Chinese private security companies (PSCs) are beginning to expand their influence in the global security market, with thousands of these companies now operating in over 40 countries. Despite legal restrictions preventing them from being armed, these firms are increasingly finding ways to circumvent such regulations. This raises critical questions: Will China leverage these companies to bypass international rules, engage in grey-zone combat, or establish footholds for future military bases abroad? We delve into these issues with our expert panel. On the panel this week: - Carl Peterson (Militant Wire) - Nick Thompson (Anduril) - Alessandro Arduino (King’s College London) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:38 PART 2 - 30:11 PART 3 - 45:35 Outro - 59:02 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support The Red Line at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Venezuela has been thrust into chaos following the recent election, leaving President Maduro, the opposition, and the military cornered. Years of escalating tensions with Guyana over the Essequibo region have reached a critical point, risking both the strength of the Venezuelan military and the possibility of a broader regional conflict. This episode examines the buildup to potential war, how the election has intensified these events, and whether the Venezuelan military can fulfil Maduro's promise of forcefully annexing Guyana? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Kejal Vyas (Wall Street Journal) - Gisela Salim-Peyer (The Atlantic) - Evan Ellis (US Army War College) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 06:08 PART 2 - 30:44 PART 3 - 45:37 Outro - 1:14:47 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support The Red Line at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the world stands on the brink of a new era in nuclear warfare, attention now shifts to the United States' ambitious modernisation programs and the burgeoning arms race in nuclear weapons development. This surge in advancement raises pivotal questions about the future of global security, the balance of power, and the implications of cutting-edge atomic technologies. Yet, these moves also ignites an international arms race, with nations scrambling to not only match but surpass each other's nuclear capabilities. Amid this whirlwind of technological escalation and strategic repositioning, the essential question arises: How will the United States navigate this new nuclear landscape, balance the thin line between deterrence and aggression, and what implications will this arms race have for global peace? To dissect these complex issues, we ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Andrew Futter (Uni of Leicester) - William Alberque (IISS) - Donald N. Jensen (USIP) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 05:30 PART 2 - 26:59 PART 3 - 49:35 Outro - 1:01:37 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With a new cold war between the USA and China looming on the horizon the balance of power in Asia is being drawn up, with Beijing and Washington vying for influence in the region. Of all the nations of importance though none will be as crucial as Indonesia.  Set to be the 4th largest economy by the year 2050 Indonesia is quickly becoming a regional leader, one that could dictate the direction for ASEAN and SE Asia for decades to come. So we sat down with our expert panel to talk about the future of this soon to be giant.  On the panel this week Kyle Springer (US Asia Centre) Natalie Sambhi (Verve Research) Gordon Flake (US Asia Centre) For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod or Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What was once considered a Soviet lake is now quickly becoming one of the most important strategic locations in the region, with Russia working hard to maintain its grip over the sea. The important part though may be what lies beneath its surface, that being enough gas to power Europe and blunt Russia's gas monopoly.  So whoever controls the Caspian, will have major leverage over the European powers, but to discuss this further we turn to our expert panel.  Eugene Chausovsky (Centre for Global Policy) Stanislav Printchin (ECED) Robert M Cutler (NATO Canada) For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod or Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week we take a deep dive into how to manipulate elections, whilst breaking open a large story connecting Brexit and the Russian ambassador. We also go through how Murdoch consolidates media outlets, how foreign nations conduct PsyOps as well as how companies likely Cambridge Analytica are hired to swing elections.  3 big stories on the 1 year anniversary of the show.  with KEVIN RUDD (Fmr Australian Prime Minister) NICK MUTCH (The Daily Beast, Der Spiegel) WILLIAM MARCELLINO (RAND Corporation) For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod or Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Smashed between Russia and China, Mongolia has a difficult position to begin with; but it was from that position that it once managed to create the largest contiguous empire known to man.  What is the situation in Mongolia today though? Why has Mongolia become a peacemaker in Asia? and where does the future for Mongolia lie, In Moscow, in Beijing or in Washington? We sit down with our expert panel this week.  Morris Rossabi (Columbia University) Andrew Leung (International Consultant) Julian Dierkes (University of British Columbia) For more details visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Or Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The US has now been at war in Afghanistan for almost 20 years, and three administrations have all failed to find a solution to this war. Now the clock is ticking, with the Taliban gaining more and more ground every day, and the US risks a second "Rout from Saigon". So the US is looking to a peace deal, but will it actually bring stability to the region or simply further splinter an already expanding civil war.  This week's guests are Sahar Khan (CATO) John Glaser (CATO) Jarrett Blanc (Carnegie) For more info visit www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Somalia is often referred to as a failed state, with the nation being fractured into 4 parts, piracy and Al Shabaab controlling large chunks of the country, but Somalia seems to be getting back on its feet now.  What will this mean for the rest of East Africa, and who might be working to knock Somalia back down? We speak to our panel of experts about the regional ramifications. This weeks panel is Omar Mahmood (Crisis Group) Degan Ali (Adeso Africa) Alex De Waal (Tufts University) Follow the show on >> @theredlinepod or Michael on >> @MikeHilliardAus More info at www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

India is fast becoming one of the world's great powers, set to take the number 2 or 3 slot by 2050. This is unless another country were to derail India's current path, and the list of potential derailers is fairly long.  So this week we take a look into who will be India's great strategic threats over the next 3 decades, and where India sits in the power struggle for leadership of South Asia today.  This weeks guests are Swaminathan Aiyar (CATO Institute) Dhruva Jaishankar (ORF/Brookings) Harsh V Pant (Kings College London) More Info available at - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show at @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Thailand has for a long time been the centerpiece of South East Asia, and many powers are starting to relearn its importance when it comes to shifting the direction of the region.  With the boom in internationalism and regional trade, we also see a boom for drug cartels as well; so this week we layout just how chemicals in Southern China travel through a number of nations to be sold as Methamphetamine on the streets of Vancouver and Sydney.  Guests this week are  Matt Wheeler Josh Kurlantzick John Coyne More info at www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show at @TheRedLinePod or @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kosovo has spent the last 2 decades fighting for its own independence, but with ever-increasing obstacles standing in their way will this mountainous nation ever achieve its lifelong dream?  This week we take a look into the Western Balkans, Serbia's geopolitical aspirations, as well as Moscow's re-entry into an area it once viewed as its own backyard; and what it means for the future of the Kosovan people.  On this episode Marija Ristic (Balkan Insight) Bodo Weber (Democratization Policy Council) Vessela Tcherneva (European Council on Foreign Relations) More info at www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Or Michael on @MikeHilliardAus   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When we covered the Libyan Civil War in February it looked like Haftar was about to be victorious, shelling the very gates of his enemies capital in Tripoli; but 5 months can make all of the difference.  The GNA has turned the tide and now Haftar is on the run and held up in the fortress city of Sirte, taking the city though may mean Turkey and Russia escalating to all-out war.  This weeks guests are Jalel Harchauoi (Clingendael Institute) Frederic Wehrey (Carnegie Centre) Jonathon Winer (Fmr Asst Secretary of State for the USA) Find more info at - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show at @TheRedLinePod or Michael the host at @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Europe is banking on Poland to valiantly secure its Eastern frontier, recognising its pivotal role along the CSTO's Western border and Poland's steadfast backing of Ukraine. However, a deeper examination reveals tensions between Warsaw and Brussels over everything from legal standards to concerns about recent large-scale procurements, raising questions about Poland's integration within the EU framework. With Poland's economic position and its role in European defence under the microscope, a critical question emerges: Can Poland effectively balance its commitment to regional security with its EU obligations, and what impact will its disputes with the EU have on its political future within the bloc? To answer that, we turn to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Mujtaba Rahman (Eurasia Group) - Michał Baranowski (GMF) - Edward Hunter Christie (FIIA) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 05:20 PART 2 - 22:07 PART 3 - 37:06 Outro - 1:04:23 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The South China sea is the new battleground between Beijing and Washington with the winner controlling the trades routes; and therefore the future of Asia. Caught in the middle is The Philippines, now torn between their military partners in Washington and their economic partners in Beijing, with the decision-maker being a wildly popular president accused of numerous human rights abuses. Manila is the linchpin for both sides, and we ask our guests in which direction the nation is heading.  This weeks guests are Aaron Jed Rabena (Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress) Sheena Greitens (Brookings Institute) Derek Grossman (RAND Corperation) Oriana Skylar Mastro (Stanford University) For more information visit www.theredlinepodcast.com Or follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Or follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

While everyone has their eyes on its imploding neighbours Guyana is entering its own new phase, one that is likely to make it one of the world's next big geopolitical flashpoints. With Iranian missiles, Cambridge Analytica buying elections, and a country up for sale this isolated jungle nation could be the next launchpad to threaten the world superpower at home. Thie week we sit down with Brittany Kaiser (Cambridge Analytica Whistleblower) Ivelaw Griffiths (International Institute for Strategic Studies) Michael Unbehauen (US Army/Acamar Consulting) Find more info on the show at - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Often referred to as the North Korea of Central Asia, Turkmenistan is simply a desert of contradictions. A nation where you memorize poems to get your driver's license, where the president raps on TV, and where many Guinness world records are broken; but more importantly a nation of starving people on top of the 4th largest gas reserves in the world. We go deeper into this reclusive society and talk about their abandonment of Moscow and their newfound masters in Beijing, as well as how this country tries its best to stay neutral in a very dangerous geopolitical neighborhood. Guests this week are Peter Leonard (Eurasianet) Naz Nazar (Radio Free Europe) Alexander Cooley (Harriman Institute) More info at -- www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on - @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on - @MikeHilliardAus Support the show on - https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the South Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan lies an island of Armenians in the middle of Azerbaijan, two countries now firmly at war with each other. The Armenians have invaded and now occupy a quarter of the Azeris territory, but they assert are only doing to protect their people from the government who threatens to "cleanse" the pocket of Armenians.  A complicated conflict with Russia selling to both sides and Turkey (and therefore NATO) obligated to defend the other, this war is a classic situation of "the tail wagging the dog". Will we see another 1914 with a small mountain nation dragging the great powers into war, well for that we turn to our experts? Svante Cornell (Institue for Security and Development) Tyrone Shaw (Conflict Zone Author) Thomas De Waal (Carnegie Europe) More details >> www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

There are few geopolitical flashpoints in the world more dangerous than North Korea, and with instability at the top of the regime we can add another layer of complexity to an already shaky situation; one that few people truly understand. USA, China, Seoul and Pyongyang all have competing goals and needs to keep their own domestic politics in check, but some of those goals infringe upon others, and with a few minor missteps the Korean peninsula could easily break out in full war again. The difference this time is that there are 60+ nuclear weapons to factor into the equation.  So this week with sit down with Eric Gomez (CATO) Jacob Bogle (Access DPRK) Soo Kim (RAND/CIA/DHS) More information on --- www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After a 30 year war with Sudan, South Sudan finally gained its independence, but with no external enemy, a power vacuum quickly told hold. Two men lead a nation into a civil war that destroyed the country and broke the future for this African nation even further.  Now peace talks are starting again and people are wondering if this will this be the peace deal that finally brings stability, or will the nation once again backslide into mass slaughter? That decision lies in the hand of just two men, the same two who started this war almost 7 years ago. Guests this week are Alan Boswell Ahmed Soliman John Campbell More info at ---  www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @theredlinepod Or Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The coldest battlefield in the world is opening up, and old regional rivalries are beginning to flare. This is moving trade routes from the US's backyard toward the Russians. A battle is about to begin for the far North, but only one side is really prepared. Russia is rolling out Arctic divisions, new bases and groundbreaking new missiles which threaten the US naval dominance across the world's oceans. Are these new missiles going to make carriers obsolete or are they just the next step in the rapidly changing landscape? We pose this question to our panel of experts. This weeks experts  Marlene Laurelle Stephanie Pezard Paul Josephson Rob Huebert More info available at - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @theredlinepod or Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Private militaries or PMC's have been popping up in all of the worlds conflict zones, guns for hire being paid to the dirty work nation-states don't want to do. Is this the future of war or is this a slippery slope that takes all the accountability out of the battlefield? This week we do a deep dive into the Wagner group (Putin's private army) and Blackwater/Frontier Services Group (Erik Princes Hong Kong-based White House hit squad). We go through what they have been up to, and where they are likely to pop up over the next few years Guests this week are Sean McFate Alex Kirsch Sahar Khan and Candace Rondeaux Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus More info at www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Venezuela, home to the largest proven oil reserves in the world was once the jewel of South America, the envy of the Latin world, but now the country sits on the brink of collapse.  Venezuela has gone so far now that other nations like China, Russia, and the US have begun circling like hungry vultures, looking to smash apart the nation and divide up the assets. So this week we sit down and ask where will it all go, how did we get here and what is next for this South American titan. Giancarlo Fiorella -  (Bellingcat institute) Nick Mutch - (Conflict Journalist) Christopher Sabatini -  (Chatham House) More info at -- www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Libyan civil war is ramping to a climax, general Haftars forces have arrived at the gates on the capital Tripoli and the entire world is taking sides. Russia, the UAE, Turkey, France, Italy, Qatar and Egypt are all throwing fuel onto this already raging fire, not realising those flames are unlikely to remain contained inside Libya.  Three huge guests for this episode.  Jonathon Winer (Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the USA) Jalel Harchaoui  Tarek Magerisi For more information check out -- www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Businesses considering the great decoupling from China face the dilemma of finding a new manufacturing hub, with India emerging as a popular choice due to its large workforce, affordable labour, and investor-friendly leadership. However, a closer examination reveals complexities in India's economy, raising questions about its readiness to replace China as the world's factory and its ability to navigate challenges still hampering India's growth. Can India replace China in the global supply chain, we ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Velina Tchakarova (FACE) - Ashoka Mody (Princeton) - Arjun Ramani (The Economist) - Michael Kugelman (Wilson Center) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:39 PART 2 - 10:31 PART 3 - 38:44 PART 4 - 1:00:55 Outro - 1:17:40 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Foreign aid is one of the most misunderstood parts of any nations budget, why would a country give money to another country when they have hungry people at home? What people may not realise is that that 0.22% of your budget may be the only thing standing between you and your enemy setting up its armed forces in your backyard.  This weeks guests are  Matt Mcdonald Tess Newton Cain and Will Clapton More info at >> www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Every month we seem to escalate the tensions with Iran, drawing Iran and the West closer and closer into large scale conflict. One that would likely drag in the rest of the nations in the Middle-East and then crash the world economy. This week we sit down with 4 expert witnesses to go through exactly how difficult an invasion of Iran will be, and what risks we would be taking on to do so.  www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kyrgyzstan stands at one of the most important decisions the country will ever make about its future, to look toward Moscow or to look toward Beijing.... The Kyrgyz people live upon some of the most important real estate in all of Asia, and now all the superpowers are beginning to compete for access to this vital crossroad. Guests are Chris Schwatz - (University of Leuven) Erica Marat - (National Defence University) Alexander Cooley (Columbia University) For more information please visit  >> www.theredlinepodcast.com   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

2020 is set to be one of the most impactful years for human history, where we will make choices that will steer our future for a decade to come. With critical elections, wars, and crises set to shape the next 12 months, next year will be year will we discuss in history classes for generations. We sit down with three of the world's top experts to see what they think will be the biggest stories for 2020. This weeks guests are Andrew Hindmoor (University of Sheffield) Jake Hanrahan (Popular Front) and Brian Glyn Williams (CIA and NSA advisor) For more information please visit  >> www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Between Moldova and Ukraine lies the breakaway republic of Transnistria the last nation to hold the hammer and sickle upon its flag, this unrecognized nation doesn't exist on any map but does hold the entire balance of power in Eastern Europe. This is the last barrier between the encroachment of the EU and the heartlands of Russia, so to better understand this breakaway republic we turn to 3 expert witnesses. The week we speak to  Tyrone Shaw (University of Northern Vermont) Dmitri Tokarev (University of Tiraspol) Kristaps Andrejsons (Host of the Eastern Border) For more information please visit  >> www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The UK has been polarised and dragged to a stop over the biggest issue to face the country since WW2....Brexit. With the government paralyzed the mandate has been turned back to the people with an early election, son we sit down with 3 expert guests to analyze what each party stands for and what they offer to right the path of Britain.  Guests this week Peter Sloman (University of Cambridge) Imke Henkel (University of Lincoln) Alan Wager (Kings College London) For more information please visit  >> www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Yemen is currently the home to the worst humanitarian crisis of our time, with a civil war that has dragged in countries from all around the globe. This small desert country is now the 5-way battleground for the world's powers, with the world's oil routes at stake. Guests for this episode are Helen Lackner (Oxford University) Laura Kasinof (The New York Times) and Thomas Small (BAFTA award-winning documentary maker) For more information please visit  >> www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Housing and shelter is one of the most basic needs a person has, but all around the world it is increasingly difficult for people to obtain a house of their own. The board is being stacked against many of us, and this may be the thing that brings the Australian economy down with it. Is there a recession coming in Australia? We pose this question to our expert guests. This shows guests are Graham Cooke (Finder.com.au) Alex Saunders (Nuggets News) Peter Tinley (Minister of Housing in WA) Jakob Madson (Professor of Macroeconomics) Hosted by Michael Hilliard For more information please visit www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Only swimming distance from the borders of Australia lies the island of Guinea, where half the population is currently fighting to become free from an increasingly strict Indonesian government.  Its an issue we need to talk about with helicopters, phosphorus and corruption all throughout, with people dying every day at the hand of one of our closest neighbours. This week we chat to 3 expert witnesses about the West Papuan movement. Raki Ap (One of the leading voices on the West Papuan movement) Dr Janet Steele (The director for the institute of public diplomacy and global communication) Jason Macleod (Teaches civil resistance training and education for people in non democracies at the university of Sydney). For more info you can follow The Red Line at www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It has been 18 years since NATO declared war on Afghanistan, and what do we have to show for it? Where is the war at today? Im joined by three expert witnesses who are going to give us Afghanistans past, present and likely future.  This weeks guests are  Brian Glyn Williams (CIA and NSA expert on Afghanistan) Thomas Barfield (Professor of Anthropology at Boston university) Suma Sayeed (Advisor to the State Department in Afghanistan) You can follow the show on Twitter >> @theredlinepod Facebook >> @theredlinepod www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Russia's naval forces, structured around six distinct fleets, are navigating turbulent waters in the current geopolitical climate. While all six of these fleets have seen modest improvements, especially in their submarine capabilities, the conflict in Ukraine is now stretching resources thin, with senior figures from within the Navy warning that the Army's problem today, is going to be the Navy's problem tomorrow. This looming situation poses critical questions, like how will Russia's navy will adapt to these emerging challenges, and what programs are likely to face the chopping block when times get tough? So to help us answer those questions, we turn to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Nick Childs (IISS) - Mark Galeotti (RUSI) - H. I. Sutton (Covert Shores) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:44 PART 2 - 27:40 PART 3 - 50:16 Outro - 1:10:33 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sudan is entangled in a rapidly escalating civil war, marked by widespread protests, violent clashes, and an alarming surge in refugees fleeing the turmoil. Amidst this chaos, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) swift advances are now intensifying fears of a potential state collapse, one that would likely plunge the region into chaos. With a fragmented government and military embroiled in enforcing their contentious autocratic rule, Sudan's path to peace appears increasingly precarious. So why are more and more outside actors getting involved here? What happens if the state does collapse, and who is supplying these forces with the means to wage this war? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Will Brown (CSIS) - Joe Siegle (ACSS) - Will Carter (Norwegian Refugee Council) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 07:03 PART 2 - 29:20 PART 3 - 49:16 Outro - 1:02:37 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Argentina's incoming president, Milei, was queried about reclaiming the Falkland Islands for Argentina, following the path of his predecessors by vowing to seek their reclamation. These claims, coupled with intense media scrutiny, have fueled increasing speculation about a potential second invasion of the Falkland Islands. But are these speculations well-founded, or merely ongoing rhetoric? Will these threats intensify into a more significant conflict between Argentina and the UK, and if so, how might such a conflict unfold? We present these questions to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Tim Fish (Shepherd Land Systems) - Wilder Alejandro Sanchez (Second Floor Strategies) - Kevin Fleming (Kings College London) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:00 PART 2 - 22:32 PART 3 - 33:15 Outro - 45:09 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As unrest simmers throughout the Middle East, echoes of the initial Arab Spring resonate amid similar economic triggers, fueling speculation about a potential second wave. Many are beginning to ask: Is a second Arab Spring on the horizon? Where is the spark likely to come from, and have the governments in the region fortified their strategies to quell such popular uprisings? We put these questions and more to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - David Schenker (Washington Inst) - Michael Sexton (Third Way National Security) - Rich Outzen (Atlantic Council) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:07 PART 2 - 22:00 PART 3 - 42:22 Outro - 1:01:55 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The unsettling trend of Extrajudicial Killings is on the rise. A method once used mainly by the US and Russia is now being increasingly adopted by many more countries, mostly targeting defectors and opposition living abroad. With these methods ostensibly looking like a path for governments to end their most vocal opposition without consequences, the appeal is certainly clear. However, some worry that the normalization of these incidents may lead to a future where killings of controversial figures become more and more frequent on a global scale? We put this to our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Sean McFate (Georgetown) - Andrei Soldatov (CEPA) - Greg Miller (Washington Post) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 06:38 PART 2 - 28:22 PART 3 - 52:02 Outro - 1:02:18 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hong Kong, is witnessing an unprecedented erosion of its "One Country, Two Systems" framework, as China tightens its grip on the region. The once clear demarcation of autonomy is now blurred, with pro-democracy aspirations clashing against Beijing's relentless advance. Beijing economically needs Hong Kong to remain open to the West, but politically worries about its effect on the mainland. So this week we sit down with our panel of distinguished experts, to unravel the complexities of this delicate situation, explore the implications of China’s moves here in Hong Kong and shed light on the intricate web of illicit financial flows and covert operations in play. On the panel this week:  - John Fowler (International Intrigue) - John Coyne (ASPI) - Dan Harris (Harris Sliwoski) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:37 PART 2 - 21:43 PART 3 - 37:20 Outro - 57:14 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Moldova, flanked by the complex dynamics of Eastern Europe, currently stands at a critical juncture in its geopolitical fate, as the simmering conflict in Transnistria, exasperated by the recent upheavals in Ukraine, has crafted a unique tableau of challenges and opportunities for both sides. Moldova's conventional forces and Transnistria's Russian-backed units each face unique pressures and advantages in this evolving context and both Moldova and Transnistria are being nudged into recalibrating their strategies or risk being swept into the storm of wider regional strife. Will Moldova's military reforms lend them a crucial edge, will the Transnistria conflict ignite into a full-blown confrontation, and how does the broadening Eastern European turmoil shape this potential flashpoint? To answer that we turn to our panel of experts: On the panel this week:  - James Ker-Lindsay (Uni of Kent) - Dan Darling (Forecast International) - Stephen Blank (FPRI) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:07 PART 2 - 23:06 PART 3 - 49:09 Outro - 58:55 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/       Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the dust settles on what has turned out to be South Africa's most crucial election since 1994, the nation finds itself standing on a knife's edge. Persistent issues have continued to escalate, leaving the country more politically divided than ever before. Now, with an unexpected and unlikely political alliance at the helm, South Africa faces a deep period of uncertainty. Given the current economic trends, the country has only a narrow window of five years to reverse its trajectory. With the clock ticking, can this coalition implement the necessary changes to steer South Africa back towards stability and prosperity, or will the erosion continue, paving the way for more extreme parties and policies? Will this new alliance rekindle a national renaissance and begin a new chapter for South Africa? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Sisonke Msimang (Writer and Activist) - Martin Plaut (Institute of Commonwealth Studies) - Carien Du Plessis (The Africa Report) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:59 PART 2 - 33:15 PART 3 - 58:52 Outro - 1:19:44 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support The Red Line at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Iran, ensnared by its mountainous borders, now faces multifaceted threats from all directions and their strategic position is becoming increasingly perilous along every axis. Neighbours like Azerbaijan and Pakistan now pose mounting challenges to national stability, while inaction also risks problems fermenting elsewhere. As Iran's now overstretched military copes with multiple engagements across the region already, the Iranian military, defence industry and IRCG are being warned that they must undergo structural reforms or be crushed from all sides. But will the Iranian military embrace the reforms, will recent tensions in the Caucasus draw Iran into the conflict, and would a deepening relationship with Russia or China salvage Iran's hard-fought strategic gains? We ask our panel of experts On the panel this week:  Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:45 PART 2 - 28:46 PART 3 - 50:56 Outro - 67:23 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Once the murder capital of the world, El Salvador finds itself grappling with both gang violence and geopolitical shifts. Between 2013 and 2016, murder rates soared due to gang wars and systemic extortion. President Nayib Bukele, emerging from this tumult, removes the safety catches from the government and actually tackles the issue. However, all of this is coming at a long-term cost. How does Bukele's regional vision mesh with the complexities of Central American geopolitics, and does this new path set Bukele on a collision course with the US? Join us as we dissect El Salvador's evolving position on the world stage. On the panel this week are: - Robert Guest (The Economist) - Nik McNally (The Red Line) - Margaret Myers (Inter-American Dialogue) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:04 PART 2 - 24:29 PART 3 - 42:59 Outro - 54:44 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The potential conflict between India and Pakistan stands at a precipice of alarming complexity, as the two nuclear-armed neighbours navigate a tangled web of historical tensions, territorial disputes, and geopolitical ambitions, and with India's rapidly evolving military capabilities and strategic partnerships, the landscape of South Asian defence dynamics is shifting. The theoretical pitfalls of a confrontation between these nations would have far-reaching implications, not just for the subcontinent, but for the global order. From cyber warfare to conventional battles, what would a war between India and Pakistan entail? We ask our panel of experts to unpack the scenarios, strategies, and stakes posed by this conflict: On the panel this week: - Chris Clary (Uni of Albany) - Arzan Tarapore (CISC) - Christine Fair (Georgetown) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:01 PART 2 - 30:40 PART 3 - 53:51 Outro - 1:13:51 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The economic feasibility of Nuclear Power is under an unprecedented microscope, with evolving energy solutions and changing market dynamics, the mathematical foundation that once supported the nuclear industry's robustness is now slipping. While traditional energy giants like the US, France, and Russia grapple with the shifting sands of economic viability, emergent green energy leaders are questioning the place of nuclear power in tomorrow's energy mosaic. Is nuclear energy a mere bridging solution in our transition to a carbon-neutral future, or is it an unsustainable relic of the past? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Paul Dorfman (SPRU) - David Schlissel (IEEFA) - James Acton (CEIP) Intro: 00:00 PART 1: 05:32 PART 2: 22:30 PART 3: 33:56 Outro: 52:50 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

UUVs or Unmanned Underwater Vehicles, are set to make the same kind of impact that UAVs previously made on the modern battlefield. With their vast operational capacities and affordable price tags, we are not only seeing major players like the US, Russia, and China engaged in a dire dash for future ocean supremacy, but also several smaller players who previously were locked out of the subsurface battlespace due to the high costs of conventional submarines. Will these new weapons serve merely as long-range recon vehicles for the major powers, or will UUVs be at the forefront of seabed warfare and underwater infrastructure sabotage? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: H. I. Sutton (Covert Shores) Samuel Bendett (CNA) Bruce Jones (Brookings Inst.) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:06 PART 2 - 31:13 PART 3 - 47:51 Outro - 64:42 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Red Line has reached our 100th episode, and it has been an amazing journey putting all of these episodes together. But how accurate have our predictions been? We have been engaged in analysis and reporting for nearly 5 years now. So, we sat down and meticulously went through 2,000 pages of transcripts, episode by episode, to assess how many of our predictions on the show have come true and how many were incorrect. This week's episode features no guests, but rather includes clips from across all 100 episodes of the program. For more information, please visit our website. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Equatorial Guinea is one of the most puzzling countries in the world, with everything from coups involving Margaret Thatcher's son, to firing squads in Santa outfits operating in the country. However, far more worrying than that is the economic cliff the country seems to be barreling toward, with the industry, worth 90% of their income, announcing their departure from the country in 2026. Will Equatorial Guinea be able to steer the country away from the cliff? Will the Instagram star VP successfully transition into his father's role? And why is this country the strangest one we have ever covered? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Perri Grace (Geopolitical Analyst) - Max Lawson (Oxfam) - Florent Geel (Fmr FIDH Dir. Africa) - Emilia Columbo (CSIS) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:07 PART 2 - 15:29 PART 3 - 25:15 PART 4 - 33:46 Outro - 55:30 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices