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Explore every episode of the podcast The Unknown Knowns

Dive into the complete episode list for The Unknown Knowns. Each episode is cataloged with detailed descriptions, making it easy to find and explore specific topics. Keep track of all episodes from your favorite podcast and never miss a moment of insightful content.

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TitlePub. DateDuration
Degrading Tomorrow's Dataset: How Erasing History Shapes the Future14 oct. 202600:28:13

What happens when we erase the parts of history that don't fit the stories we want to tell?

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores how the preservation, distortion and deliberate erasure of history shape not only our understanding of the past, but also what we consider possible in the future. From the ancient Egyptian pharaoh Hatshepsut, whose legacy was deliberately obscured, to modern information environments, she examines how historical narratives influence perceptions of legitimacy, shape behaviour and determine which futures we consider possible.

She also considers what this means for intelligence professionals and the age of AI: how do we remain objective when evidence challenges the narratives we want to believe? And as AI increasingly relies on the information we choose to preserve, what happens when we lose not just facts, but the reasoning, context and dissent behind them? Because preserving history isn't simply about understanding the past. It's about protecting our ability to make informed decisions today and keeping possibilities open for tomorrow.

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Why Struggle Makes Us Better Problem-Solvers | Figure-It-Out-Ology (Part 2) by Dr Angela Lewis07 oct. 202600:18:01

What makes some people look at an unfamiliar problem and think, I can figure this out?


In Part II of Figure-It-Out-Ology, Dr Angela Lewis explores the psychology behind our ability to navigate challenges we don’t yet know how to solve, from self-efficacy and resilient self-talk to productive struggle, identity and the experiences that teach us to trust our own ability to adapt.

She also considers what this means in the age of AI: when answers are increasingly easy to obtain, could removing too much friction also remove valuable opportunities to learn? And what can parents, teachers and leaders do to help others develop the confidence and capability to find their own way forward? Because sometimes the most valuable thing we gain from solving a difficult problem isn’t the answer, it’s the evidence that we can solve difficult problems.


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How Experts Think When They Don’t Know the Answer | Figure-It-Out-Ology (Part 1) by Dr Angela Lewis25 sept. 202600:17:14

What do you do when you don’t know the answer? We tend to think of expertise as having the answers. But what about knowing what to do when you don’t?


In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores what she calls “figure-it-out-ology”: the ability to recognise the limits of what you know and still find a way forward. From intelligence targeting to Hawaiian sea turtles, Angela examines how experts learn to see what others might miss, identify the gaps that actually matter, know where knowledge lives, and adapt when the usual playbook no longer fits. Because sometimes the most valuable skill isn’t knowing the answer – it’s knowing how to figure it out.


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Know Your BATNA18 sept. 202600:20:52

What is your best alternative if the deal in front of you falls through?


In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores BATNA, or Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement. This negotiation concept offers a useful framework for decision-making far beyond the negotiating table.


Using stories ranging from a heavily discounted necklace in a Pakistani souq to job offers, university choices and organisational decisions, Angela examines how anchoring, sunk costs, loss aversion and status quo bias can distort our judgement.


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Rocky Road and Roller Skates: Complexity Theory09 sept. 202600:22:24

What happens when the system you're trying to understand keeps changing?


In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores complexity theory and the difference between complicated systems and complex adaptive systems. Using a childhood story about roller skates, a broken arm and a hospital waiting room, she explains how people, organisations, markets and adversaries adapt to one another and change the environments they operate in. Angela also explores feedback loops, emergence, tipping points and the Cynefin framework, including the value of “probe, sense, respond” when prediction is not enough. Complexity does not mean anything can happen; it means the system gets a vote.


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#ComplexityTheory #IntelligenceAnalysis #DecisionMaking #Leadership #CriticalThinking #Intelligence #Tradecraft

Over the Hedge: Bayesian Reasoning and the Art of Changing Your Mind02 sept. 202600:28:21

What happens when the world changes but your mental model does not?


In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores Bayesian reasoning through the unlikely lens of the 2006 animated film Over the Hedge. When a group of woodland animals discovers that a giant hedge has appeared across their familiar environment, they are forced to confront a problem that intelligence professionals, leaders and decision makers face every day: how do you respond when new evidence challenges what you thought you knew?


Angela examines the difference between stubbornly clinging to an outdated assessment and overreacting to a single dramatic development. Bayesian thinking offers a middle ground, helping us update our beliefs in proportion to the evidence rather than abandoning the entire map every time something unexpected appears.


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Beyond Vibes: Why Structure Is What Makes Analysis Trustworthy26 août 202600:28:24

What makes analysis trustworthy? It is not simply the quality of the information or the confidence of the analyst. It is the quality of the thinking that connects evidence to judgement.


In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores the role of structured analytic techniques in making reasoning more transparent and easier to challenge. From questioning key assumptions and generating alternative explanations to identifying inconsistencies and testing competing hypotheses, structure can help analysts avoid becoming trapped by the first explanation that fits.


But structure has its own risks. Techniques can become performative, with organisations focusing on completing the process rather than genuinely challenging their thinking. The episode considers why the right question is not simply which technique to use but what could go wrong with our thinking and which approach is best suited to exposing that weakness.


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It's Hard Not to Be Romantic About Baseball19 août 202600:41:29

What can baseball teach us about intelligence analysis?

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis turns to the world of baseball and the story of the Oakland Athletics to explore how data, strategy and human judgement interact when outcomes remain uncertain.

Using Moneyball as a starting point, Angela examines the difference between improving the probability of success and actually controlling the outcome. Data can reveal patterns, challenge assumptions and help us make better decisions, but it cannot eliminate uncertainty or account for everything that happens when humans enter the equation.

The same principle applies far beyond sport. Intelligence professionals, leaders and decision makers can use information to improve their decisions, but they still have to operate in environments where unexpected events, human behaviour and chance can change the outcome.


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Cornfield Economics12 août 202600:22:57

In this episode, Dr Angela Lewis explores what happens when intelligence concepts leave the classroom and start showing up in everyday life. Angela explains why experts can recognise underlying patterns across very different situations, while others can struggle to apply a concept outside the context in which they learned it. The real challenge is not memorising concepts like confirmation bias, groupthink or bounded rationality. It is recognising them when they appear in unfamiliar places and developing better mental models using intelligence tradecraft as a broader way of navigating human judgement.


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#Intelligence #CriticalThinking #CognitiveBias #Judgment #DecisionMaking

The Art of the Jedi Mind Trick (Part 2)06 août 202600:28:56

Where is the line between influence and manipulation and how do you know when you've crossed it?


In Part 2 of this series, Dr Angela Lewis moves from theory to practice, exploring how influence works in the real world and the ethical questions it raises. She examines why intent alone is not enough, how context shapes perception and why the most effective influence often leaves people feeling they made the decision themselves. Rather than offering simple rules, Angela provides a practical framework for recognising ethical influence, avoiding manipulation and becoming more aware of the techniques that shape decisions every day.


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#Leadership #CriticalThinking #Psychology #Influence

The Art of the Jedi Mind Trick (Part 1)30 juil. 202600:17:19

What separates persuasion from manipulation? Is there a clear line, or do most forms of influence exist somewhere in between?


In Part 1 of this two-part series, Dr Angela Lewis explores the psychology and ethics of influence through an unforgettable story about a couple who both tried to end their relationship without ever having an honest conversation. From there, she unpacks the broad spectrum of influence, from education and advocacy to negotiation, collaboration and manipulation. Drawing on philosophy, psychology and intelligence tradecraft, Angela examines why influence is an essential part of leadership and intelligence work, why manipulation is so difficult to define and why transparency and agency may be the key differences between ethical influence and something more problematic.


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#IntelligenceAnalysis #Leadership #CriticalThinking #Psychology #DecisionMaking #Influence

Intelligence 101-ish (Part 3): Turning Chicken into Beef22 juil. 202600:13:44

The Intelligence Cycle has shaped intelligence analysis for decades. But what if it only tells part of the story?


In the final episode of the Intelligence 101-ish series, Dr Angela Lewis explores why intelligence is better understood as a dynamic system than a linear process. Using an unforgettable cooking disaster as a metaphor, Angela explains why following the steps is not the same as understanding how the whole system works.


This concluding episode challenges one of intelligence's most familiar models and offers a fresh way of thinking about complexity, decision-making and professional tradecraft.


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#Intelligence101 #DecisionMaking #Leadership

Intelligence 101-ish (Part 2): Pay Attention to the Signs15 juil. 202600:16:48

How do intelligence professionals turn scattered information into something decision makers can actually use?


In Part 2 of the Intelligence 101-ish series, Dr Angela Lewis introduces one of the most influential frameworks in intelligence analysis: the Intelligence Cycle. From planning and collection to analysis, dissemination and feedback, Angela explains how intelligence moves from a simple question to an informed assessment. Along the way, she explores why intelligence is not about certainty or prediction but about reducing uncertainty, evaluating competing explanations and helping leaders make better decisions.


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#Intelligence101 #IntelligenceAnalysis #CriticalThinking #DecisionMaking #Leadership #ProfessionalDevelopment

Intelligence 101-ish (Part 1): Power Ballads Spell Trouble08 juil. 202600:16:08

What is intelligence? Contrary to popular belief, it has very little to do with spies, secrets or James Bond.


In the first episode of a new three-part series, Dr Angela Lewis explores what intelligence actually is, why experts still debate its definition and why its real purpose is not collecting information but helping people make better decisions under conditions of uncertainty.


Drawing on everything from Michael Bay's Armageddon (1998) to corporate security and everyday leadership, Angela explains the difference between data, information, research, and intelligence. She explores why intelligence is not about predicting the future with certainty but about creating decision advantage when the future is unclear.


Whether you're an intelligence professional, a business leader or simply curious about how better decisions are made, this episode provides a practical introduction to one of the world's most misunderstood disciplines.


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#CriticalThinking #DecisionMaking #Leadership #IntelligenceAnalysis

When the Point Gets in the Way of the Point01 juil. 202600:18:09

What if the examples we remember most are distracting us from the lesson they were meant to teach?

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores how people learn, why certain ideas stick and what separates genuine expertise from simple familiarity.

Starting with an unexpected piece of student feedback, Angela examines concepts such as salience, schema formation and transfer, explaining why we often struggle to recognise familiar patterns when they appear in unfamiliar settings. From Marvel films and intelligence failures to leadership challenges and everyday decision-making, she explores how the same cognitive dynamics show up across very different contexts.


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#CriticalThinking #Leadership #DecisionMaking #IntelligenceAnalysis

The Power of Asking Why | Lessons from the CIA with Darrell Blocker PART 224 juin 202600:30:55

In Part 2 of their conversation, Dr Angela Lewis is joined once again by former CIA officer Darrell Blocker to explore the habits and mindsets that underpin effective judgment. Building on their earlier discussion about intuition and expertise, Angela and Darrell examine the role of curiosity, observation and critical questioning in intelligence work and everyday decision-making. Drawing on stories from nearly three decades in the CIA, Darrell explains why the simple question "why?" remains one of the most powerful tools available to analysts, leaders and anyone seeking to understand people more deeply.


The conversation explores pattern recognition, human behaviour, non-verbal communication and the importance of developing systems that help us think more clearly under pressure. Angela and Darrell also discuss the relationship between experience and instinct, the value of self-awareness and why expertise is often the result of disciplined curiosity rather than natural talent.


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#Leadership #DecisionMaking #IntelligenceAnalysis #ProfessionalDevelopment

Trusting Your Instincts | Lessons from the CIA with Darrell Blocker PART 117 juin 202600:37:10

In this two-part series, Dr Angela Lewis is joined by Darrell Blocker, a former CIA officer with 28 years of experience in intelligence operations and leadership.


In part 1, they will explore one of the most misunderstood concepts in professional decision-making: intuition. Is it simply a gut feeling, or is it something built through years of experience, observation and training? Drawing on stories from intelligence work, Angela and Darrell discuss how professionals develop pattern recognition, why expertise often feels instinctive and how trusted mental frameworks help people make effective decisions in uncertain environments. They examine the relationship between experience and judgment, the importance of learning what "normal" looks like and why some of the best decisions happen before we can fully explain them.


This conversation offers valuable insights for anyone interested in leadership, intelligence, decision-making and the development of professional expertise.


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#Leadership #DecisionMaking #CriticalThinking #IntelligenceAnalysis #ProfessionalDevelopment

17% Processing Power10 juin 202600:19:16

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores a deceptively simple question: why do some messages land while others fail?

Drawing on intelligence tradecraft and organisational psychology, Angela examines how audience, context, and professional culture shape the reception of information. From briefing senior executives to building credibility in new environments, she explores why effective communication is about more than transmitting information. It is about creating understanding.


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#Communication #Leadership #IntelligenceAnalysis #ProfessionalDevelopment

Thinking in Systems03 juin 202600:18:48

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores why some of the most persistent problems resist simple solutions.


Rather than focusing on individual events or decisions, Angela examines how systems shape behaviour, outcomes and risk. From organisational challenges to geopolitical crises, she explains how feedback loops, incentives and interconnected relationships can create patterns that are difficult to see when we focus only on immediate causes.


The episode explores why well-intentioned interventions can produce unexpected consequences and how adopting a systems perspective can help leaders, analysts and decision-makers better understand complexity. By stepping back from individual events and examining the broader environment, we can often identify the forces truly driving change.


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#SystemsThinking #Leadership #DecisionMaking

Tiny Orange Paws27 mai 202600:10:46

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis examines how assumptions shape interpretation and why slowing down the decision-making process can often reveal what people initially miss. The episode draws on concepts to explain how analysts can structure information to improve understanding rather than simply delivering facts. Angela also explores the growing role of AI in analytical environments and why context, sequencing and understanding the consumer remain essential human skills in intelligence work.


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#Leadership #CriticalThinking #DecisionMaking #IntelligenceAnalysis #AI

Intellectual Humility vs. Imposter Syndrome15 mai 202600:13:51

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores the difference between imposter syndrome and intellectual humility and why the distinction matters in intelligence, leadership and decision-making environments.


Drawing on psychology research, intelligence tradecraft and personal experience, Angela examines why high performers often question themselves most and why uncertainty is not always a sign of weakness. The episode explores rigor, judgment and the challenge of making decisions without perfect information.


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#Leadership #DecisionMaking #CriticalThinking #IntelligenceAnalysis #ProfessionalDevelopment

The Mint Strategy: Staying Resilient When Your Brain Wants to Tap Out13 mai 202600:29:04

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores what happens to judgment and decision-making under sustained pressure and how resilience can be built before cognitive overload takes hold.


Using the “mint strategy” as a framework, Angela examines how small interventions can interrupt stress spirals and improve analytical thinking in high-pressure environments. The episode explores cognitive resilience, premature closure, team dynamics and the systems that help people think more clearly when the stakes are high. This is a practical discussion about stress, judgment and the importance of building structures that support better thinking before pressure starts to narrow it.


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#Leadership #DecisionMaking #CriticalThinking #Resilience #IntelligenceAnalysis

The Sound of Silence07 mai 202600:18:06

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores the role silence plays in leadership, analysis and decision-making.


From uncomfortable meetings to high-pressure intelligence environments, Angela examines why silence is often misunderstood and how it can reveal uncertainty and hidden assumptions. The episode explores when silence creates space for better thinking and when it becomes avoidance that damages teams and decision-making.


This is a short reflection on communication, judgment and the signals people miss when nobody speaks.


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#Leadership #DecisionMaking #CriticalThinking #Communication #IntelligenceAnalysis

The Politics of Dissent29 avr. 202600:20:05

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores one of the most difficult challenges facing intelligence professionals and leaders: how to tell uncomfortable truths inside systems that may not want to hear them.


Using the relationship between Elphaba and Glinda in Wicked as a framework, Angela examines two very different approaches to dissent: speaking truth from outside the system and influencing change from within it. She explores why both roles matter and why knowing when to challenge power directly versus when to work strategically inside existing structures is a critical professional skill.


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#Leadership #DecisionMaking #OrganisationalCulture #RiskManagement

The Value of Training22 avr. 202600:10:17

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis is joined by Sibylline’s Associate Director of Product Operations, Jack Nott-Bower, to explore why professional development is often overlooked in intelligence teams and why that creates long-term risks.


They examine the difficult transition from analyst to leader, why many high performers become bottlenecks after promotion and how training can help leaders build stronger teams rather than carrying the workload themselves. The discussion also explores how AI is reshaping analytical workflows, why judgment remains irreplaceable and how organisations can develop leaders who scale capability across entire teams.


The episode also highlights Sibylline’s upcoming in-person training event in San Francisco on 12 May, focused on leadership, judgment, language and authority in the age of AI.


Learn more about this in-person workshop here: https://sibylline.co.uk/leadership-for-intel-professionals-new-managers-judgment-language-and-authority-in-the-age-of-ai/


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#Leadership #ProfessionalDevelopment #IntelligenceAnalysis #AI #DecisionMaking #FutureOfWork

Flow! The Hidden Advantage of Deep Focus15 avr. 202600:10:41

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores the concept of “flow” — the state of deep, immersive focus where high-quality judgment and insight emerge.


Drawing on personal experience and cognitive science, she explains why modern work environments often prevent us from reaching this state, and why that comes at a cost to decision-making. The episode breaks down what flow actually is, why it matters for intelligence professionals and leaders, and how it can be deliberately engineered through clarity, challenge, and protected focus.


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This is not about productivity. It’s about thinking better in a world that constantly fragments attention — and why creating the conditions for flow is essential for anyone working in complexity.

The Algorithm Is Not Your Analyst08 avr. 202600:15:03

AI can draft, summarise, and sound authoritative in seconds.


But it doesn’t understand what it’s saying.


In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores the real role of AI in intelligence and decision-making—and where it quietly goes wrong. From reinforcing flawed assumptions to projecting confidence without competence, generative AI is not a neutral tool. It is a pattern engine that reflects and scales human bias.


The core role of the analyst hasn’t changed: making meaning under uncertainty, calibrating risk, and owning consequences. What has changed is speed—and with it, the margin for error.


This episode examines why prompt discipline matters, how unexamined assumptions get amplified, and why fluency should never be mistaken for insight. AI can expand your thinking. It cannot replace your judgment.


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#AI #Leadership #Intelligence #Risk

The Bias Blind Spot31 mars 202600:21:13

Before decisions are made, something else is already at work: bias.


In this premier episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr. Angela Lewis explores the hidden role bias plays in shaping judgment, especially for intelligence professionals, leaders, and decision-makers operating under pressure. Far from being a flaw, bias is a feature of how we think—a set of cognitive shortcuts that help us move quickly through complexity. But when left unexamined, those same shortcuts can quietly distort perception, reinforce false certainty, and close off better alternatives.


Drawing on psychology, intelligence tradecraft, and real-world examples—from the Titanic to modern decision environments—this episode unpacks why awareness alone isn’t enough, why expertise can actually increase vulnerability to bias, and how the most dangerous bias of all may be the illusion of objectivity.


This episode sets the foundation for the series: moving beyond information toward insight, and turning instinct into disciplined judgment.


Because the goal isn’t to eliminate bias—it’s to think well in spite of it.


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