You can watch the entire episode for free on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.

This week Ed Feng of the The Power Rank joins me to talk about the process of ranking teams and what it means for Week 16. We also talk a little soccer in the wake of the World Cup.

You can find Ed on twitter, or his great site for betting info and predictions.

If watching on YouTube is your thing.

Subscribe to my substack for daily written content and twice a week podcasts.

For this week’s solo wrap-up pod, I discuss the significance of Mike Leach, and how his thoughtful and intentional way of understanding the game was analytics without numbers.

Plus, I introduce the first selection in what will hopefully be an ongoing thing: The Unexpected Points Book Club. We’re going to start with The Perfect Pass by S.C. Gwynne. It’s a fantastic story of the Air Raid’s founding and ascendance, with Hal Mumme and Mike Leach prominently featured. Lots of lessons from this book to apply to any endeavor, especially when looking to challenge the establishment order.

I lastly have some Q&A from the livestream and detail this weeks research on Joe Burrow’s declining sack rate and Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE).

Leave comments about “The Perfect Pass” here if you’ve already read the book, or are now motivated to start, and I’ll discuss them in the next episode. I’m planning on reviewing the first half of the book (Chapters 1-10) in next Friday’s pod.

Take care.

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Chase Stuart wrote a daily blog at Football Perspective for a decade, and before that helped craft early analytical measures like ANY/A at Pro Football Reference. Chase brings a longer-term perspective to the NFL and how the league has changed over the past couple decades.

Chase joins Kevin to discuss his history, what the current discourse is missing, and which teams he believes are better or worse than their records. Plus, talk on his beloved Jets.

Follow Chase on twitter.

I’m back on the podcasting streets. You can watch this replay on YouTube to see the video clips of the Mahomes interview, or perhaps my animated talking.

I discuss my takes and research (research in links):

* The injury of Jimmy Garoppolo and what it means for the 49ers.

* Baker’s magical evening, McDaniels blowing it and if McVay can turn him around.

* Jon Robinson’s firing and how billion-dollar NFL franchises aren’t run like stable businesses.

* YouTube Live Watchers Q&A: Patriots playoff chances? Is Justin Field legit? What should the Jets do at QB?

You support the pod and my research by subscribing to the Unexpected Points Substack.

As many of you may know, I've been laid off by PFF as part of a restructure. The pod will continue, and make sure to find all of my written work at: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/

The Week 13 review article is now available with all the adjusted scores and analysis you're looking for: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/week-13-nfl-review.

Thanks so much and I'll be back later this week (hopefully).

For this week's special guest on the Unexpected Points podcast, Kevin is joined by sports analytics writer, ESPN's Specialist Seth Walder, as the duo discusses and ranks the league's (analytically) best teams of the 2022 regular season thus far.

Kevin reviews all the numbers, adjusted scores and analytical decisions for the Sunday slate of Week 12.

Kevin reviews the three NFL games from Thanksgiving, plus a few model-based best bets.

Kevin goes through the MNF matchup with Jimmy shinning, points out the problems with being obsessed with upgrading a "limited" quarterback like Jimmy G or Tua, and all the Zach Wilson drama.

Kevin goes through all the numbers and takeaways from Week 11.

See the Week 1 NFL quarterback rankings based on Bayesian updating and adjusted EPA efficiency.

Kevin goes through the TNF matchup, a ESPN segment of the return of the run and best bet for Week 11.

Kevin is re-joined by The Ringer's Steve Ruiz to evaluate some of the NFL's younger QB talent. 

Kevin reviews all the numbers, adjusted scores and grades from Week 10's Sunday slate.

Kevin goes through the numbers and implications of the Panthers-Falcons game, plus why Jeff Saturday is skeptical of analytics and the best bets for the weekend by the numbers.

Kevin reviews the MNF matchup and goes in-depth on the decision to fire Frank Reich and replace him with Jeff Saturday.

Kevin goes through all Sunday's action with the advanced stats and grades.

Kevin goes over a surprisingly close TNF contest and his favorite recreational bets for Sunday.

Former PFFer Eric Eager of Sumer Sports joins Kevin to talk about the marco lesson of the deadline and the specific deals that went down this week.

Kevin reviews and the numbers and grades for Sunday Week 8.

Kevin talks through the Ravens TNF victory and analyzes the Toney, Quinn and Robinson trades.

Watch the whole podcast on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.

Today, Kevin is re-joined by Prime Video TNF analytics guru, former NFL offensive lineman Sam Schwartzstein to discuss solutions for fixing some NFL offenses, and Prime Video analytics.

Kevin reviews all the relevant numbers and adjusted scores for Sunday's action

Kevin recaps Thursday Night Football between the Cardinals & Saints, and breaks down the CMC trade. 

Kevin talks through the key numbers, grades and takeaways from MNF, plus a look at how to discuss analytics in a better way that we saw in the pre-game show.

Kevin review all the number from Week 6.

Kevin discusses the slog that was TNF, plus the stories of the week and some bets he likes for the rest of Week 6.

00:00 Intro

01:00 Analytics discourse taking over

04:37 Bears-Commanders review

05:47 Lack of scoring this season

11:48 4th down decisions

13:48 Justin Fields talk

22:12 Dan Synder article

25:50 Carson Wentz catching strays

32:00 Week 6 Best Bets

Kevin reviews a wild Chiefs-Raiders matchup and previews TNF.

Kevin reviews the Sunday slate and previews Chiefs-Raiders MNF matchup.

Kevin reviews an awful TNF game and looks forward to this weekend's action.

Kevin reviews MNF and previews TNF between the Broncos and Colts.

The latest Deshaun Watson restructure gives us an opportunity to talk about the emerging financial alchemy teams are employing, especially with quarterback contracts.

I talk through how the Watson deal and general restructures allow teams to roster slightly better teams overall, due to the compounding rise of cap cost and shifting burdens into the future.

Kevin goes through the Sunday slate of games giving all the adjusted scores and important details on what drove the outcomes.

Kevin reviews this week's TNF matchup and the weekend best bets.

Kevin reviews the MNF matchup with all the advanced stats and adjusted scores, plus a preview of a highly anticipated Bengals-Dolphins game on TNF.

Kevin goes through the Week 3 Sunday slate of games with all the advanced stats, adjusted scores and big-picture takeaways.

Kevin goes through all the advanced stats and grades for Browns-Steelers, plus a few bets he likes for this Sunday's action.

Kevin goes through all the grading and advanced stats for the two MNF games and what it means for the teams going forward.

Kevin goes through every Sunday game, gives his predictive adjusted scores and points out the most important stats and data to forecast what will happen the rest of the season.

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(00:00) Intro

(01:01) Adjusted scores controversy

(03:12) Are comebacks happening more often?

(05:34) Saints-Bucs

(13:56) Jaguars-Colts

(19:30) Lions-Commanders

(23:47) Why you go for 2 down 8

(28:02) Ravens-Dolphins

(35:40) Browns-Jets

(41:22) Giants-Panthers

(47:38) Patriots-Steelers

(53:36) Rams-Falcons

(58:04) 49ers-Seahawks

(1:04:28) Cowboys-Bengals

(1:10:25) Raiders-Cardinals

(1:12:30) Broncos-Texans

(1:16:30) Packers-Bears

Kevin goes over all the relevant numbers and grades from the matchup of the Chiefs and Chargers.

Kevin breaks down MNF and why Mahomes' grading is relatively low.

Kevin goes through the Week 1 slate with all the advanced stats and proprietary numbers you need to know.

Find the full pod for free on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.

Read Mike’s QB Tiers article and follow him on twitter.

Kevin goes through all the relevant numbers for the first game of the season, why to love the Bills start, but also not go overboard with enthusiasm.

Kevin talks through his Bayesian QB rankings, who is undervalued and how it differs from other rankings out there. Plus, his numbers-based best bets for Week 1 and a breakdown of the Russell Wilson extension

Kevin breaks down some of the more notable roster cuts, trades among all 32 teams, and Jimmy Garoppolo staying in San Francisco for atleast another season as the 9ers' backup.