Summer is supposed to be the quiet season. It was anything but...
In this first episode: the two weeks where the market broke, got a head-fake on oil, then round-tripped all the way to record highs on the back of a weak jobs report. My read on rates and oil. And the part almost nobody translates, what all of it actually means for MENA.
In this episode:
- The round trip: the worst Dow day since April 2025, then six straight sessions to records
- Why a jobs print of minus 23,000 sent stocks higher, not lower
- My call on rates (no hike this year) and the one risk I'm actually watching: oil
- MENA's very different market: the MAGNiTT Tech Index down 4.6% in July, with no AI names to ride the trade
- H1 venture: funding down 22%, deal count down 41% to a multi-year low, and why the money masks the real story
- Regional capital stepped up as international pulled back, and why the UAE's headline number hides real concentration
- Three questions I'm carrying into the second half
By the numbers:
- S&P 500 +3.58% on the week, a record close; Nasdaq +5.19%
- Brent crude −7.29%
- MENA H1: $1.35B funding (−22% YoY), 214 deals (−41% YoY)
- Two mega-deals took 36% of all H1 capital