The railway is a very complex system. RSSB has developed tools for the industry to assess and target some hazards, but not all of them. Much of our risk analysis knowledge is based on the Safety Risk Model (SRM), now in version 9. One response to some identifiable hazards is to impose a blanket speed restriction. These can cover wide areas, and may themselves actually increase some types of risk.
Being able to identify specific parts of the network that may be susceptible to increased risk under certain environmental conditions can help. Building on the knowledge within the SRM, RSSB has, with Network Rail, started to develop the Whole System Risk Model (WSRM). Prompted by the Carmont incident, it’s a project that will take some time, but it has to start somewhere.
03:00 About Marcus Dacre
03:30 Risk modelling work at RSSB
03:59 Modelling earthworks failures in the Precursor Indicator Model
05:12 RSSB’s involvement in responding to the RAIB recommendations to the Carmont incident
06:10 About the SRM
06:53 About Vincent Ganthy
07:34 Vincent’s focus on overall risk created by extreme rainfall events
09:00 Differences between the SRM and the WSRM
10:15 Establishing the level of network vulnerability
11:41 How the WSRM supports operational decision making
13:11 Current limitations and its potential for wider development
14:22 What we've found about the risk from speed restrictions
15:26 How to use the findings to respond to extreme rainfall events
16:11 Current testing and proving of the model
17:20 What’s next, the roadmap to extend the model
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