Explore every episode of the podcast The Risk Takers Podcast

This week GP & SP talk about how they keep an eye on their automated PM trading via alerts and dashboards. Golf tournaments getting shortened is back in the news with the same spot popping up as Pebble Beach 2024. And the NBA softens on prediction markets.

0:30 — Introduction
1:44 — Monitoring prediction-market activity
6:18 — Building a trading dashboard
10:06 — Managing positions and risk
16:38 — Trade tapes, alerts, and market flow
29:15 — Prediction Markets News
55:12 — Listener Questions

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we are joined by Liam Kane of Kane Analytics to discuss his grind from a Bet365 trader to a market maker providing liquidity on multiple exchanges.

0:00 - Introduction
1:41 - How Liam Got Started
10:33 - The Life Of A Sports Trader
31:23 - The Process of Scaling Up
39:34 - Succeeding Now And In The Future
1:09:10 Listener Questions 

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The lost tapes. A lot of people have asked for the BetBash episode as we did sell out the Sphere and only 20,000 people could see it live. This is the episode & a short intro. Interesting to see how out of date some of the takes could seem seeing as they are only two months old.

Just a note - thank you to Spanky for letting us do this live pod. It was the highlight of a great event. We would recommend Bet Bash to most of our audience and hope to see everyone there next year!

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week GP and SP get deep on questions about morality and if work life balance even is real. Then we discuss injury protection coming to PMs!

0:00 - Introduction
3:30 - Learning To Be Content With Performance
22:05 - The Morality and Ethics of Sports Betting
38:28 - This Week in Projection Market News 
54:59 - Web Scraping & Terms of Service 
58:04 - Explaining How Strikeout Markets Make Money
1:02:25 - Preventing Chasing Bets Into Addictions

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Join the Predictions Cup: https://predictionscup.com/

Today we are joined by Ric Best, who runs one of the biggest prediction market desks in the world - Susquehanna Predictions. If you have ever wanted to get a peek behind the curtain on how the big boys operate, this is your chance. Please consider joining Susquehanna's Predictions Cup - a prediction market contest for students that carries a $30k top prize! 

0:00 Ric's background
15:32 Betting on prediction markets
36:15 Building the team
53:16  How SIG trades
1:45:33 Big positions and what's next

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

In this episode - GP & SP drop some hot takes. GP thinks his are actually hot takes this time. And a big news week that includes the Kalshi wash trading allegations, Polymarket & DraftKings in the news for the wrong reasons and the bizarre ACR withdrawal terms that locked up customer funds.

0:00 Hot takes
35:30 News
1:15:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Pre-Order "Advantage Player": https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/826945/advantage-player-by-gina-fiore/

This week GP and SP sit down w/ Gina Fiore, one of the most prolific winners in the history of advantage play. Gina has won counting cards, hole carding, edge sorting, playing slots, poker, sports, casino bonus play and other moves across a successful AP career. A career so interesting that HBO is making a show out of her memoir "Advantage Player" that is being released next month. Please pre-order to help Gina out because we promise you will be reading this book - it's so good!

0:00 Intro
07:00 Card Counting
15:00 Hole Carding & Advanced AP
50:30 Edge Sorting
1:01:30 Team Play
1:14:00 Going Public & AP Life
1:39:00 Q&A

Gina's Substack: https://substack.com/@rxgamble?r=3xlh0k&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=stories&shareImageVariant=light

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

SP and GP go through all of the software they are currently using in the prediction market trading and why they think it's useful. News is spicy with the incorrect settlement of the Mich/WMU that lead to absolute chaos on Kalshi and the long downtime of Poly US on the first college football saturday.

0:00 Tech Stack
30:30 College Football PM Chaos
1:12:28 Underdog Announcement
1:23:15 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

GP & SP sit down with Richard Lee - a PM trader that came a different route than most of our guests. Richard built his trading firm before PMs as a market maker of meme coins back in the 2017 crypto boom. After that he tried to build his own prediction market, before deciding the better decision was to just trade on the existing ones.

0:00 Intro to Advantage Play
11:00 Crypto Market Making
33:45 Transition to Prediction Markets
1:13:00 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

GP and SP start the episode off by listing 6 things they are focusing on for NFL this year on prediction markets. Then they get to the news - which includes Kalshi putting RFQ maker fees on and ETR & Rufus taking some public projections/ models private for use on prediction markets.

0:00 Keys to NFL on PMs
22:30 News
47:00 ETR & Rufus go Private
1:08:45

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

In this episode we are joined by high stakes cash/ tournament poker player Lewis Spencer. We talk to Lewis about his path to playing in the biggest poker games/ tournaments: what it takes to win, how the game has changed with AI, and the state of the poker economy today.

Then Lewis walks us through what skills have been transferrable to his prediction market trading - and how he is approaching finding edge using his experience beating the highest stakes poker games. Plus an epic Isildur1 story at the end that I don't think has been told yet!

0:00 Start in poker
47:30 Transferring Poker Skills to Prediction Markets and Sports Betting
1:14:40 Current PM trading
1:38:30 Listener Q&A 

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

GP and SP recap their experience at BetBash including the live podcast. Then we clear a backlog of the most important news topics and make a case for recreational gambling.

0:00 BetBash Recap
40:30 News

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

On this episode we are joined by Henry Kerins - CEO of Manhattan Athletic Group and one of the earliest employees at NoVig. MAG spun off of NoVig as an internal trading team and now trades almost every sports market across multiple venues. This is a must listen for those building their own trading operations in the space!

0:00 Intro
50:15 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week we have a Q&A extravaganza. 42 questions were asked on Twitter - and we get through all of them besides 2 golf questions that one of the hosts decided to cut out (not naming names). News includes someone gaming the mysterious world cup PM sponsor, ADI Predictstreet & an ice cream shop "hedging" on Kalshi.

Substack Mentioned: https://pmpulse.substack.com/

0:00 Q&A Round 1
52:15 News
1:24:30 Q&A Round 2

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week we are joined by professional horse bettor Dennis Montoro (https://x.com/dennycaps1) about all things horse betting. Denny explains why getting a good fair is only one of the important modeling problems in horse racing and a lot of general advice on how to win at peer to peer games.

0:00 Intro
15:30 Pari-mutuel Betting
51:00 Rebates & CAWs
1:14:10 Modelling Horse Racing
1:37:00 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The news almost becomes the main topic in this episode, where GP and SP breakdown the record breaking England v. Mexico World Cup game that did most likely over a billion dollars of volume between all markets.

The main topic is a look into what non-technical traits are near-universal amongst top bettors.

0:00 Traits of Top Bettors

28:30 News

1:11:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today on the show we are joined by EvenSteven (https://x.com/evenstevengg) - a sports bettor with seven-figures of profit on prediction markets.

Steven talks about why most top down bettors shouldn't try to originate or market make, how to analyze live trading data to find edge, and what is the most important skill a live taker can have.

0:00 Sports Betting
30:30 Prediction Markets
1:10:30 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This episode SP and GP get into the first World Cup on Prediction Markets. The insanity of this world cup has surpassed our wildest expectations and we discuss what makes it unlike anything we have ever seen before. Big news and a lot of questions follow - enjoy!

0:00 First World Cup on Prediction Markets
36:00 News

1:04:30 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today GP and SP talk to James Gettinger, founding partner of Gutter Capital - one of the top preforming VC funds in the world.

Why is James on our podcast you might ask? Well, before venture capital, James was one of the most profitable Daily Fantasy Sports players of all time. He pioneered contest simulations and was a first mover in many strategies that now are common amongst the best players. That ability to make the plays conventional wisdom says are stupid not only made him millions in DFS - but give him a big edge in a similar game in VC.

It was great to have James on - as he proves that the people that succeed in our industry can go out and crush other industries.

0:00 Intro/ Poker
14:30 Transition to DFS
52:00 Going from DFS to VC

Apply to Elbow Grease: https://elbowgrease.cc/

Gutter Capital: https://www.gutter.cc/

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

First we welcome SP back to the podcast and he shares some exciting life news that explains his absence last week.

Then SP and GP both give an example of an originating edge that they had at some point - not shocking that the "sports" are Golf and League of Legends. Big news week and some great questions follow.

0:00 Dead Originating Edges
33:10 News 
1:17:30 Questions

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week SP is AFK so we get Mr. PeanutBettor to sub in as a guest host. We cover who we think will be most helped by AI along with a lot of news and great questions. Clearly SP holds the show together because this went off the rails and became the longest episode yet.

00:00 AI in Sports Betting
40:30 News
1:13:30 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week we kick it off with some lessons we learned retroactively from sportsbooks after we started market making on prediction markets. Then we cover the news - including the Matt Kalish v. Kalshi saga that is still going strong 2 weeks in. Then we hit one of the longest Q&As in history to clear our backlog of questions!

0:00 What Sportsbooks Got Right
25:30 News
1:14:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week SP and GP are joined by Troy (https://x.com/troycuban) to talk about how he has made over $700k on Kalshi this year despite never originating a bet in his life.

Troy is slightly different than our typical guest (only slightly) in that he comes from a traditional finance background and now only does RFQs full time. This could be the deepest dive recorded into the most important market on Kalshi!

0:00 Intro to Sports Betting
29:00 Everything RFQs
1:19:00 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Record breaking episode for most questions asked - if you asked a question and we didn't get to it, it's because this episode would have been 4 hours and we will answer on our next solo show.

Today SP and GP talk about the non-obvious risks on prediction markets. As bettors we all are aware of bankroll management and betsizing tools like Kelly. But in this new world, there are more threats to your bankroll looming around every corner and being defensive is the game.

We touch on FanDuel and DraftKings getting into the PM space as market makers on the exchanges - and have another great Mr. PeanutBettor question of the week.

0:00 How we define risk on PMs
10:40 Listener Risk Qs
1:28:40 News
1:48:00 Random Listener Qs

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we interview Clay Alter (ClayA on Kalshi) about his start in sports betting and recent rise up the Kalshi leaderboard. Clay shocks SP and GP when he says he manages his orders fully from the orders tab on the Kalshi UI. Possibly the most manual trader we have had on and he's crossed $1.5 million in profits in 8 months on Kalshi. A great reminder that there are many ways to do it!
Follow Clay on twitter: https://x.com/alter_clay

0:00 Intro
13:00 Getting Started w/ Sports Betting
38:00 Switching to Kalshi 
1:18:40 Listener Questions

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Nerd alert. The main topic is a discussion on deterministic v. probabilistic models in the current betting environment. News includes the solider who bet on himself to capture a foreign leader and made $440k before getting arrested and a rant on the people complaining about FandDuels injury insurance.

0:00 Deterministic v. Stochastic Sports Models

26:00 News

1:05:15 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we are joined by Justin (https://x.com/LazyBrain64) - a professional basketball bettor who bets only mainlines. That's right - no NBA props!

This is a guy who bets his opinion, has lots of manual inputs into his model, and is doing it in what most consider to be one of the toughest markets in the industry. Justin not only drops a lot of betting wisdom, but also life wisdom while he explains his thoughtful path that brought him to professional bettor in a sport that he is obsessed with.

0:00 Early Career and Betting

28:00 Sports betting trading job

52:30 Going full-time as a bettor

1:11:20 Basketball Q&A

1:41:00 Other Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

GP tries to get back in the good graces of the sharp taking community while talking about the Masters. SP walks through the golf betting model he spun up just in time for the biggest event of the year. Some news goes the prediction markets way and the boys discuss their favorite books in the questions.

0:00 MASTERS RECAP & QUESTIONS

53:30 News

1:14:30 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

In this episode we outline paths for people of all skill levels in the new betting/ predicting ecosystem. GP continues his twitter rant on deci-cent pricing in golf, and the boys answer the rest of the listener questions they missed last episode.

0:00 PM paths for bettors of all skill levels

38:45 News

55:20 Deci-cent Pricing in Golf

1:08:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we welcome Alex to the podcast (https://x.com/Landtrader8375). In his first podcast appearance he tells us about leaving his 9 year career in law for full-time betting, how he comes to a hypothesis on big spots that is rarely "wrong", and many fun dead edges and AP shenanigans that include ending up selling lumber after trying to get into real estate.

0:00 Intro

19:15 First 1st down bet that launched his career

34:00 What it takes to be a "Rort" finder

53:30 "The Lumber Edge"

1:02:15 Dead edges

1:17:15 Sizing & dealing w/ opposition

1:25:30 Career outlook

1:33:10 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This episode covers a lot of recent news, walks you through how to get started with automated API interaction and muses on  would you rather have a beer w/ the PM doomers or evangelists?

0:00 What would your first API project be?

24:45 News (Worst two weeks in PMs?)

1:05:30 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

For months our podcast has neglected one of the most interesting segments of prediction markets - "Mention Markets". Well no longer! Today we interview Foster, one of the best mention market traders currently operating.

He talks about building a database for Football announcers, pricing Trump's speeches, and some hilarious stories from the mention market trenches. Can't miss! Follow Foster on Twitter: https://x.com/Foster

0:00 Intro

3:15 Video Game Advantage play & Casino Work

11:00 Starting on Prediction Markets

33:00 Non-sports Markets Master Class

51:30 Originating in Mention Markets

1:26:00 RFQs

1:45:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

We get deep in our feelings in this episode. SP and GP talk about some of their worst downswings and how they have learned to handle them. A long discussion of the pros & cons of requester ids follows and then some great Q&A.

0:00 Downswings & Mixing Life + Betting

41:15 RFQ IDs: Should they be shown?

1:01:00 Rest of News

1:12:50 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

NERD ALERT!!

We get back to our roots today and talk about how to go about finding stats that are predictive in sports modelling. The episode includes a deep dive into how Kalshi settled & communicated their "Khamenei out as leader" market. We touch on the issues w/ "last traded price" settlement and the similarities to the Cardi B. rules debacle. 

0:00 Predictive Sports Stats

31:45 Iran Leader Kalshi Market

45:50 Rest of News.

54:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

*This is a re-broadcast episode because of being unable to record because of travel. MANY FAMOUS PODCASTS DO THIS SO IT MUST BE OKAY. This episode is a good listen for those who are looking to build a basic sports model that spits out a useful number.

Feeling overwhelmed when considering the jump from +EV betting to building your own model?

We don't blame you. The little content there is out there on how to get started makes it sound impossible. But the reality is, in the beginning, it's rather straightforward.

In this episode, the boys help you get started with your first sports betting model before getting into the news and Q&A

0:00 Intro
2:30 How to Build Sports Models
55:51 News
1:15:30 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we have on college junior & top prediction market trader Eric (Egzee). Egzee started on OddsJam and quickly worked his way up to the top of Kalshi leaderboards as one of the biggest RFQ market makers in sports. He defends his decision to take an internship at a respected quant firm, and walks us through how he manages one of the biggest Kalshi MM operations as a solo-operator in college. Really mind blowing stuff here - must listen, we learned a lot from Eric.

0:00 Intro & Sports Betting Start

18:00 Transition to Kalshi

55:00 RFQs and Advanced Automation

1:21:00 School & Deciding to do an Internship

1:38:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The boys start to think insider trading MAY JUST BE A PROBLEM when thousands of minimum wage employees already know the resolution of 50 million contract markets. SP & GP also recap their superbowl betting experience on Kalshi and take questions.

0:00 Intro

1:45 GP & SP's Super Bowl betting

27:15 Cardi B's Epic Performance

47:00 Insider Trading on PMs

1:01:14 Rest of News

13:40 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

IN THIS EPISODE WE ARE JOINED BY ESTEEMED GAMBLING TWITTER POSTER AND ORIGINATOR MR PEANUTBETTOR. LISTEN TO HEAR MANY SMART THINGS AND SOME FUNNY JOKES.

0:00 Intro

10:15 Trading at Deck Prism

27:00 Originating

57:00 Prediction Markets

1:18:00 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

A heated debate broke out on Twitter between sharp bettors. On one end Establish the Run, a well respected business that sells information to bettors. On the other - sharp sports bettors who either use or have to deal with that information in their market.

This debate highlights the fundamental issues that come with selling good information in sports betting, and more broadly the best way to monetize sharp information (JUST BET IT BRO v. Selling)

0:00 Intro

2:15 ETR & The Challenge of Sharp Touting

43:45 News

1:00:15 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week we interview long-time professional gambler Adam aka BeagleBets (https://x.com/thebeaglebets).

Adam quickly rose to the top of the Heads Up SNG ladder, playing $5k buy-ins before dropping out of college to pursue poker full time. From there his career spanned many eras, which got him to where he is today: betting NBA Player Props and betting live sports. Adam is a very kind to share an honest account of the ups and downs of life as a professional bettor, along with advice to those who want to do this full-time but maintain a family and personal life. So much fun to record this one.

0:00 Intro

2:30 Start with advantage play

5:00 Full-time poker

13:15 Adding sports when poker got tougher

22:30 Building sims & scaling sports betting

30:15 Manually betting NBA player props

50:30 Transition to live betting

1:04:20 How to have a long betting career

1:21:40 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

In this episode the boys talk about how to go about selecting props & derivatives markets to focus on and how to get started w/ modeling these. The Pick6 past-post scandal takes up a good chunk of the news and the Q&A is very meaty!

0:00 How to Pick Props to Bet

27:00 DK Pick6 Past-post

45:45 Other News

1:01:45 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

You may know him from Bet The Process. You may know him as Dogname atop the Kalshi leaderboard. You may know him as the best golf bettor (RIP GP) around...

Rufus Peabody joins the show this week to talk about his betting philosophy and his recent adventure into prediction markets. He's been winning at sports betting since 2008, and is still at the very top of the betting ecosystem today. Must listen!

0:00 Intro

2:00 Starting in Betting

17:00 Going out on Own

23:00 Getting Started w/ Golf

28:30 Exploring New Sports

43:00 What is Rufus' edge?

1:101:15 Prediction Markets

1:32:55 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

We cap off the year with a fun episode where SP and GP recap their 2025 betting year before setting some 2026 goals. The episode ends with 2026 industry predictions and some sappy feelings.

0:00 Intro

6:00 2025 Recap

22:10 2026 "Ins & Outs"

1:07:30 2026 Predictions

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

We did it. We bagged another big guest's first ever podcast appearance. You may know Louie from Twitter (https://x.com/LMastro99) - but if you don't, he has had great success on both sides of the counter as a sportsbook trader and NBA originator. He started at FanDuel before being one of the first people to join NoVig and growing their trading team w/ former guest BigBuckHunter.

0:00

1:30 Getting started with FanDuel

22:30 Leaving FD for NoVig

30:50 Internal Market Making

46:45 Modeling Philosophy

1:13:00 The 3 P's Of Betting

1:17:00 Tout Thoughts

1:32:20 Biggest Exchange Money Makers

1:41:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we rip a hot takes episode and talk about how Kalshi has just invented the Parlay. Tons of great questions at the end - thanks for all those who asked a question!

0:00 Intro

2:20 Hot Takes

35:00 News

58:30 Questions

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This could be consider our first full Prediction Market focused guest. CSP Trading was an early MM on prediction markets before we had even heard of them. He walks us through the history of PMs through his experience trading on them and growing with the space to where they are now.

0:00 Getting Started in PMs

13:24 Early Prediction Market War Stories

37:45 Insider Trading in PMs

45:00 Getting Into Sports

56:30 Market Making Strategies

1:33:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

SP and GP talk about times being manual has made them more money than being automated and have a huge post-mortem on the old version of Pick6 where they both lay out most of their strategies. News is crazy as always - Poly US coming, Kalshi & Robinhood breakup, Prime plays it straight w/ winning bettors.

Then a big Q&A!

0:00 Intro

1:15 Why Being Manual is Sometimes Better Than Being Automated

22:20 Pick6 Tell-All

44:00 News

1:23:15 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Huge day - we get Pads (https://x.com/padadiso) to come on his first podcast ever! Pads is one of the most successful bettors of the post-PASPA era, making most of his money live betting on sportsbooks and now exchanges. 

He talks live betting, joining discords, doing terrible things to Fliff and why it's almost impossible to replicate his edge.

Thank you to Pads for coming on and thank you all for your questions!

0:00 Intro to Advantage Play

9:10 Joining Discords, Buying Tools and Content

15:15 Crushing Live Betting

44:00 Joining BookieBeats

53:30 Prediction Market Taking isn't Dead

1:16:15 Going Public on Twitter

1:21:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we share the biggest lessons we have learned from posting liquidity on exchanges and taking bets. GP has some more empathy for sportsbooks in some spots and none in others while SP is shocked with how few people have an opinion in today's sharp betting ecosystem.

0:00 Things We Learned Posting Liquidity

39:10 DK/FD Go for it on PMs

50:00 Kalshi on PrizePicks & other news

1:08:00 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

AP of 50+ years, host of Gambling with an Edge and author of Gambling Wizards - Richard Munchkin (https://x.com/RWM21) joins the show. From his start as an AP in old Las Vegas to the end where he shares the most...interesting(?) Bayesian update, this episode is a ride. Richard's story telling is unmatched in the industry - and he has a career of professional gambling to draw content from. We talk about his early days, and what he's doing now with regards to sports betting and other casino games. Can't miss episode!

0:00 Intro

2:45 How Richard Started w/ AP play

12:00 Lost Skill of Being Willing to Battle

22:00 Best Disguise Stories

28:15 Networking & Working w/ Teams

33:15 Traveling the World as an AP

46:45 Getting the Money Out is King

56:30 How to Scout Games

1:18:00 Why Richard Does Content

1:39:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013