Explore every episode of the podcast UBS On-Air: Market Moves

There is a quiet data calendar. Eurozone final consumer price inflation data for October is the textbook definition of an economic non-event. The regional numbers are all out, and final consumer price data almost never changes from the initial release. Markets are also comfortable in their expectations for ECB rate cuts in the coming months.

As we await President-elect Trump’s personnel selections to carry out US economic policy, Jason examines the mix of known intended supply-side fiscal policies of the incoming administration. We also touch on the implications of potential fiscal policy to the course of monetary policy, along with assess the integrity of the “Trump trade” following recent indications of cracks. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors in the wake of the US election outcome, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Scott DiMaggio, Head of Fixed Income with AllianceBernstein, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Financial markets had, perhaps, hoped that the next US treasury secretary would serve as a defender of free trade in the administration, and at least seek to minimize the severity of US consumer tax hikes. Media reports suggest that the search is being broadened, and commitment to the tax increases is being sought. The challenge of the proposed tariffs is not just the rate, but also the breadth (and the possibility of universal blanket tariffs).

China’s singles’ consumer spending festival may have helped support October retail sales data. Industrial production data was less surprising, although the detail hinted at some export strength. It seems rather early for the story of foreigners buying goods in anticipation of tariffs—buy now to avoid taxes later—to apply.

We recap President-elect Trump’s visit to Washington DC (including his White House meeting with President Biden), along with review the known staff picks and cabinet nominations of the incoming Trump administration. Plus, a look at incoming Congressional leadership, and a review of the Congressional agenda priorities between now and year end. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs the latest US inflation data, along with considers the potential impact of US-imposed tariffs (to nations such as China) to the US inflationary environment. We also calculate whether tariffs will ultimately pay for lower taxes in the US.

US October producer price inflation is due. These numbers better reflect corporate pricing power than does the consumer price data. The tone should be consistent with a December rate cut—in this situation, the Federal Reserve does not want rising real rates, and inaction would raise real rates over the course of this year.

We get US consumer price inflation data today. In one sense, the numbers are curiously unimportant. There are potentially competing forces at work on future US inflation. The fantasy owners’ equivalent rent measure should slow, but does not change anyone’s inflation reality. Oil prices may be lower, depending on US supply and Middle Eastern policies. Larger fiscal deficits, labor deportations, and consumer taxes via tariffs would all add to inflation pressures.

We spotlight the latest Modern Retirement Monthly publication which breaks down the associated costs of long-term care, along with solutions to consider. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, and Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The New York Federal Reserve survey of inflation expectations is of little economic relevance, but may be of future political interest. Inflation expectations are skewed towards prices of high frequency purchases (food and fuel). Trade tariffs, as a sales tax, increase prices paid by US consumers—but generally for lower frequency purchases. As such, the impact on living standards may be greater than the impact on perceived inflation.

In the wake of the US election outcome, Jason breaks down what a second Trump term means for the markets, the US economy, and monetary policy. Plus, thoughts on the recent market momentum, and whether it can last, along with a look at CIO’s investment outlook and positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income and ElectionWatch Co-lead, provides an update on the vote count and outcome, while Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Strategist, Kevin Dennean, Technology and Telecom Strategist, and Brad Ball, Financials Strategist, dive into three of the most election-sensitive sectors.

China’s fiscal stimulus plans underwhelmed financial markets. There is a sense that consumer weakness has not been addressed directly (the weekend’s consumer price inflation data suggested consumer weakness). There might be a reluctance to admit that current policies are not working, or a desire to keep some fiscal firepower in reserve to deal with the risk of trade taxes in 2025.

As we close out another trading week, Brian recaps the FOMC policy meeting, along with notable economic data releases from over the past few days. We also spend time examining some economic implications of this week’s US election outcome. Plus, a look at the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

John Savercool, Head of Governmental Affairs US, David Lefkowitz, Head of US Equities, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income provide our initial reaction to the current vote count, equity and fixed income markets moves, and more.

On this episode of Viewpoints, and in the wake of the US election, Burkhard weighs what a second Trump term means for the markets, and how investors are balancing the prospects of lower corporate tax rates and less business regulations, with higher tariffs and wider budget deficits. Burkhard also discusses the concerns of the ‘bond vigilantes’ and what those concerns might mean for treasuries.

Every pundit claims they know the reason for the US election outcome. This pundit is no different. In exit polls, Republican voters’ biggest concern was the economy and 75% of US voters said inflation was a hardship this year. Three years of durable goods price deflation are not noticed by voters, who focus on price levels of high-frequency purchases (like food). The election may have been won and lost in the aisles of Walmart, over the price of a Snickers bar.

On this post-Election Day episode, Shane breaks down the known results (including for the race for the White House, along with the many Congressional races). Plus, reflects on Decision 2024 voting trends and turnout. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

At the time of recording, the US Senate has been called for the Republican party, and the House and presidency remain open. Financial markets have moved to price a victory by former US President Trump. However, markets appear to assume that the campaign rhetoric (specifically around deportations and tariffs) will not fully translate into policy.

There is another wave of noise from sentiment polls (today it is the turn of service sector sentiment). French September manufacturing and industrial production data are due (manufacturing sentiment has pointed to a dramatic collapse in production since January 2023. French manufacturing output has risen over the same period).

With Election Day just hours away, and a Fed policy meeting slated for later this week, Jason drops by to share CIO’s assessment heading into the election, along with what recent jobs and GDP data could mean for the course for monetary policy. We also check in on Q3 corporate earnings results, share CIO’s current market outlook, along with guidance when it comes to asset allocation. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US employment report last Friday was weak, but distorted. It does not add much useful information on the US economy, although it serves as a reminder that real time economic data is not reliable and is frequently revised. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s strategy of data dependency depends on undependable data.

Mike Contopoulos rejoins Leslie Falconio for a discussion around year-end asset class performance expectations, potential outcome implications of the US election for fixed income investors, positioning, and more. Featuring Mike Contopoulos, Director of Fixed Income for Richard Bernstein Advisors, as well as Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this episode, Andrew Lee and Lucy Thomas preview the upcoming COP29 (2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference) in Baku, Azerbaijan, including a look at the top agenda items that will be covered at this year’s conference, namely Climate Finance. Featured are Andrew Lee, Head of Sustainable and Impact Investing for the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Lucy Thomas, Head of Sustainable Investing for UBS Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard acknowledges how the US equity market rally has stalled, this against a backdrop of mostly upbeat Q3 corporate earnings reporting, and with Election Day next Tuesday. We discuss how investors should consider responding to these recent markets moves, and prepare for the post-election market environment. Plus, thoughts on gold heading into 2025.

As we close out the trading week, Brian and Paul weigh in on the latest jobs data, and what it means for the health of the US economy, along with the course ahead for monetary policy. Plus, we review CIO’s current allocation recommendations, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

It is US employment report Friday. This report is distorted by hurricanes, strike action, and the fact that the data is always wrong. Taking a broad sweep of economic data, the signs are that the labor market is doing fine. The ongoing strength of US consumer spending suggests little fear of unemployment, for instance.

Anwiti Bahuguna serves as Chief Investment Officer of global asset allocation, and portfolio manager for Northern Trust Asset Management. Anwiti shares her views on the US economy, real estate, along with outcome implications of the US election to markets. Plus, we spend time highlighting where opportunities can be located. Host: Daniel Cassidy

After the excitement of yesterday’s GDP data, today investors are granted another peek into the hedonistic lifestyle of the US consumer. Personal income and consumption data are due, and both should be relatively buoyant. Job security and rising real incomes are powerful forces for supporting economic activity through consumer spending.

With Election Day just days away, Shane drops by to update on what swing state polling is pointing to, and how the Presidential candidates are spending their final days on the campaign trail. Plus, an update on developments as it relates to Israel and Iran. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Dan Suzuki serves as the Deputy Chief Investment Officer for Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA). Dan drops by the 1285 podcast studio in New York to share his US economic outlook, thoughts on Q3 corporate earnings, equity valuations, monetary policy, and more. Plus, we spend time highlighting where opportunities can be located. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Third quarter GDP data comes out of some European economies, and the US. The data will be wrong because (as recent US revisions so clearly demonstrated) economic statistics fail to capture the rapid pace of structural economic change. Comparing headline GDP in countries like Italy and Germany (declining populations) with countries like the US (rising population) is unfair.

Leslie stops by to explain the factors that are driving rate volatility, along with potential US election outcome implications for fixed income investors. We also cover a near-term outlook for fixed income markets, along with review positioning considerations within the asset class. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US job vacancy data is due. The survey response rate for this data is so low as to class those who do bother to respond as peculiar. Moreover, the data measures externally advertised vacancies only, and the surge and retreat in job vacancy numbers probably owe more to the changing ratio of internal to external job vacancies within companies.

With Election Day roughly a week away, combined with the upcoming October employment report, November FOMC meeting, and an abundance of Q3 corporate earnings ahead, investors will have a lot to digest over the next two weeks. Jason provides some thoughts on these factors, along with outlines CIO’s medium-term market outlook, and latest positioning guidance. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japan’s governing coalition lost its majority in the Diet lower house. Prime Minister Ishida signaled that he does not intend to resign, but a third coalition partner must now be sought. This creates market uncertainty. If political bargaining drags on, the Bank of Japan might delay raising rates. Opinion polls underestimated support for the opposition—a reminder that investment decisions should not be based on opinion poll evidence, anywhere.

In this livestream, Global Head of Investment Communications Kiran Ganesh and colleagues discussed the implications for Fed easing and US equities, while evaluating risks from the upcoming US election, and looked at the scenarios for the months ahead.

US Michigan consumer sentiment is due, including the inflation expectations reading. Is this useful information? It is not. The data will be distorted by frequency bias (there is more to life than food and fuel for the family fleet of SUVs, but that is pretty much all US households focus on for inflation). Political bias will also distort the data—Republicans think they are living in Weimar Germany, Democrats think inflation is under control.

Patricia Zobel serves as Head of Macroeconomic Research and Market Strategy for Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, and previously served as an executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed). Patricia shares perspective on a range of topics, spanning an outlook for the US economy, to the direction of monetary policy. We also spend time on allocation preferences across fixed income, real estate, and ex-US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation revisits the emerging markets as we explore opportunities across equities and bonds, along with touch on what investors should keep in mind as it relates to the upcoming US election. Plus, we take inventory of what was a busy month of September spanning monetary and fiscal policy developments out of the US and China. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The authors of the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book are clearly followers of TikTok memes. The economy was described as being modest and demure (actually as growing at a “slight or modest pace” but it amounts to the same thing). The benign growth story fits with most economists’ central projections. On inflation, anecdotes suggested a more concerted resistance to profit-led inflation from consumers.

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs diverging viewpoints when it comes to the condition and health of the US economy, along with whether there is further room to run in equity markets in consideration of realized returns over the past couple of years. In doing so, Burkhard breaks down the anatomy of bull-and-bear markets.

ECB President Lagarde is set to speak again. It is very unlikely that the last 24 hours have changed the world view of the ECB president. The tone of yesterday’s remarks signaled the direction of travel for Euro area rates was clear, though there was an attempt to insert some ambiguity about the pace of easing.

We spotlight the latest edition of the quarterly UBS CEO Macro Briefing book as we explore how business owners and investors feel about the upcoming US election, the state of the US economy, the course ahead for Fed monetary policy, and more. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s pontification of Federal Reserve speakers created a stir in bond markets. There were a range of views expressed, from “keep on cutting” to “more gradual cuts”. Markets, rendered skittish by Fed’s “data dependency” on undependable data, have raised yields. US inflation is down one percentage point since last December, which would justify a similar reduction in rates over the course of this year.

On this episode, Jason and Ron meet in-studio to discuss investment considerations and opportunities as it relates to potential outcome scenarios of the upcoming US election. They also spend time exchanging thoughts on the health of the US economy, the road ahead or monetary policy, and more. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Ron Temple, Chief Market Strategist with Lazard Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on Oct 17.

As talk of a “no landing” scenario for the US economy has reemerged, Jason weighs whether the US economy has already landed, though with a 5% nominal growth rate. We also discuss CIO’s recent upgrade of equities to “attractive” and outline additional asset class views per the latest UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

German September producer prices are expected to stay in deflation (this is not a surprise, they have been in deflation for over a year). While other factors will add noise to consumer price data, producer prices are a better reflection of corporate pricing power. The deflation signals should secure expectations for further rate cuts from the ECB.

US data once again reminded investors of the wisdom of never underestimating the hedonism of the US consumer. September retail sales were strong (the data do include the effect of inflation). Consumers are often disbelieving of the data, but the value of US retail sales are up over 25% from the start of 2021 while goods inflation is up a little more than 17% over the same period. That suggests a rising living standard, at least when measured by material possessions.