The Road to Autonomy – Details, episodes & analysis

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s potential new partnership with Toyota, the launch of Aurora’s driver-out commercial operations and Uber’s continued effort to challenge the autonomy duopoly. 

On Tuesday, Waymo announced a potential partnership with Toyota to develop personally-owned autonomous vehicles, confirming a business pivot in an effort to counter Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi launch in Austin. Wile Waymo signals a shift in strategy, Aurora launched fully autonomous commercial operations in partnership with Uber Freight.

As Uber became Aurora’s first commercial customer, the rideshare side of their business continued to double-down on autonomy, as they further fragmented the autonomy market when they announced a strategic partnership with May Mobility to deploy AVs on the platform.

Recorded on Thursday, April 24, 2025

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Sergey Litvinenko, Co-Founder & CEO, Koop joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the emergence of autonomous vehicle fleets and why the fleet model is becoming the model for scaling autonomous vehicles globally. 

In the autonomous vehicle market there are new emerging business models for owning and operating the fleets from leasing to REIT-like structures to vertically integrated fleet mangers with each model posing it’s own unique challenges. From insurance requirements to financing to operational complexities, making entering the sector difficult without the right partners. Yet despite these complexities, there are vast opportunities.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Autonomous Vehicle Fleets

5:51 Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Franchises

8:30 Individual Fleet Owners 

14:42 Personally-Owned Autonomous Vehicles 

18:41 Autonomous Driving Developers / OEM Partnerships 

22:46 Insuring Autonomous Vehicle Fleets

26:51 Bundling Autonomous Vehicle Insurance with Fleet Management 

31:33 Rental Car Companies

33:25 Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Model Challenges

36:40 Future of Autonomous Vehicle Fleets

Recorded on Friday, April 25, 2025

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss their road trip to Forward Forth Worth, Waymo’s expansion to Washington, D.C. and the emerging opportunity in autonomous trucking.

Texas is thriving capital of autonomous trucking with Aurora, Bot Auto, Kodiak, Torc and Waabi all having a presence in the state. Now autonomous vehicle companies are flocking to the state with Avride, May Mobility, Waymo and Zoox all having a presence in the state.

While Texas emerges as the capital of autonomy, Waymo continues to solidify its lead as the world leader in robotaxis. With their lead in tact and the demand for their service growing, Waymo announced this week that they are expanding service to Washington, D.C. in 2026. As both Waymo continues to grow and expand, the economic impact of autonomy is only just beginning to be felt.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Waymo Subreddit

01:17 Forward Fort Worth

03:10 Insurance

06:55 Investing in Autonomous Trucking

11:56 May Mobility Arlington Deployment

13:56 Autonomy Markets on the Road

17:28 Waymo Announces Service is Coming to D.C. in 2026

21:41 Waymo / Uber Relationship

26:50 Waymo Testing Zeekr Robotaxis on I-85 in Atlanta

27:44 Waymo, The World Leader in Robotaxis

30:46 London

31:56 New York

33:34 Autonomy Markets Confessions

34:34 Waymo Scheduled Rides

38:05 Waymo Pricing

41:08 Tesla’s June Robotaxi Launch

48:03 Next Week

Recorded on Tuesday, March 25, 2025

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

Autonomy is transforming industries and creating an entirely new economy that we call the autonomy economy™. The Road to Autonomy provides advisory and market intelligence services that helps you better understand the market and stay ahead of what’s coming next. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Finch Fulton, Government Affairs and Policy Advisor, K&L Gates joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the policy and labor challenges currently facing the emerging autonomy economy. 

As the development of autonomous trucks and vehicles gains momentum, it faces significant policy and labor hurdles. There are complicated policy issues that autonomous trucking and vehicle companies must navigate to ensure that autonomous trucks and vehicles can be deployed on America’s roads.

During the conversation Finch provides an insider’s perspective on the pushback against automation, autonomous trucks and autonomous vehicles under the guise of safety concerns. He highlights how overly restrictive policies could cripple innovation and America’s competitiveness, driving commerce and jobs to other countries.

The discussion also delves into the role of federal agencies like the FMCSA and NHTSA in establishing a clear regulatory framework for autonomous trucks and autonomous vehicles. Delays in key rule-makings are examined as well as what happens when nothing happens. Along with the economic impact of those non-decisions are and who ultimately benefits. 

When autonomous trucks are actively hauling freight on the roads of America and autonomous vehicles are common in cities around the country, America wins. The economy becomes stronger, inflation begins to subside and the roads become safer. When this happens we will begin to usher in the autonomy economy. 

Recorded on Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Episode Chapters

00:15 Election Season and Policy Implications for Automation

01:31 The Electric Vehicle Market and Tesla's Influence

04:58 Supply Chain Challenges and National Security Issues

08:15 The Future of Autonomous Technologies and Labor

20:21 Silicon Valley's Shift Towards Defense Innovation

22:35 Policy Prospects for Autonomous Vehicles in Future Administrations

28:41 Decoding the Politics of Safety Regulations

29:47 The Stalled Progress on Automated Vehicle Safety Standards

31:36 The Impact of Rulemaking Delays on Autonomous Vehicle Safety

33:05 Exploring the Role of Organized Labor in Autonomous Vehicle Regulation

34:01 State vs. Federal: The Battle Over Autonomous Vehicle Legislation

36:52 The Future of Autonomous Vehicle Policy and Investment

44:46 Navigating the Challenges of Electrification and Autonomous Trucks

50:56 A Call for Common Sense in Autonomous Vehicle Policy

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, Texas Oil & Gas Association joined Grayson Brulte on The Autonomy Economy podcast to discuss the pivotal role the oil and gas plays in the global economy. 

With a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, Dean provides an in-depth analysis of how geopolitical factors like the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions with Iran impact oil markets. He examines the increasing demand for natural gas, particularly from Asia and Texas’ position as one of the leading producer and exporters of oil and gas.

During the conversation, Dean and Grayson explore the implications of rising interest rates and inflation on the energy sector and the broader economy, including California’s controversial electricity pricing based on household income. 

Additionally, Grayson and Dean discuss the U.S.’s growing national debt and how it could potentially impact the energy markets as there is an interdependence between economic growth and energy demand. 

This comprehensive conversation is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the intricate dynamics of the global energy landscape and it’s profound influence on economic development.

Recorded on Wednesday, April 10, 2024

Episode Chapters

0:11 The Impact of Geopolitics

4:41 Monetary Policy Impact on Oil & Natural Gas Markets

13:34 Growing Demand for Natural Gas

19:24 California Energy Policy

26:40 Oil & Gas Impact on the Global Economy

34:02 Impact of the Growing U.S. Debt on the Economy 

41:34 China Oil Imports 

43:48 Things to Watch in the Oil Markets

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ira Renfrew, Chief Product Officer, Outrider joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss how Outrider is developing autonomous yard operations that improve efficiency, safety, and resiliency for warehouse operations. 

Outrider has developed an innovative autonomous yard truck system that can connect and disconnect trailers autonomously using their patented Trailer Connect technology. Yard automation is as an untapped opportunity for automation that Outrider correctly identified in 2017 when the company was founded by Andrew Smith.

The Outrider stack was designed for mixed traffic environments in warehouse and distribution yards. One of the advancements that has been made since the company was founded is the introduce of their autonomous “glad hand” trailer connection process.

By automating the entire process, Outrider is able to achieve human-level throughput for trailer moves while enabling 24/7 operation and optimization across the yard truck fleet, leading to increased efficiency. 

Closing out the conversation Ira discusses Outrider’s roadmap, scaling plans, the benefits of electrification when combined with autonomy at customer sites, and Outrider’s vision for fully automated supply chains enabled by AI and robotics.

Recorded on Tuesday, April 2, 2024

Episode Chapters

0:09 The Evolving Warehouse Automation Market

5:11 Increase Warehouse Efficiency with Autonomous Yard Trucks

8:58 Outrider Market Positioning

12:47 Outrider Tech Stack

22:43 Scaling Outrider

26:05 Trailer Connect

28:42 Fully Automated Supply Chain

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Sergey Litvinenko, Co-Founder & CEO, Koop joined Grayson Brulte on The Autonomy Economy podcast how autonomy could transform insurance economics. 

As autonomous vehicles and robotic automation spread across industries, a massive new risk ecosystem is emerging that will require innovative insurance solutions. In a fascinating podcast interview, Sergey Litvinenko, co-founder & CEO of insurtech pioneer Koop, provided rare insights into how his company is leading the charge in underwriting this technological transformation.

Traditional insurance carriers have been hesitant to dive into insuring autonomy risks like self-driving cars and warehouse robotics due to a lack of data and technical expertise. As Sergey explained, “If you can’t model the risk, you can’t underwrite it profitably.” This knowledge gap has created a massive greenfield opportunity for insurtechs focused specifically on robotics and AI.

Koop has developed proprietary systems that ingest and analyze real-world sensor data from robots and autonomous vehicles to precisely model their behavior and safety performance. Using this cutting-edge approach, Koop has achieved stellar underwriting results, with loss ratios under 5% for its robotics book – compared to 70%+ for traditional P&C lines.

This lucrative capability is allowing Koop to rapidly scale and cement its position as the dominant player in the burgeoning autonomy insurance market. Sergey believes large incumbents will be forced to partner with or acquire specialist providers like Koop rather than build expertise in-house. He forecasted robotics insurance could be a “tens of billions” dollar market delivering 30%+ underwriting profits.

As AI ushers in a “Cambrian explosion” of robotic use cases across industries, demand for intelligently underwritten insurance solutions will skyrocket. Koop is uniquely positioned with the technical foundations, proprietary data, and risk modeling skills to capture this unprecedented opportunity.

In Sergey’s words, “When you intersect tens of billions of deployed robots with insurance where you can deliver 30% annual returns…it just makes me very excited about the space.” The autonomy economy is materializing rapidly – don’t be surprised if the pioneering innovators insuring this revolution turn out to be young insurtechs like Koop rather than industry giants.

Listen to the full podcast for more fascinating insights from Sergey Kravchenko on the future of autonomy insurance. The robotics risk market is open for disruption – will your company be leading or following?

Recorded on Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Episode Chapters

0:10 2024 Insurance Market Outlook

5:14 Cyber Security Insurance

9:40 Underwriting Autonomous Vehicles and Trucks

35:36 How Companies Should Prepare for Autonomy and Automation 

37:44 AI Impact on Insurance 

40:26 The Evolving Underwriting Markets for Autonomous Vehicles 

42:34 Key Take Aways

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Are you ready to go behind the scenes and uncover the secrets of the company playing a pivotal role in the future of autonomous and electric vehicles? In this riveting episode, we dive deep into the world of Applied Intuition, the Silicon Valley company partnering with automotive giants such as Porsche to develop groundbreaking software that will make self-driving cars a reality.

Join us as host Grayson Brulte sits down with Qasar Younis and Peter Ludwig, the visionary co-founders who are fusing cutting-edge artificial intelligence with decades of automotive expertise. You'll gain unprecedented insights into their bold mission to accelerate safe autonomy across industries – from transforming in-vehicle experiences to tackling defense applications.

But that's not all! Brace yourself for insights into Applied Intuition's pioneering work, including their multi-stack strategy to future-proof technology, ambitious vehicle software platform to revolutionize mobile electronics, and the innovative ways they're empowering automakers to control the consumer experience like never before.

Don't miss this opportunity to understand the forces driving autonomy and witness the birth of a new era in intelligent machines. Listen now and immerse yourself in a world where the boundaries of possibility are constantly being redefined.

Episode Chapters

0:00 The Road to Autonomy Index Introduction

0:56 Series E Funding

3:44 Applied Intuition AI Roadmap

5:58 AV 2.0

10:00 Insights into the Chip Market

11:04 Applied Intuition Trust Layer

14:37 Autonomous Driving

24:36 Applied Intuition x Porsche

27:45 Software Development with OEMs

36:54 Applied Intuition Defense Business

39:24 Future of Applied Intuition

Recorded on Friday, March 29, 2024 

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Pete Bigelow, Senior Reporter, Automotive News joined Grayson Brulte on The Autonomy Economy podcast to discuss Tesla’s data advantage and what it means to the development and commercialization of autonomous driving. 

The conversation begins with Pete and Grayson discussing Tesla FSD (Full Self-Driving) and the advantages Tesla has with their data gathering abilities. Tesla has over 5 million vehicles fitted with FSD hardware and software on the road today, driving an estimated 50 billion miles per year — 100,000 miles per minute. This on-going data collection gives Tesla a massive advantage over competitors developing an end-to-end neural net self-driving stack.

Mobileye is taking a similar approach to Tesla by gathering real-world driving data to train their autonomous models. Currently Mobileye has over 26 years of data equaling over 200 petabytes of driving footage, equivalent to 16 million 1-minute driving clips. But is it enough data to train their autonomous driving models and scale a business?

It has yet to be determined if there is a business there for Mobileye as year-over-year revenues are expected to be $226.35 million, down 50.6% from the year-ago. To try and accelerate revenue growth, Mobileye is moving the business away from ADAS chips to the autonomous driving sector which has larger margins. 

[Mobileye is] talking about going from roughly $50 dollars of revenue per unit to $1,500 with Supervision to $3,000 per car with Chauffeur. So I think that the path mobilize sees forward is really ramping up production of those systems, finding buyers for those systems, particularly in China.– Pete Bigelow

While it’s well known that Tesla is gathering driving data, it’s not well known that Mobileye is gathering driving data. Could consumers push back and demand to be paid a fee for gathering data for Mobileye? If consumers demanded to be paid, the Mobileye autonomous driving business model would be at risk. Then there is the political risk. What if a U.S. Congressman or Senator introduced a “Car Owner Bill of Rights”?

The data being gathered by vehicles is going to be an asset class at some point in the future. When it becomes an asset class, owners of the vehicle will demand to get paid the same way publishers are demanding to be paid today when their content is used to train large-language models (LLMs). 

Data is the asset that unlocks future business models. One of the most significant business models that will emerge from the development of autonomous driving is licensing. If FSD use rates pick up and Tesla does indeed license FSD, RBC is projecting that Tesla will generate $35 billion in FSD revenue and $18 billion in licensing a year by 2035 for a total of $53 billion a year in revenue.

Then there is Qualcomm. In Q1 FY 2024, Qualcomm reported automotive revenue of $598 million up from $456 million in Q1 FY 2023. An increase of $142 million, year-over-year. Sales were partly driven by the Snapdragon Digital Chassis Solution. Their year-over-year automotive revenue is growing faster than both NVIDIA and Mobileye. With a $30 billion dollar design pipeline and focus on ADAS, Qualcomm is well positioned to enter the autonomous driving market in a big way.

Qualcomm has become already the quiet giant of the automotive industry. – Pete Bigelow

Wrapping up the conversation, Pete shares his insights into how he sees autonomous driving market evolving over the next five years.

Recorded on Friday, March 8, 2024 

Episode Chapters

0:10 Tesla FSD

5:15 Mobileye

19:51 Licensing Autonomous Driving Software 

29:10 Qualcomm

34:48 Evolving Autonomous Driving Market

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Adam Kovacevich, Founder & CEO, Chamber of Progress joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the regulatory environment for autonomous vehicles in California and what impact if passed, local control would have on the deployment on AVs in California.

The conversation begins with Adam discussing why autonomous vehicles are so divisive in California. Today, there is a divide between the entrenched “status quo” and the residents of California that are excited to use autonomous vehicles on a daily basis. 

In someways this is such a threat to the status quo that unfortunately city leaders in both LA and San Francisco have resisted. – Adam Kovacevich, Founder and CEO, Chamber of Progress

Phoenix is taking the opposite approach of both LA and San Francisco. The city and the greater Phoenix metro region have welcomed autonomous vehicles into their communities with great success. Waymo vehicles operating in the region do not get high, they do not get distracted and the do not drive drunk. Yet, when the positive benefits are presented to officials in California, they do not want to hear it.

I would like to think that Los Angeles will ultimately be one of the great markets in the world for autonomous vehicles, just because the car is so central to LA. – Adam Kovacevich, Founder and CEO, Chamber of Progress

While LA could ultimately be one of the great markets for autonomous vehicles, legislators in the State Assembly and State Senate are actively working to pass regulations that would effectively ban autonomous vehicles in California. If autonomous vehicles are essentially banned in California, the state’s economy would ultimately suffer from an economic downturn.

One of the ways that clever legislators are trying to ban autonomous vehicles is by passing legislation that would give local municipalities regulatory control over autonomous vehicles. Each municipality would have its own set of regulations, and perhaps even their own DMV to enforce the regulations. If signed into law, the local control over autonomous vehicles bill would be an effective ban on autonomous vehicles in the State of California. 

Could you image if this proposed local control law was applied to drivers? If you wanted to drive to the beach from Downtown LA, you would pass through Los Angeles, West Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Santa Monica all before ending up in Malibu. Five different cities, five potentially different sets of regulations. What if one of those cities decided they only wanted residents to drive in that city? You could potentially blocked from reaching the beach. Would this violate the California Coastal Act in some form or fashion? 

What is being proposed is not realistic. It’s being driven by special interests that want to see autonomous vehicles banned in the state. This is not about the citizens of the state or residents of the cities were autonomous vehicles operate, this is about control and appeasing special interests. 

It’s not practically about local control, it’s really effectively a ban. – Adam Kovacevich, Founder and CEO, Chamber of Progress

If the local control bill is passed, signed into law and autonomous vehicles are effectively banned in California, the business exodus from the state would further accelerate. Businesses want to operate in a regulatory environment that is predictable, manageable and stable. 

Wrapping up the conversation, Adam and Grayson discuss what it would look like if autonomous vehicles were regulated at the federal level.

Episode Chapters

0:11 Why Autonomous Vehicles are so Divisive in California

4:20 Benefits of Autonomous Vehicles

7:41 Pending Autonomous Vehicle Legislation in California 

19:55 Business Exodus from California

28:33 Developing Public Trust in Autonomous Vehicles 

34:11 Federal Regulation of Autonomous Vehicles

Recorded on Friday, March 29, 2024 

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor’s Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.