In this episode of The Synopsis we read our latest Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.

This weeks memo is "Investing is Just Answering a Series of Questions: Explaining the Reverse DCF"

Memo Link:  https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/investing-is-just-answering-a-series

Recomended Article Podcast on Hurdle Rates: (Spotify, Apple) 

Or read it here: How Pies, Proofs, and Punch Cards Hold Key Insights into the Cost of Equity

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Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro and Updates

(1:27) –Memo Reading Starts

(19:19) – Check out this Memo on Hurdle Rates and the "Right" Discount Rate

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Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more. 

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here. 

Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.

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Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this company episode on CoStar Group, Speedwell Research draws on their extensive research report to cover everything from Founder Andy Florance's entrance into the real estate data space from his Princeton dorm room to becoming the dominant real estate data and analytics provider. Florance not only beat out competition in the commerical data space, but succesfully entered several new markets including taking a fledging apartments listing platform and driving it to the #1 spot. Today CoStar is looking to do it again with Homes.com, while still aggresviely expanding their growing array of internet real estate businesses. Learn the inner workings of the real estate data and markeplace business, as well as how a company succesfully expanded far beyond their original core product and continues to find new markets to fight after. We hope you enjoy!   

Company Description: Real estate data & analytics provider and operator of real estate marketplace.

Purchase the full CoStar Group Report here. 

More details on our CoStar Group Report  here. 

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all of our Reports here.  

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Show Notes

Section 1: History and Background

(0:00) — Intro

(2:45) — High Level CoStar Overview

(6:15) — Founding History Starts

(16:52) — IPOing 

(26:54) —  2008 Financial Crisis 

(35:40) — Lawsuits and LoopNet 

(49:44) — Apartments.com acquisition

(59:46) — Xcelligent Lawsuit and the Last of the Direct Competitors

(1:04:56) — Closing Out History and S&P 500 Addition

*

Section 2: The Business 

(1:07:35) — Business Section Overview 

(1:21:30) — Multifamily and Apartments.com Business

(1:29:00) — Residential Overview

(1:30:43) — Loopnet Overview

(1:34:07) — Other Businesses/ Wrapping Up Business Section

*

Section 3: TAM and Industry

(1:43:13) — TAM Overview

(1:50:29) —  How the Residential Industry Works

(2:01:15) — Multifamily Industry

*

Section 4: Competition

(2:08:53) — CoStar Competitors

(2:15:35) — Why Does CoStar Win

(2:23:48) — Why LoopNet Wins

(2:25:30) — Zillow and Apartments.com Competition

(2:34:03) — Homes.com vs Zillow

*

Section 5: Growth Opportunites, Capital Allocation, and Valuation

(2:40:45) — International

(2:46:38) — ROIC, Free Cash Flow, 

(2:54:06) — Dilution and Capital Allocation

(3:00:33) — Valuation

(3:05:45) — Risks

(3:10:50) — Bull / Bear Summary

(3:15:50) — Conclusion

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Purchase the full CoStar Group Report here. 

More details on our CoStar Group Report  here. 

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all Reports here.  

*~*

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC 

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in Costar Group. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in CoStar Group. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ 

In this wide spanning interview episode we talk with Best Anchor Stocks' Leandro on investment philosophy, quality businesses, Nintendo, Deere, Copart, Hermes, and much more! 

Find out more about Best Anchor Stocks here, follow Leandro on Twitter @Invesquotes  and Best Anchor Stocks Podcast can be found here.

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(1:16) What Characterizes a Good Business? 

(6:15) Multiples, Implied Valuation, Reverse DCF 

(26:00) Great Companies and Valuation, Copart, Constellation Software 

(35:32) Nintendo and Deere, Transitioning Business Models 

(49:01) Hermes, Durability, Ferrari, Rolex, and Luxury  

(1:15:12) A Good Business versus a Good Investment 

(1:18:05) Book Recommendations 

(1:22:58) Conculsion

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Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here

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Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

On this episode we talk Floor & Decor, Copart, and their 1Q24 results. 

Check out our full company episodes on Floor & Decor and Copart below if you haven't already! 

Floor & Decor Company Episode:  Apple  Spotify

Copart Company Episode:  Apple  Spotify

(Note Copart's latest quarter is fiscal 2Q, but ends Feb. 27)

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(0:47) Floor & Decor Update 

(17:58) Copart Update 

(39:06) Conclusion

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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!  

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here

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Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

On this episode we talk about Grab, WeChat, Meituan, X, and all things about SuperApps. Our conversation builds off of a recent memo on SuperApps, which you can read here: WeChat, Meituan, and Grab: What is a SuperApp and Why You Will Fail Building One

**Please note we had issues with the orginal sound recording and had to use AI tools to adjust the sound volume, however it adversely impacted the sound quality. We apologize for this and will try to avoid this happening in the future.** 

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(0:51) SuperApps Intro, Cross Selling, Sea Limited's Free Fire 

(8:54) What a SuperApp Aims to Do 

(13:59) WeChat History and What Was Different About It 

(20:41) Why no Mini-programs or SuperApps in the U.S.?

(23:28) Meituan's and Grab's SuperApp; Twitter/X's Ambitions

(41:03) The Physical World's "SuperApps", Sears, E-Commerce Grocery

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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!  

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here

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Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

On this episode we talk about Meta, Evolution, and their 1Q24 results. Check out our full company episodes on Meta and Evolution below if you haven't already! 

Meta Company Episode: Apple, Spotify

Evolution Company Episode: Apple, Spotify

A written update on Meta's 1Q24 results can be found here. 

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(1:06) Evolution Business Update

(16:06) Meta Business Update 

(48:37) Conclusion  

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!  

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here

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Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.

This weeks memo is a business update on Meta. 

Memo Link:  https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/meta-1q24-business-update

Purchase our Meta Research Report here.

Become a full Speedwell Member and gain access to the updated reverse DCF and Meta Report here. 

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Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(1:04) –Memo Reading Starts

(17:17) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more. 

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here. 

Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.

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Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

 

On this episode we talk about RH and provide an update with their business. Check out our full company episode on RH if you haven't already! (Links below)

RH Company Episode: Apple, Spotify

A Written Update on RH from 1H23 can be found here. 

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(1:01) Announcement

(2:05) RH Business Update 

(30:44) Conclusion  

 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!  

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here

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Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.

This weeks memo is "The Investment Matching Principle: How the Risk/ Return Profile Connects to Diversification" 

Memo Link:  https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/wechat-meituan-and-grab-superapp 

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Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(1:07) –Memo Reading Starts

(14:43) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more. 

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here. 

Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

 

On this episode we talk about two Speedwell Memos. The first memo is titled "Priced to Outperform Perfection: The Home Depot Circa 1999" and covers how to think about valuation and what is priced into a stock. 

The second memo is If the Model Doesn't Work, Don't Fix It: A Look at Traditional Apparel Retailers, Zara, and Shein and covers the business operations of three different retail models. 

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(0:45) First Memo on What was Priced into Home Depot's Valuation circa 1999

(22:07) Second Memo on Traditional Retailers, Zara, and Shein

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!  

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here

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Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.

This weeks memo is an exceprt from our Evolution Research Report. 

Memo Link:  https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/evolution-business-history 

Become a Speedwell Member or Purchase the Evolution Single Report Here

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(1:18) –Memo Reading Starts

(13:40) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more. 

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here. 

Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.

This weeks memo is "The Investment Matching Principle: How the Risk/ Return Profile Connects to Diversification" 

Memo Link:  https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/the-investment-matching-principle 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(1:07) –Memo Reading Starts

(13:05) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more. 

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here. 

Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

On this episode we talk about a recent memo, What You Don't Know About Sell-side Price Targets

We cover several factors that influence a sell-side analysts' recommendations and explain that price targets don't mean what you think they do.

We hope you enjoy! 

For full access to all of our in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here. 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(1:19) Memo Overview 

(4:51) What Does the Sell-side Do? 

(10:12) Tech Bubble Era Sell-Side Analyst

(15:14) What is a Price Target and Why it Doesn't Make Sense

(20:19) Biggest Unknown Factor that Influences Price Targets 

(26:12) Carrer Risk and Other Recommendation Factors 

(30:25) Why Sell-side likes to Stay in Consensus

(34:44) What could be different about Sell-side research 

(30:09) Closing Thoughts 

(40:20) Concluding Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!  

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here

*-*-*-

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Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. All views expressed on this podcast do not represent the views of the companies podcast contributors may have worked for. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this company episode on Coupang, Speedwell Research draws on their extensive research report to cover everything from Founder Bom Kim's early foray into commerce with a Groupon-like business to an epic restructuring of the company just weeks away from IPOing that left them on the path to become the leading South Korean ecommerce business. Learn about how the South Korean competitve enviroment developed differently, as well as how Coupang managed to dominant after a capital-intensive pivot. We hope you enjoy!   

Company Description: Dominant South Korean ecommerce provider with fully integrated logistics operation.

Purchase the full Coupang Report here. 

More details on our Coupang Report here. 

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all Reports here. 

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Show Notes

Section 1: History and Background

(0:00) Intro

(1:55) Coupang Business Overview

(2:56) Start History 

(6:13) Groupon Business Model, Differing Value Props 

(17:10) Pulling the IPO and Pivoting

(30:32) - Second Attempt at an IPO

*~*

Section 2: TAM and Competition

(31:44) TAM and Korean Retail Market Overview

(39:13) Market Share and GMV Estimates

(42:52) Competition, Consumer Preferences Served

(47:47) Flywheel 

(56:37) Coupang Fresh Grocery 

(59:30) Spend per Buyer 

(1:01:18) Competitive Enviroment, Naver

*~*

Section 3: International and Other Bets

(1:27:17) Other Bets 

(1:28:31) Coupang Play

(1:31:56) Coupang Eats

(1:39:10) Coupang Pay

(1:42:25) International, Japan, Taiwan

(1:48:42) Farfetch

*~*

Section 4: Financials, Valuation, Risks 

(1:53:04) Financial Metrics

(2:00:00) Coupang Steady State Margins 

(2:04:03) Reverse DCF

(2:06:20) Bear Case, Bull Case, Risks

(2:13:58) Conclusion

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Purchase the full Coupang Report here. 

More details on our Coupang Report here. 

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all Reports here.  

 

Articles Mentioned

Speedwell’s Memo: Metaphor Malware: The Clumsy Thinking That Is Crippling Your Business Understanding

*~*

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC 

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in Coupang. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Coupang. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ 

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.

This weeks memo is "Balancing Risk and Return: The Simple Statistics of Investing" 

Memo Link:  https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/balancing-risk-and-return-the-simple 

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Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(1:33) –Memo Reading Starts

(9:23) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more. 

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here. 

Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.

This weeks memo is "Metaphor Malware: The Clumsy Thinking that is Crippling your Business Understanding"

Memo Link:  https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/metaphor-malware-the-clumsy-thinking 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(1:05) –Memo Reading Starts

(10:00) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more. 

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here. 

Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

On this episode we talk about a memo of ours on what the cost of equity is, and how investors can practicially contextualize the question. The memo we draw on in this episode is called "How Pies, Proofs, and Punch Cards Hold Key Insights into the Cost of Equity" and can be found here. 

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(0:45) How Much Money Should I Make for Risking my Capital? 

(1:32) The Munchausen Trilemma

(3:48) Relative vs Absolute Investors 

(11:38) How "Absolute Investor" is a Misnomer

(15:25) The Punch Card Idea and How it Relates to the Cost of Equity

(26:24) Conclusion

 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!  

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here

*-*-*-

Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.

This weeks memo is "If the Model Doesn't Work, Don't Fix It: A Look at Traditonal Apparel Retailers, Zara, and Shein"

Memo Link:  https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/if-the-model-doesnt-work-dont-fix

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(1:05) –Memo Reading Starts

(12:43) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more. 

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here. 

Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read an excerpt from our Constellation Software research report, covering their Business History. If you prefer to read instead of listening to this article, you can find access to it below. 

 Article Link: Speedwell Memos - Constellation Software Business History 

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Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro 

(1:13) – Article Reading Starts

(9:25) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase Constellation Research Report

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all of Speedwell’s Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more. 

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here. 

Speedwell's free newsletter can be found here.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in Constellation Software. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Constellation Software. This may change without notice.Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this company episode on Constellation Software, Speedwell Research draws on their extensive research report to cover everything from Mark Leonard's early insight into the quality of Vertical Market Software Businesses to their unique operating structure. Investors can learn not only about the software business, but also about how Constellation Software has created a conglomerate of hundreds of companies through an impressive multi-decade acquistion spree, all while keeping capital allocation discipline.  We hope you enjoy!   

Company Description: A decentralized and acquisitive conglomerate of Vertical Market Software Companies based out of Canada.

Purchase the full Constellation Software Report here. 

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all Reports here. 

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Show Notes

Section 1: History and Background

(0:00) Intro

(0:58) Constellation Software High-Level Business Description

(5:01) Mark Leonard History and Constellation Software Background 

(10:31) Constellation Software IPO 

*~*

Section 2: Vertical Market Software

(13:25) What is VMS and Competitive Advantages 

(20:37) Financial Model Benefits

*~*

Section 3: Corporate Structure and Revenue Segments 

(23:32) Six Groups 

(33:54) Revenue Segments and Context

(38:41) How SaaS Changes Things 

(44:29) Constellation Software Competitive Advantages

*~*

Section 4: Topicus and Lumine

(52:05) Topicus

(1:06:46) Lumine

*~*

Section 5: Capital Allocation, Valuation & Risks.

(1:08:37) Capital Deployment and Hurdle Rates 

(1:17:29) ROIC

(1:20:00) Risks 

(1:23:06) Bull/ Bear Case

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase the full Constellation Software Report here. 

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all Reports here.  

 

Articles Mentioned

Speedwell’s Memo: From Private to Public Markets: The Detrimental Impact of Investors’ Expectations

*~*

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC 

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in Constellation Software. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Constellation Software. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ 

 

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.

This weeks article is If You Don't Know What Game You're Playing, You Already Lost

Article Link:  https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/if-you-dont-know-what-game-youre

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(1:17) –Memo Reading Starts

(13:14) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more. 

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here. 

Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

On this episode we talk about a recent memo on how investors can influence businesses and what is difference between being a public versus private company. The memo we draw on is called "From Private to Public Markets: The Detrimental Impact of Investors' Expectations" and can be found here.  

We recently found out we have a *duplicate Spotify feed* and will be *removing* it this week. Please follow this correct Spotify feed  just called "The Synopsis" to keep getting our content!  

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(1:21) Two Extremes of Investing 

(6:49) Reflexivity, Difference Between Analyst and Operator 

(19:36) Risk Embedded in Assumptions were Too High, Illustration 

(23:57) The Role of Narrative 

(28:24) Conclusion

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!  

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here

*-*-*-

Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

*Important* If you listen on Spotify, make sure you follow us on this Spotify feed. We just became aware there was a duplicate feed, which we are disconnecting next week. 

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.

This weeks article is From Public to Private Markets: The Detrimental Impact of Investors' Expectations

Article Link:  https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/from-private-to-public-markets-the

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(1:20) –Memo Reading Starts

(20:52) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more. 

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here. 

Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our latest Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.

This weeks memo is "What You Don't Know About Sell-side analyst Price Targets"

Memo Link:  https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/what-you-dont-know-about-sell-side 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(1:19) –Memo Reading Starts

(20:38) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more. 

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here. 

Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

On our very first interview we talk with Mostly Borrowed Ideas in a wide spanning interview on Meta, Google, Microsoft, and investment decision quality. Mostly Borrowed Ideas writes a deep-dive on a publically traded company every month. You can find more out about him and his writings here. 

 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(2:37) Meta, Risks, Tiktok, ATT, Metaverse

(26:22) Google, Sundar Pichai, Capital Allocation

(33:52) Google Risks

(46:59) What is a Great Business? 

(59:19) Owners versus Managers

(1:08:45) Investment Process Improved through Writing

(1:18:57) Conclusion

 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Find out more about MBI at https://www.mbi-deepdives.com 

Buy Speedwell Meta Single Research Report 

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!  

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here

*-*-*-

Mentioned Links 

Speedwell's Memo on Wish

*-*-*-

Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

On this episode we talk about how investment risks could impact an investment thesis through the lens of Etsy and Meta. We provide a short "timeless" update on both companies as well. 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) Important Announcement

(0:41) Intro

(3:33) Etsy Value Prop, Issues, and Temu Read-through 

(16:41) Meta Risks and The One Thing Investors Needed To Be Sure Of 

(26:33) How to Gain Clarity with Meta Circa 2022 

(34:20) Conclusion

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Buy Meta Single Research Report 

Buy Etsy Single Research Report

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!  

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here

*-*-*-

Mentioned Links 

The Synopsis Meta Company Podcast (Apple, Spotify)

The Synopsis Etsy Company Podcast (Apple, Spotify) 

*-*-*-

Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read an excerpt from our 79 page Etsy Report, covering Etsy's Business History. If you prefer to read instead of listening to this article, you can find access to it below. 

 Article Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/etsy-business-history 

 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) – Important Announcement

(0:45) – Intro 

(1:36) – Article Reading Starts

(30:31) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase Etsy Research Report

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all of Speedwell’s Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more. 

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here. 

Speedwell's free newsletter can be found here.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

Charlie Munger talks about the Latticework of Mental Models and how having exposure to many different disciplines helps gain insight into problems. Key to connecting different disciplines though, is the metaphor. 

This week, on The Synopsis, we talk about our two Piton Network business philosophy pieces. The Piton Network is our attempt to create a metaphor that furthers investors and analysts understanding of business and strategy. 

Our first memo is The Piton Network: Decisions that Simultaneously Support and Limit the Future Decision Space. You can read it here. 

Our second memo is Meta-Optimizations: Knowing When a Business is Operating from Strength or Weakness. You can read it here. 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(1:00) What is a Piton

(4:21) Decision Clusters, Southwest

(11:03) Floor & Decor, Copy Cats, Lowes 

(17:53) Amazon vs Wal-Mart delivery 

(20:22) Jim McKelvey's Innovation Stack, Square vs Amazon 

(24:37) Pulling Out Pitons, Netflix 

(32:28) Ford vs Tesla, Complexity, Piton Network vs Value Network 

(43:35) Value of Metaphor

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to all of our in-depth research reports: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter: https://www.speedwellmemos.com 

Mentioned Links:

Speedwell's First Consumer Hierarchy of Preferences Memo

Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.

This weeks article is Meta-Optimizations: Knowing When a Business is Operating From Strength or Weakness

Article Link:  https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/meta-optimizations-knowing-when-a 

*Please note that this memo builds off a concept introduced early in The Piton Network: Decisions that Simultaneously Support and Limit the Future Decision Space. If you want to listen to this memo first, click here for Apple and here for Spotify links. 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(1:21) –Memo Reading Starts

(29:58) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more. 

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here. 

Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

This week on The Synopsis, we talk about a recent memo, "The Future of Ecommerce That Wasn’t: An In-depth Look into What Went Wrong with Wish".

In this conversation we talk about Wish and what lessons we cannot draw from their lack of success. We also talk about our LTV and financial analaysis, as well as what Wish's value prop was compared to other competitors. 

You can read the Full Memo here. 

You can become a full Speedwell Research Member here. 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(1:11) Memo background 

(4:09) Wish Pitch and Value Prop

(9:12) Putting Business Failure into Proper Context

(16:10) Growth vs Maintenece Marketing 

(25:14) LTV Analysis and Buyer Churn 

(30:42) What Happened to Wish 

(32:26) Main Lessons

(37:36) Conclusion

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to all of our in-depth research reports: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter: https://www.speedwellmemos.com 

Mentioned Links:

Chinese Ecommerce GMV Accounting Piece: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/accounting-insights-alibaba-jd-and 

Interview with Peter Szulczewski: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1LzKGJ0bNU 

Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

 

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below. There are several charts and excels in this memo that may be helpful to look at for more comprehensive understanding. 

This weeks article is The Future of Ecommerce That Wasn’t: An In-depth Look into What Went Wrong with Wish

Article Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/the-future-of-ecommerce-that-wasnt 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(1:04) - Housekeeping/ Upcoming

(1:38) –Memo Reading Starts

(29:46) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this podcast on Evolution, Speedwell Research draws on their 74-page report to cover everything from the company's inception experimenting with a single roulette wheel to a global business with 60%+ margins. Studying this extremely unique business will teach listeners about the importance of value chain positioning, using negotiating leverage, and how to maintain a very lucrative business in a highly competitive industry. Everyone says the house aways wins, but not in the online casino world where it is the supplier, and Evolution is the largest supplier. We hope you enjoy!   

Company Description: B2B supplier in the online casino space specializing in the live casino vertical.

Purchase the full Evolution Report here. 

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all Reports here. 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

Section 1: History and Background

(0:00) Intro

(2:20) Evolution High-Level Business Description

(5:01) Evolution History and Background 

*~*

Section 2: TAM and Market Differences 

(35:32) TAM Overview

(40:05) Grey and Black Markets

(44:38) Aggregators

(53:35) North America Regulation 

*~*

Section 3: Business Model

(1:00:59) How they Make Money 

(1:05:07) How Evolution Differentiates

*~*

Section 4: Competition

(1:17:55) Competition Overview

(1:22:33) Playtech

(1:31:42) Vertical Integration

(1:39:10) Pragmatic 

*~*

Section 5: Capital Allocation, Valuation & Risks.

(1:47:30) Capital Allocation and ROIC

(1:51:35) Acquisitions and Slot Business

(1:59:37) Risks 

(2:04:47) Valuation

(2:06:39) Bull/ Bear Case

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase Speedwell's EVO Report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/12/19/evolution/ 

Become a full Speedwell Research Member here: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/ 

 

Articles Mentioned

Speedwell’s Memo Introducing the Piton Idea: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-piton-network-decisions-that

 

 

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC 

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in Evolution. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Evolution. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ 

In this episode of The Synopsis we read a Speedwell Research memo from our backlog. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below. 

This weeks article is 10 Lessons from Copart's 40 Years in Business: Learning from Willis Johnson and Jay Adair

Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/10-lessons-from-coparts-40-years

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(0:55) – Memo Reading Starts

(20:30) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Purchase Speedwell's Copart Report Here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/05/22/copart-deep-dive/ 

Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

This week on The Synopsis, we talk about a recent memo, "Google Shut the Door on Competition, AI Swung it Back Open".

We cover some old threats to Google's Search dominance and how AI catalyzes them. This show is in our Dialogue format, which you can expect more of in the coming future. We hope you enjoy! 

You can read the Full Memo Here. 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(0:51) Memo background 

(3:10) Product Encroachment

(9:12) Two Way Google Historically Competed

(11:05) Form Function Changes

(15:03) AI Threats and How AI is Changing Things 

(16:42) Facebook's Platform Shift 

(24:40) AI risks to Sponsored Link Business 

(28:06) Todd Combs, Charlie Munger, What Can Investors Assume? 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Buy Speedwell Research's Meta Report: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/01/17/meta-platforms-deep-dive/ 

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to all of our research reports: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

 

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of this writing, one or more contributers to the podcast has a position in Google. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Google. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

On this episode we talk about 2Q24 earnings for Floor & Decor ($FND) and Evolution ($EVO). For both companies we have longer, in-depth podcast episodes which you can listen to below. These are evergreen and give a lot of more details on each companies' history, business, industry, and competitve dynamics. 

Listen to the Floor & Decor Company Podcast Episode here: Apple, Spotify 

Listen to the Evolution Company Podcast Episode here: Apple, Spotify

For full access to all of our in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here. You can also buy indiviudal reports here. 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

Evolution Update

(1:09) Evolution Discussion Starts

(5:24) Biggest Payout Ever 

(10:16) Capital Allocation, Galaxy Gaming Acquistion

(19:02) Georgia Strike 

(24:32) Unregulated Markets and KYC 

(27:43) Wrapping Up Evolution Commentary 

Floor & Decor Update

(29:52) Floor & Decor Overview 

(30:23) LL Flooring Background and Bankruptcy

(33:10) Macro Impacts 

(37:14) Inventory Levels, Gross Margins 

(40:04) The "Philosophical" Question on Growth and when to Get Concerned 

(48:03) Spartan Acquistion and Pro Business 

(51:15) Cash Balances, Bad Guidance, Peers Struggling, Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!  

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here

*-*-*-

Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below. 

This weeks article is Google Shut the Door on Competition, AI Swung it Back Open

Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/google-shut-the-door-on-competition

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(0:44) - Housekeeping/ Upcoming

(1:51) –Memo Reading Starts

(28:16) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

At the time of this writing, one or more contributors to this report has a position in Google. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Google. This may change without notice.  Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read a Speedwell Research memo from our backlog. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below. 

This weeks article is Priced to Outperform Perfection: The Home Depot Circa 1999

Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/priced-to-outperform-perfection-the 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(0:45) – Housekeeping

(1:33) – Memo Reading Starts

(14:40) – Closing Comments

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below. 

This weeks article is The Risk Circle: Deciding What Risks Matter and When

Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-risk-circle-deciding-what-risks 

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(0:47) –Memo Reading Starts

(14:55) – Closing Comments

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Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below. 

This weeks article is How Pies, Proofs, and Punch Cards Hold Key Insights into the Cost of Equity

Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/how-pies-proofs-and-punch-cards-hold 

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Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(0:46) –Memo Reading Starts

(19:56) – Closing Comments

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Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below. 

This weeks article is Understanding Modularity: How Apple, Bloomberg, and Amazon Kept Strategic Coherency

 Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/understanding-modularity-how-apple 

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Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(0:49) –Memo Reading Starts

(16:56) – Closing Comments

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Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

 

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this podcast on Floor & Decor, Speedwell Research covers everything from its founding as a single store in Atlanta, Georgia to becoming the leading hard surface flooring specialty chain retailer. We draw on Speedwell Research’s 57 page research report to teach not just about the flooring industry and Floor & Decor’s interlocking business model, but also about competitive dynamics and how to think about store level unit economics. We hope you enjoy!

 (Please note that for the first few minutes of the recording, occasionally the sound quality declines. It improves thereafter.)

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(1:51) Background 

(4:48) CEO Tom Taylor

(6:21) Industry 

(15:26) Floor & Decor Model 

(24:33) TAM Breakdown and Commercial Business 

(28:35) Pro Business

(33:15) Competitive Landscape and Main Competition

(59:10) Four Wall Store Model, Mature Margins

(1:11:49) Long-Term Store Target  

(1:24:45) What Can Go Wrong, Risks 

 

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 Purchase Speedwell's FND Report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2022/11/08/floor-decor-deep-dive/

Become a full Speedwell Research Member here: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/ 

 

Articles Mentioned

Speedwell’s Memo Introducing the Piton Idea: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-piton-network-decisions-that

Speedwell’s Memo on Home Depot’s Valuation in 1999:  https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/priced-to-outperform-perfection-the  

Floor & Decor 2022 Earnings Recap: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/floor-and-decor-2022-earnings-recap

Floor & Decor 2H23 Earnings Recap: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/floor-and-decor-2q2023  

 

Business Breakdowns Floor & Decor Podcast: https://www.joincolossus.com/episodes/29086328/cohen-floor-decor-raising-the-floor?tab=transcript

 

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC 

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in FND. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in FND. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ 

 

In this episode of The Synopsis we read an excerpt from our 63 page Walker & Dunlop Report. If you prefer to read instead of listening to this article, you can find access to it below. 

This weeks article is from the business history section of our Walker & Dunlop report.  

 Article Link: https://open.substack.com/pub/speedwellsnippets/p/walker-and-dunlop-business-history?r=3jwcb&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcome=true

 

 

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Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(2:02) –Article Reading Starts

(21:55) – Closing Comments

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Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

Purchase Walker & Dunlop Single Report: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/ 

Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/ 

 

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we introduce a new episode format called, “Articles”. As the name suggests, this episode will be a reading of a memo written by Speedwell Research. If you prefer to read instead of listening to the memos, you can find access to the article below. On this first Articles episode, we are reading our business philosophy piece introducing the concept of the Piton and the Piton Network. 

This weeks article is The Piton Network: Decisions that Simultaneously Support and Limit the Future Decision Space.

 Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-piton-network-decisions-that

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Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(0:47) –Memo Reading Starts

(18:30) – Closing Comments

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Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

 

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we cover capital-light homebuilder, Dream Finders Homes. We dovetail into the homebuilding industry, the macro supply/ demand environment,  as well as detail Dream Finders Homes business model and how it differs from peer NVR. This podcast is informed by Speedwell Research’s new short format reports, called “Exploratory Reports”. We released the first Exploratory Report on Dream Finders Homes for free (link below). 

Dream Finders Homes Report Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/dream-finders-home-exploratory-report 

 

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Show Notes 

(0:00) - Intro, What is an Exploratory Research Piece?

(2:37) - Macro Backdrop, Housing Supply/ Demand Factors

(10:51) - Homebuilding as a Business 

(13:57) - Dream Finders Homes History and Background

(19:17) - ROIC, Financial Performance, 

(22:36) - Capital-light Model vs Traditional 

(27:14) - Original Capital-light Homebuilder, NVR and how NVR differs from DFH

(34:08) - Competitive Factors, How do Homebuilders Differentiate?  

(37:18) - Risks and Concerns 

(42:36) - Closing Thoughts 

(44:33) - Conclusion

 

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Piece Introducing the The Value Capture Index: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-consumers-hierarchy-of-preferences-dc6 

 

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

 

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

 

Purchase a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/ 

 

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, no contributors to the podcast had a position in DFH. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on did not  have a position in DFH. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ 

In this episode of The Synopsis, we cover everything from Etsy’s founding history and early strategic errors to how Josh Silverman quickly reaccelerated growth and improved profitability after several years of sagging performance. We dovetail into what makes the platform unique and how Etsy has been able to succeed where both eBay and Amazon failed. We draw on Speedwell’s 79 page report to teach not just about Etsy, but also help investors learn about how great CEOs run a business.  

 

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Show Notes

 

(0:00) Intro

(0:54) Founding History

(3:01) Where the Name “Etsy” Comes From

(6:45) Issues with Founder Robert Kalin

(10:45) New CEO, The Chad Dickerson Era

(14:02) Foolish Endeavors

(19:48) Turning Around Etsy, Josh Silverman Appointed CEO

(25:29) Identifying Where Etsy Can Improve, Initiatives to Improve the Buyer Experience

(35:40) Etsy Advertising, A Fumble Recovered

(41:16) How Etsy Makes Money

(44:41) Covid Ecommerce Boom, 2021 Bull Market, Metric Distortions

(51:09) Changing Buyer Behavior, Improving Frequency 

(59:21) International Opportunity

(1:03:03) Capital Allocation, Acquisitions

(1:12:07) ROIC

(1:14:22) Competition, Take-Rates

(1:26:56) Pre-Mortem

 

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Purchase Speedwell's full 79 page ETSY research report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/09/28/etsy-deep-dive/

 

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

 

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

 

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in ETSY. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in ETSY. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read an excerpt from our extensive research report of Coupang! If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.

Memo Link:  https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/coupang-business-history 

Become a Speedwell Member or Purchase the Coupang Single Report Here

The Synopsis Coupang Company Podcast Episode: Apple, Spotify

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Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(1:05) –Memo Reading Starts

(15:32) – Closing Comments

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Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more. 

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here. 

Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.

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Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

This week on The Synopsis, we introduce our Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences framework in a new episode format. The Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences is a helpful idea for investors and entrepreneurs to better understand the market, their products, and competitors’ offerings. You can check out our original writing introducing the idea here. 

This show is the first of our “Dialogue” format, which will be episodes focused on business frameworks or other investing ideas. We will return with a Deep Dive on a specific company next time. We hope you enjoy!

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro, New Show Concept

(1:37) Explaining the Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences

(7:26) Product Market Fit Through a Different Lens, Where the Jobs Framework Fits In

(11:34) Chipotle versus Taco Bell Example

(14:38) Etsy’s Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences

(16:43) Cash Flow Durability, Consumer Surplus as Churn Mitigation

(21:23) Brands, See’s Candy, Fulfilling Psychological Needs

(24:51) Real World Applications of the Framework, Chipotle Again, Retail Apparel Companies

(29:17) More Examples, Amazon, Fine Dishware, Temu, Shein, Depop, Facebook Marketplace

(32:50) Sustainability as a Potential Preference, Tesla, Patagonia, Allbirds

(36:15) Summarizing Key Aspects of the Framework and When to Implement

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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to all of our research reports: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

 

Our first Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences Piece: https://speedwellresearch.com/2022/11/18/the-consumers-hierarchy-of-preferences-the-other-side-of-the-consumer-value-prop/

 

Our second Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences Piece: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/02/04/the-consumers-hierarchy-of-preferences-two-ends-of-the-strategy-spectrum/

 

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

 

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

 

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

 

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this podcast on Copart, Speedwell Research covers everything from Founder Willis Johnson’s early business career to the industry dynamics, and how Copart became the global, salvage marketplace auction leader. Investors can learn a lot from Willis Johnson’s early business intuition and movement from the lowest wrung of the salvage vehicle value chain as a liquidator to ultimately a critical service provider for insurance companies. We draw on Speedwell’s 85 page report, released in May 2023, to teach not just about Copart’s business, strategy, and formidable competitive advantages, but also to parse out cultural factors that distinguish truly great companies. We hope you enjoy!

(Please note that about 1/3rd into the podcast, the sound quality periodically declines. It then improves towards the last 1/3rd of the podcast. We apologize for this and have identified the issue for future recordings.)

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(2:19) Willis Johnson Background History and Early Career

(9:19) BTS Auctions: The Beginnings of Copart

(14:12) Changing the Business Model to Align Incentives

(17:57) How Jay Adair was Introduced to Copart

(18:40) Copart’s Early Expansion

(24:09) Experimenting with Internet Auctions in the 90’s

(29:43) CAT Events and Copart's Ethics

(38:33) Industry Overview

(50:23) IAA History, IPO, Private Buyout, Merging with KAR, Spin-off, and Ritchie Bros Acquisition

(1:07:26) Copart vs IAA, Competitive and Cultural Differences, Market Share

(1:24:06) Financials

(1:27:12) Capital Allocation, Growth Assumptions

(1:30:58) ROIC and variations compared to IAA

(1:34:00) International, Details on How the German Market is Different, Barriers to International Growth

(1:45:27) Other Business Initiatives

(1:51:22) Growth Expectations and the Reverse DCF  

(1:53:40) Risks, Autonomous Vehicles

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Purchase Speedwell's full ~22,000 word CPRT report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/05/22/copart-deep-dive/

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/ 

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy 

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC 

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in CPRT. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in CPRT. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ 

In this podcast on RH, Speedwell Research covers everything from Restoration Hardware’s beginnings as just a catalog in a personal living room to massive multi-story Galleries with restaurants that generate >$10mn. Investors can learn much from the early business failings, as well as the incredible turnaround and business transformation Gary Friedman led. We draw on Speedwell’s 86 page research report, released in March 2023, to teach you not just about RH, but also about novel customer acquisition strategies, the dangers of promotions, how to build a coherent consumer value prop, and show how changing a business’s strategy requires reworking every element of the company. Enjoy!

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(1:31) Early Founding History, Novel Customer Acquisition Strategy

(5:48) First IPO in 1998

(8:23) Restoration Hardware Model Starts to Break

(9:29) Gary Friedman Background and Takeover of Restoration Hardware

(14:43) Initial Business Changes Friedman Makes

(18:32) Second IPO in 2012, Starting to Envision a Luxury Retailer

(24:27) Ascent of Luxury Mountain, The Mega Gallery Strategy

(26:43) Solving a Key Business Shortcoming, The King Midas Problem, What Meituan has in Common with RH

(32:26) Source Book Strategy and When Mailing a 540 Page Catalog Makes Sense

(35:12) Growing Pain Period, Reworking Key Elements of the Business

(45:13) RH Membership and the Problems with Promotions

(52:07) What Job RH Does, The Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preference

(54:35) The Value Capture Index and How to Assess Retailer’s Pricing Strategies, Competition, Disadvantages of Ecommerce

(1:06:03) ROIC and Margins, Reverse DCF, Revenue Build

(1:14:50) RH Brand Extensions, Private Jets and Yacht, Guesthouse

(1:20:45) Acquisitions, Waterworks, Apple vs LVMH Model

(1:26:05) What Could the Business Look Like in 10 Years?

(1:27:46) Pre-Mortem

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Purchase Speedwell's full ~21,000 word RH report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/03/22/rh-deep-dive/

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/ 

Free Piece on The Value Capture Index: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-consumers-hierarchy-of-preferences-dc6

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy 

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC 

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in RH. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in RH. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/ 

In this inaugural podcast, Speedwell Research goes into details on their ~170 page, January 2023 report on Meta Platforms ($META). We cover a list of questions including 1) how resilient are social networks and why did Friendster and MySpace disapear? 2) how does ad tech work and did Apple's policies permanently impair Meta? 3) what "job" does Facebook and Instagram do? 4) is the metaverse a dealbreaker for investors? 5) and much more. 

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(3:09) History: Six Degrees, Friendster, MySpace, and early Facebook

(28:32) Jobs to Be Done: What consumer needs does Facebook serve and the degradation of the network 

(44:57) Meta's ability to spin up new apps, failed apps, Threads, how sticky are network effects, Tencent's QQ 

(59:04) Monetization formula, advertising history, and primer on the digital ad ecosystem 

(1:19:25) Apple Privacy Changes, ATT, IDFA, Return on Ad Spend, auction dynamics

(1:38:48) Can Meta recover from their data loss? Inverting the question with the reverse DCF to see implied growth. 

(1:43:47) WhatsApp, IRR Math 

(1:47:23) Metaverse Spend, Financial Returns, Strategy

(1:53:36) Year of Efficiency

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Purchase Speedwell's full ~47,000 word Meta report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/01/17/meta-platforms-deep-dive/ 

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/ 

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy 

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC 

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a postion in Meta. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Meta. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here:  https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/