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Upside

Upside

Dan Bowyer & Mads Jensen - SuperSeed

Business

Frequency: 1 episode/7d. Total Eps: 92

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This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system. 

Every week we share what's been on our mind and get under the skin of VC, investing, startups and founder psychology. 

From the team behind SuperSeed who invest in technical teams solving difficult business problems. 

The network is run on LinkedIn so join me there - https://www.linkedin.com/in/danbowyer/

With full interview audio and video uploaded to all major outlets. 

Love to hear from you - dan@superseed.com 

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Clone Wars, Euro-Meme Stocks & Magic Mushrooms

Season 1 · Episode 79

samedi 21 février 2026Duration 42:47

For the week's latest news behind the headlines affecting European Venture, startups and investing.  

Hosts: Dan Bowyer, Lomax Ward Guest: Eyal Malinger — Co-founder, Resurge Growth Partners (venture equity — the gap between VC and PE)

[02:18] Humanoid Robots at China's Spring Festival Gala Four Chinese firms showed off cable-free dancing robots. Eyal's reaction progression: "game over" → "Clone Wars" → "why are there swords near children?" China controls ~90% of humanoid shipments. H1/G1 robots going for $6-10K. Europe has… Neuro Robotics and OverSonic at Series A. Cool.

[05:59] Will Robots Replace Soldiers? Eyal: if you don't need to risk soldiers, you will use them. Lomax: nukes still deter total war, but skirmishes could proliferate. Everyone: yes, we'd have a robot butler. Lomax: depends on the price (he lives in Portugal).

[10:57] Raspberry Pi — Europe's First Meme Stock? Stock pumped after CEO bought shares + Reddit hype around OpenClaw. Trading at ~£600M. Edge AI debate ensues. Lomax: "Isn't this a time to celebrate Europe finally has its own meme stock?"

[14:36] AI Causing a Fuss: Anthropic vs The Pentagon Anthropic doesn't want autonomous kill decisions. Eyal channels Palantir's Alex Karp: "Our adversaries will not pause for theatrical debate." Lomax: Dario wants to have his cake and eat it. Everyone broadly agrees ethics are a luxury when the other side doesn't play by the rules.

[17:19] Peter Steinberger Leaves Europe for OpenAI Created OpenClaw, Europe celebrated for two weeks, then he bounced to San Francisco. Lomax: "I thought things had got better." Dan: who in Europe could've called him? Eyal: if he'd been in London instead of Austria, maybe different story. Cue weekly EU ecosystem lament. Macron pledged €30M for AI. Anthropic just raised $30B. Right.

[24:00] VC AI Toolkits — David Stark Open-Sources His Setup WhatsApp meeting briefs, auto-transcription, deal flow into HubSpot. Lomax calls it "cute." Eyal: most of this is just Zapier with extra steps. Real alpha = agentic AI that sources and approaches founders autonomously. Dan: if everyone has Harmonic, nobody has alpha.

[31:00] Munich Security Conference Recap 62nd edition. Rubio slightly less abrasive than JD Vance (low bar). Merz says the old order is over. Starmer accelerating UK defence spend to 3%. Stark (drones) raised big from Founders Fund — German defence minister uncomfortable with Peter Thiel on the cap table. Sovereignty debates continue. Lomax: "You can't tell Europe to be sovereign then beat them for being sovereign."

[37:56] Health & Bio Good News Compass Pathways nails second Phase 3 trial for synthetic psilocybin treating resistant depression — could be on market by 2027. Savo Health working on non-invasive CGM patches (goodbye arm claws).

[39:56] Deals of the Week

  • Quantonation — largest European quantum fund ever
  • Ineffable — $1B seed (!!) at $4B pre-money, led by Sequoia. David Silver (AlphaGo architect) leaves DeepMind
  • Netflix / Warner Bros M&A — Eyal hopes it signals FTC/DOJ reopening the exit valve for VC and PE

[42:30] Fin. 🎙️

Is AI Simply Making Work More Fun?

samedi 14 février 2026Duration 46:42

01:52 - Anthropic's Insane $30B Round Started as $10B rumour, became $20B in January, closed at $30B. 

03:21 - The Great Model Migration Sam finally kicked OpenAI off his iPhone homepage. Claude's in. 

08:23 - Claude Code: Mads' Love Letter Mads hasn't looked back since discovering Claude Code's skills and agentic workflows. It's not just better writing anymore—it's a whole different way of working.

09:36 - HBR Report: AI Makes Us Work MORE Generative AI isn't reducing work, it's intensifying it. Turns out when you can do everything yourself, you just... do everything yourself. Constant dopamine hits. 

14:07 - AI as Your Second Opinion Mads fed his DNA and blood work to an LLM. 

19:38 - Alphabet's 100-Year Bond Google just raised £5B more than expected. Priced like government bonds. Too big to fail, baby. 

22:59 - Your Pension is Funding US Hyperscalers €35 trillion in European savings. None of these pension holders know they're financing 100-year bonds for Google. The rules say "minimise volatility," not "maximise returns." Cool cool cool.

26:31 - European Sovereignty: Words → Action? Merz and von der Leyen saying the quiet parts loud. Two-tier EU? 28th regime? Ignoring planning rules? Also Mistral going from $25M to $400M run rate with a full sovereign stack (no US tech).

27:31 - "What Even Is an AI Business?" If you're not using AI for what you're doing... what ARE you doing? Material science? Better use AI. Biotech? Better use AI. 

30:32 - The Only Office Suite Update Was Google European governments spend billions yearly on decades-old Microsoft IP. Open source alternatives exist. Nobody cares.

31:28 - Mistral: Not Dead, Actually Dan had written them off. Turns out they're crushing it with enterprise. Not a chatbot play—it's consultancy + transformation + Anthropic-level models. 

34:50 - The China Manufacturing Model, Reversed German manufacturers using Chinese AI for factories? Probability: nil to zero. Regional fragmentation + massive AI growth = very large companies serving regional markets.

35:42 - Europe Finally Saying It Out Loud Von der Leyen threatening breakaway subset unless countries get on board. Big words from the "protein" European government. Tax attempts always flounder but... momentum feels different?

38:07 - Space: Orbex Down, Data Centres Up? UK's Orbex (low-carbon micro launcher) filed for administration. £49M debt. Government didn't support. Meanwhile: Elon eyeing Google's orbital data centre research. 

40:45 - Billionaires Should Burn Capital McCalip's plea: goad more billionaires into irrational high-variance projects that advance civilisation. "No one cares about your Loro Piana." Build cathedrals. Fund ugly metal. Light up corners of the future.

42:00 - Europe's Launch Problem No European small launcher has reached orbit. Not one. Airbus worked because we collaborated. Launch requires same logic. "We are mid-sized countries pretending we're still empires."

43:15 - Fusion: Europe's Real Shot? Should Europe double down on quantum and fusion instead of chasing AI? Mads: "Fix capital markets union first." Everything circles back.

45:04 - Deal of the Week: Olix 25-year-old British founder James de Combe raised £220M at $1B+ valuation for AI inference chips. Also runs Comind (raised £100M as a teenager). Is this our Elon without the red cap?

46:22 - Upside Closeout "Nothing happens until somebody decides to do something." More entrepreneurs. Less standing in their way. 

Hosted by Dan Bowyer & Mads Jensen Guest: Sam Marchant

Europe’s Comeback - Brexit 2.0 - Another ‘Code Red’ & Roll Up Roll Ups

Season 1 · Episode 69

samedi 6 décembre 2025Duration 45:57

Upside #69 - For the real news behind the headlines affecting European venture, startups and investing. Every week Mads, Lomax, Andrew and myself (Dan) get together and chat.

Bending Spoons

01:27 Berkshire-like roll-up; mostly debt-funded; big integration/tech-debt execution risk.

3:30 “US→Italy arbitrage”—cut expensive US costs, rebuild with top Italian talent + high-efficiency culture; cash-cow ops; high employee satisfaction.

05:13 Success likely hinges on better distribution/ops than previous owners.

Brexit + Europe’s challenges

07:01 “trade intensity” vs G7—UK uniquely diverging down since 2019; services don’t offset goods loss.

09:20 Labour red lines may shift; customs union helps goods but politically messy (standards).

11:02 IKEA label anecdote → regulatory complexity.

12:30 VW/Europe: China competition + governance/union constraints; Europe slow to reform; supply-chain ripple risks.

23:00 Ecosystem fix: more R&D, talent/immigration, cut red tape, govt as buyer; biggest issue = late-stage capital/pensions.

AI Corner
32:20 OpenAI “code red” on Google; distribution battle; OpenAI focusing on product vs ads/monetisation.

36:03 Winners = product + distribution + cost at scale (Google infra/TPUs advantage).

39:03 Anthropic IPO rumours (2026) debated: access to bigger pools vs “top of cycle” cynicism.

Deal of the week
41:54 Black Forest Labs — $300m at $3.25bn; image-model leader; strong ARR rumoured.

43:13 ICEYE — €200m at ~€2.5bn; SAR satellites; defence demand.

44:05 Expedition Growth Capital fundraise — €323m.

44:23 Neurocore — ~$2.5m; platform tooling for robotics ML teams.

God AI - A German Ecosystem Deepdive - Part Time VCs - Google Hot Or Not?

Season 1 · Episode 68

samedi 29 novembre 2025Duration 50:17

Upside #68 w/ Robin Haak (Robin Capital), Lomax (Outsized), Mads and Dan (SuperSeed).

Topics: Germany’s slowdown • Social media bans • UK budget • Solo GPs • N26 • Europe vs Big Tech • AI Corner

01:21 – Robin’s Background

100+ investments, 8 unicorns. Co-founded SmartRecruiters → sold to SAP ($100M ARR). Former GP at Revaya (€600M AUM). Now building a 50-year solo GP franchise.

03:58 – Social Media Ban for Under-16s

Mads: EU Parliament pushes advisory resolution; strong evidence social media harms teen mental health, especially girls.

06:39 – US Says “Go Easy on Big Tech”

Lomax: US Commerce voices warn EU that tech regulation ties into trade/tariff negotiations. Don’t conflate antitrust with child safety—two different battles.

10:00 – UK Budget

Improved EMI stock options - More flexible EIS / VCT rules. Nice to hear a Chancellor talk about startups & innovation.

12:17 – EU Space Surveillance

ESA launches its first military space programme (€1B). Far behind the US, but a step toward defence autonomy.

13:19 – N26 Troubles

Regulatory caps slowed growth for years, BaFin repeatedly intervened. Leadership now reshuffling. Big question: Would N26 be Revolut-sized if founded outside Germany?

18:49 – German Economy Reality Check

GDP still below 2019 levels. Insolvencies highest in a decade. Restaurants down 20–40%. Years of underinvestment in tech, infrastructure, energy. Early nuclear shutdown = higher energy costs, fallback to coal.

25:04 – Why No Nuclear Return?

Public wants it (~75%). Politics block it; ideology > pragmatism.

27:07 – German Decline Impact on Startups

ESOP improved (still heavy tax). Bureaucracy is brutal: notaries, translations, delays. Many founders incorporate Delaware C-Corp + German GmbH.

Solo GP / Part-Time VC Trend

34:21 – The Movement

US led the way: Elad Gil, Auren, Buckley.

Three types: Lifelong solo GPs. Solo-to-multi-GP founders. Part-time solo GPs (e.g., 11 Labs’ Carlos Reiner). It works at $15–30M scale; Fund II usually becomes full-time.

40:10 – OpenAI, Google & Anthropic

OpenAI may need $200B+ by 2030. Google’s Gemini 3 beating OpenAI on many benchmarks. Monetisation gap: only ~5% of ChatGPT users pay. Warren Buffett buying Google is a signal?

44:57 – The Scary Bit: God-AI

Robin cites Eric Schmidt: If an adversary builds god-AI first, “we might have to bomb it.”

We Get Slush’d - Germany Gets Space’d - As TPU’s Crush

Season 1 · Episode 67

samedi 22 novembre 2025Duration 47:25

This week in Upside #67 Mads returns from Slush with 24 one-to-ones under his belt and a head full of insights. Dan and Lomax dig into Germany’s €35B space strategy, the surprising data behind immigrant-founded unicorns, and Europe’s defence-IPO boom. They break down Vinted’s huge secondary, the EU’s attempt to kill cookie banners, and the UK’s sudden wave of AI investment initiatives.

In AI Corner: why 70% of AI startups now ship on open-source models, Google’s new TPU-trained Gemini 3, and another blowout quarter from Nvidia. Plus: Deal of the Week — Voize, the AI tool transforming nursing-home documentation.

03:15 — Slush Deep Dive
Mads on Helsinki’s neon-lit founder festival, matchmaking tables, and why Slush still beats Web Summit.

07:45 — Germany’s €35B Space Strategy
Why Berlin is going big on space-as-defence — and whether Europe can ever compete at scale.

12:10 — Immigrant Founders Powerhouse
The surprising stats: 50–90% of US unicorn founders are immigrants; half of the UK’s fastest-growing companies too.

26:10 — Cookies Out, AI Regulation Rolled Back
The EU’s Digital Omnibus: fewer cookie banners, looser GDPR for AI training, and a major regulatory U-turn.

46:40 — AI Corner: TPUs vs GPUs & Open Source Wins
70% of startups using open-source LLMs; Google’s TPU-trained Gemini 3 beats benchmarks; Nvidia still sold out through 2026.

Tech Sovereignty And Becoming Full Stack Nations

Season 1 · Episode 66

samedi 15 novembre 2025Duration 53:10

Each week a small bunch of us try and makes sense of the latest news affecting European venture. 

Upside #66 - The theme this week is back to tech sovereignty, what that really means, what’s trade, what’s security - and ultimately will we all become full stack nations?

01:04 – UK exit tax: what it was and why it was dropped
The mooted UK “exit tax” (tax on unrealised gains when leaving the country), why it would be disastrous for founders, political “pitch-rolling” before budgets, and Tom Blomfield’s alternative idea of taxing gains accrued while in the UK.

08:17 – State of AI (McKinsey / QuantumBlack report)
Quick take on enterprise AI: almost every large org says it’s using AI, mostly for agentic/workflow use cases, but only ~1% report mature deployment or meaningful bottom-line impact, implying a long runway but slower-than-hyped progress.

09:54 – Nexperia & Europe’s chip vulnerability
Deep dive into Nexperia’s role in Europe’s mid-tech auto chips, EU–China tensions, how wafers are made in Europe but packaged in China, and what that reveals about the fragility of the European automotive supply chain.

13:15 – Ripping out Huawei/ZTE from 5G
Discussion of the EU’s move to give legal force to removing Chinese vendors from 5G infrastructure, the huge retrofit costs for telcos (esp. German operators), and whether this is driven by trade, security, or both.

16:18 – Einride SPAC & Palantir / Alex Karp
Einride’s US SPAC at a $1.8B valuation vs the Nikola fiasco; Palantir’s soaring stock, Alex Karp’s persona and “word salad” style, his emphasis on privacy-centric data architectures for governments, and the tension between admiration for serious infra and discomfort with founder-power.

23:06 – AI market wobble & Michael Burry’s bearish case
The recent pull-back in Mag7/AI names (esp. Nvidia), and whether it’s a blip or bubble-pop; Burry’s big short on hyperscalers and AI plays, and his history as an early Cassandra of the GFC.

23:52 – Chinese open-source models & hyperscaler accounting games
How Chinese open-source models (e.g. Kimi K2) are catching frontier labs and threatening closed-source economics, plus Burry’s argument that hyperscalers are overstating profits by stretching GPU lifetimes (4→6 years) and front-loading capex based on optimistic AI revenue expectations.

33:28 – Tech sovereignty, AI-powered cyber attacks & kill switches
Anthropic’s disclosure of LLM-assisted cyber attacks using Claude Code via social engineering; concerns over remote kill switches in Chinese-made buses in UK/Scandi fleets; broader questions about dependence on Chinese vendors and the push for “full-stack” sovereignty.

41:45 – De-globalisation & the cost of going ‘full stack’
Debate over whether every region trying to do everything domestically is sustainable; loss of cheap-labour-driven low inflation, need for critical minerals and energy at home, and how much poorer or safer societies might become under techno-sovereignty.

47:49 – Deals of the Week: BillionToOne and Gamma
BillionToOne’s ~$4.5–5B IPO (YC 2017; strong European VC participation); Pfizer’s $10B acquisition of GLP-1 player Metsera and what it signals for biotech; Gamma’s $68M Series B at a $2.1B valuation as a potential disruptor of the traditional Office/Slides stack.

A Baltic Boom, Matt Clifford Rouses, A Tale Of Two Quants

Season 1 · Episode 65

samedi 8 novembre 2025Duration 01:00:42

Upside Ep #65 - A Baltic Boom, Matt Clifford Rouses, A Tale Of Two Quants

A weekly show that unpacks the shenanigans affecting European venture.

Dan (host), Mads, Lomax, Special Guest: Jone (Yo neh) — Managing Partner, First Pick (Lithuania)

3:26 — Pre-seed vs Seed in the Baltics
•Why pre-seed fits: seed still feels early; when companies inflect, foreign funds out-gun local check sizes. Funds in region typically €10–€100M AUM, so Series A+ is handed off.

05:39 — Foreign funds’ interest & “guarding the land”
•Active sharing with bigger EU funds; Creandum dinner takeaway: Baltics are insanely good at distribution; product/elite-tech depth thinner than popular myth, but revenue ramps fast.

07:29 — Baltic bootstrapping culture
•Many regional champions are bootstrapped (e.g., Hostinger, Kilo Health, NordVPN/Tesonet group influence). Venture is used sparingly; winning a VC spot is hard as rounds are scarce/oversubscribed.

10:49 — Defence: Rheinmetall–Lithuania invests €300m
•Facts: €300M JV; Baisogala site; ~340 ha footprint; ~150 jobs; ground-breaking 4 Nov 2025; ops start 2026 with ramp in 2027.
•Why Lithuania? Panel view: incentives, speed, and financing (tax holidays, fast-track planning, heavy local co-funding) plus NATO signaling despite border-risk optics.

15:15 — Matt Clifford @ LFG: “Permissionlessness” & the stagnation decade
•Vibe check from the room: energising, pro-growth, anti-bureaucracy.
•Core claim discussed: ~17 years of UK productivity stagnation → lost income per head; call to cut red tape and celebrate building.
•Reflexive critique: does it resonate beyond London; EF’s Delaware flips vs UK nation-building narrative tension.

29:26 — Quantum UK - Can we?
•FT-sparked chat on UK/EU quantum software (e.g., Phasecraft, Riverlane) and hardware roots (PsiQuantum, Quantinuum) with UK lineage; big valuations, long road to revenue.

32:09 — Quants (trading): Yes we can!
•UK bright spot: quant trading still world-class; XTX building a ~25k-GPU cluster (context: new German “AI factory” cited at ~10k GPUs).
•Talent gravity: CS/math grads pulled into quant comp; debate on startup talent crowd-out vs recycling (e.g., XTX backing AI seeds).

39:57 — AI Corner
•Funding loops & hyperscaler deals: OpenAI multi-year cloud commits; when is it circular vs normal vendor financing? Panel splits hairs on cash vs credits and market discipline.
•CALM (China): continuous autoregressive idea = interesting/iterative step, not a “DeepSeek moment.”
•OpenAI & legal: limiting in-app legal advice framed as product direction/lead-gen potential for pros.
•Nvidia + Deutsche Telekom: ~€1.2B / ~10k GPUs in Germany—welcomed, but scale gap vs US mega-centres.
•Nebius “Token Factory”: EU-HQ’d “neo-cloud” (Yandex spin-out context) aggregating low-cost OS models; compelling for cost-sensitive workloads if 95–99% “good enough.” (Regional perception note: in Baltics it’s still seen as “Russian-adjacent”, brand kept intentionally low-key.)

53:53 — Deal(s) of the Week)
•Nexus AI (LT) — $8M on deck from Index, followed swiftly by Avantar/Creandum; Tesonet/NordVPN founders; routing/LLM infra for companies; signalling win for Vilnius scene. (Raised on deck, then followed up quickly.)
•Poolside (FR/US) — Rumoured $2B round; Nvidia up to $1B; valuation jump $3B → $12B; deeper code-gen/automation focus; meaningful transatlantic footprint.

Should You Raise Right Now? Should Govts Buy Stocks? Should NVIDIA Have Bought Nokia?

Season 1 · Episode 64

samedi 1 novembre 2025Duration 48:48

The pod that unpacks the real news behind the clickbait affecting European venture.

Hosts: Dan, Mads, Lomax, Andrew

02:41 — Bending Spoons deep dive
Debt-fuelled roll-up, “Berkshire of consumer apps” analogy; Ukrainian peer Gentek noted; why more post-COVID roll-ups didn’t materialise.

04:34 — US debt vs Europe risk
Market’s view on capital allocation/dynamism; Decacorns vs unicorns; power-law returns reinforce Botha’s point.

06:01 — “VC isn’t an asset class” debate
Power-law concentration, PR angle, and incentives; media takeaways.

07:31 — Euro VC vibes
Lakestar & optics; ecosystem still 5× over decade despite headlines.

08:30 — Feature: Should governments buy stocks?
Khosla’s 10% stake in all public companies to offset AI/AGI shocks:

  • Pros: Alignment with growth; potential UBI funding; sovereign-wealth-style upside.
  • Cons: Partial nationalisation optics, execution complexity, tying state finances tighter to market swings.
  • Middle paths: SWF/index recycling of taxes; robot/compute taxation; focus on efficient government vs expropriation.

17:45 — Back-of-envelope math
US equities ~$60T → 10% ≈ $6T; even 10% yield wouldn’t cover current US interest bill; cautions on bull-market assumptions.

19:03 — UK Budget preview (26 Nov)
Backdrop: softer productivity, fiscal squeeze.

  • Likely: CGT/inheritance tweaks, mansion tax; maybe EMI/startup relief refinements.
  • Founder advice: avoid doom loop—head down and build; some may move to US, less so Dubai.

22:25 — Should founders raise now (pre-correction)?

  • Consensus: If you can raise on decent terms, extend runway; always-be-raising (selectively).
  • Don’t panic or over-dilute; keep shipping.
  • If no PMF, fix product/positioning before chasing capital.

29:02 — AI Corner

  • NVIDIA at $5T: Hyperscalers’ capex still ramping; huge backlog; dominance but margins likely compress with competition/custom silicon.
  • Nokia stake: Smart edge/5G–6G positioning; GPUs closer to towers for network optimisation & edge AI.
  • OpenAI recap: For-profit structure finalised; Microsoft looks like the clearest public proxy (exclusivities, licenses).
  • Meta’s mixed moment & layoffs framed more as performance-management cycles than AI doom.

42:58 — Deals of the Week

  • Sales Patriot (Warsaw): €4.2m to modernise defence procurement; aim to be system of record.
  • Legora (legal AI, Stockholm): $150m at $1.8B, ~5 months after Series B.
  • Robin AI: Sale process after $70m raised—cautionary tale on GTM/scale.
  • Bending Spoons ↔ AOL/Vimeo: More roll-up momentum.
  • Synthesia: $200m at $4B; reportedly turned down a $3B Adobe offer—go-for-growth stance.

45:50 — UK quantum spotlight
QFX round (Paul Graham involved); UK’s deep quantum bench (PsiQuantum/Quantinuum roots; Oxford Ionics ~$1B sale to IonQ). Challenge: scaling while keeping firms in the UK.

The Robots Are Here Already?! - UK Govt Wasting Time In AI Sandboxes - 28th Update.

Season 1 · Episode 63

samedi 25 octobre 2025Duration 01:00:20

Upside - the weekly pod exploring the real news behind the clickrage affecting European venture, startups and investing.

Hosts: Dan, Mads, Lomax, Andrew

04:56 - Amazon, Robots & Europe’s Automation
• Amazon aims for 75% robotised operations by 2033 in the US.
• Automation = productivity growth, not mass layoffs.
• Europe: >80% of warehouses still manual; Germany highly automated.
• Debate: displacement vs. growth; Europe can't fall behind.

18:50 - AI & Europe’s Industrial Revolution
• Can Europe capture AI’s value?
• Most AI projects fail due to lack of readiness, not tech.
• The human in the loop - Underinvestment in training and integration.
• Discussion: China racing ahead; Europe needs tech-smart leadership.

39:04 - UK AI Sandbox - What a waste of sand?
• New UK initiative to test AI under relaxed rules.
• Unlike fintech, AI isn’t “gate-kept” - barriers are procurement and deployment.
• Use NHS as testbed for AI admin tools to cut waitlists.

50:13 - EU “28th Regime” - Directive or Law?
• Proposed single EU startup entity (like a Delaware C-Corp).
• Regulation = uniform law; Directive = messy national versions.
• Local tailoring inevitable - but harmonisation could save €2B/yr in admin costs.

59:54 Deal of the Week - Comind
• Comind raises $102M Series A (Plural) — non-invasive brain-computer interface.
• Mentions: Revolut ($75B raise rumour), Wayve ($2B fundraise).

VC's Fun'raising - Has China won AI already? & The WHY behind bubble-talk AI

samedi 18 octobre 2025Duration 46:05

Upside #62 w/ Dan and Mads from SuperSeed plus Ben from Bullhound Capital

Key Topics
• Fundraising climate in European for VC - friend or foe?
• Goldman Sachs’ Industry Ventures acquisition - getting into alternatives?!
• Nobel Prize in Economics: Why does this matter to VC and Europe?
• What's fuelling the AI bubble headlines? Hype vs fundamentals
• China’s physical AI advantage - have they won AI already?
• Europe does have a strategic path
• Deal of the Week: ecoRobotix

03:01 – VC Fundraising Outlook
• Post-2021 pullback continues.
• Flight to top brands: most LP capital going to top 30 funds.
• More government/EU money = policy strings.
• Low DPI but potential relief from Klarna IPO.
• Market consolidation = stronger survivors.

07:08 – LP Sentiment
• Big AI rounds crowding noise → more space for overlooked gems.
• Growing interest in early-stage, AI, defence, resilience.

09:23 – GS Buys Industry Ventures - Why?
• Traditional finance deeper in VC.
• Secondary liquidity engine + huge data moat (700 funds / 10k co’s).
• Smart strategic move for Goldman.

12:36 – Nobel Prize in Economics?
• Aghion & Howitt’s work proves innovation drives growth — VC validated.
• Missing pieces: state de-risking, catch-up growth, China’s dual strategy.

20:42 – AI “Bubble” or Just Massive Bets?
• OpenAI’s trillion-dollar compute plans (NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Oracle).
• OpenAI vs Google monetisation war.
• Circular financing risk with negative margins down the stack. Will retail be left holding the baby?
• Long-term value in vertical AI with data moats.

31:11 – China’s Physical AI Advantage
• Western Execs return “shaken” from dark factories.
• BYD rising fast.
• China deploying “good enough” open-source AI into everything.

39:24 – Europe’s Playbook
• JP Morgan’s $1.5T “security & resiliency” plan shows capital *can* be mobilised.
• Europe’s challenge: reallocate pension/government capital to productive tech.

45:43 – Deal of the Week: ecoRobotix
• Swiss physical AI agri-robotics.
• Precision spraying cuts pesticide use 95%.
• €90M Series D led by Highland Europe & McWin.


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