Recent deadly missile exchanges are the largest escalation between Israel and the Lebanon-based Islamist paramilitary group Hezbollah since the outbreak of the war in Gaza. Many fear it’s a precursor to a wider conflict which could engulf the region. But is it all brinkmanship? Can diplomacy head off an Israeli-Hezbollah conflict, and a potentially catastrophic regional face-off between Israel and Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran? Oz Katerji discusses the history and motives of Hezbollah with Lebanese political commentator Ronnie Chatah, and talks Iran and its regime’s foreign policy with Arash Azizi, historian and author of the recent book What Iranians Want.  Go to http://incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Climate change doesn’t just mean dire consequences for food, water, human migration and long-term human survival. As the seas heat up they create critical security issues, from impacts on military sonar to spikes in turbulence threatening commercial flights, from new theatres of war to suddenly fragile states and strengthened terrorist groups. Are we ignoring a new source of global instability?  Emma Beals talks to New Scientist’s environment reporter Madeleine Cuff about why the oceans are warming and where – and asks Pentagon advisor, strategist and Polar Institute fellow Sherri Goodman about why hotter, more dangerous seas are a “threat multiplier”.  • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more.  Got to incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Audio production by Robin Leeburn and Tom Taylor. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The West’s era of supremacy is over. Britain’s next Prime Minister will face the most dangerous security environment since the Second World War – a new age of critical insecurity. From Ukraine to the Middle East to China/Taiwan and beyond, the threats are piling up: cyberattacks, nuclear intimidation, assassinations on our territory and more. How will the next Prime Minister handle them? And have Brexit and our political instability left us too weakened to withstand them? Gavin Esler find out from Dr Christine Cheng – national security lecturer at King’s College London and chair of the Lib Dems’ National Security Group – and the UK’s first-ever National Security Advisor Lord Peter Ricketts.  Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Anyone familiar with Putin's history of kleptocracy, money laundering and threats of murder against his adversaries will know the name of Bill Browder, formerly one of Russia's leading foreign investors, now a sworn enemy of Vladimir Putin.  Browder talks to Arthur Snell about his new book Freezing Order, which details the 'real money' funding the Kremlin's war, and how he became Vladimir Putin’s number one enemy for exposing his campaign of theft and money laundering. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: http://doomsdaywatch.co.uk Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “The Putin regime does terrible things, and then puts their money in Western countries. We now have the chance to seize that.”  “Putin runs his kleptocracy by getting a cut of every crime.”  “Nobody wanted to rock the boat because the influx of Russian money into London was good for the economy.”  “I did something totally unforgivable, I treated Vladimir Putin with total disrespect.”  “We’ve waited too long to sanction the oligarchs, and it’s not changed Putin’s psychology.”  “Nobody who is a patriot would’ve done what Putin has done.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With the second round of France's presidential election on Sunday, what could the vote for the French response to the Ukraine crisis? And when other leaders have stopped, why has President Macron has continued diplomatic efforts with Vladimir Putin? Stephanie Pezard, senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, joins Arthur Snell to discuss France's approach to Russia's war, and what the conflict means for European defence and security. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Thank you for backing us on Patreon, we really appreciate your support. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “I doubt that a lot of the people who voted for Marine Le Pen thought about the Russia factor when casting their votes.” “It’s always been important for France to have its own military voice, rather than seeing itself following the initiative of others.” “This is France trying to give diplomacy as much of a chance as it can.”  DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With Russia's invasion of Ukraine faltering, could the Kremlin consider escalating the conflict using chemical weapons? What would biological warfare look like?  Dr Alastair Hay, a Professor of Environmental Toxicology at the University of Leeds, joins Arthur Snell to discuss the history of chemical weapons, and if we'll see them used in the Ukraine conflict. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Officially Russia should have no chemical weapons. But all the evidence points to them being responsible for the Salisbury poisonings.”  “The novichok nerve agent used against the Skripals and Navalny is exceeding lethal in small quantities.”  “Russia has stood back and supported Syria’s use of chemical weapons.”  “The U.K. had stocks of chemical weapons, but these were destroyed in the 1950s and 60s.”  “Chemical weapons cause nowhere near as many casualties as nuclear weapons, but they are indiscriminate.”  “Troops have protective clothing, but civilians don’t, so the use of these weapons would be to terrorise the population.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As Russia’s war crimes in Bucha are revealed to the world, are there more atrocities yet to be uncovered? And what should the world be doing to help Ukraine? Journalist Romeo Kokriatski dials in to tell Arthur Snell about Putin’s plans for genocide, how the war has changed Ukraine, and why the West needs to do more. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “My father-in-law slept in the cellar, and we’re very lucky he did because when he woke up in the morning, half the house was gone.” “For Ukrainians, this is far from the first time that we have been subjected to Russian aggression to kill a good portion of us.” “The world should be doing everything in its power to prevent another genocide.” “Britain, a rich, developed country which seems to want to help us in so many ways, draws the line at helping the most vulnerable in our society, refugees.” “The ultimate goal of all fascist states is to expand until they have dominium over the world. That is what Russia wants.” “Putin needs to be removed from power. If Russia is not halted now then this conflict will grow, and there is no negotiated route to peace.” “People have seen that Ukraine is developed and democratic European state, and I’m very proud of that.”  DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

China is yet to condemn Putin’s war, and Russia has reportedly asked Beijing for economic and military support. Is Xi proving to Putin’s most important ally? And what does Russia’s faltering invasion mean for China’s potential takeover of Taiwan? Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Programme at the German Marshall Fund, joins Arthur Snell to explain China’s stance on Russia’s invasion, and what war in Europe means for Asian security.  We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Putin and Xi have a close relationship, they’ve met 38 times. I’d be surprised if Putin did not give Xi a heads up about his plans.” “If China offers Russia military support of any significance, that will have a very negative effect on the US-China relationship, which is already at a dangerous point.” “China will be careful about how dependent it becomes on Russian oil and gas in the future.” “A weakened Russia is not in China’s interest. It won’t allow Moscow to be the close partner that Beijing needs.” “Taiwan will be far better prepared for an invasion by China than it is today.” “There is a sentiment in China that it’s time has come. The US is in decline and Beijing needs to seize this opportunity to advance its interests.” “I don’t think Xi Jinping is getting good advice. Like Putin he has a very small inner circle of people giving him advice on policy.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With Vladimir Putin putting Russia’s nuclear deterrent on high alert, could the war take an atomic turn? Or is this merely a tactical move from the Kremlin? And what could the Ukraine crisis mean for nuclear policy in the coming years? Dr Laura Considine, politics professor at Leeds University, joins Arthur Snell to explain the history of nuclear proliferation, atomic weapons in the context of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and the direction of nuclear policy in the coming years. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “North Korea developed its nuclear weapons secretly while party to the non-proliferation treaty.” “What we’re seeing here is nuclear weapons being used as a means of enabling aggression.” “A lot of tactical nuclear weapons are bigger than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.” “Deterrence is all about what didn’t happen, and it’s very hard to analyse what hasn’t occurred.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As war rages on Russia’s European front, tensions are also rising in the East with neighbours Japan, as Russian forces conduct military drills on the disputed Northern Territories, claimed by Japan. Japanese Deputy Cabinet Secretary Koichiro Matsumoto joins Arthur Snell to explain the complicated history between Japan and Russia, what Putin’s invasion means for Asian security, and how the Japanese people have rallied around Ukraine. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Russia’s invasion undermines the foundation of not only Europe, but the entire international order.” “Japan has condemned Russia’s invasion since the very beginning.” “Like many world neighbours, Russia and Japan have numerous unresolved and difficult issues.” “Japan’s path to a ‘Russia-Free’ economy is not an easy one.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It has been over a month since Russia invaded Ukraine, but with Kyiv still yet to fall Kremlin officials have announced plans to withdraw troops from the region. Where did Russia’s war go so wrong? Is this retreat real, or is Putin wargaming for something bigger? Dr Mike Martin, a former British Army officer and author of Why We Fight, joins Arthur Snell to discuss Russia’s apparent withdrawal, and where the conflict could go next. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/carrd.co/  “The Russians only have around 200,000 soldiers, but you need around a million to hold Ukraine.” “The people at the top of the Ukrainian army would’ve served in the Soviet army, so they are aware of how it operates.” “Russia have a number of commitments that tie up their forces… they’re very worried about China.” “Syrians and Central Africans are being paid by Russia to fight. They wouldn’t be calling on these people if they had a formed reserve.” “As far as the Ukrainians are concerned, this is a fight for national survival, and the public are behind them.” “Russia are shifting their goals because they need some kind of domestic victory.” “If you look through history, Russian leaders don’t survive when they lose wars.” “A fighting retreat is probably the most difficult land manoeuvre to execute.” “If costs aren’t imposed on Russia like they weren’t in 2014, then they will come again and finish the job off.” “Even for the propagandists in the Kremlin, using nukes is a step too far.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has Western nations looking to the Middle East for their oil supplies, but are they obliging? And could the conflict in Europe spark another round of uprisings across the Arab world? Human rights activist and authoritarianism expert Iyad el-Baghdadi joins Arthur Snell to discuss what Putin’s war means for the Middle East.  We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “MBS has a personal like of Putin, and in some ways he’s modelled himself on him.” “America is not going to defend MBS against a popular uprising.” “The Saudi Army cannot vanquish ragtag militias in Yemen. It needs Western security guarantees.” “Bread is the staple across the Arab region... Egypt imports 80% of its wheat from Ukraine or Russia.” “Riots about bread prices quickly turn into riots about corruption, mismanagement and repression.” “The only group who can check a dictator and end his power for good is his own people.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In 2014 Macer Gifford left his job as a city trader to go and fight ISIS in Syria. Now he’s continuing his work as an international volunteer, this time in the Ukraine conflict. In an illuminating conversation, Macer tells Arthur about the parallels between wars in Syria and Ukraine, the role of international volunteers in the conflict, and his plans for a frontline medical unit to support the Ukrainian people. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “I was there as the bombs began to fall, and seeing people huddling on the metro felt like the blitz.” “A lot of international volunteers I was with in Syria are already on the ground in Ukraine.” “My plan is to create a medical unit with volunteers, and to deploy them on the frontline to support both the Ukrainian military and civilians.” “We’re going to see tactics similar to Syria where Russia bombs civilian centres into submission.” “If the economic might of the west can bring Russia to its knees then we might get a negotiated settlement.” “What Ukraine needs now is enthusiastic volunteers who are willing to defend every inch of territory.”  DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Whether Trump wins the Presidential Election or not, his dark place in American history is assured. He’s not just the first former or sitting President to be convicted of criminal activity, and the first to attempt to overturn an election. He has changed the Republican Party and its voter base deeply and possibly irrevocably. How will Trump be remembered? Gavin Esler asks Boston College professor of American History Heather Cox-Richardson what Trump has done to the Republican Party – whether a Trump win really means the end of democracy in the US – and what comes after he has vacated the scene. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has Finland questioning its tradition of military non-alignment. Janne Korhonen, university professor and political activist, dials in to tell Arthur how the debate on NATO membership has shifted following Putin’s war.  We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “When Russia invaded in 1939, Finland was in quite a similar position to Ukraine today.” “We joined the EU because we were afraid of Russia, but going to NATO at that time would’ve been too much.” “The defence of Finland is not just a question for the military, but for the whole of society.” “The last poll showed 62% of Finns are in favour in joining NATO, a complete reversal from six months ago.” “My guess is that Finland will be NATO members before the end of this year. It’s now or never.” “These threats Russia is making about Sweden and Finland joining NATO are nothing new. They’ve been making them for over 20 years.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

India’s tradition of military non-alignment has come under huge strain with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The world’s second most populous country has tried to maintain a neutral stance, but has come under sharp criticism from the West as casualties from the conflict mount.  What explains India’s stance, and what does it hope to achieve? Harsh Pant, International relations professor at Kings College London’s India Institute, joins Arthur Snell to discuss. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “This crisis has exposed India’s vulnerabilities, they’re very reliant on Russia for their defence capabilities.” “As this conflict has dragged on, the Indian Government has become increasingly uncomfortable with its position.” “Ironically India is the only country that needs both Russia and the West on its side.” “The Covid period showed that over reliance on China is not healthy.” “Russia and China getting together is perhaps one of the worst nightmares for India.” “India is drifting away from Russia and towards the West, that is a long-term trend.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Two weeks into Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and things aren’t going to plan. Kyiv is still yet to fall, and Russian troops have failed to make substantial progress against fierce Ukrainian resistance.  Defence analyst and military historian Dr Peter Caddick-Adams joins Arthur Snell to pinpoint where Russia’s shameful war went wrong… and what could happen next. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Russia still has conscription, and we in the west don’t understand how badly conscripts are treated.” “Zelensky has become Churchill. His words and the way he delivers them have a real sense of validity.” “Standing up to Putin is like standing up to Josef Stalin. It’s simply not an option.” “While Russia wants to control Ukraine, it doesn’t want to occupy it. Their army is nowhere near big enough.” “The more Putin pulls off his gloves, the more the world is turns back to 1989.” “This is a war where history is really relevant. There are parallels with city battles from World War 2.”  DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Is Russia’s fiasco in Ukraine just Putin’s monstrous folly? Or does the Russian military have even bigger problems? Arthur Snell hears from KCL Lecturer for German and European Studies Alexander Clarkson about how a flawed image of Ukraine as a failed state sowed the seeds of Russia’s embarrassment. And how, when Putin invaded Crimea in 2014, he inadvertently began training a generation of fighters who do not know how to give up. Sound quality warning! This time Arthur records from a car park in Swindon. Never let it be said that we don’t go the extra mile for the Doomsday Watch faithful. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “How are you going to occupy a country of 21m people with a force of 150,000 troops? It’s La La Land.” “The Russians talked themselves into a position where they had to attack something.” “What really matters is, when everything goes to hell around you, can you stay calm? Some 400,000 Ukrainians have crossed that psychological threshold. Whatever hits them, they can do what has to be done." “Everything the Russians have done is just very… weird. Everything they do triggers what they’re trying to prevent.” “If Ukraine survives, very mid-sized states will conclude that, you know what? We can fuck the Americans or the Chinese.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The bogeyman of NATO expansion was Putin’s pretext to invade Ukraine. Can NATO act now to stop Russia’s war – or would that trigger nuclear conflict? Is a No-Fly Zone practical? Former NATO representative in Moscow and now Chatham House associate fellow John Lough tells Arthur Snell about the latest state of play with NATO and the long-term implications of the most dangerous security crisis in Europe since 1945. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “This operation is not playing out as Russia expected. They thought the blitzkrieg would work – but they have fatally misread Ukraine.” “Two generations of Ukrainians have been born into freedom. The heroism they’ve shown in recent days is extraordinary.” “Will we see an incident at the border as NATO attempts to deliver ammunition to Ukraine? There’s a lot of danger there.” “We are prosecuting our own hybrid warfare now – economic war… Russia will go back to the Soviet Union on steroids.” “The disaster in Ukraine can only lead to Putin leaving office a lot earlier. And it may bring the entire system down.” “Russia has entered a quagmire that will lead to an embarrassing defeat. No amount of state propaganda can cover up that.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Putin has few friends – but one is Belarusian despot Alexander Lukashenko. Belarusian democracy activist and reporter Hanna Liubakova talks to Arthur Snell from exile in Lithuania, to explain how Lukashenko dragged her country into the war – and what the world can expect from Putin’s stooge. What price will Belarus pay for Lukashenko’s fealty? We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Lukashenko has made us a full-fledged aggressor in this war… We in Belarus believe this is high treason.” “Most Belarusians don’t want this war. They don’t want to threaten our neighbour.”  “Lukashenko is giving away our sovereignty and independence to Russia… He’s not making the major decisions. Putin is.” “We had seen Donbass, Crimea, Georgia, Moldova… but we could not imagine that a fully-fledged attack on a sovereign country could take place.” “The weaker Lukashenko is, the weaker Putin is.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kyiv is under siege but Putin’s invasion is going badly. How far will Russia’s ruler go to win his monstrous gamble? And what can the West do to stop him? In the first of our irregular Ukraine War bulletins we talk to Ukrainian journalists Artyom Liss and Kyiv-based Romeo Kokriatski about the balance of power in Ukraine, the resolve of President Zelensky, and Putin’s doomsday psychology. We’ll be releasing special Ukraine War bulletins on an irregular basis as new developments arise. Help us keep podcasting, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/doomsdaywatch “It seems crazy that it has only been six days. At this point, I can’t even remember what peace was like.” – Romeo Kokriatski “I don’t think anyone could have predicted this level of carnage, this level of destruction or this level of madness.” – Artyom Liss DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As tensions rise on the Ukrainian border, are we looking at the first ground war in Europe since 1945? In an emergency roundtable edition of Doomsday Watch, Arthur Snell asks a panel of experts what’s driving Putin’s thinking, how far he and Russia are willing to go to achieve their aims, and if a disastrous conflict can be averted. Want to support us, get episodes early and extra content? Support us on Patreon and back us from just £3 per month now. “The question is less, ‘Is Russia going to invade?’ and more ‘When will Russia invade?’” - Romeo Kokriatski “The only person who knows what Putin is planning to do is Putin himself. It all depends on his mood when he wakes up in the morning.” - Artyom Liss “Putin saw the fall of the Soviet Union as a catastrophe. I wouldn’t fault anyone for thinking that he may want to rebuild the empire.” - Romeo Kokriatski “Younger people who are more western-oriented, are quite embarrassed by Russia’s position on Ukraine.” - Artyom Liss “The longer this goes on, European partners are likely to become more aligned with each other .” - John Lough “Russian is only scared of NATO in that NATO prevents Russia from bullying its neighbours around.” - Romeo Kokriatski DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. The group editor is Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this series we’ve looked at under-reported threats to global stability, from the psychology of Xi Jinping to the coming water crisis to the War on Truth. But what happens next? In this extended end-of-season edition, Arthur Snell steps back to look at the big picture with experts in geopolitics, future warfare and the Chinese, Russian and American superpowers. Can the world pull itself from the brink – or is our Long Peace coming to an end?  Season Two of Doomsday Watch is coming soon. Help us shape it and get new episodes early when you support us on Patreon. •  “What we’ve seen is the loss of the structures that have contained violence.” – Dr Mike Martin •  “Americans are tired – tired of not only of being at war, but also as being perceived as being warmongers.” – Candace Rondeaux •  “People will fight for a cause. That cause can be nationalism, to serve a particular master or to promote a different vision of society.” – Margaret MacMillan •  “You saw it with defeat in Afghanistan: the West does not have confidence in its own values, nor the staying power to implement them anywhere else.” – Ian Dunt •  “We are in a very dangerous situation, where we face the potential of weapons systems outside of human control that perhaps can’t be stopped.” – Margaret MacMillan •  “I worry now that we’re entering a stage where we might have a big war. I think there’s a 50-50 chance.” – Dr Mike Martin •  “All around me I see people wanting to take on populism, who want a better kind of world that makes sense.” – Ian Dunt DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Cold Warriors of the postwar world never dreamed that Western democracies would come to rely on a global information network – and that our very openness could be turned against us. As the stories of Brexit, COVID and Trump coalesce into one nightmare tale of disinformation and weaponised lying, Arthur Snell asks whether democracy can survive in a post-truth world. If you control the information space, do you control the future? And after the pandemic, can we withstand the infodemic? Want to support us, get episodes early and extra content? Support us on Patreon and back us from just £3 per month now. • “If you’ve got enough money, you can ensure that people hear your talking points day in day out, hour after hour.” – Amil Khan • “COVID was a means to test these weapons. Climate denial is the next battleground, and it will make the anti-lockdown and COVID stuff look like child’s play.” – Darren Loucaides • “If tech companies can’t moderate memes and text, how on Earth are they going to moderate the Metaverse?” — Nina Jankowicz • “Soviet Union was Terminator 1: bulky and ungainly. Now Putin’s Russia is Terminator 2, very fluid and adaptable.” – Peter Pomerantsev • “Our systems are threatened not by people who are suffering but by comfortable middle class people who are bored and looking to go on a crusade.” — Tom Nichols • “What is shocking is how fast people will jump from a failure of policy itself to the idea that the whole edifice of liberal democracy needs to be junked in favour of a celebrity strongman.” — Tom Nichols • “Our openness is a weakness. We can’t go into Russia and broadcast like the BBC can – but RT can come here and say anything it likes.” – Nina Jankowicz DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. The group editor is Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hard right parties are sweeping Europe and analysts fear they will do well in this week’s elections across the EU. How deeply are radical right parties, with their immigration and culture war fixations and indulgence of Putin, distorting politics from Spain to Germany and Poland and beyond? What does their success mean for the EU’s stability and the defence of Ukraine? And can the populist wave be stopped? Gavin Esler talks to political analyst Catherine Fieschi – author of Populocracy: The Tyranny of Authenticity and the Rise of Populism –  and German public broadcaster ARD’s London Bureau Chief Annette Dittert about the defining threat of our age: extremist populism. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The digital Utopia we were promised has given us a desperately vulnerable world where we depend on a global internet with a billion badly-protected backdoors. Today’s cyber-war battlegrounds aren’t on bank servers or Government databases. They’re in your smart fridges, doorbells and security cameras. Arthur Snell traces a path from the first-ever co-ordinated cyber-attack (on Estonia in 2007) to a world of invisible weapons and relentless probing conflict – where hostile governments can target your own phone anywhere on earth. How do you defend democratic societies when everything has become a computer?  Want to support us, get episodes early and extra content? Support us on Patreon and back us from just £3 per month now. “As soon as we discover something convenient for our lives, we become dependent on it… We’re now as dependent on connectivity as we are on electricity.” – Mikko Hypponen “Most people just don’t understand how much their devices leak about them… We are all carrying tracking devices with us.” – Eva Galperin “You can’t see a cyber weapon on a military parade ground… Countries are putting billions into these weapons and nobody knows about them.” – Mikko Hypponen “Is it really wise for any country to establish a Νational Registry of Persons, and keep most of your personal data in one place?” – Ciaran Martin “We are turning everything into a computer… If it’s smart, it’s vulnerable.” – Mikko Hypponen DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. The group editor is Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What could persuade someone to leave a comparatively wealthy country in the Western Hemisphere to fight and die in the hellhole of the Islamic State? That’s exactly what happened in the unlikely setting of Trinidad and Tobago. Arthur Snell pieces together an astonishing story of how radicalisation is continuing in unexpected places around the world – how jihad leaders learned from the experts in global expansion, the fast food giants – and how jihad has found its mirror in QAnon. How do we fight terror when global jihad has gone local? We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Trinidadians who had never driven a tanker before were suddenly sending me pictures where they were holding up machine guns.” – Asha Javeed “These threats have grown out of the very measures that were supposed to contain them.” – Arthur Snell “The US invasion of Iraq was the most severe strategic misjudgment since Hitler decided to invade Russia.” – David Kilcullen “Jihad has become a global product that adapts to its surroundings. Think of it as fast food.” – Arthur Snell “When I was in Iraq during the insurgency, al-Zarqawi was the one you feared, not Bin Laden.” – Arthur Snell DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. The group editor is Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After 9/11 the West invaded Afghanistan and Iraq to remake them as friendly, terror-free liberal democracies. But the unintended consequences were historic disaster, countless dead and the humbling of Western power, symbolised by the shameful evacuation of Kabul in 2021. How did we get it so catastrophically wrong? Arthur Snell, who served in Lashkar Gah in Helmand Province, explores the flawed thinking that generated the very insurgencies the West was trying to suppress. Has the West built a world of forever wars that it can’t win? Want to support us, get episodes early and extra content? Support us on Patreon and back us from just £3 per month now. •  “Every way you look, the Western way of war burns through cash. And that creates incentives for warlords, generals and Prime Ministers.” – Arthur Snell •  “When we went to Helmand I really thought we were going to get this right… And over several command meetings I started to think, Do we really know what we’re doing?” – Frank Ledwidge •  “Having invaded these countries and toppled their governments, we didn’t know what to do next.” – Arthur Snell •  “She told me, the Afghan people hate you. They hate you because you make promises you don’t deliver on.” – Frank Ledwidge •  “No-one said ‘You can’t do counter-narcotics, and take away people’s livelihoods, in the same place you’re supposed to be winning hearts and minds.’” – Mike Martin •  “One of the reasons we crashed into Helmand was internal military politics. It suited the army to go in, to preserve its force structure.” – Mike Martin   DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music is by Paul Hartnoll. The group editor is Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

An Indian megacity of 11 million people literally runs out of water, trucking in 10m litres a day to hydrate a panicking population amid water queues and panic-buying. In Bolivia a scandalous water privatisation leaves people paying a quarter of their earnings just to drink. Water riots and deaths ensue. And in the UK, companies take £60bn in profit while pumping raw sewage into waterways – while London’s millennia-old chalk aquifer is now drained bone-dry. The Capital is now under threat of running out of drinking water altogether. When the water runs out, populations move in their millions. And that means destabiliation on a global scale. Arthur talks to researchers and unlikely experts (yes, that’s Feargal Sharkey from The Undertones) about a threat that’s bigger than any populist movement or villainous autocrat. We’re facing hydropocalypse.  “London is now on a list of nine global cities most likely to run out of drinking water” – FEARGAL SHARKEY  “Water management is conflict management.” – AARON WOLF “We built water systems for a climate that no longer exists.” – SANDRA POSTEL “By 2050 Britain is facing a water shortage of 1.2 billion litres a day.” – FEARGAL SHARKEY “We have loaded the dice for more of these extreme events.” – SANDRA POSTEL Want to support us, get episodes early and extra content? Support us on Patreon and back us from just £3 per month now. DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music is by Paul Hartnoll. Guitar sting by Kenny Dickinson. The group editor is Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What happens to the Middle East when the world stops buying its oil? As the world races to decarbonise, the region’s petrochemical plutocrats face a terrible decision. To keep power, they must cut off their addiction to oil. The plans of one young Saudi prince – the ambitious, ruthless Mohammed bin Salman – are already unleashing a wave of arrests, intimidation, black ops and murder across the world. Oil power has enforced brutal stability in the region since WWII. What happens when it crumbles? “Because Jamal Kashoggi had worked for the regime, he had to die. The message is that they can do anything with impunity, there are no consequences – and everybody should be afraid of them.” – HUGH MILES “How do we keep our thrones in a neighbourhood where everybody hates us?” – IYAD EL-BAGHDADI “If you are against the Saudi regime they will target you wherever you are. Financially physically or mentally, they will try to destroy you.” – ‘GHANEM’ “This is a perfect storm. We’re transitioning to a new world and these governments are just not prepared for it.” – IYAD EL-BAGHDADI  “The Saudis are like the Tudors. There are no rules. It’s a constant struggle for power with a merciless focus on the sole question of succession: who is next?” – HUGH MILES Want to support us, get episodes early and extra content? Support us on Patreon and back us from just £3 per month now. DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music is by Paul Hartnoll. The group editor is Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia’s newly-belligerent stance has rocked the democratic West on its heels, from the annexation of the Crimea to the sponsoring of extremist digital disinformation to – almost certainly – the stacking of elections in the US and UK. And it all stems from the paranoid, Machiavellian, espionage-steeped mindset of one man: Vladimir Putin.  On this edition, Arthur talks to exiled journalists, foreign correspondents including Luke Harding of The Guardian and Russia analysts to unpick the question that baffles even Russians themselves: What does Putin want? Пожалуйста, наслаждайтесь нашим подкастом. Спасибо! “There was no liberal Putin. There was no ‘white album’.” – LUKE HARDING “Russia is the world champion at national suicide. It’s a deeply, deeply self-destructive country.” – PETER POMERANTSEV “Putin doesn’t even see Ukraine as a country… They think, this was always ours, what is the US doing interfering?” – ARTYOM LISS “The plan is to make Russia great again… Neither London nor Washington nor Paris has come up with an adequate way to deal with him.” – LUKE HARDING Want to support us, get episodes early and extra content? Support us on Patreon and back us from just £3 per month now. DOOMSDAY WATCH был написан и представлен Артуром Снеллом, а продюсером - Робином Либерном - с ассистентом продюсера Джейкоба Арчболда. Мелодия и оригинальная музыка написаны Полом Хартноллом. Редактор группы - Эндрю Харрисон. DOOMSDAY WATCH - это продукция Podmasters. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On this episode of the podcast that looks at the threats to global stability that they’re not telling you about – the mind behind the unstoppable rise of China. Who is Xi Jinping? What are the forces that shaped China’s paramount leader? Will his psychological make-up, and his belief that his country has been robbed of its rightful place, lead inexorably to confrontation with the West? And what does Thucydides have to do with it? Arthur talks to experts and China insiders to ask: are we on the brink of World War Xi?  “China and Russia have greatly expanded their roles as great powers. We are now in an era where the dragons are back.” – David Kilcullen “In Xi’s mind, China was great until colonialism and imperialism brought it low. His goal is to make China great again.” – Cindy Yu  “Where could it begin? Perhaps with the Chinese military chomping at the bit for conflict and a worried, fearful Chinese government indulging them just to preserve their loyalty.” – Kori Schake “Xi has been waiting his whole life to return China to great power status. This could be his moment” – Arthur Snell  Want to support us, get episodes early and extra content? Support us on Patreon and back us from just £3 per month now. DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. The group editor is Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The world has never stood as close to the apocalypse as it does today. Hosted by ARTHUR SNELL, a former British diplomat and counter-terrorism operative who has seen service in Yemen, Helmand and Zimbabwe, DOOMSDAY WATCH meets experts and eyewitness for an unflinching look at the threats that conventional media ignores. On this first edition: Is a toxic combination of extreme partisanship, detached elites and Trump’s incitement driving the world’s greatest democracy to a second Civil War? • “This is the story of a great project that has torn itself apart from the inside.” – ARTHUR SNELL • “At what point do we stop saying this is a democratic country?” – BRIAN KLAAS • “Where there is anger and polarised states, democracy may not work any more.” – JACK GOLDSTONE Want to support us, get episodes early and extra content? Support us on Patreon and back us from just £3 per month now. DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell and produced by Robin Leeburn – with assistant production from Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music is by Paul Hartnoll. The group editor is Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What’s it like to live next to the world’s worst neighbour: Vladimir Putin’s Russia? In 2024, pro-democracy Georgians are beaten for resisting their pro-Moscow government from enacting a Putinesque “foreign agents” law. Poland is rearming against the Russian threat, and the Baltic states of the former USSR are subjected to hybrid warfare from their former occupiers. Yet instead of terrorising Europe, is Putin’s aggression uniting it behind ideals of democracy and mutual support? Polish historian Karolina Wigura tells Gavin Esler how Russia’s belligerence is turning Poland towards the West. And Russian Studies expert and RUSI fellow Natia Seskuria explains Georgia’s unprecedented pro-EU protests. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As Defence Secretary, former Scots Guard Ben Wallace was one of few well-respected ministers during the Johnson years. In office he faced the Afghanistan withdrawal and Russia’s war on Ukraine. As he prepares to leave Parliament, he tells Oz Katerji why Europe must re-arm to support Ukraine and deter Putin’s Russia; how Netanyahu has over-extended Israel in its war with Hamas; and why China is now the economic master of Russia.  Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In 2024 four billion people will vote in the biggest election year in history, which will see existential tests for democracy in the US, India and elsewhere. What is shaping the battle between democracy and autocracy? And who is winning? Ellection-distorting technology is outpacing governments’ ability to regulate it. Can democracy survive the uncontrolled spread of A.I., deepfakes and disinformation technology? Emma Beals talks to “Godfather of democracy studies” Larry Diamond, senior fellow at the Hoover Institute, and Katie Harbath – former Facebook Public Policy Director, and founder of Anchor Change – about a critical year for democracy.     Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The new Cold War between China and the US isn’t just fought on the digital plane. China is supplying equipment to Russia, intimidating Taiwan, bringing countries across Africa and Asia into its orbit – and, according to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, attempting to influence the US Presidential Election. What does Xi Jinping really want? Can he square China’s goal of being the “workshop of the world” with its foreign policy? And will he really move against Taiwan? Gavin Esler talks to distinguished China correspondent James Miles and political scientist and historian Professor Steve Tsang, co-author of The Political Thought of Xi Jinping, about China’s leader and his goals.   Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

America’s war to liberate Kuwait from Saddam Hussein in 1991 was supposed to inaugurate a New World Order. President George HW Bush spoke of protecting ‘“peace, security, freedom and the rule of law… such is a world worthy of our children’s future.” But the failed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq in the 2000s, China’s resurgence and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have left the idea of a coherent, US-led world order in tatters. In a special panel episode, Gavin Esler is joined by co-hosts Emma Beals and Oz Katerji to talk about American foreign policy in an age of spiralling tensions in the Middle East, the continued threat from Russia, and the wildcard risk of a potential return to the White House of Donald Trump.  Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler, with Emma Beals and Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The world has responded with stunning cynicism to the wave of coups d’etat across Central Africa – either ignoring the violence, suffering and the rise of military strongmen, or exploiting it for their own ends. From Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso to the bloody civil war and mass displacement in Sudan, Oz Katerji finds that the Sahel region isn’t only threatened by war, drought and Islamist terror. The “Africa Corps” wing of Russia’s Wagner paramilitaries are vying with the Gulf States for power, influence and Africa’s resources. Where did it go wrong for democracy in Africa – and is there any way to fix this delicate region? With the Sudanese journalist Dallia Abdelmoniem and Dr Ebenezer Obadare, Senior Fellow for Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC.  Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Iran’s drone attacks on Israel, in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its embassy in Damascus, shocked the world this weekend. Israel’s divided war cabinet is considering a response, the US has warned it will not take part in a counteroffensive, and world leaders fear an escalation into regional war. But will it really happen? Gavin Esler speaks to expert on the Iranian regime Prof Ali Ansari of the University of St Andrews about whether a weak and isolated Teheran really wants war, Netanyahu’s calculus, the balance of power… and whether Iran’s claim that “the issue is concluded” is as much a prayer as a statement. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The course of the war in Ukraine changed dramatically on Tuesday 6th August when Ukraine launched an unprecedented incursion on Russian territory. The Kursk Offensive took Moscow entirely by surprise, with thousands of Ukrainian troops moving into the region – taking control of villages – and claiming 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory. What does this sudden move to the offensive by Zelenskyy mean? What can Ukraine achieve – and how does the attack change the dynamic of the war? Oz Katerji finds out from Ukraine security expert Maria Avdeeva, Research Director at the European Expert Association. Got to incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan with Incogni • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Eliza Beard Davis. Audio production by Tom Taylor. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production   podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Why does the militarily weaker side lose many battles but often win the war? In the 21st Century the David-vs-Goliath threat of asymmetric warfare – where small non-state militias and terror groups defeat vastly better armed nation states in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere – is back. Now armed groups including Yemen’s Houthi, Hamas and Islamic State are growing and re-energised by a vast new funding sources: the global drugs trade, and even crypto. Gavin Esler speaks to Dr David Ucko – professor at the College of International Security Affairs, National Defense University – and counterinsurgency and organised crime expert Vanda Felbab-Brown to find out why asymmetric warfare has returned, who’s funding it… and whether we can ever defeat it. • “We have put a lot of stock in fences and walls which may soon prove inadequate. What if you can fly a drone from North Africa with pinpoint accuracy into a civilian airport?” – Dr David Ucko • “A global revolution in synthetic drugs is sweeping the world… and everywhere it’s associated with intensified violence.” – Vanda Felbab-Brown • “If we ignore this, then you get the Wagner Group and other players trying to do their thing, as we see in the Sahel and across Africa.” – Dr David Ucko Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. *The views of Dr David Ucko belong to the contributor and do not represent the views of the Department of Defense or its components or the USF administration or its component. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Houthi attacks on shipping have thrown global supply lines into turmoil, and led 20 countries to intervene militarily. But the Red Sea logistics crisis is just the latest in series of shocks to the world trade system, from the Pandemic to Ukraine and beyond. What does it mean when any pirate with a missile and a TikTok account can hold domestic supplies to ransom? And who wants to take advantage? Emma Beals speaks to Elisabeth Braw – senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Transatlantic Security Initiative – and Bruce Jones, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, to discover the new conflict on the High Seas. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Special edition: On Friday March 22, Islamic State gunmen murdered more than 130 people in Moscow’s Crocus City Hall concert venue, just 12 miles from the Kremlin. Putin tried to direct the blame towards Ukraine, but it has emerged that Russia’s FSB had ignored plausible warnings of an impending terror attack from Western security services.  Gavin Esler speaks to Russian investigative journalist and security services expert Andrei Soldatov about this catastrophic failure of Russian intelligence, her military and her emergency services – and the possible consequences of the Crocus City Hall massacre.   Buy The Compatriots: The Russian Exiles Who Fought Against the Kremlin by Andrei Soldatov through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll be helping to support This Is Not A Drill. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too.   Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The spying game was supposed to fade into history with the Cold War. But Vladimir Putin’s historic grievances, obsession with Ukraine and need to placate his own intelligence agencies have sent a new wave of espionage across the world. The West thinks we’re at peace. The Russians know we’re at war. So what are Western intelligence agencies going to do about it? Gavin Esler speaks to Russian investigative journalist and security services expert Andrei Soldatov and former CIA officer turned novelist Alex Finley about our new Age of Spies – from murders on foreign soil to the information war on Kyiv to the infestation of Vienna as an “aircraft carrier of spies” • “The first round [in this espionage battle] was the Second World War, and Russia won that one. The second was the Cold War which Russia lost. For Russia, this is the third round – and it’s time for revenge.” – Andrei Soldatov • “Ukraine is the kinetic war but really this is worldwide hybrid war against the rest of us. It’s much bigger than most people realise.” – Alex Finley • “European intelligence agencies operate as if this is a time of peace. For Russian agencies, this is a time of war.” – Andrei Soldatov • “We’re at a pivotal moment in history. Either we are going to secure democracy or we are going to enter an authoritarian moment.” – Alex Finley Buy The Compatriots: The Russian Exiles Who Fought Against the Kremlin by Andrei Soldatov through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll be helping to support This Is Not A Drill. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Putin has used digital disinformation against Ukraine and the West since long before the Russian invasion, undermining US and EU support for Kyiv by smearing Ukrainians as Nazis and denying Russia’s many atrocities. Are we already in an information war? And how do we win it? Gavin Esler talks to longterm Putin-watcher and post-truth analyst Peter Pomerantsev, author of How To Win An Information War: The Propagandist Who Outwitted Hitler about Russia’s post-truth strategy – and what the astonishing WWII story of British propagandist Sefton Delmer can teach us about fighting big state lies. • “Russia uses the term ‘information war’ across its strategy… They see everything from the BBC to NGOs as part of an information war machine ranged against Russia.” • “This is a very cynical worldview, where no journalism is genuine – it must have been ordered by some dark forces.” • “Putin knows that being able to lie and laugh in people’s faces is a sign of power.” • “Sefton Delmer gave ordinary Germans a safe environment where they could start to be disloyal to the Nazis… He gave people a form of psychological cover.” Buy How To Win An Information War and Peter Pomerantsev’s This Is Not Propaganda: Adventures in the War Against Reality through our affiliate bookshop. You’ll be helping to fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Iran – America’s arch-enemy and the Middle East’s malign “mini-Imperial power” – fans conflicts from Ukraine to Israel to Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon, and is said to be only weeks away from developing a nuclear weapon. But the Islamic Revolution is under sustained attack from within, under the banner of ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’. Can Iran maintain its hardline power in the Muslim world? What do its second- and third-generation revolutionaries want? And can the West contain them? Gavin Esler talks to Arash Azizi, author of What Iranians Want, and Barbara Slavin, author of Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies, to explore the basis of Iranian power – and how Donald Trump wrecked what trust there was between the US and Iran. • “Iran is now more of a military regime than a theocracy… The Revolutionary Guard and Khameini’s family are calling the shots.” – Barbara Slavin • “It’s not about religion any more. It’s about a bunch of goons who are willing to rule over your life in any way they want.” – Arash Azizi • “Iran today is internationally isolated and economically destroyed… The Islamic Republic has taken our country hostage and made it a foreign policy tool for an ideology.” – Arash Azizi • “Trump not only destroyed any basis of trust between the US and Iran, he destroyed confidence in the US as being a state that lives up to its commitments.” – Barbara Slavin Buy these and others books through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: How is Ukraine’s defence of its territory holding up under Putin’s onslaught? How do Ukrainians see the Trump Right’s obstruction of $60bn of aid to Kyiv? Is the loss of Avdiivka to Russia really what it seems? And how could the War end? Ukrainian journalist and Chatham House fellow Olga Tokariuk tells Oz Katerji how the war is going… and why Ukrainians have reason to be optimistic about the future. • “It is clear that if Russia is allowed to win in Ukraine, Putin will not stop there… It would doom Europe to decades of war.” • “The resolve of Ukrainians has not weakened… But we don’t see the West’s words matched by deeds.” • “Avdiivka is not such a huge victory for Russia… The price that Russia has paid is huge.” Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The first of two specials covering Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: Inside Russia. Avdiivka has fallen, Alexei Navalny is dead, and pro-Russia Republicans are starving Kyiv of ammunition. Putin finally feels the war could turn in his direction. Is he right? And how does the Russian tyrant keep control of a country where a restive mood is growing… and even fake elections can matter? Oz Katerji talks to Mark Galeotti, historian and host of the podcast In Moscow’s Shadows, about the political world Putin has made, and what it means.  Part Two of these specials will be with Patreon people early in the week.  • “We are looking at Russia’s degeneration into its Banana Republic phase.”  • “The investment of human lives into taking Avdiivka is completely out of proportion to its strategic value.” • “Putin is a primordial 19th century nationalist… He can’t cope with the idea that Russia is not some world-bestriding colossus.”  Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From Cop28 to Manchester City to the attempted purchase of the Telegraph newspaper, the United Arab Emirates are suddenly flexing power and prestige across the Gulf. Behind it all is Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, known as MBZ, who mixes a show of modernisation with an iron will, especially regarding human rights. Who is MBZ? How has his tiny state become such a global player? And are the UAE a friend or a foe of democracies? Emma Beals talks to Dr Andreas Krieg, fellow at the Institute of Middle East Studies at King’s College London, and Middle East expert Dr Talal Mohammad to find out how MBZ is buying his way to power. • “9/11 was a formative moment for him. He saw how powerful these Islamist networks could be in his own country… it brought about a perception of ‘If you’re not with us, you’re against us’.” – Dr Andreas Krieg • “As long as the major world powers are divided, then the UAE, Saudi and the others will try to exploit that situation.” – Dr Talal Mohammad • “Everyone who knows him from Sandhurst says he’s not one of these spoilt princes. He is highly disciplined and he has a vision of what he wants for the UAE.” – Dr Andreas Krieg Gavin Esler returns next week. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices