Conor Maguire, Founder and Editor of the Value Situations Newsletter, joins the podcast for his third appearance to share his thesis on Dowlais Group Plc (DWL), a portfolio of market leading, high-technology engineering businesses that advance the world's transition to sustainable vehicles.

For more information about Conor Maguire and Value Situations Substack: https://valuesits.substack.com/

DWL write up on Value Situations Newsletter: https://valuesits.substack.com/p/dowlais-spinning-wheels

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:15] What is Dowlais Group Plc (DWL) and why are they interesting to Conor

[9:18] What is Conor seeing about Dowlais that the market is missing

[16:42] Dowlais recent history

[21:45] Trends in the auto industry

[27:43] Bidding war time from 2018

[32:29] Margin expansion

[38:03] Management and incentive structure

[49:08] Capital allocation scenarios

[53:25] Who's the buyer of Powdermet

[58:50] Cyclicality of Powdermet business?

[1:02:16] Final thoughts on Dowlais / one more question about goodwill on the balance sheet

Episode sponsor: Tegus

If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.

What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.

The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.

To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.

Ross Levin, Director of Research at Arbiter Partners, joins the podcast for the second time to discuss betting on French compounding legend, Vincent Bolloré: Bolloré SE and Compagnie de l'Odet.

For more information about Arbiter Partners, please visit: ⁠https://arbiterpartners.net/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:36] What are Bolloré SE and Compagnie de l'Odet and why are they interesting to Ross

[12:18] Asset value / share count

[16:46] Why (in Ross' opinion) is this an alpha opportunity and why now

[23:03] Betting on compounding legend, Vincent Bolloré

[27:40] Risk of getting "Icahn'd"

[32:20] Share re-purchases / capital allocation

[39:31] French regulatory risk

[41:41] What's the path for l'Odet

[45:42] Vivendi

[50:38] Anything else that investors should be looking out for here? Follow on re: capital allocation scenarios

[54:57] Ross' quick thoughts on CCIs and France overall

Episode sponsor: Tegus

If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.

What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.

The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.

To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.

Alex Feng and Jason Quan from Rome Capital Limited join the podcast to discuss their thesis on Samsonite International (1910.HK), a leader in the global lifestyle bag industry and the world's best-known and largest travel luggage company.

Alex Feng's write-up on Samsonite: https://alexfeng.substack.com/p/samsonite-1910-hk-another-homecoming

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Ycharts

[1:51] Alex Feng, Jason Quan and Rome Capital's backgrounds

[3:15] Overview of Samsonite and why it's interesting to Alex and Jason

[6:00] What is the average market participant missing with Samsonite

[9:25] Why is Samsonite valuation a "cheap" multiple (in Rome Capital's opinion); why Samsonite a "A" business and not a "C" business; pricing power / consumer awareness

[17:02] How important is Samsonite's warranty on their products / supply chain

[21:18] Samsonite's dual listing plan / does Alex and Jason think that simply re-listing to the US can re-rate the shares

[29:00] Instead of dual-listing, why not focus on buybacks

[33:40] What happened to the private equity bid; history with CBC back in 2007

[36:13] Wholesale partners, is that one of their competitive advantages / how much does advertising really drive demand and consumption

[39:47] Barriers to entry - what is the risk here with new luggage brands entering the market

[45:49] Final thoughts on Samsonite

Today's sponsor: Ycharts

This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts, the ultimate platform you need in your toolkit for turning your financial insights into captivating client conversations.

With YCharts, each output is a powerful visual that brings your analyses to life and intuitively explains the “why” behind your strategy. Don’t get bogged down in the nitty-gritty of data and report creation — with features like PDF Reports, proposal generation, fundamental charts, and free content resources, YCharts gives you the visual edge you need to make a lasting impression and seal the deal.

Click here to start your free YCharts trial and level up your game with YCharts: https://go.ycharts.com/yet-another-value

It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this May 2023 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on the government suing to block the Horizon Therapeutics sale to Amgen, government's history of antitrust cases, Amazon / iRobot deal, evaluating judges in antitrust cases, banking sector and more!

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:58] What's on Chris' mind for May 2023 starting with government suing to block the Horizon Therapeutics sale to Amgen and government history of antitrust cases

[9:22] Amazon / iRobot deal

[13:23] What is the government arguing in the Amgen / Horizon case

[16:39] Evaluating antitrust cases, judges in particular + Amgen / Horizon case cont'd

[29:09] Banking sector: update on regional banks and how Chris thinks about the space right now

[39:15] Closing thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Joining the Yet Another Value Podcast today is the Editor and Co-Founder of The Chancery Daily to have a stirring conversation about the wild $AMC / Apes Case. To say The Chancery Daily has been covering every detail of this case would be an understatement and the following interview will wholly confirm that.

To subscribe and catch up on all aspects of the $AMC / Apes case, as well as to subscribe The Chancery Daily substack, please visit: https://thechancerydaily.substack.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:50] $AMC / Ape Lawsuit overview

[10:02] Conversion of Apes and AMC share into one share class with Ontario Capital and what happened at the shareholder meeting

[18:53] Why are $AMC shareholders suing to block the Ape/$AMC share consolidation

[21:38] Current status on shareholder vote

[26:38] What are the objectors mainly objecting to?

[36:28] Hedge funds - what are they getting wrong about this case?

[38:22] Baseline expectation of the settlement, is it realistic?

[47:30] Delaware legislation impact on the $AMC case

[51:46] Proposals for what objectors want to see from $AMC

[53:39] Is there any liability from $AMC to ape buyers?

[58:32] Appeal rights post-settlement

[1:05:57] Final thoughts on the whole $AMC / Apes case

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

BONUS EPISODE with Jonathan Cukierwar, Principal of the General Partner at Sohra Peak Capital Partners - this interview was recorded live at the Planet MicroCap Showcase: VEGAS 2023. Topics covered: investing in global MicroCap stocks, building relationships with management with teams based in another country, Q&A from the audience, plus an overview and Q&A on Duratec $DUR.AX.

For more information about Jonathan Cukierwar and Sohra Peak Capital Partners, please visit: https://www.sohrapeakcapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction

[1:16] Jonathan Cukierwar's background and launch of Sohra Peak Capital Partners

[2:57] Discovery process when looking at international MicroCap ideas

[6:03] Building relationships with management teams in a different country and traveling to visit the companies

[8:47] Q&A with audience: currency risks, international databases for looking at data on global stocks, regulatory risk and more!

[19:30] Overview and Q&A on Duratec $DUR.AX

BONUS EPISODE with Michael Liu, Analyst at Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management - this interview was recorded live at the Planet MicroCap Showcase: VEGAS 2023. Topics covered: discovery process for MicroCap stocks, building relationships with management, disagreements with management, groupthink, all followed by Q&A from the audience.

For more information about Michael Liu and Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, please visit: https://if.capital/

You can Follow Michael Liu on Twitter @michael20171 : https://twitter.com/michael2017l

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction

[1:20] Michael Liu and Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management backgrounds

[2:25] Discovery process for MicroCap stocks

[5:51] Building relationships with management teams

[9:47] How does Michael handle disagreements with management teams

[11:56] Avoiding the MicroCap groupthink echo-chamber (or not, if the collective is right)

[14:29] Herd mentality in MicroCaps and executing on information arbitrage

[19:33] Q&A with audience

Brian Finn, CIO of Findell Capital Management, is back on Yet Another Value Podcast in the quickest turnaround in the show's history, and for good reason. Following earnings calls from $CUTR (idea recently discussed with Vince Martin, link below) and $OPRT (idea discussed on Brian's first appearance, link below), there was a ton information to dissect.

Link to last podcast on $CUTR: https://youtu.be/LVqVzbAohus

Link to last podcast on $OPRT: https://youtu.be/xoxdSl3FwOk

Findell Capital Management Letter to the Oportun (3/29/2023): https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e17f2a118561f6339437f24/t/64240b4f0cf8705352d472b7/1680083791192/Findell+letter+to+OPRT.pdf

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:38] Update on $CUTR following earnings, new board slate

[9:27] What happened on the $CUTR earnings call, who's on the new board slate and CEO candidates

[15:33] $CUTR cash burn and potential financing needs going forward

[19:30] What happens with the $CUTR former CEO and former Chairman

[23:39] How do you assign a value to $CUTR when looking at the potential upside with AviClear product

[31:22] How $CUTR is dealing with management and board turnover

[36:50] Final thoughts on $CUTR

[39:00] Quick update on $OPRT following earnings call

[43:24] How has regional banking "crisis" affected $OPRT

[47:49] Thoughts on Tidewater earnings

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Doug O'Laughlin, Founder and Editor of the Fabricated Knowledge and Mule's Musings Newsletter, joins the Yet Another Value Podcast for the 3rd time to discuss AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP). Doug became excited about the idea and wanted to come on to chat about it because a very aggressive PSU that recently happened at AppLovin, and what these management incentives could mean for the business. For more information about Doug O'Laughlin and his newsletters, please visit:

Fabricated Knowledge: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/

Mule's Musings: https://mulesmusings.substack.com

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[2:17] Overview of AppLovin $APP

[4:50] What does IDFA means and why this is important when looking at $APP, understanding "Mediation"

[13:19] $APP's business model and their portfolio of hyper-casual games

[20:41] Unity and ironSource deal and how that affected AppLovin $APP

[26:22] $APP valuation

[29:30] What is the market missing about $APP?

[32:52] Share buybacks

[36:36] PSU grants and management incentives

[39:32] What concerns Doug the most about $APP

[40:23] Industry headwinds (ad rates getting crushed throughout 2022)

[42:58] $APP corporate governance, acquisition hit rate, incentives

[52:37] Strategic optionality of selling the games business and AI lever

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this April 2023 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on the Spectrum Brands antitrust lawsuit, thoughts on Activision Microsoft following the CMA unexpectedly ruled against the deal, and the Wells Notice sent to Coinbase.

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:36] What's on Chris' mind for April 2023: AMC, Coinbase, Spectrum Brands, Greyscale Trust

[2:33] Spectrum Brands antitrust lawsuit

[15:36] Understanding the value on Spectrum Brands if they win or lose the case

[23:27] The politics behind the Spectrum Brands case

[28:27] Thoughts on Activision Microsoft following the CMA unexpectedly ruled against the deal

[34:40] Does Activision want extend the walk date?

[37:09] What is a Wells Notice, the Wells Notice sent to Coinbase, their response to the Wells Notice

[42:44] What is the timeline and enforcement process now after sending the Wells Notice to Coinbase

[46:33] Politics on both sides of the Coinbase argument

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you. But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Jay Van Sciver, Head of Industrials and Materials at Hedgeye, shares his thoughts on industrials and materials in 2023. Automobiles, Elon Musk, rails, Norfolk Southern, geopolitical commodities landscape - this podcast runs the gamut; tune in to hear Jay's takes on it all.

For more information about Hedgeye, please visit: https://app.hedgeye.com/insights

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Hedgeye

[1:07] Industrial Sector overview: quick takes on VW, Porsche and other auto makers

[5:31] Additional thoughts on Volkswagen and Lucid

[7:53] Corporate governance issues: specifically referring to Jay's take on Elon Musk

[13:27] Brand awareness of Tesla vs other EV brands

[19:40] Is now the right time to short Tesla?

[25:32] Why does the Porsche short trade exist?

[30:55] Jay's bearish case for Uber

[38:25] Additional thoughts on industrials, specifically, Jay's thoughts on rails

[44:20] Understanding Rails' valuations

[48:05] Opportunity in Norfolk Southern?

[48:59] Materials Jay is looking at

[52:52] Closing remarks

Today's episode is sponsored by: Hedgeye

This podcast is sponsored by Hedgeye. Hedgeye does fantastic work, and I think that shines through in the conversation we have today. If you like the conversation and are interested in learning more, please check out hedgeye at hedgeye.com

Vince Martin, Lead Analyst and Writer at the Overlooked Alpha newsletter, discusses the "Game of Thrones" style proxy fight happening at $CUTR. For more information about the Overlooked Alpha newsletter, please visit: https://www.overlookedalpha.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[2:06] What is Cutera $CUTR - An Overview

[3:33] Cutera's acne products

[5:44] Sales strategy for acne products and how that panned out

[8:35] Understanding to potential stickiness for AviClear and comparables

[11:13] Proxy fight

[15:21] Dynamics between CEO and Executive Chairman

[21:40] Market response to board's decisions; specifically withdrawing 2023 guidance

[25:00] Unique gamesmanship

[27:44] More on withdrawing guidance; that could've been a tool for the board

[30:50] How two biggest shareholders seem to not support the board's decision to fire the CEO and Executive Chairman

[34:12] Executive Chairman's background; what's his angle and potential reasons for why he wants to become CEO

[37:56] Board of Directors' potential paths to winning

[42:50] How odd this proxy fight really is; as Andrew puts it, very "Game of Thrones"

[46:27] Most likely outcome of the $CUTR proxy fight

[48:03] Does every see a "golden goose" or value destruction?

[51:37] Closing thoughts on $CUTR and valuation Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you. But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Brian Finn, CIO of Findell Capital Management, discusses the letter he sent to Oportun Financial's board (NASDAQ: OPRT). Since Oportun's September 2019 IPO, shares have fallen -85%, falling well behind competitor, OneMain Holdings (OMF). In addition, costs have exploded higher and acquisitions have proved disastrous. Findell Capital Management Letter to the Oportun (Nasdaq: OPRT) Board of Directors (3/29/2023): https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e17f2a118561f6339437f24/t/64240b4f0cf8705352d472b7/1680083791192/Findell+letter+to+OPRT.pdf Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:50] Oportun Financial overview and why Findell Capital sent a letter to OPRT's board of directors

[9:20] What is the $OPRT Board of Directors doing? What is the incentive structure?

[11:45] Understanding $OPRT's subprime lending business for underbanked folks

[15:32] Comparing $OPRT to competitors like OneMain

[24:20] Unpacking $OPRT valuation

[28:29] How Oportun's corporate strategy is wrong

[30:38] $OPRT valuation cont'd - what is the fair value of the loans + cost of financing

[34:29] $OPRT Q4 2022 earnings call

[38:54] Next steps following Findell's sending of the letter

[43:01] Why $OPRT should be private or run by PE

[44:51] Closing thoughts on $OPRT

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Welcome to the July 2024 edition of Andrew's Random Ramblings on the Yet Another Value Podcast. Once a month, Andrew will share thoughts on a few topics - this episode includes: small cap performance, buybacks, stock price drives narrative, CEO changes, due diligence on companies you don't like (i.e. don't like the product or service personally), alternative data and idea dinners.

Posts mentioned during pod:

On the stress of market melt ups: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/weekend-thoughts-the-stress-of-market

On stock prices driving narrative: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/weekend-thoughts-bonus-stock-prices Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction to Andrew's Random Ramblings + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:18] Small cap performance, buybacks

[5:15] Stock price drives narrative

[8:35] CEO changes

[10:42] Due diligence on companies you don't like (i.e. don't like the product or service personally)

[16:28] Alternative data

[18:55] Idea dinners

Today's sponsor: Tegus

If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.

What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.

The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.

To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.

Artem Fokin, Portfolio Manager at Caro-Kann Capital LLC, returns to the podcast (for the third time) to update his thesis on Burfurd (BUR) on the heels of their big YPF summary judgement ruling against Argentina.

For more information about Caro-Kann Capital, please visit: http://caro-kann-capital.com/

Artem's first appearance on BUR: https://youtu.be/qBuH8pyc8Y0

Muddy Waters BUR case: https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/bur/mw-is-short/

Artem's response: http://caro-kann-capital.com/pdf/2019_09_09_Burford_Muddy_Waters_Dreams_of_Black_Cat_That_Just_Is_Not_There_by_Caro-Kann_Capital.pdf Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[2:33] Initial thoughts on Burford on the heels of the YPF summary judgement ruling

[6:30] How winning this case validates the Burford business

[9:03] Why is Burford saying this is such a complete win against Argentina?

[16:25] Cont'd on why is Burford saying this is such a complete win against Argentina?

[21:26] Understanding the mechanics of the waterfall payments

[30:37] Largest risks to Burford now; odds Argentina wins on appeal?

[33:39] Clarifying the mechanics of an appeal

[36:48] Estimated proceeds the Burford can actually collect

[44:59] What kind of cash flow is going to come into the company?

[55:13] Burford's asset recovery business

[59:04] Argentina's options if they want to stay in the international business community

[1:01:28] Capital allocation plans Burford could do

[1:06:42] Monetizing stakes

[1:17:31] Thoughts on this SEC fair value discussion they're having

[1:22:32] Quick update on Burford's business Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you. But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Michael Liu, Analyst at Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, discusses Cogstate (ASX: CGS) / (OTCQX: COGZF). Cogstate provides computerized cognitive tests for Alzheimer's clinical trials. Michael came on to discuss his thesis on Cogstate and how a failed takeover attempt could create an interesting special situation.

For more information about Michael Liu and Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, please visit: https://if.capital/

You can Follow Michael Liu on Twitter @michael20171 : https://twitter.com/michael2017l

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:51] What is Cogstate and why are they interesting?

[6:21] Cogstate Fundamentals

[8:01] Why doesn't large pharma, like Biogen, develop these cognitive tests on their own?

[10:38] Cogstate value proposition

[12:04] Does Cogstate control all the data from the clinical trials?

[12:47] Alternative to Cogstate's computerized cognitive tests (pen and paper tests), and understanding competitive landscape

[16:08] Current Cogstate market share for their tests vs. pen and paper tests

[18:12] Growth in Alzheimer's research and diversifying revenues outside of big Phase II and Phase III clinical trials for Alzheimer's drugs

[21:30] Additional R&D post-approval of Alzheimer's drugs (what this means for Cogstate)

[25:55] Valuation

[29:53] Bookings and revenue recognition (and how that relates to thinking about valuation)

[33:44] What caused to the stock to plummet earlier this year February 2023

[35:43] Gaming out why the buyout didn't happen

[36:44] Management background

[39:16] Recent insider buys and understanding why this happened today vs months ago

[43:07] Who the buyers could be for Cogstate

[46:18] Closing thoughts on Cogstate - recent buyouts in the Australian space

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

It's the end of the month, which means its time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. March 2023 was a doozy, so a lot to breakdown here, including: banking crises, thoughts on Coinbase's wells notice, mergers hanging in the balance (JetBlue/Spirit & Microsoft/Activision Blizzard), and more!

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Show notes:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:40] What's on Chris' mind for March 2023: Banks, Energy, Crypto, Government public policy reaction, plus more!

[3:05] Volatility in Banking

[6:27] First Republic

[7:33] Public policy response to 2023 banking crises

[11:46] Chris' thoughts on Coinbase's wells notice & policy

[12:56] Why SEC paying closer attention to Coinbase now?

[15:57] Andrew's three reasons holding him back from rushing into regional/community bank stocks + Chris' concerns

[23:26] JetBlue Spirit deal and trend towards government agencies taking a more aggressive stance on blocking mergers

[27:32] JetBlue Spirit cont'd: How do they get in a situation where it seems so clear to you and me that this was going to be a regulatory problem? How do they get in a situation where they were in this regulatory issue?

[34:00] Microsoft - Activision Blizzard merger deal

[37:15] Timeline for merger trial

[40:56] Closing thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense

Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.

But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Alex Morris, Founder of TSOH Investment Research, returns to Yet Another Value Podcast for the third time to chat with Andrew about the Media and Cable sectors in 2023. The Media and Cable sectors move at a mile a minute and it was time to have Alex back on to sift through all the noise. This conversation covers everything from: how mobile carriers think about fixed wireless, Charter vs. Cable One & T-Mobile, does Disney have an IP problem, and much more.

For more information about Alex Morris and subscribe to his research service, TSOH Investment Research Service, please visit: https://thescienceofhitting.com/

You can Follow Alex Morris on Twitter @TSOH_Investing: https://twitter.com/TSOH_Investing

Chapters: [0:00] Introduction + Daloopa

[2:22] Media and Cable space - high level thoughts on 2022/beginning of 2023

[4:30] Rewinding to better understand current media/cable infrastructure and how Alex thinks about fixed wireless

[8:57] How mobile carriers talking about fixed wireless

[12:08] Why Alex has Charter and Comcast in his portfolio?

[14:43] How does Alex think about Comcast being potentially being valued with conglomerate discount?

[19:05] Charter vs. Cable One and Charter vs. T-Mobile

[23:11] A bit more on T-Mobile

[27:54] Why Alex thinks you can achieve risk-adjusted alpha investing in Charter?

[31:53] Understanding Charter's CAPEX story

[33:45] Cable assets, Fiber assets + M&A

[37:09] Final thoughts on Cable/Fiber conversation

[40:06] What Alex is seeing in the Media business that is so attractive

[43:53] Does Disney have an IP problem?

[48:28] Taking a look at the state of Netflix - do they need a merger partner or to buy something?

[51:37] Making the case that Netflix is a risk-adjusted alpha generator

[54:32] Final thoughts This podcast is brought to you by Daloopa.

Daloopa was founded by a former hedge fund analyst. He didn’t have a tool that he trusted to be 99.9% accurate that allowed him to pull updates directly into his existing models, and had the granularity in KPIs, Guidance, and non-GAAP adjustments that he needed. So, he built Daloopa. Daloopa is the fastest growing source for public company data, with data available for over 3,000 companies. Hundreds of AI algorithms collect and organize customized company historicals with an accuracy level and depth of data that is higher than anything achievable by other modeling tools. Each datapoint is auditable to the source. Daloopa’s Excel plugin is the first to allow you to update your models in your existing format. It’s simple and non-invasive—Daloopa will never #REF out your models. Daloopa clients are able to cover more opportunities and generate more ideas. No more data errors, no more Excel monkeying, just the fundamentals. See why equity investors are switching to Daloopa by checking them out at Daloopa.com/YAVP.

John Maxfield, Editor of the Maxfield on Banks Newsletter on Substack, has spent nearly two decades studying America's best and worst banks, the history of banking, and interviewing bank leaders. John joins the Yet Another Value Podcast today to answer your burning questions regarding investing banks, his mindset during this "crisis" and how to think about investing in banks moving forward.

For more information and to subscribe to John's new substack, please visit: https://maxfieldonbanks.substack.com/

Show notes:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[1:43] John Maxfield's background and how he got into investing in banks

[4:52] Overall thoughts investing in banks right now in a post-SIVB, UBS buying Credit Suisse world

[8:43] Blood in the streets in banks vs. other markets[12:45] Why are customers with $10-100M running uninsured deposits in First Republic?

[13:55] Regional banks

[21:13] How should folks be weighing the risks with regard to investing in banks?

[26:54] Catalysts that caused the 1873 crisis; what can we learn from that crisis

[29:06] The "everyone needs to chill" model when thinking about run on the banks

[33:20] Bank metrics - how KPIs investors care about have changed/evolved

[35:25] Franchise risk for banks

[38:48] Does what is happening now have an impact on the community banks?

[47:11] Bank stocks that look interesting to John Maxfield in a Post-SIVB world

[57:47] How do you make $$ as a bank investor buying a bank for 4x book value?

[59:47] Generalist interest in banks: what should folks put more weight on when evaluating various investing opportunities (HINT: how did they perform during the 2008 financial crisis)

[1:04:38] How important is speaking with management from bank stocks?

[1:06:41] Closing thoughts Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you. But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

Julia Laulis, Chair of the Board, President & CEO of Cable One, Inc. (NYSE: CABO), joins Yet Another Value Podcast to discuss how the cable industry is positioned right now in 2023, and Cable One's focus moving forward. Cable One will also be at The Markel Corporation's 2023 shareholders meeting in Richmond, VA on May 17, 2023, where Andrew will also be in attendance. Chapters: 0:00 - Introduction + Episode sponsor: $BYTE 1:44 - Let's talk about the Cable business; why its an exciting and scary time in the space 4:04 - Does fixed wireless pose a risk to Cable One's focus on broadband for small cities, large towns strategy? 6:47 - The fear with fixed wireless 10:13 - Cable One's experience with fixed wireless 12:13 - Data usage 15:16 - What is it that ultimately turns a fixed wireless customer into a parking place for a future cable customer? 17:17 - Reliability of the network 19:07 - MD&O strategy 21:56 - Fiber overbuilding in general 27:49 - Customer ARPU 31:37 - Cable One's pricing 34:44 - Data throughputs 38:14 - Switching to IPTV and how does this improve the economics of the business 42:13 - Julia's thoughts on fiber vs. Docsis 4.0 for Cable One 46:57 - Is Julia starting to the M&A environment picking up? 48:51 - Share buybacks and capital allocation strategy 51:27 - Customer churn and macro perspective on new connects 1:00:16 - Cont'd. on customer low churn Today's episode is sponsored by: Roundhill IO Digital Infrastructure ETF – BYTE Investing in the real assets that underpin our digital world has never been easier. We are pleased to bring you this podcast in partnership with Roundhill Investments, the advisor to the Roundhill IO Digital Infrastructure ETF – BYTE - which trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol - “B” “Y” “T” “E”. The fund tracks the BYTE Index, which measures the performance of 40 leading global digital infrastructure businesses, such as towers and mobile communications, fiber and fixed line connectivity, and data centers. For a prospectus and more information, please visit roundhillinvestments.com/etf/byte - read carefully. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing in BYTE. Distributor Foreside Fund Services, LLC: https://www.roundhillinvestments.com/etf/byte/

Chadd Garcia, Portfolio Manager and Senior Research Analyst at Schwartz Investment Counsel Inc. - Ave Maria Mutual Funds, joins the Yet Another Value Podcast for the first time to discuss DigitalBridge Group, Inc. (NYSE: DBRG), and why he finds there could be price dislocation in the global digital infrastructure firm.

Chapters:

0:00 - Introduction + Episode sponsor: $BYTE

2:23 - Overview of DigitalBridge Group, Inc. (NYSE: DBRG)

8:10 - Chadd's thoughts betting on CEO, Marc Ganzi, + background

12:38 - First part of the valuation argument, Chadd's describes the sum of the parts

18:17 - DigitalBridge investment summary so far + second part of the valuation argument (asset pitch), and what the sell-side is missing when they look at the asset value side of the business

26:30 - Thinking through the income statement and cash flow

29:38 - Updated guidance for 2023 and 2025: how does Chadd think about valuation with respect to this information

32:14 - Operating leverage

33:44 - Two acquisitions on the asset management business and their affect on D/E multiple

37:47 - Opportunity cost: Why choose DigitalBridge over alternatives?

40:02 - Addressing pushback on DigitalBridge 45:45 - Outlook on fundraising & acquisition environments

48:47 - Value catalysts for 2023

49:49 - Thinking the the DBRG's scaling potential

50:59 - Does Chadd Garcia think DBRG eventually branches outside digital infrastructure?

52:36 - DBRG's capital allocation strategy

55:45 - Marc Ganzi's payout incentive and how that affects investor sentiment/thesis on DBRG

1:01:04 - Closing thoughts on DBRG 

For more information about Chadd Garcia and Schwartz Investment Counsel Inc. - Ave Maria Mutual Funds, please visit: https://www.schwartzinvest.com/investing-with-us/ave-maria-mutual-funds/

Today's episode is sponsored by: Roundhill IO Digital Infrastructure ETF – BYTE

Investing in the real assets that underpin our digital world has never been easier. We are pleased to bring you this podcast in partnership with Roundhill Investments, the advisor to the Roundhill IO Digital Infrastructure ETF – BYTE - which trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol - “B” “Y” “T” “E”. The fund tracks the BYTE Index, which measures the performance of 40 leading global digital infrastructure businesses, such as towers and mobile communications, fiber and fixed line connectivity, and data centers. For a prospectus and more information, please visit roundhillinvestments.com/etf/byte - read carefully. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing in BYTE. Distributor Foreside Fund Services, LLC: https://www.roundhillinvestments.com/etf/byte/

Chris McIntyre returns to the podcast to discuss Sotera Healthcare (SHC), why he thinks it's such a good business, and why he thinks the stock is still undervalued even after a big run in the wake of putting their legal liabilities (largely) behind them.  

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:15 Sotera Overview 
• 5:30 What makes Sotera such a good business? 
• 14:30 Why it's so unlikely a new competitor can enter the space 
• 19:55 Discussing Sotera's "growth algorithm"  
• 23:30 Sotera's multiple / valuation 
• 32:00 Historical legal liabilities overview 
• 38:45 The "science" behind the legal liabilities 
• 43:15 SHC's settlement and putting the legal liabilities behind them 
• 49:00 Why Georgia is not the same risk as Illinois was 
• 53:35 Sotera's controlling shareholders and their plans for the company 
• 56:00 M&A and roll up possibilities 
• 1:00:45 Closing thoughts

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast for his monthly state of the markets, with updates on TGNA, ATVI, AMC / APE, and MANU.  

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:30 TGNA 
• 27:00 ATVI / MSFT 
• 42:30 AMC / APE 
• 50:00 MANU

Yaron Naymark returns to the podcast to discuss the value case for IWG (London Listed). IWG is best known for their Regus brand, which competes with WeWork in the flex office space. Yaron thinks the market is discounting the operating leverage IWG will realize as they put COVID behind them and begin to accelerate their managed locations offering.   

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:10 IWG overview 
• 12:05 How does the current high vacancy office space impact flex 
• 17:00 Why COVID and tech layoffs could be a tailwind for flex office demand 
• 20:05 Why office owners can't do flex themselves 
• 28:30 Discussing WeWork's brand versus IWG 
• 39:15 IWG's operating leverage and current valuation
• 52:35 Why is it taking IWG so long to accelerate their franchise business / refranchise corporate locations 
• 55:50 Is pitching value creation / operating leverage just a Waiting for Godot story? 
• 1:05:00 Looking at a potential Instant sale 
• 1:12:30 The complexities of IWG's financial reporting

Marc Rubinstein, Founder and Editor of the Net Interest Newsletter (link to substack below), is back on the podcast to discuss his article titled, "The Trump Trade" and deep dive on Fannie Mae $FNMA.

For more information about Marc Rubinstein, please visit: https://www.netinterest.co/

Article on Trump Trade: https://www.netinterest.co/p/the-trump-trade

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Daloopa

[1:40] Background and history of $FNMA

[17:07] Turning point in 2012 (background cont'd.)

[20:19] $FNMA privatization argument from last 10 years

[29:54] "The Trump Trade" and $FNMA

[42:03] Why didn't Trump privatize in first term / if Trump wins 2nd term, what happens if he's going to pursue a privatization plan? / what is the most likely scenario

[53:50] Final thoughts

This episode is sponsored by our friends at Daloopa

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Josh Young, CIO of Bison, returns to the podcast to discuss what's going on in the energy markets and his recent investment thesis for Vital Energy (VTLE).  

Bison's VTLE thesis: https://bisoninterests.com/content/f/vital-energy-is-deeply-discounted 

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 3:15 What's happened in energy stocks since Josh's last appearance 
• 5:45 Discussing the outlook for nat gas 
• 15:10 Josh's current outlook for oil 
• 24:30 Is the oil market properly reflecting China's reopening 
• 29:30 Can Russia keep up current production levels? 
• 34:35 VTLE overview 
• 51:00 Breaking down VTLE's assets a little further 
• 57:35 What are the little things that energy companies do to improve operations 
• 1:01:20 Has VTLE earned the right to pursue M&A? 
• 1:07:00 VTLE's base case NAV valuation 
• 1:11:30 Will private equity ever step back into the energy space?

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in January 2023 and discuss what's on his mind, including updates on AVTI, the meme stocks roaring back, and why energy stocks seem poised to continue to perform well. 

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:15 What's on Chris's mind 
• 5:20 Quick hits on ATVI, SPB, and SJR 
• 15:00 More on ATVI 
• 24:30 Meme stocks are back! 
• 30:00 Continued discussion on AMC / APE 
• 37:00 Shareholder discounts and WE's discounted desks 
• 39:30 Energy stock performance versus energy prices over the past year 
• 44:20 Why the world seems structurally short every commodity

Artem Fokin, founder of Caro-Kann Capital, discusses the bull case for Kaspi (KSPI). Kaspi is the dominant fintech in Kazakhstan, and Artem breaks down how it's trading for a value price despite rapid growth and how its dominance will allow it to grow into new sectors of the Kazakhstan economy.  

Kaspi IPO case study from HBS: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=56825 

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:30 KSPI Overview 
• 8:15 Discussing how ingrained in Kazakhstan Kaspi is 
• 11:20 Sizing and breaking down the payments business 
• 24:45 How Kaspi's data helps them with consumer loans 
• 31:30 Kaspi as a "tax" on the Kazakhstan economy 
• 36:30 Discussing management and Kaspi capital allocation 
• 43:40 Run on the bank risk 48:20 Kazakhstan country / GDP risk 
• 53:00 Why hasn't KSPI succeeded outside of Kazakhstan 
• 1:00:30 How to think about valuing KSPI 
• 1:08:00 Framing KSPI's local currency risk

Jeremy Raper returns to the podcast to discuss his latest "engagement campaign" at London listed Serica Energy (SQZ). In particular, he focuses on why Serica is trying to rush through their most recent deal and why shareholders should consider voting against the share issuance at the meeting next week.  

Jeremy's letter to Serica: https://rapercapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/open-letter-Serica-Board-1.pdf 

All of Jeremy's engagement campaigns: https://rapercapital.com/engagement-campaigns/  

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:30 What's happening at SQZ 
• 8:45 SQZ's past deal rejections and timing on this deal 
• 15:45 Why an "accretive" deal does not necessarily create value 
• 17:30 How this deal insulates management and discourages shareholder feedback 
• 22:05 Discussing SQZ's shareholder base
• 27:30 How this deal gives away a controlling stake in Serica for free 
• 30:00 What should shareholders who don't like this deal should do 
• 32:20 How Serica management will respond if the current vote fails 
• 36:05 Providing an update on the coal trade 
• 47:35 Discussing Unit Corp (UNTC)

Judd Arnold discusses how the offshore place is at an inflection point and why he thinks Tidewater (TDW) is the best way to lay it.  

Judd's initial piece on TDW: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cKYzHg62bamDQa620NZcmn_af0A0xTfT/view 

Judd's TDW space: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake/status/1600172923355922434?s=20&t=_Q2xMKdTTh1Lhlp-HeRD3w  

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:30 What's interesting about offshore right now? 
• 5:50 Comparing today's cycle to 2012-2014 
• 10:00 TDW's replacement cost and why new build isn't starting any time soon 
• 18:30 Why increasing utilization can quickly spike day rates 
• 21:00 Discussing capital returns if we do see a day rate spike 
• 25:20 Why focus on TDW versus the other offshore players? 
• 30:30 What breaks the offshore cycle? 
• 36:10 Offshore as a snowball running down the hill 
• 39:30 How regulatory uncertainty impacts terminal value and potential new build dynamics 
• 42:40 Discussing TDW's acquisition strategy 
• 46:40 Given the cyclicality here, how do you value offshore? 
• 54:40 Haven't the stocks already run? 
• 59:30 What could accelerate the cycle?

The management team from Tidewater Offshore (TDW) comes on the podcast to discuss Tidewater and why we could be at an inflection point for the offshore space.  

TDW's investor relations page (with investor deck): https://investor.tdw.com/overview/default.aspx 

December OSV market report (from seabrokers): https://www.seabrokers.no/wp-content/uploads/SEABREEZE_December.pdf

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:50 What's different in the current cycle? 
• 8:00 Why supply is so limited in offshore 
• 13:10 What is TDW seeing on the demand side? 
• 26:00 Discussing TDW's valuation and where earnings can go as rates rise 
• 32:30 TDW's potential utilization 38:10 EBITDA to free cash flow conversion 
• 43:00 What do day rates look like right now? 
• 47:10 How has TDW set up their fleet to take advantage of rising rates? 
• 51:10 But seriously.... why is this time different? 
• 57:30 How low would oil prices need to go to start impacting offshore drilling demand? 
• 59:00 TDW capital allocation going forward

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in December 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, including updates on ATVI, why pre-arb was so bad in 2022, and  WLFC's proposed takeout.   

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:30 What's on Chris's mind 
• 4:00 Discussing why "pre-arb" didn't work in 2022 
• 11:20 Updating ATVI 
• 21:00 Majority takeouts of minorities 
• 29:45 WLFC takeout 
• 37:20 AMZN's IRBT takeout

Lionel Hutz discusses his thesis for Liquidia (LQDA) and why the thinks they are likely to win their patent battle against United Therapeutics (UTHR).

Lionel's LQDA write up: https://lionelhutz.substack.com/p/waiting-with-bated-breath-for-liquidia

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:50 LQDA overview 
• 8:05 Diving into the patent background 
• 16:10 Breaking down the conflicting rulings on the '793 patent 
• 19:55 Why the PTAB ruling is the most important for '793 
• 21:55 What's so unique about the judge's ruling on '793 
• 28:30 Why PTAB ruled the '793 patent invalid 
• 37:40 LQDA's primary argument for invalidating '793 
• 43:30 Discussing the expert reports around the '793 patent 
• 53:30 Timeline to monetization and why delaying LQDA is so important for UTHR 
• 59:00 LQDA's upside if they win 
• 1:13:00 LQDA's cash runway

Mordechai Yavneh, founder and PM at Focus Capital, discusses his investment in Silicon Motion (SIMO) and why he thinks it's "merger arb for people who don't like merger arb."  

Focus Capital's research site (with SIMO deck): https://focuscapitaladvisers.com/research  

Chapters  

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:40 Why SIMO is different than normal merger arbitrage 
• 6:00 More SIMO overview 
• 11:25 Is the merger overhang impacting SIMO's price? 
• 15:30 Discussing SIMO's fundamentals 
• 21:30 Why companies are outsourcing to SIMO 
• 25:50 Why SIMO is taking share
• 31:30 Breaking down SIMO's market share 
• 34:15 Why SIMO's demand dynamics aren't like MU's 
• 40:20 SIMO's proxy projections and fundamentals 
• 45:35 How Mordechai looks at SIMO's fundamental value 
• 52:15 Why MXL wanted to buy SIMO 
• 57:00 Why SIMO saw some customer churn in ~2018 
• 1:00:00 What are the odds the SIMO deal goes through? 
• 1:03:45 Capital allocation in a potential deal break

Avi Fisher from Long Cast Advisors joins the pod to talk about CoreCard (CCRD). Key topics include the risks and opportunities from their Apple Card / GS relationship and the benefits of the CEO’s measured growth approach.  

Chapters: 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 3:30 Avi's framework for evaluating stocks 
• 22:45 How Avi found CCRD 
• 24:35 CCRD's background 
• 32:00 Discussing the GS relationship and concentration 
• 36:50 CCRD's different revenue lines 
• 40:50 Discussing the "Elephant in the room" (BB article on Apple trying to in house) 
• 50:00 Could GS buy CCRD? 
• 52:45 CCRD's valuation 
• 59:00 What makes CCRD's product "premium"? 
• 1:05:00 CCRD's approach to share repurchases 
• 1:06:15 A little more on CCRD's management and history 
• 1:10:30 Avi's closing thoughts

John Haskell, CIO at Atla Capital Management, joins the podcast to share his thoughts on international real estate investing, emerging markets and ESR Group Limited ($1821.HK).

For more information about Atla Capital Management, please visit: https://www.atlacap.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge

[2:22] International public real estate investing

[11:00] Taxation on global REITs / emerging markets

[17:54] John's most interesting market(s) right now / Vietnam overview

[21:58] ESR Group Limited thesis overview and why interesting to John

[27:12] Why has the stock not worked (since it's high in 2021) / how did John get comfortable with owning ESR

[36:06] Starwood investment / potential ESR buyout / how does John think ESR take out plays out

[45:54] ESR valuation

[55:54] Related party transactions and how do you have faith that they are done in fair value / final thoughts

Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge

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Funds looking to strengthen their internal training programs can visit fundamentedge.com/corporate-training to learn more.

AJ Secrist from Firstlight Management discussed his thesis for Lamb Weston (LW). LW is a very strong business, and AJ thinks the market is missing just how much margin upside there is as COVID era deals with large customers reprice and the company laps 2021’s disastrous potato crop.  

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:25 LW Overview 
• 9:35 LW Valuation 
• 13:00 Isn't LW fully valued at these prices?
•  19:25 Discussing the current potato crop 
• 26:55 Global margin upside 
• 28:35 Why is scale an advantage for LW? 
• 31:45 Why will LW's margins accelerate now? 
• 34:30 Industry demand and supply dynamics 
• 37:20 Capital allocation and share buybacks 
• 41:30 Management incentives and share price targets 
• 45:00 Potential private equity or BRK end games 
• 48:10 A little more discussion on LW's potential P/E multiple 
• 51:10 What happens if we have a low carb craze again?

The team from Half Moon Capital, Eric DeLamarter and Brandon Carnovale, come on the pod to discuss their thesis on Oxford Industries (OXM). OXM owns the Tommy Bahama and Lily Pulitzer brands, and Half Moon thinks the market is underestimating the strength of those brands for a variety of reasons.  

Half Moon's OXM thesis: https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:aec0338f-33d0-4e35-b956-ac6aa024167a?viewer%21megaVerb=group-discover 

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:20 OXM overview 
• 5:00 Tommy Bahama brand strength 
• 8:55 Could Tommy Bahama follow the LULU brand path? 
• 16:05 OXM's valuation 
• 22:10 Did Tommy Bahama over-earn during COVID? 
• 28:00 OXM management 36:10 Capital Allocation and OXM's recent Johnny Was acquisition 
• 38:30 CROX HEYDUDE acquisition and learnings for OXM 
• 43:10 A little more on Tommy Bahama and the California branded hotel 
• 47:30 OXM's margins and current competitive environment 
• 53:30 Tommy Bahama's inventory risk

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to provide his state of the markets for November 2022, including what's happened with TWTR since the deal closed, FTX's implosion, and a quick run down of a few other merger arb situations.  

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:50 What's going on with TWTR since the deal? 
• 13:50 FTX's implosion 
• 35:30 Chris's current thoughts on crypto 
• 41:15 Walking through some merger situations

Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, goes through his thesis on Casio Computer. Casio makes the popular G-Shock watches, and Michael thinks their rising popularity and a low valuation make for an interesting set up.

Michael's Casio write up: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/fb1ac5f5-9ce9-4c56-a930-874d1f73f4c8

Chapters

• 0:00 Intro
• 3:00 Casio Overview
• 6:30 Are watches a dying business?
• 12:55 Is Casio hitting an inflection point?
• 18:30 Who's buying G-Shock?
• 20:00 Casio's valuation
• 25:00 Does Casio have enough upside?
• 28:30 Is management really willing to drive shareholder value?
• 31:00 Do watches make for a good D2C business?

The "Koala", a buyside mining and commodity specialist, comes on to discuss the commodity and mining space in general and Ivanhoe Electric (IE) in particular.  

The Koala's twitter account: https://twitter.com/YellowLabLife 

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:55 General mining / commodity sector overview 
• 12:40 The "nothing can get built anymore" moat 
• 18:40 Capital discipline imposed by low multiples 
• 22:00 How Peabody talked their own stock down with growth plans 
• 31:00 What is the market missing on coal? 
• 44:00 Why is Whitehaven still the Koala's coal horse? 
• 49:30 Discussing Ivanhoe Mines history 
• 56:55 Ivanhoe Electrics background 
• 1:00:45 Ivanhoe's Typhoon Technology 
• 1:04:30 Discussing Ivanhoe's mines 
• 1:12:00 How did Ivanhoe find these great mines in the U.S.? 
• 1:15:00 Ivanhoe's cash runway

Samir Patel, Portfolio Manager at Askeladden Capital, joins the podcast to discuss Mix Telematics (MIXT) and why he sent a letter to the company pushing for change.  

Askeladden's letter to MIXT: https://www.accesswire.com/723191/Askeladden-Capital-Announces-Activist-Position-in-MiX-Telematics-NYSEMIXT 

Chapters

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:50 MIXT Overview 
• 5:45 MIXT's hardware to subscription switch 
• 9:30 The economics of a MIXT subscription 
• 12:30 What's the moat that prevents competitors entering the market? 
• 18:30 MIXT retention and churn 
• 21:00 MIXT high level valuation 
• 24:20 Precedent comps for MIXT 
• 27:30 Why did Askeladden send a letter to MIXT? 
• 35:45 Digging into MIXT's lack of growth and margin expansion 
• 39:15 MIXT's history of missing long term targets 
• 43:45 Would a PE takeout make sense for MIXT? 
• 46:00 MIXT's sales force 
• 48:30 Tracking MIXT's progress in the near term 
• 56:45 MIXT's recent chairman resignation and insider sales

Bill Chen, a real estate investor, returns to the podcast to discuss HHC's value and why Bill Ackman's current tender for the company might undervalue HHC.  

HHC model: https://t.co/q6lQ69TeXZ 

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro
• 2:50 HHC overview 
• 7:15 How HHC can create value over time 
• 9:15 Valuing HHC's operating assets 
• 11:35 Opportunity cost versus other publicly traded real estate 
• 17:35 Valuing HHC's unstabilized assets 
• 19:30 Valuing HHC's Hawaiian assets (Ward Village) 
• 29:55 Valuing HHC's "other" assets 
• 31:40 Valuing HHC's MPC 
• 45:20 Valuing HHC's Seaport asset 
• 50:55 Why is HHC always trading under NAV? 
• 54:00 Will non-Ackman shareholders ever realize value from HHC? 
• 56:25 HHC's OXY deal 
• 1:05:35 HHC's most recent MPC deal versus share buybacks 
• 1:13:00 Ackman's long term HHC plan

Chris Lee, a MBA student who won the Dorsey Stock Pitch Competition, comes on the podcast to discuss his winning pitch for Delta Apparel (DLA).

Chris's winning pitch: https://dorseystockpitchcompetition.substack.com/p/long-delta-apparel-dla?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web 

Chapters 

• 0:00 Intro 
• 2:30 Chris's background 
• 4:45 DLA overview 
• 10:20 DLA's valuation 
• 13:40 Returns on capital and competition 
• 17:35 DLA's Fanatics partnership 
• 23:10 The Salt Life Brand 
• 27:30 Is this the right management team for Salt Life? 
• 32:30 End game for Salt Life 
• 34:50 Lack of disclosure worries 
• 41:20 Why is this company public? 
• 43:40 Closing thoughts

Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in October 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, with a large focus on TWTR.

My prior podcast on SPB: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1549013912133111808?s=20&t=6iWCDZC_8sPzlIuELTNwdQ

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:30 What's on Chris's mind this month (TWTR)
4:50 Twitter's security review (or lack thereof)
7:30 Jurisdiction for a potential TWTR security review
13:30 What would a security review look like?
21:40 The politics behind a TWTR security review
29:25 Potential repercussions from a TWTR security block
35:55 Last chance for financing and insolvency outs!
41:45 How big will the cost cuts at TWTR be?
45:50 Discussing Spectrum Brands

Luis Sanchez, founder of LVS Advisory, disses the bull thesis for IBKR, including why the company is a major beneficiary of interest rates rising and how the company's business to business solution can drive major account growth.

See Luis's IBKR write up here: https://lvsadvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/LVS-Advisory-IBKR-Write-Up-September-2022.pdf

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:45 IBKR overview
6:05 What is Luis seeing in IBKR that the market is missing?
12:30 IBKR's valuation
15:15 Is IBKR more net interest or trading driven?
19:00 IBKR's focus on active traders
23:30 Does IBKR have one product risk from the bigger asset managers?
28:30 Blow up risk
38:00 International account risk and opportunity
42:45 Business to business growth
52:45 Trading account stickiness
53:35 IBKR and crypto
55:55 IBKR's founder and management team
1:00:15 Share buybacks and insider selling

It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this June 2024 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on: election and election trades, $LQDA, Russell Rebalance arbitrage, Burford $BUR / Security National $SNFCA, Presidential Debate and implications for investing.

For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge

[1:51] What's on Chris' mind for June 2024: election and election trades

[3:24] $LQDA

[12:07] The Russell Rebalance arbitrage

[18:58] Russell Rebalance cont'd: Burford $BUR / Security National $SNFCA

[24:20] Thoughts on Presidential Debate, election and implications for investing

Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge

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Fundamental Edge was founded with a mission to train the next generation of investors and a vision to create a platform that serves the learning and development needs of investment professionals throughout their careers. Through structured lessons and proven frameworks, Fundamental Edge aims to condense years of “learning via osmosis” into a masterclass for the equity research process.

Funds looking to strengthen their internal training programs can visit fundamentedge.com/corporate-training to learn more.

Lionel Hutz, author of the excellent lionelhutz substack, comes on the podcast to talk about the ongoing drama with Twitter and Elon Musk. In this episode, we exclusively discuss the Twitter case as it stands on October 13th, the odds the deal closes at the end of the month, why it might not, and what happens if it doesn’t. If you’re looking for more background on the deal, please see my podcast from May with Evan Tindell or August with Professor Ann Lipton and Compound248.

Lionel's Twitter: https://twitter.com/LionelHutz_Esq
May pod with Evan: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1529452942931238914?s=20&t=7yi3kr0wvPY0nduenfVdSA
August pod with Ann and Compound: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1556987816894255106?s=20&t=LEFlc2kvhXZ_M59UhEj6NQ

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:30 Where we are today
6:55 Dismissing CFIUS and Bot Outs
9:20 Financing and Insolvency risks overview
14:10 How could the banks pull out of financing?
21:10 How would Elon's efforts over the next three weeks impact financing outs?
26:45 Are Elon's hands too dirty at this point to use a financing out?
29:10 How would an insolvency out play out?
30:55 Does section 5.9 suggest Elon *must* make Twitter solvent at close?
33:20 Judicial Estoppel / has Elon already repped TWTR is solvent?
39:30 Piercing the veil / getting Elon to pony up all the money
45:10 What does the trial process look like if Elon doesn't close now?
48:45 What arguments and discovery get made at trial if Elon tries a financing out?
52:15 What arguments and discovery get made if Elon tries an insolvency out?
56:40 Closing timeline and the Tesla blackout window theory
58:15 Would Elon's lawyers have supported the motion to stay if they weren't planning on closing?
1:01:50 Why does Elon seem so scared of getting deposed?

Doug O’Laughlin, founder of fabricated knowledge, returns to the podcast to discuss his thesis on SiTime (SITM). 

Doug's SITM write up: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/its-high-time-to-look-at-sitime

Doug's first pod appearance: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/doug-from-fabricated-knowledge-on

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:45 SITM overview
7:50 What is the market missing at SITM?
12:45 Near term numbers and does management have a handle on the business?
18:05 MEMS versus Quartz market size and growth
24:20 SITM's MEMS market share
27:00 Risk of insourcing MEMS
31:45 How did SITM "win" MEMS?
35:20 Apple and customer concentration
41:00 More on MEMS versus Quartz
43:40 Apple's "all-in" on MEMS
52:45 Why isn't MEMS taking share faster from Quartz?
1:00:30 SITM valuation
1:08:30 Capital allocation and insider buy

Zack Buckley discusses his investment thesis for Xponential Fitness (XPOF), including why he thinks the company is set for continued rapid growth.

Zack's twitter: https://twitter.com/Amarginofsafety

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:00 Zack's background
5:15 XPOF overview
8:20 Can XPOF buck the history of publicly traded fitness?
12:10 Brand sustainability and the Curves comp
15:15 XPOF's valuation and multiples
17:50 XPOF management history
20:55 How XPOF's partnerships can create value
22:55 Does XPOF have too many brands?
26:00 Can XPass drive customer acquisition?
29:15 What is Zack seeing in XPOF that the market is missing?
31:55 Why XPOF over other publicly traded franchises?
35:00 Is XPOF riding a post-COVID tailwind?
38:30 Franchisee unit economics
41:50 Recession risk
49:00 Has the competitive environment changed since the last recession?
54:45 Insider buying
57:00 Capital allocation and acquisitions going forward