Theory of Change – Details, episodes & analysis

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Theory of Change

Devex

News

Frequency: 1 episode/8d. Total Eps: 11

Theory of Change is a podcast about the future of global development — and the people trying to reshape it.

Hosted by Devex Senior Reporter Michael Igoe, the show features candid conversations with leaders in philanthropy, foreign policy, technology, finance, media, and humanitarian aid about the forces transforming how global change actually happens: power, politics, money, influence, and ideas.

Not a panel. A conversation with a real person.

Episodes are published every Tuesday.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel:
https://www.youtube.com/@devex

The podcast is produced by Devex Associate Editor Thomas Cserép and Mai Ylagan.

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What does 'country ownership' really mean?

Episode 11

Tuesday, August 25, 2026 • Duration 52:47

What is “country ownership,” really? And what gets in the way of making it a reality?

Against a backdrop of historic cuts to development assistance by many of the world’s largest donors, the chorus of voices calling for national governments to set — and finance — their own development agendas is growing louder.

Yemi Osinbajo, the former vice president of Nigeria and co-chair of the Future of Development Cooperation Coalition, has seen firsthand what happens when international donors and national development priorities are aligned — or not.

Osinbajo joined the Devex Theory of Change podcast to challenge the myths and misconceptions around state capacity, corruption, and international finance.

"Forget about giving cash or aid. Let's focus on systemic changes that can release the resources that African countries need for their development,” Osinbajo says.

That means targeting markets and value chains that currently disadvantage lower-income countries, through systemic partnerships rather than one-off handouts, he says.

It also means being honest about who is complicit in propping up systems that are plagued by corruption, or biased against regions perceived as risky, whether they truly are or not.

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How Jacqueline Novogratz invests for global change

Episode 10

Tuesday, August 18, 2026 • Duration 53:11

Twenty-five years ago, when Jacqueline Novogratz founded the impact investing nonprofit Acumen, she still had to prove that markets and entrepreneurship could work for people living in poverty — and help lift them out of it.

In the years since, that has moved from a relatively fringe approach to fighting poverty, to the center of global development efforts. Development finance institutions, philanthropies, and asset managers are all looking for investable opportunities — and speaking the language of impact.

But something else has happened to — or hasn’t happened — Novogratz said on Devex’s Theory of Change podcast. The institutions and individuals who could provide critical “patient capital” in the early, riskier phases when it is most effective, are not jumping in as needed.
For Novogratz, it points to a needed reckoning for a social impact sector that has grown up, but still hasn’t realized its potential.

“The capital that is available, and there's a lot of capital, is too expensive, it’s too risk averse, and as a result, we see a lot of talk and a lot of hand-wringing when we could be structuring that capital under the rubric of impact investing and really creating impact,” she says.

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Mark Dybul says this was never the plan for PEPFAR

Episode 9

Tuesday, August 11, 2026 • Duration 01:26:36

For over two decades, the U.S. government has been a lynchpin in the global fight against HIV, pouring billions of dollars into treatment, prevention, and health systems strengthening through initiatives like the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or PEPFAR.

Then came Elon Musk, the foreign aid freeze, and a disruptive set of reforms to U.S. global health programs under President Donald Trump’s “America First” Global Health Strategy. Against the backdrop of this tumultuous moment, the question remains: Was the old framework built to sustain solutions, or merely to sustain itself?

Mark Dybul, who led PEPFAR from 2006 to 2009, joined the Theory of Change podcast to deliver a blunt assessment of the legacy and current trajectory of foreign assistance. Reflecting on the evolution of former President George W. Bush’s signature global health initiative, Dybul addressed the sharp criticisms now driving a broader push for reform.

While acknowledging the lifesaving impact of past initiatives, Dybul pointed to a fundamental failure in long-term strategy: The shift toward true local ownership never fully materialized. In Dybul’s view, Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency surfaced uneasy truths about how the U.S. government has worked with countries to end the AIDS epidemic — and the opportunities that were missed along the way.

"The diagnosis was correct. That indictment was correct. I mean, to be honest, it turned my stomach that 25 years later we were spending the same amount of money as when I walked out the door. That wasn't the plan."

He also pushed back on projections that PEPFAR funding cuts could cause thousands of deaths, arguing that these underestimate governments’ ability to protect health programs — as well as opportunities for greater efficiency.As global health systems undergo a rapid overhaul, Dybul argues that the next 12 to 18 months represent a critical window. They must either adapt to a model centered on country sovereignty, local innovation, and mutual economic partnership, or risk watching the entire architecture collapse.

How Kakenya Ntaiya turned pain into progress

Episode 8

Tuesday, July 28, 2026 • Duration 01:02:33

Philanthropists and global development donors have made a lot of promises about supporting local leaders and community-based organizations. But their insistence on finding scalable models might be getting in the way of a simpler achievement: helping people.

Kakenya Ntaiya is a one-woman case study in persistence.

As a girl in southwestern Kenya, she underwent the traditional Masaai practice of female genital mutilation — a precursor to marriage and motherhood.

But she negotiated with her father to stay in school, secured a scholarship to attend college in the United States, and used her education to scrutinize the very cultural practices that she — and the other women in her village — were born into.

As the founder of Kakenya’s Dream, a nonprofit organization, Ntaiya has returned to Kenya to open up spaces for discussion of cultural taboos — and educational opportunities for thousands of girls.

Ntaiya joined the Theory of Change podcast to share her experiences navigating complex community politics, pushing for cultural change, and confronting the blind spots in modern international philanthropy that get in the way of improving people’s lives.

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Jim Richardson believes we can still agree about US foreign aid

Episode 7

Tuesday, July 21, 2026 • Duration 01:13:04

U.S. foreign aid advocacy groups are soul-searching in the wake of the Trump administration’s dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development and deep cuts to U.S. foreign assistance.

Bipartisan support for U.S. aid programs crumbled quickly in the face of Elon Musk’s attack on the agency via the Department of Government Efficiency, and USAID’s legacy is now viewed through a starkly polarized political lens.

In the aftermath of that collapse, advocacy organizations are trying to regain their footing — including by hiring conservative political veterans into key roles.

Jim Richardson, a longtime congressional staffer and former aide to Mike Pompeo, coordinated one of the largest reorganization efforts in USAID’s history during Trump’s first term. He recently joined the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition — one of the most influential “soft power” advocacy groups in Washington, D.C. — as national outreach director.

He joined the Theory of Change podcast to discuss the future of U.S. development advocacy — and what it will take to rebuild support for aid programs.

"We have to really go back to the basics,” he said.

“Where does the U.S. government have a comparative advantage? What does the power of international assistance do? What can it do?”

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Ebere Okereke believes global health is about power

Episode 6

Tuesday, July 14, 2026 • Duration 01:29:56

Global health is entering a period of profound upheaval. As governments reassess foreign aid, donors rethink decades-old models, and African leaders push for greater ownership of their health systems, one question looms over the sector: Who should hold the power to shape global health?

Dr. Ebere Okereke is a prominent voice in that conversation. She joins Theory of Change for a wide-ranging conversation with Devex Senior Reporter Michael Igoe about the risks and opportunities of this massive global health shakeup.

"Everything's about power. Everything is about politics. But it's also about understanding what power you have," Okereke says.

She reflects on the consequences of the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development, the rise of bilateral health agreements, the promise of the Accra Reset, and why African governments must play a far greater role in defining and financing their own priorities.

At the same time — with disease outbreaks still testing national response systems — she cautions against retreating from global collaboration, arguing instead for a model that is "locally owned, regionally anchored, but remain[s] part of a global architecture."

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Why Rachel Kyte doesn't listen to climate polls

Episode 5

Tuesday, June 30, 2026 • Duration 57:26

Rachel Kyte has spent decades shaping global climate change policy — from the World Bank to the United Nations to the United Kingdom.

More than a decade since the signing of the Paris climate agreement, Kyte — the U.K. special representative for climate — is both inspired by how much has been done to tackle the climate crisis, and clear-eyed about the fact that it is not enough.

"It's joyful, tinged with deep sadness and regret,” she told Devex Senior Reporter Michael Igoe on the latest episode of Theory of Change.

Against the backdrop of a sweltering London Climate Action Week, Kyte outlined her vision for “financing climate.” That is a vision that stretches well beyond the narrower realm of “climate finance,” to include bolder transformations of trade, international relations, and public services.

"People want affordable electricity, they want clean air, they want clean water, they want protection against extreme heat, and they want flood control,” Kyte said.

"We have to be much better at taking the message to people and speaking with optimism and hope about why this is good for them,” she added.

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William Easterly still believes development is freedom

Episode 4

Tuesday, June 23, 2026 • Duration 59:09

Development economist William Easterly famously does not mince words about the disappointments of anti-poverty megaprojects and far-fetched foreign aid plans.

For much of his career, Easterly has taken aim at experts who export their visions onto other people’s countries and communities — drawing from his own experience as one of those very experts.

In his latest book, “Violent Saviors: The West’s Conquest of the Rest,” Easterly unearths the long history of what he calls “the development right of conquest,” a worldview that has sacrificed individual rights and agency at the altar of material gain. He traces the long-standing tension between those who pushed for development at all costs and the dissenting voices who resisted them.

In the fourth episode of Theory of Change, Easterly unpacks the implications of that history for contemporary development efforts. He reflects on what alternative approaches to improving human well-being might look like — and what role aid institutions should play in pursuing them.

“There’s this technocratic illusion that you can reduce development to just technology and effectiveness of achieving measurable gains and these technical indicators of well-being,” he tells Devex Senior Reporter Michael Igoe.

“I think we all realize deep down the fantasy of keeping things purely technocratic is really a fantasy, that there really is a whole other dimension,” Easterly says.

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Gayle Smith on the next fight for foreign aid

Episode 3

Tuesday, June 16, 2026 • Duration 01:06:13

U.S. foreign aid is undergoing one of the most tumultuous transformations in its history.

The Department of Government Efficiency’s dismantling of USAID and transfer of its remaining programs to the State Department upended the U.S. global development industry. But it’s much more than a question of organizational charts and institutional responsibilities.

At stake are fundamental questions about America’s national interests, how the well-being of people in other countries should influence economic and trade policy, and the nature of public support for a long-term vision of development investment.

Gayle Smith has faced those questions from a variety of vantage points — senior director for development and democracy on the White House National Security Council, USAID administrator, CEO of the ONE Campaign.

In this episode of Theory of Change, she shares a candid assessment of where the fight for U.S. leadership in global development should go from here — and who should lead the charge.

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Seth Berkley has seen our pandemic future

Episode 2

Tuesday, June 9, 2026 • Duration 01:18:49

Much of Seth Berkley's career has been an attempt to answer the question: How do you get vaccines to people who aren’t well-served by an inequitable global health system?
When the COVID-19 outbreak exploded in early 2020, that question took on new urgency — along with a mind-spinning slew of political, economic, technological, and cultural complications.

Berkley, then the CEO of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, had a pretty good idea what was coming. As early as February 2020 he was warning publicly that if researchers were successful in developing a COVID-19 vaccine, lower-income countries would struggle to access them.

That is exactly what happened. It is also what led Berkley to help launch COVAX, the global initiative to deliver COVID-19 vaccines around the world.

In the wake of the pandemic, the relationships between politics, society, and vaccines have only grown more fraught.

One example: Secretary of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has personally intervened to block U.S. funding to Gavi.

Berkley, a physician and infectious disease epidemiologist, joined Devex’s Theory of Change podcast to discuss the lessons of the COVID-19 response, the long and complicated history of humanity’s relationships with vaccines, the incredible potential of new technologies — and the deeply troubling risks that some of them pose.

His new book is called “Fair Doses: An Insider's Story of the Pandemic and the Global Fight for Vaccine Equity.”

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Theory of Change – Details, episodes & analysis

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