ARC ENERGY IDEAS – Détails, épisodes et analyse

So long summer!  Peter and Jackie are back in the studio and are discussing the energy news from the past few months. 

They kick off the podcast by discussing political developments in the United States and Canada. Then, they examine the drop in clean energy stocks over the summer and the weaker market sentiment, including the rapid decline in BC's low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credit price. Lastly, they discuss the low prices for natural gas in Alberta, which averaged only $C 0.60/GJ in August. 

Content referenced on this podcast:  

• McKinsey and Company “The Energy Transition: Where are we, really” (August 27, 2024) 
• Canary Media “US Clean Energy Investment is Soaring Thanks to Climate Law” (August 16 2024) and Clean Investment Monitor: Q2 Update  
• BC Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) price history, scroll to the Credit Market Data Section to download. 
• ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our view to 2050 (August 2024) 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

Check us out on social media: 

X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst
LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute 

Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast
Apple Podcasts 
Amazon Music
Spotify 

This week, we are joined by Nancy Southern, Chair & Chief Executive Officer of ATCO Ltd., and Chair & Chief Executive Officer of Canadian Utilities Limited, an ATCO Company. ATCO is a publicly traded company that offers innovative and sustainable solutions to customers in various sectors, such as housing, real estate, energy, water, transportation, and agriculture. 

Under Nancy's leadership, ATCO is growing the EnPower division, which focuses on energy transition and includes hydrogen, CCS, water, energy storage, solar, wind, and hydro. 

Peter and Jackie asked Nancy: How did ATCO start and what are the business lines today? How do you continue your father's legacy and the corporate culture he established? Tell us about your Alberta hydrogen project and the potential for exporting hydrogen to Asia. Update us on ATCO’s recent final investment decision (FID) on the Atlas Carbon Storage Hub in partnership with Shell. What are your views on the federal government's proposed Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) to achieve net zero electricity by 2035? What is your perspective on Alberta's proposed changes to renewable power development, electricity markets, and transmission costs? 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Canadian Government’s Clean Fuel Regulations Credit Market Report (June 2024) 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

Check us out on social media:
X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst
LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute 

Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast
Apple Podcasts
Amazon Music
Spotify 

This week our guest is Doug Hooper, Director of Policy and Regulations at Advanced Biofuels Canada. Advanced Biofuels Canada is an industry association that promotes the production and use of biofuels and renewable synthetic fuels.

One of the topics covered in the podcast is Canada’s Clean Fuels Regulation (CFR). The policy is nearing its first anniversary after coming into effect on July 1, 2023 (Canada Day). The rule requires Canadian refiners and fuel importers to reduce the carbon intensity of the gasoline and diesel sold by about 2% annually between 2023 and 2030.  By 2030, under the rule, Canada's average gasoline and diesel fuel will be 15% less carbon intensive.  Biofuels will be a major compliance source for the new rule; emissions reductions are also expected in upstream oil and gas (for domestically consumed oil) and alternative transportation fuels, such as hydrogen and electricity.

The conversation considered Canadian competitiveness with the United States for liquid biofuel production. Doug explained how the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 put a chill on investing in biofuel production facilities in Canada. The recent Canadian Federal Budget 2024 introduced some new measures to help close the gap, but will this be enough?

Research referenced in this podcast:  

• The annual report from Navius Research called “Biofuels in Canada 2023” 

 Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

 Check us out on social media:  

X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst
LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  

Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast
Apple Podcasts
Amazon Music
Spotify  

This week our guest is the Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Natural Resources.

The Canadian federal government has recently released some important energy and climate policy, including the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan and the Canadian Federal Budget 2022.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Minister Wilkinson: How achievable is Canada’s greenhouse gas reduction goal of a 40 to 45 percent reduction by 2030? What has been the response to the plan from corporate Canada? What is the reaction to the CCS tax credit and what are the remaining barriers for projects moving ahead?  
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting energy price shock, is Canada prepared to increase hydrocarbon supplies? It takes a long time to build large energy projects in Canada, how can we move faster? What is the future of critical minerals and hydrogen in Canada? 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

This week Peter and Jackie talk about the recent developments in the oil markets, including the demand concerns from China’s recent COVID lockdowns, the large Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release and OPEC plus decision to stick with a small increase in supply next month.

They also consider the longer-term with Jackie’s recent commentary “History has a Lot to Say About Today’s Energy Shock.” By revisiting the oil shocks of the 1970s, you can find some learnings that are applicable to now.

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

Last week Peter attended GLOBE Forum 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia.  GLOBE Forum is Canada’s sustainability conference. At GLOBE, Peter and Tonja Leach, the executive director of Quest interviewed Tim Gould, the Chief Energy Economist at the IEA and we include a recording of their conversation on this podcast.

Before that, Peter and Jackie discuss Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan that was introduced during GLOBE by Canada’s Environment and Climate Minister and the Prime Minister.  The plan aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Canada by 40-45% by 2030 (compared to a 2005 baseline).

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

This week our guest is Candyce Kelshall who has worked extensively with militaries and advising police forces around the world. Kelshall is currently the President of the Canadian Association for Security and Intelligence Studies (CASIS) –Vancouver, Adjunct Professor, Buckingham University Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies and Vice Chair at the Canadian Intelligence Network. Kelshall is also the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Intelligence, Conflict and Warfare and also a board member at the Canadian International Council – Vancouver.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Candyce Kelshall: Will the financial sanctions on Russia be effective in influencing Putin’s actions? What if the severity of the sanctions is increased? What are the risks if NATO becomes directly involved in the Ukraine conflict? Could the conflict go beyond Ukraine’s border? Why is Russia’s army not taking over Ukraine as quickly as expected?  What are some potential scenarios going forward? What are the risks of a Russia-China-West multi-polar world?

On the podcast, Candyce Kelshall introduces the work of the American political scientist Francis Fukuyama who is known for his book “The End of History and the Last Man” (1992) that was based on an essay “The End of History” (1989). Kelshall also introduces the Russian political strategist Alexander Dugin who authored “Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical future of Russia” (1997) that predicted a number of Russian geopolitical strategies that did occur.

See link to a recent op-ed Francis Fukuyama in the Financial Post “Francis Fukuyama: Putin’s War on the Liberal Order.”

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

On this week’s podcast, we interview Ian Anderson, the President and CEO of Trans Mountain Corporation on how the pipeline expansion project is progressing. The Trans Mountain Expansion Project is expected to transport oil to Canada’s west coast by late 2023.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Ian Anderson: Are the legal challenges for the project done? What is the status of construction? How much of the workforce is Indigenous? Did the BC floods last fall set the project back? In the most recent update, why did project costs almost double? Who pays for the increased costs? Do you expect other large oil pipelines to be built in North America?  Does Russia’s war in the Ukraine change anything?

Peter and Jackie also extend their congratulations to Ian on his retirement starting in April 2022 and thank Ian for his incredible dedication and leadership on this critically important project for Canada.

To learn more about the Trans Mountain Expansion project visit: https://www.transmountain.com/project-overview

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

This week Peter and Jackie talk about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  What is the current situation with energy trade flows and markets due to the conflict? How much oil and gas supply could be cut off and what are the alternatives? Could Canadian energy supply help?  Will high oil prices and geopolitical concerns accelerate the energy transition?

Also discussed: 

• Peter’s recent commentary titled “Cold War, Inflation and Spiking Oil Prices: Q&A Through Déjà vu.” 
• The IPCC’s new report “Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.” 
• A study that concludes that low carbon gas supply in British Columbia could be much larger than previously understood “BC Renewable and Low-Carbon Gas Supply Potential.”

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

On this episode we welcome Murray Mullen, President and CEO of Mullen Group to the podcast. The Mullen group is one of Canada’s largest logistics providers.

Here are some of the questions we asked Murray:  What is the situation today with COVID related supply chain bottlenecks? Is there a shortage of truck drivers? How has online shopping impacted supply chain issues? What is your outlook for oil and gas oilfield service activity in Canada? What is realistic for decarbonizing the trucking feet?

To learn more about Mullen Group visit: https://www.mullen-group.com/

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/