Explore every episode of the podcast The OPEX Effect
| Title | Pub. Date | Duration | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Rally No One Trusts | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next | 10 May 2025 | 01:03:38 | |
In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma break down the forces at play beneath the surface of the market as we head into the May 2025 options expiration (OPEX). While the S&P 500 has rallied hard, a deeper look at positioning, liquidity, volatility, and sentiment reveals a market on a potentially fragile footing. From the continued explosion of zero DTE options to concerning signs from liquidity metrics, this discussion explores how short-term positioning could dictate major moves—and why the post-OPEX landscape may not be as stable as it appears. Plus, yes… we finally explain the "Saul Goodman" reference. 🔑 Topics Covered: Why May’s OPEX setup is lopsided with call exposure—and why that’s dangerous The eerie lack of downside hedging despite a big market rally How zero DTE options and mean reversion flows are masking real volatility The dangerous illusion of low realized vol vs. wide intraday ranges Why poor liquidity is a potential precursor for the next volatility event Analysis of SPX vs. SPY positioning—and which one signals more risk The “Saul Goodman” signal: What it means and why it might be a contrarian tell What the data says about a potential flip post-OPEX June expiration on deck: Could it be the next volatility catalyst? | |||
| An Unprecedented Lack of Liquidity: What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next | 19 Apr 2025 | 00:59:35 | |
In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack and Brent dive deep into the market turmoil following "Liberation Day" and the implementation of new tariffs. With volatility spiking to levels not seen since the 2020 COVID crash, the hosts analyze how options markets are reacting, why liquidity has evaporated, and what investors should expect in this new higher-volatility regime. The conversation covers everything from VIX behavior to options positioning, and provides critical insights for navigating these turbulent markets. Key Topics Covered: The recent market volatility spike and why this represents a fundamental "regime change" How options market makers are reacting to the tariff announcements and subsequent 90-day pause Why liquidity has disappeared from markets and its impact on price movements The significance of this month's options expiration and VIX expiration Why zero-DTE options are NOT the cause of recent volatilityTechnical support and resistance levels based on options positioning Gold's recent surge and signs it may be ready for consolidation The impact of increased correlation across asset classesExpectations for upcoming earnings season and its importance in this environment | |||
| The OPEX Effect: July 2024 | Inside What is Driving This Weird Market | 16 Jul 2024 | 01:15:10 | |
In this episode of the OPEX Effect, we explore the current market rally and discuss the concept of "correlation spasms" - unusual movements and relationships between market components. We examine record low volatility, the outsize impact of mega-cap tech stocks, and the recent surge in small-caps. We analyze the prevalence of zero days-to-expiry options trading and its effects on intraday volatility. We consider potential scenarios for how current market imbalances may unwind and highlight key indicators to watch around the upcoming options expiration. Our goal is to provide insight into the complex forces driving markets, helping long-term investors better understand and contextualize daily market moves, even if they don't actively trade based on these shorter-term dynamics. DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectjuly2024 MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA https://www.spotgamma.com FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/spotgamma FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/practicalquant
| |||
| The OPEX Effect: June 2024 | GameStop Retrospective, Call Imbalance and Massive NVDA Interest | 18 Jun 2024 | 01:11:05 | |
In this month's episode of the OPEX Effect, we take a deep dive into the world of options flows and their impact on the markets. We discuss the recent GameStop saga and the role options played in the stock's wild ride. We also explore the concept of volatility suppression, the dispersion between mega-cap tech stocks like NVIDIA and the rest of the market, and the record-breaking streak of low volatility in the S&P 500. Finally, we analyze the extreme bloat in NVIDIA's options complex and what it means for investors. DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectjune2024 MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA https://www.spotgamma.com FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/spotgamma FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/practicalquant
| |||
| The Kitty is Roaring Again - Volatility Is Not | The OPEX Effect: May 2024 | 14 May 2024 | 00:50:11 | |
In this episode of the OpEx Effect, we discuss the current state of the market as we approach the May options expiration. We analyze the low levels of volatility and put demand, suggesting market participants are not too concerned about potential downside risks. We also examine the impact of key upcoming events, particularly the CPI report and NVIDIA earnings, and how they could influence market direction. Additionally, we explore the relationship between options activity and market sentiment and the importance of understanding these dynamics even for long-term investors. DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectmay2024.pdf MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA https://www.spotgamma.com FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/spotgamma FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/practicalquant
| |||
| The Return of Volatility | 16 Apr 2024 | 00:47:31 | |
In this episode of the OPEX Effect podcast, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand discuss the current market turmoil and its potential impact on options flows. They analyze how the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, coupled with rate volatility and the upcoming U.S. elections, is causing a shift in the market environment from a period of volatility suppression to one of increased volatility. The hosts examine various indicators, such as correlation, dispersion, and the VIX, to highlight the unwinding of previous market flows and the potential for a new volatility regime. They also discuss the implications of the VIX expiration occurring before the equity options expiration and how this could impact the market in the coming week. DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectapril2024.pdf MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA https://www.spotgamma.com FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/spotgamma FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/practicalquant
| |||
| The Nvidia Conundrum | The OPEX Effect | March 2024 | 12 Mar 2024 | 01:13:10 | |
The OPEX Effect looks at the impact of options flows on the market from the perspective of longer-term investors. In each episode, we break down what is going on behind the scenes in the options market and how the resulting flows are moving markets. In this episode, we take a deep dive into the March 2024 options expiration and its potential implications for the market. We discuss dealer positioning into the expiration, whether the call buying in the chip sector is showing signs of exhaustion, the relationship between gold and Bitcoin and forward stock returns, options positioning headed into Nvidia's upcoming major announcement and a lot more. DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectmarch2024.pdf MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA https://www.spotgamma.com FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/spotgamma FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/practicalquant | |||
| The OPEX Effect | February 2024 | Helping Long-Term Investors Understand Options Flows | 13 Feb 2024 | 01:07:42 | |
The OPEX Effect looks at the impact of options flows on the market from the perspective of longer-term investors. In each episode, we break down what is going on behind the scenes in the options market and how the resulting flows are moving markets. In this episode, we take a deep dive into the February 2024 options expiration and its potential implications for the market. We discuss the extreme level of call buying occurring in the tech space and what it might mean going forward. We also cover volatility, skew, the price of downside protection, tech domination of the S&P 500 and a lot more. DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK https://www.validea.com/documents/opexeffectfebruary2024.pdf MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA https://www.spotgamma.com FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/spotgamma FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/practicalquant
| |||
| Inside the January Options Expiration | 17 Jan 2024 | 01:04:24 | |
The OPEX Effect looks at the impact of options flows on the market from the perspective of longer-term investors. In each episode, we break down what is going on behind the scenes in the options market and how the resulting flows are moving markets. In this episode, we take a deep dive into the January 2024 options expiration and its potential implications for the market. We discuss why this expiration could be a significent market event, what the behind the scenes details of the expiration look like and why the story is even more interesting in single stocks than it is for the S&P 500. We also get an update on the MAG 7 stocks, look at why volatility has been muted and dicsuss the implications of the rise of 0DTE options. DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK https://www.validea.com/documents/opexeffectjanuary2024.pdf MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA https://www.spotgamma.com FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/spotgamma FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/practicalquant
| |||
| The OPEX Effect: December Expiration | S&P 500 Update, Small-Cap Surge, JP Morgan Collar | 12 Dec 2023 | 01:00:55 | |
THE OPEX Effect looks at the impact of options flows on the market from the perspective of longer-term investors. In each episode, we break down what is going on behind the scenes in the options market and how the resulting flows are moving markets. In this episode, we look at where things stand coming into the December 2023 options expiration. We look at dealer positioning in the S&P 500 headed into the expiration and what that might mean going forward. We discuss the setup in small-cap stocks, whether we are seeing excessive call buying in single stocks, the JP Morgan Collar trade and a lot more. DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK https://www.validea.com/documents/opexeffectdecember2023.pdf MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/spotgamma FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/practicalquant
| |||
| The OPEX Effect: November Expiration | 0DTE Options, S&P 500 Update, MAG 7 Positioning | 14 Nov 2023 | 01:06:40 | |
In our latest episode of the OPEX Effect, we discuss the upcoming November options expiration and what Brent is seeing in options markets leading into it. We also talk about the impact of 0DTE options on the market, the relationship between options expirations and VIX expirations, positioning in the Mag 7 stocks and a lot more. DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK https://www.validea.com/documents/opexeffectnovember2023.pdf MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/spotgamma FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/practicalquant FOLLOW JUSTIN ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau | |||
| The OPEX Effect: October Expiration | S&P 500, Bond Volatility, MAG 7, Ozempic Trade | 17 Oct 2023 | 00:54:50 | |
In our inaugural episode of the OPEX effect, Brent Kochuba, Jack Forehand and Justn Carbonneau look at the options market as we approach the October expiration and the big takeaways investors can take from it. We discuss the role options flows play in the market, look at current positioning in the S&P 500 market and also cover bonds, the MAG 7, the Ozempic trade and a lot more. DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK https://www.validea.com/documents/opexeffectoctober2023.pdf MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/spotgamma FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/practicalquant FOLLOW JUSTIN ON TWITTER | |||
| One of the Fastest Corrections in History: What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next | 15 Mar 2025 | 01:06:03 | |
In the latest episode of the OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba take a look behind the scenes of the big market selloff and the options flows driving it. They break down the massive options expiration coming up (the second-largest ever) and its potential impact on market movements.Key topics covered:Understanding the current high-volatility environment and why options volumes are driving increased market swingsAnalysis of the JPMorgan collar trade at the crucial 5565 level and its market implicationsDeep dive into the mysterious "Captain Condor" trader and their impact on market dynamicsDiscussion of multiple major events ahead: VIX expiration, FOMC meeting, quarterly OPEX, and potential tariff deadlineExamination of fixed-strike volatility and why traditional VIX readings might be misleading in the current environment | |||
| Danger in Market Calm? What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next | 19 Feb 2025 | 01:12:26 | |
In this episode, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba analyze the current state of the options market heading into the February 2024 options expiration. They explore several critical themes, including:Why volatility remains surprisingly low despite significant market-moving eventsThe unusual dynamic where large single-stock moves (like NVIDIA's historic drop) aren't translating into broader market volatilityThe concerning signs in correlation metrics that echo patterns from past market stress periodsThe critical role of NVIDIA's upcoming earnings as a potential catalystWhy the current environment shows signs of stretched positioning that could lead to future volatilityThe shifting dynamics in Tesla options and the broader implications for market sentimentBrent shares his unique insights on why we're seeing an environment where traders are responding to market drops by selling calls rather than buying puts, and what this means for market stability. He also breaks down why the upcoming NVIDIA earnings report on February 26th could be a pivotal event for market direction.Whether you're an options trader or just interested in understanding market dynamics, this discussion provides valuable insights into the forces currently shaping market behavior. | |||
| The Two Sides of Volatility | Inside the January Options Expiration | 15 Jan 2025 | 00:58:48 | |
Join Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand as they analyze the current market landscape and what options flows tell us about potential volatility ahead. The duo dives deep into why the market may be underpricing volatility risk despite a recent 5% drawdown, significant upcoming events, and shifting rate dynamics.Key topics covered:Why the current options market positioning suggests heightened volatility riskAnalysis of January options expiration and its potential market impactDeep dive into Tesla vs NVIDIA options positioning and what it means for both stocksThe evolution of zero DTE options trading and its real market impactHow dealer gamma positioning could amplify market movesBreaking down the correlation between different asset classes in the current environmentWhether you're an options trader, long-term investor, or market enthusiast, this episode provides valuable insights into the mechanics driving today's markets and what might lie ahead. Don't miss this detailed discussion of market structure, options flows, and potential catalysts that could drive significant moves in early 2025. | |||
| Tesla, MicroStrategy and An Inside Look at the Biggest Options Expiration in Market History | 18 Dec 2024 | 01:05:11 | |
Join Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand as they break down December's historic options expiration - the largest OpEx on record. In this deep-dive episode, they explore:Why this December OpEx is uniquely significant with over $1.9 trillion in options value expiringTesla's remarkable 75% surge since November and what the options market signals about its sustainabilityThe fascinating case of MicroStrategy, Bitcoin enthusiasm, and concerning signs of market euphoriaHow major market positioning could impact year-end tradingWhy extremely low volatility and deteriorating market breadth may be warning signsThe stark divide between mega-cap tech performance and the broader market00:00 - Welcome to The OpEx Effect - Biggest Options Expiration Ever00:35 - Why This OpEx Is Different: Record Volumes & Significance02:06 - Understanding Options Market Growth & Impact05:07 - Breaking Down the $1.9 Trillion in Options Value08:42 - Call vs Put Dominance (10:1 Ratio)15:07 - Record Low Volatility & Market Implications19:15 - Tesla's 75% Surge Since November23:30 - MicroStrategy, Bitcoin & Market Sentiment28:45 - Market Breadth Issues & Mega-Cap Divergence35:14 - The "Balloon Pop" Theory of Volatility42:17 - JP Morgan Collar & Market Pinning Effects47:16 - Cost of Portfolio Hedging at Historic Lows50:47 - Warning Signs: Margin Debt & Retail Speculation54:27 - The Problem with MicroStrategy's Premium58:31 - Market Divergence: "Crocodile Jaws"1:01:47 - Final Thoughts & Looking Ahead to January1:04:49 - Closing Remarks & DisclaimerDOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECKhttps://spotgamma.com/opexMORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMAhttps://www.spotgamma.comFOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTERhttps://twitter.com/spotgammaFOLLOW JACK ON TWITTERhttps://twitter.com/practicalquant | |||
| Tesla, Trump and the Return of Meme Mania | Inside the Flows Driving the Post Election Rally | 13 Nov 2024 | 01:04:46 | |
In this episode of The OpEx Effect, we dive deep into the fascinating market dynamics following the recent election and explore the remarkable surge in options trading volume. We break down how Tesla's impressive rally is being driven by options flows and explain the mechanics behind gamma squeezes.We explore several key themes, including:How the post-election volatility crush led to a significant market rallyWhy Tesla has become the premier "Trump trade" and what the options flows tell us about its momentumThe current state of meme stocks and the return of familiar faces like Cathie WoodWhy the upcoming NVIDIA earnings could be a major catalyst for the broader marketWhat dealer positioning and options skew tell us about potential year-end movesThroughout our discussion, we emphasize our core thesis that "flows over fundamentals" is increasingly driving market action, especially as options trading volume continues to hit new records. We also touch on our outlook for the crucial December OpEx period and share our thoughts on why the current rally may have more room to run despite stretched valuations in certain names.Join us for an in-depth conversation that combines technical analysis, market structure insights, and practical implications for long-term investors. DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECKhttps://spotgamma.com/opexMORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMAhttps://www.spotgamma.com | |||
| Calm Before the Storm or Fuel for a Rally? | Inside Options Flows Heading into the Election | 16 Oct 2024 | 01:03:08 | |
In this episode of the OPEX Effect, we take a look behind the scenes at options flows at what is going on in the options market as we head into the election. We cover:- The current options landscape leading into October expiration- How NVIDIA's performance continues to drive broader market trends- Analysis of volatility patterns and their implications for market movement- Detailed exploration of potential market reactions to the upcoming U.S. election- The mechanics behind post-election volatility crush and its effect on stock prices- Comparisons to previous election cycles and lessons learned- Discussion of the JP Morgan collar trade and its market influence- Insights on interpreting options flow data to anticipate market movesWhether you're an options trader, long-term investor, or simply interested in understanding market forces, this episode provides valuable perspectives on how options expiration and major events like elections can shape market behavior. Brent and Jack break down complex concepts into digestible insights, offering both technical analysis and practical takeaways for navigating the current market environment. SPOTGAMMA'S NEW PRODUCT - TRACE THE MARKEThttps://spotgamma.com/trace-the-market-excess-returns/?aff=ExcessDOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECKhttps://spotgamma.com/opexMORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMAhttps://www.spotgamma.comFOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTERhttps://twitter.com/spotgammaFOLLOW JACK ON TWITTERhttps://twitter.com/practicalquant | |||
| What Regular Investors Need to Know About Options Flows | Brent Kochuba | 18 Sep 2024 | 01:03:14 | |
In this episode, we dive deep into the world of options and their impact on market dynamics. We start with an "Options Dealer Flows 101" primer, explaining key concepts like delta hedging, gamma, charm, and vanna to help viewers understand how options flows can drive stock prices. We then analyze the current market situation heading into the September 2024 options expiration, one of the biggest of the year. We explore the outsized influence of Nvidia options activity, discuss potential outcomes from the upcoming FOMC meeting, and examine how bond-equity correlations are shifting. We break down why understanding options flows is crucial even for long-term investors who don't trade options themselves. Using real-world examples, we illustrate how options positioning can create market volatility and reversals around key dates. Whether you're an options trader or just want to better understand what's moving markets, this episode provides valuable insights into the hidden forces shaping stock prices. Join us as we unpack the complex world of options and their far-reaching effects on the broader market. SPOTGAMMA'S NEW PRODUCT - TRACE THE MARKET https://spotgamma.com/trace-the-market-excess-returns/?aff=Excess DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK https://spotgamma.com/opex MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA https://www.spotgamma.com FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/spotgamma FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/practicalquant | |||
| Behind the Scenes of the Recent Market Volatility | The OPEX Effect Ep. 11 | 13 Aug 2024 | 01:01:36 | |
In this episode of OPEX Effect, we dive into the recent market volatility and its connection to options flows. We discuss the sudden VIX spike to 65, examining the factors that led to this extreme event, including low liquidity, the unwinding of correlation trades, and the impact of zero-day options. We explore how the market landscape has shifted, with a focus on the transition from inter-equity correlation to a broader bonds versus equities perspective. We also analyze the current options positioning and its implications for future market movements, particularly in light of upcoming economic data releases and events like Jackson Hole. Throughout the episode, we emphasize the importance of understanding options flows and market dynamics to make more informed investment decisions in these volatile times. DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK https://spotgamma.com/opex MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA https://www.spotgamma.com FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/spotgamma FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/practicalquant
| |||
| 7000 Magnet. 6800 Trap Door | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next | 13 Dec 2025 | 01:09:40 | |
In this episode of The Opex Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba break down what could be the largest options expiration ever and explain why December options flows, seasonality, and volatility dynamics matter so much for markets right now. The conversation explores how AI enthusiasm, equity rotation, and record options volume are colliding into year end, and what the options market is signaling about near term risk, upside, and potential turning points. From zero DTE trading and volatility suppression to the Santa Claus rally, JP Morgan’s collar trade, and the implications for stocks, small caps, and value, this episode offers a detailed look at how derivatives are shaping market behavior beneath the surface. Topics covered:
Timestamps: | |||
| The Two-Tailed Risk Trap | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next | 15 Nov 2025 | 01:09:05 | |
In this month’s OPEX Effect, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand break down the forces driving markets into November expiration. They cover the surge in volatility, Nvidia’s critical earnings event, the clustering of major catalysts, the behind-the-scenes hedging flows that shape price action, and why this expiration looks fundamentally different from the recent call-heavy cycles. The conversation blends macro uncertainty, options positioning, single-stock fragility, and the psychology of navigating markets that feel worse than they look. Topics Covered: Timestamps: | |||
| Fragile Rally. Big Vol Spike. Credit Risks Rising | What the Options Market Says About What's Next | 19 Oct 2025 | 01:15:03 | |
In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand to break down the October options expiration and the surge in volatility that hit markets. They discuss record-breaking options volumes, the impact of zero-DTE trading, Trump’s market-moving tweet, and why the options market is increasingly driving short-term price action. Brent explains how positioning, gamma dynamics, and liquidity flows combine to create instability — and what that might mean for volatility into year-end. Topics covered: Timestamps: | |||
| Vol Is Crushed. Risk Isn’t | What the Largest OPEX In History Tells Us About What Comes Next | 14 Sep 2025 | 00:57:27 | |
In this month’s OPEX Effect, Brent and Jack break down the September OPEX, which may be the largest ever. With volatility deeply suppressed, a record call skew, and the Fed meeting coinciding with VIX expiration, markets are set up for potential fireworks. The conversation explores how derivatives flows shape equities, why this expiration could be a turning point, and what investors should watch around key levels like 6,500. Topics Covered
Timestamps | |||
| Low Volatility Is Lying to You | What the Options Market Says About What Comes Next | 09 Aug 2025 | 01:05:21 | |
In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack and Brent dive deep into the current market dynamics, exploring what they call the "Honey Badger" and "Zombie" market phenomena. With options volumes hitting record highs and realized volatility at basement levels, they analyze whether we're heading into a 2017-style low-volatility grind or if a volatility spike is imminent. The discussion covers everything from the latest options positioning data to the impact of zero-DTE trading on market behavior, providing valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
| |||
| All-Time Highs. Record Complacency | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next | 14 Jul 2025 | 01:00:24 | |
Markets are sitting at all-time highs, but under the surface, the options market is flashing signs of extreme positioning. In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma returns to break down the latest options expiration cycle and what it could mean for stocks going forward. We discuss why record call buying, minimal hedging, and low implied volatility are creating a potentially fragile setup — and why upcoming events like CPI, VIX expiration, and tariffs could act as catalysts. Whether you're a long-term investor or a short-term trader, this conversation offers a deeper look at how positioning, dealer flows, and volatility pricing impact market behavior. Topics covered include:
| |||
| A Rally Built on Fragile Ground | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next | 15 Jun 2025 | 00:59:28 | |
In the latest episode of the OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba dive deep into the dynamics shaping the current market regime, with a particular focus on the upcoming June OPEX, dealer positioning, volatility trends, and the surprising resilience of the S&P 500 amid geopolitical stress. They break down how options flows continue to dominate equity price action, why the market remains pinned despite negative news, and what might finally break the calm. With some of the largest options expirations in history on deck, this is a must-watch for anyone following volatility, hedging flows, and macro signals. 💡 Topics Covered: Why volatility often contracts before OPEX and expands after The significance of the June 2025 OPEX as potentially the largest ever Dealer gamma, hedging flows, and what they signal about near-term volatility Why implied vol is so low despite major geopolitical risk (e.g. Israel-Iran conflict) The JP Morgan collar trade and its influence on the 5,900 level in the S&P How zero-DTE options impact market stability and risk signaling A potential regime shift: AI stocks, “taco trades,” and declining liquidity What vol metrics like VIX, VVIX, and correlation are really saying The hidden risk of overconfidence when markets ignore bad news Breakdown of sector-specific volatility expectations (tech, energy, gold, Bitcoin) | |||