So long summer!  Peter and Jackie are back in the studio and are discussing the energy news from the past few months. 

They kick off the podcast by discussing political developments in the United States and Canada. Then, they examine the drop in clean energy stocks over the summer and the weaker market sentiment, including the rapid decline in BC's low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credit price. Lastly, they discuss the low prices for natural gas in Alberta, which averaged only $C 0.60/GJ in August. 

Content referenced on this podcast:  

• McKinsey and Company “The Energy Transition: Where are we, really” (August 27, 2024) 
• Canary Media “US Clean Energy Investment is Soaring Thanks to Climate Law” (August 16 2024) and Clean Investment Monitor: Q2 Update  
• BC Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) price history, scroll to the Credit Market Data Section to download. 
• ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our view to 2050 (August 2024) 

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This week, we are joined by Nancy Southern, Chair & Chief Executive Officer of ATCO Ltd., and Chair & Chief Executive Officer of Canadian Utilities Limited, an ATCO Company. ATCO is a publicly traded company that offers innovative and sustainable solutions to customers in various sectors, such as housing, real estate, energy, water, transportation, and agriculture. 

Under Nancy's leadership, ATCO is growing the EnPower division, which focuses on energy transition and includes hydrogen, CCS, water, energy storage, solar, wind, and hydro. 

Peter and Jackie asked Nancy: How did ATCO start and what are the business lines today? How do you continue your father's legacy and the corporate culture he established? Tell us about your Alberta hydrogen project and the potential for exporting hydrogen to Asia. Update us on ATCO’s recent final investment decision (FID) on the Atlas Carbon Storage Hub in partnership with Shell. What are your views on the federal government's proposed Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) to achieve net zero electricity by 2035? What is your perspective on Alberta's proposed changes to renewable power development, electricity markets, and transmission costs? 

Content referenced in this podcast: 

• Canadian Government’s Clean Fuel Regulations Credit Market Report (June 2024) 

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This week our guest is Doug Hooper, Director of Policy and Regulations at Advanced Biofuels Canada. Advanced Biofuels Canada is an industry association that promotes the production and use of biofuels and renewable synthetic fuels.

One of the topics covered in the podcast is Canada’s Clean Fuels Regulation (CFR). The policy is nearing its first anniversary after coming into effect on July 1, 2023 (Canada Day). The rule requires Canadian refiners and fuel importers to reduce the carbon intensity of the gasoline and diesel sold by about 2% annually between 2023 and 2030.  By 2030, under the rule, Canada's average gasoline and diesel fuel will be 15% less carbon intensive.  Biofuels will be a major compliance source for the new rule; emissions reductions are also expected in upstream oil and gas (for domestically consumed oil) and alternative transportation fuels, such as hydrogen and electricity.

The conversation considered Canadian competitiveness with the United States for liquid biofuel production. Doug explained how the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 put a chill on investing in biofuel production facilities in Canada. The recent Canadian Federal Budget 2024 introduced some new measures to help close the gap, but will this be enough?

Research referenced in this podcast:  

• The annual report from Navius Research called “Biofuels in Canada 2023” 

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This week our guest is the Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Natural Resources.

The Canadian federal government has recently released some important energy and climate policy, including the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan and the Canadian Federal Budget 2022.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Minister Wilkinson: How achievable is Canada’s greenhouse gas reduction goal of a 40 to 45 percent reduction by 2030? What has been the response to the plan from corporate Canada? What is the reaction to the CCS tax credit and what are the remaining barriers for projects moving ahead?  
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting energy price shock, is Canada prepared to increase hydrocarbon supplies? It takes a long time to build large energy projects in Canada, how can we move faster? What is the future of critical minerals and hydrogen in Canada? 

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This week Peter and Jackie talk about the recent developments in the oil markets, including the demand concerns from China’s recent COVID lockdowns, the large Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release and OPEC plus decision to stick with a small increase in supply next month.

They also consider the longer-term with Jackie’s recent commentary “History has a Lot to Say About Today’s Energy Shock.” By revisiting the oil shocks of the 1970s, you can find some learnings that are applicable to now.

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Last week Peter attended GLOBE Forum 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia.  GLOBE Forum is Canada’s sustainability conference. At GLOBE, Peter and Tonja Leach, the executive director of Quest interviewed Tim Gould, the Chief Energy Economist at the IEA and we include a recording of their conversation on this podcast.

Before that, Peter and Jackie discuss Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan that was introduced during GLOBE by Canada’s Environment and Climate Minister and the Prime Minister.  The plan aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Canada by 40-45% by 2030 (compared to a 2005 baseline).

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This week our guest is Candyce Kelshall who has worked extensively with militaries and advising police forces around the world. Kelshall is currently the President of the Canadian Association for Security and Intelligence Studies (CASIS) –Vancouver, Adjunct Professor, Buckingham University Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies and Vice Chair at the Canadian Intelligence Network. Kelshall is also the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Intelligence, Conflict and Warfare and also a board member at the Canadian International Council – Vancouver.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Candyce Kelshall: Will the financial sanctions on Russia be effective in influencing Putin’s actions? What if the severity of the sanctions is increased? What are the risks if NATO becomes directly involved in the Ukraine conflict? Could the conflict go beyond Ukraine’s border? Why is Russia’s army not taking over Ukraine as quickly as expected?  What are some potential scenarios going forward? What are the risks of a Russia-China-West multi-polar world?

On the podcast, Candyce Kelshall introduces the work of the American political scientist Francis Fukuyama who is known for his book “The End of History and the Last Man” (1992) that was based on an essay “The End of History” (1989). Kelshall also introduces the Russian political strategist Alexander Dugin who authored “Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical future of Russia” (1997) that predicted a number of Russian geopolitical strategies that did occur.

See link to a recent op-ed Francis Fukuyama in the Financial Post “Francis Fukuyama: Putin’s War on the Liberal Order.”

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On this week’s podcast, we interview Ian Anderson, the President and CEO of Trans Mountain Corporation on how the pipeline expansion project is progressing. The Trans Mountain Expansion Project is expected to transport oil to Canada’s west coast by late 2023.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Ian Anderson: Are the legal challenges for the project done? What is the status of construction? How much of the workforce is Indigenous? Did the BC floods last fall set the project back? In the most recent update, why did project costs almost double? Who pays for the increased costs? Do you expect other large oil pipelines to be built in North America?  Does Russia’s war in the Ukraine change anything?

Peter and Jackie also extend their congratulations to Ian on his retirement starting in April 2022 and thank Ian for his incredible dedication and leadership on this critically important project for Canada.

To learn more about the Trans Mountain Expansion project visit: https://www.transmountain.com/project-overview

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This week Peter and Jackie talk about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  What is the current situation with energy trade flows and markets due to the conflict? How much oil and gas supply could be cut off and what are the alternatives? Could Canadian energy supply help?  Will high oil prices and geopolitical concerns accelerate the energy transition?

Also discussed: 

• Peter’s recent commentary titled “Cold War, Inflation and Spiking Oil Prices: Q&A Through Déjà vu.” 
• The IPCC’s new report “Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.” 
• A study that concludes that low carbon gas supply in British Columbia could be much larger than previously understood “BC Renewable and Low-Carbon Gas Supply Potential.”

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On this episode we welcome Murray Mullen, President and CEO of Mullen Group to the podcast. The Mullen group is one of Canada’s largest logistics providers.

Here are some of the questions we asked Murray:  What is the situation today with COVID related supply chain bottlenecks? Is there a shortage of truck drivers? How has online shopping impacted supply chain issues? What is your outlook for oil and gas oilfield service activity in Canada? What is realistic for decarbonizing the trucking feet?

To learn more about Mullen Group visit: https://www.mullen-group.com/

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This week Tyler Bryant, Strategic Advisor, Climate and Energy at FortisBC joins the podcast.  FortisBC delivers renewable energy, natural gas and electricity to customers in British Columbia. Here are some of the questions we asked Tyler:  What are the challenges of electrifying heating in Canada? What is renewable natural gas? How much renewable natural gas is possible? What is the potential carbon intensity reduction of gaseous fuels by blending hydrogen and renewable natural gas? Do you agree with cities in the US and Canada banning new natural gas connections?

They also discuss a recent commentary by Jackie titled “Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Reconsider the Future of Natural Gas.”

To learn more about FortisBC's renewable natural gas offering: https://www.fortisbc.com/services/sustainable-energy-options/renewable-natural-gas

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With WTI oil prices over $90/B, Peter and Jackie update podcast listeners on the most recent oil market fundamentals. As a result of these higher prices, ARC has increased its estimates for Canadian industry revenue and cash flows.

Finally, they discuss Jackie’s recent commentary “Turn out  the lights and other lessons on electricity consumption.”  This article was originally published  for Let’s Talk Science and the Royal Society of Canada who have partnered to provide coverage on STEM programs and learning. To read other articles visit the “Let’s Talk Science” page at the Globe and Mail.

To see the most current Western Canadian oil and gas drilling activity , view the ARC Energy Charts: Chart 35 is the Canadian gas drilling activity and Chart 37 is the oil drilling activity.  The last page of the Energy Charts shows ARC’s estimates for Canadian industry metrics.

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This week we would like to share another podcast with you, called “Energy vs Climate.” The three hosts are David Keith, Sara Hastings-Simon and Ed Whittingham. Every two weeks the trio, along with their guests, break down the trade-offs and hard truths of the energy transition in Alberta, Canada, and beyond. This episode is a discussion from October 2021 on the challenges of decarbonizing the Aviation sector with guest Dr. Steven Barrett of MIT’s Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics. If you like ARC Energy Ideas, we think you will also enjoy this podcast. We hope you find this episode insightful.

To learn more about the podcast and to subscribe, visit their website: https://www.energyvsclimate.com/

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Jackie and Peter provide an update on ESG this week on the podcast.  Has the anti-ESG movement started to change companies' reporting and actions?   To answer this question, they reviewed some articles and research that point to the recent loss of momentum and profile for the ESG movement.  There have also been examples of companies exiting sustainability-focused organizations. While sustainability may have peaked in these regards, it is not going away. Companies continue to report on their sustainability performance and set goals for improvement. Mitigating and monitoring the risk associated with ESG-related issues is also important. 

Content Referenced in this Podcast: 

• Nat Bullard's website and 200-page annual slide deck 
• Catalyst w/ Shayle Kann podcast with Nat Bullard: 2024 trends, part 2: ESG, carbon certifications, curtailment, and AI (February 2024) 
• The Wall Street Journal: Diversity goals are disappearing from companies’ annual reports (April 2024) 
• GreenBiz: Microsoft, P&G, Unilever, and Walmart among 239 companies to miss net-zero deadline (March 2024) 
• Globe and Mail: Emissions standards group roiled by controversy after opening door to offsets (April 2024) 
• Financial Times: Two pension funds quit Mark Carney’s green alliance (September 2022) 
• Bank of America reneged on a commitment to stop financing new coal mines and coal power plants (February 2024) 

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Brent oil price is near $90/B now and WTI is not far behind. Peter and Jackie discuss the latest price moves and drivers. They also muse over the return of geopolitical tensions in the oil markets. While geopolitics have historically been a significant factor in the oil markets and price formation, over the past decade the impact has been more muted.

Finally, they review the volatile equity markets so far in 2022. Energy transition names have been under pressure while oil and gas equities have rallied.

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This week Catherine Cobden joins our podcast. Catherine is the President and CEO of the Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA). Canadian steel is already some of the lowest carbon product in the world and the industry has announced goals to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.

Here are some of the questions we asked Catherine: What are some of the technologies that can reduce the greenhouse gas emissions for producing steel? How advanced are these low carbon processes now? The Canadian federal government has a stated goal to reduce emissions between 40 and 45% by 2030, is this level of reduction realistic for the steel industry in that timeframe?

Read more on CSPA’s goal to achieve net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, in their “Climate Call to Action.”

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On this episode, Peter and Jackie review the ARC Energy Research Institute’s recently released outlook for the Canadian oil and gas economy for 2022.  See the last page of our weekly ARC Energy Charts publication to review the 2022 estimate of revenue, cash flow and other metrics here.

They also discuss a recent commentary by Peter titled “Meet the New Boom, Different from the Last Boom” that lists the many reasons why this oil bull run is different than past cycles.

Finally, they review the new IEA report on Canada’s energy policies. The report provides recommendations on how the country can effectively manage its energy sector to achieve Canada’s GHG emission reduction goals. Download the IEA Canada 2022 Report here.

Replay the IEA Canada  2022 Report launch video here.

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Peter and Jackie start the year off by introducing seven topics that are likely to dominate energy and climate discussions in 2022:

•  Oil Price 
• Geopolitics 
• Elections 
• Inflation and the Economy 
• Sustainable Finance 
• Clean Energy Spending 
• Energy and Climate Policy in the US and Canada

See Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s mandate letters: Minister of Environment and Climate Change and Minister of Natural Resources.

Learn more about the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) and read “Building a Private Finance System for Net Zero.”

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On this week’s podcast we look back on the big themes that shaped 2021 by reviewing our past podcasts. Peter and Jackie also revisit their 2021 predictions made at the start of the year to see how well they did.

View the ARC SnapChart on the Global EV Sales Data for 2021: Strong Showing for EV Sales in 2021

View the report on the economic potential of the energy transition for Alberta commissioned by Calgary Economic Development and Edmonton Global “Alberta Energy Transition.”

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This week our guest is Robert Hornung, the founding President and CEO of the Canadian Renewable Energy Association (CanREA). The industry group is the voice for wind energy, solar energy and energy storage solutions in Canada.  Recently CanREA released  "Powering Canada's Journey to Net-Zero: CanREA's 2050 Vision" which sets an aspiration for Canada’s wind and solar capacity to increase 10-fold by 2050.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Robert:  What are the barriers to achieving CanREA's vision for wind, solar and energy storage growth in Canada? Do you expect the Liberal government will move forward on plans for a net-zero electrical grid by 2035?  Are Canadians accepting of new solar and wind projects in their communities? Do you think a federal grid counsel could advance the East-West grid in Canada?

Visit CanREA's website: https://renewablesassociation.ca/

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Last Friday, November 26, oil prices dropped $US 10/B after a new COVID variant named Omicron was discovered. The same day, the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) made a historic decision to deny Enbridge’s application to enter into long-term contracts for 90% of the Mainline oil pipeline.

Jackie and Peter discuss the volatile oil markets, the possible impacts to global oil demand and the significance of the CER’s decision to keep Canada’s dominant pipeline open access for all.

View the CER's full decision on the Enbridge Mainline Contracting Application (link).

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This week our guest is Andrew Weaver. He is a climate scientist, professor at the University of Victoria, and former leader of the British Columbia Green Party. Here are some of the questions we asked Andrew: Why did you decide to become a politician? Is climate change contributing to BC’s extreme weather this year? How obtainable is the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5ºC? You have publicly supported the Liberal and BC climate plans, why did you face some criticism for this support? Why are you not supportive of BC LNG?

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This week Larry Burns joins our podcast. Larry is a Business Advisor on Mobility, Logistics, Manufacturing, Energy and Innovation—in short, he is a guru in the area of self-driving vehicles and mobility.

Here are some of the questions we asked Larry:  What level of autonomous driving has been achieved? Do people want fully autonomous vehicles? How would self-driving work for long distance heavy hauling? What about the “last mile” deliveries? Can self-driving work in extreme weather conditions, like the Canadian winter? How far in the future are flying taxis?

To connect with Larry Burns, visit his website: lawrencedburns.org

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We start this week’s podcast sharing thoughts on the first week of the COP26 climate conference currently underway in Glasgow, Scotland. Highlights include the major goals of the conference and the announcement of a major initiative to mobilize private finance led by Mark Carney. We also cover the recent price inflation for oil and gas, including OPEC+, US shale oil and the importance of winter weather.

See Morgan Brazilian’s article “Make the COP Boring Again.”

Learn more about the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero and read “Building a Private Finance System for Net Zero.”

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The 2024 Canadian Federal Budget was released on April 16th. This year’s budget is focused on affordability, housing, and spending on social programs such as pharmaceutical care, daycare, and dentist care. 

 Peter and Jackie discuss the budget, including the size of the deficit and the planned increase in capital gains taxes. They also cover energy-related updates from the budget, such as changes to investment tax credit programs (ITCs), adjustments to the green home subsidy, and the announcement of an Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program. They also mention that the Canada Growth Fund, which has pledged $7 billion to carbon markets, now aims to provide more off-the-shelf support for decarbonization projects while continuing to support bespoke opportunities. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) also plans to collaborate with provinces to improve carbon markets. The budget includes commitments to develop guidelines for investing in green and decarbonization projects (called a taxonomy); it also encourages Canadian pension funds to invest more in Canada, with a working group set up to explore this further. 

 Content referenced in this episode: 

• Canada Budget 2024  
•  RBC Report on if Canada's AAA credit rating is at risk
• Trevor Tombe: Why Raising Capital Gains Taxes Make Sense - Yes, Really (April 17, 2024, The Hub) 
• Senior Business Leaders Support Proposal Asking Pension Funds to Invest More in Canada (March 6, 2024, Globe and Mail) 
• Canada Energy Transition Taxonomy Roadmap (September 2022) by the Sustainable Finance Action Council (SFAC). Note that SFAC has submitted this roadmap, and it is not the official position of the Government of Canada.   

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This week, Dr. Arthur Turrell, author of the recently published book “The Star Builders – Nuclear Fusion and the Race to Power the Planet” joins the podcast. Arthur has a PhD in plasma physics and writes about fusion energy in a way that makes sense for the average person.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Arthur: What are the advantages of fusion energy? How does it differ from nuclear fission? The National Ignition Facility (NIF) made global news this past summer breaking the previous records for fusion energy, why was this result significant? Realistically, how long before nuclear fusion is a commercial reality?

To learn more about Arthur Turrell, visit his homepage: http://aeturrell.com/

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On this week’s episode we interview Barbara Zvan, inaugural President and CEO of the University Pension Plan in Ontario. Barb is recognized as a leading voice on sustainable investing and was appointed to  the Canadian Government’s Expert Panel on Sustainable Finance that released recommendations for increasing the amount of sustainable investment in Canada in 2019.

Barbara tell us about a new initiative, called Climate Engagement Canada (CEC). CEC is a group of Canadian investors with $3 trillion of assets under management that will ask Canadian companies to be part of a just transition to net zero emissions. The initiative has leveraged Barbara’s leadership along with involvement from UN PRI, RIA Canada, SHARE and CERES. Barbara also provided an update on other sustainable finance activities in Canada, including the development of a Canadian taxonomy for green investing and new diversity initiatives.

To learn more about Climate Engagement Canada (CEC), visit their website: https://climateengagement.ca/

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This week, Matthew J. Sagers, Vice President at IHS Markit and head of the Russian and Caspian Energy Advisory service joins the podcast. Here are some of the questions we asked Matt Sagers: Why is the Nord Stream 2 pipeline so controversial? Why isn’t Russia ramping-up its natural gas exports to help Europe? Will the high prices for energy now accelerate the energy transition or slow it down? How do Russian oil and gas companies rate for ESG? Could Russia increase its oil production?

To learn more about Matthew J. Sagers and connect, check out his page on the IHS Markit website.

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In this week’s podcast, Peter and Jackie talk about why the lack of charging infrastructure in North America is holding back the adoption of electric vehicles (EV). The charging problem is amplified because Canada and the United States do not mandate a standard electrical plug-in.

Read Jackie’s commentary “Canada EV Mass Adoption: Are We There Yet?”

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Europe is heading into winter with historically low inventories of natural gas. The scarcity has driven up the global prices of every type of energy, including natural gas, coal and oil. Despite the rising commodity prices, energy supply has not been growing.

On this week’s podcast, Jackie and Peter discuss the European energy crisis and the lessons it provides for energy security and energy transition. They also cover the results of the recent Canadian federal election and what can be expected for energy and climate policy in Canada.

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On this week’s Podcast, Jackie and Peter discuss how inflation and affordability have come into the spotlight. How is inflation measured and how much has it increased? What is the connection between oil price and inflation? And, if a more sustained period of inflation were to occur, what are the implications?

See Peter’s recent commentary “A New Episode of the Oil Cycle: Inflation.”

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As you got out of bed this morning and flicked on the lights and coffee maker, how many of you thought about where the electricity came from? Scott Thon, the CEO of AltaLink and President and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Energy Canada is our guest this week. Scott helps explain what is going on with the grids and wires we rely on, today and in the future. Here are some of the questions we asked Scott: What is the current state of power generation and grids, especially in Alberta? What are the pros and cons of centralized versus decentralized power generation systems? How will electricity systems change in the pursuit of net zero emissions?

To learn more about AltaLink, see the website: https://www.altalink.ca/

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Few in Canada know the pioneering work of Geoffrey Ballard and his Vancouver based fuel cell company called Ballard Power. Founded in 1979, it’s now recognized as one of the pre-eminent manufacturers of fuel cells in the world today.

This week, the President & CEO of Ballard Power, Randy MacEwen joins our podcast. Here are some of the questions we asked Randy MacEwen: What is Ballard’s fuel cell technology, products and markets? How do fuel cells compare with batteries for mobility? There have been ups and downs with hydrogen in the past, is this time different?  What might mobility look like in the mid-2030s?

To learn more about Ballard Power, see the website: https://www.ballard.com/

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The ARC podcast is back! This week we cover some of the big news over the summer break, including Canada’s upcoming federal election, the extreme weather experienced this past summer and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) sixth climate report. Canadians head to the polls on September 20th in the federal election. What are the big election issues? What is expected for climate and energy?

During a summer of extreme weather, the IPCC issued their Sixth Climate Assessment Report report in August. Peter and Jackie discuss the key findings, including the potential implications for future investment and government policy.

See the NASA global fire map: https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@0.0,0.0,3z

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In this episode we showcase Peter’s new Energyphile story “Reinventing the Wheel”. What can companies facing radical disruption today learn from history? The McLaughlin Carriage Company was a leader in high-end carriages. Yet at the peak of its game, it started manufacturing automobiles. It’s a rare company that would, or could, make such a pivot — and so successfully. McLaughlin went on to become General Motors Canada.

Energyphile is part museum, part library and part business school, to read and hear all of Peter’s stories visit: https://energyphile.org/stories/

The Energyphile stories are also available on numerous podcast apps, including Apple iTunes Podcasts and Spotify.

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The threat of a wider Middle East war is increasing. Over the past weekend, Iran attacked Israel with missiles and drones in retaliation for Israel’s suspected strike on Iran's embassy in Syria. This week, our guest, Raoul LeBlanc, Vice President, Energy, S&P Global Commodity Insights, explains why oil prices have increased over the past few months, including the impact of the growing conflict in the Middle East, OPEC+, and US shale oil growth. 

Jackie and Peter also asked Raoul about recent research by Prof. Robert Howarth from Cornell University. The paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, concludes that US LNG could be comparable to, or even worse than, coal from a GHG emissions perspective when methane leaking is considered. A BNN article reported that Howarth’s paper influenced President Biden’s pause on LNG approvals.  

Finally, Raoul explains the drivers for US oil and gas producers' recent mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and if this trend could come to Canada. 

Content referenced in this podcast:  

• How One Scientist Influenced Biden’s Pause on LNG Approvals (BNN Bloomberg, Feb 29, 2024) 
• The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Exported from the United States by Robert W. Howarth, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University (version is not final and it is currently in a peer review process; original version submitted October 2023, revised version submitted March 2024) 

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Responding to a very large number of carbon sequestration inquiries, the Alberta Government issued an Information Letter that proposes a centralized hub model for storing carbon in the province.

This week, Tristan Goodman, the President of the Explorers and Producers Association of Canada (EPAC) joins the podcast to offer his perspective on Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) policy. In addition to central hubs, EPAC proposes that Alberta consider a distributed model for storing carbon throughout the province.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Tristan:  What are the advantages of considering distributed carbon storage, in addition to centralized hubs? What types of projects are better suited for a distributed model?  Are CCUS projects associated with Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) or depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs treated differently than other projects? How are these issues being managed in the United States?

Link to Alberta Government’s May 12, 2021 Information Letter on Carbon Sequestration Tenure Management

To learn more about EPAC, visit the website: https://www.explorersandproducers.ca/

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As the world embarks on re-piping and re-wiring energy systems in the pursuit of decarbonization, the plan should be to make the future energy infrastructure more secure than the past. This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter review several energy security learnings from history. In the pursuit of the best economics, often energy security is ignored.  These vulnerabilities create problems later on.

One example is the current situation with Enbridge Line 5, where the state of Michigan is trying to stop the pipe from operating. Other examples include the Texas Power outage, the cyber attack on the Colonial pipeline, and Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas.

Next we deliberate about the future,  discussing Peter’s recent commentary “Suggestions for a More Energy Secure Future.”

Other reading referenced in the podcast from Energyphile.org: 

• The “Long Way Round” is a story about how Eastern Canada had to rely on Canadian oil shipped from the west and around the continent during the 1970s Oil Embargo.  Use this link to hear the audio file and read the story. 
• A vignette with a historical utility bill, the back of it exemplifies what people demand of their energy “Cheapest, Safest, Cleanest, Quickest.”

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Canadian oil sands companies are typically rivals, but now they have announced a collective project for achieving net zero GHG emissions by 2050. Producers that account for 90% of oil sands production - Canadian Natural Resources, Cenovus Energy, Imperial, MEG Energy and Suncor Energy - have announced the “Oil Sands Pathways to Net Zero” initiative.

This week, our guests –  Rhona DelFrari, Chief Sustainability Officer and Senior Vice-President, Stakeholder Engagement at Cenovus and Pam McIntyre, Senior Vice-President, Safety, Risk Management and Innovation and Canadian Natural Resources - join the podcast. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked our guests: Explain the carbon capture system you envision, that spans a big geographical area from Fort McMurray to Cold Lake? Beyond CCUS, what other technology pathways are included? What are the cost expectations for the initiative?  Who will pay?  How does net zero oil sands benefit the Canadian economy?

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Solar is starting to shine in Canada. Five utility scale solar projects have been announced in Alberta so far this year. Residential solar should benefit from newly announced federal government incentives.

This week Nicholas Gall, the Director of Distributed Energy Resources at the Canadian Renewable Energy Association (CanREA) joins the podcast. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Nicholas:  What is the size of the solar market  in Canada now? Why is Alberta getting all of these new solar projects?  Why not other provinces?  How will future costs and technology evolve? What are the federal government’s incentives for residential solar? And, finally, should Peter install solar panels on his roof?

See the IEA report: “National Survey Report of PV Power Applications in Canada (2019)” jointly authored by Natural Resources Canada, CanmetEnergy and CanREA.

To learn more about CanREA visit their website: https://renewablesassociation.ca/

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This past week, Shell, Exxon and Chevron were all in the headlines as these three supermajors are being pushed, in the boardroom and courtroom, to transition more quickly towards a low carbon future. Adding to the pressure, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released their much-anticipated Net Zero 2050 Scenario, stating that no new oil and gas fields beyond those committed in 2021 are needed.

On this week’s podcast, we review the IEA Net Zero 2050 Scenario. How fast does oil and gas production need to decline? Is the Canadian oil industry compliant with “no new oil and gas fields”? What is the growth of clean energy in this scenario? What has been the reaction?

Download the IEA Report at https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050

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Canada is a global leader in Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS), with four large-scale operating  projects. However, compared to the United States, new investment in Canada is not keeping pace.

This week our guest is Beth (Hardy) Valiaho, Vice President, Strategy & Stakeholder Relations at the International CCS Knowledge Centre. Beth tells us about the state of CCUS in Canada and our competitive position. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked her: How are carbon dioxide emissions captured and stored? Is CCUS economic? What are the new Canadian policies that are supportive of CCUS, including the Clean Fuel Standard (CFS), the $170/tonne carbon tax and the proposed Canadian tax credit? How do we compare to the United States with respect to policy?

To learn more about the International CCS Knowledge Centre, visit their website: https://ccsknowledge.com/
Provide feedback on future policy by taking the CCS Knowledge Centre’s survey: https://ccsknowledge.com/news/canadas-budget-2021-carbon-capture-and-storage
Read the CCS Knowledge Centre’s recent report on incenting large scale CCS in Canada: https://ccsknowledge.com/initiatives/incentivizing-large-scale-ccs

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The Canadian Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) will come into force next year with the objective of lowering the carbon intensity of fuels, such as gasoline and diesel. This week David Schick, Western Canadian Vice President from the Canadian Fuels Association joins the podcast to talk about the future, including learnings from British Columbia’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) that has been in place for a decade.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked David: Has BC’s LCFS reduced the GHG intensity of gasoline and diesel? Has the policy increased BC’s reliance on low carbon fuel imports, or has it created new investment in domestic production capacity? How will Canadian fuels change by 2050? What are Canada’s inherent advantages for establishing a domestic low carbon fuels industry?

To learn more about the Canadian Fuels Association, visit: https://www.canadianfuels.ca/

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Housing prices in Canada are heating up again, and so are carbon taxes. In a price war, home energy efficiency may not be top-of-mind for buyers, but with rising carbon taxes maybe it should be.

This week Jackie and Peter talk energy efficiency, including: How important is energy efficiency for achieving a low carbon future? What are the government incentives for energy efficiency?  Will higher carbon taxes reduce the historic barriers for investing in energy efficiency? What is a heat pump?  Are new business opportunities emerging for deploying efficiency?

See Peter’s recent commentary “Location, Location, Inefficiency.”

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In the past week, Canada and the United States committed to more ambitious GHG emission reduction targets, the Canadian government announced a historic budget, and the Bank of Canada provided an economic outlook.

This week, John Stackhouse, Senior Vice President, Office of the RBC CEO, joined the podcast to discuss the recent announcements. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked John:  What is RBC’s outlook for the Canadian economy? What is your reaction to the Canadian budget?   Should Canadians be concerned by the federal debt and the potential for inflation? What is your outlook for Canadian oil and gas considering these aggressive GHG emission reduction goals? How will all these reductions be financed? How is ESG being used in corporate lending decisions? What is the definition of green finance, are reductions in oil and gas emissions included?

Check out John Stackhouse’s recent book “Planet Canada: How Our Expats are Shaping the Future”

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President Biden’s climate plans are starting to come into focus. The Whitehouse released “The American Jobs Plan” a few weeks ago, which included about $1 trillion of spending for clean energy and climate initiatives. The Whitehouse is also hosting a virtual Climate Summit this week with dozens of world leaders, and the United States is expected to announce an ambitious emissions reduction target for 2030.

This week, our guest is Samantha Gross, Director of Energy Security and Climate Initiatives at the Brookings Institution, a nonprofit public policy organization based in Washington, DC. Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked: What is the significance of this week’s Whitehouse Climate Summit? What are the top areas of clean energy spending in President Biden’s “American Jobs Plan”? What other policies may still be forthcoming – carbon tax, clean fuel standards, border adjustment taxes?  What should the US oil and gas industry expect?

To connect with Samantha Gross at the Brooking Institution, and to read her recent blogs and research, visit:  https://www.brookings.edu/experts/samantha-gross/

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This week on the podcast, our guest is Rebecca Lindland, Senior Director of Industry Data and Insights at Cars Commerce. Cars Commerce has a platform to simplify the next generation of automotive retail, including Cars.com, AccuTrade, Dealer Inspire, and coming soon, Cars Commerce Media Network.

Rebecca is a highly respected expert in the automotive industry. She shares her views on the rise of plug-in hybrids, the recent headwinds for pure electric cars, and new auto technology.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rebecca: How is the auto industry doing now, and is it generally profitable?  Explain the difference between pure-electric, plug-in hybrid, and traditional hybrids. Why are sales of hybrid vehicles increasing in the US?  Do the new US EPA auto rules for increasing electric technology include hybrids? Is the higher price of plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles a barrier to sales? Why are Tesla’s sales slowing? Explain BYD's success in 2023 and if they could come to North America.  Do you think solid-state batteries, if they become available, will increase EV adoption rates? Are self-driving electric cars just delayed, or are they no longer likely?  

Other content referenced in this podcast: 

• NYT article from January 2024:  “Hybrid Cars Enjoy a Renaissance and All Electric Sales Slow”  
• Artist of Rebecca’s office car art: Lyn Hiner Studio

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LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  

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This week Jackie and Peter take on listener EV questions and comments. Here are some of the questions they tackled: Are EVs impacting oil demand and markets? Is degrading battery life a risk of EV ownership? How much range is lost due to cold weather? How do the economics of leasing vs buying compare? What about people without the luxury of a garage with adequate electrical capacity? And, if the energy for manufacturing the cars is factored in, are EVs still the lower GHG emissions option?

Link to the IEA study that compares lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions over ten year lifetime, comparing EVs to ICE, as well as other technologies.

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LNG Canada’s $40 billion megaproject is taking shape. The project is the largest private sector investment ever made in Canada, and marks the birth of a new export industry. This week, the CEO of LNG Canada, Peter Zebedee joins the podcast to provide an update on the construction underway in Kitimat, British Columbia.

Here are some of the questions we asked Peter Zebedee: What is the current long-term outlook for LNG demand? Is it possible for an LNG facility to be net-zero emissions? How would you describe support from Indigenous peoples impacted by the project? What is the state of the construction now, and how has COVID impacted progress?

View current pictures of LNG Canada's construction site: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/pictures-from-lng-canada/
See LNG Canada’s website: https://www.lngcanada.ca/Link to Shell LNG Outlook 2021.

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Stock prices of companies in the clean energy space have rocketed-up over the past year. Even considering the recent pullback, most stocks are still up significantly. Clean energy investing is not new. There have been a few cycles in the past that have generally not ended well for investors. This week, Peter and Jackie discuss today’s market dynamics and what may have changed compared with the past.

The mentioned article on direct air capture, including the estimated price for removing carbon dioxide at $US 250/tonne can be found here: “The Potential for Carbon Capture Tech is Captivating.”

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