Explore every episode of the podcast Turtle Talk
| Title | Pub. Date | Duration | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turtle Talk Podcast Episode 15: Inside the Loop — Uncertainty in War and the Markets (Part Two) | 08 Aug 2026 | 01:36:40 | |
The conclusion of our two-part special. The trend followers are joined again by Mark "Moose" McGrath to walk the final four strategic ideas from the old military thinkers, asking the same question at each: does the answer hold on both sides of the door, for warfare and for trend following alike? Part One was about the condition we all work under. Part Two is about the craft — what you actually do with it. How you win when your chance finally comes, when to let go, how you survive a blow, and the kind of mind that holds it all together. A smaller room this time. Mike Melissinos and Ben Ford couldn't join us, so Jerry carries the trend following side and Moose heads up the strategists' side on his own. In this episode
🐢 A note on what's next: this may be our last episode for a while. We're taking a well-earned break as we consider changing the format and bringing you something rather different. Nothing is decided yet — we'll keep you posted on when, or if, the show returns in a new shape. Fifteen episodes in, thank you for turning up. 🎙️ Guest
Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you. #TrendFollowing #OODALoop #Trading #Uncertainty | |||
| Turtle Talk Episode 14: Inside the Loop — Uncertainty in War and the Markets (Part One) | 27 Jun 2026 | 01:33:58 | |
A special two-part episode. The trend followers are joined by two Marines, Mark "Moose" McGrath and Ben Ford, to walk eight strategic ideas from the old military thinkers and ask one question at each: does the answer hold on both sides of the door, for warfare and for trend following alike? The thread under all of it: in war, the Marine has to predict, because nothing tells him where the enemy will be. The trend follower never predicts, because the price already gives him the crowd's answer in one live number. Prediction on one side, following on the other. Part One covers the first four ideas. Part Two arrives next month. In this episode
🐢 Next month, Part Two: the orthodox and the unorthodox, the culminating point, defence in depth, and the strategist's mind. Subscribe so you don't miss it. 🎙️ Guests
📩 Shell Mail questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you. #TrendFollowing #OODALoop #Trading #Markets | |||
| Turtle Talk Podcast Episode 13: The Punk Rocker of Trend Following: Mike Melissinos. | 31 May 2026 | 01:46:29 | |
Join Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv for Episode 13 of Turtle Talk, with a very special guest: Mike Melissinos, founder of Melissinos Trading and one of the genuinely uncompromising classic trend followers you can count on one hand. Same system, same rules since 2011, no watering it down for institutional palatability. Rich and Adam are fresh back from Malaysia, and April delivered one of the wildest months in memory. A tariff shock, a ceasefire reversal, the Strait closing, and energy and metals whipping in opposite directions. Classic trend following held its nerve and came out on top. In this episode: 📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes, April 2026 Review The Classic Trend Index finished April up 6.7%, the highest return against the peer benchmarks and a strong reversal from a slightly negative prior month. Rich digs into the VAMI chart, the widening separation since January 2020, and his "smooth world to rough world" thesis: why amplified convexity rewards those who keep their outliers intact, and why smoothing the equity curve costs you the very trades that define the strategy. 👉 Full report: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-april-2026/ 📈 What's Moved the Needle Jerry makes the case for the strong Australian dollar and the underused world of currency crosses, recalling the Mark versus Franc monster trend of the 90s. Mike brings SanDisk, up over 4,000% in a year, a genuine 40-bagger and poster child of the AI storage trade. Adam ties the AI and RAM thematic across Asia, with Taiwan up around 100%, Japan around 50%, and the Samsung-heavy Korean index up roughly 300%. 🎙️ Spotlight: The Mike Melissinos Story The main event. From public accounting and a quiet summer at Bear Stearns in 2007, to discovering trend following as the GFC unraveled, to launching his firm in 2011 into one of the toughest regimes the strategy has ever seen. We go deep on Ed Seykota and the Trading Tribe, the "trend following blues," surviving a 50% plus drawdown, and the hard-won discipline of feeling nothing when the performance finally arrives. 🔍 Coming Soon: Myth Busters and the Cutback Rule We ran out of clock, so Mike is coming back to finish the job. Next time: two Myth Busters, one from Jerry and one from Mike, plus a Shell Mail question on the cutback rule. 🐢 Connect with Mike Melissinos michael@melissinostrading.com https://melissinostrading.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmelissinos/ 📚 The Books Complex Adaptive Markets: How Living Systems Shape Finance. The theoretical foundation for why markets adapt. 👉 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FKZP8FQJ The Fractals of Finance: Determinism, Adaptation and the Geometry of Markets. Why trend following works, with a foreword by Jerry Parker. 👉 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide: A Field Manual for Hunting Outliers. Co-authored with Adam Havryliv. 👉 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FT1NCXP4 All three available now on Amazon in paperback, hardcover, and Kindle. 📩 Send your Shell Mail questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact Subscribe so you don't miss Mike's return for Myth Busters and the cutback rule. Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you. | |||
| Turtle Talk Episode 12 – Just the Turtles: February Review, Energy Breakouts & Myth Busting | 31 Mar 2026 | 01:36:38 | |
Join Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv for Episode 12 of Turtle Talk — no guests this month, just the three turtles going deep. February was another outstanding month for classic trend followers, but March has thrown a few spanners in the works. The guys unpack what's really driving performance, where the next big opportunities might be hiding, and take aim at some of the most persistent myths in the trend following space. In this episode: 📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – February 2026 Review All trend following benchmarks delivered strong February results. Classic Trend Index up 5.3% for the month, 14.6% over the last quarter, and 10.5% year to date — continuing to separate from the pack. A discussion on log-scale charting and what the February results really tell us (and don't tell us) about what comes next. 👉 Full report: https://www.aussieturtles.com 📈 What's Moved the Needle Jerry spotlights aluminium and bean oil — two markets showing that the opportunity set extends well beyond precious metals. Adam dives into the dramatic divergence between European and US natural gas, and the explosive breakout in Brent crude toward $114. A timely reminder that correlation is fragile when supply chains are under stress. 🐢 Turtle Tidbits – Deep Dives Two meaty topics from Jerry and Adam:
🔍 Myth Busters Jerry tackles two of the biggest misconceptions in the space:
📘 The Fractals of Finance Rich's book is available now on Amazon in Kindle, paperback, and hardcover. Search Fractals of Finance or Rich Brennan. If you've read it, a short review goes a long way. 👉 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK 📩 Send your Shell Mail questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact No episode in April — Rich and Adam are heading to the Malay Archipelago. Back in May, refreshed and ready. Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.
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| Turtle Talk Podcast - Episode 11: FX Arbitrage, Regime Change, and the Return of Classic Trend | 28 Feb 2026 | 01:29:43 | |
Join Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv for Episode 11 of Turtle Talk with special guest Sanjeev Lakhanpal, co-founder of Horizon3 Investment Management. 📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – January 2026 All seven benchmarks rallied in unison. Classic Trend and BTOP50 shared the lead at +5.0%, with dispersion compressing to just 1.1%. Classic Trend surpasses 140% cumulative since January 2020 with a 15.5% CAGR. 👉 Full report: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-january-2026/ 📈 What's Moved the Needle Metals dominate as Jerry walks through gold, silver, platinum, palladium and tin — including the brutal end-of-January sell-off. A passionate debate on vol-weighting vs loose pants, why cutting winners to improve Sharpe is a trap, and why one trade doesn't define a system. Adam brings cocoa's bear trend and Bitcoin's breakdown. Mulvaney's extraordinary January (+26%, reportedly 72% intra-month) sparks a discussion on convexity and why you can't replicate his CAGR by leveraging a smooth equity curve. 🎙 Spotlight – Sanjeev Lakhanpal (Horizon3 Investment Management) Sanj shares his journey from physics to AHL's trading desk running billions, working with David Beach — "the greatest trader no one's written a book about" — and the six-year quest to automate Beach's pattern recognition. He explains how Digital Signal Processing extracts diversified signals from price data and then reveals Horizon3's new FX Swap Arbitrage program: a market-neutral strategy exploiting structural swap rate differentials between brokers, averaging over 2% monthly with no losing months. He explains why the opportunity won't be arbitraged away and how it creates a 20-25% return cushion beneath the CTA. Contact Sanj: sanj@h3im.com | www.h3im.com 📬 Shell Mail Two questions from Lee: handling opposing signals under US FIFO rules (net at the portfolio level), and managing multi-currency balances as a global investor — including Adam's advice: go live where your profits are. 📘 The Fractals of Finance Rich shares why he wrote this book — a lifetime searching for certainty, finding trend following, and discovering the geometry beneath markets. With a foreword by Jerry Parker. Available in Kindle, paperback, and hardcover. 👉 Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK 🌐 Resources Report: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-january-2026/ Horizon3: www.h3im.com | sanj@h3im.com Book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK Questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you. | |||
| Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 010: Stocks, Outliers, and the Geometry of Trend | 01 Feb 2026 | 01:05:16 | |
Join Rich Brennan and Jerry Parker for Episode 10 of Turtle Talk, joined by special guest Cole Wilcox, CIO of Longboard Asset Management. No Adam this month, but a deep, wide-ranging conversation covering classic trend following, equity outliers, diversification myths, and why individual stocks may offer the cleanest expression of trend. In this episode:📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – December 2025 Review Classic Trend continues to separate from the pack, reaching new high-water marks while much of the CTA universe still lags prior peaks. We unpack dispersion, convexity, and why classic designs thrive when genuine trends emerge. 👉 Full report: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-december-2025/ 📈 What’s Moved the Needle Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and livestock trends take centre stage as multi-sigma moves remind traders where returns are actually made. The discussion cuts through daily noise to focus on long-horizon positioning, unrealised profits, and why parabolic moves signal fragility, not opportunity. 🎙 Spotlight Conversation – Cole Wilcox (Longboard Asset Management) A deep dive into equity trend following at the individual stock level. Cole explains:
A rare, first-principles discussion on outliers, capitalism, and why trend following belongs inside equities. Learn more about Cole’s work: https://longboardfunds.com/ 📘 Feature Highlight – The Fractals of Finance Rich introduces his latest book, The Fractals of Finance, now available on Amazon, with a foreword by Jerry Parker. The book explores why markets are fractal, why averages mislead, and why trend following works because of structure, not prediction. 👉 Available now on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK 🌐 Episode Resources
📩 Send questions for future episodes: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact Closing Thought Markets are producing moves no backtest prepared us for. Outliers are no longer rare. Systems matter. Process matters. And survival still comes before prediction. Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you. | |||
| Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 009: Outliers, Crises, and the Geometry of Trend | 30 Nov 2025 | 01:38:55 | |
Join Rich Brennan, Adam Havryliv, and Jerry Parker for a packed end of year episode of Turtle Talk. No guests this time, just the three of us digging into markets, exploring deep structural ideas, and sharing fresh insights from the worlds of trend following, diversification, and outlier hunting. This one is full of charts, data, lived experience, and a few laughs along the way. In this episode: 📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – October 2025 Review Classic Trend Index edges back into positive territory for the year. We walk through the latest numbers, the recovery from the mid year drawdown, and why outlier oriented programs continue to pull away from their higher Sharpe peers. 📈 What’s Moved the Needle Violent retracements in precious metals, deep reversals in cattle, and cycle high yields in the Japanese bond market. Jerry, Adam, and Rich break down the charts and discuss why trading through the noise requires loose pants, strong rules, and zero emotion. 🐢 Extended Turtle Tidbits A four part deep dive featuring: • Why Outlier Hunters Win Across Full Cycles, including calm world vs rough world dynamics and the geometry of compounding • One Hundred and Twenty Five Years of Crisis, and what history reveals about market structure, drawdowns, and fat tails • Diversification for Outlier Hunting, and why classic trend followers play a different game • Is Trend Following an Infinite Money Glitch, and what truly drives long term robustness 💬 Shell Mail (Q&A) Listener questions on stability, fragility, valuation extremes, diversification, and how to think about trend following when markets appear to be defying gravity. 🌐 Episode Resources Classic Trend Index: https://classictrendindex.com Aussie Turtles: https://www.aussieturtles.com ATS Trading Solutions: https://atstradingsolutions.com Send your questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact As our final episode for 2025, we want to thank every listener, supporter, and fellow trend follower who has joined us this year. From the three of us at Aussie Turtles, we wish you a very happy Christmas and a great New Year. We look forward to seeing you again when Turtle Talk returns in January. #TurtleTalk #TrendFollowing #OutlierHunter #AussieTurtles #SystematicTrading #JerryParker #CTA #MarketStructure | |||
| Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 008: Battle of the Trends, Pyramids, and Outlier Hunting | 31 Oct 2025 | 01:45:22 | |
Join Rich Brennan, Adam Havryliv, and Jerry Parker for another deep dive into the world of systematic trend following. No guests this month – just the three of us exploring markets, myth-busting, and celebrating the launch of our new book The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide. In this episode: 📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – September 2025 Review Trend followers surge back to strength as Classic Trend Index posts another standout month. We unpack what’s driving performance across the CTA landscape. 📈 What’s Moved the Needle Gold, Silver, and Platinum shake up the metals space while U.S. equities continue their relentless climb. Jerry shares how short-side stock trends and broad diversification keep portfolios robust. 🔍 MythBusters – Did the Turtles Pyramid? Jerry sets the record straight on one of the most persistent Turtle myths, explaining why spacing isn’t pyramiding and how disciplined risk sizing separates longevity from luck. 💡 Feature Spotlight – The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide Jerry flips the script and interviews Rich and Adam about their new book, the philosophy behind Outlier Hunting, and why mindset comes before mechanics in systematic trading. 💬 Shell Mail (Q&A) Listener questions on volatility targeting, fragility in trends, and how to think about robustness when markets compress. 🌐 Episode Resources:
📩 Send your questions for the next episode: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact #TrendFollowing #TurtleTalk #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #JerryParker #Fractals #CTAPerformance #ClassicTrendIndex #VolatilityCompression | |||
| 🐢 Turtle Talk Podcast: Episode 007 – Fractals, Expectancy, and Survival | 27 Sep 2025 | 01:28:44 | |
Join Rich, Adam, and Jerry as they dive deep into the structures that shape systematic trend following. No guests this month — just the three of us tackling big themes, fresh charts, and audience questions that get right to the heart of Outlier Hunting. In this episode: 📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – August review: classic trend bounces back, but what lies beneath the numbers? 📈 What’s Moved the Needle – JGBs, Copper (US & LME), Gold, Silver, and Live Cattle take center stage. 🔍 Turtle Tidbits – Five heavyweight topics:
💌 Shell Mail (Listener Q&A) – Audience questions on diversification sizing, lost decades in trend following, and quantifying fat-tailed events. 🎙️ Plus: Rich defends path dependence, Adam challenges mandate mixing, and Jerry sharpens his myth-busting sword. 📚 Special Announcement: Our new book The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide is being released next week! It’s the flagship collection of philosophy, process, and practice behind the Aussie Turtles® approach. Stay tuned @ https://www.aussieturtles.com/ for launch details. 🌐 Episode resources and reports discussed:
📩 Got questions for the pod? Send them in: 🔗 https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact #TrendFollowing #TurtleTalk #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #Fractals #JerryParker #Expectancy #CTAperformance | |||
| Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 006: The NYC Getaway: Outlier Hunting | 07 Sep 2025 | 01:00:13 | |
This month’s Turtle Talk is a little different — Rich and Adam join Jerry Parker at his New York getaway for a face-to-face deep dive into the philosophy and practice of outlier hunting. Recorded on Labor Day, the trio reflect on market adventures, harbor cruises, and the heart of classic trend following. In this special episode, we skip the usual segments and go straight to the foundations:
🎙️ Expect candid debate, laughs, and plenty of lessons as the Aussie Turtles and Jerry unpack what it really means to maximize CAGR through pure outlier hunting 📚 Coming Soon: The Aussie Turtles® Trend Following Guide – philosophy, process, and practice in one volume.
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| Turtle Talk Podcast Episode 005: Outliers, Recovery, and the Spirit of Classic Trend | 25 Jul 2025 | 01:00:28 | |
Join Rich, Adam and Jerry — this month joined by two special guests from the deep south — Bruno Campos (Brazil) and Andrés Petrocelli (Argentina) — as we explore the recovery phase in trend following and what sets outlier hunters apart from the rest. Note: Due to connection issues, Andrés was only able to join us for the introduction of the session. We look forward to having him back in a future episode for the full conversation. Bruno, a macroeconomist turned systematic investor, shares his journey from economic models to embracing uncertainty. We dig into the June trend following reports, challenge assumptions about diversification, and reflect on how outlier strategies diverge from vol-controlled approaches. In this episode: 📉 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: June saw a bounce across the board — but will the recovery be V-shaped? 🌾 What’s Moved the Needle: Grains collapse, metals surge, and bitcoin breaks out — with feeder cattle stealing the show 🔍 Outlier Hunting vs. Vol Control: Are some managers slowing their own recoveries by taming tail risk? 🎯 Spotlight on Bruno Campos: From factor research to trend conviction — an economist’s pivot to price 💬 Mythbuster with Jerry Parker: “Is the S&P a good trend following system?” Jerry says absolutely not — and here’s why. 🎙️ Plus: Adam questions mixed mandates, Rich defends idiosyncratic exposure, and Jerry plots his next myth to slay. 📚 Coming Soon: The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide is nearly here — our flagship book of trend following philosophy, process, and practice. Stay tuned for the release! 📩 Got questions for the pod? Send them in: 🔗 https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact-us/ 🌐 Catch episode details and more at: https://www.aussieturtles.com/turtle-talk/ 📊 Reports discussed: • Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – June 2025 • Rising Stars and Trend Titans – June 2025 #TrendFollowing #TurtleTalk #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #ClassicTrend #JerryParker #BrunoCampos #AndresPetrocelli #MomentumEdge #QuantInvesting | |||
| Episode 004: From Lab Coat to Trend Charts: Dr. Kevin Maki | 08 Jul 2025 | 01:06:24 | |
In Episode 004 of Turtle Talk, Rich, Adam and Jerry are joined by evidence-based investor Dr. Kevin Maki for a sharp, data-driven conversation on trend following from the investor’s seat. They dive into drawdowns, model robustness, and the overlooked edge of momentum quality, all through the lens of disciplined, statistical thinking. | |||
| Episode 003: Featuring Special Guest Moritz Seibert – "Outliers, Drawdowns, and the Edge of Classic Trend" | 08 Jul 2025 | 01:20:16 | |
In Episode 003 of Turtle Talk, Rich, Adam, and Jerry are joined by trend tactician Moritz Seibert for a wide-ranging, no-filter discussion on navigating drawdowns, unleashing outliers, and staying true to the classic trend code. | |||
| Episode 002: "Riding the Storm with Salem Abraham" | 08 Jul 2025 | 01:43:16 | |
In Episode 002 of Turtle Talk, Rich, Adam, and Jerry are joined by trend-following legend Salem Abraham for a no-holds-barred conversation about thriving in turbulent markets. | |||
| Episode 001: "The Classic Trend Addicts are Back" | 08 Jul 2025 | 01:01:06 | |
In the debut episode of Turtle Talk, Rich, Adam, and trend-following legend Jerry Parker dive into the raw, unfiltered world of Classic Trend Following. They break down the latest trend-following index battle, spotlight rising stars, debunk common myths, and explain why chasing outliers—not smoothing returns—is the key to long-term success. No overlays, no shortcuts—just pure trend addiction! | |||