Explore every episode of the podcast When We Are with Alex Steffen

Colleagues have been asking me how I see and think about the intensification of AI concerns, and the growing sense that we are now in a period of crisis.

In light of recent revelations — that folks in the relevant industries believe they are triggering existential risks to humanity, releasing products that can cause enormous harm to many millions of people in their normal use, and wargaming out how, as companies, how to survive with maximum value intact in the event of an AI disaster — how does a working futurist make sense of the world we live in now?

Here’s one hypothesis: The AI crisis is similar in nature to the climate crisis.

Both crises — climate and AI — are so dangerous because they are so unprecedented. They both involve hidden rapid escalations of risk, political attempts to deny (and stall action to mitigate) those risks, and sudden recognition of deepening discontinuities. It might be going too far to call AI digital coal, but the parallels are strong.

Where the parallel breaks is that at least some people working in and around AI seem to have commercial interests, even identity needs, that lead them to expound on worst-case AI future scenarios as an effort to magnify the value of their expertise or ownership. There the parallel breaks down: imagine Exxon in 1972 boasting that its oil was gonna melt the f**k out of the ice caps, and oil men were the masters of human destiny.

But, to the extent that the AI-as-climate-chaos analogy holds, climate foresight and strategies offer some of the best windows into thinking about what this unasked-for exponential infiltration of machine intelligence into our lives might mean.

And how we ruggedize for the fallout.

This show is loosely part of my podcast series on thinking about personal strategies for meeting the climate crisis. (Missed the first show in the series? You can listen here.)

This podcast, When We Are, is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world. Please subscribe, rate and review!

PS: You can learn how to plan more sensibly and successfully for your family’s life in planetary discontinuity. The New York Times recently featured my Personal Climate Strategy Workshop. You can learn more about my other offerings at my climate courses site. The next Workshop will be offered in November 2026. You can also read a previous participant’s account of what it’s like to take the course in Alex Steffen’s Personal Climate Strategy Workshop: A Review.

- Need expert guidance for your own climate planning or business strategy? Schedule a private Climate Strategy Consultation.

- Let’s connect on Bluesky, LinkedIn, Facebook or Substack Notes.

- This newsletter and podcast are completely independent and ad-free, made possible by support from our readers. Please consider subscribing. Thank you.

- Finally, if you’re already a subscriber and would like to support this work, please consider giving a gift subscription to a family member, friend or colleague.

Move.

Move yourself out of the path of destruction.

Relocation is one of the foundational responses to the climate crisis. If you’re one of the many millions living in communities facing escalating physical risks and deepening economic brittleness, not being there when things get really bad may be the smartest strategy you can have.

It’s also, in some ways, a strategy with a deadline.

See, to move away from a place with a collapsing future, you have to have somewhere to move to, and unfortunately you’re not the only one who sees what’s happening.

All around the world, there are more people who need to relocate than there are places for them to go. Demand increasingly exceeds supply. Prices are already beginning to rise. And the biggest wave of awareness is just beginning to swell.

The result is a climate relocation bottleneck.

This podcast — part seven in my series on how to think about planning for climate chaos in our own lives — explains what this climate squeeze is and why delaying a needed move for too long might cost you.

(Did you miss the start of the series? You can listen here.)

If you find this discussion valuable, please share.

If you’d like more new thinking about crisis foresight, sustainability solutions, systems thinking and personal climate strategies, please subscribe.

Finally, if you’re already a subscriber and would like to support this work, please consider giving a gift subscription to a family member, friend or colleague.

Thanks so much!

Growing climate and ecological discontinuity is now colliding with inaction and inertia from governments and major institutions. It is clear that different places and communities will have widely varying outcomes as the crisis worsens. We are forced to become students of the systems we depend on, looking to assess not only the risks we face but also the extent to which those systems will respond or collapse where we live. For some, the prospects are reasonably bright: ruggedized systems and sustained prosperity. Others face the retreat of systems from zones of unofficial abandonment and a spiraling loss of options.

No one strategy will work for everyone.

Here I offer a basic rubric for trying to figure out what kind of strategic relationship to systems might work for you, based on your resources, your skills, your risk tolerance, your time horizon, and your trust in your local governance and systems. The ultimate goal is getting a sense of what “the right home, in the right place, in the right systems with the right timing” means for your family and friends.

If you find this discussion valuable, please share.

If you want to get more thinking about crisis foresight, sustainability solutions, systems thinking and personal climate strategies, please subscribe.

Finally, if you’re already a subscriber and would like to support this work, please consider giving a gift subscription to a family member, friend or colleague.

Thanks so much!

See you next time, when we discuss the rapid evolution of the Climate Relocation Bottleneck.

The gap between what we need to do to ruggedize for the climate chaos now unfolding and what we are doing is so large that whole regions, whole communities and many families will find themselves falling into brittleness.

Over the next couple of weeks, we’re giving a short tour of the key questions in personal climate ruggedization. What are the major risks and how do we understand them? What does it mean to live in a time with no new normal? What are the fundamental steps we can take to survive, thrive and prosper in the midst of a planetary crisis?

Today, I answer the question, “Why do I need my own climate strategy?”

(Did you miss the start of the series? You can listen here.)

This newsletter and podcast are completely independent and ad-free, made possible by support from our readers. Please consider subscribing. Thank you.

PPS: - You can learn how to plan more sensibly and successfully for your family’s life in planetary discontinuity. The New York Times recently featured my Personal Climate Strategy Workshop. You can learn more about my other offerings at my climate courses site. The next Workshop will be offered in November 2026. You can also read more about what’s it’s like to take the course from a previous participant, in Alex Steffen’s Personal Climate Strategy Workshop: A Review.

- My podcast, When We Are, is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world. Please subscribe, rate and review!

- Need expert guidance for your own climate planning or business strategy? Schedule a private Climate Strategy Consultation.

- Let’s connect on Bluesky, LinkedIn, Facebook or Substack Notes

Today we explore discontinuity risk.

Not only do we face climate chaos from within brittle systems, but the sheer scale and scope of changes around us make it harder to know if we’re making valid decisions. Formally sound choices are transformed into new liabilities.

Over the next couple of weeks, I’m leading a short tour of the key questions in personal climate ruggedization. What are the major risks and how do we understand them? What does it mean to live in a time with no new normal? What are the fundamental steps we can take to survive, thrive and prosper in the midst of a planetary crisis?

Today, I explore the question, “How do I make good decisions when everything’s changing so fast?”

(Did you miss the start of the series? You can listen here.)

Want to learn more? My Personal Climate Strategy Workshop will arm you with a framework for making better decisions in a future defined by discontinuity. In this eight-class workshop, you’ll learn the patterns underneath changing systems, practical steps for improving your access to relevant information, and prepare your own strategic approach to guide you successfully through ongoing uncertainty.

You’ll get the tools you need to anchor the life you’ve built — your career, your family, your goals — on ground that will stay solid during the storms ahead.

The next Workshop begins next Monday, September 21, 2026! Registration closes this coming Friday, September 18, or when enrollment reaches 25 participants. (There are seven specially priced Access Rate seats left — save $700!) Learn more and save your seat.

Climate chaos is here. What’s the plan?

Over the next couple weeks, we’re giving a short tour of the key questions in personal climate ruggedization. What are the major risks and how do we understand them? What does it mean to live in a time with no new normal? What are the fundamental steps we can take to survive, thrive and prosper in the midst of a planetary crisis?

Today, I explore the question, “Will my community be able to bounce back as climate impacts worsen?”

(Did you miss the start of the series? You can listen here.)

Are you ready to take action? My Personal Climate Strategy Workshop will show you how. In this eight-class workshop, you’ll learn a framework for making smart, practical decisions in a time of worsening crisis and deep uncertainty.

The next Workshop begins next Monday, September 21, 2026! Registration closes this coming Friday, September 18, or when enrollment reaches 25 participants. (There are eight specially priced Access Rate seats left.) Learn more and save your seat:

When We Are is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world. Please subscribe, rate and review!

This series is public and free, not paywalled. Please share it with others.

How do we ready ourselves for climate chaos?

Over the next couple weeks, we’re giving you a short tour in climate preparation: Climate foresight. Discontinuity. What it means to live during unprecedented changes. How to understand the new risks we now face. Why the economic brittleness brought on by climate chaos is the greatest danger most of us face. Avoiding getting trapped in places with shrinking futures. Relocation, repositioning and ruggedization. The intensifying competition for relatively safe places and stable situations. Why some opportunities will actually increase in the coming decades. How to stay healthy and resilient when working to ready yourself for unprecedented times.

Today, I answer one of the questions people often ask me: “What should I be worried about?”

(Missed the first show in the series? You can listen here.)

When We Are is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world. Please subscribe, rate and review!

This series is public and free, not paywalled. Please share it with others.

Ready to stop worrying and start strategizing? My Personal Climate Strategy Workshop is for you. In three weeks, you’ll learn the tools you need to survive, thrive and create a good life in the midst of climate chaos. The next Workshop begins Monday, September 21, 2026. Registration is open; space is limited to 25 participants. Learn more and save your seat:

Hey friends,

This is the first episode in a new series we’re doing on the fundamentals of designing a personal climate strategy.

Over the next couple weeks, we’ll discuss the basics: Climate foresight. Discontinuity. What it means to live during unprecedented changes. How to understand the new risks we now face. Why the economic brittleness brought on by climate chaos is the greatest danger most of us face. Avoiding getting trapped in places with shrinking futures. Relocation, repositioning and ruggedization. The intensifying competition for relatively safe places and stable situations. Why some opportunities will actually increase in the coming decades. How to stay healthy and resilient when working to ready yourself for unprecedented times.

Today, I answer one of the questions people ask me the most: “Do I need my own strategy for living in climate chaos?”

When We Are is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world. Please subscribe, rate and review!

This series is free and public. Please share it with anyone you know who’s trying to get ready for the climate crisis.

Ready to turn theory into action? My Personal Climate Strategy Workshop is unlike anything else out there. In three weeks, you’ll learn the tools you need to survive, thrive and create a good life in the midst of climate chaos. The next Workshop begins Monday, September 21, 2026. Registration is open; space is limited to 25 participants. Learn more and save your seat:

Do you know how much climate chaos is costing you, now?

This episode of When We Are is a quick exploration of how much loss is both a) already being incurred, and b) largely being ignored (or even being actively denied).

We can’t avoid future loss completely, but turning our attention to the ways we now face riskier, more brittle and less prosperous futures can help us make better decisions as climate chaos worsens.

If you’re interested in the topic, I’ve included some additional reading below.

Thanks for listening,

Alex

I wrote about the active denial of present risk in this newsletter:

I wrote about the ways climate chaos is already undermining our economic prosperity in this essay:

I also wrote about the myriad ways in which the erosive effects of climate shifts — individually almost too slow or small to notice, but dire in aggregate — can wreak havoc on the systems we depend on for our prosperity:

PS: As always, if you get some value from these discussions, please take a minute to rate the show. In Apple podcasts, go to the podcast’s main show page and scroll down to “Ratings & Reviews,” then click the star ratings. This really helps more people find the show. Thanks!

PPS: If you find these newsletters helpful or interesting, please help spread the word:

Find out more about my Personal Climate Strategy Workshop here.

We live in a planetary crisis that is at its very core intergenerationally unjust. The vast majority of the benefits of predatory delay and extractive prosperity have gone to (and been consumed by) the oldest people in out society, while their unprecedented costs will land most heavily on the youngest.

But what if being young and bold can actually become an advantage at this moment?

The reaction to my podcast Crisis Advice for Young People was very positive, but folks wanted to hear more about what younger people might actually do to improve their odds.

This podcast is my attempt to suggest one way younger people may be able to leverage the freedoms of being young into a better position in the rough times ahead: by moving faster than other can.

As the man says, “Quick’s the word and sharp’s the action.”

If you find it useful, please pass it along.

Alex

PS: The next Personal Climate Strategy: The Basics class is right around the corner, on Thursday, March 19th at 12pm PST // 8pm GMT! Get an introduction to a proven system for building a rugged decision-making framework, ready for times of increasing stress and disruption. Considering relocation? Planning for kids? Thinking about a new career? Mapping out the future of your business? This class can set you up to make better choices.

Sign up by March 10th and save $100!

PPS: As always, if you get some value from these discussions, please take a minute to rate the show. In Apple podcasts, go to the podcast’s main show page and scroll down to “Ratings & Reviews,” then click the star ratings. This really helps more people find the show.

Reminder: The early-bird for the next live Personal Climate Strategy: The Basics ends on Tuesday, March 10! Sign up now for $97 (save $100). Class meets Thursday, March 19th at 12pm Pacific.

I think of it as “The Myth of the Starting Gun and the Flat Track Fallacy.”

There are two parts here:

The Starting Gun: the idea that climate action and response will have a definable moment of acceleration, where delay drops away and rapid progress begins.

and

The Flat Track: the notion that when that moment of acceleration comes, our task will be deploying the kinds of policies, technologies and culture changes that advocates have been demanding for decades — that future action looks more or less like what we’ve been working towards, just arriving a little later than we hoped.

I think both parts are wrong. No moment of political transformation is coming, only the acceleration of capacities with unevenly distributed and partial successes. And as action does increase, we will increasingly find that our past plans simply no longer match the scale of discontinuity in front of us. No Orderly Transition is coming, and the broader climate debate is unprepared for what’s coming now.

I explore this idea in this episode of When We Are.

Alex

PS: The ninth Personal Climate Strategy: The Basics class is coming up on Thursday, March 19th at 12pm PST // 8pm GMT! Get an introduction to a proven system for building a rugged decision-making framework, ready for times of increasing stress and disruption. Considering relocation? Planning for your kids or grandkids? Mapping out the future of your business? This might be for you.

Sign up by March 10th and save $100!

PPS: As always, if you get some value from these discussions, please take a minute to rate the show. In Apple podcasts, go to the podcast’s main show page and scroll down to “Ratings & Reviews,” then click the star ratings. This really helps more people find the show.

PPPS: If you find these newsletters helpful, please spread the word:

Thank you!

Millions of us are disoriented.

In this podcast, I explore what foresight tells us about disorientation.

We’ve all been raised, educated and trained to understand the world around us. Much of that understanding, though, is tethered to notions about the shape and behavior of systems. Many of those notions, in turn, we absorb in a variety of informal ways that are lived, social or cultural — what we often think of as common sense.

In times of essential continuity, common sense plus a decent education is a powerful mix.

In discontinuous moments, though, they break down. I’ve written before about how hard we have to work these days to update our education and training to maintain a sort of evergreen expertise:

Recently, though, I’ve had the chance to think a bit more about the emotional impacts of losing our sense of future direction.

We orient ourselves amidst change by looking for familiar landmarks, comfortable analogies between the new and the known, parallels that allow us to apply common sense to uncommon situations.

When we face a moderate tempo of change, this reference to the ordinary works — and comforts us.

But when we face rapid upheavals, it breaks down.

We find ourselves facing personal discontinuity, since if the world is suddenly different than we thought it was, our lives are different than the ones we thought we were living. We experience horizon collapse, as our experience and common sense no longer offer us a way of anticipating what comes next. We may even confront despair, as the world around us becomes so unfamiliar it just feels wrong.

That’s when it really helps to remember that we should feel this way, at least initially.

The planetary discontinuity we’re in is unprecedented. We’re not supposed to instantly adapt to that. We have to undertake a process of becoming at home in the present.

—Alex

PS: The ninth Personal Climate Strategy: The Basics class is coming up on Thursday, March 19th at 12pm PST // 8pm GMT! Get an introduction to a proven system for building a rugged decision-making framework, ready for times of increasing stress and disruption. Considering relocation? Planning for your kids or grandkids? Mapping out the future of your business? This might be for you.

Sign up by March 10th and save $100!

PPS: If you find these newsletters and podcasts helpful, please let others know:

In this episode of When We Are, I talk about those insisting that you can’t possibly choose a safer place to weather the climate crisis, because every place is endangered.

I discuss why this claim is obviously wrong (some places are, in fact, relatively safe), and also who benefits from making it.

Like every part of the climate crisis, our understanding of risk and ruggedization are undermined by predatory delay and denialism. Paradoxically, the repeated message that nowhere is safe makes it easier to convince us to ignore the dangers around us. Why pay attention to risk if there’s nothing we can do about it, right?

I hope you’ll give this short episode a listen.

You might also want to check out these recent letters:

Why are those with risk-exposed assets fighting so hard to avoid a reckoning with climate risk? Because the Brittleness Bubble is deflating, fast.

- Interested in creating your a climate strategy for your own life? My next live, eight-class Personal Climate Strategy Workshop begins on February 12th! Get early access to the Early-Bird discount when you enter your email at the bottom of this page (we'll send you the details ASAP).

- Need expert guidance around your own climate planning, or want to discuss a business idea? Schedule a private Climate Strategy Consultation with me.

- Let’s connect on Bluesky, LinkedIn or Facebook

- Check out my books: Worldchanging (which recently celebrated its 20th anniversary) and Carbon Zero

- View my TED Global talks on sustainability and cities.

- This podcast, When We Are, is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world. Please subscribe, rate and review!

You’re probably less doomed than you think.

If you spend much time trying to figure out how to ready yourself for this accelerating climate crisis, you will likely encounter the idea that there’s nothing you can do. Game over, man.

You don’t have to look very far to find people ringing in the apocalypse and inviting you to lie back and greet the collapse. Writing and teaching about climate foresight, solutions-based thinking and personal climate strategies over the years, I’ve had hundreds of people (almost all dudes) go out of their way to tell me how there’s no hope, nothing to be done, our ruin is upon us and I’m an idiot to suggest otherwise.

I, alas, tend to base my foresight on facts, and here’s the fact: this is not the end of everything. We have already likely avoided the worst-case scenarios, even if we have locked in a magnitude of crisis many of us worked hard to prevent. It is not too late to limit global heating and ecological collapse, and even the harsh future we’re tumbling towards is still a future full of choices.

A lot of people face grim options in battered and brittle communities, sure, but almost everyone still has options. Most listeners to podcasts like mine — educated, informed, and better-resourced than many — have an array of opportunities to make workable plans, seek relatively safety, ruggedize our lives and work with others to ready our communities for what’s coming. Most of us are far from powerless. A lot of us may in fact find that meeting the planetary crisis liberates us to live lives of greater purpose, connection and secure prosperity than the lives we live today.

We may not yet personally know how to start building those lives, but that’s a different problem.

Give it a listen…

Alex

If you want to learn more about your own options for the future, my Personal Climate Strategy: The Basics class is a great place to start. The last class of 2025 will be held tomorrow Tuesday, December 16th, from 12pm - 2pm PST via Zoom (yes, it will be recorded!). Registration closes tomorrow, December 16th, at 11:00am PST.

This is your chance to learn the foundational components and frameworks for understanding planetary discontinuity: How it impacts your choices and key decision timelines, and how to make better informed choices about your present and future.

Almost 500 people have taken this short intensive (from all around the planet), and we have a great group forming for this class.

Registrants also get special discounts and early access to my in-depth Personal Climate Strategy Workshop (next one coming in late-January)

Step into 2026 feeling more ready and confident.

Get all the class details and sign up here: https://alexsteffen.thinkific.com/products/courses/personal-climate-strategy-class

Want to know what others think? For a review of my basics class, check out “How to Prepare Yourself For an Uncertain Future - The Review.” For a review of my workshop, read “Alex Steffen’s Personal Climate Strategy Workshop: A Review.“

Soft denialism is climate denialism that denies not the reality of climate change, but rather its importance.

In this podcast, I touch on the TrumpII-era resurgence of soft denialism, Bill Gates’ misguided climate memo, and the Atlantic’s claim that “climate adaptation is indistinguishable from efforts to improve human welfare.”

Along the way, I explain why failing to understand the climate crisis as a discontinuity in human affairs means failing to understand it at all.

The recently-published 2025 State of the Climate Report: a planet on the brink can be found here.

A news item that came across my desk after I recorded this, but that reinforces my point: Iceland deems possible Atlantic current collapse a security risk.

“Iceland has designated the potential collapse of a major Atlantic Ocean current system a national security concern and an existential threat, enabling its government to strategize for worst-case scenarios, the country’s climate minister told Reuters.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, current brings warm water from the tropics northward toward the Arctic, and the flow of warm water helps keep Europe’s winters mild.

But as warming temperatures speed the thaw of Arctic ice and cause meltwater from Greenland’s ice sheet to pour into the ocean, scientists warn the cold freshwater could disrupt the current’s flow. …

Other climate ministries and meteorological offices across Northern Europe told Reuters they are funding more research while weighing possible risks in their climate adaptation plans. Ireland’s weather service said its scientists briefed the country’s prime minister last year and a parliamentary committee last month. Norway’s environment ministry said it was “seeking to deepen our understanding of the issue through new research” before determining whether to classify AMOC as a security risk.”

Remember, we are only at the beginning.

This podcast, When We Are, is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world. If you like what you’re hearing, please take a minute to rate the show. In Apple podcasts, go to the podcast’s main show page and scroll down to “Ratings & Reviews,” then click the star ratings. This really helps more people find the show. Thank you!

In my last podcast, I laid out why our horizons of concern are so important.

In particular, I talked about how having kids (or grandkids or nieces and nephews, or chosen family, or whatever) makes us care about events that many still consider far off in the future… but that will be within their lifetimes.

Having a longer decision horizon means planning for a wildly different world, and doing our best to set these young people up for success.

But what if you are the young person? What if you’re just getting a start in life? How can you find a path that will lead you into a better life, even in this harder future?

I don’t have a one-size-fits-all answer, unfortunately. There’s no formula that spits out the optimal personal climate plan.

What this podcast does offer is a short list of insights that might help you answer these questions for yourself.

If you want to delve more deeply into the ideas I discuss, you might find these links helpful:

No one wants it to be true.

Discontinuity is the Job.

Old thinking will break your brain.

The biggest error of my working life (so far).

Letting Go of Everything We Expected

Please feel free to share this one with anyone in your life who you think might benefit.

Alex

- The Guardian covered my work recently, in a piece titled, “‘All of his guns will do nothing for him’: lefty preppers are taking a different approach to doomsday.”

- Find me on Bluesky.

- I’ve spoken with the media hundreds of times. I was featured in a NY Times Magazine piece, "This Isn't the California I Married." My writing was the jumping-off point for an episode of This American Life titled Unprepared for What Has Already Happened, as well as the podcasts Without; The Big Story; Everybody In the Pool and 99% Invisible’s Not Built for This series.

This podcast, When We Are, is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world. If you like what you’re hearing, please take a minute to rate the show. In Apple podcasts, go to the podcast’s main show page and scroll down to “Ratings & Reviews,” then click the star ratings. This really helps more people find the show. Thank you!

In this podcast, I talk about our horizons of concern. I discuss what it means to love kids who will experience the full blast of the climate crisis, decades from now.

When facing threats that are fast-moving and increasingly chaotic, it’s natural to want a simple answer. The more threat and confusion we feel, the simpler the answer we’re likely to seek. Someone is always prepared to provide those simple answers, for profit or political advantage.

We see this in the field of climate foresight, where a wide range of ratings and scores and lists and trainings and survival products are newly available for purchase. Looking for a way to calm your climate anxiety with a soothing bath salt, bug out to a supposed climate haven or build a bunker to save yourself from societal breakdown? Two minutes of Googling and a valid credit card will find you someone willing to tell you what you want to hear.

But in real life, here in the planetary crisis, there are no simple, one-size-fits-all answers.

Which is okay, because we don’t need simple answers. What we need is an increased capacity for making good decisions in unprecedented situations.

The discontinuities unfolding around us will not be “solved” in our lifetimes—or for generations to come. We won’t be returning to past stabilities, and there is no new stability we can now hope for if we just cut carbon fast enough.

Instead we need to understand personal climate strategies as evolving tools. We should make critical decisions before we lose the option to make them, but also be aware that there are no permanent solutions in an era of ongoing large-scale transformations. We’re planning with imperfect information, and each person or family has different needs and constraints.

One way in which our needs differ profoundly is our timelines.

If you’re retired and single, without kids, accepting the short-term odds on increasingly probable catastrophes might be a valid choice. Short planning horizons let us discount future risks.

Taking those same chances becomes reckless, though, when we consider the prospects for our kids or the young people we care about in general. Our horizon of concern dictates that we ready ourselves for a world beset by chaos and calamity, in part so we can help our kids be ready in turn.

Our popular debate still treats 2050 as far ahead, and 2100 as another world. Yet babies born today in wealthy countries are statistically likely to live to see the year 2100.

And 2100 will be a tough time.

Paradoxically, the farther ahead we’re thinking, the more important making today’s big decisions in foresighted ways becomes.

Adaptability is key, but so is getting to relative safety while it’s still affordable. So is updating our worldviews and skillsets. So is investing attentively. So is strengthening our ability to be see this new era for what it is. And so, as well, is growing purpose-driven conversations about the future we face with people we care for.

How far ahead does your horizon of concern stretch?

Alex

PS: Articles I cite in the podcast:

Global emergence of unprecedented lifetime exposure to climate extremes

“Under a 1.5 °C pathway, 52% of people born in 2020 will experience unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves. If global warming reaches 3.5 °C by 2100, this fraction rises to 92% for heatwaves, 29% for crop failures and 14% for river floods.”

[Unprecedented: "extremes above the 99.99th percentile of exposure expected in a pre-industrial climate."] 1-in-10,000 year occurrences.

Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets

“[C]urrent rates of SLR could increase rapidly with only small changes in temperature. Identifying temperature thresholds for each ice sheet is, therefore, critically important, with recent work suggesting best estimates for the GrIS and WAIS at +1.5 °C

“[D]espite recent advances, few ice sheet models accurately reproduce the rapid mass loss from ice sheets over the last few decades, suggesting uncertainties may be larger than assumed, even for low emissions scenarios. Indeed, while models are effective in exploring parametric uncertainty, they are less well suited for capturing epistemic uncertainties. This point is highlighted by an analysis of expert judgement94, which found much higher uncertainties associated with ice sheet contributions to sea level, e.g. a GMSL rise >2 m by 2100 fell within the 90th percentile credible range for a high emissions scenario…”

The Guardian covered my work recently, in a piece titled, “‘All of his guns will do nothing for him’: lefty preppers are taking a different approach to doomsday.”

- Find me on Bluesky.

- Check out my books: Worldchanging and Carbon Zero

- View my TED Global talks on sustainability and cities.

- I’ve spoken with the media hundreds of times. I was featured in a NY Times Magazine piece, "This Isn't the California I Married." My writing was the jumping-off point for an episode of This American Life titled Unprepared for What Has Already Happened, as well as the podcasts Without; The Big Story; Everybody In the Pool and 99% Invisible’s Not Built for This series.

This podcast, When We Are, is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world. Please rate, review, follow and share these episodes (it helps more people find the show). Thank you!

Hey folks,

This is a bit of a longer podcast, where I unpack some of the uncomfortable realities of this present moment in the planetary crisis — and why we need a new approach to solutions thinking and chosen optimism.

Some of the ideas discussed:

* How I’ve been reluctant to engage the more conflict-generating parts of climate foresight in public, but am done being circumspect.

* The violent reaction to knowledge, expertise and authority being recontextualized by discontinuity.

* Moving from a time of climate action as solution to climate action as harm reduction.

* The staggering scale of needed climate responses, and their steepening nature.

* The impossibility of saving many communities from grim futures, even if we mount a currently-implausible set of national and international ruggedization and mass-relocation efforts.

* The necessity of responding as effectively as we can, despite the certainty that much will be lost, in unfair ways, and millions face some pretty tough futures.

* The need to envision and articulate futures of relative safety, partial stability and limited inequity — and to embrace building rapidly and at scale to secure those futures.

* The default future of brittle places: brittleness traps, unofficial abandonment, transapocalyptic local collapses.

* How anti-climate right being far more aggressive and focused on destroying our capacities to respond than largely liberal climate advocates have been in trying to build them up.

* Trump’s attacks on climate diplomacy, environmental law, climate planning, clean energy, disaster preparedness and response, risk management, even basic science itself.

* The billionaire predators and their allies who foresee luxury survival compounds for themselves — and walls, debt and profitable exploitation for everyone else. People who look at the breaking of the future as their chance to try to cement their hold on dynastic wealth and unchallengeable power.

* The need for building rugged sustainability into the fabric of communities in relatively safe places, both for its own sake and as a counter-balance to reactionary disaster exploitation. Successful climate response demands a giant building boom.

* The less we build, the tighter the climate-relocation bottleneck will get.

* Why personal climate strategies are no longer luxuries, and time is short.

As always, thank you for tuning in.

Alex

The Guardian covered my work recently, in a piece titled, “‘All of his guns will do nothing for him’: lefty preppers are taking a different approach to doomsday.”

- Find me on Bluesky.

- Check out my books: Worldchanging and Carbon Zero

- View my TED Global talks on sustainability and cities.

- I’ve spoken with the media hundreds of times. I was featured in a NY Times Magazine piece, "This Isn't the California I Married." My writing was the jumping-off point for an episode of This American Life titled Unprepared for What Has Already Happened, as well as the podcasts Without; The Big Story; Everybody In the Pool and 99% Invisible’s Not Built for This series.

This podcast, When We Are, is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world. Please rate, review, follow and share these episodes (it helps more people find the show). Thank you!

The Trump gang has continued their chaos attack on America, most recently by gutting the next National Climate Assessment, including dismissing the group of scientists and experts preparing it.

In this podcast, I quickly explain:

* What the NCA is, and why it’s so useful.

* Why clear climate assessments, delivered through transparent processes, are so critical to climate foresight — both in America and around the world.

* What it means for each of us, as individuals, to try to make good future decisions when the best climate foresight is increasingly private, proprietary and developed behind closed doors, available only to large companies and very wealthy individuals.

It’s not cheerful material, but it’s important. Thanks for taking the time to listen.

If you’re interested in learning how to make sense of and manage climate discontinuity in your own life, you might consider taking my introductory class, Ruggedize Your Life: The Basics

My next live class will happen on Thursday, May 15th from 11:00am - 1:00pm Pacific Standard Time on Zoom. (Class will be recorded for those who cannot attend live.) Registration is open and filling up. (A few low-cost seats remain for those who need them — use code RYLSAVE100 at check out).

» You can learn more about Ruggedize Your Life: The Basics.

» Skip straight to registering yourself for the class.

My personal climate strategy classes were recently featured in The Guardian in a piece titled, “‘All of his guns will do nothing for him’: lefty preppers are taking a different approach to doomsday.”

Notes for this podcast:

“Being too far ahead is the same thing as being wrong.” —James Allworth

If you talk about the future, you risk having a market that's still unprepared to see the value in what you're offering to them. But sometimes what was too far ahead becomes exactly what people now need to know.

We're seeing a sea change in climate foresight. An abrupt collision with reality, that is snapping forward a whole set of conversations about strategy, the future and the perils and opportunities of our moment.

One fundamental change that's happening right now is the understanding that the planetary crisis IS our world. This is not an issue, but an era, and planning for life in that era is the only kind of planning that will work.

The suddenly widespread discussion of 3ºC futures is a perfect example. While it is possible we may end up at 3ºC sometime towards the end of the century, I don’t think it’s a very likely outcome. But 3ºC is an attention-arresting number: the magnitude of change it would bring is so large, thinking about it becomes a wind tunnel for testing all sorts of institutional assumptions.

A second change is a spreading realization that accelerating future risks aren't future dangers, they're present losses.

A recent Allianz SE commentary says what I've been saying for 20 years, but it offers an important benchmark about how fast the debate is moving now.

What’s unsuited for the climate we now live in, is worth less than we think. The scale of the brittleness bubble around us, and how, on our current trajectory, without an absolutely massive reallocation of resourses towards climate response, we will see much of the world suffer devaluation and capacity erosion.

A third shift is an abrupt recognition of the scale of the gap between what is needed and what we have.

Our widespread failure to adapt to new conditions.

Trump's chaos attack on the nation’s climate science and risk mitigation capacities.

The growing importance of places being either organically safer than elsewhere (by virtue of geography or luck, or readily ruggedizable, or both).

Why on a three degree trajectory, relative safety becomes the most valuable commodity in the world. (27:48). And right now, it is still seriously underpriced (that won't last forever).

A forth emerging change is the understanding that our encounter with discontinuity is only the beginning.

Why it's incorrect to think that the end of continuity equals collapse.

The kinds of big moves demanded now themselves change the world, undermining the value of the brittle and out-of-date and increasing demand for rugged and responsive systems, communities and institutions.

Effective strategies today make that discontinuous world advantageous.

Huge opportunities that exist within discontinuity. The competition to realize those opportunities is itself a major change dynamic. There’s growing awareness that the prizes to be won in large-scale climate response are of a far greater magnitude than discussions of “green business” or the clean economy would lead any of us to believe.

We're in a new moment, and being “too far ahead” is turning out to be ready for the present.

Thanks for tuning in,

Alex

This is part of my new podcast, When We Are, available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world. If you found this discussion helpful, please subscribe, rate and review the show so that we can reach more listeners. Thank you!

- Find me on Bluesky.

- Check out my books: Worldchanging and Carbon Zero

- View my TED Global talks on sustainability and cities.

- I’ve spoken with the media hundreds of times. Recently, I was featured in a NY Times Magazine piece, "This Isn't the California I Married." My writing was the jumping-off point for an episode of This American Life titled Unprepared for What Has Already Happened, as well as the podcasts Without; The Big Story; Everybody In the Pool and 99% Invisible’s Not Built for This series.

Reminder: My intensive Crash Course in Personal Ruggedization begins Tuesday. Registration ends tonight at 11:59 pm Pacific time.

Ready to sign up? Click the button below.

Or click this link https://app.acuityscheduling.com/schedule/21f79c52/?appointmentTypeIds[]=73970428

Recognizing when we are can be a life-changing experience.

In this podcast I explore how, for a growing number of us, it no longer feels enough to simply acknowledge that climate change and the planetary crisis are real, or even to sound the alarm about the magnitude of the problems we face.

Instead, we find ourselves wanting to talk about our life, work and future in the context of unprecedented discontinuities — and the disruptive responses they demand.

This crisis is an era, not an issue. We want to be in conversation with others about how it feels to live in this new era, not simply agree (or argue) about it’s seriousness.

There is, in short, a deep hunger for the meeting of context and connection in our relationships. Real connection is grounded in a shared experience. For those who’ve seen what’s happening, shared lived experience of profound discontinuity is the foundation for meaningful conversations about the world as a whole.

That shared experience is also what gives real depth to discussion of our hopes, dreams and ambitions. One of the things that older worldviews can’t encompass is the notion that continuity is gone, and we won’t be getting “normal” back — and that discontinuous change also opens up new possibilities.

When every discussion of the planetary future (to the extent it’s discussed at all) centers on how bad it’s getting, there’s no opening to discuss the genuinely profound opportunities in front of us. (Which, in some settings, is the point of keeping the conversation grim, as I’ve written.)

What a relief it is to find yourself in company with folks whose outlooks don’t instantly veer apocalyptic with the demise of past certainties! It’s so liberating to talk with people who — without denying the seriousness of the crisis — are open to the huge new opportunities ahead of us, the ambitions for change at scale that might prove transformative, the kinds of lives that can prosper because they are better-suited to the world as it is. Who understand that discontinuity is the job.

As I wrote before, about the ways old thinking hampers our understanding of this moment,

Events being unprecedented does not make them beyond comprehension. The loss of continuity does not mean a descent into blind chaos. We can learn to thrive amidst discontinuity, disruption, upheaval. There are thousands of people teaching themselves how, right now.

Those of us who understand unprecedented discontinuity as the beginning of the future (and not simply as the end of the past) may still be few in number, but we’re starting to have the most important conversations anyone is having, anywhere.

If you want to be a part of those conversations, you’re in the right place.

My intensive Crash Course in Personal Ruggedization begins next week.

Five, two-hour classes held via Zoom on Tuesdays and Thursdays (March 11th, 13th, 18th, 20th and 25th). A 90 minute wrap-up Q&A discussion on Thursday, March 27th. Class Times: 11:00am Pacific Standard Time (PST)

Ready to sign up? Click the button below.

Or click this link https://app.acuityscheduling.com/schedule/21f79c52/?appointmentTypeIds[]=73970428

Friends,

If you feel your compass spinning these days, you are definitely not alone.

The sheer speed of planetary change and the chaos unfolding in our politics, economy and international affairs feels wildly disorienting, even before we add this surge of disinformation, climate denial, criminality and predatory delay.

If it was hard plotting a course through the major discontinuities of climate and ecological chaos before, it can now feel completely bewildering.

But it’s never been more urgent to have your own plan, and not wait for someone official to tell you what to do.

That’s because, as I’ve said,

Collective climate action is no longer a substitute for individual climate readiness.

The crisis is here, and no society is ready. No matter what we all do together to limit the crisis, we’re each personally going to have to prepare ourselves for life in a hotter, more chaotic world.

As climate adaptation researcher Jesse Keenan sums it up, “You’re on your own.”

No one is coming to save you and your family from the escalating dangers and disruptions around you.

Even in the most-fortunate, best-governed and wealthiest communities on Earth, your family’s security and prosperity still depend on you taking responsibility for your own future.

You need a strategy for ruggedizing your life.

The mayhem we’re seeing in Washington DC and around the world only makes embracing that responsibility yourself more urgent.

These are not easy decisions to make on your own.

—

So many people are facing tough decisions on a tight timeline right now.

Does this sound familiar? You might be...

* Growing more alarmed about the climate and ecological dangers around you

* Relocating due to recent fires or flooding (or other climate-related impacts) and needing to quickly choose a new place to live.

* Weighing if you should sell your home, and how soon.

* Considering the ramifications of rebuilding in a climate-impacted location.

* Feeling unsure about how to assess the pros/cons of a potential property or getting lost in risk maps and climate ratings.

* Wishing you had a coherent, expert framework for assessing relative safety when considering a move, whether you're moving across town or to a different country.

* Helping others navigate these kinds of complex choices, as a real estate agent, investment advisor, consultant, therapist, teacher or coach, and wanting to better serve them.

* Wanting to learn in a group of thoughtful people who take these issues as seriously as you do.

In this crisis, speed is everything.

The planetary crisis is worsening fast, climate costs are rising, and competition for homes in relatively safe communities is increasing.

Well, my six-session A Crash Course in Personal Ruggedization works fast. It delivers concentrated insights, real-world examples, select readings, and discussions to give participants a strong foundation for making clear-headed choices in discontinuous times.

I don’t give simple answers to what are deeply complex problems, but I do equip you to make better decisions.

—

The next Crash Course starts a week from today.

Five, two-hour classes held on Tuesdays and Thursdays (March 11th, 13th, 18th, 20th and 25th). A 90 minute wrap-up discussion on Thursday, March 27th. Class Times: 11:00am Pacific Standard Time (PST) (Classes will be recorded, and recordings will be sent following each class.

The deadline is midnight, this Sunday, March 9th. click this link to sign up:

https://app.acuityscheduling.com/schedule/21f79c52/?appointmentTypeIds[]=73970428

—

In this crash course, we’ll cover five main topics:

MAKING SENSE OF A COMPLEX CRISISClimate chaos means the world no longer works the way it used to, and things are getting stranger by the day. How do we understand this crisis? How it is discontinuous with the expectations we were raised to have? How bad could it get? What are we preparing for?

SCOUTING FOR RELATIVE SAFETYPlace is the prime pivot point of all climate strategy. How do we judge regions and assess their risks? What are the major risks to look out for, and how do we measure them for any given region? What is relative safety, and where can we find it? Should we move across the world, or across town — or dig in where we are?

FINDING (OR BUILDING) COMMUNITIES THAT WORK IN TURBULENT TIMESIn any given area, some communities will respond in ways that help their citizens thrive, and some will fail. What is climate brittleness and why is it so dangerous to our prospects? How do we evaluate cities and local efforts? What are some of the indicators of places that are being built and governed to be more rugged in the face of climate chaos? How do we buffer against political upheaval?

MAKING A HOME THAT CAN WEATHER THE STORMHow do we pick a specific place to build our future? What should we look for in a home, a neighborhood and a community? What are the costs and benefits of urban, suburban and exurban lives? How do we move quickly enough to outpace the coming climate-driven housing bottleneck? What are the opportunities and perils of relocation in politically turbulent times? Why might the best-sited and best-run places see boom times in the coming decades?

CLIMATE-PROOFING OUR LIVES AND FAMILIESHow do we start building a rugged life, in all parts of life? What’s most important to us as people as we build our personal climate strategy? How do we align our family and household, career and investments, citizenship and ethics to new realities? How might we talk with our family, friends, neighbors and colleagues to include them in our planning? How do we make this crisis into an opportunity for deeper connection and purpose?

By the end of March, it is our goal to help you feel more confident in:

* Making clear decisions in the face of unprecedented planetary discontinuities;

* Assessing climate risks and trends (present and future);

* Planning your family's climate strategy (where to live, how to ruggedize your life, and how to bring climate foresight into the wide range of decisions this crisis is influencing);

* Feeling more grounded, more at home in the present and ready for the future.

It’s getting pretty damn real out there, folks, but 2025 can be the year you make yourself ready for what’s on its way.

In the last five years, I’ve taught more than a dozen courses, with more than 400 participants, and had hundreds of other one-on-one conversations with folks about their plans for responding to climate discontinuity in their own lives. I’ve built a course that reflects everything I’ve learned in the process.

Questions? Here are some of the ones we get asked the most:

1) Is this course designed for people outside of the U.S., too?

Yes! While most of the examples and maps are from a U.S. context, I have traveled extensively for years, and can toggle contexts easily. The most important insights are universal.

2) What if I'm most interested in ruggedizing my business? Will this course help?

To make smarter personal choices in the face of the climate crisis, we learn to see (and anticipate changes in) the interconnected systems around us. Those same insights can also help us make better decisions in business and investing.

3) I can't make all the classes, are they recorded?

Every call is recorded and shared with the participants. Live attendance is not mandatory (though it is encouraged).

4) Will this course detail specific places that are safer to live?

Much of this class is about choosing safer places to relocate to. I don't recommend specific places (in part because each person has their own needs), but I provide a straight-forward framework for choosing a place to go and discuss the pros and cons of certain areas. A number of past participants have found this criteria clear enough to pick safer homes and relocate (including two participants who relocated out of the path of the LA fires before those wildfire struck).

5) How much interaction is there? How much access will I have to Alex?

We do 30 minutes or so of group discussion at the end of every class, and there is a 90 minute group Q&A wrap up call at the end. I am available to answer questions (and for deep-discount coaching calls) during and after the course. If you want more guidance, we can arrange one-on-one calls to follow up.

6) Do I have to be a climate expert or work in a climate job for this to make sense?

Though many participants work in climate-related fields and businesses, the course starts from the basics and builds systemic understanding from there. No special knowledge is needed to benefit, and a list of resources for further learning is provided.

7) What if I decide this course isn’t right for me?

We want you to have a great experience. We also value your investment of time and resources. If, after the first live call, you truly believe that the course is not right for you, you have until Thursday, March 13 at 10:00am PST to request a 90% refund.

Ready to sign up? Click the button below.

Or click this link https://app.acuityscheduling.com/schedule/21f79c52/?appointmentTypeIds[]=73970428

Testimonials:

“For anyone interested in personally preparing yourself and your family for climate change impacts, boy do I have a great recommendation for you… one of the most impactful learning experiences I’ve had on any topic in the last decade.

All you have to believe is that the future is likely to be more risky and uncertain, whether from climate change or just natural disasters, political instability, social unrest, armed conflict, economic or supply chain disruption, etc.

Heck, you could completely disbelieve climate change is happening at all, and this course would still be transformational because its focus is on preparing you and your family and community for a wide range of potential scenarios, whatever those might be. [Alex] completely dismantles typical “prepper” advice, showing how fundamentally misguided it is for almost any future scenario (the actual best way to prepare is completely counter-intuitive).

Most of all, the students and community that are part of Steffen’s courses are simply phenomenal. Thoughtful, wise, accomplished but also empathetic people, many of whom are playing active roles in shaping policy, economics, planning, and business.

Alex addresses a remarkable range of holistic topics, from the all-important choice of where to locate yourself, to the psychological mindset shifts needed, to basic provisioning and preparing for utility interruption, to adapting your career, finances, and business for likely future changes.

I ‘10 out of 10’ recommend it.”

Tiago Forte, Forte Labs, participant

*

“The best way to get smart about how to live through the cascading climate chaos of our time is to always read Alex Steffen.”

Jeff Goodell, Author of The Heat Will Kill You First

*

“When all the others are just talking about what systems-collapse or planetary crisis look like, Alex's work already gives you a framework on how to navigate it with confidence and with the clear possibility of creating a thriving and hardened future for you, your loved ones, and the communities you serve.”

Justin D'Atri, Group Sustainability Transformation Lead, Zurich Insurance Group, Participant

*

“I've worried for a long time about what I can do about the climate crisis, and how to prepare. Several years ago, I began reading Alex Steffen's work and for the first time felt some understanding about what is going on in the political sphere around climate change and the predatory delay of business people and politicians. I also became inspired by Alex's aspirational imaginings about how we might transform life in our cities to be more beautiful, sustainable, and enjoyable.

I was intrigued when I saw Alex's Crash Course offering for personal ruggedization. At first my partner and I weren't sure if the cost of time and money would be worth it for our family. But then Alex sent an email headlined, “The Crisis Doesn't Care,” and that was it. We had experienced that truth, through the pandemic and our housing situations. We knew keenly how it felt to be left behind. The crises hadn't cared, and neither had elected officials, or the business people profiting from our hardships. We needed to be informed and prepared for navigating this unfolding era of climate change, and Alex's Crash Course was an incredible foundation.

Through Alex's course, my partner and I gained invaluable insight about what's going on and how to evaluate which factors are most important for our family as we navigate these difficult changes. We also felt excited and empowered to take action. Alex shared illustrative examples of places around the world where people are taking the climate crisis as an opportunity to greatly improve quality of life.

Thanks to Alex's course, our family took decisive action and moved to a new city. We love our new home. We've jumped right in to work alongside our neighbors who are already ruggedizing the city. There's much to do. We are so grateful that Alex helped us quickly identify the important factors to consider and set us on a path for being better prepared to care for ourselves, our neighbors and all in our city and wider region. Alex Steffen's Crash Course in Personal Ruggedization was life-changing for us, and absolutely worth our investment of money and time.”

Maia, participant

*

“Alex has been thinking about the impacts of climate change longer than most people. Through the Crash Course in Personal Ruggedization, Alex provides insight to the more likely future scenarios and helps attendees position themselves, physically and mentally, to avoid the worst impacts and take advantage of the opportunities that are created. It is a very thought-provoking course and also provides the opportunity to network with like minded people around the globe. Highly recommended.”

Jeff Roulston, participant

In this podcast, I react to the recent New York Times piece How Can I Lower My Climate Risk When Buying a House?

The piece begins by noting the rising concern people have with the growing risks they take on when buying a home:

“A question we get from readers more and more is some version of this: How should the growing risks from climate change affect my decision to buy a house? Or, if I buy a house, where should I buy, and what should I keep in mind?

“It seems especially urgent now, as insurance costs in some parts of the country have far outstripped the rate of inflation. Here’s some advice from experts.”

It’s a good advice, as far as it goes.

I explore what’s missing from the discussion, and why intelligent climate relocation is not a simple matter of, say, comparing climate risk ratings on a FEMA map.

I briefly explain my “triangle of brittleness” framework, and why smart relocation takes looking more deeply into the strengths and weaknesses of different locations — and why the best answer will be different for each of us, based on our lives, resources and priorities.

I also explain why discontinuity and loss only seem to be problems of the future, and how quickly recognition of risk could lead to big economic shifts. Urgency is appropriate when figuring out your strategy for life in a worsening planetary crisis.

—Alex

Other news:

- This new podcast, When We Are, is also available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world, should that be your preferred way of listening. Please subscribe, rate and review.

- My work was mentioned in two news stories in the last weeks, one in The Atlantic about the breakdown of sense-making in social media and one in The Guardian about the California fires. Also, a reader asked where they might find this interview I did back in 2022: How to ruggedize your life and prepare for... whatever comes next.

- I have a recent piece in Mother Jones, Trump Won’t Confront the Climate Crisis. He’ll Feast Off It.

- Stay connected on social: Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Bluesky

- I’ve spoken with the media hundreds of times. I was featured in a NY Times Magazine piece, "This Isn't the California I Married" and My writing was the jumping-off point for the This American Life episode Unprepared for What Has Already Happened, as well as the podcasts Without; The Big Story; Everybody In the Pool and 99% Invisible’s Not Built for This series. I also spoke recently with PBS News Hour about why there are no climate havens.

Hey folks,

How much will our refusal to acknowledge the climate crisis cost us?

One way to start answering that question is to talk about brittleness.

Brittleness is the quality of being subject to sudden, difficult-to-reverse failures.

Climate brittleness describes brittleness created by the gap between the conditions for which our systems were built, and the different, more-chaotic circumstances of the planetary crisis around us.

Places and systems which are brittle to climate impacts are vulnerable to loss. That vulnerability, in turn, makes them less valuable than they were previously. We are surrounded by lost value, a situation I call the brittleness bubble.

First Street Foundation has taken a new stab at estimating how much lost value we face here in the United States, in their new report, The 12th National Risk Assessment: Property Prices in Peril. (This article summarizes some of their findings.)

Their numbers are staggering: $1.47 trillion dollars of lost real estate value over the next 30 years, impacting 84% of U.S. communities, but concentrated in 21,750 “climate abandonment neighborhoods.”

This loss stems from the combination of worsening uninsurability (leading to escalating home insurance rates) and diminishing economic vitality (leading to out-migration — they predict 55 million Americans moving away from climate risks by 2055).

In this podcast, I explore the report’s findings, give my take on the situation, and explain some of what I think is still missing from our wider debate on the brittleness bubble, crisis migration and climate foresight in general.

Thanks for listening!

Alex

PS: Tomorrow is the last day of the Early Bird discount for my Crash Course in Personal Ruggedization. If you know you want to take this Spring’s course, and want to save 25% on the tuition, use the code CCPRSPRING25 at checkout by midnight (Pacific) tomorrow, Friday the 21st. Click the green button below to sign up:

- This new podcast, When We Are, is also available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world, should that be your preferred way of listening. Please subscribe, rate and review.

- My work was mentioned in two news stories in the last weeks, one in The Atlantic about the breakdown of sense-making in social media and one in The Guardian about the California fires. Also, a reader asked where they might find this interview I did back in 2022: How to ruggedize your life and prepare for... whatever comes next.

- I have a recent piece in Mother Jones, Trump Won’t Confront the Climate Crisis. He’ll Feast Off It.

- Stay connected on social: Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Bluesky

- I’ve spoken with the media hundreds of times. I was featured in a NY Times Magazine piece, "This Isn't the California I Married" and My writing was the jumping-off point for an episode of This American Life titled Unprepared for What Has Already Happened, as well as the podcasts Without; The Big Story; Everybody In the Pool and 99% Invisible’s Not Built for This series. I also spoke recently with PBS News Hour about why there are no climate havens.

Hey folks—

If you feel, right now, like you are waking up to a magnitude of upheaval you didn’t expect — if you feel really unsure about what it means and what you should do to manage the resulting chaos in your own life — you are not alone.

Working through this sudden collision with planetary reality is work we will all be forced to take up in the next few years.

In this podcast, I unpack discontinuity, and the ways in which it demands new thinking. That need for new thinking can leave us with feelings of personal discontinuity and alienation from our surroundings... and of a sense of disconnection from the futures we once imagined for ourselves and our children.

This presents an opportunity, though. Discontinuity is not devastation; disaster springs from our unwillingness to acknowledge it. We can reimagine the lives we’re building to thrive in discontinuity — just as we can rebuild our communities to increase their durability and capacity for change. The loss of continuity is not the end of the story, it’s the beginning.

In a strange way, letting go of the world we expected to have can give us back a future we want.

Alex

PS: My next crash course in personal ruggedization will begin at the end of the month. Details in my next newsletter.

- This new podcast, When We Are, is also available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world, should that be your preferred way of listening. Please subscribe, rate and review.

- My work was mentioned in two news stories last week, one in The Atlantic about the breakdown of sense-making in social media and one in The Guardian about the California fires. Also, though this piece didn’t reference my work, regular readers will notice a lot of my regular themes: That Giant Sucking Sound? It’s Climate Change Devouring Your Home’s Value. Finally, a reader asked where they might find this interview I did back in 2022: How to ruggedize your life and prepare for... whatever comes next.

- I have a recent piece in Mother Jones, Trump Won’t Confront the Climate Crisis. He’ll Feast Off It.

- Stay connected on social: Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Bluesky

- Check out my books: Worldchanging and Carbon Zero

- View my TED Global talks on sustainability and cities.

- I’ve spoken with the media hundreds of times. I was featured in a NY Times Magazine piece, "This Isn't the California I Married" and My writing was the jumping-off point for an episode of This American Life titled Unprepared for What Has Already Happened, as well as the podcasts Without; The Big Story; Everybody In the Pool and 99% Invisible’s Not Built for This series. I also spoke recently with PBS News Hour about why there are no climate havens.

Hey folks—

How do I remain an optimist about the human future, even as the planetary crisis worsens?

A few thoughts.

Alex

PS: A little more to chew on:

* More here on the mythological universal conversion event, and how we might think more clearly about the future.

* Why real optimism springs from grasping what fights are now winnable and why outspoken optimism is actually critical to winning those fights.

* The long-running debate about whether “optimistic” or “resolute” is the right description of this stance, and whether “steely-eyed optimism” splits the difference.

* I’ve written many times about how predatory delay is not only a strategy for playing out the end of the unsustainable, but is itself as a waning industry, for example here.

Reminder: My next live Ruggedize Your Life: the Basics class (a concentrated introductory course for planning a personal climate strategy) will be held a week from today, on Thursday, January 30th, from 11:00 am - 1:00 pm Pacific Time. (Yes, class will be recorded.)

Click the button below to save your spot:

- If you like this new podcast, When We Are, please rate, review, follow and share these episodes. Thank you!

- Stay connected on social: Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Bluesky

- I have a new piece in Mother Jones, Trump Won’t Confront the Climate Crisis. He’ll Feast Off It.

- Check out my books: Worldchanging and Carbon Zero

- View my TED Global talks on sustainability and cities.

- I’ve spoken with the media hundreds of times. Recently, I was featured in a NY Times Magazine piece, "This Isn't the California I Married." My writing was the jumping-off point for an episode of This American Life titled Unprepared for What Has Already Happened, as well as the podcasts Without; The Big Story; Everybody In the Pool and 99% Invisible’s Not Built for This series.

Hey folks—

We’ve moved from the era when avoiding the planetary crisis was the most pressing mission on Earth, to one where avoiding further catastrophe is now a subset of the challenge of responding to a climate and biosphere now in crisis.

Could there be a better time to have unchecked corruption, reinvigorated predatory delay and a general collapse of competance in Washington, D.C.?

In this impromptu podcast, I talk Trump, the lost Orderly Transition, and why reactive, forced climate response is so costly, unfair, and zero sum. Luckily, reactive, forced climate response seems to be mostly what we’ll get for at least the next half decade.

Here’s the Bill McKibben quote I bumbled:

"The most important news of last week, though you would have had to search hard to find it, was that the carbon dioxide monitoring station at Mauna Loa recorded the biggest single-year growth in co2 in its 66-year-history, rising 3.58 ppm."

Apologies as well for the work-from-home moment at the end. (My family happily and unexpectedly tumbled in the door to announce the end of my work day.)

To brighter days and better news…

Alex

PS: I’m teaching another Ruggedize Your Life: The Basics class on Thursday, January 30th. Details here.

“We know we need to move, but how soon do we need to do it?” is a question I get a lot.

There are no simple answers: every personal climate strategy is a unique set of solutions for a particular set of problems. But some of the key questions we need to ask ourselves are:

* What are we gaining by staying put? Are there future events (e.g., a child’s graduation, retirement, a job promotion) we’re looking to see through before we go?

* What are the costs of climate relocation, and will we be more or less able to meet them later?

* How close to a moment of loss in value and capacity (or even catastrophic direct climate impacts) is the place we are now? How late will be too late?

In this delightful brief tour of the tempo of discontinuity, I try to answer those questions by suggesting three basic indicators.

Which ‘indicator light’ is flashing where you live?

- Alex

A bunch of you have asked when my next personal ruggedization classes will be. I’ll be more formally announcing this in my next letter, but my next live Ruggedize Your Life: The Basics class (a concentrated 101 in planning a personal climate strategy) will be held on Thursday, January 30th, from 11:00 am - 1:00 pm Pacific Time.

If you know you want to take the class, click the link below to save your spot:

Ruggedize Your Life: The Basics

Thursday, January 30th, from 11:00 am - 1:00 pm Pacific Time.

Class will be recorded and the recording sent to all registered participants the following week.

More soon.

Alex

- My next Crash Course on Personal Ruggedization will be in February, details to come. (You can read a description of the last course here.)

- Stay connected on social: Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Bluesky

- I have a new piece in Mother Jones, Trump Won’t Confront the Climate Crisis. He’ll Feast Off It. (I don’t write the headlines…)

- Check out my books: Worldchanging and Carbon Zero

- View my TED Global talks on sustainability and cities.

- I’ve spoken with the media hundreds of times. Recently, I was featured in a NY Times Magazine piece, "This Isn't the California I Married." My writing was the jumping-off point for an episode of This American Life titled Unprepared for What Has Already Happened, as well as the podcasts Without; The Big Story; Everybody In the Pool and 99% Invisible’s Not Built for This series.

- I have a new podcast, When We Are, available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast and other podcast platforms around the world. Please check it out, rate, review, follow and share these episodes. Thank you!

In this brand new When We Are podcast, I discuss why our concept of “natural disaster” — a sudden and unexpected calamitous natural event bringing great loss from which we then recover and return to normal life — is less and less useful for understanding the world we now live in.

I also briefly discuss the movie Jaws.

Please note that When We Are is now available on Apple Podcasts, Overcast, Spotify and other platforms, if that’s how you prefer to do your listening.

Please also help me spread the word by sharing, or rating and reviewing the show wherever you listen.

Want to tell someone about this newsletter? Please share.

Thanks,

Alex

- I have a new piece in Mother Jones, Trump Won’t Confront the Climate Crisis. He’ll Feast Off It. (I don’t write the headlines…)

- Stay connected on social: Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Bluesky

- Check out my books: Worldchanging and Carbon Zero

- View my TED Global talks on sustainability and cities.

- I’ve spoken with the media hundreds of times. Recently, I was featured in a NY Times Magazine piece, "This Isn't the California I Married." My writing was the jumping-off point for an episode of This American Life titled Unprepared for What Has Already Happened, as well as the podcasts Without; The Big Story; Everybody In the Pool and 99% Invisible’s Not Built for This series.

- Visit my Bookshop shop to get John Vaillant’s Fire Weather: A True Story from a Hotter World and discover some of my other top reads.

Hey Folks—

This is episode zero of my new casual podcast for subscribers.

Give it a listen to find out more (it’s about 10 minutes long).

Here’s the show description: “The climate crisis is no longer something happening to other people, somewhere else. It's changing all our lives, right now. Few of us are ready. Join renowned climate futurist Alex Steffen and guests as we show the patterns behind the chaos, learn how to build smart climate strategies, and laugh at the absurdity of daily life in discontinuous times.”

If you like it, you’ll also be able to add it to your podcast feeds on many platforms.

I hope you enjoy When We Are!

—Alex

- I have a brand new piece in Mother Jones, Trump Won’t Confront the Climate Crisis. He’ll Feast Off It. (I don’t write the headlines…)

- Stay connected on social: Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Bluesky

- Check out my books: Worldchanging and Carbon Zero

- View my TED Global talks on sustainability and cities.

- I’ve spoken with the media hundreds of times. Recently, I was featured in a NY Times Magazine piece, "This Isn't the California I Married." My writing was the jumping-off point for an episode of This American Life titled Unprepared for What Has Already Happened, as well as the podcasts Without; The Big Story; Everybody In the Pool and 99% Invisible’s Not Built for This series.

- Visit my Bookshop shop to get China Miéville’s The City & The City and discover some of my other top reads.