CO2 emissions
04:17: The underpopulation concern
### š **Is Overpopulation Really the Problem? Or Is It a Dangerous Myth?**
For decades, one idea has haunted environmental debates:
**"There are just too many people on Earth."**
From forced sterilizations to cutting food aid, some of the so-called āsolutionsā to this perceived crisis have been deeply unethicalāand alarmingly popular.
š This fear peaked in the 1960sā70s with the release of *The Population Bomb*, predicting mass famine and chaos. But the world evolved in two critical ways:
#### 1. š **Global fertility rates fell sharply**
In 1950, the average woman had **5 children**. Today, it's just **2.3**āand still falling.
#### 2. š¾ **Technological leaps in agriculture**
Yields have doubled, tripled, or even quadrupled across many regions. We're growing **more food per person** than ever beforeāeven with billions more people.
š Still, many argue that populationāespecially in **low-income countries**āfuels climate change. But hereās the truth:
- These regions often have **extremely low COā emissions per person.**
- You could add **billions** more people at those levels and barely affect global emissions.
### š§ **A New Crisis: Underpopulation?**
In high-income nations, the worry has flipped.
Aging populations threaten economies as **working-age groups shrink**, weakening the very engine that drives productivity and growth.
### š” **The Most Dangerous Idea?**
Comparing humanity to a **cancer on the planet.**
It implies people are the problemāand removal is the solution.
But weāre also the **innovators, problem-solvers, and stewards** of Earthās future.
**If we dehumanize each other, how do we build a better world together?**
š **So if not overpopulationā¦ what *is* the real environmental threat?**
Letās explore that next.
overpopulation, population growth, fertility rates, demographic transition, The Population Bomb, Paul Ehrlich, agricultural advancements, food per person, global population, climate change, CO2 emissions per capita, underpopulation, aging populations, working-age population, sustainable development, climate solutions, environmental impact, economic stability, population density, global cooperation, human impact on environment, overpopulation myth, technological advancements in agriculture
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Sam Harris: The great problem of our time
Sunday, November 16, 2025 ā¢ Duration 13:35
**"Weāre on the brink of a crisisāone of meaning, of truth, of civilization itself."**
In this gripping Big Think episode, Sam Harris unpacks the silent catastrophe unraveling in modern society: a shattered culture where digital isolation, political extremism, and misinformation have made genuine conversation nearly impossible. He warns that without open, honest dialogue, weāre left with only one alternativeāviolence.
With striking clarity, Harris exposes how our deepest conflicts arenāt driven by "bad people," but by **good people trapped in bad ideas.** The stories we believe shape our world, and when those stories become untethered from reality, chaos follows. But there is hope. The future isnāt set in stoneāit depends on what we choose to believe, what we choose to fight for, and whether we can still find common ground in an era of division.
Can we break free from the toxic cycle of outrage and misinformation? Or are we doomed to spiral into deeper conflict? **The answer may decide the fate of civilization itself.**
"I think we need a truly open-ended conversation with 8 billion strangers, andwhat makes that hard to do increasingly is a level of political fragmentation and extremism andpartisanship born of our engagement with these new technologies."
Our culture has atomized: Weāre all on our own with our phones, laptops, and digital media experiences. No one knows what everyone else is seeing. In some ways, these technologies have caused a shattering of culture, and we canāt seem to agree about our perceptions of the world, says philosopher and neuroscientist Sam Harris. To combat this, we need to secure some semblance of human wellbeing. What makes that an increasing challenge is the political fragmentation and extremism born from our engagement with new technologies. Weāre witnessing a zero-sum contest between those of us who want to maintain open societies and those who increasingly want to build closed, belligerent ones that make it impossible to share space. We have to become more intelligent to deal with these threats without losing the values we seek to defend. Thatās why dogmatism is an intellectual sin, and overcoming it is key to building a better future for us all, says Harris. Timestamps: 0:00: A crisis of meaning2:03: Conversation vs. Violence3:51: Good people, bad ideas5:37: Eliminating dogma7:36: Your mind is all you have
About Sam Harris: Sam Harris is the author of the New York Times bestsellers, The End of Faith and Letter to a Christian Nation. The End of Faith won the 2005 PEN Award for Nonfiction.Mr. Harris' writing has been published in over ten languages. He and his work have been discussed in Newsweek, TIME, The New York Times, Scientific American, Rolling Stone, and many other journals. His writing has appeared in Newsweek, The Los Angeles Times, The Times (London), The Boston Globe, The Atlantic, Nature, The Annals of Neurology, and elsewhere.Mr. Harris is a graduate in philosophy from Stanford University and holds a PhD in neuroscience from UCLA, where he studied the neural basis of belief with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). He is also a Co-Founder and CEO of Project Reason.
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The hidden networks of everything | Albert-LĆ”szlĆ³ BarabĆ”si
Sunday, November 16, 2025 ā¢ Duration 10:27
Our world is filled with an abundance of data. Albert-LĆ”szlĆ³ BarabĆ”si, a network scientist, believes that understanding the underlying structure and relationships of complex systems is crucial. BarabĆ”siās research has challenged the notion of random connections and led to the discovery of a more accurate representation of how these systems are organized.
BarabĆ”siās exploration began with the vast internet. Surprisingly, he found that the intricate web of connections did not follow random patterns but instead followed a power load distribution. He named these networks āscale-free networks.ā
BarabĆ”siās groundbreaking work reveals that new connections in our networks tend to form with already well-connected elements. Scale-free networks exist in various complex systems, such as cellular interactions and social networks. This discovery is an important step toward comprehending the remarkable complexity that arises from countless interactions among the worldās many components.
0:00 Networks: How the world works
1:23 The theory of random graphs
3:15 What is network science?
6:49 Complex systems
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About Albert-LĆ”szlĆ³ BarabĆ”si:
Albert-LĆ”szlĆ³ BarabĆ”si is a network scientist, fascinated with a wide range of topics, from unveiling the structure of the brain and treating diseases using network medicine to the emergence of success in art and how science really works. His research has helped unveil the hidden order behind various complex systems using the quantitative tools of network science, a research field that he pioneered, and has led to the discovery of scale-free networks, helping explain the emergence of many natural, technological, and social networks.
BarabƔsi is a Fellow of the American Physical Society. He is the author of The Formula (Little Brown), Network Science (Cambridge), Bursts (Dutton), and Linked (Penguin). He co-edited Network Medicine (Harvard, 2017) and The Structure and Dynamics of Networks (Princeton, 2005). His books have been translated into over twenty languages.
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America is rife with political traps. Whatās your escape route? | The Dilemma Ep. 3
Sunday, November 16, 2025 ā¢ Duration 21:43
Can we let go of the need to win arguments without losing a part of who we are?
As Founder of Interfaith America Eboo Patel explains, thereās something romantic about a fist-in the-air approach, so much so that we often become caught up in the roles we play and the persona we adopt for ourselves. This can cause us to be perceived in ways we never intended; we can become misinterpreted, and even more disconnected to our true selves and intentions. How easy is it to ride our anger and our outrage, to chase the adrenaline of ego, the desire to be correct? Of course, it feels good to win, to ācatchā your opponent, but why does it matter? Is succeeding in a debate truly more impactful than fueling a comprehensive discussion? When we move beyond the need to be right and let go of the desire to dominate, we can make room for something far more powerful: genuine curiosity. Letting go of the allure of competitive discourse - where there are winners and losers - allows us to create more meaningful conversations where both sides can learn and grow. This is The Dilemma with Irshad Manji, a series from Big Think created in partnership with Moral Courage College.
About Irshad Manji: Irshad Manji is an award-winning educator, author, and advocate for moral courage and diversity of thought. As the founder of Moral Courage College, she equips people to engage in honest conversations across lines of difference.
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An inclusion expert explains why women of color are held back | Ruchika T. Malhotra
Saturday, November 15, 2025 ā¢ Duration 10:31
If you have hiring power, here are 6 steps to help you act on diversity.
Chapters:
0:00 The 'Lean In' Myth
2:06 Hypervisibility & Invisibility
4:44 BRIDGE: 6 Steps for Inclusion
Imposter syndrome has a long-term, damaging impact on people in the workforce, particularly women of color.
To improve inclusivity in the workplace, Ruchika T. Malhotra recommends six interpersonal habits that she calls the BRIDGE framework:
Be okay with being uncomfortable.
Reflect on what you donāt know.
Invite feedback.
Defensiveness doesnāt help.
Grow from mistakes.
Expect that change takes time.
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About Ruchika T. Malhotra:
Ruchika T. Malhotra is the author of Inclusion on Purpose: An Intersectional Approach to Creating a Culture of Belonging at Work (MIT Press). Sheās also the founder of Candour, an inclusion strategy practice. A former international business journalist, Ruchika is a regular contributor to The New York Times and Harvard Business Review.
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