Explore every episode of the podcast Unexpected Points

Follow Cody Alexander on Twitter.

Subscribe to Cody’s substack: MatchQuarters

Find all of Josh’s work and Buy Low Model at Air Yards

Find Josh’s Buy Low model on his substack

You can watch the entire episode for free on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.

See the Week 1 NFL quarterback rankings based on Bayesian updating and adjusted EPA efficiency.

Watch the whole podcast on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.

The latest Deshaun Watson restructure gives us an opportunity to talk about the emerging financial alchemy teams are employing, especially with quarterback contracts.

I talk through how the Watson deal and general restructures allow teams to roster slightly better teams overall, due to the compounding rise of cap cost and shifting burdens into the future.

Find the full pod for free on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.

Read Mike’s QB Tiers article and follow him on twitter.

Josh Hermsmeyer joins the pod for the weekly livestream to talk:

* If Drake Maye should start, and generally what we learn from the preseason

* How the Cowboys played the last few drafts so poorly at WR and lost all leverage with CeeDee Lamb

* A bet on the kick-return rate for the 2024: Herms takes under 40%, Kevin takes the over

* Strong analysis from the NFL’s Michael Lopez and Tom Bliss on the minimal benefit of bye weeks during the regular season

Kevin digs into the advanced stats, worries and hopes for

* The Steelers QB “battle” between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields

* All the top QB picks in 2024

* Is Caleb Williams playing as well as his social media highlights?

* Jayden Daniels adjusted to a very different Kliff Kingsbury scheme

* Drake Maye showing a lot of promise with big throws

* Bo Nix continuing to lead the most efficiency offense of the preseason

Projections guru Mike Leone of Establish the Run joins the pod to talk through

* The JJ McCarthy injury, what it means for his future and the more immediate implications for his teammates

* We also discuss Mike's process forming seasonal and weekly projections

* What are the most common mistakes making mental projections

* How often he uses intuition or his gut to …

Kevin discusses the (little) meaningful information from Week 1 of the NFL preseason Plus, he explain how to best decide on Week 1 starters with competing veterans of less caliber, or when a top-12 rookie is in the mix.

Kevin and Josh talk the potential trade of Brandon Aiyuk:

* Should the 49ers deal him?

* Which team is in best position to get him?

* Quantifying his value for contending and rebuilding teams?

Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) of Stealing Signals joins me to talk:

* How the tried-and-true strategies of yesteryear are working out in fantasy football now.

* Whether we’ve become too fixated on the aggregate, stats-based analysis versus looking at talent

* A bunch of ADPs for players that don’t make sense

* Take questions on the YouTube LiveStream

What should we be thinking about the Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love deals? We discuss those contracts, plus the larger QB market and NFL team-building.

Find more research from Josh on his substack, including the DFS player’s favorite “Buy Low” Model.

You can watch the pod taping live and ask questions in the comments on YouTube every Tuesday at 1pm ET.

Gambler and all-around insightful commentator ClevTA (@ClevTA) joins the pod to talk:

* Process of building out offseason predictions

* Which teams we like more/less than the market

* Which teams project better/worse by our models than even we believe

* Player futures: MVP, etc

Check out ClevTA's website and FREE 2024 Preview

The first of (hopefully) many weekly livestreams with Josh Hermsmeyer joining Kevin to discuss the latest analytical topics affecting the NFL, plus all the usual football talk from a smarter perspective.

Find more research from Josh on his substack, including the DFS player’s favorite “Buy Low” Model.

You can watch the pod taping live and ask questions in the comments on YouTube every Tuesday at 1pm ET.

* Why is scoring down so much in recent seasons?

* What are we hearing that has actual signal

* The history of success for quarterbacks by draft position, and what it means for the 2023 and 2024 classes.

You can watch along here:

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Find more research by subscribing to https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/

Sorry for a little delay getting this out on the pod. The recording didn’t go through the first time. Make sure to subscribe to the YouTube channel to watch the streams live and not miss anything.

Benjamin Robinson of Grinding the mocks joins me to talk all the numbers and strategies behind a wild round one of the draft

Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Watch on YouTube:

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