Arms Control Wonk – Details, episodes & analysis

U.S. Undersecretary of State Tom DiNanno accused China of conducting decoupled, low-yield nuclear tests including on June 22, 2020.  Aaron and Jeffrey talk about seismic monitoring of nuclear tests, the role of hydronuclear testing, and what might be going on.    Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The New START treaty has expired leaving the US and Russia without a bilateral limit on offensive strategic arms for the first time in decades. There is reportedly a handshake deal not to do anything drastic for six months while the two sides talk about the outlines of a future deal, but there seems to be little agreement about what such a deal might look like.  Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the end of New START, the prospects for and constraints on a looming arms race, and why even bother with arms control treaties at all.

 

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The Trump administration appears to be willing to return to the JCPOA, so long as you do not call it the JCPOA. Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the latest back and forth with Iran and what's at stake with the return to nuclear negotiations.

Watch the video pod over on YouTube!

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Aaron and Jeffrey sat down for their first video podcast to discuss the cost of Brilliant Swarm, the name du moment of Brilliant Pebbles, aka space based missile defense. 

Watch the video pod over on YouTube!

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Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the latest news about anti-satellite warfare and why bumping and grinding in the cosmos is back en vogue.

 

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Donald Tusk — not the indulgent follow up to the perfect Fleetwood Mac Album Rumours — mused recently about the future of deterrence in Europe. The discussion reminds of the challenges of extended deterrence, the oh so very French debate about nuclear weapons and European security, and the vibe shift that has raised questions about the future US security guarantee.

Links of Note:

Building a Euro Deterrent: Easier Said Than Done, by Pranay Vaddi and Vipin Narang

https://open.substack.com/pub/strategicsimplicity/p/building-a-euro-deterrent-easier?r=1l9z0c&utm_medium=ios

 

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Russia launched an experimental, offensive missile into Ukraine, aimed at the PA Pivdenmash (former Yuzhmash) factory. This is a new world of missile combat, as this looks to be the first use of an IRBM (though not at IRBM ranges) and possibly MIRV (though conventional!) in combat. 

Jeffrey and Aaron talk about Russia's new Oreshnik missile, what it is, its relationship to the RS-26 Rubezh IRBM/ICBM/treaty-skirting missile, the Typhon-Oreshnik European strike dyad, and the looming new Euromissile crisis. 

 

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The legendary Fred Kaplan joins Jeffrey to talk about his brand new novel, A Capital Calamity. 

Fred and Jeffrey talk through the Fred's experiences in nuclear strategy and the influences on his new novel, A Capital Calamity, from JFK's EXCOMM tapes, the MX basing debate, and the Jane Austen meets Dr. Strangelove comedy of DC manners and etiquette. 

Catch one of Fred's upcoming book readings for A Capital Calamity in DC and NYC, at the Union Market Politics & Prose on Saturday, October 26th and at Community Bookstore, Park Slope, Brooklyn, on Tuesday, October 29th.  

Fred Kaplan is a national security columnist for Slate. Former Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter for Boston Globe. Author of 7 books, including The Bomb, The Wizards of Armageddon, The Insurgents (Pulitzer Prize finalist), and now, his first novel, A Capital Calamity.

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An absolutely massive mobile ballistic missile was paraded in North....

...wait sorry....

South Korea. Force of habit. 

 

Decker joins Jeffrey to talk about the absolute unit that the ROK just showed off. But don't worry, it's just an "SRBM with an eight ton warhead," nothing to see here. The team talks about messaging, move/countermoves on the Korean Peninsula, and who actually started this dang missile race to begin with. 

Audio Originally Recorded October 2nd.

 

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China tested an ICBM deep into the Pacific Ocean, instead of short-shooting it into PRC deserts. 

Decker Eveleth joins Jeffrey to talk about why this is a fascinating change in behavior for the PLA Rocket Force and PRC in general. China has only ever done this twice before, both over 40 years ago, back in 1980. Decker and Jeffrey talk about the internally signalling mechanisms, the issues with corruption in the PLARF, China's potential move to US and Russian style ICBM test notifications, strategic stability, and our favorite: absolutely gorgeous high-resolution photos of solid-fuel ICBMs.

 

Audio Originally Recorded September 27th

 

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