Explore every episode of the podcast Top Traders Unplugged
| Title | Pub. Date | Duration | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SI420: The Market Might Be More Fragile Than It Looks ft. Cem Karsan | 02 oct. 2026 | 01:04:20 | |
Alan Dunne is joined by Cem Karsan to examine the forces pushing bond yields higher and why he believes markets are becoming increasingly fragile. Cem argues that refinancing pressures, persistent inflation, declining foreign demand for Treasuries and the enormous capital requirements of the AI boom are creating an unusually unstable backdrop. They discuss the concentration of equity market growth around AI, the relationship between government policy and financial markets, and Cem’s expectation that a Treasury market shock could eventually trigger a forceful policy response. They also explore political risk, market volatility, monetary debasement and why traditional stock and bond portfolios may face a very different environment ahead. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why Cem believes the next V-shaped market move is coming 00:58 - Introduction and what’s on Cem’s radar 03:34 - A strong year for trend following 05:29 - What is driving bond yields higher? 09:09 - Inflation, debt and declining foreign demand for Treasuries 12:53 - Why short-term interest rate expectations have shifted so dramatically 18:01 - Can rising bond yields eventually break the equity market? 19:00 - Why Cem questions the sustainability of AI-driven earnings growth 25:27 - Market concentration and the growing fragility of the system 33:54 - Government intervention and the return of the V-shaped market 37:19 - Cem’s case for a coming Treasury market shock 42:50 - Why the US midterm elections could matter for markets 46:43 - What the options market is pricing for the months ahead 48:27 - Bond volatility and where yields could go next 50:41 - Could the US eventually create a sovereign wealth fund? 54:34 - Inflation, equities and the importance of real returns 01:00:13 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may face a different future Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| TTU153: Why Investors Keep Getting Trend Following Wrong ft. Patrick Welton | 30 sept. 2026 | 01:06:53 | |
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne are joined by Welton Investment Corporation founder Patrick Welton to explore what four decades in markets have taught him about trading, risk and managing other people’s money. Pat shares lessons from his encounters with Paul Tudor Jones and John Henry before explaining why taking outside capital fundamentally changes a manager’s responsibility. They discuss the real sources of trend following returns, why managers can damage their edge by listening too closely to clients, and whether replication and multi-strategy funds have changed the landscape. They also explore capacity, changing market regimes and why investor behavior may ultimately matter more than finding the perfect strategy. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Find out more about DUNN Capital. Follow Patrick on LinkedIn. Episode Timestamps: Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI419: What Happens When AI Starts Building the Portfolio ft. Nick Baltas | 26 sept. 2026 | 01:05:34 | |
Alan Dunne is joined by Nick Baltas to discuss a strong period for trend following and what the latest research says about adapting systematic strategies to changing markets. They examine whether volatility can help determine how quickly trend models should react, and why Nick remains skeptical of relying on regime triggers with limited statistical evidence. The conversation then turns to agentic AI and a new framework for using specialized AI agents in asset allocation. Nick explores how agents could analyze macro regimes, challenge competing portfolio approaches and help investment committees make decisions faster, while also confronting problems around look-ahead bias, reproducibility and human oversight. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and what’s caught Nick’s attention 01:31 - The extraordinary concentration inside the S&P 500 04:12 - Why bond yields are rising around the world 08:28 - A strong month and year for trend following 12:08 - Why the bond move has happened without a volatility spike 15:12 - Can volatility make trend following more adaptive? 20:43 - What the latest research actually tells us 23:21 - How Nick uses volatility in portfolio construction 25:50 - Can investors identify trend regimes in advance? 27:04 - Why making trend models more complicated may not help 29:30 - V-shaped markets and the problem with regime triggers 32:01 - How agentic AI could reshape asset allocation 44:14 - What actually drives an AI-built portfolio? 50:03 - Why backtesting AI investment models is so difficult 55:05 - Could the same AI framework work for trend following? 58:33 - Using AI to manage competing investment objectives 01:01:22 - When will we see portfolios run by AI agents? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| OI24: Why Power Trading Is 10 Times Crazier Than Crypto ft. Cory Paddock | 23 sept. 2026 | 00:59:31 | |
Moritz Seibert is joined by GBE Energy co-founder Cory Paddock for a look inside the unusual world of proprietary power trading. Cory explains how electricity markets combine weather, physics and economics, and why understanding supply and demand can create opportunities in markets where prices can change dramatically within minutes. They explore the psychology behind taking risk, why a handful of exceptional days can define an entire year, and the lessons Cory learned from his biggest wins and losses. They also discuss GBE’s approach to developing young traders and how AI is accelerating the process of turning raw talent into real trading ability. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Follow Cory on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Knowing when to walk away from a losing trade 01:03 - Introducing Cory Paddock and GBE Energy 04:35 - How US power markets actually work 08:21 - PJM and the changing US electricity mix 11:07 - Why North America effectively has three separate power grids 14:42 - What a power trader actually trades 19:40 - Why electricity trading never really stops 21:48 - Finding an edge through supply, demand and weather 28:13 - Why power markets remain so attractive to traders 30:37 - What “10 times crypto” volatility looks like 33:50 - The four stages of becoming a power trader 36:07 - Conviction, sizing and getting comfortable with being uncomfortable 38:15 - The trades that helped create GBE Energy 40:42 - What a painful losing trade taught Cory 43:16 - Why GBE changed the way it recruits traders 48:57 - What Cory looks for in aspiring traders 50:50 - How quickly can someone learn to trade power? 53:31 - AI, data centers and the future of electricity markets Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI418: Why Markets Are More Alive Than We Think ft. Richard Brennan | 19 sept. 2026 | 01:15:35 | |
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Richard Brennan explore what the science of complex adaptive systems can teach us about markets and trend following. Drawing on research from the Santa Fe Institute, they examine why markets may be better understood as evolving systems shaped by the participants within them rather than machines moving toward equilibrium. They discuss reflexivity, increasing returns and how trends can begin to reinforce themselves, before asking what this means for systematic investors. Along the way, Richard explains why backtests are evidence rather than promises, why taking profits too early can be costly, and why responding to markets may ultimately matter more than predicting them. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why trend following’s edge may have moved rather than disappeared 03:26 - What three years of research revealed about trend following 06:50 - Why big trends and outliers are structural features of markets 11:35 - Trend following performance and what’s moving markets 16:49 - Should trend followers ever take profits early? 21:03 - What the Santa Fe Institute can teach us about markets 25:51 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems 29:46 - Reflexivity and how investors help create market outcomes 35:18 - Why equilibrium may be the wrong way to think about markets 40:22 - Mean reversion, positive feedback and why trends persist 42:55 - Increasing returns and the lessons of VHS versus Betamax 50:01 - How market movements begin to feed on themselves 54:11 - Why trend following emerged inside an artificial stock market 58:20 - How every system eventually gets gamed 01:01:47 - What backtests can and cannot tell us about the future 01:08:31 - How trend followers prepare for a future they cannot predict Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth | 16 sept. 2026 | 01:03:57 | |
Today we talk with the editor of the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth. Robin is the author of A Fabulous Debt - the Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World. He tells the story of the bond market’s beginnings in Venice and how the ability to issue and trade bonds was an essential aspect of its rise to power. Robin explains why historically bond markets and democracy have gone hand-in-hand. Innovations in how bonds are structured and traded also have the ability alter market fundamentals and he explains how this happened with the US junk bond market pioneered by Michael Milken. We talk about likely future innovations and finish with a discussion of current bond market turmoil and the implications for both the Fed and Treasury. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Robin on X and Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - How junk bonds changed the market 00:56 - Introducing Robin Wigglesworth and A Fabulous Debt 03:39 - Why ignorance can actually help you understand history 07:50 - How Venice accidentally invented the bond market 12:55 - How bonds helped strengthen democracy and accountability 17:31 - How Britain turned bonds into a global reserve asset 24:43 - Why strong bond markets often create stronger countries 28:56 - Could Europe ever create a true Eurobond market? 32:19 - How the modern international bond market was born 39:39 - Michael Milken and the rise of junk bonds 44:21 - How Milken changed the market he was studying 48:51 - Tokenization and the next evolution of fixed income 49:28 - Why bond ETFs may have actually improved liquidity 55:24 - What Treasury buybacks are really trying to achieve 57:33 - Why Robin thinks the buybacks won’t solve the problem Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI417: What Happens When AI Starts Trading the Markets ft. Rob Carver | 12 sept. 2026 | 01:08:30 | |
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Rob Carver discuss a market that feels unusually calm despite growing pressure beneath the surface. They look at rising concerns around government debt and bond yields, recent changes to a major managed futures ETF, and why style drift matters for systematic investors. Rob explains why simplicity and robustness remain essential when building trading systems, and where discretion can and cannot fit into a systematic process. They also explore the risks of using AI in quantitative investing, whether AI-driven traders could change market behavior, and why adapting trend speed to volatility may be more complicated than it first appears. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Rob’s return from the summer break 02:03 - Why everyone is suddenly talking about bonds 05:07 - Treasury buybacks and the potential for new bond trends 07:40 - What happened to the Simplify managed futures ETF? 14:34 - Style drift, investor expectations and changing strategies 17:15 - Why it feels like something is about to happen in markets 20:23 - Trend following performance and the year so far 23:32 - How much should systematic investors actually optimize? 31:38 - Can discretion and systematic trading really work together? 36:37 - Where human judgment belongs in a trading strategy 40:55 - Why traders may be better at buying than selling 44:21 - AI, quant research and the risks of automated trading 52:42 - Revisiting volatility and trend following 55:47 - Why not all high-volatility markets are the same 01:00:23 - The quant winter and why manager diversification matters Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM107: What If AI Actually Pushes Interest Rates Higher? ft. Matt Klein | 09 sept. 2026 | 01:02:04 | |
Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be misleading and why stronger productivity could actually push interest rates higher rather than lower. They explore the surge in AI investment, what rising bond yields really tell us about the economy, and whether US debt levels are as worrying as they appear. The conversation also turns to China’s enormous trade surplus, growing global imbalances, the prospect of European tariffs, currency intervention and what Kevin Warsh’s new Fed task forces could mean for monetary policy. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Matt on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Matt Klein’s return to Top Traders Unplugged 01:57 - Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole and the outlook for the Fed 05:15 - Why the AI boom may not look like the 1990s 11:39 - How quickly could AI actually boost productivity? 15:47 - Are we seeing an AI productivity boom in the data? 18:56 - Does AI change how we should think about the economy? 21:41 - AI spending, data centers and the risk of a capex bust 26:18 - Why bond yields could have further to rise 31:13 - When higher interest rates might actually be good news 33:17 - US debt sustainability and the risk of a bad equilibrium 37:04 - China and the return of global economic imbalances 42:11 - How China’s massive trade surplus is affecting the world 48:50 - Tariffs, Europe and how countries might respond to China 52:01 - Why the US intervened in the Japanese yen 58:33 - Kevin Warsh’s Fed task forces and what could change next Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI416: 137 Years of Trend: What the Evidence Really Shows ft. Yoav Git | 05 sept. 2026 | 01:14:29 | |
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git examine why trend following continues to endure despite decades of changing markets and persistent skepticism. They revisit AQR’s 137-year study of trend following, exploring diversification, volatility scaling and the behavioral and economic forces behind persistent trends. The conversation also turns to the mechanics of commodity markets, using the 2020 oil collapse to show how inventories, storage capacity and forced futures rolls can produce extreme price moves. Along the way, they discuss investor trust, systematic risk intervention, CTA implementation and why understanding market structure matters just as much as building the signal. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Yoav on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Yoav's radar 01:54 - Why investor relationships are ultimately built on trust 06:36 - CTA ETFs, strategy changes and investor transparency 10:55 - Multi-strategy funds and the cost of complexity 12:36 - TTU competition winners and the August trend update 16:14 - Global rates, Japan and opportunities beyond U.S. bonds 19:07 - August performance and the Trend Barometer 21:09 - Correlation, volatility and how CTAs manage portfolio risk 25:09 - Human intervention inside a systematic investment process 29:40 - Where different commodity market participants operate 31:44 - Revisiting 137 years of evidence for trend following 38:30 - Has trend following performance actually deteriorated? 43:58 - Why diversification is fundamental to trend following 51:16 - Oil squeezes, storage and the mechanics of commodity markets 58:00 - Carry, inventories and oil price elasticity 01:04:36 - What really caused oil prices to turn negative in 2020 01:09:40 - What commodity market structure teaches trend followers Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM106: What Happens When the Debt Finally Matters ft. Marvin Barth | 02 sept. 2026 | 01:24:20 | |
Marvin Barth joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan for a wide-ranging debate about the Fed, inflation and the growing pressures on the US economy. Barth argues that central bankers have become too confident in models that cannot fully capture reality, while the conversation quickly turns to Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the power of signaling in financial markets. From there, Cem and Marvin "clash" over austerity, debt monetization, populism and inequality before examining why inflation expectations may matter more than individual shocks. We round this super energetic conversation by exploring the coming historic El Niño, commodity disruptions and what Warsh’s recent dovish turn could reveal about the future of Fed policy. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why inflation expectations matter more than anything else 01:05 - Introducing Marvin Barth 04:46 - From salmon fishing to the Federal Reserve 09:09 - Has central banking become too confident in its own models? 16:25 - Bessent, Warsh and what Treasury buybacks really mean 18:15 - Why signaling may matter more than the actual policy 25:56 - Can the US actually solve its debt problem through austerity? 31:25 - Debt, inflation, China and the pressures building in the system 35:31 - Is there another way out for the US economy? 40:29 - The big debate over populism and inequality 47:39 - Free markets, fairness and who actually benefits 57:59 - Why inflation ultimately comes down to expectations 59:46 - Austerity versus monetizing the debt 01:02:06 - How El Niño could reshape inflation and emerging markets 01:11:26 - Has Kevin Warsh already changed course at the Fed? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI415: Maybe This Is Just What Normal Markets Look Like ft. Alan Dunne | 29 août 2026 | 01:06:54 | |
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne examine how a changing macro regime is reshaping markets and the role of trend following. They discuss unusual U.S. intervention in the yen, mounting sensitivity around Treasury yields, and questions surrounding Kevin Warsh’s communication and the Fed’s credibility. Alan identifies three fractures defining the new regime: persistent inflation, growing debt sustainability concerns, and the erosion of institutional norms. They also explore why trend following has performed differently this decade, particularly during periods of bond market stress, before comparing AQR and GMO’s strikingly different long-term return assumptions and what they imply for portfolio construction. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and what’s been on Alan’s radar 01:55 - Why U.S. intervention in the yen matters 07:04 - Zuckerberg, Meta and the $16.68 billion question 08:31 - August trend following performance and market intervention 12:16 - Why CTA performance is increasingly dispersed 16:08 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed balance sheet and Treasury supply 18:56 - Has short-term trend following structurally degraded? 22:17 - Macro narratives versus systematic positioning 24:37 - Fed communication, credibility and the Warsh reaction function 30:16 - Bessent, Warsh, Druckenmiller and the battle over bond yields 34:23 - The three fractures reshaping the macro regime 41:42 - How trend following has changed in the new regime 49:54 - Commodities, deglobalization and diversification 52:29 - AQR versus GMO: radically different forecasts for future returns 01:02:08 - Debt sustainability and what investors should watch next Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| IL52: Why Staying Calm Is the Ultimate Investing Edge ft. David Booth | 26 août 2026 | 00:47:12 | |
In today’s episode we talk with a pioneer of modern asset management, Dimensional Fund Advisors founder David Booth. David founded Dimensional in 1981 and it has since grown to over $1 trillion in assets, making it one of the most successful quantitative investment firms in history. We talk with him about his new book, Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life. We discuss his early career working on both the world’s first index fund and the first active quant strategy developed by finance legends Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. David explains why successful investing involves embracing uncertainty - because it is that uncertainty that generates long-run returns. He explains why we should abandon predicting markets and focus instead on planning. We end by discussing why he is both a realist and optimist and how each of us can cultivate the same mindset. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow David on LinkedIn and Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why uncertainty creates opportunity for long term investors 01:01 - David Booth's journey from Kansas to pioneering modern investing 06:13 - The birth of index investing and the origins of Dimensional 10:21 - Why investing is about managing uncertainty not predicting markets 13:00 - Why everyone should own part of the market 14:00 - Human ingenuity, market resilience and the lessons of history 18:02 - Updating research without abandoning first principles 23:38 - Has the rise of index investing changed the market? 28:45 - Diversification beyond the Magnificent Seven 29:52 - Tuning out market noise and focusing on what matters 32:23 - Why life events should shape your portfolio more than headlines 34:53 - Plan don't predict and learning to stay calm 39:02 - Optimism, realism and why markets continue to work 42:33 - Why investors have never had it better Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI414: The Hidden Risks Beneath the Treasury Market ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 22 août 2026 | 01:14:08 | |
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine the warning signs emerging beneath seemingly calm markets, from extreme single-stock moves and commodity shortages to growing strains in the U.S. Treasury market. They explore how leveraged hedge funds and basis trades have become increasingly important to Treasury liquidity, and why market plumbing can matter as much as price signals. The conversation then turns to the evolution of trend following, comparing different approaches to signals and position sizing, the benefits of combining methodologies, and why short-term trend strategies face structural challenges. Finally, Mark reflects on the legacy of quantitative trading pioneer Victor Niederhoffer. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and summer reflections 01:42 - Warning signs and rumblings beneath the markets 07:06 - Extreme single-stock moves and hidden risk 10:09 - Copper, inventories and commodity squeezes 13:08 - Oil markets and the danger of disappearing buffer stocks 14:51 - August trend following performance 16:01 - Why market uncertainty could create new trends 20:37 - The Treasury buyback program and bond market liquidity 27:10 - Is the Treasury quietly stabilizing long-term yields? 31:56 - The plumbing problem inside the U.S. Treasury market 36:28 - Hedge funds, basis trades and leverage 41:40 - Can Treasuries still be considered a safe asset? 47:17 - Three different approaches to trend following 52:25 - How investors should diversify across trend managers 56:49 - The “podification” of trend following 59:29 - Why short-term trend following struggles 01:03:19 - Victor Niederhoffer and the foundations of quantitative trading Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| ALO38: Why the Old Rules of Diversification Are Changing ft. Mike Pyle | 19 août 2026 | 01:04:24 | |
Alan Dunne is joined by Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group, to explore how a supply-driven world is reshaping markets and portfolio construction. They discuss the transition from the demand-constrained 2010s to an era defined by scarcity, fiscal activism, geopolitical shocks and the immense capital demands of AI. Pyle explains why bonds may no longer provide the diversification they once did, why hedge funds and market-neutral strategies are becoming increasingly important, and how portable alpha can separate beta from return generation. They also examine AI productivity, equity valuations and what should replace the traditional 60/40 portfolio. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Mike on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 Mike Pyle’s journey from policymaking to investing 04:30 The shift from a demand-driven to a supply-driven world 07:29 Why the stock-bond relationship has changed 12:09 The return of fiscal activism 15:52 AI, scarcity and the growing demands on capital 19:57 When will AI productivity begin to transform the economy? 22:53 AI, inflation and the future of interest rates 25:23 AI valuations, earnings and whether markets are in a bubble 29:48 Building portfolios for the new macro regime 33:35 Private markets, income and hedge fund diversification 37:06 Why multi-strategy investing matters 42:19 Leverage, factor exposure and lessons from the quant crisis 46:08 Why the environment for hedge funds has improved 48:39 Portable alpha and separating alpha from beta 52:51 What comes after the traditional 60/40 portfolio 56:47 How AI could transform investment management 01:00:19 Mike Pyle’s advice for the next generation of investors Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI413: Why Trend Following Is More Than Crisis Alpha ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel | 15 août 2026 | 01:21:31 | |
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel to examine a remarkable period for systematic investing. They discuss how CTAs have navigated volatile moves across equities, commodities, currencies and rates while preserving strong gains, and why diversification has been central to that resilience. The conversation explores leverage, the renewed interest in managed accounts and portable alpha, alongside the growing distinction between trend and non-trend strategies. They also challenge the traditional framing of CTAs as crisis alpha, debate whether greater complexity actually improves returns, and examine the difficulties investors face when selecting managers and benchmarking an industry where yesterday’s winners may not remain tomorrow’s leaders. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Follow Tom on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and eclipse mania 02:57 - Volatility, valuations and a changing market environment 06:22 - Trend Barometer falls as opportunities narrow 08:21 - How CTAs have navigated 2026 10:10 - An extraordinary year for systematic investing 14:07 - Yen intervention and CTA resilience 17:11 - Trend versus non-trend performance 22:20 - August performance and the systematic landscape 24:48 - Active commodity strategies versus traditional CTAs 29:39 - Situational Awareness and the risks of leverage 32:14 - Managed accounts, capital efficiency and risk control 37:49 - Are systematic strategies becoming over-engineered? 42:45 - The growing divide between trend and non-trend CTAs 50:34 - Reframing trend following as all-weather alpha 55:07 - Why the crisis alpha narrative can be misleading 01:04:06 - The hidden challenges of CTA benchmarks 01:12:12 - Manager selection and diversification across CTAs 01:14:15 - Does non-trend really improve a CTA portfolio? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| ALO37: Investing in the New World Order ft. Charles-Henry Monchau | 12 août 2026 | 01:02:02 | |
Charles-Henry Monchau joins Alan Dunne to discuss how geopolitics, artificial intelligence and structural economic shifts are reshaping global investing. They explore the AI supercycle, the changing balance between the US, China and Europe, sovereign debt, inflation, commodities and the future of asset allocation. Charles explains why investors should focus on long-term structural themes rather than short-term market noise and why the biggest opportunities may lie beyond the current AI infrastructure boom. The conversation also examines Europe’s competitiveness, China’s innovation strategy and the risks that could define the next phase of the investment cycle. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Charles on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Charles-Henry Monchau's path into investing 03:49 - The new geopolitical order and global investing 09:02 - Is artificial intelligence inflationary or deflationary? 12:49 - The AI CapEx supercycle and future market winners 18:41 - Are markets in an earnings bubble? 21:27 - Capital spending, debt issuance and market liquidity 25:22 - Sovereign debt and the future of asset allocation 28:13 - Gold, fiscal dominance and reserve currencies 32:27 - Kevin Warsh and the future of the Federal Reserve 40:36 - China's innovation strategy and investment outlook 43:49 - Building portfolios around AI winners and losers 48:12 - Commodities, biotech and defense opportunities 51:10 - Can Europe remain competitive? 57:23 - The biggest risks facing investors today 58:45 - Career advice for the next generation of investors Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI412: Portable Alpha: Asking the Questions That Matter ft. Harry Moore | 08 août 2026 | 01:19:34 | |
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Harry Moore explore the latest developments in trend following, the AI investment boom and why diversification matters most when markets come under pressure. They discuss CTA performance, market dispersion, portable alpha, cash efficient portfolio construction and the role of trend following during major market drawdowns. The conversation also examines how artificial intelligence is transforming quantitative research, the practical challenges of portfolio implementation and new research linking classic Turtle Trading principles to modern portfolio theory. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Harry on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Market headlines, AI investing and recent macro developments 09:32 - Trend following performance and July market review 18:42 - How market selection drives CTA performance 22:21 - The AI trade and why trend following provides portfolio resilience 30:36 - How AI is transforming quantitative research 36:07 - Portable alpha and why cash efficiency matters 46:14 - Cash buffers, margin management and implementation risks 56:33 - Correlation, diversification and building resilient portfolios 58:15 - The mathematics behind the Turtle Trading rules 01:08:54 - Why risk management has always been the core of trend following 01:11:28 - Understanding leverage in portable alpha strategies 01:18:32 - Listener questions and final thoughts Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| ALO36: The Endowment Playbook for Long-Term Investing ft. Paul Chai | 05 août 2026 | 01:01:09 | |
Paul Chai joins Alan Dunne to discuss what it takes to manage a perpetual investment portfolio designed to support future generations. As CIO of the Kansas State University Foundation, Paul explains how disciplined asset allocation, thoughtful manager selection and strong governance create resilient long-term results. The conversation explores endowment investing, private markets, hedge funds, portfolio construction and the importance of building a decision-making culture where diverse perspectives are encouraged. It is a wide-ranging discussion about investing with humility, managing uncertainty and creating an investment process that can endure through changing market environments. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Paul on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why better investment decisions start with diverse thinking 01:02 - Paul Chai's journey from engineering to institutional investing 04:50 - Managing a perpetual endowment for future generations 08:48 - Building resilient strategic asset allocations 11:54 - The advantages of managing a $1.2 billion endowment 15:29 - Portfolio construction beyond the traditional 60/40 model 20:57 - Strategic asset allocation versus total portfolio investing 24:05 - Lessons from the Yale Endowment model 26:26 - Finding unconventional investment opportunities 31:21 - Building a diversifying hedge fund portfolio 38:02 - Why CTA strategies no longer fit the portfolio 43:01 - Manager selection, due diligence and finding alpha 45:39 - The importance of grit when selecting investment managers 51:25 - Building better investment teams and decision-making cultures 57:20 - Advice for the next generation of long-term investors Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI411: Why the Best Portfolios Are Built to Be Wrong ft. David Dredge & Richard Brennan | 01 août 2026 | 01:59:34 | |
The future isn’t hidden. It hasn’t been written yet. That idea anchors this foundational conversation between Dave Dredge, Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, on what risk really means in markets. They challenge the mathematics behind modern portfolio construction, exposing how calm conditions can conceal leverage, how diversification can fail when it matters most, and why familiar measures such as volatility and Sharpe ratios often miss the forces that lead to permanent loss. From path dependency and complex adaptive systems to trend following, convexity and the geometry of wealth, this episode offers a different framework for investing under uncertainty. For anyone responsible for preserving and compounding capital, this is essential listening. Because the strongest portfolio is not the one built around being right, but the one prepared to survive being wrong. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Follow David on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Market review, July performance and introducing Dave Dredge 08:01 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems 18:49 - Price insensitive investors and the hidden drivers of markets 26:03 - How market participants create fat tails and volatility 31:38 - Where major market moves really come from 39:05 - Ergodicity and why sequence matters in investing 46:37 - The forest fire analogy for understanding financial risk 51:15 - Why calm markets often hide the greatest dangers 56:13 - Leverage, convexity and the source of market fragility 01:00:53 - Why optimal portfolio construction can increase risk 01:05:38 - Football, convexity and building resilient portfolios 01:13:03 - Why the Sharpe ratio fails to measure real risk 01:21:40 - Lessons for trend followers navigating complex markets Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| IL51: Why Most Recessions Are Completely Misunderstood ft. Tyler Goodspeed | 29 juil. 2026 | 01:01:34 | |
Why do recessions happen? Tyler Goodspeed joins Kevin Coldiron to challenge some of the most deeply held beliefs in economics. Drawing on more than three centuries of data from the United States and the United Kingdom, he argues that recessions are rarely the inevitable consequence of excess or financial imbalances. Instead, they are often triggered by unexpected external shocks that are difficult to predict. The conversation explores why expansions do not simply die of old age, why recessions fail to cleanse the economy, and what policymakers and investors should focus on instead when preparing for an uncertain future. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Tyler on LinkedIn and Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why recessions are often caused by unexpected shocks 00:54 - Tyler Goodspeed's research into four centuries of economic history 06:05 - Why economic expansions do not die of old age 13:48 - Debunking the boom and bust theory of recessions 18:13 - Does monetary policy matter as much as we think 21:57 - Financial crises, credit growth and what the data really shows 27:11 - Why energy supply shocks have shaped economic history 30:58 - Why the UK and US have experienced different recessions 35:31 - Government intervention and whether it reduces recessions 39:09 - Do recessions actually make economies stronger 44:16 - Why the UK never returned to its pre 2008 growth trend 47:51 - Financial repression, government debt and the lessons of 2008 51:32 - Randomness, resilience and preparing for economic shocks 56:20 - Rare earths, energy security and the next potential recession trigger Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI410: The Next Evolution of Trend Following ft. Nick Baltas | 25 juil. 2026 | 01:10:31 | |
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Nick Baltas explore how artificial intelligence, thematic investing and narrative momentum are beginning to reshape systematic investing. Alongside a review of recent CTA performance, they discuss new research on expanding trend following universes, defensive portfolio construction and portable alpha before taking a deep dive into the growing role of AI and thematic risk models. The conversation examines whether future investment signals may come from more than price alone and how systematic investors can combine traditional trend following with new sources of information without losing the discipline that has defined the strategy for decades. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - AI, memories and the changing pace of innovation 06:32 - How investment firms are integrating artificial intelligence 13:01 - CTA performance and the trend following environment 20:34 - Expanding the market universe for trend followers 28:17 - Building the perfect hedge with trend following 34:25 - Portable alpha and leveraging trend strategies 37:44 - Introducing thematic investing and missing factors 44:59 - How narratives create momentum in financial markets 50:43 - Measuring thematic strength versus price momentum 58:41 - Can thematic investing be backtested? 01:04:14 - Are narratives really different from traditional sectors? 01:07:06 - Final thoughts on AI, research and the future of systematic investing Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| OI23: Why Capital Efficiency Is the Next Edge in Investing ft. Charlie McGarraugh | 22 juil. 2026 | 00:46:42 | |
Charlie McGarraugh joins Moritz Seibert to discuss how systematic investing is evolving beyond traditional trend following. Drawing on experience from Goldman Sachs, crypto and machine learning, Charlie explains why adaptive portfolios, capital efficiency and smarter position sizing may become the defining advantages for the next generation of macro investors. They explore the rise of managed futures ETFs, China's growing futures markets, the trade off between diversification and simplicity, and why portfolio construction often matters more than finding the next predictive signal. It is a thoughtful conversation about where systematic investing may be heading next. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why position sizing may matter more than return prediction 01:03 - Charlie McGarra's journey from Goldman Sachs to Altis Partners 09:03 - The history of Altis Partners and its evolution beyond trend following 11:19 - Building a multi factor macro strategy around trend 16:02 - Why adaptive investing is becoming increasingly important 21:49 - The growth of managed futures ETFs and reaching new investors 25:27 - Designing ETFs for diversification and capital efficiency 30:30 - Why Chinese commodity futures offer unique opportunities 40:41 - New ideas around leverage and capital efficiency 42:37 - Kelly sizing, drawdowns and maximizing long term returns Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI409: Why Trend Following Is Changing Faster Than Ever ft. Yoav Git | 18 juil. 2026 | 01:08:32 | |
Markets are evolving in ways that few investors fully appreciate. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore how changing market structure, the rise of retail options trading and new financial products are reshaping trend following. They discuss why short term strategies have become more challenging, whether single stock futures could open new opportunities, and what recent research reveals about narratives, thematic investing and diversification. Along the way they examine commodities, equity markets and the practical realities of systematic investing, offering a thoughtful perspective on how trend followers continue to adapt as markets become increasingly complex. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Yoav on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - England, the World Cup final and new futures market innovations 06:30 - Bruno Mars, hedge fund blow up risk and AI investment concerns 12:40 - July trend following performance and market positioning 18:31 - Front month futures, commodity curves and trend following signals 25:03 - CFM's Seven Degrees of Market Structure 36:49 - Why single stock futures and options are changing equity markets 39:56 - The decline of short term trend following explained 47:50 - Thematic investing and where equity risk really comes from 55:06 - Narrative momentum and how news drives market behaviour 01:02:45 - Building a diversified equity trend strategy 01:05:04 - Final thoughts on the future of systematic investing Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM105: The Billion-Barrel Shock Has Not Arrived Yet ft. Adam Rozencwajg | 15 juil. 2026 | 01:15:32 | |
More than a billion barrels of expected oil supply have been removed from the market. Yet prices suggest the danger has passed. Adam Rozencwajg joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explain why that conclusion may be dangerously premature. The missing barrels have not disappeared from the equation. Their impact is still moving through tankers, refineries and inventories, hidden by reporting delays and China’s strategic response. From the limits of petroleum reserves to falling stockpiles, gold’s correction and the energy required to power AI, this episode examines a market caught between what prices are saying and what the physical system may soon reveal. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why commodity super cycles are driven by capital investment, not geopolitics 09:30 - The impact of Middle East supply disruptions on global oil markets 15:38 - Oil inventories, strategic reserves and why the data may be misleading 21:57 - China's energy strategy and its growing influence on global markets 31:23 - Why energy markets have not reacted as many investors expected 37:13 - China's long term energy transition and global demand implications 43:59 - Why oil prices have fallen despite tightening fundamentals 48:12 - The outlook for oil markets over the coming months 58:25 - Gold, investor positioning and what could trigger the next rally 01:02:59 - Strategic government investment and the future of critical commodities 01:09:22 - Why energy remains the biggest opportunity in the AI boom 01:11:53 - Final thoughts on where commodity markets go from here Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI408: Has Trend Following Changed Forever? ft. Alan Dunne | 11 juil. 2026 | 01:03:48 | |
Markets continue to evolve, and so do the strategies designed to navigate them. Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore why changes in market structure may have permanently altered short term trend following, and what that means for systematic investors. They discuss a fascinating new research paper on market microstructure, the changing role of liquidity, the rise of high frequency trading and why faster no longer necessarily means better. Along the way they examine the Federal Reserve's evolving communication strategy, the outlook for commodities, and why regime change continues to create both risks and opportunities for trend followers. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Summer reading, Jeremy Grantham and lessons from early quantitative investing 05:22 - Shrinking retail products, smaller futures contracts and the rise of retail trading 12:18 - First half performance review for CTAs and trend followers 15:36 - Commodity markets, Middle East tensions and the AI driven demand story 20:09 - Kevin Warsh, Fed communication and a new era for monetary policy 30:34 - Why regime change strengthens the case for trend following 38:34 - The research behind the decline of short term trend following 46:44 - Tick size, liquidity and what changed in market microstructure 49:43 - Alternative explanations for why fast trend has struggled 55:35 - Execution, market participants and the future of systematic trading 01:00:45 - Final thoughts on the next evolution of trend following Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM104: How the Dollar Quietly Took Over the World ft. Brendan Greeley | 08 juil. 2026 | 00:55:51 | |
The US dollar has become so familiar that most investors rarely stop to ask how it became the world's dominant currency or why that dominance has endured. Brendan Greeley joins Alan Dunne to trace the dollar's remarkable journey from a silver coin in sixteenth century Europe to the foundation of modern global finance. Along the way they explore the hidden mechanics of money creation, the evolution of offshore dollars, the Federal Reserve's expanding role, and why the institutions supporting the dollar may matter far more than politics. It is a conversation that challenges many of the assumptions investors hold about money, banking and monetary policy. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Brendan on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why the Fed's balance sheet deserves far more scrutiny 00:57 - Brendan Greeley's journey from journalism to monetary history 06:36 - How studying financial history changed his view of economics 11:38 - The hidden difference between big money and small money 17:43 - How the dollar existed before the United States 26:40 - Why the dollar became the world's reserve currency 29:36 - The birth of the Eurodollar market and offshore money creation 34:53 - What really supports the dollar's global dominance 40:09 - Could global finance split into competing currency blocs 44:21 - Has the Federal Reserve become too powerful 50:01 - Why QE, the Fed's balance sheet and future reforms matter 52:53 - Brendan Greeley's essential book recommendation Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI407: Why America Is Rewriting the Rules of Capitalism ft. Cem Karsan | 04 juil. 2026 | 01:01:49 | |
Markets may be entering one of the most important regime shifts in decades. Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to argue that the United States is moving away from traditional free market capitalism towards a far more strategic model where government, markets and technology become increasingly intertwined. They discuss why positioning continues to dominate market behaviour, the growing role of sovereign investment, the future of AI driven capital spending, and why the next major turning point may arrive after the US midterm elections. It is a conversation that challenges conventional market thinking and explores how politics, policy and capital are becoming inseparable. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - America at 250 and why major turning points often arrive after two and a half centuries 03:43 - Why positioning matters more than headlines in today's markets 07:53 - Soft US jobs data and the disconnect between markets and the economy 09:15 - June performance review for trend followers and CTAs 15:14 - Why America may be adopting a more strategic form of capitalism 19:14 - The case for a US sovereign wealth fund and reshaping the financial system 30:31 - Why the US dollar remains America's greatest strategic advantage 37:52 - AI investment, capital spending and why this cycle may be different 45:46 - Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the changing relationship between the Fed and Treasury 50:03 - The Summer of George and why market positioning dominates the summer months 52:22 - Why the US midterm elections could become the next major market catalyst 57:59 - Looking ahead to the second half of 2026 Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM103: Why Optimism Could Be the Most Contrarian Trade ft. Pippa Malmgren | 01 juil. 2026 | 01:19:43 | |
While much of the world is focused on geopolitical conflict, inflation and rising global tensions, Pippa Malmgren argues that a very different future may already be taking shape. Joining Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan, she explores how artificial intelligence, advanced energy, shifting diplomacy and technological innovation could reshape the global economy and even reduce the risk of war. From the future of the US dollar and China to nuclear energy, robotics and non human intelligence, this conversation challenges conventional thinking and offers an unusually optimistic perspective on one of the most consequential periods in modern history. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Pippa on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why Pippa believes the future is far more optimistic than most expect 01:05 - Reuniting after four years and revisiting major geopolitical themes 03:11 - Digital finance, transparency and the changing role of the US Treasury 06:40 - Ukraine, foreign policy and the debate over hidden funding networks 12:01 - Why Pippa believes the world is moving toward a superpower rapprochement 22:17 - The US dollar, China and competing visions of global leadership 30:49 - Lessons from history, diplomacy and the search for lasting peace 39:38 - Nuclear energy, AI and the race toward technological abundance 45:48 - Populism, inequality and whether AI will widen or close the wealth gap 55:32 - How societies can prepare for an AI driven future 58:10 - Greenland, the Arctic and the strategic battle for space infrastructure 01:04:20 - Pippa's father, diplomacy and the lessons that shaped her worldview 01:09:28 - Non human intelligence, AI and the profound questions facing humanity Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI406: Why Uncertainty Is a Trend Follower’s Best Friend ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 27 juin 2026 | 01:08:04 | |
Markets rarely move in straight lines, but periods of uncertainty often create the biggest opportunities for systematic investors. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine why geopolitical shocks, changing Federal Reserve leadership and shifting market regimes continue to shape trend following performance. They explore why only a handful of markets often drive returns, how diversification really works when correlations suddenly rise, and why managed futures have historically stood apart during periods of elevated volatility. Along the way, they discuss the future of monetary policy, economic data, AI driven productivity and what investors should watch as the second half of the year unfolds. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Boston's World Cup beer shortage and remembering Alan Greenspan 05:14 - Greenspan's legacy, interest rates and lessons from 1994 10:45 - Trend following performance and the markets driving returns 14:14 - Why diversification matters and how many markets are enough 20:47 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year 23:10 - What defines a market regime change 27:49 - The new Fed Chair and five major policy priorities 39:12 - Why monetary policy changes matter for trend followers 48:28 - Research into hedge fund strategies and risk regimes 56:06 - Why managed futures stand out during periods of market stress 01:02:30 - Portfolio construction and the role of managed futures in uncertain markets Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| IL50: Why Central Banks Are Losing Control of Inflation ft. Manoj Pradhan | 24 juin 2026 | 01:01:41 | |
Manoj Pradhan returns to Top Traders Unplugged to explain why the forces that kept inflation and interest rates low for decades are now reversing. Drawing on themes from The Great Demographic Reversal and his new book The Unanchored Central Banker, he argues that aging populations, labor shortages, rising fiscal deficits, and the changing role of central banks are creating a very different macroeconomic landscape. The conversation explores why demographics matter more than many models assume, whether AI can offset labor shortages, and why central banks may increasingly be forced to choose between controlling inflation and maintaining fiscal stability. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Manoj on LinkedIn and Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why demographics matter for inflation and central banks 03:05 - The demographic sweet spot that lowered inflation and rates 06:28 - Why labor supply is now reversing 12:15 - Global birth rates and the replacement rate problem 17:03 - The fiscal blind spot in conventional economic models 20:31 - Housing, urbanization, and real interest rates 27:03 - Can AI offset labor shortages? 37:24 - Policy ideas to increase labor supply and manage aging 45:40 - Why central banks may become “unanchored” 50:40 - The tension between inflation control and debt stability 54:49 - Could high rates trigger a crisis and force policy reversal? 58:28 - Final thoughts on demographics, debt, and the future of inflation Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI405: Why Most Trend Following Improvements Should Fail ft. Rob Carver | 20 juin 2026 | 01:12:10 | |
Trend following investors are constantly searching for ways to improve performance, but not every improvement survives contact with reality. Rob Carver joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore whether investors should chase the strongest trends, how different asset classes contribute to returns across market cycles, and why overfitting remains one of the biggest dangers in systematic investing. They also discuss the rise of AI generated trading strategies, the debate around perpetual futures, the changing role of economic data, and what diversification really means when markets become driven by a handful of dominant forces. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and summer optimism in the UK 02:10 - Middle East developments, SpaceX and the new Fed Chair 06:13 - Concerns about economic data and market transparency 10:38 - Trend following performance and current market positioning 14:39 - How Rob evaluates strategies and portfolio construction 19:57 - The factor zoo and true sources of return 22:37 - What trend following adds beyond traditional risk premia 29:54 - The rise of perpetual futures and exchange concerns 42:35 - Quantica research on trend performance across asset classes 55:01 - Why commodities have become a dominant source of trend returns 56:06 - AI generated trading strategies and the risk of overfitting 01:05:48 - Drawdowns, diversification and lessons from recent research Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM102: China Built a Trap. Germany Set It. America Fell In. Europe Is Next ft. Michael Pettis | 17 juin 2026 | 01:23:19 | |
Michael Pettis joins Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation on trade imbalances, globalization and the future of the world economy. Drawing on decades of research into China, Europe and financial history, Pettis argues that persistent trade surpluses are ultimately rooted in domestic income imbalances rather than national competitiveness. The discussion explores why China struggles to rebalance, why Europe may face its biggest challenge yet, and how US reindustrialization could reshape global trade. From Bretton Woods to modern tariffs, this episode offers a provocative framework for understanding the forces driving the next phase of the global economy. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Michael on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Michael Pettis warns that the real trade reckoning may still lie ahead 01:07 - Introduction to Michael Pettis and his background in finance and economics 06:34 - Why trade imbalances are ultimately driven by income imbalances 09:59 - Germany’s Hartz reforms and the roots of European imbalances 17:22 - Competitiveness versus productivity and the hidden costs of wage suppression 27:48 - China’s growth model and why rebalancing has proved so difficult 35:54 - Who will absorb China’s trade surplus if the US closes its deficit? 40:24 - Can the United States successfully reindustrialize? 45:31 - Why Europe may eventually turn toward protectionism 52:17 - The US deficit, global capital flows and the burden of dollar dominance 01:01:50 - Why the renminbi is unlikely to replace the dollar 01:10:45 - Historical trade imbalances and how painful adjustments unfold 01:16:21 - What Japan’s experience reveals about China’s future 01:21:02 - Final reflections on debt, globalization and economic adjustment Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI404: When Trend Following Meets Equities ft. Eric Crittenden & Andrew Beer | 13 juin 2026 | 01:07:52 | |
Trend following has long promised and delivered diversification, crisis protection and uncorrelated returns. Yet many investors still struggle to hold it through difficult periods. In this conversation, Andrew Beer and Eric Crittenden explore why that gap exists and how combining trend following with equities may create a more durable portfolio. Together with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen discuss the rise of managed futures ETFs, the debate between simplicity and complexity in systematic investing, and why algorithmic discipline allows investors to act when intuition fails. The episode also examines portfolio construction, product design and the evolving role of alternatives in a changing investment landscape. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Follow Eric on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series and the week's guests 02:19 - Eric reflects on recent market trends and challenging periods for trend followers 03:15 - Andrew shares optimism about AI, innovation and technological progress 06:25 - Elon Musk, SpaceX and the future of technological disruption 09:22 - The evolution of managed futures ETFs and the growing demand for alternative strategies 15:58 - How ETF liquidity works and why portfolio construction matters 19:40 - The case for combining equities and trend following into one portfolio 21:37 - Eric explains the philosophy behind his multi asset approach 31:15 - Product design, allocator behavior and why diversification often fails in practice 40:44 - Simplicity versus complexity in systematic investing 46:58 - Why elegant models often fail in real world markets 57:05 - Sharpe ratios, diversification and combining multiple return streams 59:52 - Andrew introduces the idea of Contrarian Tactical Alpha 01:02:55 - Eric on algorithmic discipline and why trends are uncomfortable to follow 01:05:26 - Final thoughts on trend following, risk management and portfolio construction Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| UGO12: Why the Next Financial Crisis Could Change America Forever ft. Danielle DiMartino Booth | 10 juin 2026 | 00:53:56 | |
As Kevin Warsh prepares to take the reins at the Federal Reserve, a deeper question emerges: has the Fed reached the limits of what monetary policy can achieve? Cem Karsan sits down with Danielle DiMartino Booth to explore the growing tensions between inflation, debt, financialization, and political pressure. From the future of quantitative easing and Treasury market risks to the rise of populism and the long term consequences of decades of intervention, this conversation examines whether the United States is approaching a turning point that could redefine the relationship between markets, government, and the Federal Reserve. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Danielle on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and why Kevin Warsh's arrival at the Fed matters 02:25 - Warsh steps into a divided Federal Reserve 05:13 - The debt problem and the pressures facing policymakers 07:52 - Can Warsh avoid another era of quantitative easing? 10:00 - Interest rates, inflation, and the limits of Fed policy 17:53 - Revisiting Arthur Burns and the lessons of the 1970s 23:02 - Treasury buybacks, debt monetization, and market stability 29:27 - Populism, demographics, and the future inflation outlook 37:34 - Is the Fed’s mandate shifting toward managing government debt? 43:06 - Sovereign wealth funds and the possibility of equity market intervention 45:56 - Would merging Treasury and the Fed end central bank independence? 49:59 - Has the Federal Reserve broken the natural business cycle? 51:22 - Final thoughts on crisis, reform, and America’s economic future Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI403: Trend Following in an Era of Geopolitical Risk ft. Marat Molyboga & Katy Kaminski | 06 juin 2026 | 01:24:02 | |
Geopolitical tensions, inflation shocks, and shifting market regimes are reshaping the investment landscape. Marat Molyboga and Katy Kaminski joins us to explore why managed futures have historically performed well during periods of geopolitical stress and why investors often misunderstand the role of crisis alpha in a portfolio. The conversation examines inflation driven market disruptions, diversification, short term versus long term trend following, portfolio construction, and the behavioural mistakes that prevent many investors from capturing the full benefits of trend strategies. It is a wide ranging discussion about risk, uncertainty, and adapting to a changing world. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and welcome to the Systematic Investor series 01:13 - Marat Molyboga's background and Efficient Capital's investment philosophy 05:29 - World Cup excitement, soccer stories, and thoughts beyond markets 11:36 - AI, market concentration, energy trends, and major macro headlines 15:16 - Trend following performance review and key market drivers in 2026 23:36 - Understanding crisis alpha and the role of managed futures in portfolios 33:24 - Diversification, portfolio construction, and avoiding investor mistakes 44:08 - Geopolitical risk research and its connection to inflation 53:01 - Why managed futures have historically benefited from geopolitical uncertainty 59:01 - Commodities, inflation shocks, and the mechanics behind crisis alpha 01:06:47 - The case for short term trend following and execution challenges 01:20:31 - Final thoughts and lessons for navigating an uncertain investment landscape Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| ALO35: Why Macro Investing Is Becoming More Systematic ft. George Patterson | 03 juin 2026 | 01:01:42 | |
How do quantitative investors adapt when markets, technology and macro regimes are constantly changing? In this conversation, Alan Dunne sits down with George Patterson, CIO of PGIM Quant Solutions, to explore the evolution of systematic investing from the 1990s to today’s AI driven landscape. They discuss regime detection, inflation risk, portfolio construction, machine learning, private markets, volatility overlays and the growing role of language models in investment research. George also shares insights from decades in quant investing, including lessons from Covid, the importance of model discipline and why communication skills matter as much as technical expertise. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow George on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to George Patterson and his journey from physics to quantitative investing 03:12 - Why multidisciplinary teams matter in modern quant investing 04:13 - Inside PGIM Quant Solutions and the evolution of multi asset investing 06:03 - How markets and macro investing have changed since the 1990s 09:12 - The future of the 60/40 portfolio and institutional portfolio construction 12:11 - Private markets, liquidity challenges and institutional investor concerns 13:25 - Inflation, commodities and building modern inflation hedges 19:33 - Detecting macro regimes using quantitative models 23:26 - The hardest part of systematic investing: trusting the process 27:00 - Covid, model failures and managing regime shifts in real time 30:07 - Portfolio protection, options strategies and volatility overlays 32:01 - How AI and large language models are transforming quantitative research 40:02 - Fiscal risks, inflation concerns and the changing rate environment 44:26 - Simplicity versus complexity in quantitative model design 48:05 - Why markets evolve faster today and how models must adapt 51:08 - Retail investors, meme stocks and market distortions 53:33 - Emerging markets and where long term opportunities may exist 55:08 - The future of quant investing and the limits of AI hype 57:10 - George Patterson’s career advice for aspiring quants Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI402: Why Markets Can’t Stop Trending ft. Richard Brennan | 30 mai 2026 | 01:30:50 | |
What happens when markets stop behaving like machines and start behaving like living systems? In this episode, Richard Brennan joins Niels to explore passive investing, complex adaptive systems, volatility suppression, and the hidden forces reshaping modern market structure. From structured products and reflexive flows to demographics, trend following, and the fragile illusion of equilibrium, this conversation asks whether markets are becoming more unstable precisely because investors believe they have become safer. A thoughtful and layered discussion about why price discovery may be weakening, why trends persist, and why systematic strategies may be more relevant in a world increasingly shaped by feedback loops. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the episode and overview of today’s discussion 02:22 - Richard Brennan breaks down passive investing through the lens of complex adaptive systems 06:51 - What “complex adaptive systems” actually means in markets 14:53 - Why passive investing changes market structure without individual investors realizing it 24:06 - Niels discusses structured products, volatility suppression, and market fragility 29:23 - How demographic shifts could eventually reshape passive investing trends 35:37 - Trend following performance update and the TTU Trend Barometer 38:48 - Listener question on variance, volatility, and correlation in systematic trend following 42:04 - The “murmuration” analogy and why markets behave like flocks instead of machines 48:31 - Why equilibrium theory survives despite failing to explain real markets 51:17 - The endogenous engine of markets and the mechanics of reflexivity 57:47 - How trend followers align with the architecture of modern markets 01:03:12 - Why passive investing weakens balancing forces and strengthens trends 01:13:43 - The statistical evidence showing markets structurally trend over time 01:21:18 - Why trend following may become even more effective in the future Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| IL49: The Space Economy Is No Longer Science Fiction ft. Rainer Zitelmann | 27 mai 2026 | 01:01:19 | |
On this episode we are joined by Dr. Rainer Zitelmann, to discuss his book New Space Capitalism: The Entrepreneurial Path to the Stars. We discuss why government-funded space programs were initially successful but also why the future of space exploration, and the space economy, will be driven by private companies. Dr. Zitelmann explains what he believes to be the key driver of unlocking the economic potential of space and why it’s conceivable that ventures such as space tourism, orbital data centers and asteroid mining might be listed on the stock exchange. This is a conversation for everyone who wants an early look at an industry that is about to “take off”! ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Rainer on Instagram and read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why incentives may explain why humans stopped going to the moon 01:07 - Kevin introduces Dr. Rainer Zitelmann and New Space Capitalism 02:47 - How childhood fascination with space led to a lifelong interest 05:45 - Why Apollo succeeded and why it may have been a historical exception 09:22 - The Space Shuttle program and the limits of government-led innovation 13:50 - How SpaceX changed the economics of launch services 20:32 - Why private property rights may be essential for space capitalism 24:36 - The legal uncertainty around owning land and resources in space 32:23 - How Mars settlement could be financed through private ownership 42:49 - Asteroid mining, space resources and the business case beyond Earth 48:06 - Space tourism and why early innovation often starts with the wealthy 53:51 - How investors might think about the emerging space economy 58:27 - Why space capitalism is no longer science fiction Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI401: Why Trend Following Wins in Chaos ft. Nick Baltas | 23 mai 2026 | 01:01:16 | |
The world of systematic investing is evolving fast, and in this episode Nick Baltas joins Moritz Seibert to explore the explosive growth of QIS strategies, the current state of trend following in 2026, and the challenges facing systematic investors in today’s macro environment. They discuss crowding risks in quantitative strategies, the recent collapse in commodity curve carry, and why some trend managers continue to outperform through broader diversification and alternative markets. The conversation also dives into execution alpha, AI driven research workflows, inflation risks, and the ongoing institutional demand for systematic macro strategies. A sharp and highly practical discussion for anyone interested in trend following, QIS, commodities, and quantitative investing. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Follow Moritz on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Introduction to the episode 01:17 – Nick Baltas on AI, research, and market volatility 03:02 – Trend following performance update for May 2026 06:25 – What investors are focusing on in QIS strategies 10:14 – Is there cyclicality in investor demand for QIS? 15:25 – Wall Street Journal article on the growth of QIS 17:15 – Crowding risks and overlapping systematic strategies 24:15 – Can hedge funds front run QIS trades? 27:46 – Commodity curve carry explained 30:48 – Largest drawdown ever for commodity curve strategies 33:59 – Is now the right time to buy commodity curve carry? 37:20 – Why some curve carry implementations still made money 40:01 – Trend following performance across alternative vs traditional markets 44:21 – Why broader trend portfolios may improve Sharpe ratios 47:22 – Listener question: Is there alpha in execution? 49:53 – How CTAs think about execution and slippage 53:50 – Why trend following on single name equities is rare 57:58 – Chesapeake’s single name trend approach 59:04 – Final thoughts and wrap up Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM101: When Passive Breaks the Market ft. Hari Krishnan & Cem Karsan | 20 mai 2026 | 01:13:52 | |
Hari Krishnan joins Niels and Cem for a deep exploration of what happens when markets become dominated by flows rather than fundamentals. Drawing on his new paper with Mike Green and Stefan Sturm, Hari explains why rising passive ownership may weaken price discovery, amplify concentration in mega-cap stocks and create conditions for reflexive instability. The conversation expands far beyond indexing, touching on volatility targeting, leverage, dispersion, inflation, government intervention and the growing dependence of the global economy on rising asset prices. Along the way, Cem and Hari debate whether policymakers can continue stabilizing an increasingly fragile system, what could trigger a structural break, and how investors should think about positioning in a world where flows may matter more than fundamentals. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Hari on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Hari warns about a fragile financial system dependent on a handful of decision-makers 01:06 - Niels introduces Hari’s new paper with Mike Green and Stefan Sturm 03:00 - Why passive investing may weaken the link between fundamentals and prices 08:40 - The key assumptions behind the model 12:49 - How passive adoption accelerated structural market changes 15:11 - Cem explains why markets may now drive the economy rather than reflect it 23:38 - Can policymakers control a complex financial system? 27:03 - How passive flows amplify mega-cap concentration 31:22 - The changing role of dispersion, volatility and positioning 41:04 - What the model suggests about instability at high passive ownership levels 46:21 - Why 2022 may have been a warning sign 51:55 - Inflation, government intervention and the limits of market control 55:33 - What could trigger a systemic break? 01:07:28 - Political and demographic pressures beneath the system 01:10:43 - Hari’s portfolio implications: stay long, hedge smartly and own inflation sensitivity Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI400: When Crisis Alpha Hides in Plain Sight ft. Yoav Git & Rob Croce | 16 mai 2026 | 01:07:04 | |
This week, we are joined by Yoav Git and Rob Croce from Fidelity Investments for a deep dive into trend following, portfolio construction and execution in modern markets. The conversation explores why crisis alpha may come more from beta timing than market selection, the logic behind betting against beta, and how quantitative investors think about diversification, carry and relative value strategies. Along the way, the trio discuss Japan’s rising bond yields, momentum investing, execution risk during crises and even how ChatGPT helped solve a 60-year-old mathematical problem. This is a technical but highly practical discussion about how systematic investors build robust portfolios in a changing macro environment. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on LinkedIn and read his paper. Follow Yoav on Linkedin. Episode TimeStamps: 01:57 - Rob Croce’s path from economics to managed futures and trend following 04:38 - Yoav on AI-assisted mathematics and solving a 60-year-old problem 06:14 - Rob on out-of-sample testing and learning from market structure 11:42 - Rising Japanese bond yields and the global bond market backdrop 12:39 - Momentum investing and the growing popularity of trend-based strategies 17:04 - Current trend following environment across equities, bonds and commodities 19:13 - “Betting Against Beta” and why low-beta portfolios may outperform 25:43 - The role of leverage aversion and diversification in factor investing 34:26 - Rob Croce’s paper: where crisis alpha really comes from 40:31 - Why beta timing drives much of trend following’s defensive behavior 47:46 - Can carry improve trend following without sacrificing crisis alpha? 51:51 - Execution algorithms, risk reduction and trading during crises 57:46 - Why correlation spikes matter for portfolio execution and liquidity 01:04:05 - Final thoughts and where to find Rob Croce’s research Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM100: Central Banks in the Dark: Inflation, AI, and the Limits of Control ft. David Beckworth | 13 mai 2026 | 01:04:28 | |
Today, we are joined by David Beckworth, Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center and host of Macro Musings, for a deep dive into the biggest macro questions shaping markets right now. David explains why central banks struggle to respond to supply shocks, why inflation expectations are more fragile than policymakers admit, and how frameworks like nominal GDP targeting could offer a more robust path forward. We explore the collision between geopolitical shocks and AI-driven productivity, the hidden consequences of quantitative easing, and the growing tension between monetary policy and fiscal sustainability. From stablecoins and the future of the dollar to the Fed’s balance sheet and financial system plumbing, this episode unpacks the forces quietly reshaping the global economy, and why policymakers may be less in control than we think. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow David on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Stablecoins, financial stability, and uncertain impact 01:00 - David Beckworth’s path into macroeconomics 05:43 - How central banks should respond to supply shocks 08:56 - Why policymakers struggle to separate supply vs demand 11:58 - Inflation expectations and post-COVID sensitivity 14:46 - Are central banks over-reliant on flawed inflation models? 18:49 - AI as a positive supply shock: hype vs reality 22:00 - Productivity booms, deflation, and policy challenges 25:11 - Kevin Warsh, AI optimism, and the Fed’s future direction 29:33 - QE, QT, and the long-term impact on financial markets 33:28 - The “ratchet effect” and why the Fed can’t shrink easily 37:59 - Liquidity: abundant or an illusion? 41:38 - Are markets addicted to central bank liquidity? 44:21 - Fiscal dominance and the long-term risk to central banks 53:54 - Stablecoins, dollar dominance, and global demand 59:10 - Private credit and the evolving financial system 01:00:49 - Books, learning, and building a career in macro Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI399: AI, Inflation and the Portfolio That Refuses to Sit Still ft. Alan Dunne | 09 mai 2026 | 01:11:50 | |
Today, Niels and Alan examine a market shaped by two forces pulling in opposite directions: AI’s promise of higher productivity and the inflationary pressure of geopolitical stress. From distorted economic data and shifting rate expectations to energy shocks, fiscal pressure, and the changing role of trend following, this conversation explores why traditional portfolios may need more flexibility than they once did. Alan also shares a world exclusive on the launch of his Regime Adaptive Fund, built around the idea that portfolios should not simply sit through changing regimes, but adjust as markets, inflation, and correlations evolve. A timely discussion on risk, resilience, and the limits of old playbooks. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged 00:36 - Niels welcomes Alan Dunne back to the Systematic Investor Series 01:31 - How AI is distorting economic data, earnings, and construction trends 06:13 - UK council elections, Reform UK, and pressure on political assumptions 09:00 - Trend following update and the shift in fixed income exposure 13:35 - Why recent macro shocks have created a favorable backdrop for trend followers 16:45 - AI, Iran, and the collision between positive and negative supply shocks 26:22 - Graham Capital’s research on macro performance across monetary regimes 37:09 - AQR’s view on multi-asset portfolios, trend following, and inflation risk 46:07 - Why diversification still comes with discomfort 51:26 - Should trend following trade equities when stacked on equities? 56:38 - Alan reveals the launch of the Regime Adaptive Fund 01:05:42 - Equity market strength, hidden risks, and portfolio construction today 01:08:46 - Closing thoughts and upcoming episode preview Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| OI22: Inside the Next Generation Market Wizards ft. Jack Schwager & George Coyle | 07 mai 2026 | 00:45:12 | |
What does it take to become a true Market Wizard, and why do so many of them fail before they find their edge? In this special episode, Moritz Seibert sits down with Jack Schwager and George Coyle to discuss The Next Generation of Market Wizards, the sixth book in the series that began in 1989. Together, they explore how extraordinary traders are found, how their records are verified in an age of AI, and why many of the most remarkable returns still come from discretionary traders. From blown-up accounts and shorting small caps to the psychological cost of sitting in front of screens for 14 hours a day, this is a rare look at the craft, pressure, and persistence behind exceptional trading. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Why single trading systems rarely produce “wizard-level” returns 01:17 – Introduction to the new Market Wizards book 02:37 – George Coyle’s background and path to co-authoring 05:00 – What makes this new book different (focus on solo traders) 06:00 – How top traders are discovered 10:46 – Verifying extreme performance claims in the AI era 13:26 – The most surprising trait: repeated early failure 15:54 – New-generation strategies that break “classic” rules 19:02 – Timeless trading principles that still hold 21:16 – Why most market wizards are discretionary, not systematic 24:41 – Why individual quant systems rarely achieve extreme returns 26:53 – Listener question: systematic vs discretionary trading 30:17 – Personality traits of elite traders 32:21 – The hidden “cost” of being a top trader 35:50 – Can anyone become a market wizard? 38:47 – What’s changed in trading edges over time 41:53 – Preview of the next book (hedge fund traders) Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| GM99: Gold, Trust, and the Return of Real Assets ft. Philip Diehl | 06 mai 2026 | 01:05:36 | |
Today, we are joined by Philip Diehl, former Director of the United States Mint and President of U.S. Money Reserve, for a timely conversation about gold’s renewed role in a world shaped by inflation, geopolitical stress, central bank demand, and uncertainty around fiat currencies. Philip explains why gold’s recent rise is not simply a speculative move, but part of a broader shift in how governments, institutions, and individuals think about wealth preservation. From central bank buying and Chinese retail demand to Bitcoin, ETFs, physical coins, and the limits of the U.S. dollar system, this episode explores why gold is once again moving from the margins of portfolios toward the center of the macro conversation. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Philip on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why Philip Diehl believes investors should “buy the dip” in gold 01:14 - Philip’s career from public policy to the U.S. Mint 06:08 - What U.S. Money Reserve does and why physical gold matters 08:08 - The forces behind gold’s powerful multi-year rally 13:08 - Central bank buying, dollar risk, and portfolio diversification 19:05 - Why some central banks may sell gold during stress 22:18 - Chinese demand, cultural memory, and the role of retail buyers 28:32 - Why Philip does not see Bitcoin as “digital gold” 32:44 - Physical gold versus ETFs and the question of ownership 37:10 - How retail investors behave during gold bull markets 41:16 - Portfolio allocation and the changing case for gold 45:52 - Why Philip expects gold to outperform equities over the next decade 48:15 - Why today’s gold market is not a repeat of the 1970s 52:21 - Gold miners, production limits, and rising extraction costs 55:58 - Fort Knox, revaluing U.S. gold reserves, and political reality 59:24 - Lessons from Philip’s career and how to learn more about gold Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI398: Navigating a VUCA World ft. Mark Rzepczynski | 02 mai 2026 | 01:07:49 | |
Today, we explore what it means to invest in a world defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). We discuss why geopolitical shocks... especially supply-driven ones... are creating persistent trends across markets, and why trend-following strategies are thriving despite strong equity performance. The conversation dives into how investors process information (or fail to), the limits of central bank responses to supply shocks, and why markets may not be fully pricing in current risks. Mark also shares new research comparing hedge fund strategies under different volatility regimes, highlighting why managed futures stand out as a robust diversifier. The episode closes with a forward-looking discussion on AI, replication strategies, and the growing role of narrative versus data in investment decision-making. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Introduction: Preparing for the unpredictable 00:36 – Entering a VUCA world: volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity 02:00 – “Uncharted territory” in markets and beyond 05:30 – Central banks, leadership changes, and policy uncertainty 07:16 – Oil markets, OPEC shifts, and geopolitical tension 10:16 – Trend-following performance update and market context 14:06 – Reverse engineering CTAs and the role of AI 18:42 – Replication strategies vs. true alpha 22:41 – Trend-following performance metrics (April update) 24:43 – Supply shocks and why they’re harder to manage 28:53 – Are markets underreacting to geopolitical risk? 31:53 – Information overload, ambiguity, and trend persistence 34:54 – Why more data doesn’t mean better decisions 38:34 – Government intervention vs. market-driven trends 40:30 – Pandemic policies and unintended inflation 43:00 – New research: hedge fund strategies vs. volatility regimes 47:16 – Why managed futures stand out as diversifiers 51:11 – Narrative vs. data in investment decisions 55:36 – AI, sentiment analysis, and the future of models 58:46 – Simplicity vs. complexity in strategy design 01:00:49 – Bundling vs. unbundling investment strategies 01:03:18 – Momentum crashes and new research directions Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| IL48: The Misunderstood Economics of Africa ft. Joe Studwell | 29 avr. 2026 | 01:00:50 | |
In this episode Kevin Coldiron is joined by bestselling author Joe Studwell who speaks about his new book How Africa Works: Success and Failure on the World’s Last Development Frontier. We discuss why many of our perceptions about Africa are wrong - why one big problem has been too few people, not too many and why the continent isn’t as resource-rich as we think. Joe talks us through some surprising success stories - like Rwanda’s emulation of Singapore and Botswana’s success in avoiding “the resource curse”. This is the time to begin researching and understanding the opportunities in a continent that has more land mass than the US, China and India combined and will eventually be home to the majority of the world’s young people. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Joe on LinkedIn and read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:01 - Introduction to the episode and guest 02:04 - Why the book was written and initial motivation 05:50 - Outsider perspective and reactions in Africa 07:22 - The core idea: population density and development 08:22 - Why Africa’s growth lagged historically 14:23 - Population growth and changing economic potential 15:39 - Colonialism in Africa vs Asia 20:14 - Land, agriculture, and development differences 23:55 - Rise of private sector and food production 25:57 - Resources and the limits of extractive growth 29:56 - Botswana and managing resource wealth 36:21 - Rwanda’s development model and governance 44:41 - Ethnic dynamics and future stability 50:24 - China’s role and manufacturing potential 56:04 - Investing in Africa and long term outlook Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI397: The Market Isn’t Free Anymore, It’s Being Managed ft. Cem Karsan | 25 avr. 2026 | 01:11:47 | |
Today Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen examine a market environment where politics, geopolitics and liquidity are becoming harder to separate. Cem argues that recent market strength is not just a reaction to better news, but part of a broader effort to manage risk, support collateral values and prepare for deeper geopolitical stress. From rising military spending and the Strait of Hormuz to treasury demand, QIS growth, AI and the next inflation wave, this conversation is about what happens when markets stop being passive observers and become tools in a larger strategic contest. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00:01 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged 00:00:35 - Niels and Cem reconnect and set the stage 00:01:51 - Truth, narratives and the blurring of reality 00:04:15 - Fed independence, politics and credibility 00:07:45 - The rise of QIS and demand for alternative strategies 00:12:52 - Trend following update and current market performance 00:15:23 - Framing the disconnect between markets and reality 00:20:09 - Liquidity, market rallies and strategic positioning 00:25:08 - Are markets being actively managed 00:34:51 - The real geopolitical battle and the role of China 00:40:32 - What investors may be underpricing 00:52:55 - Why markets can rise despite growing risks 00:55:56 - Treasury demand, intervention and future policy paths 00:58:04 - Inflation, debt monetization and long term outlook 01:02:16 - AI, deflation and the political response Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| UGO11: Fiscal Dominance, Dollar Power, and the Politics Driving Markets ft. Lyn Alden | 22 avr. 2026 | 01:11:04 | |
Today, Cem Karsan sits down with Lyn Alden for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces quietly shaping markets beneath the surface. From the persistence of fiscal dominance to the role of populism, demographics, and global power shifts, they explore why the current macro regime may be far harder to reverse than many expect. The discussion moves beyond economics into politics, examining how inequality, globalization, and technological change feed into inflation dynamics and policy decisions. They also tackle the future of the dollar, the risks to its global dominance, and the complex role of crypto in a system defined by power, incentives, and control. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction to the episode and trading floor setting 00:01:28 - Cem introduces Lyn Alden and frames the macro discussion 00:02:23 - Lyn outlines her framework and the rise of fiscal dominance 00:05:31 - Multipolar world and shifting reserve currency dynamics 00:06:20 - Why debt cycles lead to persistent fiscal expansion 00:13:42 - Debate on debt, modern monetary theory, and dollar privilege 00:18:29 - Populism, inequality, and political drivers of inflation 00:24:25 - Trade deficits, globalization, and domestic consequences 00:30:20 - What happens if dollar dominance weakens 00:34:16 - Comparing today to the 1940s vs the 1970s 00:41:47 - Democracy, authoritarian drift, and rule of law 00:44:17 - AI, productivity, and inflationary policy responses 00:56:08 - Lyn’s views on Bitcoin, stablecoins, and crypto markets 01:03:34 - Debate on the long term sustainability of crypto 01:09:42 - Closing thoughts on power, money, and the macro outlook Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||
| SI396: Markets Look Calm… But Are They? ft. Rob Carver | 18 avr. 2026 | 01:20:57 | |
Today, Rob Carver joins us to reflect on a market environment that appears calm on the surface but feels increasingly fragile underneath. From oil market distortions and muted reactions to geopolitical risk to the steady resilience of equities, the conversation questions whether price action is telling the full story. Rob shares insights from his own performance, including why slower trend signals have recently dominated and why he is running lower risk despite positive returns. The discussion moves into portfolio construction, return stacking, and the growing role of ETFs, alongside a candid look at where complexity adds value in systematic investing and where it does not. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro & current market backdrop 04:30 - Oil market dislocations and futures vs physical pricing 10:00 - Equities hitting highs despite geopolitical tension 13:30 - ETFs, fees, and structural shifts in investment vehicles 17:00 - Trend following performance update and April results 20:30 - Rob’s year-to-date and 12-month performance breakdown 25:00 - Why slow trend signals outperformed 27:30 - How to evaluate large CTA managers 31:00 - Where PhDs add value in systematic investing 43:00 - Signal weighting, crisis alpha, and portfolio construction 52:00 - Return stacking and diversifying equities 01:06:30 - Managed futures ETFs vs replication strategies 01:18:00 - Final thoughts and wrap-up Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here | |||