Toby Nangle is a regular contributor to the FT. Before he was a journalist, he was an asset manager for more than 25 years, and many of his clients were sovereign wealth funds. And some of the sovereigns of those wealth funds were doing things that made Nangle uncomfortable. So he quit. Today on the show, we discuss a massive problem faced by the investment industry: the ethical behaviour of its clients. 

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The price of gold reached a record high this week, passing $2,500 an ounce. Market watchers often ascribe a rise like this to inflation, fears about political instability or the endless insanity of the wild-eyed goldbug. But which is it? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong unpack gold’s rise. Also we go long and short Nvidia. 

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Presidential candidate Donald Trump has argued for a weaker dollar in recent interviews. That makes some sense. A weaker currency can increase exports and narrow a trade deficit. But how does one weaken a currency, and is it really a good idea? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and new Unhedged newsletter reporter Aiden Reiter discuss the options. Also, we go long tomatoes and short Lamb Weston, notable manufacturer of french fries. 

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As we recorded our show, Arm, the British chip designer, was finally going public in a much-watched IPO. Following in the next weeks are grocery picker Instacart and the strangely fashionable sandal maker Birkenstock. How they trade will tell us a lot about the markets. Also, we go short the euro and make a daring value play on the reputation of Elon Musk. 

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Inflation is hitting the US and the UK, but housing prices are going up in the US and down in the UK. Today on the show, we ask why, learn about two completely different ways of thinking about mortgages and try to figure out which one works better. Also we go long Turkey, finally, and short an FT reader who’s really annoyed by Canada’s economy. 

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Grayscale Investments manages funds of digital assets – cryptocurrency – for investors. They just won a case against the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which could eventually let it, or another manager, offer an ETF that holds bitcoin. US Financial Editor Brooke Masters and podcast regular Rob Armstrong talk with Ethan about what a world of crypto for regular investors might look like. Also we go long the US Treasury, and short the administrative state. 

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Summer’s nearly over, autumn is approaching, and the jobs numbers came in just right. So what are we worried about? Besides the slowdown in China, there are also concerns about the sagging bond market and a drought affecting the Panama Canal. Also, we go long the education and medical sectors and short … fried cheese.

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The central bankers of the world are just back from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where they gathered to discuss the global economy. Two new papers dropped at the event, and together they say a lot about what worries policymakers: public debt and the Treasury markets. Also, we go long the SEC’s private fund regulations and short the neutral interest rate. 

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The press has been savaging Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. And only the Unhedged Podcast is brave enough to defend him. A little bit. Well, we’re not saying he’s the greatest ever, but there are a lot of interesting reasons it is getting harder to be a secretive financial group and consistently make billions. Also, we go even longer on Japan and short our ability to make predictions about Nvidia. 

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Zero-day options are now almost 50 percent of the options market. But what are they? And why would anyone take these bets? Today on the show, host Ethan Wu and Alphaville’s Robin Wigglesworth discuss the latest way to gamble on the markets and address concerns that it all might blow up. Also we go short the Republican debate and long the Bloomberg terminal. 

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In an alternate corner of the multiverse, Disney is a family-friendly company that reliably puts out iconic films and turns them into billions of dollars through licensing and theme park visits. In our universe, they are fighting a tough battle for streaming viewers, reeling from a messy public CEO swap, struggling to find a hit and trying to make things better by starting a gambling operation. Today on the show, Ortenca Aliaj joins host Ethan Wu to watch the fireworks. Also we go long British football and short our own wit. 

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China’s economy has been growing faster than almost any other for a generation, so a slowdown is unfamiliar territory. Today on the show we look at three indicators — the CPI, exports and property sales — and try to understand why growth in China is finally slowing, and what it means for the rest of the world. Also, we go short cable news and long Argentina as a perpetual lesson in economics. 

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Carl Icahn is one of the most successful investors of all time, but his bet against the US economy has cost him billions of dollars. Now Hindenburg Research, the short seller, has come after Icahn and his publicly-traded fund, Icahn Enterprises. Hindenburg claims Icahn’s generous dividends are unsustainable. Today on the show, we ask: Can Icahn rally? Also, we go short investment bankers, and long stowaways. 

Links:

- Icahn Enterprises halves dividend after short seller attack

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As the election nears, Wall Street is starting to talk more about what a bet on a second Trump presidency might look like. Today on the show, we cover possible outcomes for inflation, long-term bond yields, currency manipulation, corporate taxes, protectionism, isolationism, threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve and even the rally in small-cap stocks. Also we go long sterling and short the Russell 2000. 

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Bonds started as a tool of the state, but quickly came to determine its fortunes. Today on the show, FT Alphaville editor Robin Wigglesworth joins us to talk about how bonds have overtaken banking as the engine of the economy, and why that might be good and why that might be dangerous. Also, we go short the soft landing and long Nintendo. 

Links:

How bonds ate the entire financial system

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After a decade, billions of dollars and almost five years on the public markets, Uber has at last turned a profit. In the previous quarter, it made $326 million dollars. Today on the show, we ask: What took it so long? And why is it so hard to make money matching riders with drivers? Also, we go long the 10-year US Treasury, and short cultural criticism. 

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Bringing down inflation can cause massive recessions. But three indicators suggest that this time it might be coming down without there being a crash. Today on the show, we look at how the latest CPI, real GDP, and consumer confidence numbers suggest the economy could be on the golden path to the mythical soft landing. Also, we go long robber barons and short broken glass. 

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Joe Lewis, 86, is a billionaire. He made his money trading currency, among other things. And he likes to keep a low profile. That could change with his appearance in court this week in New York, responding to insider trading charges. His bail is set at $300mn. Legal correspondent Joe Miller joins Ethan Wu to discuss how not to break the law. Also, we go long medical innovations and short the UK’s most respectable bank. 

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Interest rates have driven the conversation about markets over the past year. And this week, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will all be making announcements. Katie Martin and Ethan Wu discuss how potential rate changes will drive the market news. Also Katie is long UK stocks — finally! — and Ethan goes short . . . civilisation.  

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As regulators continue to worry about big and small banks, a lot of midsized companies are turning to private credit for loans. These loans are issued at floating interest rates, can be hard to value, and are one of the fastest growing asset classes. Today on the show, we ask: What could go wrong? We also go long the soldier who crossed into North Korea, and short the Economics Job Market Rumors forum. 

Links:

No, private credit markets aren’t really that big

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Last week’s US inflation numbers were surprisingly low, a very moderate 3 per cent. That could be due to an increasing supply of workers and goods. And it might *not* be due to the Federal Reserve’s tough talk over the past year. Today on the show, we reconsider everything we thought we knew about the past 18 months of inflation. Also, we go long corporate bond exchanges, and short… the dry martini. 

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Seven stocks are powering the market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. How will they do in the second half of this year? Ethan Wu hosts as Rob ‘Value This’ Armstrong takes on Elaine ‘The Lex Flex’ Moore. In three rounds they pick their winners for the second half of 2023, and tell us why they chose them. 

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The bond market dwarfs the stock market. But for more than a decade, equities have been the subject of conversation, and returns. Now that has flipped. Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu and Katie Martin take apart the bond market, and explain why it matters more than ever. Also, we go long Mark Zuckerberg and short … FinTwit. 

Links:

- Taxi test for bonds signals end of the ‘Tina’ era

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Markowitz, a titan of finance who won the 1990 Nobel prize in economics, died last month. He showed, in a mathematically rigorous way, that diversification could bring higher returns without higher risk. 

Alex Scaggs joins Ethan to explain how Markowitz’s work led to a way of thinking that has become ubiquitous in modern finance (and that has spawned legions of haters).

Also, we go short economic forecasting and long Beyonce.

Links:

- Read Alex Scaggs’s Markowitz obit in the FT.

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The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority just released rule revisions that are meant to attract new listings on the country’s exchanges. These include legalising shares that move a lot of the power from investors to founders. Will this be enough to restart London as a hub for innovation? Today on the show Katie Martin and UK business correspondent Michael O’Dwyer talk about the new rules and whether they will help dynamic companies list in the UK. Also we go long professional services and shorts in the office. 

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The persistence of working from home, the rise in interest rates, and job cuts in finance and tech all spell trouble for the owners of office buildings. How bad will it get? And will the troubles in commercial real estate spill over to the broader economy?

Links:

- Read the Unhedged newsletter on commercial real estate and office REITs.

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Japanese stocks have been on a tear this year. There are a few reasons for this: Japan looks better than lots of other places, Japanese monetary policy is giving stocks a boost, and its corporate governance is becoming more friendly to shareholders. But is the rally overextended? Also, we go long Greek bonds and short the liquidators trying to get $1.3bn from the founders of Three Arrows Capital.

Links:

Read the Unhedged newsletter on Japan

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Car insurance costs in the US have shot up by 23% in the past 18 months, dwarfing the overall rise in inflation. What exactly is happening? And what lessons can be learnt? We discuss how idiosyncratic factors like a new law in Florida and even Taylor Swift’s latest tour are showing up in US prices. Also, we go short US housing and long SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son and his quirky presentations.

Links:

What’s going on with US car insurance?

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On paper, it’s a strong market. The S&P 500 is up more than 14 per cent this year. But for professional investors, it’s confusing. Most of the gains are driven by just seven stocks, all big tech names such as Apple and Nvidia. Take those seven out and the market is essentially flat, leaving traders wondering if they’re sitting out an AI bubble, or missing a real rally. Also, we go long gilts, which are yielding 5 per cent, and long …lettuce. 

Links:

Stock market scramble has left investors skittish despite rally

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Crypto is at a crossroads. As exchanges and currencies blow up, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is ready to step in. But is crypto a security, like a stock? Or a tradable item of speculation, like a Beanie Baby? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and Ethan Wu argue about the benefits and risks of regulating crypto. Also, we go short home prices, and long … the bone trade.

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The US economy remains confusing. Markets continue to predict a slowdown but unemployment remains low. Today on the show, we try to figure out what job numbers, manufacturing and credit can tell us about a possible recession and an end to rate rises. Also, we are long the bros at Three Arrows Capital (sort of), and the US stock market. 

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Last week the FT’s Moral Money writer Simon Mundy spoke with venture capitalist Vinod Khosla about 20 years of making big, long bets on renewable energy. Some have paid off, but most haven’t. Khosla is fine with that, and continues to look for big wins in the very long run on solutions such as fusion. Today on the show, Simon and Katie Martin discuss the future of green tech. Also, we short cars and electric bicycles. 

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Paramount and Skydance are merging. That’s a win for David Ellison, whose small studio will join a legendary one with a huge back catalogue and a nascent streaming platform. But is this merger of the old and new enough to compete in the new Hollywood? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and deals reporter James Fontanella-Khan talk about the Paramount deal and the future of entertainment. Also, we take sides in the Euro soccer/football final this weekend.

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Recent elections have changed politics in Europe, delivering a centre-left Labour government in the UK and shifting seats to a left alliance in the French parliament. Today on the show, Katie Martin discusses this new landscape, and what it means for global markets and finance, with the FT’s economics commentator Chris Giles. Also, we short political journalists and opinion polls. 

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Ted Pick became chief executive of Morgan Stanley earlier this year. In a recent letter to shareholders, he touted “the integrated firm” as a model for the bank's future. But it’s not a new idea, and it’s one that has proven very hard for banks to actually do. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong asks the FT’s US banking editor, Josh Franklin, if it’s even a good idea. Also we short the US housing market and summer in New York City. 

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On Thursday, two candidates for US president will debate each other. They are both protectionists. This is a huge change in US economic policy, and one that may have massive consequences in the decades to come. Today on the show, Robert Armstrong talks with the FT’s chief economics commentator, Martin Wolf, about the past and future of industrial policy. Also we go long ageing and long babies.

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Golden Goose had a simple plan. Mass produce worn out sneakers, get stars to wear them, and sell them to the public. It was going great until the owner announced an IPO, and then pulled it. Today on the show, Katie Martin and James Fontenella-Khan discuss. Also, we go long German football and long sterling. 

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On Thursday, shareholders of Tesla voted to re-approve a deal to reward Elon Musk with more than $50 billion worth of shares in Tesla, thus making one of the world’s richest men even richer. Also we go long teams without stars and short climate change. 

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Why do central bankers gather in the middle of nowhere every summer? And what will this week's meeting in the middle of nowhere mean for markets? Katie Martin and FT economics commentator Chris Giles explain everything you need to know about Jackson Hole. Also, we go long exclusive conferences and short exams.

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The Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, and markets went whooshing upwards, as if they thought no-move was a clear signal about the next move. For a bit anyway. Today on the show, Katie Martin is joined by Chris Giles, the FT’s economics commentator, to talk about the Fed and the crucial next few months before the US election in November. Also we short transatlantic rate arbitrage, exams and Nigel Farage.

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Researchers at the University of Chicago took a fairly standard large language model of AI and fed it a bunch of balance sheets and income statements and asked it to make predictions about earnings. In backtests, AI beat human calls by a small margin, and outperformed the market generally. Have fund managers been dealt yet another kill shot? Katie Martin and Robert Armstrong discuss, and go long shareholder commitments, and the musical genius of Yuja Wang.

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Nvidia continues its rocket-like rise: Investors have piled in, as have day traders who play the stock with options. This is causing banks and market makers to load up on shares in order to cover trades. It's a feedback loop traders call the gamma squeeze, and some are concerned it’s distorting markets. Today on the show, Katie Martin talks about Nvidia and the gamma squeeze with correspondent George Steer. Also we go long the ECB and short proposals for a Texas stock exchange. 

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It’s a big year for democracy. Voters in Mexico and India just went to the polls. Elections in the UK and US are still to come. On today’s show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin talk through how markets are responding to the elections in Mexico and India. And they analyse how markets might react to the UK and US elections. Also, we go short slugs and stock-based compensation.

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You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. 

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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At a recent meeting of the G20, Brazil invited economist Gabriel Zucman to address the most powerful nations in the world, and argue for a global tax on the super-rich. Today on the show, European economics commentator Martin Sandbu joins Robert Armstrong to discuss whether a worldwide tax on the very richest could even happen, and how it might work. Also, we short the commercial real estate crisis and go long liberal democracy. 

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. 

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Red Lobster used to be a respectable place to eat too much seafood. Now it’s bankrupt. Today on the show, host Rob Armstrong and the FT's Wall Street editor Sujeet Indap put on their bibs and pick apart the exoskeleton of a fast-casual icon. They talk about pasta water, real estate, and whether the real killer was the all-you-can-eat shrimp promotion. Also we go long Chili’s, and deliver the results of an informal art poll. 

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Rob Armstrong at rob.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. 

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Commercial property values in the UK and the US have been slow to adjust to the sharp increase in interest rates. Are sellers refusing to accept reality? Or has the property economy simply put itself on hold? Joshua Oliver covers real estate (and crypto) for the FT, and he walks us through it all. And talks about crypto. 

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The price of cocoa has exploded. Over the past year, it’s up about 300 percent. Today on the show, Katie Martin and commodities reporter Susannah Savage try to figure out what’s behind the run-up in cocoa, olive oil and other staples. Also we go long gardening and short AI copying our voices. 

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. 

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Bridgewater Associates is one of the largest hedge funds in the world, and one of the most unusual. Its founder, Ray Dalio, has retired and moved on to other things, such as deep sea submarines. Can the new chief executive keep the group’s legendary returns going? Today on the show, reporter Ortenca Aliaj joins Rob Armstrong to discuss. Also we go long Walmart and short the troubled merger of Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck. 

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. 

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

‘Roaring Kitty’, aka Keith Gill, aka the GameStop memelord, leaned in again this week, sparking a massive rally in the retailer and its sidekick, AMC. FT correspondents Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong take stock of the mayhem and ask if it's a sign that the animal spirits are back. Also we short gruelling exams and go long utilities.  

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. 

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.